Invest in blue-chip art for the very first time by signing up for Masterworks: www.masterworks.art/caspian Purchase shares in great masterpieces from artists like Pablo Picasso, Banksy, Andy Warhol, and more. How Masterworks works: -Create your account with crypto wallet or traditional bank account -Pick major works of art to invest in or our new blue-chip art fund -Identify investment amount, there is no minimum investment -Hold shares in works by Picasso or trade them in our secondary marketplace See important Masterworks disclosures: mw-art.co/37WwvbD.
Why don't you do a video about EU states becoming vassals in the US empire, like Germany allowing the USA to blow its Nord Stream pipeline, but you won't, will you?
I'd rather see sources for your claims in the video description instead of crypto ads. That would be good journalism. Otherwise you might as well be making all this up
Belarus got exactly one legitimate election in its history, and picked Lukashenko. And the guy who finished second place was the more pro-Russian candidate. They never had a chance.
@@eduwino151 not really. Putin may try to annex Belarus to save face. And unlike Ukraine no one will come to their rescue. Also I believe they have a very small standing army. A fraction the size of Ukraine's in Feb '22
lukashenko probably never had a chance either. If he did anything uncle vova didn't like he'd probably be served some nice polonium tea before tripping and fallout out a window
dont know about that, but art in general is a market where sudden price rises in objects might as well be a result of money laundering as any real market value increase. As such I suspect that investing in a portfolio of art might not give much compared to an investment in stocks or commodities.
When they start ramping up advertising about some non-productive “investment” it means they’re starting to look for bag holders for when the speculation bubble bursts…
As a professional that works within alternative investments, investing in art like this MasterWorks bullshit that this guy hustles *every* *single* *video* (b-but he has bills to pay) (i fast forward anyway since I know their tag lines begin the in-video advertisment) is one of the absolute stupidest moves you can make; like, you deserve to lose your money at that point.
@@_Painted Exactly. Investments are spending money to create more value. Buying hypothetical shares of an old painting is not an investment, it's speculation.
Lukashenko is a political genius who always had time on his side and oversaw downfall of many of his friends who originally refused to take his advice (He offered S-300 to Milosevic but he refused saying it would be provocation for NATO but ironically, not having S-300 is what allowed NATO to bomb Belgrade without fear, he told Gaddafi not to abandon nuclear program but he did so in order to try to improve relations with the West only to end up murdered, he told Sargsyan to negotiate with Azerbaijan about Nagorno-Karabakh but Sargsyan refused only to end up overthrown in color revolution, he also oversaw in Kazakhstan what can happen if old president chooses unfaithful successor). Because of that, he should not be underestimated and I think he knows exactly what he is doing. I am confident that he will outlive Putin politically unless killed which is also unlikely due to security precautions he takes.
Nice take and reporting on Belarus, but my theory is that Putin needs Belarus for various strategic tasks, such as laundering money, getting & trading goods, etc. in order to overcome sanctions as well as gathering intelligence. Putin is not in a hurry to officially annex Belarus quite yet, it seems he owns it already.
@@MM-un3ob but china is a very unsure partner... china has its own designs and a very slippery record when it comes to bureaucracy and keeping its word
He has Central Asian countries for all of that. Besides they're already bringing in whatever they want through Turkey, Caucasus, The Gulf, China... Putin's getting old, he's thinking about legacy.
Belarus was used to provoke NATO before but keep russia relatively out of the conflict. Plus right now they are not draining resources on Belarus-Ukrainian border, sure if RF would control this border it'd put pressure on Kyiv, but Kyiv would then put pressure on Belarus just like it does to Belgorod, Kursk and many other oblasts.
As a Belarusian I wouldn't be so pessimistic on the future of our country. Our ties with Russian are based on policital relationship between Lukashenkp and Putin and I'm 100% convinced that when one of them will be not in power these ties will be revised. Annexetion of Belarus could be rather expensive for Russia because Russia will be obliged to take the burden of economical support while now several billions of USD per year is enough. In case of annexation Russia will face new international santions. You may mention that they don't work and Russia doesn't care about them, but all neighbours of Russia will be shocked and ready to restrain connections with Russia (I mean Kazakhstan, first of all). At this moment Russia has stuck in Ukraine and nobody knows what will be the outcome of the war. Since 2020 crisis in Belarus Russia restrained our military and international sovereignty and I think at this moment it's enough for her.
Russia started its annexion attempts before Putin, back in 1995 they intervened into Belarusian affairs and supported to coup to disband the parliament. So it will continue its politics to get Belarus after Putin. Also, the economics is irrelevant. Russia was never rational in its behavior.
What you say makes a lot of sense however it could also be the very reason, for at least planning a progressive annexation. Because as you stated, if Lukashenko is gone, it is likely that Belarus would be more distant from Russia and thus, a liability for them. There is some kind of urgency in this. And the trust in buffer states is gone. Yet I think it will highly depend on how the war in Ukraine will end/evolve, and above all I wish you and all Belarusians to get the best possible outcome, directly or undirectly.
I think what you may be missing is just the absolutely huge PR boosts that Putin gets each time he announces another landgrab. This isn't really even about financial balancing: taking Belarus would serve to the Russian public, who a bit over a year ago still expected to see a full annexation of Ukraine as a realistic year-end goal, as consolation prize. It's all about how many pixels you need to cover Russia's map: the more, the better. There's no further philosophy behind it: Russians may be starving to death, but the realization that Russia is at least somewhat bigger than before will be enough to let them die peacefully.
I dont think Russia will be trying to annex Belarus at such a point in its history. Russia needs Belarus for mutiple reasons; to keep trade going, to manuver sanctions and to use it as a proxy vessel in grand game of power politics.
>I don't think Putin would be stupid enough to actually invade Ukraine at this point, he already got almost everything he wants in Crimea and keeping Ukraine out of NATO. Attacking Kiev would just give the west and NATO more fuel to undermine Russia with!
It's not so simple, all of Belarus' neighbours have lost trust in it. Especially my home country, Poland. After the border crisis they've created for us, nothing has been the same. Belarus is becoming more isolated, just as Russia. And they don't have access to the sea, so they're almost completely reliant on Russia.
This is what they said about Ukraine. Putin doesn't care what you think or how much hardship the Russian people have to endure. He just wants the lands of the USSR. All of them.
Really? I thought it was USA going to annex Belarus. After all they have waged war with 230 nations, ten of which democracies. All for their $ for the military industrial empire. Meanwhile their citizens are impoverished, middle class becoming serf's in a land of collapsing infrastructure. Who wins? The elite who buy the politicians.
Annexing Belarus would increase NATO / Ukraine's border with Russia. Yes, but given that Belarus allowed Russians to attack Ukraine from their country, it seems to be a meaningless change from the viewpoint of NATO / Belarus. In other words, we already have to assume that Russia may attack from Belarus and therefore treat Belarus as if it were Russia.
Not meaningless. It is consequent that no Belarusian soldier is in Ukraine at this momment. I think everyone - from every perspective - is wlking on egg-shells. There are maybe two reasons why Russia will not annexe officially Belarus, and that is quiet unofficial under the radar - outright ownership is advantageous even to Russia. The effect or perception or possible reaction from the former USSR states - now countries. I had not thought about that. This 2mm wedge will permit Lukashenko some breathing room, though I do not know how he sleeps at night. Many, many angles to this. Thank you for this video.
That has been the primary assumption of Poland's foreign policy effectively since Lukashenko took over Belarus and made it 100% dependent on Russia again: that it's Russian soil for all intents and purposes.
Russia's power is directly linked to how far West they can push their sphere of influence through the central European plain. From the wide plains of Ukraine and Western Russia, it gets narrower and narrower north of the Carpathian mountains and the Alps, and south of the Baltic sea. From the Eastern Ukraine and the Baltics, you could essentially march directly to Moscow from both the South and the West, and even cut the important "Unified Deep Water System of European Russia" by cutting off Volga. Russia should spread out their defensive forces to a huge area, and the enemy should only march few hundred kilometers to threaten Moscow and the Russian heartland. Compare that to the USSR and Warsaw Pact, and you could only invade Russia through a relatively narrow choke point of Northern Germany, and even narrower plain in Romania and Bulgaria between the Black Sea and the Carpathian mountains. That in turn is way easier to defend against, and the defender has a huge advantage, and even if the first lines of defense are defeated, the invader has an ever expanding front line to occupy and 1500 km to march forward. It's an uphill battle, that defeated both Nazi-Germany and Napoleonic France. So, despite Russia increasing their border with NATO, they decrease the potential directions of attack, and also have an opportunity for flanking maneuvers. If Belarus was an integral part of Russia, both the Baltics and Ukraine would be easier to cut out of supply, and that in turn would risk encircling hostile forces in said countries.
In a way this is already a fait accompli, from the moment Belarus agreed to have russian armies in its territory when Ukraine posed zero threat to Belarus.
@@tadhgcronin175 Nobody held a gun to countries heads to make them join NATO. It's funny how Russia invading Ukraine changed the fence sitters minds pronto though isn't it? Betcha Vlad wasn't counting on that as a result of his being a jerk. I betcha Vlad's feeling rather stupid and bitter about the whole Ukraine invasion now, and he deserves to
@@tadhgcronin175 So an invasion is the answer to your neighbour's political aspirations? Last I've checked Ukraine, and Belarus, were sovereign states with independent foreign policies. If russia has a problem with NATO why doesn't it take it with NATO? I wonder how that endeavour would fair.
