Why EVs Aren't The GreenTech Panacea || Peter Zeihan
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 1 มิ.ย. 2024
- When the major auto manufacturers start changing their EV plans, it's probably a sign something's not quite right. For all those who think they're better than everyone else because they drive a Tesla, this video is for you...
Full Newsletter: mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-evs-are...
Where to find more?
Donate to MedShare: www.medshare.org/zukraine/
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/3NyQu4l
Subscribe to the TH-cam Channel: bit.ly/3Ny9UXb
Listen to the Podcast: spoti.fi/3iJyNEe
Zeihan on Geopolitics website: zeihan.com/
Purchase the Global Outlook Webinar Here: bit.ly/3xBvRxd
Where to find me on Social Media?
Twitter: bit.ly/3E1E95D
LinkedIn: bit.ly/3zJAW8b
Instagram: bit.ly/3IW2mgp
Facebook: bit.ly/3ZIAjHk
#evs #electricvehicle #tesla
![[TH] 2024 PMSL SEA GF D2 | Summer | ร่วมส่งแรงใจ เชียร์ไทยไปพร้อมกัน](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/dN2gLsCJ0T0/mqdefault.jpg)
I'm an engineer who works for the electric company and I can tell you the cost and system upgrades needed to support charging stations is huge. Our electric bills are going to go up substantially. We are talking reconductoring miles of distribution, adding additional capacitor banks and regulators, as well as very large transformers. All of which have very long lead times. Some transformers have lead times in years now. That's the good news. Bad news is when we need to build out all new circuits, but the substation is maxed out so now we need to purchase new land, add new substation transformers and build new transmission lines. If anyone is looking for a good paying job, come join the electric industry.
Edit: I should have clarified. I was mainly talking about charging stations in terms of gas station like facilities where there are dozens of chargers. Not necessarily residential home chargers.
You forgot production. Whos gonna produce all that power? This aint going anywhere until Fusion becomes viable.
Re transformers, I once read these are made in 3 countries: China, Germany, and S. Korea. True?
In the context of a CME blowing transformers up, I had heard before COVID that if our power grid blew from one, it'd be the transformers that go and they already were a years long wait list. Or was it that it would be years long because of the quantity needed? I think there may have been concern about being able to run the factories that make them at all.
I’m also in this industry and what you say is truth
We have some property here in Kentucky that we’re going to build our retirement home on. Getting grid tied power to the site is proving to be such a hassle that we started looking into an off grid system. Based on the low end estimates of boring and trenching for lines, we can get 3 Tesla powerwalls and enough solar panels to charge them. Once vehicle to load becomes a thing we could do it with even less powerwalls. Based on our mileage app, we could drive an average low end electric vehicle for 5 days before recharging. Based on the high end estimates of running the power lines, the off grid system and 2/3 of the car would be free. And we’d save $3000 a year on gas and electric bills.
I am a retired engineer who is fascinated with new technologies. I drive a Tesla Model Y and love it. They aren't for everyone but if you have a garage and a home charging solution they are economical to own. I did not buy it to save the planet.
couldn't agree more and saving the planet wasn't even on my mind when I purchased mine a few years ago.
This!
Agree. Same setup here. Additionally, EVs benefit society by better resource management. Electric motors are more efficient per unit of energy so over the lifetime there’s less waste so that hydrocarbons can be used for other industries.
@@DioscuriA85 Better resource management? You didn't listen to this podcast did you? All those minerals in the vehicle I would argue is worse resource management (mining, refining those added minerals plus the energy required for that). Still needs power and it's already been shown renewable energy won't do the job if everyone has to own one (where the current administration and liberal policies are).
How do you feel about Elon just slashing the retail prices by 20% (again). And therefore trashing the re-sale value for the Tesla's owners, that bought before the price reduction?
Systems Engineer here. Exotic materials aside, there’s not enough copper production! A study was recently done that revealed half the world’s current copper production would be needed just for the UK to go all electric. (You need lots of copper for all those EV motors. It takes decades to bring new copper mines on line.
Oh no! Common sense! Who woulda thunk?
My former workplace colleague once owned a Nissan Leaf electric SUV. He praised it to me. It was a lovely electric vehicle. But later on he exchanged it for a gasoline Nissan SUV. He admitted to me he suffered from, "electric car recharging anxiety". It wasn't easy for him to find recharging stations. Often other people were using up the electric charging stations. He was always concerned about running out of electric charge at the wrong place and wrong time. He finally gave in and gave up, going back to gasoline vehicles.
The real world range of a Nissan Leaf is about 90 miles. Definitely NOT the EV someone should drive if they don’t want range anxiety.
One of the supermarkets in town had to remove their tesla superchargers because the Tesla owners were clogging up their parking lots and the street waiting for their turn.
He hasn't heard of Tesla, I guess.
His mistake was not that he bought an EV. It was that he didn’t buy a Tesla. Totally different ballgame.
@@emp0rizzle Haha, so we are supposed to believe Teslas are NOT growing in popularity? 🤣🤣
"A green who can do math" I hear you man.
From an engineering (my profession) point of view the optimum mix is gonna be a hybrid with a big enough battery for 80% of local trips typically under 20-30 miles here in the UK and e-fuels to fill in the highway and long trip demands that a battery is poor at. That's where I think we will end up. The power density and energy density, material and production costs, the thermodynamics all point to hybrids. And Toyota knew this back with the Prius.
Well as an engineer (I'm an M.E.), you know that the PHEV is a very complicated machine and a compromise in many aspects. The smaller battery can't generate much power without ICE assist. It will cycle faster, meaning it will wear out more quickly. Thermodynamics? Uh do explain. If we're talking Carnot cycle limitations, EVs win hands down. Regular hybrids (Prius) recover braking energy, which is substantial, but we need a path to 0 GHG emissions.
@@iamalmostanonymous It's fairly complicated sure, mainly from a control systems and drivetrain packaging perspective but that seems to be going fairly well so far.
Yeah they should be mixed mode devices depending on the driving conditions. Otto cycle engine is never going to be more efficient than a power plant turbine feeding a 90odd% efficient motor, but with current battery tech the specific energy is around 150kWh/kg or in real units 540kJ/kg. Compared to carbon fuels at 44MJ/kg it's nearly a factor of 100 away. As such EVs haul around nearly a metric tonne of batteries, hugely material and cost intensive, and with finite lifecycle.
At urban speeds batteries have a huge edge over ICE where a huge amount of energy is dissipated in braking rather than work travelling, and regen is absolutely king here, essential that regen is pushed to the absolute limits of technology for BEV and PHEV. But you don't need an 800kg battery to drive round town. This is where a hybrid system gets you the range and the additonal power where needed for acceleration. To fuel a hybrid at 0GHG you need synthetic carbon neutral fuels and a comprehensive nuclear program to generate them. Store your nuclear power in synthetic fuel at 100x the specific energy and have smaller, lighter, efficient vehicles that use every drop of energy created from their ICE to offset the cost. I would imagine the overall efficiency of an ICE passenger car is under 10% maybe even 5% in real world driving, there's no reason that shouldn't be nearer the 25% the engine produces to offset the increased cost of literalling making fuel out of thin air. It's the only way I see the passenger car surviving as we know it. BEVs are expensive for the average road user.
@@someoftheyouse hydrocarbon fuel is not 44 MJ/kg. That's the potential energy of fuel. You also need to factor in the mass of oxygen (which I'll ignore) and the average engine efficiency (15%). Ballpark is in the 6 MJ/kg range. Newer chemistries are around 300 wh/kg, which is ~ 1 MJ/kg. Now we're down to a 7x difference or less using 90% EV motor efficiency. Additional weight savings from ICE drivetrain makes these weights comparable. Compare a Tesla Model 3 to BMW 3 series and they are close in weight. As far as finite cycle, we're looking at 200K miles today, maybe 500K plus with LiFePO4 and improving.
"But you don't need an 800kg battery to drive round town." You also don't need the engine, trans, and fuel if we're just talking about around town with PHEV. For efficiency, weight really isn't a big factor with EVs because of regeneration. The weight penalty is motor/generator efficiency times weight diff. Objects in motion stay in motion ...
"synthetic carbon neutral fuels and a comprehensive nuclear program to generate them" - this is really cool, but pretty out there. I'm not aware of any carbon neutral fuel anywhere near cost effectiveness. Nuclear is a topic of its own. Nearly unlimited energy with the pesky little radioactive waste issue where every solution seems to have a gotcha. We definitely need to keep pursue nuclear, but I'm not aware of a great design yet.
ICE seems antiquated after using an EV. The shaking, delay, noise, exhaust gases, heat all seem primitive. As to costs, BEVS have dropped significantly and have plenty of room to go. Their TCO is projected to drop below ICE in 2025, and some argue cars like Model 3 are already lower than competitors.
@@iamalmostanonymous Yeah the specific energy of a fuel is the heat of combustion per unit mass of the fuel, oxygen you don't carry around. Same difference. I already made most of those points regarding efficiency. 15% is pretty low these days, 20-25 would be fairer. And no amount of clever chemistry is gonna close a 7x gap, not even close. I would love to see a 7x or 10x improvement in battery chemistry, that would be awesome, but I don't see where that's gonna come from in the foreseeable future.
