Sohn 2022 | John Collison in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 9 มิ.ย. 2022
- 06:04 Inflation Above 5%
08:56 The Market as an Economic Predictor
14:25 New Tools, New Toolkit
22:13 Crypto’s Effect on Other Asset Classes
25:00 Bitcoin vs. Gold
27:36 Work Ethic
29:19 Mobile Investing
30:36 Conviction and Being “Hot & Cold”
48:30 Stan’s Advice to a Young Investor
51:31 COVID Investment Inefficiencies
53:28 Bias Toward Growth Stocks
57:40 Stan’s Market “Pain Scale” and Possible Scenarios
1:03:45 Macro Pessimism
1:05:21 Bearish and Bullish
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Can't believe gems like this video are freely available to watch! Fantastic insights from the legend himself, always great to hear Stanley Druckenmiller's thoughts as the US approaches uncharted territory with inflation just coming in the highest in last 40 years
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stan has a team of ivy league analysts being paid 6 or 7 figures to give him this data and yet he's sharing it with us for free!
@@xilllllix yep
How can he agree with both Munger and miller on bitcoin if they are opposite
2:11 In my career I've said many things that didn't turn out
4:00 The last 10 or 11 years we've had $30 trillion in QE
4:35 This business is about guessing
5:11 We've only pulled off 2 or 3 soft landings in history. The one I remember was 1994/1995
5:20 We've never had a soft landing after inflation has gotten above 4.5%
5:56 Anything is possible. I've been wrong plenty of times in my career
6:25 Once inflation has gotten above 5%, it's never come down unless Fed Funds has gone above CPI
(but this time that will probably be broken, because Fed Funds would have to go above 8% this time)
7:24 Once inflation has gotten above 5%, it's never been tamed without a recession
8:23 We have $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion in excess savings (who? households or the Government?)
9:53 I was a dropout of a Ph.D program at the University of Michigan
9:57 I don't use what traditional economists use to predict the economy -- things like employment
10:17 The inside of the stock market has a prescient message regarding future economic activity
10:27 Stocks lead fundamentals by 6 to 12 months
11:00 We listen to companies and do a bottom-up analysis
11:14 If leading industries are turning up or down, that's a signal
11:27 The bond market used to be a prescient signaler,
but the last 10 or 11 years it hasn't signaled because the Central Banks have manipulated bond prices
12:04 Last summer when the 10-year yield dropped from 1.70 to 1.15, I didn't anticipate that
12:15 Central banks were buying trillions of dollars and manipulating price of bonds
13:15 Home builders with good fundamentals have declined 50% from their highs (might actually be around 36% drop)
13:28 Trucking is down 40% from their highs (might actually be around 30%)
13:49 Retail numbers are tainted. Can't just accept them blindly
14:48 A lot of these signals have long lead times, 6 months to a year (meaning, recession might not happen until 6 months to a year)
16:10 When I first got into the business,
if a company reported bad earnings but still closed the day positive, that stock was going to be up 6 months from then (and vice versa)
16:28 If the economy looked great and bonds were rallying, that meant the economy was not going to be great
16:55 Price versus news is weakened these days compared to 20 years ago
17:21 I started in this business in the mid 1970s
17:27 Traditionally, I learned that during bear markets I had to morph into bonds, commodities, foreign currencies
17:45 Maybe this says something about my dysfunctional personality but I've always made more money during bear markets
17:55 the way I did it was by ignoring equities and taking them off the table, and buying bonds
18:00 But I've never seen a situation like this where inflation is over 8% and yields 3%
18:21 Referring to golf, I feel like I'm about to play without a driver or wedge, because bonds which have been my go-to may not work this time
18:50 Investing is an art form and you have to innovate from cycle to cycle
20:29 I've lived through enough bear markets to know that if you get aggressive shorting, you can get your head ripped off with rallies
21:03 Side-stepping a decline is not the worst thing in the world (that is, getting out rather than risking losing or gaining)
21:31 I'll be surprised if sometime in the next 6 months the dollar DOESN'T weaken
23:09 There's a strong correlation between crypto and NASDAQ
24:00 My 69th birthday is in a few weeks
24:32 I feel like my predictive power is better but I'm not making as much money because I'm not as aggressive (with investing)
26:34 If we're gonna have a bull market, I want Bitcoin. If we're gonna have a bear market, Gold
27:35 You gotta know your own biases
28:10 I was lazy in college, but I'm passionate about investing.
