Russia's Catastrophic Oil & Gas Problem
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 พ.ค. 2022
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This is the longest video I have ever posted to TH-cam. If you want to watch even more of my content, I've created nearly 5 hours' worth of additional videos in my Modern Conflicts series on Nebula. This month's episode covers the Russian intervention in the Syrian Civil War here: bit.ly/3t1PWej There are 14 total episodes ranging from the Russian Invasion of Georgia to the US Invasion of Iraq; I'm releasing a brand new episode every month; and the best way to sign up is for less than $15 a year through the CuriosityStream/Nebula bundle deal here curiositystream.com/?coupon=reallifelore
@@hellrey6029 be gone bot!
READ MY NAME!!!!!!
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READ MY NAME!!!!!!
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READ MY NAME!!!!!!
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READ MY NAME!!!!!!
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Shutting down nuclear energy in favour of fossil fuels was simply insane. The nuclear powerplants in Germany were under no risk of tsunamis, earthquakes etc and we already knew CO2 emissions were a big contributor to climate change. Fission uses tiny amounts of fuel for the same energy output with no direct CO2 emissions (and because the fuel amounts are tiny the transport isn't a major environmental impact either). If you're going to downscale fission the only thing to replace it should be renewables, if you can't handle that load with renewables,don't downscale fission...
People got incredibly scared of anything nuclear during that era. It is incredibly frustrating hearing just how much shit got scuffed due to that scare, and how reluctant people still are to the idea of nuclear power, despite it being objectively the best solution.
I wonder if there was a wealthy and influential group that was really happy to bankroll anti nuclear efforts in order to increase fossil fuel use
My prof said nuclear plants aren't really that bad at all
Imagine instead of school shooters, we had, corporate interest terrorists hitting up reactors >.> For money.
Wait for the real life lore on nuclear power?
Just the day before this video was published, the EU banned 2/3rds of russian oil imports and is expected to decrease its russian oil consumption by over 90%. Meanwhile multiple European countries (baltics, Poland, Finland, Netherlands) have been cut off natural gas by gazprom.
READ MY NAME!!!!!!!
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@@amanahmad1110 it was on the news atleast in the netherlands
@@amanahmad1110 Russian Demanded to Pay for Using Their Gas in Russian Currency Rubble ,As Western Countries can't keep Thier Ego , Gasprom Cutt them off 😅
It's summer, we'll survive
@@amanahmad1110 Also they will Quote the Western Source to feed their narrative 😂😂😂 Another Western Imperialism on Horizon . They Just can't Get over Colonial Mindset .
Imagine researching enough material to assemble 40 uninterrupted minutes of insight on a relevant global topic. Also remember, editing out mistakes and keeping tabs on which lines are good enough to make the cut.
Then spend time creating all the graphics and animations to illustrate the topic. Thank you so much
Another TH-camr called Perun has been putting information about the war in Ukraine since it started. worth looking into
@@Ben..... Perun is an excellent channel, epsecially on economic and other topics that require much analysis. There videos are long, usually about an hour, but very detailed and well researched - and not biased.
are you somekinda shill these propagandists infested the comments with ?
While I agree it is impressive I think that near half of this video is “rephrased” or more likely plagiarized from a book call “The New Map” by Daniel Yergin. This distilled version is great but the book is worth a read. Would be nice if they cited sources in these videos.
By far, one of the most compelling and well-researched videos on this topic. Clear animations and maps that tell the whole story. So gratifying to see this platform used in a way that is relevant and impactful. Independent journalism at its finest! Subbed to CS and Nebula to watch more of your content. Thank you, sir!
Steve, Whilst it may be compelling and the research must have been extensive, the video is still misleading on a number of points.
1/ The video infers that Ukraine was the only country holding nuclear weapons outside of Russia. IT WAS NOT. Both Kazakhstan and Belarus also held Soviet nuclear weapons and I think that I am right in saying that Kazakhstan had the most. The defining agreement over these is the "Budapest Memoranda" which covered a multitude of housekeeping but it was a memorandum of December 1994 that was the crucial one concerning the nuclear weapons. He is right to say that, IN BROAD TERMS, hedged about with all kinds of caveats, that UK, Russia and USA guarenteed the borders of Ukraine ... but the memorandum was concerning Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. France and China also gave guarentees under another memorandum. Without the one with China, Kazakhstan which shared and shares a long border with Chinese territory would not have given up the weapons.
2/Sunshine is quite wrong to say that the weapons were useless because the launch codes were held by the Russian military. They could have been pulled apart and re-assembled into independent weapons, each with a power many times greater than Hiroshima and if the Kazakhs or Ukrainians had secretly stationed them just a few miles from Russian territory, there was nothing the Russians could have done about it other than risk nuclear war by trying to seize the repurposed weapons. It would take time to reach them from the common borders and only seconds to launch them. The Russians were desperate to get them back. Only Aleksandr Lukashenko, the dictator of Belarus is in bed with Russia (only since Vlad came to power) and it is much to Vlad's embarrassment and threat to his dignity that Vlad has too suffer Aleksandr very publicly enjoying a bit of fun, pulling Vlad's tail at their frequent meetings. Aleksandr seems to see Vlad as his favourite nephew. After all, Aleksandr has been "boss" in Belarus for a lot longer than Vlad has been "boss" in Russia.