Synthetic carbon fuels are inevitable because the aviation industry requires them to decarbonise for the about specific energy reasons (and I invite you to run the numbers on a the power requirements of a twin engine passenger jet vs the mass of battery that takes for a 10 hour flight). The only way to make synthetic carbon fuels affordable is with abundant and demand-responsive power, and the only way to have that power is nuclear. PVs and wind are good, but in the UK here its often cloudy and still, so then what? We do plenty of uphill reactions already its just a matter of getting the process and economies of scale down.
I think this last paragraph is most salient, you like your BEV, and that's fine I don't wanna stop you having one. I just don't think it's right for everyone and I think the cost of a battery that large makes it a resource intensive luxury. Hydrocarbon fuels are king of energy density and specific energy. Hydrogen is too volumous and difficult to store and everything else is heavier per joule. No need to reinvent the wheel, just figure out how to make it a closed loop renewable rather than digging up soupy dinosaurs. Cost wise I estimate 80% of brits drive a car that cost less than 20k and 40% less than 10k (that's including used car sales). A Tesla with 100k miles on it is still 20k here, a comparable BMW is about 7k.
Good chat, but I'm done. Cheers.
@@someoftheyouse "And no amount of clever chemistry is gonna close a 7x gap, not even close" - Not conceding this. Silicon can hold 10x as much lithium as graphite, and several companies have made progress towards silicon anodes. Lithium anodes offer similar or better energy density. These may not be viable for some time, but they highlight the theoretical potential of li-ion batteries. That said, we don't need a 10x improvement. A 2x - 3x improvement would be huge. Same vehicles already have an acceptable weight - a Tesla Model 3 weighs about the same as a BMW 3 Series.
Agree aviation is much more difficult than automobiles. Electric plans may work, but won't compete with jets on speed and range. However, their fuel cost would be much lower, possibly reducing the cost of flying - fuel is the majority of flight cost. "abundant and demand-responsive power, and the only way to have that power is nuclear." - That would be worth celebrating on its on, but also make electrified transportation even more appealing. On nuclear, I don't think economies of scales is the issue, but red tape (I used to work at power plants - I'm a mechanical engineer). There are certainly some inefficiencies that could be eliminated, but the red tape will remain as long as we have the nuclear waste problem.
I think we diverge in opinions on the last point. I do not think it is possible to burn and capture carbon at scale and there are no other viable options on the table. The ability to store energy, be it chemical or physical is key to moving towards a sustainable future. It's insane that we try to produce all power on demand, but we haven't had an economical method for storage to date. That's changing with falling battery prices, spawning an accelerating number of grid storage projects. This grid storage in turn enables an increasing amount of variable and near 0 margin cost energy sources like wind and solar. "just figure out how to make it a closed loop renewable" - yes, that's what grid storage enables.
An important point about battery resources. The materials used in EVs and batteries such as copper, nickel, lithium, and aluminum are very much recyclable. Once a full transition is complete, there will be very little demand for new material. These, being basic elements, are infinitely recyclable.
"cost of a battery that large makes it a resource intensive luxury" - I think this deserves its own address. Batteries are 10x cheaper than they were 10 years ago and are continue to fall in price and increase in durability, utility, and safety. This is important since we are discussing future paths, not just current state. Living in Europe, things are less spread out. Electric bicycles and other small, inexpensive electric vehicles are a new phenomenon that could transform transportation for the better.
As to cost, used car sales are difficult to gauge. I found a a 2018 Model 3 with 54K miles for $10K and a 2019 with 100k for $20K. BMW 3 series around 2018 with 100K were around $15k. The most subjective cost gauge is new 5 year TCO. Again we're talking about future paths and most analysis I've seen have EVs surpassing ICE on TCO by 2025.
Something we haven't addressed explicitly is the urgency of action. I generally go by the IPCC assessments, and they are clear that the time to begin transitioning away from fossil fuels was 30 years ago. That's why I'm not a fan of stop-gap solutions. These are difficult and complex problems, no doubt and it's counter-productive to ask the impossible of people. But their should be a sense of urgency in promoting R&D and implementation of solutions to reduce and eliminate the world's GHG emissions.
The hats just keep getting better.
I think he changes it for our benefit 😆
Never the same one twice ??. Sponsored by hats are us,😂
This one is from the Whoopi Goldberg collection.
I am here just for the hats, don’t even know what he is talking about.
The designer of this one is Mr. Clean.
Here in Quebec we have something like 95% hydroelectricity with a bit of wind/solar in the mix, so yes, it is possible somewhere. And electric cars still sell enough for the dealers to have waiting lists
Yes I was going to say the same. In the UK, one can get certified green power (NB power and not just energy). Volvo and other manufacturers are being quite open about embedded energy cost too. I'd also question his commentary on industrial capacity to get enough copper etc. - our economies are very very good at extracting what the market demands - and the questions of range anxiety and charging stations/cost of charging. These latter are becoming quite manageable and economical in places like the UK; you can do pretty much any journey you need on an EV. Before anyone denounces me as a blind green, my company still burns some 3m litres of diesel per year - and our trucks won't convert from diesel for a while yet - but we are looking very seriously at EVs for our sales fleet.
I’m an old school guy that drives an 1951 GMC half ton pickup, it has no gizmos to go wrong, the only thing to plug in is the cigarette lighter I installed, since restoration I’ve been driving it for eight years now and the only thing I’ve had to fix was the water pump. It getting about 10-12 mpg with its small 283 cid starts every time, I’m not sure the EV vehicle is for everyone, but its a niche market for sure. I wish all the owners of them the best of luck, but it would be nice to see one driving around at 72 years old.
Most folks have no use for an antique. I don't miss carbs, rear-wheel drive, 1950s steering and suspensions, etc. Your old pickup is an even bigger unicorn than a Tesla.
@@Alexi7666 I never had a problem with a carb that I couldn't fix. Kits for that were quite inexpensive. Rear-wheel drive works well on most days. On my first new car I eventually upgraded the steering with power steering from a salvage car in a junk yard, and only because I got tired of banging my elbow on the ceiling when I needed to maneuver into a tight parking place. I know that fully independent rear suspension is better in theory but many people drive pickup trucks with the same suspension they had in the fifties.
@@namvet_13e : I have a 1990 GMC 4X4 half ton with a 350 motor. It's slow and sucks gasoline to the tune of, maybe, 18 mpg on flat ground at 55 mph. But, it's a great firewood hauler. Rusty enough that I don't worry about paint damage while back in the woods.
If it works for you and your needs, I'm super happy for you. But "it has no gizmos to go wrong"?😅 ... it's an internal combustion vehicle with around 2000 moving parts. I'd say that's plenty of "gizmos" that could "go wrong". Maybe we just have different definitions of that word though.
As a counterpoint to my pickup...my '18 Toyota Camry(3.5L V-6) is plenty quick, governed to 131 mph, will get 35-36 mpg cruising@80 mph(A/C off) and has decent handling. Being a Toyota, it's gizmos will never go wrong.
I drive a small, second hand EV. A first generation Nissan Leaf with relatively low mileage. I use it for 90% of my journeys, which are local and under 50kms. I charge it directly from a small array of solar panels. When I rarely need to go on longer journeys, I take my 30 year old Mercedes 190d. I probably average 2-3000 kms per year in the Mercedes. I can't afford a new Tesla or a new Mercedes diesel, but wouldn't want either, even if I could. I honestly believe my set up is the most sustainable solution for me personally and for the environment.
When are you going to replace the Leaf's batteries? Is it possible? How much does it cost?
Again, it's not scalable.
Old cars are the best environmentally
Where do you put the solar panels when someone is living in an apartment or renting a house like most people do?
@@PackBjammini have a simmilar car, the battery life is longer than 10 years.
Jamiroquai is a complete petrol sports car enthusiast so glad to see Peter wear this hat in tribute
EVs are still evolving. Once Sodium Ion batteries are widely available the equation will change. I've been driving my Leaf for my 55 mile round trip work communte for more than six years now. My gas savings has more than paid for the car. Near zero maintenance and the only thing I've "repaired" is to replace the 12V battery once. EVs aren't the end all be all but in the right application they are really hard to beat.
same here, cost savings can be huge if you can charge at home
It doesn't matter how good the batteries are. An internal combustion engine converts chemical energy to mechanical energy at an efficiency level which is, admittedly not very good, but that's thermodynamics for you). An EV uses energy initially generated at a power plant which normally burns coal or natural gas (chemical to mechanical energy conversion and then mechanical to electrical energy conversion). The electricity is sent to your home and charges the battery in your EV (electrical to chemical energy conversion). Your EV converts the chemical energy in the battery to electrical energy and then into mechanical energy. Each and every energy conversion results in loss of efficiency as energy is lost in the form of heat. Any first year physics student knows this.
For now. Imagine if everyone were charging a vehicle at night including freight haulers etc. The math suggests it will remain a niche for a very long time. It is also a warning to producers not to trust seductive government subsidies (written up by 26 yr old grad students in cubicles).
@@iasimov5960 Sorry, your data is incorrect. Study more. 😊
Do you ever go on road trips? Most of my family lives over 1,000 miles from me and we live road trips more than flying. Ironically, EV's push road trip times back to the wooden wagon days.
Put this into perspective as well, here in Oz cars and small trucks only account for 8% of our carbon emissions, as a contrast cement manufacture contributes 13%.
Oh, that's also a big NO, That is a big lie, CO2 mostly from fossil fuel based power plants, including cars. Concrete become a bogie man when some other industry wanted to make a step . Rember : It's Toasted ,everyday else's is poisonous
Here in Salt Lake, funding was finally put together to study what’s been contributing to horrific air quality over the past few years. About 60% is automobiles while another 30% is the oil refineries, and 10% to miscellaneous causes. In other words, 90% of the smog which has reached Beijing levels of pollutants is contributed by cars or processes creating the fuel for cars.