I'm a bit confused about the language/culture part. I've met many Belarussians and even the more nationalist/anti-Russian ones tend to be far more fluent in Russian than Belarussian. My experience was that their relationship to the Belarussian language is roughly like the Irish and Gaelic, they learn it out of a sense of pride/nationalism but don't use it much. Even 30 years ago media, culture, etc. from Russia dominated, and it has only increased so I'm not sure how much more exactly the Russian government would need to add.
@@Mark-kr5go I wasn’t arguing that, just questioning why Russia would need to make efforts over the course of this decade to expand Russian linguistic and cultural influence, when it already is and has always been so strong.
@@krishnar1182 It was strong in Ukraine too, and it didn't stop Ukraine from eventually turning West. What you are seeing is abandoment of half measures and Russian plan to completely erase Belarussian identity, something they tried to do in the past to other nations, such as Poland and Finland. In short it is nothing less then admission of an impending cultural genocide, assuming those leaked documents are real.
Well that's because they got Russified during Soviet times, and later under Lukashenko. He diminished the prevalence of his own native language just to coddle up to Russia.
Good comparison in my opinion, same can be true for some people in Post-Soviet Central Asian countries, where the everyday use of Russian does also not necessarily corresponds with a fondness of Russia. One thing to keep in mind is that the nationalist Belorussians probably like the idea of reverting back to Belorussian is the primary language in use, at least in theory.
Nato did the right choice to allow us join. I thought this would never happen because of the public opinion favoring neutrality. Luckily Putin helped with that!
Lukashenko was like, "haha, this Yeltsin guy is a push-over, then I can be the ruler of a combined Russia!", then Yeltsin resigns, making a former KGB agent the President, and Lukashenko was like, "uh oh, oops...what did I just do..."
I always like Shirvan last quote. Originally, the quote is basically like this, "A well placed pawn, is better than a king." Shirvan version is, "A well placed pawn, can be more powerful than a king." I like that. It's basically describe the situation Lukashenko has put himself into.
If Russia wants to take over Belarus, but Belarus doesn't want that they'll be in serious trouble with their weapons stationed there. Same reason Ukraine has so many good missile defense systems, leftovers of the Soviet Union's arsenal 🤔. It's not so smart to weaponize a country before you want to take it over.
@@chamonix4658 Mine too. Then we'd have Lukashenko in charge putting all our oligarchs in jail and rebuilding Soviet industry and technological power, instead of...whatever joke of a reality this is today. Btw many millions of Ukrainians respect Lukashenko too. Before 2022 he was consistently one of the most popular foreign politicians there.
@@elephantman2112 My man, they had those plans for like 30 years and integration is really deep, yes, but the fact they didn't annex them still baffles me
@yuriyco_ russian geopolitics relied heavily on buffer states to protect its borders. It woudn't be an advantage to them to actually have longer borders.
I'd rather see sources for your claims in the video description instead of crypto ads. That would be good journalism. Otherwise you might as well be making all this up
As a Belarusian, I'm really impressed with the quality of your analysis and report! I hate both Putin's Russia and Lukashenko himself, so I really hope this annexation won't happen. But I can see a slight chance of that happening, unfortunately
Don't be so sure. No one believed in the invasion of Ukraine either. Including me who didn't want to believe it despite all the evidence to the contrary. Politicians driven by ideology often don't make logical decicions.
Look, this was being said about Ukrainians and Russians up till January 2022. Belarusians will have their own bitter taste of Russian brotherhood it seems.
I went to gradschool in Massachusetts. Chinese and taiwanese students never ever mixed socially - not even once. Then i worked for a large company in nyc. Russians and Belarussians coworkers never seemed to socialize separately.
Yes Belarus is more Russian than some parts of Russia. Life in both is almost exactly the same. Pretty bad. Besides, 9 million people is like one third of a large US city like Los Angeles. Not terribly relevant on the world stage.
as a Russian-Belorussian translator I can confirm everything in this video are straight facts, especially about Russian language and it's growing influence. This process started in the early X century and unfortunately is still going.
Yeah sure. Cut off the bs. It's belarus same shit as rus Now their local version of rus language that people are too lazy to bother and develop is not russias fault. Same as the ukrainian dialekt that's isn like russian mixed with polish no one bothered qith it so many years nothing important ddveloped with it. You people have no words I'm your dialekt and using russian words why not create own words Why use English words and not your own? Oh yeah u have not bothered As of.you have so much vocabulary so Many words and so much literature original words and the bad Russians wants to cover your undeveloped shit Lol seriously any group of people can be delusional But the most if them in European soil are the slavs
Guy, actually, Russian patriots and Russian nationalists are not the same thing. Real Russian nationalists do not hesitate to call themselves nationalists.
That's because Russia is actually savagely imperialist, so any sense of national identity by any of its colonies/subordinate states is perceived as a threat to the plan. So they make it seem like it's a bad thing for smaller nations to have an identity of their own, because that's at odd with the Russkij Mir
@@SaturnineXTS There is over 190 nationalities in Russia. There is lots GOVERNMENT sponsored projects promoting Tatar, Yakut, etc. language and culture so please don't spread lies and propaganda if you're not aware of what is actually happening on the ground in these republics.
Hi, I am from Indonesia, my friend can speak Russian he can talk to people from many country using Russian in OME TV Well actually he is not really understand Russian 😂😂😂 he is a pretender He speaks Russian but he does not understand Russian, he speaks Russian but he wants the girls to reply him in English ... 😂😂😂 Even he talked to many Ukraine girls using Russian in MIDDLE OF THE WAR which means the internet in Ukraine still not affected Surprisingly this Ukraine Girls still play OME TV business as usual May be because the wars are mostly in forests or open fields ?
@@suryakumairi3622 Iya benar dan di beberapa kota jauh dari ibu kota, lagi pula Russia ngga menang2 juga sampai skrng. Tapi kenapa nanyanya kyk gitu bro? lu ngomongnya kayak bot.
This is a very worthwhile channel that covers the chosen topics extremely well, even though I disagree with almost all the conclusions I am always better informed after watching.
Fun fact: Belarus has the longest lasting 'government in exile' which is about a hundred years old now, it originates back as far as 1921, when the Sovietunion annexed the nascent Belarus. The government escaped to the west, to various locations. Now it is in the USA. After the collapse, they're to return to Belarus and officially hand over the job to the new government, but this idea was never realised as Lukasenka took over.
Беларусь (БССР) была одной из стран, основавших СССР. Как же глупо выглядят эти сомнительные манипуляции для людей, которые хоть немного знают историю.
@@le_draffar5370In WW1 under the Treaty of Brest Litovsk Russia ceded land to Germany to make peace and after Germany was defeated these lands became independent and were annexed by the Soviet Union during the Russian civil war. It included Poland, the Baltic States and Belarus.
Nah, Belarus is Russia's model for what they want other neighboring countries (including Ukraine) to be. They can't sell the idea and model of friendly relations with small neighbor states if they outright annex Belarus.
I don’t know man, Putin has shown he’s not okay mentally and cannot be reasoned with. So it’s very possible after being kicked out of Ukraine he’ll just invade another country like: Belarus, Moldova, Kazakhstan, or even Georgia again.
I do not think Russia cares relations with the countries where their troops reside. They keep them in Armenia, Georgia preventing those countries from going off the hook with any government.
Russia already threw the idea of friendly relations out the window when invading Ukraine. When even luke warm relationship with western countries mean an invasion it forces a pick a side attitude that this countries didn't want but was thrust upon them anyway.
Cant wait for the videos in 1-2 years about how all these art investment ads were a scam. If you've been around youtube even a little bit by now, you should be able to smell that shit coming. Waste of everyones time and money....
Excellent analysis and insights. Your format and platform are appreciated. Keep making excellent geopolitical and realpolitik relevant content. Thank you.
First and foremost - don't buy art. Especially not "virtual art" which you can't hand on your wall and benefit on it. The value of art is purely speculation that someone later on will pay for it, and pay more for it. Art has little practical use, but there very high costs associated to it - auction fees, conservation, security costs a LOT constantly. It is like buying lottery tickets from your money - there is a small chance you will win a bit, but most probably you will get less back than the price of the tickets. Generally, consider this - if it is widely advertised, then avoid it as a rule of thumb. There is always a catch, there is a reason someone is paying for the advertisement.
Maybe the buffer state idea will prevail since it is more palatable to most players. Annexing Belarus would be more expensive and take longer than 7 years.
Belarus probably knows whoever gets elected with have a target on their head by America, much safer to join the Russian federation. I don't see why they have to be assimilated to join the rf there's plenty of cultures in the rf that don't require assimilation
It could be done immediately but would cause unnecessary internal strife... just like how China is slowly drawing Taiwan back in currently. Taiwan is only two election cycles at most from the Pro-China party taking over from the Pro-Japanese/Pro-American party... Belarus is definitely going to be integrated into Russia & no Pro-Western traitors in Belarus will be allowed to be a successful Fifth Column. That whole traitorous network was catastrophically damaged in the failed coup against Lukashenko when the corrupt Western proxy wasn't able to pull off the coup & she was forced to flee into exile (so she didn't receive the same treatment that traitor Nalvany got in Russia of being thrown in prison for years cause he is a traitor.)