3/Until 1954, Crimea had been part of the Russian Federation. At that time, the prospect of the collapse of the Soviet Union existed only in the wildest dreams of right-wing U.S. loonies. Crimea was transferred to the administration of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. It was a tidying up exercise concerning who would have responsibility for emptying the dustbins. In 1991, a military coup was mounted against Mikhail Gorbachev, the president of the Soviet Union. He was arrested and held at his villa on Crimea.Under the leadership of the RUSSIAN president, Boris Yeltsin, the military coup was resisted. The Russian Parliament building came under artillery bombardment but the Russian Parliament defended by loyal troops held out. Boris Yeltsin organised Mikhail's rescue and brought him back to Moscow but Mikhail's power as SOVIET president had evaporated. The coup fell into chaos and the parliaments of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus formed an alliance known as "The Commonwealth of Independent States". Mikhail appeared on television and effectively abolished the Soviet Union and wished everyone the best of luck. The "Commonwealth" cut all of the other republics adrift, all of which became independent states. Only the Baltics, Ukraine and Russia itself maintained any form of democracy and from the election of Vladimir Putin, Russian democracy began to fall apart. The video concentrates on oil and gas as Vlad's driving force, but every bit as important is Vlad, the ex-KGB officer's depression at the collapse of the "police state" Soviet Union and his long term dream of re-establishing the Soviet Union. He has declared the fall of the Soviet Union to be the greatest tragedy to befall Russia. Ukraine maintaining control of Crimea has been the biggest and sharpest stone in Vlad's right shoe (Have you noticed the way that Vlad walks). The problem for Vlad was that a/ the new Russian Federation under Boris Yeltsin did not raise any objection to Ukraine hanging onto Crimea when the "Commonwealth" was declared and b/ there was a minor matter of the BUDAPEST MEMORANDUM and Russia's solemn undertakings concerning borders. Crimea was in Ukraine as a result of the Commonwealth and the Memorandum effectively removed any lingering claim that Russia may have had under any kind of obscure international law. Regardless of the Memorandum, Crimea was a wound that Vlad could not stand. The oil and gas was a nice bonus but nothing more. Again, whilst the potential gas fields to the east of the Dnipro
may be a nice bonus, the real aggression there is "recovery" of Soviet territory. Whilst this video promotes the oil and gas arguement as the compelling reason for the invasion, and I can understand how it might have been on the scales in deciding "Do we invade or do we not". I believe the "compelling" reason is, as far as possible, the re-creation of the glory days of the Soviet Union.
4/ At one point, when discussing the oil price, sunshine said that the oil price fell to MINUS $37. It didn't. Oil "futures" fell to minus $37 but the market price of oil has ALWAYS been in positive territory. Tell me, why would the Russians pay foreigners to take away what is still seen as a valuable resource and thereby depress the price further ? If the price fell below the cost of production, they would just have shut down the wells. NO ! Those gamblers who found themselves having contracted to pay far too much for futures contracts thinking the price of oil would go up, got their fingers very nastily burnt when the price fell. They had gambled with money which they did not have. They paid others to take the burning contracts off of their hands before the futures contracts set fire to their shirts as well. When the price of the black stuff fell, none of the oil producers were satisfying their avarice but there was still a nice little profit over and above the price of production.
It is a very good video, but it’s very well known Russia and almost every other dictator’s power left is oil. Why I am very for green and nuclear power.
So it’s all about Putin’s greed and oil
@@terryhoath1983 >he video concentrates on oil and gas as Vlad's driving force, but every bit as important is Vlad, the ex-KGB officer's depression at the collapse of the "police state" Soviet Union and his long term dream of re-establishing the Soviet Union. He has declared the fall of the Soviet Union to be the greatest tragedy to befall Russia.
He is not trying to re-establish the Soviet Union, only its shadow at best through some kind of fucked up necromancy ritual. He is widely known locally to be a staunching *anti-communist who hates Marxism* which he views as an alien "Western ideology", and denounces Lenin for "planting a ticking time bomb under Russia". be The way he perceives and treats USSR is as if it was the direct continuation of the tsarist empire which Russian Spirit has somehow survived through the "evil commies tried to erase Russian national identity" period. He views USSR as simply the Great Country That Was Great, and he deliberately uses the "I'll make Russia Great Again Just Like The Soviet Union Was, But Don't Ask Me About Cheap Ice Cream Because It's In The Past" rhetoric to appeal to the local conservative, nationalist and ultra-nationalist reactionaries who treat the Soviet Union in the same manner, as The Russia That Was Once Great.
Also, are you aware of know who his main "greatest Russian leader" direct source of political inspiration is? Tsar Alexander III. Yeah, quite hysterical.
It is not. Author just sucked from the finger some rational ideas. But in fact everything is much simpler. Empire must have "ancient history". And russia history says they all came from Kyiv, so or they have it, or they are not so great as their history books say. Second reason - if russia doesn't war outside - it starts war inside. That is how empires work. Or they grow or they collapse, but they can just stand still.
The causality between oil prices and Russian wars goes both ways. Not only are Russians better able to afford wars when prices are up, prices also go up in anticipation of a war and related supply chain disruptions and possible reduction in supply.
Well one of the things this video lies about is that USSR was stagnating in the 50-60, and prospering in 70-80, when gas prices went up. In fact USSR was on full rise until Brezhnev came to power, and stagnated in most high oil prices time.
@@Head_Coach
Russia thinks it's more important than it is.
Russia is energy and food self sufficient and the rest of the stuff can be produced domestically or bought from China!
However, Europe trying actually switch sources of energy, grain and fertilizer will cause devastating inflation and economic hardship on their citizens!
If Russia comes out unscathed and European people suffer with food and energy prices going through the roof, who sanctioned who??
Most European governments will get the boot for their blind support for US policies!
RLL is out here with a weird agenda
@@fwfeo What do you think is going to happen if the west just rolls over and takes it? Russia is not going to stop.
Do you look forward to another world war or soemthing?
Honest to God, this is one of the most interesting explanations of how we reached the current geopolitical state. Very well done. Thank you for putting the time to do this.
War is always about oil and gas.
@@TomCruz54321 For real, Ive been telling everyone to shut off CNN / Fox / MSNBC / BBC and do some research. All Wars are about resources, yet people are calling eachother Nazis, and Fascists, etc.
Great but scary 😳
Luckily it's not about running out of resources, rather it's the over abundance of them effecting profitability.