Meanwhile I power my car with the sun. Solar panels are everywhere here. It can be done. At some point there’s a premium on air quality.
How did Norway go 80% electric if this is so difficult? They subsidized, but they also charge their cars throughout winter.
Hi, a Norwegian here. EV’s are heavily subsidized, have been for over 20 years. ICE vehicles and petrol/diesel are heavily taxed, among the most expensive in the world. The charging network have also been built up covering much of the country. It just makes economic sense for most people to buy EV’s. I understand the situation is very different elsewhere though.
Because of Norwegian exceptionalism. Norway also has colossal amounts of hydroelectricity so its electricity grid is one of the greenest on the planet - something like 90% of its electricity comes from hydro. It also has vast revenues from oil and gas extraction and it has the cash to systematically and heavily subsidise EV sales and ownership, which it has done for years. Needless to say, not much of this is replicable to much larger economies like Germany, the UK or Japan.
Because Norway is a rjch petrostate with a fairly low population that can afford subsidizing a few million EVs? Most of the people live in the south around Oslo, Trondheim, and Bergen, so you can cast a pretty wide net and cover almost everyone with a charging network.
Also several non-subsidy ones such parking advantages and being allowed to drive in the faster moving urban bus lanes. The enticements were so good they proved to be quite costly and the gov't has been rolling them back.
Isn’t Norway the richest country in the world per capita? That might explain a lot.
"Total EV sales in Q3, according to an estimate from Kelley Blue Book, hit 313,086, a 49.8% increase from the same period one year ago and an increase from the 298,039 sold in Q2." -- Cox Automotive
The resource limits are real, however, as long as we use 4000 lb machines to move a 175 lb human.
Still waiting for good electric motorcycles 😅
@@KRACHDUFEget an e-bike
or, a 110 lb human...or a 300 lb human. Oh, I see, you averaged it out due to the fatass population! 👍
Jes , Peter zeihan May be a smart guy but to be an Expert in everithing is Hard.
GW per day .... if someone says Things like this , then one should be Taken with a big grain of Salt!
That hat should be worn with those red glasses he has. It would really pop.
My Maryland home solar panels have been producing 14 Megawatts of electricity per year for 6 years, and just are passed my breakeven point for there cost. I charge my Ford Mach e EV (mostly for local driving but have used DC Fast chargers for two trips from Maryland to Michigan and back with no DC charging issues) and Ford Fusion PHEV, and still produce a surplus of electricity that I get a small check for each year for my surplus.
My 10 year old 2013 Nissan LEAF used to have a range of 85 miles on a good day. Now its range is 43 miles on a good day, literally half. Basically if I drive 12 miles away, the care will be panicking about low battery level before I get home. My friend bought a 2011 LEAF when it first came out, and sold it a few months ago for $1200, because its range was even lower than mine. I wish I had bought a small gas car instead.
Will replacing the battery bring it back up to 85 mi? How much does that cost?
The leaf was a gen 0 EV. They made some massive errors like no cooling system on the motor and battery. This literally cooked the battery.
Tesla went with a small cooling system from day one and sees 300K miles plus on their batteries and much further than that on motors.
@@williambarry8015 Yes, tho it is very expensive, and you can't get new batteries. There is a place in my area that takes batteries from totaled LEAFs, and can replace my battery with one of those, but it is not cheap. The price varies, depending on the range of the salvaged battery, and last I checked, prices ranged from around $8000 to $12000... quite a price to pay to upgrade a 10+ year old car that is only worth around $3000.
There are independent EV shops that can transplant the latest 220 mile Leaf battery even into the oldest Leafs now. Just depends on how much you like you existing car. Alternatively your battery is an easy swap same gen battery to same gen battery. A shop can do the work in under an hour with a lift. I've been inside those batteries. They are fine for L1/L2 charging. They are not well suited to fast charging. With L1/L2 charging and even hot weather use the battery design is adequate and will not overheat under normal use. There are some great TH-cam videos that discuss the different generations of these batteries. They changed the battery chemistry along the way to improve power density and longevity so the newer batteries are much better than they were in the early cars but remember, you could retrofit your car if you wanted to. A little knowledge goes a long way.
@@joeaveragerwouldn't that cost way more than a 2011 Nissan leaf since his buddy just let go of his for $1200? It's Like changing the battery on an iPhone 4. You could do it but why?
Great video. As an engineer, I’ve been describing the EV issues you brought up for years. I own an EV an they only make sense if you use them for commuting, can charge at home and can charge off peak overnight.
Might make some sense (if you look at it from the right angle) on a personal level for some individuals. But Peter's point is that it's not scalable.
"they only make sense if you use them for commuting, can charge at home and can charge off peak overnight."
Erm that's an awful lot of vehicles fitting that use case. Far from everyone, but still an awful lot of vehicles.
And if you never plan to take them on long trips. Don’t count on renting an ICE car in the future since all the rental companies use newer cars, there eventually won’t be any new ICE cars.
In Colorado, "peak" is going to be overnight in a couple months, so the "cheap" will be during the morning, not the evening. Probably "fixable" if you can put a timer on your charger.
@@davidpnewton Particularly in the US where the majority lives in single-family houses with a garage! That is the point of EVs - you hardly ever bring them to a charging station, you charge them like a smartphone - usually at home, usually overnight. And then you suddenly don't need _any_ new charging infrastructure beyond wall boxes. For roadtrips you do need high power DC charging stations at highway stops, but they won't be charging more than 10% of typical EV usage and are therefore at manageable powers, comparable to, idk, a supermarket? That is how Norway manages to not build out more infra with 90% EV sales for years. EVs in fact stabilize the grid, because they charge off-peak, increasing utilization factor of the powerplants.
A couple of points I would add. In the UK we are seeing issues around insurance costs for EVs. Repair costs for EVs can be high and vehicles are being written off as the condition of the batteries after a collision is unknown. Personally I have always thought a more pragmatic approach was hybrid vehicles. Make a hybrid that can do 50-60 miles on pure electric and you will cover 90% of journeys (certainly in the UK). For those occasions where a longer range is needed the ICE takes over. To me this offers a huge environmental benefit without trying to convert the whole fleet to pure EV and the associated challenges that brings.
I'm in the UK and I agree that perfecting hybrid vehicles would have made a lot more sense. Going on EV only is insane.
Check out Edison Motors trucking company in Canada. They built a diesel electric hybrid logging truck. Runs fully electric and then uses the diesel generator to recharge the battery in real time as needed.
And they've gotten a ton of interest from construction/utilities crews who want to be able to use that concept for their trucks so they can work in neighborhoods without the noise
100% agree. Until hydrogen is ready this is the best configuration.
The repair cost of a minor dent in the bed or quarter panel of a Rivian EV truck is $40,000. Idiots made the entire side of the vehicle from windshield to center of the rear bumper one piece.
Not only are EVs limited technology due to battery capacity, their esthetics were designed by idiots to be not be repairable at a reasonable cost.
mandating hybrids would have been a smarter intermediary that would have reaped immediate CO2 reduction with little to no pain.
One thing everyone forgets is that the dealerships do not want EVs. Most of the money they make is on warranty repairs and in the service department in general. EV don’t require the intense servicing and therefore there a huge loss of profit. Also, like it or not the dealership mafia throughout, the country runs the show. Because they heavily influenced the state legislatures.
There's no intense servicing on electric vs gas. At least not new vehicles. The only difference in the first 100,000km is oil changes. Both cars have brakes, tires, suspension, coolant, etc. a dealer can make lots of money still
@@DaDaDo661 I did not make it up. Research it. Dealers do not want the burden of selling EV and they will lose money on servicing. The equipment, need for service and skilled personnel are different. Your average car dealer owner makes 1.5 - 3. Million they like the way things are.
@@DaDaDo661 Somehow you're forgetting spark plugs, air filters. Transmission oil should also be replaced at 30K miles. Throw in coolant as well.
And for the duration of the vehicle, you're talking significant maintenance as well such as replacing a radiator. Timing belts, starter, alternator.
Then you have potential issue with exhaust, fuel lines, fuel pump...
In other words you're full of it.
@@TopGunZero depends on the car big shooter. Most Japanese Vehicles don't call for spark plugs until 100k km. Most have timing chains and while you should replace the transmission fluid earlier, the book calls it "lifetime" fluid. So in most cases I'm right. Chief, buddy, pal, guy.
@@DaDaDo661 you’re mostly wrong sport
Zeihan is always happy to tell us we will need oil for evah
we do!
One correction. All cars are sitting on lots right now. Not just an EV issue, its a interest rate and overpricing issue
Massive respect for Mr Zeihan, but this feels very wide of the mark. EVs are massively in demand, only slowing due to macro-economics / interest rates. The tech is proven, and widely seen as better than combustion. Also, EVs produce FAR less emissions than combustion peers - including manufacturing, even if entirely powered by a fossil fuelled grid.
@@curioussentience4935 Yeah, its more like mediocre overpriced EVs are not selling. But the same can be said of ICE cars. He is right though. Adoption is still very very low to accomplish anything other than a few markets.
@curioussentience4935 Didn't Volvo state a couple years back that EV emissions, when including manufacturing, are around 70% HIGHER than their ICE counterparts?