Not invading Ukraine would also be beneficial to most players, but people that want to write their name in history trough conquest rarely does it because it is beneficial to their country. Don't expect Russia to take the rational option.
@Freedom Crusader how would Russia allowing Ukraine to genocide the Novorossiyans... be "beneficial" for the Novorossiyans??? Putin did NOT want to invade Ukraine to save the Novorossiyans... something that has seriously hurt him politically inside Russia over the past decade as Russians wanted the Novorossiyans saved from the Ukrainians. It's why Putin poll numbers shot up from the low 60s with soft support to the high 80s with strong support after Putin finally stepped in a week after the Ukrainians violated International Law by breaking the Minsk Accords that the UN Security Council approved. Just shows how corrupt and incompetent that the UN is as vessel of Judeo-American Empire projection... the UN tries to condemn Russia for honoring the security guarantees that the UN itself put into place. But then you are a testament to propagandized ignorance by being here faithfully repeating CIA talking points laundered through CNN or Fox News... I hope that you a programmed bot or a paid disinformation agent, those would be better than actually being so stupid that you believe the bullshit that you commented
Really? I thought USA was going to annex Belarus. After all they have waged war with 230 nations, ten of which democracies. All for their $ for the military industrial empire. Meanwhile their citizens are impoverished, middle class becoming serf's in a land of collapsing infrastructure. Who wins? The elite who buy the politicians.
@@goldbullet50 manipulation through free press and grassroots movement is not manipulation, it's called building ties. Banning your media and killing off critics to change the narrative is manipulation.
Doesn't matter what you think of the process, the point is NATO has expanded. Cuba also welcomed Soviet forces onto its territory, but America didn't care about that either when it reacted harshly to it.
Belarus as far as its people have more historical ties with Poland than Russia. In fact it was a chunk of the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth. I think that's why it even existed as an S.S.R. I could be wrong....
@@superkittyshow1782 Lmao... You ever heard of Russian state media? They sure say some stupid s***! Got you Putin groupies believing the offensives on Kiev, kharkiv and Kherson were Decoys!
@@superkittyshow1782 why do you people constantly lie, i know your propaganda tv says "we never said that they heard on cnn!" but do you honestly think nobody can actually check? Even Lukashenko himself made this absurd statement that Russia will take Kiev in 3-4 days. Look up Anton Gerashchenko's tweet "Russian propagandists complain about global misinformation regarding Russia. They say they never threatened to take Kyiv in three days." to see the compilation of russian propangada sources claiming this and then CNN repeating this claim!
@@CadaverKuma Russian state media РИА новости accidentally posted a "victory post" just a few days into the Ukrainian war that was talking about how Russia is great and is on the way to recover all of its lost lands and how the war was won in 3 days
I really want to take this channel seriously, but between crypto ads, and the complete lack of any source on the claims presented, this can only be taken as a complete fantasy.
Annexation of Belarus is almost inevitable....but almost. There are still wild cards in play; Lukasheko could go rogue and revolt against Russia, Putin could choose to assassinate Lukashenko, Belarus could descend into anarchy and civil war....and Russia could realise that the added cost of maintaining their new territory could be too much for their shrinking economy to bear, especially as they deal with a strong Chinese economy that could make Russia subservient. I think that, at the moment, Belarus and Lukashenko are playing the role that Putin wants for them - a co-operative buffer state that they can call upon when needed.
You missed China, an important Belarusian partner, who is likely to be against the annexion. And China has influence on Kremlin and got a seat at the negotian table after the war.
@@Mishanya00 China would be against annexion and does not care assimilation. China has been building "The Great Stone" a new city in Belarus. It is used as a spec economic zone and a hub to assmble and store chineese goods enabling faster delivery to EU. Belarus has been invited to the SCO, and China has officially granted Belarus the highest partnership status in its international affairs.
As a Belarusian, I can assure you of one thing: any occupation or entry into a deep union will make to a civil war. Right now, my country has the status of a powder keg and will be for a long time. Therefore, nothing will happen in 2030 for Belarus. Just the 3rd world war, but it will also divide people into two groups: 30-40% support relations with Rusia (this is not about war with UA, but that they wants be friends with Russia, 15-25% wants join to the EU), the other people would like to remain without unions - me too, I don't see the point of joining anywhere, because the more integrations, the more problems. Anyway, I hope we can save friendship with neighbors and other countries.
In a weird way Putin reminds me of Hitler dead set on restoring the past greatness of a fallen Empire that was betrayed from within. The Soviet Union never would have have abandoned the satellite states under Putin. It seems like Putins life goal to fix the mistakes and betrayal of Gorbachev and Yeltsin.
@@rickybobby7276He plays in Geopolitics,you know,spheres of influence,allies,vassals and etc.Also,he started to lose raitings after 2018 (Unpopular pension reform) and 2020 (amendments to the constitution,and reset of his presedental terms).Also Zelenskiy banned pro-Russian TV channels,so,no soft power,so he had a choice:Deal with falling raitings and let Ukraine fully leave Russian sphere of influence,or tell people about Ukrainian Nazi government who kill Russians in Donbass,then destroy them,become a hero,and put his godfather Medvedchuk on Ukrainian throne.He made a choice,and ate cr*p
You really need to stop integrating your sponsorship ads into the content. It undermines your credibility. I don't know if the story leading up to the ad is there just to facilitate your sponsor. Keep your content and your funding clearly seperated.
@@elephantman2112 Yeah, i understand, but I'm say that just in case of there is no need in pentagon leaks to see that. Same process was going in Ukraine, but was stopped in 2013-2014 by people. In 2020 belarus tries too, but was defeated by russia help (who might think), plus, belarus was already divided in that time. Consequence of this events will be (actually going on max speed right now) full annex of belarus, maybe even before 2030(if russia will be existing in same shape as before 2022(i mean after ukr-rus war))
It is true that Russia supported the 1995 Referendum on russification. Yet the Belarusian identity got stronger since that time. Turns out, being born in an independent country contributes to person's identity more than any propaganda.
@@Name-t9fbd I can't agree with you, because there is actually a few examples that saying that is propaganda can serve as instrument of influence on identity more powerful than we mind think. Am talking about Kuban and whole Caucasus. (Really sorry for my bad English, I'm trying my best)
Until 2014, we had a great time in the Crimea. Himself from Russia. Communicated with Ukrainians, Belarusians, Caucasians for the most part on the positive. My uncle is Ukrainian, one of the grandmothers is from Estonia. I am very sad to see what is happening.
The West did everything it could. No other options were on the table. This isn't some kind of tug-of-war between two powers on who would offer Lukashenko more. The US and EU prioritized the common people, hence the condemantion of the electroral fraud and violence. That's why EU flags now feature prominently at every Belarusian protest. Putin only has Lukashenko: once he's gone, the whole thing comes tumbling down. The West has the backing of the public. Which at some point will reach for their own voice.
@@xXxSkyViperxXx Why train a new leader? Lukasjenko would have worked just fine. The West has just created a situation where Lukasjenko has no other option than go with Putin. We have worked with dictators before. We know how it is done.
Hang on, your channel started 15.09.2014. That's right after Russia annexed Crimea and here you are saying this channel gets it all wrong, Ivan go back to your Gulag.
He's smart. He knows once he no longer is practically useful, he will be disposed of immediately. Putin much prefers an incompetent yes-man/lackey who's power entirely comes from Putin's patronage and is otherwise just loyal, over an incompetent yes-man/lackey (like Luka) who had a history of indepdent rule and may not be as provably loyal and without ambition. Putin wants a Governor, not a President in Belarus.
Like Shirvan said, the risk of loss of power makes him a bit weary. But he has definitely started running more toward Putin after the last NATO-supported revolution attempt in Belarus in 2020-2021.
@@TerraThink If this democratic revolution was supported by NATO, it would be succesfull. But unfortunatelly it wasn't because USA and Western Europe are not interested in saving Belarussian freedom.
@@TerraThink AAAHAHHAHAAHA NATO is 31 nations that do things openly and by consensus. NATO did not get involved in any revolution, and if it had , it wouldn't be a secret. Go back to sleep, orc.
@@Soraviel He also sold the scam with the "become an official Lord of whatever" ...this dude doesnt give a shit. And he's biased, but hides it fairly well. Not saying all his info is wrong, but its definitely not all fact-based.
Belarus becomes either Estonia or Finland after the WW2. Russia definetely wants to annex us. In this case Belarus will still maintain its international recognition like Estonia under the Soviets. Common powerful partners like China, India and Turkey have their interest in Belarus and may say a word in favour of Belarusian independance. Thus the deal between the West and "Ruchina" will be secured to keep Belarus neutral like Finland was.
There was also an agreement that austria would remain neutral and would never be incorporated into germany. In a couple of decades they will break the second part of their ww2 promise.
@@ldubt4494 What makes you think of Belarus split into 2 countries? There are no internal tendencies for such separation. Korea has been split during the civil war. It is unlikely that anyone except Russia sends troops to Belarus. So, without the war no separation would happen.
@@Name-t9fbd There could be a civil war, unless Putin decides to invade Belarus instead of annexing it with a "referendum". If a civil war happens Belarus could get split as the pro western faction would get the same support that ukraine gets now. Russias military would still be extremely weakened by the Ukrainian invasion, thus may not intervene, instead just supporting the pro russian faction the way the west would, thus turning it into a proxy civil war. Belarusians seem to be 50/50 on being pro russian or pro west, the same is true for its army. Thus I think it's unlikely putin would get away with all of Belarus as half its population would be against it, especially since as I said Russia's military would be very weakened and a shadow of its already overestimated former self.