@@WitchMedusa For now, long term the cost will rise exponentially. The US will remain dependent on crude oil imports as we have never come close to meeting our demand despite what some politicians tell the public.
Geology doesn't lie, politicians do.
I find these videos fascinating because I worked on the pipelines over here in the US. So seeing some of these other projects is very enlightening.
It's propaganda, search other sources to create your own opinion
@@luisalfonso8888 hahahahaha
Excellent! Thanks a lot for this kind of objective and very insightful content! Keep up the good work
Good to have a better understanding of energy issues Russia & surrounding nations. Plenty of oil & natural gas to go around for many decades. With the reduction of oil.
This 39 minute video deserved to be 39 minutes. Everything was super detailed and super important. Thanks for this
This is why RealLifeLore is the GOAT
Except for the last 4 minutes
I like how he lightly breezed over the fact that Ukraine has been stealing Gas from Russia for 20+ yrs.
Also not much mention of USA protecting their FIAT Petrodollars by intervening in Ukraine 2014.
Did he even bother to consider how Libya was trying to re-establish a Gold Standard currency for Africa & Middle East?
Then NATO went in and bombed Libya food production facilities and killed Ghedaffi.
Likewise, India, China, and Russia want a Gold based currency for International Trade.
Even the EU hates having to buy & sell in US Petrodollars.
Hence the only ones with his subjective opinion, are those who rely upon the same FIAT / FAKE US Petrodollars for their Income.
That's what is really at risk here in Ukraine - the US Petrodollar World Dominance.
Russia aims to take it down and end USA dominance / interference in global activities.
Even the Arabs have had a gut full of USA manipulation and divisiveness.
This is the beginning of the end for the USA. The whole world hates the USA and it's corrupt influence.
South America, Africa, Europe, Asia.. they all hate the USA, their broken promises, lies, deception, greed, lust, power, etc...
BYE BYE USA!
@@delawarecop funniest comment of the week
@@cerjmedia
All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as self-evident
"Moscow persists that any pipeline beneath the Caspian Sea would be unacceptable for **environmental** reasons"
I laughed out loud at this part
Exactly... That's almost like if they restricted it because of gay pride going that way every year. How the fck can anyone believe that "nazis" or "biolabs" or anything like that is the reason for this war is beyond me.
Actually Russia's pretty genuine on this one.
@@cisium1184 The Russian government is NEVER genuine. Hence the peoples' joke about 'Russian truth' (as they would be arrested for using the word 'lies').
they would pump all there oil in the sea if they thougt it would make them money!
@@bdbbdb8437 I think you are confusing Russia with the USA if you would like to compare oil spillages into the world's seas.
This is the best documentary videos I have seen in a long time. I plan on checking our curiosity stream and Nebula too.
Glad I have subscribed to Nebula. Will watch your portfolio
Same issue as Venezuela, huge oil reserves but when it comes to other industrial products the country has nothing, a nation fully dependent of one market no matter what amount of reservers it has is totally doomed to fail
Then perhaps you want to check how much wheat russia have been producing since the 2014 sanction? Jeez how clueless some people can be. I wonder is it because they only watched biased media?
Middle east in a nutshell lol. The majority of their wealth is oil related.
@@harukrentz435 Do you think wheat can generate the same or more income as oil? there are so many regions in the world where wheat is produced in massive amounts but a few have huge reserves of oil as Russia, as well as oil is obviously more valuable than wheat
Russia produces way more vital commodities than Venezuela.
Russia has whest and fertiliser monopolies. This video is crap.
Like he said in the video, oil is a dangerous thing to be overly dependent on. Whether you produce it or not. One day its going to run dry and we're gonna be pretty panicky
That is actually at the core of Venezuelan demise, they only had oil, and then they became too expensive for the world when other countries started digging it
Water is going to become a problem before oil, then we'll see real panic
@@DjKryx Venezuelan oil is certainly not too expensive to drill lol. There's more competiton now, sure, but the country has extnsive infrastructure. The main thing messing with the chavista regime is all the sanctions that they brought upon themselves through the destruction of democracy in Vzla.
When won't be alive to see end oil ends
There's likely enough oil reserves to last us for hundreds of years. Only problem is that it'll get more expensive to tap into them over time, as the easy-to-drill stuff becomes more scarce. Shale and deepwater exploration open up possibilities, but are more expensive and bring other problems. Best to wean ourselves off of oil as much as possible.
Great content! Awesome and easy understandable. Thank you
I am both grateful for your widely accessible content, and for the extra step between the vast public and possibly extremely evocative content.
Russia: A pipeline across the Caspian is dangerous!
Also Russia: Nord Stream 1 and 2, are 100% safe. We shall proceed.
Also under the Black Sea towards Turkey and Greece. Blue Stream and TurkStream.
If you dont build it, its dangerous.
Its almost comical
American hypocrisy is everywhere a match for Russian hypocrisy. We toppled the 1st democratically elected president of Iran in 1953 because we stand for freedom and democracy. And last week the NY Times wrote about Haiti, where we again engineered a coup 1 yr after the 1st democratically elected president of the country took office. (2004)
EU is pretty much dead
It is truly fascinating how a small country like Azerbaijan succeeded in building diplomatic relationships with both the West and Russia. Baku-Tbilisi-Jeyhan is a phenomenal project .
Yeah they're really smart. I hope they don't face the same situation in ukraine
Don't forget the nabbuco project that flopped a long time ago, that could be next best project. Iran-Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey.. also Pipeline from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan can be built that will share same route, Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey. Also new Silk road, Anaklia project in Georgia is getting built right now that will control 30% of the black sea's exports and imports.
They are also in good relations with both israel and Iran
@@badgermcbadger1968 actually they hate iran and love jews, israel
Because she does not need to join the military and oppress the Russian population, as in Ukraine
love the longer content please keep it up
A very interesting angle to the overall story. Thank you!