Flat lie. EVs have more already-built but unsold vehicles on dealer lots than ANY other type of vehicles. About 100 days of supply as compared with Toyota hybrids that have 30 days of supply.
Yes! A video I was watching before this one, was a guy at dealerships showing the prices of Ram, Chevy and Ford. Some of the trucks were still on the lot six months after he shot a previous video. The cheapest trucks were in the $60,000 range from Chevy, and the most expensive were the Rams at $103,000- $130,000. Ford had a Raptor for $150,000! Prices have shot up 30% since 2020.
I rarely disagree with you, but on this you are off the mark. My two Teslas are the most reliable, easy to maintain and fun to drive vehicles I've ever owned in my 71 years. I loved the Porsches I've owned and miss the cockpit feel and sound of those amazing engines, but both my Teslas would blow the doors of them for a fraction of the cost of ownership. When the prices come down, which they are doing, the world will never look back.
The prices are not going to come down, because lithium keeps going up steadily.
I concur. How’s that kool aid taste btw.
Peter sounds a bit off on this one I agree. Perhaps he's gunning for some Big Oil $$$..?
We will need 20,000 YEARS of current Lithium mining output, just to meet those crazy 2035 goals. Just for the US!
Some people encounter a problem and complain about it being too hard.
Others see an opportunity to create a solution.
I think this video speaks to the absurdity of going primarily EV in next decade. Just electrical generation and distribution infrastructures alone are a rate limiting step that even Elon Musk can not sprinkle pixie dust on and resolve. But let’s say we wake up tomorrow and the US Congress is not a circus sideshow and passed a massive infrastructure bill to electrify America. Cable, transformers , and generators are made in China and elsewhere and China is struggling w current demand alone. Stay positive and embrace possibilities but there aren’t enough asteroid mining robots to make the transition from ICEs to EVs happen in under several decades.
@@jerseyboy8017 So we have Tony Seba vs RIG or Random Internet Guy. What are the odds?
@@jerseyboy8017 Norway is 27% electric cars and 90% of new cars are also electric. Why is USA lagging?
The regular car lots are full of cars too. It is hard at the prices to pay 8% on a car loan.
Yeah he totally ignored that when it's the main issue. Plus a lot of people would love to pay 8%, they're paying 12%+ due to less than ideal credit.
Like to get Tony Seba and Peter in the same room to discuss EVs.
That would be very interesting!
2:38 “not enough of the stuff on the planet,” almost rolled out of my chair laughing. Funny how exploration geology works, demand goes up, new resources are found. A red flag should be when a person lumps all metals and materials into one basket.
The breakeven on teslas for higher upfront environmental cost is 3 years average driving. Everything after is net emission savings. As the grid gets cleaner and supply chain more efficient this will only improve. Auto sales are down mostly due to economic worries and higher interest rates. The model 3 is now cheaper than it’s ICE equivalent. It’s also much much safer and you don’t breathe pollutants from your vehicle.
Of the ~20 vehicles I’ve owned in my life I like my Tesla the most. I’ve driven it all over the western United States. I don’t care if it costs more and I don’t care if it’s green.
same and 💯. ya’ll can keep your ICE cars that are slow af off the red light. See ya in my rear view mirror.
@@anotheryoutubechannel4809that's only until you need to recharge on a longer trip then your Tesla won't even be in the rear view mirror of an ice car.
I have 3 electric kick scooters, and 2 electric bicycles, now the time has come for the car. I don't care that where I live 60% of power comes from coal.
@@lesmotley6839 The latest Tesla chargers put out 100 miles of charge in 5 mins (so 200 miles in 10 mins...how fast can you run to the bathroom and back after 4 hours of driving?).
@@johncahill3644 have they got them everywhere? I've seen videos of dozens of Tesla's lining up for already full stations.
I was astonished when Zeihan said that EV's are unreliable. I've had a Nissan leaf since 2016 and it has never been to the shop.
i had an uncle who smoked 40 a day and lived to be 99. based on your logic, we can all light up. those pesky doctors. pffffft.
@@waldopepper4069 EV's should be more reliable in general, as they have much less moving parts, and electric motor's generally don't fail.
@@SavageArms357 yes, im sure they are. i suggest you buy a second one. no one else is buying them at the moment so im sure there are some great deals to be had.
Wait until you have to replace the battery. That will be an eye popping expense. We have a Tesla Model S and can expect to pay $20k+ for a new battery pack.
@@Tony-om5kr Aren't the batteries surprisingly long lasting?
Hello Peter, The Swedish company Northvolt is actively building a battery plant in Canada, and this facility will be powered exclusively by hydroelectricity. This strategic approach aims to significantly reduce overall fuel energy consumption within the project.
That's great. How many new hydroelectric generators are on the boards now? How many of them will provide electricity as soon as 5 years from now?
I live in Spain, where a large part of the electricity produced is generated by wind or solar. Got solar panels n my house and charge my Tesla for free, Four years driving it now with no one issue and great savings. Sales of EVs in Europe are going up fast (Norway being the #1). Many gaps in Peter discourse, but this is an important one. We do need to reduce drastically the pollution in the cities. In Spain last year around 30k people died from polluted air issues directly related to transportation emisions
I love my 2004 4Runner but also love driving my 2016 Tesla Model S. Just easy to drive and don’t miss the gas station. The Tesla rocks in snow with just basic all seasons. Hope it works..can’t see buying an ICE car ever again. Not for green reasons, just because it drives better.
Going Electric was the only way I know how to take charge of my energy costs for my family. I can produce my own electricity at my house with solar panels to charge a EV. I am tired of getting jerked around by oil companies over the years.
That was exactly my reasoning of getting solar and EVs at the same time!
Be sure to not have a grid tied system only. It costs more but you can have power when the grid goes down and in some EVs use your car as part of your home battery bank.
You're lucky you can afford solar panels, have enough sun, don't travel far, and don't want to tow, load up with a lot of weight, and don't want to trade in.
@@hkuiper100 Luck has nothing to do with it, hard work however does. Instead of just complaining about gas prices I decided to take action. It seems you have brought into the FUD about EV's, good luck with that.
@@nerfherder4284 I have Solar+Storage, if necessary I can completely disconnect from the grid and run my entire house.
Tesla has not announced "a significant draw down" of their global production capacity. Tesla will produce more vehicles in 2024 than 2023. Probably about 30% more.
and Tesla continues to turn a blind eye to Chinese manufacturers copying their corner cutting tech to the best of their ability while cutting even more corners with Chinese characteristics and producing patently dangerous vehicles.
Tesla is an EV company. It's all they do.
So electrical cars are powered by fossil fuels in reality. I was correct again. LOL
@@mgntstrWhat should Elon do? China would be more than happy to cut Elon out of their market. It's a pattern we've observed. Do you have a better strat than (what it seems to me Elon is doing) than playing nice with China and hoping for the best?
@@mgntstrand yet the Tesla Model Y is dominating in China (and worldwide) in both sales and margins (is which are higher than even gas vehicles from the likes of Toyota), and large Chinese auto-manufactures are facing big headwinds.
Our Chevy bolt EV is awesome .
$25,000 used model with only 5,000 miles on it.
Have put another 20,000 miles on it.
Great performance and range. Have never used public charging as we have exclusively charged at home at lower off peak rates. Fueling is only 25 percent of the cost of a fuel efficient gas vehicle.
We have a gas truck for road trips.
Sure EV’s ain’t for everyone but as your main vehicle if you can put in a home charger it makes a ton of economic sense.
To buy a $80,000 pickup gas guzzler to haul one person around is insane!
People argue against EV’s but when you look at their life choices you just have to shake your head!
Yet,you own a gas truck as well.
@@rjbiker66 YET we do over 90 percent of our mileage with the electric car.
YET we also have a self installed solar system for our home.
YET we use a bicycle for much of our local commuting and errands.
YET what do you do??
That’s great, but you’ll be absolutely shocked when you find out what its going to cost to replace the battery in your Volt. About 20k
You are viewed by my students daily during the week, and occasionally we watch your longer videos. I explain why you are making sense on so many topics. With that in mind, one student wanted to know where you got that great looking hat!! Honestly, I like it too.
Wait, wait. Did I hear an inaccurate statement for the first time in the year I've been consuming your work?!
"Not internal combustion cars, those lots are empty."
Unless I am missing some hidden source or we count internal combustion "cars" and "trucks" separately, the exact opposite is true.
Check the inventory numbers in North America, IC cars at 58 days inventory , EV's at 90
@@solman646658 days does not make those lots empty.
It's typical PZ hyperbole.
In the US, the Model Y starts at $32,890 after the $7500 tax credit. The Model 3 is only $28,400. And honestly, there's little reason to upgrade to the longer range/faster models in the US because of Tesla's huge charging network. So, that's a very realistic price. Now figure in the savings for NEVER HAVING TO FUEL and no annual maintenance. It hasn't 't always been the case, but right now buying a Tesla is the most economically sensible vehicle one can buy (in the US). That's assuming you can charge at home or work. If you have to rely on Superchargers, the math is less in favor of an EV.
I bought the base model 3 earlier this year as a third car. Just wanted to try out the EV experience. It is so far and above better than driving an ICE vehicle that my Mercedes and 4Runner never get driven anymore. The Model 3 is so quiet, high tech, comfortable, FAST, and oh yeah, I never have to put gas in it. Peter is so wrong about the future of EVs.
fHe's also wrong about China disappearing in seven more years. And lots of other stuff. But he does know geography.
Except the electricity isn't free...
Electricity is EV fuel.