Cold hard logic would suggest Belarus was smart to remain allied with Russia. The alternative would probably look a lot like Ukraine's unfortunate fate.
Of course I love it when he says in Washington is gonna pay for it like we always do it once again billions of dollars for this organization but again on zero dollars for us when we need it
Army strength does not matter. Belarus is already occupied by Russian troops. Annexsion as a political integration has not yet happend but they can do it anytime as long as their troops are present.
Every effort should be made to help bring a democratic liberal Belarus into the EU and NATO. If Russians see a thriving democracy in Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova they too will want the benefits and become free too, ending hundreds of years of useless slaughter.
Why do you wanna be part of that loser trio? Russia,iran and north korea, worst goverments in the worlds treating thier people like peasants, grow some balls and revolt, aint worth living under an opressive regime
@@DennanAs a Ukrainian, a true ukrainian born in a cossak town, central / east ukrainian name ending by enko and orthodox, i would like to join the belarus, russian union, and it will happen, always one people, brother, traitors are in power, if our ancestors would see this, they would die a second time
13:46 "Power is habit forming; everyone wants more, no one wants less." This is false, both abstractly and concretely, and I think it's worth challenging the assumption it's built on. People who crave power can never have enough, but the vast majority of people are conflict-avoidant to a fault. This is the core dynamic that renders society vulnerable to demagogues.
I congratulate you you're friend which is desirous of pushing you into a war thanks to what oil price would skyrocket to 300$/barrel or something and make Russia tremendously rich. You will certainly go far with that firend.👍
lol I like how almost always most of the comments are just people correcting the author or adding different viewpoints not considered in the video. This channel wouldn't last a day without the flashy graphics tbh, it's walking a fine line between superficial information and personal bias
Damn good comment. And most importantly, a huge number of people who know nothing about Belarus are sincerely trying to decide for us how Belarus should live and what to do.
Invest in blue-chip art for the very first time by signing up for Masterworks: www.masterworks.art/caspian
Purchase shares in great masterpieces from artists like Pablo Picasso, Banksy, Andy Warhol, and more. How Masterworks works:
-Create your account with crypto wallet or traditional bank account
-Pick major works of art to invest in or our new blue-chip art fund
-Identify investment amount, there is no minimum investment
-Hold shares in works by Picasso or trade them in our secondary marketplace
See important Masterworks disclosures: mw-art.co/37WwvbD.
Why don't you do a video about EU states becoming vassals in the US empire, like Germany allowing the USA to blow its Nord Stream pipeline, but you won't, will you?
bro its scam
Don't fall for this shit, their fees will destroy your long term gains.
I'd rather see sources for your claims in the video description instead of crypto ads. That would be good journalism. Otherwise you might as well be making all this up
Masterworks is worse than crypto NFTs
Belarus got exactly one legitimate election in its history, and picked Lukashenko. And the guy who finished second place was the more pro-Russian candidate. They never had a chance.
What do Belarusians think
@@blazer9547 Russias loss in ukraine will mean freedom for Belarus
@@eduwino151 not really. Putin may try to annex Belarus to save face.
And unlike Ukraine no one will come to their rescue. Also I believe they have a very small standing army. A fraction the size of Ukraine's in Feb '22
lukashenko probably never had a chance either. If he did anything uncle vova didn't like he'd probably be served some nice polonium tea before tripping and fallout out a window
@@aightm8 seems like the belarusian story is the real tragedy.
Don't fall for it. This investing in paintings is just another NFT.
dont know about that, but art in general is a market where sudden price rises in objects might as well be a result of money laundering as any real market value increase. As such I suspect that investing in a portfolio of art might not give much compared to an investment in stocks or commodities.
When they start ramping up advertising about some non-productive “investment” it means they’re starting to look for bag holders for when the speculation bubble bursts…
As a professional that works within alternative investments, investing in art like this MasterWorks bullshit that this guy hustles
*every*
*single*
*video* (b-but he has bills to pay) (i fast forward anyway since I know their tag lines begin the in-video advertisment) is one of the absolute stupidest moves you can make; like, you deserve to lose your money at that point.
Correct. A real Picasso might be worth $100M at an auction of billionaires, but you ain't buying that from this scam!
@@_Painted Exactly. Investments are spending money to create more value. Buying hypothetical shares of an old painting is not an investment, it's speculation.
Lukashenko is a political genius who always had time on his side and oversaw downfall of many of his friends who originally refused to take his advice (He offered S-300 to Milosevic but he refused saying it would be provocation for NATO but ironically, not having S-300 is what allowed NATO to bomb Belgrade without fear, he told Gaddafi not to abandon nuclear program but he did so in order to try to improve relations with the West only to end up murdered, he told Sargsyan to negotiate with Azerbaijan about Nagorno-Karabakh but Sargsyan refused only to end up overthrown in color revolution, he also oversaw in Kazakhstan what can happen if old president chooses unfaithful successor).
Because of that, he should not be underestimated and I think he knows exactly what he is doing. I am confident that he will outlive Putin politically unless killed which is also unlikely due to security precautions he takes.
People dont talk about belarus enough.
@@TopatTomwhy they would talk about Belarus though?
Nice take and reporting on Belarus, but my theory is that Putin needs Belarus for various strategic tasks, such as laundering money, getting & trading goods, etc. in order to overcome sanctions as well as gathering intelligence.
Putin is not in a hurry to officially annex Belarus quite yet, it seems he owns it already.
Belarus is under the same sanctions as Russia, more or less. Putin can do these kind of stuff with china
@@MM-un3ob but china is a very unsure partner... china has its own designs and a very slippery record when it comes to bureaucracy and keeping its word
He has Central Asian countries for all of that. Besides they're already bringing in whatever they want through Turkey, Caucasus, The Gulf, China... Putin's getting old, he's thinking about legacy.
@@LoneWolf-wp9dn I'd trust the Chinese, long before I'd give the Russian's or the Belarusians even the benefits of my doubts!!
Belarus was used to provoke NATO before but keep russia relatively out of the conflict. Plus right now they are not draining resources on Belarus-Ukrainian border, sure if RF would control this border it'd put pressure on Kyiv, but Kyiv would then put pressure on Belarus just like it does to Belgorod, Kursk and many other oblasts.
As a Belarusian I wouldn't be so pessimistic on the future of our country. Our ties with Russian are based on policital relationship between Lukashenkp and Putin and I'm 100% convinced that when one of them will be not in power these ties will be revised. Annexetion of Belarus could be rather expensive for Russia because Russia will be obliged to take the burden of economical support while now several billions of USD per year is enough. In case of annexation Russia will face new international santions. You may mention that they don't work and Russia doesn't care about them, but all neighbours of Russia will be shocked and ready to restrain connections with Russia (I mean Kazakhstan, first of all).
At this moment Russia has stuck in Ukraine and nobody knows what will be the outcome of the war. Since 2020 crisis in Belarus Russia restrained our military and international sovereignty and I think at this moment it's enough for her.
Russia started its annexion attempts before Putin, back in 1995 they intervened into Belarusian affairs and supported to coup to disband the parliament. So it will continue its politics to get Belarus after Putin. Also, the economics is irrelevant. Russia was never rational in its behavior.
I see this happening as a best case scenario for Russia.... But this world never hands you the best case scenario!
What you say makes a lot of sense however it could also be the very reason, for at least planning a progressive annexation.
Because as you stated, if Lukashenko is gone, it is likely that Belarus would be more distant from Russia and thus, a liability for them. There is some kind of urgency in this. And the trust in buffer states is gone.
Yet I think it will highly depend on how the war in Ukraine will end/evolve, and above all I wish you and all Belarusians to get the best possible outcome, directly or undirectly.
I think what you may be missing is just the absolutely huge PR boosts that Putin gets each time he announces another landgrab. This isn't really even about financial balancing: taking Belarus would serve to the Russian public, who a bit over a year ago still expected to see a full annexation of Ukraine as a realistic year-end goal, as consolation prize.
It's all about how many pixels you need to cover Russia's map: the more, the better. There's no further philosophy behind it: Russians may be starving to death, but the realization that Russia is at least somewhat bigger than before will be enough to let them die peacefully.
But Indian bots told me belarusians are dying to be Russian.
"Sometimes, a well-placed pawn can be more powerful than a King". A superb footnote. Brilliant, Caspian Report.
I dont think Russia will be trying to annex Belarus at such a point in its history. Russia needs Belarus for mutiple reasons; to keep trade going, to manuver sanctions and to use it as a proxy vessel in grand game of power politics.
Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine...the pattern is clear, by hook or by crook Russia seeks to annex as much of the old Soviet Union as they can.
Belarus has failed at that
>I don't think Putin would be stupid enough to actually invade Ukraine at this point, he already got almost everything he wants in Crimea and keeping Ukraine out of NATO. Attacking Kiev would just give the west and NATO more fuel to undermine Russia with!
It's not so simple, all of Belarus' neighbours have lost trust in it. Especially my home country, Poland. After the border crisis they've created for us, nothing has been the same. Belarus is becoming more isolated, just as Russia. And they don't have access to the sea, so they're almost completely reliant on Russia.
This is what they said about Ukraine. Putin doesn't care what you think or how much hardship the Russian people have to endure. He just wants the lands of the USSR. All of them.
