Yea I look forward to a quick 4 years of Mayor Pete as President only to be pushed out again because he couldn't fix a depression in 4 years. Then we get President Hogan.
Odd, Palantir's relationship to Thiel and thus Vance wasn't brought up -- even if Trump did cut military funding, do we really think large contracts wouldn't be offered to Palantir?
Elon getting help from Trump would be THE VERY FIRST TIME a billionaire has benefitted from the president they supported, ever! All these Billionaires that funded Kamala (5 times more than Trump), had absolutely ZERO expectations, if she'd won. Right? ;)
Another tax on Palantir would be that overall defense spending goes down but Paltantir gets a higher share of the remaining spend. In the same way Anduril would win if there's a more competitive defense market. When Trump Jr was on the All in Pod, he gave an example of what the cuts would look like. They cut $billion on spend for Air Force one just by asking Boeing to lower it. Other Administrations wouldn't even ask. Generals others are not held to account for how much they are spending and what they are getting in return. The 5 primes will 100% loose money if this is what happens.
I watched your podcast with Anthony Scaramucci. I followed him when I was on Twitter. I have deactivated my Twitter since the election. I like what he said about Donald putting a bunch of executives to run the country so he can go play golf.
What about Cell phones? They're all coming from China or S Korea right? With Apple and Samsung market shares (guessing Google Phones are also being made in China but not sure) is there any outcome where the 2017 lineup of phones aren't just 40% more expensive from tariffs? GM and Boeing aren't out here making phones...
I'm watching this so I can learn how to prepare my future, especially that I'm a Mom of a toddler and soon having an infant coming in~ I do have investments in fidelity, deferred comp and pension and a small business owner, so listening to you guys will help me plan and prepare for my retirement and my kids future ~
Just put money into the VOO ETF it gets good returns and has an extremely low management fee. It makes no sense for people with a day job and family responsibilities to try and actively play the market against insiders, professionals, and advanced computer algorithms. You are unlikely to perform better than an index fund if your not fully engrossed.
Exactly, Kamala voters had no clue about serious issues. They legit thought Tampons in boy's bathrooms and "joy" were more important than the economy. Such a relief that Trump won!
Galloway is a brilliant critical thinker who presents impressive analyzes of the situation of younger generations. We need more Galloways with empathy, hearts and minds, and real scientific skills!
@@wesleybaker9724 Dream on. Trump put a good deal of money in my pocket but it came from those much less well off. Many of our taxes are concealed. Unless you are very wealthy, your TOTAL tax burden will rise and your children/grandchildren will be further burdened as well.
If a Trump Tariff makes the refrigerator from China $200 more expensive at BestBuy, and I'm a US manufacturer of refrigerators, I'm jacking my prices up $150 to $200 each.
Elon convinced Xi to have his own factory and has honorary citizenship They aren't doing shit to Elon. He's basically Americas trade ambassador for the US
@@TinderSwindler_ Because Tariffs are going to be on everything. Corporate taxes are going to be on profits and easily navigable by big corporations that can move money to avoid the worst of it. Tariffs that are possibly 10% on Canadian goods, 60% on Mexican and 100% on Chinese with Europe somewhere in between are impossible to avoid. The US does not make everything it needs and, in some cases, cannot produce everything it needs. This means that tariffs are unavoidable for nearly every sector. This cost will be placed on individual products (due to cost increases) that consumers will have to pay whereas corporate taxes can be split among a whole range of products or offset by other means so that consumers barely feel the cost. The other issue with tariffs is that other countries are going to put tariffs on US goods in retaliation which will drastically hurt US exporters (especially agriculture). Tariffs = exceptionally bad for consumers.
@@ampharos6585 Also consumers will be paying these tariffs aka taxes to the gov't. These taxes/tariffs will probably be used to offset the loss of tax revenues brought on by tax cuts to corporations and the billionaire class. It's basically a transfer of wealth from the 99% to the 1%.
Corporations have teams of tax attorneys that can manage down the impact of corporate tax. Tariffs impact companies in the supply chain and not directly in control of the company. That plus the fact that tariffs may have less loopholes make it more likely to impact the cost of goods, hence the price to the consumer. More importantly tariffs often result in retaliatory tariffs by the other country. Trying to get around another country's tariff is not easy. Just the threat of this may make companies slow to invest or raise prices in anticipation. This doesn't mean that corporate taxes are not inflationary. It's just that tariffs are hard to beat if you are looking for some good inflation.
1) Denial 2) Anger 3) Bargaining 4) Depression 5) Acceptance. I love you guys but.... your "global macro" take is step 3). There's a counter-argument to each of your points. For example, Trump has said, he might delay tariffs for 2 years if certain companies commit to investing in US factories like Toyota and BMW did. He could shut down 200 (of 700) foreign military bases and re-shore the money. He could DOGE many departments and get the same for less (politically, not economically hard when you consider programs like BEAD). He won't touch SS and Medcare. AND if you invite Warren Mosler on, he will teach you how government accounting works and scramble your brain. Specifically our gov't doesn't "borrow" money. If congress appropriates the fed computer credit the treasury account, and AFTER the money is spent they issue treasuries to set the interest rates where "Primary Dealers" legally have to bid. Cash is a LIABILITY on the feds' balance sheet!!!!