I'm intellectually stimulated imagining the world and prices 12 to 18 months from now
31:15 Business school says that if you're highly diversified, you have less risk. I don't believe that at all
31:26 People get in the most trouble when they have stale longs or shorts
31:42 You have to have ruthless discipline and be paranoid
32:09 What I learned from George Soros is that it's not about whether you're right or wrong,
it's about how much you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong
32:25 I believe in streaks. One of my number 1 jobs is to know when I'm hot or cold
35:41 When you hear a good idea, within 2 or 3 weeks it may be too late
You’re very generous! Thank you 👍
Good job body, thanks
Thanks for all your efforts 👌🙏
Thank you very much sir
🙏
Great questions, and I appreciate that John didn’t interrupt Stan. I wish it were longer.
Questions were pretty good, congratulations to the interviewer.
Lmao John is one of the best businessmen of all time
@@Alew8 Recency bias?
Stanley Druckenmiller is the best and most intelligent investment-professional ever! His assessments and conclusions are second to none! This interview is more valuable than hundreds of other "expert-interviews/noise" ...
I follow Druckenmiller - watch the interviews - and I think John Collison did a great job keeping it fun and interesting. Well done.
Fantastic, thank you!
This was a master class discussion. 10/10. I hope my forecasts get to that level
1 hour well spent. Man this guy been in the business 2 times as long as I've been on this planet. When men like him speak best be listening
1 hour well invested, for sure.
Thank you for posting
Outstanding interview. I can’t believe this was free! I felt like I should be paying for that kind of insight from an investing legend.
Here are my 3 key takeaways from the conversation:
1) Know you biases. As an investor it is your job to understand that biases exist and manage them.
2) Do NOT invest in the present. The present does not move a stock price. Change does. Envision the world 12-18 months in the future and invest accordingly.
3) Blockchain technology will be a real force in the economy within 5-10 years and a disruptor to current industries.
What is your evidence, not faith, that block chain, in other words, squiggles and pixels, are going to the the real force in 5 - 10 years. I see no evidence of this. It is a Utopian dream, I don't see the historical evidence. What is your evidence?
#3 will be but with govt backed crypto.
@@realdata8624 Government backed or government forced like a war, forcing people to accept what they don't want, dishonest weights and measures, identical to the two dimensional debt notes. That is problematic.
I got a lot from this, thanks for the post and to Stanley and John of course.
Fantastic interview. Thanks for organizing this
Thanks for amazing interview from you two.
More knowledge than a college degree in one hour, incredible!
this was amazing. Thank you so much Sohn Conference Foundation
Much love from India
Great interview - thanks for sharing
Amazing interviewer. Absolutely loved it!
Wow...absolutely outstanding . Loved it.🙏
Phenomenal interview. Thank you to John and Mr. Druckenmiller for doing this.
Great interview! Thanks guy
appriciate interview
Extremely enjoyable content. Stan the Man giving simple insight to forecast.
fantastic interview!
Thank you. Very educational and entertaining. Great questions. And, of course, Druckenmiller is the real deal.
Thanks this was fantastic!
great questions, great answers, great intervieew - new subscriber!
Great Qs..too...great job
Top Lessons from the Top Man. Must listen! Maybe twice.
This is great interview , market does make people more humble !
⁰
Really great and insightful conversation! Thanks John and Stan! Particularly like the long story part!
What an open-book guy he is, honestly wowww. A delight to watch.
Great interview!
One of the most laminating investment discussions I've heard. Thank you both the host and Mr. Druckenmiller!
Absolutely invaluable information on the current macro here. Thank you.
Amazing interview. Thanks for sharing.
great interview!
that was very happy... thank you for sharing... ur view . n time..
Great interview. Thanks
Please keep making videos with your fabulous timestamps! 😊
Really nice interview!
Amazing interview. Great job
Stanley is awesome as usual. John is a revelation. What a brilliant interviewer!
Perfect way to kick off the weekend.
Good stuff, thanks so much!
Brilliant interview. Legend guest. Great host.
Great interview
Wow! Instant classic. Sooooo many gold nuggets. Thank you John for letting the legend speak freely. Such a fantastic interview. 🙏🙏
Great interview, Druckenmiller always has an interesting take to offer.
Awesome interview
This was so good!
great interview
Fantastic
I have always wanted to say this, and be serious and confident to say it, but what I get from this is “This time it’s different”. Great interview and a whole lot more pearlers in this than what the headlines chose to anchor on.
I’ve heard of Stan before. First time I hear him talk. Great interview.
Amazing interview John. I am floored by Mr. Druckenmiller's humility in questioning his own thinking and honesty - no wonder he is so successful!
Serious Q: Can blockchain be a tour-de-force in the economy without needing crypto?
Yes. Thru govt backed currency
Amazing content
“Do not do not invest in the present, change moves the price”
Incredible!