We are basically witnessing the end of buffer states in Europe as each of these countries clearly pick their side.
Really? I thought it was USA going to annex Belarus. After all they have waged war with 230 nations, ten of which democracies. All for their $ for the military industrial empire. Meanwhile their citizens are impoverished, middle class becoming serf's in a land of collapsing infrastructure. Who wins? The elite who buy the politicians.
Except Serbia lol
@@mihajlokovacevic499 serbia is with russia obviously, but russia is not with serbia, one way love so to say.
@@tsenavi are you kidding? there is a reason serbs love russians
@@Specificify Read my comment again more carefully
Poland's military build up makes total sense looking through this prism.
Poland needs to develop nuclear weapons. With gold plated warheads, like the Kremlin.
@@alpinecenter i think every country should have now nukes even iraq and Afganistan to revange on Amerika
Polish nationalism and militarism are driving Belarus into the arms of Russia.
@@dante9436The US would protest as always but they have the most nukes, what a hipocrites.
@@dante9436 more.like revenge against soviet union. Made moscow rich why they illegaly occupied half of europe
Annexing Belarus would increase NATO / Ukraine's border with Russia. Yes, but given that Belarus allowed Russians to attack Ukraine from their country, it seems to be a meaningless change from the viewpoint of NATO / Belarus. In other words, we already have to assume that Russia may attack from Belarus and therefore treat Belarus as if it were Russia.
Not meaningless. It is consequent that no Belarusian soldier is in Ukraine at this momment. I think everyone - from every perspective - is wlking on egg-shells. There are maybe two reasons why Russia will not annexe officially Belarus, and that is quiet unofficial under the radar - outright ownership is advantageous even to Russia. The effect or perception or possible reaction from the former USSR states - now countries. I had not thought about that. This 2mm wedge will permit Lukashenko some breathing room, though I do not know how he sleeps at night. Many, many angles to this. Thank you for this video.
@@sis1296 Presumably he sleeps very far from any windows he could suspiciously fall out of.
That has been the primary assumption of Poland's foreign policy effectively since Lukashenko took over Belarus and made it 100% dependent on Russia again: that it's Russian soil for all intents and purposes.
Russia's power is directly linked to how far West they can push their sphere of influence through the central European plain. From the wide plains of Ukraine and Western Russia, it gets narrower and narrower north of the Carpathian mountains and the Alps, and south of the Baltic sea.
From the Eastern Ukraine and the Baltics, you could essentially march directly to Moscow from both the South and the West, and even cut the important "Unified Deep Water System of European Russia" by cutting off Volga. Russia should spread out their defensive forces to a huge area, and the enemy should only march few hundred kilometers to threaten Moscow and the Russian heartland.
Compare that to the USSR and Warsaw Pact, and you could only invade Russia through a relatively narrow choke point of Northern Germany, and even narrower plain in Romania and Bulgaria between the Black Sea and the Carpathian mountains. That in turn is way easier to defend against, and the defender has a huge advantage, and even if the first lines of defense are defeated, the invader has an ever expanding front line to occupy and 1500 km to march forward. It's an uphill battle, that defeated both Nazi-Germany and Napoleonic France.
So, despite Russia increasing their border with NATO, they decrease the potential directions of attack, and also have an opportunity for flanking maneuvers. If Belarus was an integral part of Russia, both the Baltics and Ukraine would be easier to cut out of supply, and that in turn would risk encircling hostile forces in said countries.
b-russia border is used already for russian army. Generaly b-russia is i war with Ukraina.
In a way this is already a fait accompli, from the moment Belarus agreed to have russian armies in its territory when Ukraine posed zero threat to Belarus.
The government of Belarus has been asking for those weapons for years openly.
Yeah. It's almost like the expansion of the NATO war machine east.
@@tadhgcronin175
Nobody held a gun to countries heads to make them join NATO. It's funny how Russia invading Ukraine changed the fence sitters minds pronto though isn't it? Betcha Vlad wasn't counting on that as a result of his being a jerk. I betcha Vlad's feeling rather stupid and bitter about the whole Ukraine invasion now, and he deserves to
@@tadhgcronin175 NATO expansion driven by Putin who constantly bullies and threatens ex-soviet neighbours.
@@tadhgcronin175 So an invasion is the answer to your neighbour's political aspirations? Last I've checked Ukraine, and Belarus, were sovereign states with independent foreign policies. If russia has a problem with NATO why doesn't it take it with NATO? I wonder how that endeavour would fair.
I'm a bit confused about the language/culture part. I've met many Belarussians and even the more nationalist/anti-Russian ones tend to be far more fluent in Russian than Belarussian. My experience was that their relationship to the Belarussian language is roughly like the Irish and Gaelic, they learn it out of a sense of pride/nationalism but don't use it much. Even 30 years ago media, culture, etc. from Russia dominated, and it has only increased so I'm not sure how much more exactly the Russian government would need to add.
Be that as it may, it doesn't make Ireland less of a country, and this extends to Belarus too.
@@Mark-kr5go I wasn’t arguing that, just questioning why Russia would need to make efforts over the course of this decade to expand Russian linguistic and cultural influence, when it already is and has always been so strong.
@@krishnar1182 It was strong in Ukraine too, and it didn't stop Ukraine from eventually turning West. What you are seeing is abandoment of half measures and Russian plan to completely erase Belarussian identity, something they tried to do in the past to other nations, such as Poland and Finland. In short it is nothing less then admission of an impending cultural genocide, assuming those leaked documents are real.
Well that's because they got Russified during Soviet times, and later under Lukashenko. He diminished the prevalence of his own native language just to coddle up to Russia.
Good comparison in my opinion, same can be true for some people in Post-Soviet Central Asian countries, where the everyday use of Russian does also not necessarily corresponds with a fondness of Russia.
One thing to keep in mind is that the nationalist Belorussians probably like the idea of reverting back to Belorussian is the primary language in use, at least in theory.
Interesting times to be alive
🤨
You must have wanted to say time
@@Omniversal_Numen thanks.
not gonna happen.
I'll take the 70s, 80s, and 90s over this.Interesting but possibly deadly for many.
Finland looks so fucking good on a NATO map
Woah, i liked this and it went from 10 likes to 20-
Probably just a glitch but still
Nato did the right choice to allow us join. I thought this would never happen because of the public opinion favoring neutrality. Luckily Putin helped with that!
Will look even better when Sweden, Ukraine, and Georgia are in aswell
@@sporasparel5032 and you have lost your geopolitical advantge and ruined relation with russia for absolutly nothing but following a dumb narrative.
@@tersus4967 its gonna look the best when it doesnt exist
me: lukashenko looks like a husky fella.
putin: will he fit through a window?
💀
Lukashenko was like, "haha, this Yeltsin guy is a push-over, then I can be the ruler of a combined Russia!", then Yeltsin resigns, making a former KGB agent the President, and Lukashenko was like, "uh oh, oops...what did I just do..."
Yeltsin would do anything for a bottle and Putin was in the KGB at that time.
@@willtricks9432 Putin still is in the KGB... like all of his cronies. I mean there's a reason the FSB replaced the KGB ;)
I always like Shirvan last quote. Originally, the quote is basically like this, "A well placed pawn, is better than a king." Shirvan version is, "A well placed pawn, can be more powerful than a king." I like that.
It's basically describe the situation Lukashenko has put himself into.
"heavy is the head that wears the crown"
Step 1: Russia stations nuclear weapons in Belarus
Step 2: Belarus commandeers the nuclear weapons
Step 3: Belarus annexes Russia
this is my dream ❤
If Russia wants to take over Belarus, but Belarus doesn't want that they'll be in serious trouble with their weapons stationed there.
Same reason Ukraine has so many good missile defense systems, leftovers of the Soviet Union's arsenal 🤔.
It's not so smart to weaponize a country before you want to take it over.
@@chamonix4658 😂😂😂😂😂
The nuclear codes are with Russia itself. 😂
@@chamonix4658 Mine too. Then we'd have Lukashenko in charge putting all our oligarchs in jail and rebuilding Soviet industry and technological power, instead of...whatever joke of a reality this is today. Btw many millions of Ukrainians respect Lukashenko too. Before 2022 he was consistently one of the most popular foreign politicians there.
This is one of the most hilarious 'do by this year' government plans I've ever heard of.
Not really. They already have a treaty deal to do something like this.
@@elephantman2112 My man, they had those plans for like 30 years and integration is really deep, yes, but the fact they didn't annex them still baffles me
warmongering of the west.
Belarus: *reverse uno card* I now annex Russia.
@yuriyco_ russian geopolitics relied heavily on buffer states to protect its borders. It woudn't be an advantage to them to actually have longer borders.
I'd rather see sources for your claims in the video description instead of crypto ads. That would be good journalism. Otherwise you might as well be making all this up
He is not making it up...he is disseminating info approved by Azeri intel.
Its funny how masterworks is promoted everywhere, no one realizes they are NFTs lol
Luka: Vladimir I give you Belarus if you promote me to Colonel of Russian Military.
He'd wanna be a 20 star general, at least and with lots of honours and medals.
@@4evaavfc Nah Lukashenko said in an interview a while back he wanted to be a colonel in the Russian military
@@MacTac141 Soviet army bahah
Not gonna lie, Lukashenko in a military uniform and wearing an ushanka is probably the _MOST_ cliché Russian that could possibly ever exist.