EV's are heavier than comparable ICE vehicles and tend to wear out tires and suspension faster, maintenance costs are a wash. The fit and finish of Tesla is substandard compared to the industry, but if that is your preference, who am I to argue.
@@londen3547 Data show you are incorrect. Try driving and EV for 5 years and comparing maintenance costs. It is not even close to a "wash".
I agree completely. Peter is way off the mark with this video. If he took the time to properly research this topic, he would be singing a completely different tune.
If you can install sufficient solar panels at home and you can charge it at home it’s great for Commuting to work, short trips to The market or pickup kids at school, but long beyond a few hours drive it can be a hazle.We recently got a Toyota all
Electric and it’s awesome vehicle.
The "big sale" of EVs in many countries is generally to businesses that have profited from big subsidies. The general public was never really interested - not least of which because EVs are only economically interesting when you charge at home but many people are restricted to street parking. And now that subsidies in many countries have ended or are coming to an end, businesses are losing interest too...hence an significant drop in the sales of EVs
Peter, they are safer, roomier, faster, cheaper to run and maintain ( if you have a house with solar panels). I get your points but they are the iPhone and ice vehicles are the blackberries. Ford and Gm have a brand problem that's why they are not selling. Why is Tesla immune to these issues?
He just said that Tesla isn’t immune
My commute is 116 miles round trip five days a week. In the year before I bought my EV I spent almost $9k in gas.
My EV absolutely makes sense for me.
He’s simply saying it isn’t the way for the future your personal situation doesn’t really mean anything in terms of the bigger picture argument
Sounds good.
In California, a 22 mi per gallon car would spend about $6,800.in 30,000, mi on gas. Electric vehicle at 3mi. per kilowatt hour at 40 cents a kilowatt hour would spend about $5,000 a year.
Not really that much difference.
A 40 mile per gallon hybrid would approach the EV operating energy use.
Until you have to replace the battery.
I would say you have more of a life organisation issue rather than an EV issue. 116 miles daily commute is a terrible way to spend time and resources. I know it's not always possible or easy, but it's the first thing I would look into myself.
@@markrice41Don't buy a Nissan leaf(or any other manufacturer who doesn't properly cool a battery), and it should only lose a maximum of 10-15% range over the service life of the vehicle. Nissan is still making Leafs without batt. cooling hoping the consumer will embrace a disposable battery.
Great clip!
PHEV is the way to go I think. You have range when you need it and electric for short trips/ in town driving.
What happened to hybrid vehicles? How did we go from the internal combustion engine to 100% electric? What’s wrong with hybrid vehicles that still use gas, but significantly less.
Yeah like the new Orion’s which looks good. Impossible to buy one at sticker of $37K instead dealer asking 50K.
a diesel/electric hybrid vehicle is probably the best combo you could get because those two engines combined cover each other's drawbacks: electric is great while driving in high traffic urban areas but sucks on large distances because recharging is slow, while diesel sucks for driving in the city but it is great for driving long distances.
That's what I was thinking as well
🎯
You are right. Problem was that hybrids were only economically justifiable with small vehicles if kept for at least longer than 5 years. Recently, Toyota has been getting much more efficient with this on more models. Today the hybrid Corolla vs the pure ice Corolla is a no brainer. Only about $1500 extra and you will make that difference up in 2 years. I own a Prius for 14 years and still going, so I figured I'm about $10k ahead on gas vs having bought an ice Corolla at the time. Just recently bought the hybrid Corolla, and getting 10mpg more than my old Prius. Great thing is I paid $2k less than my Prius. I bought both brand new. Like I said no brainer, if economy and reliability and your main concerns. For luxury and size that is another story though. To each his own, but I'd rather have money in the bank. Down right amazing what Toyota has done to the mpgs of Sienna and Rav hybrids though.
The mines alone needed are huge.
cars will only be for the elites
Very interesting video. I learned a lot. Thanks.
As a lowly end-user, I am a fan of the concept of EV vehicles for day to day, fairly close to home driving. I am a HUGE fan of Lucid for designing, engineering, and execution of the Air. A BEAUTIFUL sedan with very very good range and, at the bottom of its range, semi-affordability. But, and there is always a but, it's the inconvenience of trying to find a high speed, or any charger if one is caught down on charge. This goes for all EV's. It's the infrastructure shortcomings. The same could be said 110yrs ago.
Then, there is the throw-away nature of current EV's. Once the battery is wiped out, what do you do? Batteries are IMMENSELY expensive to replace, and I dont see that changing at all. Tesla Model S has been around for an ETERNITY and the battery replacement cost is just prohibitive for us "commoners" while an ICE car, at 100,000+ miles, as long as it has been properly maintained is as strong of a runner as it was new. I'd much rather maintain my ICE car, a little here a little there, vs replacing a $10,000-$25,000 battery once in a used car that may have cost that much on the used car lot.
I worked for GM for over 30 years but I love my LRM3 Tesla and its dirt cheap to power as we have both solar panels and a cheap overnight tariff with our energy supplier. I do get the issue with the fire risk but fortunately our garage is separate from our house. I appreciate that us early adopters are paying more as competition will bring down pricing as demand grows but this evolution has to start somewhere.
The fire danger is way overblown. Most reported EV fires are actually hybrids.
You “early adopters” aren’t paying squat. “Competition” doesn’t really mean anything when the EV agenda is being forcibly subsidized by the taxpayer. And they haven’t even started to levy a per-mile road tax on you yet. Nah, like a mob boss, the government will get their cut out of you eventually. Right now you’re just getting the free sample.
If you know of any house set on fire because a Tesla was parked in the garage please let me know.
good bot
You believe solar panels are a cheap source of electricity? LOL.
Bought Model Y here. Love it. We use the slowest charger at home as we mostly put around locally, work from home. Saving a ton on gas, truly. It's perfection. (and it seems like every car here in our town is Tesla. Our neighbors never mention "range" and appreciate the safety most of all.) I love this channel and love Peter and his knowledge and wisdom but I mark this down in the "the iPhone you have now is the last one you'll have." column. Thank you Mr. Zeihan for every post you make... truly love all if it, recommend "The end of the world is just the beginning." to everyone.
That is still an electric tank.
The realistic solution is to go smaller and more shared electric transportation
What is your plan for when the grid goes down from the wildfire that is threatening your town?
@@clintstinkeye5607 I guess the plan is to normalize paying $5/gallon to transport liquefied dinosaur bones from deep in the earths crust from across the world and set it on fire so i can sootify the air I breathe.
@@clintstinkeye5607 Yea, or when them aliens attack or a BLM mobs come to yer neighborhood? Watcha gonna do?
Until you want to go out of town…
Well said. But you’ve forgotten one of the biggest downsides, the absurdly long charging times which makes long trips difficult.
Great channel, surprised I didn’t find it til now
Sold my two ICE vehicles and replace them with two PHEVs. Ninety percent of my driving is all electric, charged by the solar I installed, and the hybrid trips save me from any range anxiety. Once my daughter is out of college, she gets one and I finally get my first EV. I am hoping, like many, for better battery chemistry and range by then.
If you can, start with solar. Get rid of power and fuel price anxiety. Mine is just about 120% of prior use, so that I have capacity to convert to electric everything. There is a battery. I would like to increase my capacity, but the power company is my backup battery, and they buy my solar credits.
Great information for the very few with that much spare capital laying around...I guess. 🙄
I would add to that that driving an EV is much more comfortable (in a city) because of the almost silent driveing and no gear. I took a different approach with a small EV for city driving and an old diesel family vehicle that we use when going on longer trips at the week-end. There is zero maintenance cost (I don't even have to change the breaks) apart tires.
If I get a new car soon, thinking about plug in hybrid, have enough long distance trips that I worry about doing them in a full ev but 99% of my trips would be within like 10-20 miles.
@@Nashvillain10SE the tax credits for the solar and first car paid off the first car. The loan on the solar equals my past electric bills. So if electricity costs go up, I am not affected. Leverage was the answer. I am not sure that things would work as well with today’s interest rates, admittedly.
Children like your daughter mined the material needed for the motor and battery in your EV. Green tech
What would have Peter Zeihan said about cars a century ago? People love their horses and there is not enough rubber available for all the tires necessary... 🙈🤣
🤣🤣🤣
I’m really surprised at what he said. Dude’s in the dark. He needs to test drive a Tesla.
Thanks for explaining the realities. Now I know it better.
Today I have more trust in information being delivered from somebody standing in the cold with a silly blue hat then I do our government or the president of the United States.
Good video 😄👍
I will bookmark this video and check back in 2 years to see if the fraction of EV’s in the US actually does peak at 1%. For people such as my wife who have commutes that involve a lot of stop and go traffic EV’s make a lot of individual economic sense.
I love Peter. But he is not all that well informed on this.
His numbers are off. Makes wonder if I should still trust what he has said about other topics. "During the first half of 2023 - from January 1 to June 30 - the number of BEVs registered totaled 546,551, an increase of 62 percent over the prior year. Overall, electric cars made up 7.1 percent of the total market, up from 4.9 percent during the same period in 2022, and 3.1 percent in 2021"
@@jamestran2099is that new sales or existing vehicles? I love my model y but I don’t think one of every 13 cars out there is an ev.
@@jamestran2099 I think he said 1% of vehicles, not vehicles sold in the first half of 2023?
@@jamestran2099Maybe you should pay attention more. Your numbers are the number of vehicles sold in a time period (last 12 months). He is talking about the total fleet of vehicles currently on the road.
