Never Buy New Lows, Never Short New Highs | TCAF 39
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 22 ก.ย. 2024
- On episode 39 of The Compound & Friends, Michael Batnick, Nick Colas, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss: what it's like working for Steve Cohen, investor confidence, tighter financial conditions, bank stocks, quantum computing and crypto, driverless vehicles, and much more!
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On
Ono
Yikes
This guest was unbelievably insightful and brilliant. Please have Nick Colas on your show again in the future. Same goes for Tom Lee.
Nick Colas and Tony Dwyer are by far the best guests you've had. I would love to see regular episodes with both of these guys. I'm on my 3rd listen right now!
He is clueless about EVs. People don't go to dealerships for electric cars. They see a friend's Tesla, take a ride ask a few questions, and order on line. The resale value of a Tesla is less than an ICE?? - LOL Try to buy a two year old for less then 80% of new one - won't happen.
There is only one EV company - Tesla. F and GM have ICE anchors such as Development and dealerships, that he did note, that will drown them.
You buy one Tesla and you're done; it is good for 500K miles. Lots of older Tesla data is publicly available to review. Brakes are good for 100K. Tires and wiper fluid are your only expenses, no gas, oil, tune ups, etc.
You charge at home at the rate of 50 miles per hour. One hour a day tops it off at night while you are sleeping.
On a road trip you supercharge at 500- 1000 miles per hour so in 15 to 20 minutes and you are on your way. I have driven one since 2018. The car has more range than my bladder, which is the only real limiting range factor.
Tesla has an eight year warranty on the battery for 70% of capacity. So 8 years later your car can go 225 miles per charge or you get a new battery.
Yes this guy n tom lee r dope
Agreed
Tom Lee may actually have a crystal ball.
Nick Colas is the gold standard for a guest. This is such a wonderful interview. I feel people will come back and watch this show over and over again.
Thank you guys for all of the hard work you put into these.
Just rewatched ;)
Subscribed to DataTrek, Nick's daily publication for $50/mo it's a steal
@@indianajones3315 in the subscription what kind of stuff is sent? like top picks?
Hands down, the best guest The Compound has had on so far. He describes Trading to a T. 💯
nope. smart dude, biased as f.
@@Tom0000 biased regarding what?
Best episode ever. Nick Colas thinks 8 moves ahead. You'd wanna watch this thrice! Kudos to great questions and topics. There are gold nuggets in every minute 👍
When you have a guest like Nick, that just drops knowledge in every syllable, I replay over and over until I fully absorb the information. I'd rather binge TCAF than Westworld.
I’ve listened to this 3 times already, here for my 4th with a notepad. Cannot hype this enough, this was an all-time episode.
BEST. EPISODE. YET. Just kept rewinding and processing every word Nick said. And props to Josh who, I will say again, is so much smarter than his demeanor belies. He processes information from his guests so damn fast and helps the audience make sense of sophisticated finance and business concepts. Very impressive. Very insightful. Very helpful is this UP is DOWN environment.
The best part is Mike switching from bullish to bearish and back to bullish again. Strong convictions held weakly! Great guest. Weakest part was his explanations on why EVs would not be adopted quickly - because people would fear they wouldn't have a charge if they had to go to the hospital quickly? Ranges are better than they were, technology is improving and how is this different than being out of gas? I am not an EV fanatic, but I think there are better reasons for slower adoption such as lack of chargers, which was pointed out. Right now that is an issue, but perhaps not so much in the next 5-10 years?
Totally agree. This guest is amazing but his EV take was a downer. I'm the ICE guy that drives his car to empty on every trip. So if I come home my EV will have more range when I need it to get to the hospital in his scenario than an ICE will ever because 1 or 2 hours of charge will get me to any hospital I need in any city on any continent I have ever lived! (Not a Tesla fan boy...wish I owned the stock!!!)
@@conradhenninger2209 I don't even own an EV (yet, but they are inevitable - you don't want to holding ICE in 5 years) and growing popularity will swamp electricity charging demand, but you can't equate current capacity with future demand. Of course there are problems, but to think people won't strive to adapt to these problems, especially when there is money to be made, is short-sighted. Beyond that he was excellent. But the weakness of his answers was jarring to the strength of the rest of the show.