@@MacTac141 I hear a lot of russian colonels get killed in Ukraine. So maybe russian colonel would be the right job for him?
Me playing Belarus on Conflict of Nations and annexing Russia at the moment.
Reverse uno card
Bro that is an amazing game
th-cam.com/video/FG5nzipGlHU/w-d-xo.html
God Speed Brave Warrior - Cry Havoc and Release the Dogs of War! - No Prisoners! If you succeed, please video the conquest.
As a Belarusian, I'm really impressed with the quality of your analysis and report!
I hate both Putin's Russia and Lukashenko himself, so I really hope this annexation won't happen. But I can see a slight chance of that happening, unfortunately
I am from Lithuania and I wish Belarus would switch sides 👍 would be cool for us all to be in a team with Poland And Ukraine again 👍😂
@@mishkinis_88 well said, my friend
сумняваюся, што анэксія магчымая. у Беларусі большасць будзе ўсё ж такі супраць Лукі
Don't be so sure. No one believed in the invasion of Ukraine either. Including me who didn't want to believe it despite all the evidence to the contrary. Politicians driven by ideology often don't make logical decicions.
@@matich1 я лічу што ўсё ж такі магчымая. Ихтамнеты нас пытаць ня будуць, а якісьці супраціў таксама будзе складаны. Але ўсё мажліва
Look, this was being said about Ukrainians and Russians up till January 2022. Belarusians will have their own bitter taste of Russian brotherhood it seems.
Belarusians have always been more pro Russian than Ukrainians
Wait is over for the Caspian report
This is by far my favourite channel - excellent topics and quality visuals
Yours is comfortably one of the best channels on this platform. Thanks for the insights!
I went to gradschool in Massachusetts. Chinese and taiwanese students never ever mixed socially - not even once. Then i worked for a large company in nyc. Russians and Belarussians coworkers never seemed to socialize separately.
Wow its almost like both peoples are simular and have a brotherly bond
@@Silver_Prussian yes both peoples are oppressed by 2 dictators who regularly assassinate journalists and opposition leaders
Yes Belarus is more Russian than some parts of Russia. Life in both is almost exactly the same. Pretty bad. Besides, 9 million people is like one third of a large US city like Los Angeles. Not terribly relevant on the world stage.
@@terrencejones5261 life is pretty average actually
@@terrencejones5261 That depends on their age, breeding prospect and work ethic. Russia has lost nearly 1M young people in a year.
as a Russian-Belorussian translator I can confirm everything in this video are straight facts, especially about Russian language and it's growing influence. This process started in the early X century and unfortunately is still going.
there was no russian language in X century. R u a real translator?
@@ismayilarifoglu6226 lul, that's good... that's really good...
Seriously? Russian - Belarusian translator?
Who needs men like these? Literally everyone in Belarus speaks Russian.
You should begin derussification
Yeah sure. Cut off the bs. It's belarus same shit as rus
Now their local version of rus language that people are too lazy to bother and develop is not russias fault. Same as the ukrainian dialekt that's isn like russian mixed with polish no one bothered qith it so many years nothing important ddveloped with it.
You people have no words I'm your dialekt and using russian words why not create own words
Why use English words and not your own? Oh yeah u have not bothered
As of.you have so much vocabulary so Many words and so much literature original words and the bad Russians wants to cover your undeveloped shit
Lol seriously any group of people can be delusional
But the most if them in European soil are the slavs
I always find it somewhat funny that Russian nationalists call all other non Russian nationalists as nationalists ment as an insult. LOL.
Guy, actually, Russian patriots and Russian nationalists are not the same thing. Real Russian nationalists do not hesitate to call themselves nationalists.
That's because Russia is actually savagely imperialist, so any sense of national identity by any of its colonies/subordinate states is perceived as a threat to the plan. So they make it seem like it's a bad thing for smaller nations to have an identity of their own, because that's at odd with the Russkij Mir
@@SaturnineXTS Ofc.
@@SaturnineXTS There is over 190 nationalities in Russia. There is lots GOVERNMENT sponsored projects promoting Tatar, Yakut, etc. language and culture so please don't spread lies and propaganda if you're not aware of what is actually happening on the ground in these republics.
@@alexk3604 bullshit
the saddest thing is that because of sovietization almost nobody speaks belarusian language anymore
Dude its like telling people serbian, croatian ect. are different languages because the accents are slightly different
@@danhobart4009 😬
Hi, I am from Indonesia, my friend can speak Russian he can talk to people from many country using Russian in OME TV
Well actually he is not really understand Russian 😂😂😂 he is a pretender
He speaks Russian but he does not understand Russian, he speaks Russian but he wants the girls to reply him in English ... 😂😂😂
Even he talked to many Ukraine girls using Russian in MIDDLE OF THE WAR which means the internet in Ukraine still not affected
Surprisingly this Ukraine Girls still play OME TV business as usual
May be because the wars are mostly in forests or open fields ?
You mean Russification
@@suryakumairi3622 Iya benar dan di beberapa kota jauh dari ibu kota, lagi pula Russia ngga menang2 juga sampai skrng. Tapi kenapa nanyanya kyk gitu bro? lu ngomongnya kayak bot.
“Sometimes a well placed pawn can be more powerful than a king” always love the poignant one-liners at the end.
It'd be interesting to see how China and Russia will annex each other.
Never. Big fish eats small fish.
Your case: big fish vs another big fish.
Search for Sino-Soviet split.
@@joeshar. Prior to 41 soviets and nazis were both big and cooperated tightly, so who knows
GLORIOUS KAZAKHSTAN _WILL_ ANNEX BOTH OF THEM🇰 🇿🇰 🇿💪💪
@@youraveragekomodo very nice
@@joeshar. it was meant to be sarcastic ?
This is a very worthwhile channel that covers the chosen topics extremely well, even though I disagree with almost all the conclusions I am always better informed after watching.
Agreed. The conclusions are effected by modern bias.
This channel is the mouthpiece of some american fantasy
Agree
@@ddoumeche how
@@surjackeroff because he is salty with america and consider everything is america
Fun fact: Belarus has the longest lasting 'government in exile' which is about a hundred years old now, it originates back as far as 1921, when the Sovietunion annexed the nascent Belarus. The government escaped to the west, to various locations.
Now it is in the USA. After the collapse, they're to return to Belarus and officially hand over the job to the new government, but this idea was never realised as Lukasenka took over.
Беларусь (БССР) была одной из стран, основавших СССР. Как же глупо выглядят эти сомнительные манипуляции для людей, которые хоть немного знают историю.
Belarus has been part of Russia for centuries, regardless of western-supported usurpers.
You say nonsense and confuse with Poland. There was never a Belarusian or Ukrainian state before the birth of the Soviet Union.
@@le_draffar5370In WW1 under the Treaty of Brest Litovsk Russia ceded land to Germany to make peace and after Germany was defeated these lands became independent and were annexed by the Soviet Union during the Russian civil war. It included Poland, the Baltic States and Belarus.
@@matthewduehring hello from Belarus. Also, fuck off, Belarus will be independent from Russia.
Nah, Belarus is Russia's model for what they want other neighboring countries (including Ukraine) to be. They can't sell the idea and model of friendly relations with small neighbor states if they outright annex Belarus.
This is what I'm thinking as well.
I don’t know man, Putin has shown he’s not okay mentally and cannot be reasoned with.
So it’s very possible after being kicked out of Ukraine he’ll just invade another country like: Belarus, Moldova, Kazakhstan, or even Georgia again.
I do not think Russia cares relations with the countries where their troops reside. They keep them in Armenia, Georgia preventing those countries from going off the hook with any government.
Russia already threw the idea of friendly relations out the window when invading Ukraine. When even luke warm relationship with western countries mean an invasion it forces a pick a side attitude that this countries didn't want but was thrust upon them anyway.
lol. 'friendly'.
I was going to bed, but now I must watch this. Much love Caspian Report.
Cant wait for the videos in 1-2 years about how all these art investment ads were a scam. If you've been around youtube even a little bit by now, you should be able to smell that shit coming. Waste of everyones time and money....
Not long before Lukashenko "accidentally" falls out of a window, along with the statehood of Belarus.
Just like any country that goes against U.S commands/demands. As if a vote means anything anymore! Western countries are controlled by their Military.
Google Clinton body count. Good reading for all open window fans.
States dissapear all the time but some unfortunatelly come back
@@tadhgcronin175 Appalling things done by America's political elite do not justify Putin's appalling actions.
Great we need a great Rus, petty princes must be dealt with
Excellent analysis and insights. Your format and platform are appreciated. Keep making excellent geopolitical and realpolitik relevant content. Thank you.
Thank you so much for the info
Can you cover Kazakhstan? Inner, local (other central Asian countries) and balancing Russia/China/US?
First and foremost - don't buy art. Especially not "virtual art" which you can't hand on your wall and benefit on it.
The value of art is purely speculation that someone later on will pay for it, and pay more for it. Art has little practical use, but there very high costs associated to it - auction fees, conservation, security costs a LOT constantly. It is like buying lottery tickets from your money - there is a small chance you will win a bit, but most probably you will get less back than the price of the tickets.
Generally, consider this - if it is widely advertised, then avoid it as a rule of thumb. There is always a catch, there is a reason someone is paying for the advertisement.
Your maps animations and infographics are top of the line
Maybe the buffer state idea will prevail since it is more palatable to most players. Annexing Belarus would be more expensive and take longer than 7 years.