John . You are a great interviewer and really well done
“Its not about whether you are right or wrong, but about how much you make when you are right, and how much you lose when you are wrong”. Absolutely brilliant wisdom to live by.
Wow! How humble!
Wow. Just wow.
Great interviewer with one of the GOATS. Priceless views and insights! Flexibility and open mindedness shall be maintained indeed! Many thanks for sharing!
Really appreciate his humility.
Noticed how many family photos there in his office.
"Once inflation gets above 5% its never come down unless the fed funds rate was raised above the CPI" - wow, floored at less then 10min in. This man is incredible.
Agreed
Totally true, fund rates down the cpi just generate stanflation.
Inflation 8.6% may 22 - fed funds rate of 0.77%!!! - best get that 2yr fixed rate mortgage guys rates are shooting up!! Then depression
“Do not, do NOT invest in the present; the present is not what moves stock prices, the future moves prices.” Fantastic!
Brilliant, humble, and a great history teacher of the markets, you can learn a great deal on what a master and disciple of Soros provides in this interview. I am a CFA and MBA and have invested in markets for fifty-eight years and it’s a pleasure to still learn from Stan. Bravo on your production!
Yes. His humility is refreshing.
Far from a blow hard that is so common on most of these financial sites.
Interviewer really knows what he’s doing. Hoping he gets a chance to interview Stan again.
this is an incredible interview, interviewer asked some great questions, really tee'd up Stanley well
Stan Druckenmiller is one of my heroes with his wisdom and his amazing track record. I wish him well and I hope I make a fortune in the next recession. I am ready to face any Tsunami and hurricane. I am up for the challenge.
The man who helped make Soros so wealthy, the same wealth he is using to literally destroy the USA and our living standards and safety...via manipulating elections and installing his puppets that shove their horrendous ideas down our throats...How does Mr. Druckenmiller feel about the effect his money has had on all those who have been harmed by the effects of the terrible political ideas his mentor Soros is using to wreck the USA, Europe & elsewhere? Of course, no one would ever dare ask Druck those questions...
Gay comment!
Take it easy Noah’s ark
I've watched many, many investor pro interviews. This is by far the best. Not because I learned some new metric or chart pattern to make money. Because I learned to be great you must have humility and passion.
Omg this is one of the best interviews I have heard in a long long while... wisdom presented with humor, and so easy to relate to
Extremely thought provoking. Much to consider and apply to all trading/investment strategies.
Historical statistics
Everytime inflation rises above 5%...
1. Recession follows.
2. Fed has to raise rates above CPI.
Six month bear markets preceded by asset bubbles don't exist.
10 months later, Druck is proven right.
The bear market lasted over a year.
May 2023 CPI is 5%, and the fed rate is above 5%.
Stan The Man! Thank you!
Simply great insights. John did an amazing job with the questioning and follow up. Stan is simply LEGEND! Thank you to him for all this pass along knowledge and John making it happen.
Damn. Freaking amazing interview.
My takeaways:
- 75-80% of the answer in investing is sizing. It's the key thing Druck learned from Soros. How much you win when you're right vs how much you lose when you're wrong.
- Find what you're passionate about. You might seem lazy (I feel that way so many times), but once you find your passion, you'll naturally approach it with a strong drive that makes everyone see you as a hard worker. Stan was lazy in college, but found himself naturally working hard for his passion - investing.
- Life goes in streaks. When good times hit they come in streaks and so do bad times. The key is you want to be concentrated during good times, and be at your smallest during your bad times. That way you'll make the most when you're right and lose the least when you're wrong.
Amazing
Finally a good interview with the Druck
there is one thing everyone should consider from Stan : self awareness on your positioning and sizing. When you're in the zone, you deserve to scale up risk. When you are off, you don't deserve adding risk !
Great interview. Nothing about the future looks bullish. Nothing.
The Goat....
Just. Phenom.
He's so likable and un-Meet Kevin. What a difference.
Watched this yesterday and thought about it all day. Thanks so much!
the GOAT, one of a kind
Wolf of all streets sent me here. Glad for it.
Still watching Frank G Melbourne Australia 🇦🇺 ❤️
Greatest global macro investor of all time - who can argue that!
The GOAT
This guy is good
Huge Drunk fan. One of the best interviews I’ve seen.
Great
Awesome interview, thank you so much! But if you're going to interview a legend like Druckenmiller please use a good microphone. :)
Amazing is that man and the boy too :)
John is a masterful interviewer
How can I get a copy of this transcript, great video . A lifetime of information.
Sizing is 80% of investing. Great insight
Epic. Worth more than gold.
Would love to hear an update to this by Stan. Now that the market as rallied so much, where he thinks we are going from here?
Great video is there any plans to have Stanley back on thanks