Pipelines, pipelines everywhere... Interesting take on the geopolitics. Geopolitics is the one subject that often gets overlooked in the news media, and education systems in the US and probably elsewhere. It's the story behind the story.
The Logic is Bollocks in this Video, I am not going to pay a $15 Subscription for this creature to somehow blame the CIA's War against Syria on Rusaia
@@satanslittlehelper3Look dude. Accept it. Both sides are commiting atrocities, and by saying only one side is, you are essentially sweeping war crimes under the rug
i dont think the education system wants most people to be aware of the effects geopolitics has on the economy and politics, since a people uneducated in that topic are much easier to manipulate during elections. Companies have every incentive to pass laws that make it harder for the education system to actually educate productively, since they profit of of easily-swayed voters
@@Samookely Agreed. On top of that, the 'system' (governmental, educational, etc.) prefers to put people in a state of fear, because Fear = Control. I'm not saying it's some sort of mass conspiracy, but there definitely is an undercurrent of Fear injected into education and the way news is often presented -- especially here in the US where I live.
I would also add to the video the origins of Europe's heavy dependence on Russian energy resources - the oil crisis of 1973 and the embargo on the export of Arab oil to the EU. And I would add the impact of the energy transition: replacing coal with less "harmful" Russian natural gas.
Gas is significantly cleaner than coal, so is less harmful. You can leave off the scare quotes.
@@christryst correct, the quotes are unneeded.
Supposedly the sun is "higher temperature" than the Moon.
@@christryst As long as there are no significant leaks in the pipes. Methane is much worse greenhouse gas compared to CO2.
Oil&gas is totaly valid part of russians reasoning, but it is also agricaltural lands, food will be another "oil" very soon, and they are trying to improve demographics by absorbing more slavic people to "defend" against growing minorities, which are mostly muslim
Oil&gas is totaly valid part of russians reasoning, but it is also agricaltural lands, food will be another "oil" very soon, and they are trying to improve demographics by absorbing more slavic people to "defend" against growing minorities, which are mostly muslim
Fantastic video!
But the soundtrack of the first 5/10 mins is awesome. Reminds me of most of the coffee shops in Amsterdam!! Banging
Thank you for this analysis! So much of this is not talked about in the mainstream.
What's striking in all of this, is that when you read about historical conflicts that had resources, influence, power and wealth involved you can understand it from the perspective of how much more separate everything was back then. It was more of a everyone for themselves mentality.
Nowadays you travel halfway across the world in a matter of hours and we are all so connected with each other in this enormous world economy that there should be no more place for events such as the invasion of Ukraine. Especially considering the reasoning behind it.
Human behaviour can't be changed easily but certain aspects of it are becoming harder and harder to justify.
We're all more interconnected than ever - exactly right. Unless you're a megalomaniac narcissist dictator like Putin. In that case you live in a bubble, greatly distanced from everyone, even your closest aides and supporters. Then everything seems far away and just as it was in the past.
Before WW1 it was announced that thanks to the inter dependence of Europe that wars were literally no longer possible between European countries.
Unfortunately they were wrong as noone should underestimate the lengths nations are willing to go to wage war.
You are right, there should be no such place for Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Libya etc.. invasions from the NATO and USA side.
You people just don't understand how hypocritical you are when you say stop war in Ukraine, the same goes for you NATO supporters. Stop obliterating civilians and excusing it as collateral damage for a greater cause (to kill a "terrorist").
@@Pasta_Pirate most people don’t like each other for very long
I'd go as far as reasoning that 39 minutes might even be too condensed, given the sheer volume of information and correlation. This video is the antithesis of youtube videos, if you will.
I read a small essay about this in the early days of the Russian invasion... This immediately seemed like a much more logical reason for Putin to invade Ukraine than NATO membership. EU membership and petroleum exports we're a much more dire threat to Russian security. I'm so glad you and your team took the time to produce this video. I wish more people could understand that some of the more mundane reasons are actually the most significant ones for modern conflicts.
Check also YT Channel "Good times bad times" there is one chapter about resources, worth it to watch like this one
Mearsheimer and others talk a big talk about 'geopolitical realism' yet almost consistently dismiss or ignore significant economic realities.
The 2014 invasion was about money, this invasion is about money.
And possibly a bit of paranoia and desperation on the side of Putin wanting to be seen as the leader of a superpower instead of a nation limping towards collapse.
@Takeda Shingen actually yes, it is.
That you think otherwise demonstrates how you are stuck in 19th and 20th century thinking.
Like all of the Russian leadership which has consistently ignored the fact that the world is not in a cold war anymore and bullying doesn't work like it used to.
NATO membership? NOBODY has EVER offered it to Ukraine. Just because everyone was afraid of Russia. Russia lied.
@@FelixMeister Hows that working out for him.
One of the best documentaries I've watched, well done 👍👍
Thanks. Really appreciate your videos.
So this is basically a "Who Can supply more oil and Gas to the EU?" Battle Royale
No, this is the consequences for relying on oil and gas
It's not even a question, I bet Saudi Arabia is already making deals with EU countries.
@@ad_astra468 the same saudi with worse human righhts record than russia and just like russia, invaded his defenless little neighbour, Yemen?? GOOD JOB EU YOU HYPOCRITES!
No it's who get to exploit the ressources and then sell it and HOW can they sell it. It also show how LUCKY we were that we could get all those ressources for cheap because of the geopolitical situation.
Remember 2 years ago we were energy independent and selling CNG around the world. Back when we had leadership that didn't despise America...
24:20 discarding nuclear energy was one of the worst decisions one could ever make
It is only a matter of time until the next nuclear power plant has a malfunction or gets damaged (after Chernobyl and Fukushima). Do you want this in central Europe?
@@aldeen3107 switch to thorium if nuclear meltdowns or fallout really bothers you that much the material is known since the cold war but since you couldnt build nuclear weapons with it, it was a useless developement during the time. but fukushima showed that modern power plants are fucking save it took multiple natural desasters and the damage for a maximum desaster was minimal. also the risk for tsunamis combinced with earthquakes in europe are pretty small.