@@conradhenninger2209 it'll still easily outperform the market this decade. Probably the best risk adjusted opportunity if you're holding long term. Began investing in 2018 and I've held since. It's a highly misunderstood company.
This guy is a freaking BRAIN!! Great Interview!!
Didn't want the episode to end. Amazing content.
Neither did we!
Every now and then you run into a conversation that teaches you more about a topic than you've known in your whole life. This is one of them. Nick Colas is a wicked smart guy who should be on the show on a regular basis. Nice!
Please bring Nick again, he's absolutely amazing and we need him in these times 👍
I watch you guys everyday. This may be the best episode I have seen. Soooo many jewels.
Please make Nick Colas a regular 😭 this was your best episode to date
Wow, Nick is the best guest you guys have ever had on the show. I will bookmark this show to watch again, and again.
By far the best episode I have watched on the channel. So many topics covered and so many eye-opening insights in Nick's reasoning on those hard topics like crypto, the metaverse and autonomous driving. I will probably watch it a few more times this weekend just to absorb everything!
easily the best episode. i'm shocked out how direct, clear, and thoughtful his answers were
Nick is the best!
Man dropped gems throughout this whole podcast. Amazing
Just when I thought I had a clue as to how the the financial markets worked, Nick Colas brings me back to reality. Incredible interview!
Nick Colas is a wealth of knowledge. Thank you for bringing him on your show. Now a fan!!!
i could listen to Mr Colas for hours.. wow ... incredible dude... i learned so much
Glad you enjoyed it!
Best guest so far. Loved that chat about deviations and the vix. Great stuff
I have no idea what Nick is saying 50% of the time, but this guy is clearly so brilliant I could listen to him talking with the guys everyday . Love the Compound
a year ago i would be in your seat and not knowing half, now i dont understand 20%, one step at a time :)
Going through older videos. This may be one of the best produced. Nick is a genius himself.
This might be the greatest The Compound & Friends/ Animal Spirits episode of all time.
Thanks for watching, Danny!
Episodes like this are why I tune in to #TheCompound. No offence to the other great guests you guys have, but I love when someone comes on and knows their shit, intelligently hitting on investment tangents that have been peripherally bouncing around in our heads.
I’ve watched this episode 3 times now. By far the best guest ever and the best episode yet. He had to come back for another
This was the best one yet! I listened to it 3 times hoping to digest whatever I could.
Probably the best episode so far. I learned so much and am a better person for having watched and listened
One of the best interviews I have seen/listened to at The Compound & Friends. Nick backs his take with data. Very very insightful!
Amazing listen. Great podcast guys.
That was a fantastic podcast. Thanks Guys.
Nick Colas. Tom Lee. This pair, your MVP’s
Bring Nick regularly
He is insightful
I worked with Nick at CS First Boston. Smart guy, great insights.
this was the best episode ever. guest clearly stated his point of view on the market, and gave strategies on navigating the markets going forward. need more of this
Josh and Michael u guys really need to zip it sometimes and let the guest talk! So many gems from Nick lost forever because Michael or Josh cut in and talked over him just as he was about to drop the gem.
💯
Hey, don't lump Michael in there, he is relatively sanguine. Josh is The Great Interruptor...His superpower is that he can't go 30 seconds without having to hear the sound of his own voice😂
@@paulsommerhalder9049 Good point, Josh u gotta read this and let the guests talk man..
...
Wow, great show. I could listen to Nick Colas all day long. He's articulate, clearly experienced, and has some great insights and he can explain everything so that ever I understand it.
This is by far the best show with Nick - serious knowledge was dropped during this episode.
This episode of The Compound is one of my favorite. Thank you guys for inviting Mr. Nick Colas, just learned SO much precious knowledge regarding Secondary Market Securities and Experiences from an actual Wall-Street Institutional Professional.