The problem is exactly what Sociology has taught us for decades; people believe their financially closer to Elon and Donald than the reality, that those people are closer to homelessness.
Who is going to wipe the asses of the baby boomers when they get deported to Mexico? Who’s gonna pick the fruit, and who is going to do the manufacturing when things are supposedly on shored in the US? The reformed shoplifters😂
I’d prefer we keep social security. But, if changes or cuts are made to the program, those cuts and changes have to apply to existing beneficiaries, i.e., Boomers, as well. As a cohort, Boomers have voted and agitated for small government for decades. Give them what they want.
You sold a short-term call spread on DJT for less than the intrinsic value with a max upside of 15 and a max downside of 25. Even if it makes money that's a terrible trade.
Guys - can you discuss how stable gold investments will look? I have British and US citizenship and not confident in any of my investments post inauguration.
How about adding a little depth when it comes to nuclear power rather than just saying a bunch of people died in Chernobyl, so it's bad? By the way, only 60 people total have died from Chernobyl.
Between AI Data Centers and Bitcoin mining where will the electrical power generation come from? Would love to hear discussion of investment opportunities in the companies that build and run these massive AI data centers and electrical power generation plants.
I expect USD to appreciate. Whatever negative effect our deficits are having, we’re still relatively way better off than Europe and other parts of the world.
@@JaronLukasXYZdollar milkshake theory. I’m with you on that belief, the usd will be the last centralized currency to fall, but it will be maximally strong as other currencies fall first including brics.
@@jsnx9067yes because climate isn’t the reason why Florida insurance rates are going through the roof (roof insurance, just double entendre) on their insurance.
Very interesting thank you! I'm going to disagree with the Lina Khan prediction, she's too good to stay around. I'm certain she'll be gone, but I hope it's not the case. JD Vance isn't the one who's going to be calling the shots, and we all know he's changed his mind on other things before to suit his purpose... I believe the republican senators who were in favor of Khan won't stand in the way either, and would be ultimately inconsequential anyway. Even if the Dems had won there was a very strong possibility she would have been replaced, many of their donors strongly complained about her. Thanks again for the episode Scott and Ed!
BMW's largest factory is in Spartanburg, SC. That factory is the largest exporting car factory in the US. (of any brand). 70% of the cars made there are exported. The US is a major destination for foreign direct investment.
I live in China and can tell you Tesla is doing very well here versus BYD and the other 100 EV companies. Tesla doesn't compete in the low end market, they are preferred because they are perceived as better, and more importantly, a high-end brand. Tesla does not export from China to the US but they do export from China to the rest of the world, (which is why they won't be heavily targeted by the CCP). China needs the exports...desperately.
The problem with Scott’s argument against Musk is that it relies on mind reading. Any chance Musk actually believes what he says, that there is too much government regulation and he thinks he can help? I mean…don’t we all here essentially agree?
Lina Khan is gone. I suspect Bezos’s election silence came with an ask. Scott is all over the internet talking about disaffected young men, and now he’s calling them misogynistic for not voting for the party that has cast them aside. Agree with most points. Great pod.
Approximately 10% of Tesla’s business comes from energy storage and solar, a sector the company is actively working to expand. Saying Tesla will benefit from policies favoring traditional energy while claiming solar and wind will suffer seems contradictory. Elon Musk recently highlighted that Australia is generating 80% of its energy from solar and expressed his view of this as the future. It seems there may be a gap in understanding Musk’s vision and commitment to renewable energy.
@@NoDrizzy630Nah. It is going to work out fine, we as individuals have much more control over personal success than we want to believe. I bet there are many areas of business, life you can be successful in the next 4 years. I will be rooting for you.
Big gains in my 529s. Bright spot when you’re not ultra-rich and have to think about sending two kids to college. Appreciate your content, but some horn bias coming through 😅
I think he's doing a good job of explaining the consequences. As Scott readily admits, HE is going to become much better off because of Spanky's victory.. the rich will get even richer in the future. But he also understands how disastrous it is (long term) when society funnels the majority of its wealth to the top 10%, like America has been doing for many years now
Of course we make all this stuff in America, however, the only reason why these products are made overseas like China is because of the cost of labor which is often pennies on the dollar. If we move the majority of these products back domestically be prepared for a shock on the real cost of US labor to produce these products. For example the iphone which currently cost about $1000 will likely cost about $2500 to $3000 made domestically. Most of the consumer electronics such as computers are made in China or final assembly in the US will end up costing double to triple the price due to the complex supplies of over 500 electronics manufacturers that make up these products. Certain foods like exotic fruits in particular will cost far more than what we are paying..the US often import certain fruits and vegetables from Central and South America during the winters simply because of the seasonal growth and the fact that relying on green houses simply does not scale for consumption or price. The misunderstanding of tariffs is really a big deal that is unless you are so rich that it's a none issue.