@@aldeen3107 No not really. Chernobyl was due to poor Soviet training, while Fukushima was caused by an earthquake and the subsequent tsunami. Neither are plausible in Europe (as long as reactor workers are properly trained). The only reason nuclear power isn’t popular is since it takes much longer for a nuclear power plant to become profitable than, say a natural gas plant. Not to mention the irrational fear as you have been a fine example of.
The fuck no! Nuclear power is far to dangerous and also very expensive. The two desasters Chernobyl and Fukushima and the current struggle of Frances nuclear power sector are showing that.
@@thanquolrattenherz9665 Thorium plants are eaqually dangerous. And you forget that not only natural deesasters are a threat to those plants. Human errors and terror attacks are there, too.
Amazing as usual, so well done!!
Your videos are really interesting and well researched, thanks for your work 👍
Russian- "Having pipelines under the Caspian Sea is an environmental problem"
Also Russia- Has pipelines under the Black Sea and Baltic Sea
So when pipelines are built in the Caspian Sea, it's over for Russia
You all what Russia to fail but it we not work Evil hypocrite what did you do when NATO and USA invade Afghanistan Syria Iraq Vietnam Libya Cuba Venezuela hypocrites
Everyone uses hottenton morale. Grow up lil nikka
The thing is that Russia (and I believe also Iran and Kazakhstan) argues the Caspian not being a sea but a lake. This, would mean for the Caspian potentially be split evenly between all nations along its shore line - including any resources within the to-be newly traced borders across this endorheic basin. That would also bring along entirely different environmental standards, per se. Sounds crazy? It sure does. But that is what has been at the heart of negotiations for some 20+ years now, ever since the discovery of huge hydrocarbon fields in this area. While most issues have been able to be agreed upon over a number summits, the legal status of the Caspian as either sea or lake as well as the territorial question over the use of the seabed remains open for more discussion.
"Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!!"
It was said that Prussia was an army with a state. Russia is defiently an an energy company with a state.
As John McCain described it, Russia is a gas station with a flag
@@JDeO1997
Yep. Petrol state.
@@l.n.3372 And USA-patrol state lol
@@nt5898
First, you probably meant petrol. Second, USA is obviously not a petrol only state. Ever bought anything technologic like an iPhone?
@@l.n.3372I wrote Patrol. look up dictionary. it means Police
Very informative video. Great job!
Amazing educational video. Job well done!
While watching the Queen's Jubilee festivities with the Azerbaijani horsemen performance I was at first wondering what was the British connection to Azerbaijan. It is all clear now. BP and earlier British oil companies and the Baku area oil and natural gas fields.
Nasty British move… Always trying to create conflict to get their hands on natural resources from other countries for their own gain
Regular Sherlock, you.
@@brerabbit4233 huh??
there was a short war between armenia and azerbajjan last year.
It’s always about money.
I really like looking at conflicts through different lenses like this. Wars take on whole different interpretations depending on how you look at them.
Every aggressor is sacrificing money and lives for something. They don't do it unless they happen to have something big to gain. Most wars we see in recent decades are related to terrorism or threats made by one country or a civil war. What Russia did here is more in common with the ways wars were fought before WW2 -- old fashion land grabs. The last war I can think of where it was such an aggressive action was 1991 Iraq invasion of Kuwait. That was the last land grab I can think of.
Russia is fighting aggressive NATO expansion. Stop distorting facts/reality to hoodwink the gullible. Not everyone is a fool
@@nelsonmaingi1297 Yes, Russia is fighting 'aggressive' NATO expansion. That is why Ukraine and NATO made all those threats to invade Russia -- wait, it was Russia who made the threats and who invaded. But okay, Russia's main concern is to stop NATO expansion --- oops, NATO just got bigger with Finland and Sweden. Okay, so now Russia will invade Finland and Sweden since Russia invaded Ukraine out of concern of NATO expansion!! Yeah, surely Russia will invade Finland and Sweden or else they proved that NATO expansion wasn't the reason for invading Ukraine.
The energy explanation made this video historically significant. The mindset of average Russian person to support the imperialist goals of its leaders was left untouched, but is critical to lasting peace. Now that Ukraine’s energy value is known, it is even more important for the EU and NATO to be even more directly involved in Ukrainian victory. Germany should provide Leopard tanks; at least 250. The US should be training Ukrainian pilots to fly A10s and C130As and then supply the planes and ammo. These military resources along with Ukraine mobilizing 100,000 more troops will defeat Putin’s imperialist dreams. It could get the Russian people to soul search their future.
Awesome content..
Good job
So much here that connects so many dots for me, thanks for a great report!
Time Stamps:
0:00 If you listen and look REALLY close, the video starts. Hey--remember, no russian.
0:36 Introduction
2:07 Background: current and historical context
-> 5:57 Exportation problems
-> 8:19 How commodities affected foreign policy
9:28 The Caspian Basin
-> 14:00 Caspian Pipeline
-> 15:20 Azerbaijan, Georgia, the BTC pipeline, and a proposal
20:02 Putin and Russian economic power
20:09 Western/Eastern front
-> 23:41 Alternative pipelines
-> 24:54 Ukraine's oil, the Orange Revolution, and Crimea invasion
29:48 Correlation between oil and gas prices and Russia's foreign policy (Ukraine's War)
32:00 Environment and sustainability
34:33 Conclusion: Gas and Oil may be Russia's greatest strength and weakness.
Around 35:45 Smooth transition into sponsorship
39:01 I don't know about you, but in my opinion it looks like the video ends.
Important notes and related things:
( @Spartan 187 and others) Germany abandoning nuclear power is short sighted. Nuclear power is the safest per megawatt. For more information on nuclear energy, watch Kurzgesagt's thorough videos on nuclear energy.