1.) Trading is a Craft. The amount of discipline you need determines if you are practicing trading correctly or not. The example of having a repeatable system to achieving a goal of "$1000" per day was on point. You reach the goal, you're done. Then you expand your goal to "$2000/day". A real employment narrative from Colas explaining how that was the scenario on an actual Wall Street Institution that trades Secondary Market Equities. Along working for legendary Mr. Steve Cohen. *Again, Investing is a totally different mindset .*
2.) Newbies perhaps think price actions on stocks are randomized. But Colas mentioned there is ALWAYS a reason, you just don't know it. And how modern day trading environment might be more complex compared to the olden days; where as back then it might be a explainable reason for a stock price to move as now of days.. It might just be two algorithms colliding with each other lol.
3.) Recent rally from two weeks of mid March to End of March is heavily correlated to VIX. When VIX reached 36 which was Super Over Sold on Equities in addition to 2 standard deviation, institutions HAVE to try for the rally, or else we are SCREWED. However, this might just correlates to how I explained the recent rally was because of institutions are closing positions on Delta Hedging instruments such as long term ITM Put Contracts on growth equities such as ARKK.
4.) Macro wise: We know the Fed is going to Hike Rates, We know there is rising inflation. So... Prior to 1983, historical data shown higher interest rates correlate to higher housing inflation. Main question, how much does corporate earnings hedge you from inflation? Will tech companies which mostly dominates the Equity Market sustain in rate hike environment? Again, my thought was also on Mega-Cap Tech names, stronger fundamentals with enormous cash flow which won't be affected by much, usually the smaller names that are demolished in a rate hike.
5.) Long-term wise.. Cola's view: S&P 500 Net Margin is 12%; Pre-Pandemic is 9%. With oil prices coming down as commodity prices are all cyclical. It's reasonable to be bullish from here.
Even though my perspective is similar, a.) SPX @4300 is quite fair valuation due to 5 yr avg of P/E of 18x. b.) Dollar Dominance still remains strong c.) Tech dominant Economy with unlimited potential of Profit Margin d.) Don't bet against America
I actually agree with Cola, we should of just have this recession and crash the Equity Market along with this Macro policy of rate hikes. Then we bottomed for sure, and clean up i.) Macro Environments. ii.) Equity Fundamentals iii.) Fed finished what they have to do.
WIthin 6 months we're done. Then we rally for another 10 years. However. Not the case for now.. Feds are pushing slowly. So now we have this possibility of yield curve inverting with the 7 times rate hikes, possibly a conclusion of a short term recession again don't quote me.
Gonna need to re-listen to this. Brilliant.
We need more Nick Colas on the show
Agree, we'll have him back at some point for sure.
I can hear Nick talk all day
This is probably the most important published hour of dialogue YTD
This episode was amazing, please have this guy on as often as possible. Extremely interesting from beginning to end.
The amount of knowledge being spread here is amazing. Great show!
One of the best guests on the show. Please invite him back and also Tom Lee
Really good show. Thanks again guys.
Best guest you've ever had. PLEASE have him on again, and for longer.
OK, I know I said Kris Sidial was the best guest ever on this show but Nick Colas is really THE BEST GUEST EVER on this show. I could listen to him for days. So much insight and experience. The stuff he was saying about Moore's Law and China and Apple and everything else was blowing my mind. Please have him back often.
PS: you have to listen to the podcast to hear the full unabridged version.
another excellent Friday episode... the EV talk was especially interesting. Thanks to everyone!!
Glad you enjoyed it!
We studies electric cars in school and we concluded that if the demand is high enough, the electricity will rise with it also. Ppl don’t seems to see this. If gas prices can go up, so as the electricity. My professor said be careful what you wish for.
Top 5 show in History and you have set the bar is very high. Bring back Nick!
Probably my favorite episode to date. Nick was an amazing guest and provided very interesting perspectives.
I watched this twice with all the good info. Thanks!
Glad you enjoyed it!
Ty for having wheels on. This was great.
Nick Colas is probably the most knowledgeable guest ever invited to the show.
Excellent show!! Thank you guys! I learned so much. Please bring Nick back again soon. Have a great weekend!
You guys kill it. Great podcast
Thank you!