It boggles my mind when people chant "bring back American manufacturing". You're jealous of the sweatshops in China and India? You want to work below minimum wage hard labor? That's what manufacturing is. The US pays chinese workers pennies to make cheap shit goods for consumers. Sure, some industries should be maintained for national security like microchips. But I promised you, you don't want US manufacturing for all those shitty trinkets you buy on Amazon and Ebay.
Not only that, deporting the immigrants that work on the farm because they are undocumented…don’t they think that will raise the price of grocery, not only that creating the concentration camps to mass deport…is expensive
Let me play devil's advocate. Is it possible that the increased cost of goods that nobody really needs will encourage us to stop buying useless junk all the time? Is it possible that the higher cost of electronics and other durable goods will discourage people to upgrade their devices before the end of their useful life? A byproduct of buying domestically made goods is they are often higher quality and have better support. There was a time that people ate fruit and vegetables that were in season rather than import year round. I'm not saying the prices for goods and certain foods will not rise, but maybe it will spark a change in behavior that will have a positive long-term effect for our society and planet as a whole. I think it would be a good experiment.
US economy is good. Insurance has gone up 300 percent. Repairs, replacements, services, food and medical has all gone up and up year over year. Conclude: US economy is good because it citizens is trickling up.
Isn't the problem with Gensler that he doesn't create legislation? Rather, he rules by court rulings which are hard to predict? So more legislation would actually create a more transparent and predictable crypto environment?
One of the reasons Biden was elected last election was because everyone was tired of Trump being the center of attention 24/7/365. Guess who’s going to be the center of attention the next 4 years? It’s literally what we all signed up for with this outcome 🤷♂️
I make industrial lubricants…feeding automotive and aerospace mostly but things like lawnmowers, garage doors, and pots and pans. Our raws come from Europe, Asia and here in NA. Lubricants for stamping are going to get more expensive or less effective if CN gets tariffed.
The Russian GDP increased 500% from 2000 to 2008 before the Great Recession (48% for the US). It then increased 50% from 2009 to 2023 (90% for US). So you can probably see whatever you want to see.
@@kyleolson9636 When you bring up Russia's economy and the years 2022 and 2023 you should mention Russian Inflation which has been over 7% all except 6 months over those 2 years.
What has made housing unaffordable is years of zero interest rates that have turbi charged housing prices. This was followed by rising interest rates that have created a supply issue. I exoect the problem will lead to innovation at some level. Maybe we should put Elon on the probleM?
Yeah. Fair enough. But it's still a dumb bet. You can't solve deep social and cultural corruption by switching currency. You actually need to do something.
The tariff issue can be worse than you think. Trump doesn’t need congress to enact tariffs. Executive order. That’s why he loves it so much. He can raise tariffs on all imports then cut deals with individual companies to enrich himself. It helps to think like a kleptocrat to understand this.
Natural Gas Turbines will do well. (Siemens Energy, GE/Vernova, Mitsubishi Heavy) Electricity generation cost for gas is less than nuclear. And load is growing with data centers.
Correct me of I'm wrong but for organizations willing to pay the high upfront cost of Nuclear, that inveatment (and time) will pay off significantly over the long term vs Natural Gas?
By the way, these turbines are made in the US: Siemens Energy (Charlotte, NC); GE/Vernova (Greenville, SC) and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Savannah, GA). Gas is about 50% less carbon emitted than coal or oil. The simple reason is that you are burning hydrogen atoms as well as carbon atoms (it is a little more complex than this, but not too much). But what we also need is massive amounts of energy storage so cheap solar and wind can support base-load.
Notable name not mentioned: Apple. With the entirity of it's supply chain in China [by necessity accoring to Cook] it's gonna be more expensive to buy a Mac or iPhone.
Elon getting help from Trump would be THE VERY FIRST TIME a billionaire has benefitted from the president they supported, ever! All these Billionaires that funded Kamala (5 times more than Trump), had absolutely ZERO expectations, if she'd won. Right? ;)
They would expect a favorable policies. It is not guaranteed. They are not campaigning, have a social media megaphone, jumping up and down, right by him making cabinet picks rewarded 50 billion in less than a week.
@@Dn2382-y1e the level of noise they make is NOT indicative of their power or profits made. Most rich and powerful people I know (I trade in antiques) are shy. You would not know their names and you would not know they are tycoons if they passed you by - these are the people who shift gears in the system.
Interest rates will ultimately go up under Trump, but I expect them to be relatively low for the first year or two. Deficits, tariffs and low interest rates for a few years, we may see some serious inflation.
In order to remove millions of people from this country, Billion$ in funding will have to immediately approved to ICE and/or my guess is that Donald's administration will try to create a new Agency that either reports to Homeland Security or straight to the White House. I think spending will come 6 to 12 months into the new administration
‚oh you are in London, not in the US, you can’t do it’ - Sorry but I don‘t get it. Polymarket is NOT allowed in the US what is nothing new and already discussed before so when he was in London there was no argument not to be able to take his trade and he said before he bet 352k on Harris
100%, Thank you Scott for this dose of reality!
People just want the "sugar" high, and NOT the CRASH!!!
Reality 😂😂😂
Boomers are the greediest generation ever!