I live in South Africa, where the energy parastatal has been run into the ground by the ruling ANC. As a result, our household is fully off grid in a very sunny country. I purchased an EV and drip charge it off of my solar panels. For free. So it makes sense for me personally. We also have 2 petrol vehicles for longer distance trips…
Thats about how it should be for everyone. The elephant in the room is that you got some land and everyone needs a little piece of land including to grow food. We had this 100 years ago but today people are shoved into small apartments, and have no aspirations of acquiring property and working the soil. Houses should all be on basically double the size lots today but affordably. The government should be acquiring or dividing federal land. Federal land today is viewed as permanently federal nature preserve. I am not saying to hell with nature but come on now, we are destroying the planet creating concrete cities and shipping food by air thousands of miles, and burning millions of gallons diesel to grow it then ship it.
Agree. In certain areas EVs make sense.
Yup, you need to sell everything and get out of South Africa, which will be the next Zimbabwe (or worse), as your life may actually depend on it. Good Luck.
On California's energy mix: At the present moment, demand (NOT capacity) on the California electrical stands at 25,502 MW. Here is a breakdown of the sources:
Solar: 4712 MW
Wind: 983 MW
Other Renewables: 1318 MW
Natural Gas: 9106 MW
Large Hydro: 1353 MW
Imports: 1883 MW
Batteries: 1397 MW
Nuclear: 1093 MW
If you add this up, it totals 19,962 MW, not even equaling the demand. Yet, there is over 42,000 MW of capacity available. Where is that coming from?
Figures from the website of the CA Independent System Operator.
Sales aren't down across the board, only legacy auto EV sales are down. BYD and Tesla sales are growing at an accelerating rate. Uncompelling EV sales are definitely down, and a significant factor is interest rates. What has happened in South Australia is distributed energy generation (rooftop solar) has massively reduced the need for transmission conductor upgrades, aided by distributed energy storage (home batteries).
The federal Australian Coalition kept banging on about how renewables were "impossible" as a solution, yet right now South Australia is close to100% intermittent renewable (solar and wind) for 180 days at a time. But isn't this supposedly "impossible"?
Plus sodium batteries are progressing all the time. EVs still have issues - public charging is rubbish in my state of Tasmania, Australia, although 99% of my charging is at home, and over summer, largely from my own 10kw solar. Renting an EV and travelling carries that risk more than ever. But most charging is at home anyway. This remains amajor issue for those in Apartments and without off street parking.
But exploration, extraction, transport and refining of fossil fuels to be burnt once doesn't have an infinite future!
A hot take in my local area is dealers are NOT discounting and still have markups especially on EVs. A Ford Lightning still has a $10k markup in my area. On top of the higher MSRP.
What's your local area? In mine they still seem to be popular too (Burlington VT)
Ford dealerships are the biggest thieves on the planet.
Those Fords have high demand and limited production
Why would anyone buy a Ford EV over a Tesla?
Ironically Ford has slashed prices on the mustang EV, but it's up to the dealer to pass those savings onto the customer.
Ford currently has a 120 day supply of EV's because the demand isn't there.
Peter, I appreciate most of your stuff, but there is a huge miss here, and that is interest rates. Rates have made all cars harder to sell and the ICE makers are just circling the wagons until rates improve. I agree that EVs are not as green as hoped, but that would not be my reason for buying one. I have seen estimates of 5 to 15 years for carbon breakeven.
Maybe you also missed that the Model Y is the best selling car model of any type (EV or ICE) globally...
Peter doesn't expect rates to come down anytime soon
I think Peter has missed the mark on this one. 22.7% of USA's emissions are over the road vehicles. Switching from ICE to EV provides a glidepath to remove those emissions completely once the grid is transitioned and the swap lowers emissions in the interim as power plants are more efficient than ICEs. It is impractical for most of the USA to switch to other transportation methods due to it's size.
Carbon breakeven for EVs only improves as time passes.
Peter…You mentioned at the beginning: “All on green energy happening nowhere”… Except for Quebec where almost 100% of electricity is green thanks to hydro and wind power, you may be right for now. But, this is a transition happening at many levels at the same time. Many jurisdictions are gradually improving things by decreasing their CO2 footprint. California may be at 50% fossil fuels based for electricity generation… but it is evolving. For instance, they have plans to install a large wind “farm” offshore which will change their footprint figure substantially. They are planning construction work for that in a major port.
Hi Preterm, I agree with all your points about EVs. According to you, what are the technologies we should pursue and develop to aim for a more energy and resources sustainable world?
Wood stove and a hybrid.
small (!!!) EVs, including hydrogen EVs (H2 produced when energy is abundant), use more nuclear and save as much energy as possible. I.e. be less disruptive, faster and cheaper.
@@paladain55 Yes to the hybrid! But wood stoves are not scalable to the entire population.
Preterm?
i agree. Really depends on location. Currently i live in the timber basket.@@puma7171
EV sales globally are up 37% in China, 28% in Europe, and up 50% in US and Canada (H1 2022 vs H1 2023). But some manufacturers aren't seeing this growth; I suspect due to a) poor products that are adapted ICEs to BEV (think the Ford Mustang) rather than clean sheet BEVs, or b) sold through distributors who don't like to sell them as the have a much lower after sales servicing revenue stream, or a combination of a and b. Some manufacturers have really badly adapted to the new market realities, but that doesn't mean the market as a whole is doing badly.
As to the CO2 payback period, that will shorten as grids move more to renewables as well as the number of residences that install home solar / batteries to offset grid generation / distribution / charging issues. Sure, it'll hurt but it won't be as bad as Peter makes out.
Dumb data. If i sell 3 cars in 2022 and I sell 4 cars in 2023, i increased the EV sale by 33%. But i still only sold 4 cars lmao
@@Sqwr Those numbers in raw figures; Global BEV & PHEV car sales by month for 2023; Jan 650k, Feb 810k, Mar 1.15M, Apr 970k, Jun 1.28M. PHEV sales are about 60% less than BEV sales.
@@user-ZeihanOnGeo.-How about I just report you instead?
@@TankEnMate volkswagen alone sells 20 million cars a year. EV sales are just ultra low when you compare to the ICE sales. People knows an EV is a con for dummies
@@Sqwr BEV TCO is already lower than ICE, and with the continuing price cuts it's only going in one direction. So people who want a cheaper car will be going EV. ICE owners will have to face growing costs over the next 10 years or so. In a number of countries the inflection point is in the past.
Peter, talking about personal computers in the 1980's: We can't make that many microchips! We've never done this before! Don't get me started on cellphones, whatever they are!
Talking about gasoline in the 20s: There aren't any gas stations, let alone any infrastructure to ship it, we don't even know how much oil is underground!
I’m not an engineer or a physicist, but I do recognize that an electric vehicle has less moving parts that can both encounter friction and break. Then, once you do get the necessary infrastructure to recharge them the “fuel” for the vehicle will haul itself through the power line, thus eliminating the need for fuel to be hauled several times during the production process, only to be pumped into the vehicle by an electric gas pump at the station. No more changing oil or belts or filters except for the cab air filter. Railroads have used regenerative braking for years now so that concept must work. I don’t think we’re there yet, but I do believe EV’s will take over one day. Just like when the internal combustion engine took over steam.
Great Comments. Thanks!
Whether an EV will work for you depends on your daily living circumstances. We bought a house that already had 80(!) solar panels. A couple years later we bought a Tesla. Half of the year I can charge solely from the panels. During the colder months I have to draw from the grid (that will improve when I retire), but my electric bills are less than my gasoline bills would be. Had we not bought that house, or live in an apartment building, we would not have even considered an EV.
No one can afford solar panels I have solar panels and I like them and they cut my bill by about 40% but the average person can't afford $70,000 worth of solar panels people are living paycheck to paycheck and I don't see that changing anytime soon. I don't see these wars going anywhere I don't see supply lines fixing themselves we're basically in a depression no one wants to say it out loud. Not to mention there are very limited options for buying electric vehicles that are cheap they are so bloody expensive if you are a contractor living paycheck to paycheck you're not going to want to buy a $90,000 for lightning that's going to lose its charge in the cold and then when you put material and a trailer on it it gets well under half of its advertised range it's just not plausible for most people
@ZeihanOnGeo thanks for another great video. I am very curious about this gentlemen’s circumstances and how it relates to EVS. Are EVs advantageous if you can charge from home in a sunny geography?
Ps. I live in France and Im telling everyone about EOTWIJTB. Serious interest. Will there be a French translation anytime soon?
That's the thing about green energy (aside from hydro electric) is that seasonally it can be wildly unreliable. We're still dependent upon traditional forms energy generation.
It is good to see you live in the REAL WORLD, unlike the leftist that have an incredible nack for destruction, and failure....and DENIAL!!!!
Correct your right the first time I have to totally agree with someone ev cars are no good if you charge at home or live in flats god knows what the government is thinking of and not even getting on the move for more,charging points god help we
I want an EV because I they should last more than 20 years. The motors just work for a really long time and batteries last longer than people expected. A Tesla Model X, S, new Cybertruck or Aptera probably won't rust either since they're aluminum, stainless, or carbon.
Far longer than that. LiFePO4 batteries, like those used in the standard range Tesla Model Y, can cycle 8000 times, before losing 20% of original battery capacity. That translates to about 2 million miles. I don't think I've driven 2 million miles in my entire life at the age of 60.