( @ga gamba ) A pipeline from Azerbaijan to Georgia already existed - it was built during Tsarist Russia. Also, Ukraine owned transmission lines and radio towers in its territory, so the ICBMs in Ukraine couldn't be activated. Ukrainanians could easily hack, disarm, and disassemble the ICBMs.
Lmk if I missed anything, or need to correct something.
And by the way, RealLifeLore this is the least I can do, your art is so interesting. Keep doing what you're doing mate
34:33 greatest strength yet lol. wait till they stop exporting food and heavy materials lol
Nothing can excuse, morally explain or justify what russia is doing to Ukraine. Nothing excuses nether justify invading another country, especially if this is for a ressources problems. Their are lot of others ways to solve ressources' problems. Use diplomacy, invest in another sector, anything other than a mass invasion
russia's oil & gas problem doesn't excuse or justify invading Ukraine
@@filb1324 maybe invasion for stopping communism is a justify reason then lol
@@vincentprime740
communism isn't bad in itself, the problem with ccommunism start when it is applicated by a authoritarian state like russia, then it's not even communism anymore, but a dictature disginsed itself as a communist country
As always an entertaining video. The only thing that is missing for me would be a link to your sources in the description just so I can follow your conclusions in more detail and to satisfy my want for scientific credibility of your videos . Other than that keep going as you are. I greatly appreciate the insight you give to this amazing and terrifying world we live in.
I agree, sources should be a must
This is why we need biden to win 2024
Balin your too lazy to search this yourself
@@your-my-exp7730 If you're asking if its asking to much of the audience to research every fact detailed in a 40 minute long video about the modern geopolitical conflicts of the largest country on the planet, then yes. Yes it is.
Whining kids comes to mind from you lot
Very informative. Thank you.
Thanks. This makes so much more sense now. Great video.
Can we just take a moment to appreciate how unbelieveably stupid german abandonment of nuclar was
Fukushima disagrees
@@simonmorgan225 France....
@@simonmorgan225 shows how little you know about the topic or the Fukushima disaster you are referencing
@@simonmorgan225 Last I checked they don't get a lot of tsunamis in Germany.
And even in Fukushima things would have been fine if the firm running the plant had improved their sea wall in the 20 years that the government had been asking them to due to higher estimated wave heights caused by climate change, or if at some point during that 20 years the government had forced the firm to do it.
It wasn't stupid, it was bribed by russia. The Government responsible of that descission drove germany into dependence from russian energy. Former Chancellors Schröder and Merkel are known friends to Putin.
This is one of the better explanations of the real motivations for the war. Thanks.
It is not. Author just sucked from the finger some rational ideas. But in fact everything is much simpler. Empire must have "ancient history". And russia history says they all came from Kyiv (Ukraine), so or they have it, or they are not so great as their history books say. Second reason - if russia doesn't war outside - it starts war inside. That is how empires work. Or they grow or they collapse, but they can just stand still.
@@u010602uhm, russia's history didn't begin in Kiev. Actually as I remember, their first imperator was Ivan III, who first made the Russian empire
@@svme5921 Pyotr the Great was the first Russian emperor, so the history of the empire starts in Saint Petersburg, also according to the Novgorod chronicle, Novgorod was the first Russian city, not Kyiv
Good video dude great job on this
Amazing video! Awesome and informational. Thanks!
Kinda crazy that this video was more enlightening and eye opening than all of the news during this war.
Question: Is China’s aim to turn Russia into a client-state? Essentially a source of cheap energy resources to fund their power competition with the US?
Hard to do. The pipelines all go west. The oil and gas fields in Russia's east are much harder to extract and this has all been done by western firms. China may wind up actually selling less to China.
Maybe. China seems to still be weighing their options so it is hard to guess which way they will jump. Russia could supply a lot of the natural resources and energy China needs to compete with the US, but it would be a very unwieldy vassal state and China already struggles to keep its much smaller ones inline.
Another possible route would be to de-industrialize like Cambodia did, or phase private ownership out like DPRK did. Either would require taking Taiwan first, but not for its people or industry so they could be as brutal as they wanted.
Nah, they will just continue their Belt and Road initiative, and buy cheap Russian oil and gas. They have no motive to make Russia a client state.
I didn't write that correct. The pipelines all go west from western Siberia and all of the Russian west. These do not connect to the east. Then, they have a lot of problems with production in the east.
You're projecting US thinking to China. To the US everyone other country is a vassal state. If not we'll destroy you. It's not normal to work together. The main reason for China and Russia to work together is the US. Russia and China's economies are complementary. China manufactures everything, Russia has all the natural resources.
High level understanding and explanation , Thank you
wow great work with this video
This video single-handedly explains the conflict in Ukraine better the any mainstream media has even come close to, they turn it in to some complex story meanwhile it’s actually just a money problem, phenomenal work with this video! Your a true journalist and deserve all the praise you get!
It explains one element of it. Check out "The Grayzone" for the political amd ethnic strife aspects.
It _is_ a complex story, but this is a comprehensible angle on it.
Yes don’t get me wrong there is more to the conflict then the money problem, the ethnic one as you mentioned being pretty big, but the mainstream media have made so many story’s about this conflict and don’t talk about the main points that people don’t even know about the gas findings and such, which is a extremely important detail if you wanna understand why the invasion happened, I almost haven’t seen anyone even mentioning it
Yea, a lot of other explanations and reasons for the invasions often get caught up in the minutiae of things (which matter, however for a laymen these things are just forgotten or don’t matter).
@@adamhurter6454 Richard Medhurst is another good source on this topic.