@@stevechance150 Xers right behind!
How is this narrative any different than the last 4 years, he'll the last decade?
Yea I look forward to a quick 4 years of Mayor Pete as President only to be pushed out again because he couldn't fix a depression in 4 years. Then we get President Hogan.
Odd, Palantir's relationship to Thiel and thus Vance wasn't brought up -- even if Trump did cut military funding, do we really think large contracts wouldn't be offered to Palantir?
exactly this. Any company in the orbit of Peter Thiel Musk are going to go up. This is how the Oligarchs in Russia got wealthy
PLTR 🚀🚀🚀
@@rpersaud562but they got rich before the government.. PayPal because eBay bought it
Not government
Elon getting help from Trump would be THE VERY FIRST TIME a billionaire has benefitted from the president they supported, ever!
All these Billionaires that funded Kamala (5 times more than Trump), had absolutely ZERO expectations, if she'd won.
Right? ;)
@@toddheartsound5451 Reed Hastings and Elon Musk are a different kind billionaire.
Another tax on Palantir would be that overall defense spending goes down but Paltantir gets a higher share of the remaining spend. In the same way Anduril would win if there's a more competitive defense market. When Trump Jr was on the All in Pod, he gave an example of what the cuts would look like. They cut $billion on spend for Air Force one just by asking Boeing to lower it. Other Administrations wouldn't even ask. Generals others are not held to account for how much they are spending and what they are getting in return. The 5 primes will 100% loose money if this is what happens.
From my understanding, Palantir's platform is incredibly sticky
I watched your podcast with Anthony Scaramucci. I followed him when I was on Twitter. I have deactivated my Twitter since the election. I like what he said about Donald putting a bunch of executives to run the country so he can go play golf.
He actually said that was a fantasy that many voters probably had, but would not be how things actually went down.
Why believe anything Scaramucci said he had a vested interest financially in seeing Trump lose.
Exactly! 😢
8:00 really appreciate the discussion on NVDA, PLTR and Perplexity. Thank you Ed and Scott
Why? It seemed rather shallow.
Please have Alex Karp, ceo of Palantir, as a guest!
He's douchebag bro incarnate.
Yup i would love to see him on here
Scott and Ed-you guys rule - really - the best podcast in the universe! Thank you
What about Cell phones? They're all coming from China or S Korea right? With Apple and Samsung market shares (guessing Google Phones are also being made in China but not sure) is there any outcome where the 2017 lineup of phones aren't just 40% more expensive from tariffs? GM and Boeing aren't out here making phones...
Agreed. Case in point - I bought my replacement iPhone today, avoiding the possibility of tariffs.
I'm watching this so I can learn how to prepare my future, especially that I'm a Mom of a toddler and soon having an infant coming in~ I do have investments in fidelity, deferred comp and pension and a small business owner, so listening to you guys will help me plan and prepare for my retirement and my kids future ~
Just put money into the VOO ETF it gets good returns and has an extremely low management fee. It makes no sense for people with a day job and family responsibilities to try and actively play the market against insiders, professionals, and advanced computer algorithms. You are unlikely to perform better than an index fund if your not fully engrossed.
Excellent observations by Scott, brutally honest. What a refreshing show.
Ordinary people do not know when they voted for. Reminds me BREXIT, I stopped caring for self inflicted damage done by ignorants.
Raging snob / you found the right podcast for your elitist views!
Same. Fuggem.
oh we know, and your ignorant attitude is why we won, and will keep winning because you learn NOTHING
Yeah it’s the voters fault. They just don’t know anything. I wish we could vote for them since we’re so much smarter than them.
Exactly, Kamala voters had no clue about serious issues. They legit thought Tampons in boy's bathrooms and "joy" were more important than the economy. Such a relief that Trump won!
Galloway is a brilliant critical thinker who presents impressive analyzes of the situation of younger generations. We need more Galloways with empathy, hearts and minds, and real scientific skills!
Excellent. ALSO... Dems FAILED to explain simply how tariffs work.
Voters are stupid. Hopefully they will like what they voted for.
@@wholeNwon You mean lower taxes on us, yeah we are gonna LOVE IT
@@wesleybaker9724so deficit spending? You like taxing the future generation that much? Must be a boomer 😂
@@wesleybaker9724 Dream on. Trump put a good deal of money in my pocket but it came from those much less well off. Many of our taxes are concealed. Unless you are very wealthy, your TOTAL tax burden will rise and your children/grandchildren will be further burdened as well.
Half the population does not see substantial debate on the subject.
The other half could define tariffs intricately 😮
If a Trump Tariff makes the refrigerator from China $200 more expensive at BestBuy, and I'm a US manufacturer of refrigerators, I'm jacking my prices up $150 to $200 each.
Let's see....$1200 fridge + 100% tariff = ?
And your closest competitor takes all your business. Nice.
Scott, Czechoslovak stopped being a country like 30 years ago. It’s changed name twice since… Czech Republic… Czechia
I laugh at him because he keeps doing it
Scott, it would be great if you could have David Sachs as a guest and the two of your debate/discuss your views on Trump.