@@sowirelessgood luck with that 2 million miles, is that why they give you a 5-8 year warranty on the battery?
@@Badger9012 years for some. They will not give a 2 million-mile warranty to ensure people never use the warranty. That would cut into the bottom line. These companies are all about profits.
Great amount of useful data on this subject ! I agree with what he said !
Try to look at data doesn't doesn't agree with you. It's not like all the others are idiots. If EVs are not the answer, what is? Status Quo?
You’ve identified the problems, which is the first step to solving them.
Next is to identify the solutions.
Then to implement them.
I have no doubt that there are solutions out there.
Can’t wait to watch these videos from you.
I’m a Utility Inspector in California, You would be shocked at how old most of our power poles and equipment are. They’re from the 1950’s, 60’s & 70’s.
we just had 4 inspectors come out, and a crew of guys with 2 trucks, a bucket truck to take out a small bush that I could have taken 30 seconds with a weed eater. All this has been in the span of 4 months. Still haven't replaced the pole yet.
It’s amazing that many of these old splintery power poles are still standing. I cringe when the wind blows.
I've seen 80 year old power transformers still in use. Good utilities monitor each one's dissolved gasses and are able to fairly accurately predict before they fail catastrophically.
I've been an EV driver for over 12 years, after I built my first EV myself. They are more reliable than a gas car. EVs require such little maintenance that my total transportation budget went down to 1/10 of my gas car budget. High mileage enterprises (like hertz) can do the math, and are buying as many EVs as they can get their hands on.
EVs are not a 1/1 replacement for gas cars, I think most everyone misses that (including the government). EVs are only now attempting to tow cargo, it's almost impossible to charge a bundle of EVs at an apartment building, and some people need to drive for 4+ hours at the drop of a hat.
But! EVs accomplish daily driving tasks extraordinarily well. I got into EVs because I wanted the cheapest thing to putz around during the week, so I could enjoy my gas car on the weekends. That's exactly what I got.
What kind of EV do you drive now?
good bot
@@ethanswanson9209 right now I drive a Kia EV6.
EV trucks would only be allowed to transport the very lightest of goods because of their weight easily exceeding limits in the various jurisdictions.
Honestly, we really shouldn't even be using trucks for long-distance goods transport. Electric cargo trains and water transport for long distance travel, electric cargo trucks for short distance travel. @@floxy20
One of the things I learned in life is not to believe in what overly confident people say but rather listen to people with open mind who talk about possibilities. They used to say that people could be buying books over the Internet but they'd never buy anything else. Not only we're buying nearly everything on the net today, physical books are almost history. IMO, progress cannot be stopped and in foreseeable time battery based cars will probably become much more efficient and affordable than fossil fuel cars.
Right on Peter. Keep up the good work
As a engineer in the mining industry, the mineral shortages are real but face a puzzling conundrum. We really need more Cu, Ni, Co, Li, Fe, Mn etc but the prices are static or falling. There is little incentive for companies to invest 5-10 billion dollars up front for a 5-10 year period before they begin to see production at a new mine. Price have a long way to climb and remain before there is a truly exponential growth in metals production.
Isn't it potentially Chinese subsidies that artificially lowers the pricing (flooding the market with subsidized minerals)? EU recently started an "investigation".
@@idomaghic possibly but I don’t have access to any facts about that.
we need to start mining asteroids
@@joshm8015
Peter, fortunately the USA is not the world. While the EV fleet in New Zealand is currently small, over the last couple of years 1/3 of new vehicles sold have been EV's that are powered by a grid that that generates 90% of its energy from renewable resources. For those that can afford the higher upfront cost of purchasing a new vehicle, their current cost here is comparable to a traditional car once fuel costs are taken into consideration. While NZ only produces a small fraction of the worlds emissions, it does show that some of your issues have been addressed in other parts of the world
Aren't they introducing taxes on usage of these vehicles to recoup the money they're losing on fuel taxes on ICE vehicles?
NZ can't be compared to the rest of the world either. Scalable uptake is impossible outside geographically small, wealthy western countries.
New Zealand also has a population around 1% or the US, so it's much easier to scale in a small market like that.
Well clearly you are not an engineer.
The EV sales lady said power comes from the wall. See! No problem.
I am just a lowly retired factory worker. With my limited knowledge I predicted what this gentleman is saying. I pity those who have sunk a whole lot of money into this money pit as they will soon regret it.
I live in Ireland where our government bought EV buses which are now in storage due to the complete lack of charging points.........
This is no different than when AC units became popular. The power grid has 4X the output it did 60 years ago. We will adapt as we always do…
Ac units aren’t even close to EVs in power requirements.
Right, and like your example, and as he said, it would take decades if not more. You've bolstered his argument. Who says EV's are the correct or best adaptation?
@@matthewhunter6421EV's are much better for places like Denver and San Diego that trap pollution over the cities.
How is it "no difference"? Are you daft? A/C units use the existing grid, which particularly at the time was all agile generation methods, like coal and gas. So we literally just turn it up a bit. Now a bunch of our grid is unreliable renewables, and the energy requirements for an EV are MASSIVE, not even in the same universe as A/C. And where do we charge these? Home only? There's no infrastructure outside of LA/NYC
Not with windmills
One thing that I wish you would talk about is the relative benefit of PHEVs. With 30-50 miles of EV range, they act as EVs for the overwhelming majority of miles driven (more if they charge once during the day and once at night), but they take only about 1/4-1/3 the battery capacity to achieve that benefit, thus _massively_ cutting down on the environmental impact of the battery supply chain.
Peter's either not looking carefully enough, or he's selling something.
The laws of physics don’t change here. Assuming the cars weigh the same each battery is going to have the same environmental impact in the long term assuming they are the same battery and discarded when they reach the same level of degradation. EVs have additional weight from more batteries, PHEVs have additional weight from an IC engine.
If you want to save the planet stop driving and don’t own a car.
Where is this ICE supply chain is better coming from? Do people not realize that once we've mined enough minerals to build the needed number of cars on earth, we'll scale back mining to simply keep up with increases in demand, not change over an entire system as we are doing now. Once that's done, we slow down our demand. Yet, we'll need to continually drill for oil to power an ICE car. And this BS about the grid assumed to be clean? Get your facts straight Peter. An EV run on the dirties coal powered grid is still cleaner than an ICE car because of economies of scale. EVs are an economic inevitability. Recent legacy whining about EV demand falling is misrepresented by their numbers. Their numbers show they can't sell cars and nobody is buying EVs. the piece they're missing is, nobody is missing THEIR EVs. Tesla Y is the brest selling car on earth this year. It's an EV. People are desperate for a compelling reasonably priced EV and nobody makes them but Tesla. Tesla sells every car they make. They will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Cost reduction curves are predictable. Costs will be near nothing faster than anyone realizes. Adoption of disruptive tech curves are another one that are predictable. All signs are pointing to ICD being dead before 2030 for most manufacturers. Those who survive will be tiny compared to what they are today. There will be bailouts, mergers etc. but the automotive landscape of the future is s Tesla, BYD, a bunch of other Chinese brands and maybe a legacy OEM down in the 10-15 place. It's still Tesla's world and everyone else is paying rent.
Excellent point, I’ve thought about the same. And if / when the battery dies and you are faced with a $5-$10k battery bill you have the option as a poorer consumer of using just ICE for a while.
@@richardf911 Peter used to work in the energy sector, and he's a smart guy. He's not uninformed, he's willfully ignorant on this. Read literally any other reputable scientific source, and it strongly disagrees with him.
Visit Norway or the Netherlands and find out what the future of EV looks like
Safe, walkable communities reduce vehicle use immensely, and unfortunately the events of 2020 in places like Minneapolis, Portland and Seattle worked against middle-class urban living
Since it is winter, can we now expect each episode to be " Hat Coded " ?
The " Knight's Watch-Cap " for War and Defense ?
That "Stringy Green-Bluey Seaweed Thing" for Environment and Ecology ?
( just having all urban short-haul delivery trucks, taxi cabs and city buses be electric would be something )
For what gain would you make city buses electric? 0.000000000001 degrees less warming in 100 years? It's pointless. Today's ICE engines don't cause much pollution.
@@freetrade8830 Ever drive behind a city bus ? Besides, we will charge the buses off the ring of Wind Turbines/Flak Towers surrounding the Cities 😏
I was thinking his other half is missing a floor mop 😂
@@studips maybe he cleans up after himself ?
@@danjohnston9037 I do, while riding a bicycle. It is absolutely fine. Look up Euro6 and other emission standards that are mandatory in non-retarded parts of the world.
IC cars are not gone, their lots are full. That in itself is a lie, and I usually love your videos Peter. C'mon.
I guess it depends where you are at. Stalantis lots I see a full. F-150s for months. Toyota and Honda nada. The car industry is hurting.
I believe he said the IC car lots are empty. And by that he meant because they are selling still like hot cakes, while the EV car lots are full because they are not selling. That was my take on his statement anyway. I might be wrong
@warriorirl Yeah, the lots are full of cars which sell very quickly and are then replaced with different cars which sell very quickly...
I've heard some lots will keep many of their cars off site because of theft, vandalism, and the appearance of low inventory (to get people to panic buy). Not sure how true that is so take it for what it is worth.
@@bertamusprime618there are videos online where folks have recorded hundreds of unsold new vehicles and you can see the dealer driving them over and dropping it off. Not sure how prevalent it is, but it's not pure bs.