Belarus probably knows whoever gets elected with have a target on their head by America, much safer to join the Russian federation. I don't see why they have to be assimilated to join the rf there's plenty of cultures in the rf that don't require assimilation
It could be done immediately but would cause unnecessary internal strife... just like how China is slowly drawing Taiwan back in currently. Taiwan is only two election cycles at most from the Pro-China party taking over from the Pro-Japanese/Pro-American party... Belarus is definitely going to be integrated into Russia & no Pro-Western traitors in Belarus will be allowed to be a successful Fifth Column. That whole traitorous network was catastrophically damaged in the failed coup against Lukashenko when the corrupt Western proxy wasn't able to pull off the coup & she was forced to flee into exile (so she didn't receive the same treatment that traitor Nalvany got in Russia of being thrown in prison for years cause he is a traitor.)
Not invading Ukraine would also be beneficial to most players, but people that want to write their name in history trough conquest rarely does it because it is beneficial to their country.
Don't expect Russia to take the rational option.
@Freedom Crusader how would Russia allowing Ukraine to genocide the Novorossiyans... be "beneficial" for the Novorossiyans??? Putin did NOT want to invade Ukraine to save the Novorossiyans... something that has seriously hurt him politically inside Russia over the past decade as Russians wanted the Novorossiyans saved from the Ukrainians. It's why Putin poll numbers shot up from the low 60s with soft support to the high 80s with strong support after Putin finally stepped in a week after the Ukrainians violated International Law by breaking the Minsk Accords that the UN Security Council approved. Just shows how corrupt and incompetent that the UN is as vessel of Judeo-American Empire projection... the UN tries to condemn Russia for honoring the security guarantees that the UN itself put into place. But then you are a testament to propagandized ignorance by being here faithfully repeating CIA talking points laundered through CNN or Fox News... I hope that you a programmed bot or a paid disinformation agent, those would be better than actually being so stupid that you believe the bullshit that you commented
@@freedomfighter22222 Ukraine literally did bucha and youre calling Russia irrational. The war was planned and not by Russia
Its already been annexed... Ofcourse not formally or technicaly
Ru and Be just love eachother
@@god_slayer-restart In the same way Nazi Germany and AXIS Romania just loved each other
Really? I thought USA was going to annex Belarus. After all they have waged war with 230 nations, ten of which democracies. All for their $ for the military industrial empire. Meanwhile their citizens are impoverished, middle class becoming serf's in a land of collapsing infrastructure. Who wins? The elite who buy the politicians.
I'm a prisoner of the European Union. I never voted for it.
Just as US annexed EU and UK and you went to sleep without coughing any resistance.😅😅😅
Just leaving this to help with the algorithm. keep up the good work!
They also planned to take Kyiv by march 2022
It was never a plan. We heard this on msm and this is where its started
@@superkittyshow1782 the quote is misleading, but that does seem to have been Russias plan. Either that or it just didn't have one
Yeah... in the end I think Russia's geopolitical influence has been severely overstated.
@@superkittyshow1782 Russia's entire propaganda machine was screaming how "Kyiv will fall in 72 hours" when it all started.
They planned to hold a military parade and a Gazmanov concert in Kyiv on Feb 24th 22. But well, plans never survive contact.
4:30 How exactly can NATO expand "into" a country, when said country applied to join?
With soft power and manipulation of the public opinion.
@@goldbullet50 or a big country that is trying to relive its glory days by invading its neighbours close by. putin has done more for NATO than most
@@goldbullet50 manipulation through free press and grassroots movement is not manipulation, it's called building ties. Banning your media and killing off critics to change the narrative is manipulation.
Doesn't matter what you think of the process, the point is NATO has expanded. Cuba also welcomed Soviet forces onto its territory, but America didn't care about that either when it reacted harshly to it.
@@ArawnOfAnnwn I am not saying NATO did not expand, it is however simply bogus to claim that NATO expanded "into"(!!) a country.
Belarus as far as its people have more historical ties with Poland than Russia.
In fact it was a chunk of the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth. I think that's why it even existed as an S.S.R.
I could be wrong....
For the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, Poland was more of an occupier than an equal partner. So our ties with Russia are much fresher and stronger.
@@SERGEGRANDBLR well I'm not sure if 'annex' looks like equal partner. I guess you'll find out!
Yeah who didn't see this coming
Russia also planned to take Ukraine in 3 days!
Says who?
@Cadavers he saw it on cnn 😂
@@superkittyshow1782 Lmao... You ever heard of Russian state media? They sure say some stupid s***! Got you Putin groupies believing the offensives on Kiev, kharkiv and Kherson were Decoys!
@@superkittyshow1782 why do you people constantly lie, i know your propaganda tv says "we never said that they heard on cnn!" but do you honestly think nobody can actually check? Even Lukashenko himself made this absurd statement that Russia will take Kiev in 3-4 days. Look up Anton Gerashchenko's tweet "Russian propagandists complain about global misinformation regarding Russia. They say they never threatened to take Kyiv in three days." to see the compilation of russian propangada sources claiming this and then CNN repeating this claim!
@@CadaverKuma Russian state media РИА новости accidentally posted a "victory post" just a few days into the Ukrainian war that was talking about how Russia is great and is on the way to recover all of its lost lands and how the war was won in 3 days
Great work. Thanks.
Loved the white dress adorned with a stripe of red spray paint
I really want to take this channel seriously, but between crypto ads, and the complete lack of any source on the claims presented, this can only be taken as a complete fantasy.
What he says is often right but heavily hypotetic and over played. Take most if what he says with a grain of salt
6:44 the way Yeltsin shaked his hand xD
Annexation of Belarus is almost inevitable....but almost. There are still wild cards in play; Lukasheko could go rogue and revolt against Russia, Putin could choose to assassinate Lukashenko, Belarus could descend into anarchy and civil war....and Russia could realise that the added cost of maintaining their new territory could be too much for their shrinking economy to bear, especially as they deal with a strong Chinese economy that could make Russia subservient. I think that, at the moment, Belarus and Lukashenko are playing the role that Putin wants for them - a co-operative buffer state that they can call upon when needed.
You missed China, an important Belarusian partner, who is likely to be against the annexion. And China has influence on Kremlin and got a seat at the negotian table after the war.
Lukashenko will die one day regardless
@@Name-t9fbd Nobody cares about what china needs or wants in europe.
@@Mishanya00 China would be against annexion and does not care assimilation. China has been building "The Great Stone" a new city in Belarus. It is used as a spec economic zone and a hub to assmble and store chineese goods enabling faster delivery to EU. Belarus has been invited to the SCO, and China has officially granted Belarus the highest partnership status in its international affairs.
Lukashenko should not accept any cup of tea offered by Putin.
As a Belarusian, I can assure you of one thing: any occupation or entry into a deep union will make to a civil war. Right now, my country has the status of a powder keg and will be for a long time. Therefore, nothing will happen in 2030 for Belarus. Just the 3rd world war, but it will also divide people into two groups: 30-40% support relations with Rusia (this is not about war with UA, but that they wants be friends with Russia, 15-25% wants join to the EU), the other people would like to remain without unions - me too, I don't see the point of joining anywhere, because the more integrations, the more problems.
Anyway, I hope we can save friendship with neighbors and other countries.
Wise words. Belarus can do well being politically independent.
Russian plans don’t have much value these days.
'Annex Belarus by 2030' rings similar to 'Take Kyiv in 3 days'
I agree. In Russia things seldom go according to plan.
In a weird way Putin reminds me of Hitler dead set on restoring the past greatness of a fallen Empire that was betrayed from within. The Soviet Union never would have have abandoned the satellite states under Putin. It seems like Putins life goal to fix the mistakes and betrayal of Gorbachev and Yeltsin.
That is not what Putin wants.
@@rickybobby7276He plays in Geopolitics,you know,spheres of influence,allies,vassals and etc.Also,he started to lose raitings after 2018 (Unpopular pension reform) and 2020 (amendments to the constitution,and reset of his presedental terms).Also Zelenskiy banned pro-Russian TV channels,so,no soft power,so he had a choice:Deal with falling raitings and let Ukraine fully leave Russian sphere of influence,or tell people about Ukrainian Nazi government who kill Russians in Donbass,then destroy them,become a hero,and put his godfather Medvedchuk on Ukrainian throne.He made a choice,and ate cr*p
You really need to stop integrating your sponsorship ads into the content. It undermines your credibility. I don't know if the story leading up to the ad is there just to facilitate your sponsor. Keep your content and your funding clearly seperated.
Russians already have started this process(assimilation of belarus) while ago, just after few years after collapse of the ussr
Video covers that.
@@elephantman2112 Yeah, i understand, but I'm say that just in case of there is no need in pentagon leaks to see that. Same process was going in Ukraine, but was stopped in 2013-2014 by people. In 2020 belarus tries too, but was defeated by russia help (who might think), plus, belarus was already divided in that time.
Consequence of this events will be (actually going on max speed right now) full annex of belarus, maybe even before 2030(if russia will be existing in same shape as before 2022(i mean after ukr-rus war))
It is true that Russia supported the 1995 Referendum on russification. Yet the Belarusian identity got stronger since that time. Turns out, being born in an independent country contributes to person's identity more than any propaganda.
@@alexsokhin1814 >stopped in 2014 by people
an US funded coup is not "people"
@@Name-t9fbd I can't agree with you, because there is actually a few examples that saying that is propaganda can serve as instrument of influence on identity more powerful than we mind think. Am talking about Kuban and whole Caucasus.