Scott wouldn’t stand a chance. Sacks is actually intelligent. And wise.
Thank God for Scott and his friends.
How about Tesla’s investment in China? Will they replicate against Tesla?
Elon convinced Xi to have his own factory and has honorary citizenship
They aren't doing shit to Elon. He's basically Americas trade ambassador for the US
Tesla's stock rise due to Musk proximity to Trump may help offset any loss to Musk.
Can you guys explain why tariffs are more inflationary than increasing corporate tax rates? Dont both decrease corporate profits?
Tariffs get passed through to the consumer. Taxes on profit is more complicated and less easily passed on.
@@nexes300 I have a hard time believing corporations would pass one on to the consumer more than the other when both affect their bottom line.
@@TinderSwindler_ Because Tariffs are going to be on everything. Corporate taxes are going to be on profits and easily navigable by big corporations that can move money to avoid the worst of it. Tariffs that are possibly 10% on Canadian goods, 60% on Mexican and 100% on Chinese with Europe somewhere in between are impossible to avoid. The US does not make everything it needs and, in some cases, cannot produce everything it needs. This means that tariffs are unavoidable for nearly every sector. This cost will be placed on individual products (due to cost increases) that consumers will have to pay whereas corporate taxes can be split among a whole range of products or offset by other means so that consumers barely feel the cost. The other issue with tariffs is that other countries are going to put tariffs on US goods in retaliation which will drastically hurt US exporters (especially agriculture). Tariffs = exceptionally bad for consumers.
@@ampharos6585 Also consumers will be paying these tariffs aka taxes to the gov't. These taxes/tariffs will probably be used to offset the loss of tax revenues brought on by tax cuts to corporations and the billionaire class. It's basically a transfer of wealth from the 99% to the 1%.
Corporations have teams of tax attorneys that can manage down the impact of corporate tax. Tariffs impact companies in the supply chain and not directly in control of the company. That plus the fact that tariffs may have less loopholes make it more likely to impact the cost of goods, hence the price to the consumer. More importantly tariffs often result in retaliatory tariffs by the other country. Trying to get around another country's tariff is not easy. Just the threat of this may make companies slow to invest or raise prices in anticipation.
This doesn't mean that corporate taxes are not inflationary. It's just that tariffs are hard to beat if you are looking for some good inflation.
1) Denial 2) Anger 3) Bargaining 4) Depression 5) Acceptance. I love you guys but.... your "global macro" take is step 3). There's a counter-argument to each of your points. For example, Trump has said, he might delay tariffs for 2 years if certain companies commit to investing in US factories like Toyota and BMW did. He could shut down 200 (of 700) foreign military bases and re-shore the money. He could DOGE many departments and get the same for less (politically, not economically hard when you consider programs like BEAD). He won't touch SS and Medcare. AND if you invite Warren Mosler on, he will teach you how government accounting works and scramble your brain. Specifically our gov't doesn't "borrow" money. If congress appropriates the fed computer credit the treasury account, and AFTER the money is spent they issue treasuries to set the interest rates where "Primary Dealers" legally have to bid. Cash is a LIABILITY on the feds' balance sheet!!!!
16:20 - prof G 🔥right here
The problem is exactly what Sociology has taught us for decades; people believe their financially closer to Elon and Donald than the reality, that those people are closer to homelessness.
Can someone clarify what Scott is saying regarding credit markets/yields at 17:38. Im trying to get a better understating of this
To be clear, trading options is not entirely/always "gambling" - they can be used to hedge risk, especially common among commodities.
Especially if you just lie about the outcome as Galloway does.
Great chemistry, great show
Who is going to wipe the asses of the baby boomers when they get deported to Mexico? Who’s gonna pick the fruit, and who is going to do the manufacturing when things are supposedly on shored in the US? The reformed shoplifters😂
Especially with low unemployment
All of the disenfranchised white Trump voters.
why do you think so many are getting residency in Mexico, you are spot on
I’d prefer we keep social security. But, if changes or cuts are made to the program, those cuts and changes have to apply to existing beneficiaries, i.e., Boomers, as well. As a cohort, Boomers have voted and agitated for small government for decades. Give them what they want.
You sold a short-term call spread on DJT for less than the intrinsic value with a max upside of 15 and a max downside of 25. Even if it makes money that's a terrible trade.
Scott, great comment regarding investing when it is gambling.
Guys - can you discuss how stable gold investments will look? I have British and US citizenship and not confident in any of my investments post inauguration.
You can only speculate in gold, not invest. If you disagree, take it up with Warren Buffett.
The impact of tariffs on virtually all companies across the board seems to be underestimated
😂😂😂 “PLEASE Don’t short squeeze my boss !” 😂😂😂
How about adding a little depth when it comes to nuclear power rather than just saying a bunch of people died in Chernobyl, so it's bad? By the way, only 60 people total have died from Chernobyl.
This was addressed in previous episodes
There MUST have been more than 60 cancer deaths due to Chernobyl. Remember how secretive the regime was.
When did they say nuclear was bad??
Here's my advice. Long the losers, Short the winners.