There's an important omission here. A pipeline from Azerbaijan to Georgia already existed - it was built during Tsarist Russia. Baku was not only both Tsarist Russia and later the USSR's principal oil producer (until 1942), it produced one half of the world's oil in 1900. The Transcaucasian pipeline completed in 1907, terminating in Batum, Georgia (then part of Russia). Refineries in Baku converted crude to kerosene and.this was transported via the 885 km pipeline - the world's longest at the time. It was then shipped aboard Black Sea tankers to Russian industries on the Sea's northern coast and inland via the Volga River. Exports were shipped through the Turkish Straits. As oil became more important than kerosene and replaced it, the pipeline was refitted to transit crude in 1925. A second crude pipeline was completed in 1930.
Russian kerosene earlier hit the international marketplace in the 1890s, shipped via the Transcaucasian Railway to Batum, then aboard ships (most often aboard British tankers) to the UK and the British Empire, chiefly India. The second important export market was the Ottoman Empire. France and Persia followed.
Another omission is the statement of Russia controlling nuclear launch codes of missiles in Ukraine. Whilst true, Ukraine controlled the transmission lines and radio towers that transversed its territory. Further, physical control may result in the warheads removal from the missiles and any security codes hacked. And ICBMs weren't the only nuclear weapons in Ukraine. There were also nuclear bombs carried by Ukraine's strategic bomber fleet - these bombs didn't have the same launch codes as ICBMs. Ukraine also had battlefield tactical nuclear weapons such as those fired by artillery.
Alfred Noble brothers explored oil in Baku, Russians never posseted the tech even back then
@@borghorsa1902 Today also most tech in exploitation of oil and gas come from the west, that's why Russian specialists them self say's that this embargo can be fatal for Russian oil industry. There are many parts what Russian industry just can't produce
@@manjelos Please post a link? I am sure you must have many sources to back this up
Ukraine was so stupid to trust the US government to keep its promas for which I am so sorry. But have you noticed the betrayals have happened when democrats have power?
Thanks for the excellent supplement of information !
Great Video! Thank you!
Absolutely brilliant piece of well researched content 👍🏻
People don't talk about Agriculture products (Fertilizer, Wheat, Sun Flower Oil) and Uranium. US still imports enriched uranium from Russia as of today. US also gets other commodities from Russia while stopping them to make bond payments so to convey the message that they cannot pay although Russia was willing to pay. Russia is also the second supplier of weapons second to US.
Who wants Russian weapons after their latest performance. Their tanks getting blown up are literally on “Worldstar” everyday…
Was. No one wants to buy their junk now. Even India has ditched Russian arms as a complete joke.
@@2112jonr 85% of weapons of Indian Armed forces comes from Russia. The main reason they are leaving Russian weapons is because there should be a difference between Chinese weapons which are completely based out of Russian weapons and what India has. US also does not give permissions/licenses to be made outside of US while Russia gives license sharing and research sharing. Weapons from Russia are very cheap as compared to US weapons.
@@rajeshji2811 we are 1 year later and now France is quickly becoming India's weapons supplier
I like the presentations of the map very well done. The tiny little icons represented for the resources moving from A to B and what those resources are is very informative.
@@all_about_racing Thats not an argument my guy
They are civ icons I think
@@Petri_Pennala - Just one example, but at the 33:40 he says that "Russia needs Europe more than Europe needs Russia." That's simply not the case though. Not at all!...
Europe currently buys 150 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas per year from Russia, and there's no other country or combination of countries which can readily replace such volumes.....LNG is inherently *much* more expensive, thus making Europe's industries globally uncompetitive, but even putting the cost issue aside, the volumes simply aren't there. There's talk of the US supplying 15 bcm per year, but that's only one tenth of what Russia now supplies, and many doubt if the US can even supply that much.
....Meanwhile, Russia is already shifting its export infrastructure - pipelines, ports, etc. - to the east, where China, India, and other Asian countries are eager to buy whatever Europe doesn't want!
@@all_about_racing - I'm not sure if the channel took it down. I believe TH-cam has some sort of automated filter which blocks comments with direct links. A good workaround is to post a direct quote from the relevant article, and then others can search for that text.
Actually, the TRUTH is, Because the Deepstate put over 12 CONFIRMED Bio weapons' labs in its back yard. Not to mention Ukraine was part of Russia to begin with. Lets NOT FORGET Hunter Biden on the Ukraine Energy Board
Really great to watch. Really cool. Thanks
Wow, this really summarizes everything
What an excellent video, but Europe's plan to drop Russia oil and gas is more like a fairy tale story than reality or at best ten years away. The notion that Russia needs Europe more than Europe needs Russia I am less convinced of. One main reason for this is the Euro and the Dollar and its ability to maintain purchasing power for Russian commodities and with all the money printing and shut downs during the pandemic has only made matters worse. China and India are very keen to buy surplus Russian commodities at a discount. But this discount price is still higher than then what the European's where paying.
Exactly. Europe needs oil and gas to survive this winter. Russia will have a pipeline to China long before Europe can sustain itself through green energy.
Of course, China will probably cut the price at the last minute like they always do.
Also Russia exports more food and energy than it consumes, unlike China.
I'm sure they're willing to buy at a discount but with countries like India, you can't just pump all the oil in there if there is nothing to digest the excess.
Europe also loses brazil, part of bric as you know, good luck feeding the meat industry.
lol. The EU has nothing to offer to russians. USD and EUR? Virtual zero's on the western bank account in exchange of real goodies? They are not stupid, are they?
They say that history is just geography, but I think geography is everything.
Geography is not everything. Culture is important too. Similar countries have different levels of civilisation depending on their cultures.
@@contekozlovski Culture is very often based on geography.
Based one piece take
Know a country's geography, and you know its foreign policy.
peak oil
Amazing! Simply amazing. You just got one more subscriber.
These videos are so incredibly informative. Thank you so much for all your hard work!
You’re one of my new favorite channels! Educational, intriguing , and well done.
Very informative in details I must say. I also like how he used the Sid Meier's Civilization icons here. As a player myself I liked this video even more.
Ned Beatty's Network speech seems more relevant now than ever.
Thanks!