(Really sorry for my bad English, I'm trying my best)
Until 2014, we had a great time in the Crimea. Himself from Russia. Communicated with Ukrainians, Belarusians, Caucasians for the most part on the positive. My uncle is Ukrainian, one of the grandmothers is from Estonia. I am very sad to see what is happening.
Салам ис кавкас брат
Crimea before 2014 was a bankrupt state
Crimea post 2014 is the same but better. Can still communicate with Ukrainians, Belarussians, Caucasians, Tatars, Greeks and now Kazakhs, Uzbeks, etc.
The visuals of this channel are top level.
I have long been appalled by the ineptitude of western policy towards Belarus. It is a good thing you highlighted this in the piece.
The West did everything it could. No other options were on the table. This isn't some kind of tug-of-war between two powers on who would offer Lukashenko more. The US and EU prioritized the common people, hence the condemantion of the electroral fraud and violence. That's why EU flags now feature prominently at every Belarusian protest.
Putin only has Lukashenko: once he's gone, the whole thing comes tumbling down. The West has the backing of the public. Which at some point will reach for their own voice.
You mean the lack of trying to brainwash the nation and turn it against russia
The West keeps choosing the wrong colors for the umbrellas.
they could not train a west-leaning leader to replace lukashenko
@@xXxSkyViperxXx Why train a new leader? Lukasjenko would have worked just fine. The West has just created a situation where Lukasjenko has no other option than go with Putin. We have worked with dictators before. We know how it is done.
This channel never guessed anything correctly.
Tell us more on your channel, can't wait for the up loads.
Hang on, your channel started 15.09.2014. That's right after Russia annexed Crimea and here you are saying this channel gets it all wrong, Ivan go back to your Gulag.
You've literally never contributed anything to YT in the 9 years this profile has been active.
"What a russuan assault on Ukraine would look like
Those are Russia's plans, not this channel's plans. Of course they won't work out.
I've been getting really good at sensing a sponsor plug and skipping ahead before I know what it is about.
Looks like even CaspianReport cannot avoid the shady Masterworks.
Hey Ukraine annexed Belgorod Peoples Republic after a referendum was held!!!
Loves the conclusion keep up the good work
Man this is like the third video where Riga is in the Wrong location
I find it interesting how Lukashenko does NOT actually run towards Putin with arms open. It seems he is in no way keen to fully submit.
He's smart. He knows once he no longer is practically useful, he will be disposed of immediately. Putin much prefers an incompetent yes-man/lackey who's power entirely comes from Putin's patronage and is otherwise just loyal, over an incompetent yes-man/lackey (like Luka) who had a history of indepdent rule and may not be as provably loyal and without ambition. Putin wants a Governor, not a President in Belarus.
Like Shirvan said, the risk of loss of power makes him a bit weary.
But he has definitely started running more toward Putin after the last NATO-supported revolution attempt in Belarus in 2020-2021.
@@TerraThink If this democratic revolution was supported by NATO, it would be succesfull. But unfortunatelly it wasn't because USA and Western Europe are not interested in saving Belarussian freedom.
@@TerraThink AAAHAHHAHAAHA NATO is 31 nations that do things openly and by consensus. NATO did not get involved in any revolution, and if it had , it wouldn't be a secret. Go back to sleep, orc.
@@TerraThink you mean elections?
An excellent report as usual. 😊
Masterworks is a scam, isn't it?
Indeed it is and he continues to promote it like a 🤡
@@Soraviel He also sold the scam with the "become an official Lord of whatever" ...this dude doesnt give a shit. And he's biased, but hides it fairly well. Not saying all his info is wrong, but its definitely not all fact-based.
@@playerone7663 Maybe he has a contract
@@playerone7663 Where he come from ?
If you know.
And this means that as follow-up, War Thunder (Russian game) will now merge with World of Tanks (Belorussian game) :D
Props to my man for thinking of the important stuff 👍
You are fast becoming my favourite channel.
Belarus becomes either Estonia or Finland after the WW2.
Russia definetely wants to annex us. In this case Belarus will still maintain its international recognition like Estonia under the Soviets.
Common powerful partners like China, India and Turkey have their interest in Belarus and may say a word in favour of Belarusian independance. Thus the deal between the West and "Ruchina" will be secured to keep Belarus neutral like Finland was.
No one really cares about Belarus plus lukashenko has already given Belarus to putin and annexing it would be easy
There was also an agreement that austria would remain neutral and would never be incorporated into germany. In a couple of decades they will break the second part of their ww2 promise.
I think Belarus could become Europe's Korea. The eastern half part of Russia and the western part independent and eventually part of EU.
@@ldubt4494 What makes you think of Belarus split into 2 countries? There are no internal tendencies for such separation. Korea has been split during the civil war. It is unlikely that anyone except Russia sends troops to Belarus. So, without the war no separation would happen.
@@Name-t9fbd There could be a civil war, unless Putin decides to invade Belarus instead of annexing it with a "referendum". If a civil war happens Belarus could get split as the pro western faction would get the same support that ukraine gets now. Russias military would still be extremely weakened by the Ukrainian invasion, thus may not intervene, instead just supporting the pro russian faction the way the west would, thus turning it into a proxy civil war.
Belarusians seem to be 50/50 on being pro russian or pro west, the same is true for its army. Thus I think it's unlikely putin would get away with all of Belarus as half its population would be against it, especially since as I said Russia's military would be very weakened and a shadow of its already overestimated former self.
Putin= Megatron, Lukashenko= Strarscream
Pretty much.
Except I would say that
Xi Jingping = Megatron
Putin = Starscream
Lukashenko = ....I dunno, Starscream's footstool, maybe?
Good analogy. Autobots die. Primes die. But Megatron always survives for the next movie.
@@kth6736And yet Autobots come back and beat Megatron's ass in the end.
@@mydogisglowing yet they die in tears and megatron lives on for next movie. 🤣
@@Ashadow700 more like
Xi: Megatron
Putin: Soundwave
Lukashenko: Ravage, the dog cassette minion of Soundwave.
Excellent video as always
In the good old days this was called “anschluss” now it’s called annexation.
"Heim ins Rrrrrrreich"? XD
russia is becoming more and more like nazi germany each day.
I genuinely cringed reading this
Hi Shirvan, what software/platform do you use for the maps? Another great video btw!
I'm curious too
Once the Masterworks scam ad played you lost all credibility
Cold hard logic would suggest Belarus was smart to remain allied with Russia. The alternative would probably look a lot like Ukraine's unfortunate fate.
I think Russia benefits from Belarus as an independant but closely allied country. Belarus will stay as it is now.
that's assuming the government of Russia is a rational actor, which it has repeatedly proven it isn't.
Of course I love it when he says in Washington is gonna pay for it like we always do it once again billions of dollars for this organization but again on zero dollars for us when we need it
Considering Russia has the 2nd weakest army in Ukraine, the Belarusians don't have a lot to worry about.
Funny joke Kyle 🤓
Army strength does not matter. Belarus is already occupied by Russian troops. Annexsion as a political integration has not yet happend but they can do it anytime as long as their troops are present.
So if Russia's army is "the 2nd weakest army in Ukraine" then the first weakest army must be Ukrainian's one?
@@Max_Jacoby he meant second strongest probably
u forgot to paint Sweden blue....lol
I think at the time Sweden was not into Nato.
Excellent and Outstanding!!!
Shirvan your writing is always fantastic! Even by a native English speaker's standards!
You always come up with an interesting angle in your analysis. Belarus may prove difficult to swallow into Russia.
Every effort should be made to help bring a democratic liberal Belarus into the EU and NATO. If Russians see a thriving democracy in Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova they too will want the benefits and become free too, ending hundreds of years of useless slaughter.
As a person of Belarusian heritage, I support the full integration of Belarus into the Federation
Why do you wanna be part of that loser trio? Russia,iran and north korea, worst goverments in the worlds treating thier people like peasants, grow some balls and revolt, aint worth living under an opressive regime
@@DennanAs a Ukrainian, a true ukrainian born in a cossak town, central / east ukrainian name ending by enko and orthodox, i would like to join the belarus, russian union, and it will happen, always one people, brother, traitors are in power, if our ancestors would see this, they would die a second time
13:46 "Power is habit forming; everyone wants more, no one wants less."
This is false, both abstractly and concretely, and I think it's worth challenging the assumption it's built on. People who crave power can never have enough, but the vast majority of people are conflict-avoidant to a fault. This is the core dynamic that renders society vulnerable to demagogues.
Anti Russian propaganda ✋✋
🇮🇷❤️🇧🇾🇷🇺
Khomeni is a kaffir
@@FF-le3ps
No he was chosen by the almighty God to do magnificent job which chances the world for ever.
I congratulate you you're friend which is desirous of pushing you into a war thanks to what oil price would skyrocket to 300$/barrel or something and make Russia tremendously rich. You will certainly go far with that firend.👍
"Relevance deprivation syndrome" 😅
Great as always
lol I like how almost always most of the comments are just people correcting the author or adding different viewpoints not considered in the video. This channel wouldn't last a day without the flashy graphics tbh, it's walking a fine line between superficial information and personal bias
Damn good comment. And most importantly, a huge number of people who know nothing about Belarus are sincerely trying to decide for us how Belarus should live and what to do.