You also voted for harris, so your insight is sheeit
@@tim55075about right for this channel, though
Dude that is so brutal
AND SO ACCURATE
Also a nightmare for people who bought and wanted to renovate! We really wanted a new kitchen, but we may be scaling back by a lot.
Agreed, he is going to get enough pushback about tariffs he's going to soften his numbers
Between AI Data Centers and Bitcoin mining where will the electrical power generation come from? Would love to hear discussion of investment opportunities in the companies that build and run these massive AI data centers and electrical power generation plants.
As deficits widen, USD should weaken significantly too. It probably would have already if it wasn't for the USD's reserve currency status.
I expect USD to appreciate. Whatever negative effect our deficits are having, we’re still relatively way better off than Europe and other parts of the world.
@@JaronLukasXYZdollar milkshake theory. I’m with you on that belief, the usd will be the last centralized currency to fall, but it will be maximally strong as other currencies fall first including brics.
You guys are the best... keep it up. I look forward to your podcast.
👍😊👍
Thanks lads. Appreciate your insights.
Same. Glad they didn't cry this time too.
Winners: The sixth mass extinction (anthropogenic).
Losers: Most of the life forms on earth.
In the meantime, party on.
The real winners will be the lifeforms of the next epoch that can eat microplastics!
you seem smart and well adjusted. get another booster climatard.
@@jsnx9067yes because climate isn’t the reason why Florida insurance rates are going through the roof (roof insurance, just double entendre) on their insurance.
They were undercharging and are normalizing if not compensating for losses. Florida is naturally prone to hurricanes.@@henrytep8884
Nice take on the housing market from Ed!
very interesting prediction. thanks, Scott.
Ed looked like he was going to eat his feelings last week
Feelings are necessary in the business world and to develop one's career smh
@Venom-x7t You totally missed the plot
He’s a little DEI commie, he thinks he knows the world.
Very interesting thank you!
I'm going to disagree with the Lina Khan prediction, she's too good to stay around. I'm certain she'll be gone, but I hope it's not the case. JD Vance isn't the one who's going to be calling the shots, and we all know he's changed his mind on other things before to suit his purpose... I believe the republican senators who were in favor of Khan won't stand in the way either, and would be ultimately inconsequential anyway. Even if the Dems had won there was a very strong possibility she would have been replaced, many of their donors strongly complained about her.
Thanks again for the episode Scott and Ed!
Long time viewer here. I really hope we can get off the politics soon… Vibe of the last couple episodes is not what I come here for every week.
Economics and politics are inexorably linked. The vibe may be off but the analysis is still sound.
@ I don’t disagree that they’re linked, but it’s absolutely possible to discuss economics and business without obsessing over politics ❤️
@@JaronLukasXYZCould you give me a couple timestamps that highlight this obsession?
Seriously
@ I’m way too busy running a company to do that… 😎
The new gold rush in real estate is in adding ADU's to existing properties supporting the idea of an influx of affordable rental properties.
BMW's largest factory is in Spartanburg, SC. That factory is the largest exporting car factory in the US. (of any brand). 70% of the cars made there are exported. The US is a major destination for foreign direct investment.
Zillow stock is us actually. The past 5 days, it’s up 24.78% and over 110% the past year.
On crypto at the same time Trump has stated that he wants to strengthen the dollar. What about steel?
Great insights, especially on Homebuilding.
Now we can’t tell the difference between justice and the law.
I live in China and can tell you Tesla is doing very well here versus BYD and the other 100 EV companies. Tesla doesn't compete in the low end market, they are preferred because they are perceived as better, and more importantly, a high-end brand. Tesla does not export from China to the US but they do export from China to the rest of the world, (which is why they won't be heavily targeted by the CCP). China needs the exports...desperately.
Great insight. Thank you for sharing!
The problem with Scott’s argument against Musk is that it relies on mind reading. Any chance Musk actually believes what he says, that there is too much government regulation and he thinks he can help? I mean…don’t we all here essentially agree?
the pentagon cant even account for where the money goes....
@ Neither can many government agencies.
@@TrendyStone yes, DOD, DOJ, DHS, VA, among others. its our money that they are not accounting for. shameful
Great episode, guys
What a wonderful time this is . I’m so excited about the direction our Country is heading .
Lina Khan is gone. I suspect Bezos’s election silence came with an ask.
Scott is all over the internet talking about disaffected young men, and now he’s calling them misogynistic for not voting for the party that has cast them aside.
Agree with most points. Great pod.
Both DJT and Vance have said they like Khan.
Convenient how you ignore manufacturing jobs leading to more prosperity amongst the working class, or the income tax cuts.
This was just an obvious trade. Prof G is right. The bet was Crypto
Approximately 10% of Tesla’s business comes from energy storage and solar, a sector the company is actively working to expand. Saying Tesla will benefit from policies favoring traditional energy while claiming solar and wind will suffer seems contradictory. Elon Musk recently highlighted that Australia is generating 80% of its energy from solar and expressed his view of this as the future. It seems there may be a gap in understanding Musk’s vision and commitment to renewable energy.
Winners: Trump, his cronies, and the capital class
Losers: Everyone else
nah, you spelled liberals as everyone else, winner is the American public.