It's the first time I agree 100% with Peter Zeihan. I've driven IC cars since 1987 (petrol and diesel, about 20+ different models), and lately I used to do an average of 25k kms per year. Unfortunately I live in the zero emission center of my city, Madrid Spain so I naturally moved towards an EV. Have it since March (2 years renting) and just want to add one more element to all Peter said which is true: since March, 9 months now, I've done... 3'200 kms with the car! I think I will get to 5k kms in one year, 5 times less than with my diesel car! Why? Ridiculous range, no public charger outside of my city, nowhere to go beyond a 100 kms diameter without taking a serious risk. Do yourself a favor, don't buy an EV, they are useless! My next car: mild hybrid.
The very fact that the great, progressive state of California is wanting full EV adoption ASAP, but was asking the few percentage of EV owners to NOT charge last summer SAYS EVERYTHING!
Actually, it doesn't say EVERYTHING. You're quite dishonest. Even with your statement that California wants full EV adoption ASAP. That's just not true. Do you believe your own lies?
I have Tesla Mode 3 for a year now and I love it. If you can charge at home and don't need to travel more than say 400km per day (depends on weather) then Tesla EV is a no-brainer. But not other EVs 😁 As I saw on X: People don't want an EV, they want Tesla!
You have to give the Muskrat credit, he's a great con man.
💯
Right on!
@@GeorgeStarthat's Elongated Muskrat to you :D
@@GeorgeStar You lack the evidence to support your conclusions Brandon
OP is right, Tesla is the only EV to buy, everyone else is decades behind.
My wife and I have owned an EV since 2019. She drives it as her daily commuter, and loves it. When we bought it, I got her old ICE car that she's driven since 2011. Long story short, I need to replace the 2011 ICE vehicle and we are contemplating which type to buy: ICE, Hybrid or 2nd EV. ICE doesn't feel right. Hybrid feels better, and is where we are leaning. 2nd EV doesn't feel right. I understand why demand is waning. The 2019 EV battery is down to 270 miles of range, and will only decay from there. Long EV trips require planning, 20 minute charges (to get to ~80% battery capacity) and for what? If EVs had 500 mile range and more accessible supercharges in rural areas, I'd be more inclined to consider 2nd EV. Hybrid it is.
Im glad you convinced yourself here in front of us 👀
hybrids are the worse of both worlds. Just pick one over the other.
@@El...PresidenteRight ? As if any of us give a f@ck what kind of car he buys ?
@@suddenlytitan739 If a plugin hybrid has enough batteries to get you to work and back, you'll only need to gas up for road trips. Sounds like an OK savings. Plus you may not need a tow if your engine dies 20km from the shop.
What planning do your trips require doesn't your car plot your course and charging for you?
The US seems to be lagging behind some other countries in adopting BEVs - e.g. in Norway in August 2023 83.5% of new vehicles sold were BEVs. China is also making strong progress in BEVs. My personal experience is that a BEV is perfectly viable for my needs. It has a range of 250-300 miles depending on the time of year - admittedly in the relatively moderate UK climate.
Well said.
I respectfully hold a different perspective on your remarks, Peter. I am currently a resident of the stunning state of Colorado and made the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) a few years ago. I have no plans to return to driving internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Initially, my wife had reservations about using an EV, but now that she owns one, she thoroughly enjoys it. It's worth mentioning that, at this time, EVs may not be suitable for everyone, primarily due to the inadequate infrastructure for those residing in community settings like apartments or condos.
The production of ICE vehicles involves sourcing approximately 30,000 parts from around the world, contributing to greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, the process of purchasing an EV, particularly a Tesla, is remarkably streamlined, as they are built vertically rather than horizontally, unlike traditional car manufacturers.
EVs have fewer components (10,000) that can malfunction, resulting in reduced wear and tear on the vehicle. Essentially, they require virtually no maintenance. For example, the brakes on an EV can last for at least 200,000 miles, with tires being the primary wear item. Buying a Tesla is comparable to making an online purchase on Amazon (without haggling with a car salesman and manager).
I like to draw a comparison between transitioning to a Tesla and upgrading from a flip phone (ICE) to a smartphone (Tesla). Legacy car companies are still grappling with the manufacturing and sale of EVs, while battery technology has made significant advancements in recent years, indicating a promising trend.
In terms of safety, I feel significantly more secure in an EV, thanks to advanced safety features, cameras, regenerative braking, and Tesla's continuous software improvements that introduce new features even after purchase, making them even safer. In fact, Tesla's vehicles are renowned as the safest on the road. In contrast, ICE vehicles remain unchanged until you purchase a new one.
As for range anxiety, the lowest battery percentage I've reached is 43% when traveling to the mountains and back. This is because, in reality, most people don't drive more than 300 miles in a day. I simply return home, plug in, and my EV is ready for the next day. This eliminates the need to search for the cheapest gas stations and wait in line to fill up my car, especially in inclement weather. While I can't speak for all EV models, they typically offer at least 250 miles of range.
To clarify, I drive an EV not only for its environmental benefits but also because they are quiet, require virtually no maintenance, and are exceptionally safe. They represent a superior alternative to ICE vehicles in virtually every aspect.
Side Note: When my girls start driving they will get our Tesla's which will give me complete peace of mind knowing how safe the car is, I will know exactly how fast they drive and where they are located at all times.
SShh, its ok mate, we know they conned you.
Are you worried about the batteries entering thermal-runaway and burning down your garage? There are lots of TH-cam videos of EVs bursting into flames after a fender-bender, or while charging.
Spoken not like someone who owns Teslas, but someone who owns a LOT of Tesla's stock.
@@inoculateinoculate9486 nope, don't own any Tesla stock.
I have a Tesla M3 Performance, and a RAV 4 Prime hybrid. I can't say enough good things about them. Any problems I've had were covered under warranty or were wear and tear items not related to the powertrain. These vehicles are extremely reliable and the motors are rated at a million miles. I don't know what more one could ask for.
Just curious - what are the batteries rated for? With my admittedly limited research on the subject, I thought battery life was the biggest challenge due to the cost of replacement.
Battery costs are plummeting. They will continue to do so for a while. They are testing batteries up around 20 million miles worth of charge discharge cycles. When your big expensive lump of mined materials is dead (long after the car around it has died since it will long outlast the car and be used at someone's cottage or refurbished into a stationary storage system or other repurposed use) you'll be able to sell all those refined minerals to a recycler who will turn it back into a brand new battery. We are at the beginning of a new technology. ICE cars have been improved over a century. EVs will improve over the next few decades then price will stabilize. But they'll fall a lot before that happens. I expect by 2030 buying a $20K EV that is better in every way than today's ICE BMW3 series won't be unreasonable. The future is going to be awesome. We just need to stop fighting it. Change is scary. @@carlgarrett5142
@@carlgarrett5142It's funny, I talk to people about this regularly when they say batteries only last 8 to 10 years. This is generally how long they are warrantied. It is not as though they self destruct at this age. And the replacement costs are continually falling
Peak?? He's suggesting we are at peak production for EVs?! Peter's analysis is seriously disappointing here. Makes me wonder.
@@ErnestoGluecksmannBingo, Dude is on the take.
Well I live in Denmark.
Too fill up my Peugeot 208 diesel costs 82usd.
If I had an ev and charged it at night it would be 6usd, in the day around 20usd…
So imagine here in Canada they are forcing us to go with heat pumps AND EV. Imagine the overload on the power grid.
Lol exactly. No to Nuclear power plants but yes to using exponentially more energy…just no plan where the extra juice will come from
Well - I’m Norwegian and we have to all intents and purposes changed to EVs and almost all our power is hydro. No nuclear or coal.. so why is it so difficult in Canada?
@@TorGisvoldmaybe they have the same kind of grid as the US - built to be cheap, not built to be reliable.
greetings from Germany!
Time to modernize the grid if it does not support that!
Yep, you have to "imagine" it for it to be a problem. Man, you guys have lots of hydro power. Perfect for EVs. You may have to upgrade your grid. So what.
My dad bought an EV and it had paid for itself in about 5 years when you weigh up how much he was paying in petrol. There are some commuter situations where it absolutely makes sense to go EV.
A five year payback period is way too long.
He must be driving like mad, then. I spend $50 a month on gasoline. Just how many years would it take to payoff a $50,000 car at $50 a month? Oh, yeah, a thousand months, or 83 years.
Bullshit. Unless he was driving a humvee 50 miles to work a day
It's true that it could be a good solution for some people. Scaling it up for everyone, though, is what Mr. Z is talking about. This just isn't possible with our current technology.
@@retiefgregorovich810 $50 a month is a tiny amount to spend on gas, you must hardly drive. Thanks for telling us your story though.
I think the biggest reason Ev sales are down is because interest rates are up. So yes people can’t afford but not because they don’t want to get it.
Ford and GM are also not making good EVs yet. They are also losing money on them because they didn’t know what they were doing with these 1st gen EVs of theirs and made them too expensive to build and make a profit.
People NEVER could afford them in the first place. They were just scammed into more debt. Except those who were scamming themselves and got rich on predatory loan schemes that is.
it is okay if you want to believe that.
Nope, the EV’s are sitting and the gas and hybrids are selling out. Half our models are sold out still and we’re waiting on inventory to catch up.
Translation: "I want interest rates to go back to zero instead of being at historically reasonable rates."
When compared to the alternative, ‘far from perfect’ looks pretty good.
I love my Tesla never going back. I stoped paying for maintenance and gas. Saves me about 200 a month. LFP BATTERIES OR BUST.