Nick's insights were incredible. Just outstanding...
Watched this episode twice, just like I always do. Fascinating discussion on inner workings of the market. Can't find these knowledgeable guests anywhere else. Josh Brown is extremely smart but very self-effacing. Great environment to learn that can make one a better investor.
Wow! This guy was so well composed, I was mesmerized the entire show.
Thanks! Brilliant! Please have him back every week for a market recap!
Incredibly insightful, useful and smart content this week. In the top 5. Thanks dudes!!
Fantastic interview guys!
This episode is the best you guys ever did, so much valuable information insane. I wish Josh and Micheal let him talk and give his train of thought more. We could have done another hour of this. Nice one guys.
best episode by far
Nick Colas was an amazing guest! this your best episode by far. thank you
This is the best, I am learning so much. I am going to save this episode and watch it again after some time. Great job in finding the high quality guest
Josh/Michael: By far, the best episode ever. What an incredible guest. What a brilliant man. This episode is like a Masters Class; so dense and packed with great information. Thank you.
Glad you enjoyed it!
Listened to this on the Podcast. One of the most informative Podcasts I've heard of late covering so many financial topics. Just fantastic. Another 3 hours would have been fine with me! Thanks fella's...sharing this one with friends across the planet!
This! Is the dopest episode I’ve seen on your show! I keep taking notes. Great questions and Nick Colas is a beast.
Nick was great but please give the guests a chance to answer the questions asked. The interruptions prevented him from speaking his points in detail.
I had the pleasure of working with Nick a couple of moons ago. He was great then…..how can it be he is even better. Well he is!
I am smarter after watching this. Thank you guys. Top 5 Compound and Friends, hands down.
Thanks Dom! We loved having Nick on!
Another awesome show!! Nick is amazing with his analysis and insight! Nice job guys!
Best episode ever - just ordered an Ari Kiev book while watching - thanks guys!
Thanks for watching, I've got to pick that book up myself!
I dont comment on youtube videos, but I've watched every single video on this channel since inception and this is your best episode. Forcing my friends to watch
Appreciate it!
LOL," i just got bullish"...40 minutes later, "im bearish again" :D loved it
Glad you enjoyed!
Watching since before episode one. One of the best interviews yet. Thank ya'll.
Great guest. Please have him back.
Nick has so many insights, have him on again!
Great work guys, most entertaining finance podcast by far, keep it up
This was fantastic, Nick Colas was great, so much experiential, valuable information passed on. Definitely a top 5 compound and friends for me. Josh and Batnick are entertaining, witty and funny as always, and Batnick is hilarious, with his bearish to bullish to bearish - ness changing every 15 minutes. 😂
Great episode, I’m going to watch again and take notes.
This was a great guest thanks again guys!
Prices Lead Fundamentals!! - very deep!!
Never buy a new Low!!
& never short a new high!!
59:30 _Midnight Cowboy_ from 1969.
*NICE*
hell of an episode
I totally dig The Compound Crew. You got me hooked! Keep it up! Peace!
The episode aged well. Rewatched it.
"People are amazed when I cross lanes of traffic, and I'm amazed that they're amazed."
I'm pretty sure Josh just subtweeted Ben there.
Also, a +1 to all the comments praising Nick Colas. Just dropping knowledge all over this appearance. Hope you guys have him back.
Once again you guys hit it out of the park. Great guest,in a world of fog great to hear trading clarity on the Why.
One of the best episodes I’ve ever watched, keep up the good work.
A great deal of great information.
Great example of a smart, seasoned expert that displays serious biases using only evidence or hypothetical situations that specifically support his opinion.
Amazing show
Man, my head hurts. I am going to need to rewatch this 5 times and take notes to understand 50% of what you were talking about :-) Great show, I will enjoy each time I rewatch it.
Just tune-out at the end when the guest talks about EV's. He goes completely off the rails...sadly his EV faceplant casts doubt on everything else he's saying. A lecture on Moore's Law from a Wall Streeter....and I get all my medical advice from Bill Gates😂
Wow!! This episode took the crown for the most valuable episode in terms of useful content!