Deplorable oil and gas industry guy here. Our industry, employees are excited, optomistic about the next 4 years. Trump understands business
Capital class is the dems. The financial system is HQed in NY and CA. Both dem states. They control most of the capital in the US
@@petelipson3769well everyone else and in turn our nation is royally screwed.
@@NoDrizzy630Nah. It is going to work out fine, we as individuals have much more control over personal success than we want to believe. I bet there are many areas of business, life you can be successful in the next 4 years. I will be rooting for you.
Big gains in my 529s. Bright spot when you’re not ultra-rich and have to think about sending two kids to college. Appreciate your content, but some horn bias coming through 😅
Better hope they’re going to college really soon. The future doesn’t look bright 3-4 years down the road.
I can see his bitterness.
We all can.
I think he's doing a good job of explaining the consequences. As Scott readily admits, HE is going to become much better off because of Spanky's victory.. the rich will get even richer in the future. But he also understands how disastrous it is (long term) when society funnels the majority of its wealth to the top 10%, like America has been doing for many years now
Yep he’s bitter all the way to the bank 🙄
19:06 hear his explanation
Luckily, his face looks a little gloomy even on his happy days, so not a big difference
Of course we make all this stuff in America, however, the only reason why these products are made overseas like China is because of the cost of labor which is often pennies on the dollar. If we move the majority of these products back domestically be prepared for a shock on the real cost of US labor to produce these products. For example the iphone which currently cost about $1000 will likely cost about $2500 to $3000 made domestically. Most of the consumer electronics such as computers are made in China or final assembly in the US will end up costing double to triple the price due to the complex supplies of over 500 electronics manufacturers that make up these products. Certain foods like exotic fruits in particular will cost far more than what we are paying..the US often import certain fruits and vegetables from Central and South America during the winters simply because of the seasonal growth and the fact that relying on green houses simply does not scale for consumption or price. The misunderstanding of tariffs is really a big deal that is unless you are so rich that it's a none issue.
Absolutely, the whole tariff idea is sorry for the words - so stupid - I doubt it will hold.
That's what you all said last time 😂@@DeepDive-u7t
It boggles my mind when people chant "bring back American manufacturing".
You're jealous of the sweatshops in China and India? You want to work below minimum wage hard labor? That's what manufacturing is. The US pays chinese workers pennies to make cheap shit goods for consumers. Sure, some industries should be maintained for national security like microchips. But I promised you, you don't want US manufacturing for all those shitty trinkets you buy on Amazon and Ebay.
Not only that, deporting the immigrants that work on the farm because they are undocumented…don’t they think that will raise the price of grocery, not only that creating the concentration camps to mass deport…is expensive
Let me play devil's advocate. Is it possible that the increased cost of goods that nobody really needs will encourage us to stop buying useless junk all the time? Is it possible that the higher cost of electronics and other durable goods will discourage people to upgrade their devices before the end of their useful life? A byproduct of buying domestically made goods is they are often higher quality and have better support. There was a time that people ate fruit and vegetables that were in season rather than import year round. I'm not saying the prices for goods and certain foods will not rise, but maybe it will spark a change in behavior that will have a positive long-term effect for our society and planet as a whole. I think it would be a good experiment.
Lina Khan is gone with the wind…
Scott said Trump would use deficit funding for the tax cuts. But how/why is a tax cut "funded"?
US economy is good. Insurance has gone up 300 percent. Repairs, replacements, services, food and medical has all gone up and up year over year. Conclude: US economy is good because it citizens is trickling up.
Isn't the problem with Gensler that he doesn't create legislation? Rather, he rules by court rulings which are hard to predict? So more legislation would actually create a more transparent and predictable crypto environment?
"is made in Czechoslovakia"
Dear Prof G, Czechoslovakia does not exist for 30 years now...
can someone explain scotts strategy for the tump media stock?
Can’t wait until this show goes back to the usual high quality commentary and ED jokes…all the political ranting is so tiresome…
And sort of making them misread markets a bit, or the sentiment of the market
When someone earns your respect....a national process takes place however, when your respect is abducted....a different process occurs...
Day 50: Please bring on Gary Stevenson (Garys Economics)! Thanks!
He’s a communist
Can you guys try to make the show a little less biased?
I now come here to get what all in used to give me like 6 months back
Before the Sack's political zeitgeist took over haha
JD-VANCE - PETER THIEL - ALEX KARP - this is the GOV't connection.
Last week "We are sad, but not going to talk about Trump going forward". This week "Everything is all messed up now already because of Trump."
Many many more are elated now that the crooken Dem administration is history and America can halt it's slide
I'm pretty sure they said it wouldn't be "all Trump," not that he wouldn't be mentioned.
They do have to talk about markets. And the markets are responding to the election. No way around that
One of the reasons Biden was elected last election was because everyone was tired of Trump being the center of attention 24/7/365. Guess who’s going to be the center of attention the next 4 years? It’s literally what we all signed up for with this outcome 🤷♂️
Incredible how you watch this video and your take away is "everything is messed up because of trump". MAGA never fails to be the dumbest in the room.
Professor you tds is interfering with your analysis of the President Elect.
I make industrial lubricants…feeding automotive and aerospace mostly but things like lawnmowers, garage doors, and pots and pans.
Our raws come from Europe, Asia and here in NA. Lubricants for stamping are going to get more expensive or less effective if CN gets tariffed.
Is Prof G on BlueSky?
Ed's video is always choppy when he's full-screen. Fix it!
What happened to Russia under Putin? You might want to have an expert on to talk about that because that's what's happening.
The Russian GDP increased 500% from 2000 to 2008 before the Great Recession (48% for the US). It then increased 50% from 2009 to 2023 (90% for US). So you can probably see whatever you want to see.
@@kyleolson9636 the point, I believe, is to expect massive corruption and concentration of wealth at the very top.
Putin is a poor analogy to Trump, much more similar to Yeltsin.
@@kyleolson9636 When you bring up Russia's economy and the years 2022 and 2023 you should mention Russian Inflation which has been over 7% all except 6 months over those 2 years.
@@seanzibonanzi64 Putin thinks he's an old strong man that knows it all. Yeltsin was just a drunk trying to come up.
Bro you were so wrong about this election its funny
So what! Doesn’t change that you and I are phucked, dipsh!t! You have the brain power of a phucking 6 y.o.!
Zillow is up big today!
I think you placed a spread
Cursing is intolerable as it doesn't make you smarter
What has made housing unaffordable is years of zero interest rates that have turbi charged housing prices. This was followed by rising interest rates that have created a supply issue. I exoect the problem will lead to innovation at some level. Maybe we should put Elon on the probleM?
19:40 You think young people don't know this? Young people know exactly what is happening, and they are saying F you by betting on Bitcoin.
Betting is the right word.
Yeah. Fair enough. But it's still a dumb bet. You can't solve deep social and cultural corruption by switching currency. You actually need to do something.
@@andrewthomas695 You will be surprised how much you can fix just by fixing the money.
@@wholeNwon Everything is a bet, get used to it.
@@hedgehog_foxnot everything is a bet. What is this? The edgelord teenager take?
The tariff issue can be worse than you think. Trump doesn’t need congress to enact tariffs. Executive order. That’s why he loves it so much. He can raise tariffs on all imports then cut deals with individual companies to enrich himself. It helps to think like a kleptocrat to understand this.
Natural Gas Turbines will do well. (Siemens Energy, GE/Vernova, Mitsubishi Heavy) Electricity generation cost for gas is less than nuclear. And load is growing with data centers.
Correct me of I'm wrong but for organizations willing to pay the high upfront cost of Nuclear, that inveatment (and time) will pay off significantly over the long term vs Natural Gas?
By the way, these turbines are made in the US: Siemens Energy (Charlotte, NC); GE/Vernova (Greenville, SC) and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Savannah, GA). Gas is about 50% less carbon emitted than coal or oil. The simple reason is that you are burning hydrogen atoms as well as carbon atoms (it is a little more complex than this, but not too much). But what we also need is massive amounts of energy storage so cheap solar and wind can support base-load.
Girly renewables. So bad for business to choose fossil fuels over clean energy
Still crying because of the elections 😂
16:37 folks forget that the prior corporate tax cut primarily funded record breaking share buybacks (at the taxpayers expense)
Notable name not mentioned: Apple. With the entirity of it's supply chain in China [by necessity accoring to Cook] it's gonna be more expensive to buy a Mac or iPhone.
lol at Scott having to read Sequoia Capital ads
Is there a notification when Scott moves on from Trump. So can listen again.
Elon getting help from Trump would be THE VERY FIRST TIME a billionaire has benefitted from the president they supported, ever!
All these Billionaires that funded Kamala (5 times more than Trump), had absolutely ZERO expectations, if she'd won.
Right? ;)
They would expect a favorable policies. It is not guaranteed. They are not campaigning, have a social media megaphone, jumping up and down, right by him making cabinet picks rewarded 50 billion in less than a week.
@@Dn2382-y1e the level of noise they make is NOT indicative of their power or profits made. Most rich and powerful people I know (I trade in antiques) are shy. You would not know their names and you would not know they are tycoons if they passed you by - these are the people who shift gears in the system.
Interest rates will ultimately go up under Trump, but I expect them to be relatively low for the first year or two. Deficits, tariffs and low interest rates for a few years, we may see some serious inflation.
In order to remove millions of people from this country, Billion$ in funding will have to immediately approved to ICE and/or my guess is that Donald's administration will try to create a new Agency that either reports to Homeland Security or straight to the White House. I think spending will come 6 to 12 months into the new administration
Does Krogers and Albertsons merge? That would be another catastrophic disaster.
Scott, I lost $15K on Trump winning, but I'm up $50K total on TSLA, BTC, and ETH Im holding. Sad and Happy
Scott’s insight was Allan Lichtman
‚oh you are in London, not in the US, you can’t do it’ - Sorry but I don‘t get it. Polymarket is NOT allowed in the US what is nothing new and already discussed before so when he was in London there was no argument not to be able to take his trade and he said before he bet 352k on Harris