Hi! Lots of interesting stuff in here, it's done to a high standard. Nevertheless, how do you manage to say so much about the USSR and Putin and miss mentioning Yeltsin? The period of American advisory, the privatization of the oil and gas concerns (and everything else) is mentioned in passing as though it was a natural step. It wasn't. The period was absolutely disastrous for the Russian people and explains a great deal about why there was then a Putin with so much popular support.
couldn't agree more.
Russia has always been governed by oligarchs. Yeltsin was an outlier and a sick drunken one to boot. Collapse of autocracies like the Tsars, Soviets and eventually Putin always results in power vacuums.
@@davidelliott5843 who do you think runs your country?!
Yeltsin was a controversial person, of course. But Russia had democratic institutions and, which is more important, free press at that time. During the first Chechen war, federal TV channels had been quite critical about what was going on, the government and Yeltsin himself.
@@jevgenimalyshev9056 When was western media restricted in Russia?
Great simplified assessment of the geopolitical context of the conflict, as a Russian (anti-war, wouldn't be here otherwise) I also must add that as well as Putin is more of a gas company CEO than a president he's also more of a secret service agent than a politician. Thus abandoning freedom and human rights for "enhanced security" has always been one of the key motifs of his rule. And in such a climate warmongering and militaristic ideologies prosper, which ultimately allowed for these conflicts to be accepted by the russian public.
На грин карту зарабатываеш
This vídeo is a hole of excelent information and education. Thanks my friend! 🇧🇷
This guy absolutely loves the word "entire."
MASSIVE
*TOYOTA COROLLAS*
I entirely agree.
its getting entirely boring .
'Absolutely' agree with you
This is amazing. So much info about things that we would not know by only watching the news.
or discovery channel, or any other channel on tv
they lie
Rem that just because it isn't CNN doing the report it doesn't always mean it will not have bias as well. Specially on the internet. And TH-cam where creators are trying to earn a living if not get rich
Try watching Archcast’s videos on the war as well. He’s a video game streamer of all things but he’s also doing his level best to provide an objective, tactical analysis on the conflict and despite not being a military man by any measure - which he makes very clear - he’s actually doing a decent job.
@@readsomebooks666 what does being video game streamer have to do with this?
This is probably one of the most comprehensive look at the political/economic issues going on with Russia. Good job.
I will one day binge the heck out of nebula
Hey, thanks for all of your videos. Keep up the good work.
Thank you ... finally, someone is talking about the real reasons behind the current and recent wars... Why cant the greater news media discuss this obvious truth
I agree and state the same thing. Media is bought and controlled.
They don't want fingers pointed at Western powers for Ukrainians' sufferings. The narrative has to be 100% against Russia, fair or otherwise.
Because in case of russia it’s a goal to rebuild soviet union and imperialism
Because it’s not “the” reason. There are always multiple reasons, it’s complex and hard. The news media seems only able to deal in simple.
This is one of the reasons. Another important reason is that the territory of Ukraine is important from the point of view of defense. The Russians want to control this territory in order to prevent a potential invasion by Western countries. And they want to occupy the territory of the coast for better control of the sea.
+ Ukraine is a good example of post-Soviet democracy. In Ukrain Russian language is on the same level with Ukrainian, Ukraines is very similar to Russians. If Ukraine could become a strong and successful democracy, it would be an excellent example of a democratic path for Russians Citizens.And demonstration of the ineffective rule of autocrat Putin. and this is already a danger for Putin's power.
These are the main 3 reasons that quickly come to my mind. Perhaps there is something else.
By the way, Putin claims that this is how he opposes the United States, the European Union and the entire "Western" bloc.
Thank You ! Wonderful research and computer animations tell a compelling story of why Putin wants to "get back" the former Russian territories. Congratulations on telling these geo-political stories in an entertaining style. Happy New Year !!!!
An added problem is that the Groningen field is nearing depletion. Also, like letting the air out of a balloon, the strata above the gas bearing rock are subsiding because the gas is no longer holding them up. The result is earthquakes that damage homes and infrastructure. The Dutch government has promised the local population that gas production would drastically diminish and stop altogether.
The house damage and the earthquakes have been blown completely out of proportion. I’ve seen videos purporting to show how “terrible” it is… and they show a solitary house with a crack because it wasn’t built right, while all the neighboring houses are still perfectly intact. Foundations matter, and if they aren’t done right you get cracks whether or not there are (absolutely tiny) earthquakes.
@@peterfireflylund
Because of the high water table, foundations are not very deep. Houses do not even have cellars but despite that, houses have stood there for hundreds if years. Yes, houses are isolated because IT IS FARM COUNTRY and in the affected area around Slochteren there are houses with complete outer walls shored up by timber supports or they would otherwise collapse. My step-daughter lives in Scheemda so the wife and I sometimes find ourselves there. I myself come from a former coal mine district where the subsidence is much worse because it is built up with lots of roads, buildings, bridges and what have you. A while ago half a shopping mall sank into the earth even though mining there was stopped in the 60’s. Believe me when I say that there is a problem in Groningen. I even predicted as much in the 90’s while studying physics in Utrecht because of my experience of what is still happening in Limburg. You do not remove a ladder while you are standing on it.
@@johnkochen7264 I don’t believe you. I know something about houses - and your physics name dropping doesn’t intimidate me. I know something about physics, too.
@@peterfireflylund
Sorry you feel threatened. Ben je Nederlander? Als dat zo is, misschien doe je er goed aan beter op te letten als je door Groningen rijdt.
@@peterfireflylund "I know something about physics too". Great, do you also have a good grasp of geology, economy and climate science as well? Because then I suggest you use those powers of deduction to realise that Groningen's gas fields are not economical feasible with the payments required to compensate for damages whilst the price of natural gas will drop as we shift to renewable energies. It makes no sense to exhume the corpse of the Dutch gas export industry.
We need to move away from fossils fuels, not dig deeper into dying projects.
So well done, probably the most educational video I've watched on this subject and really does a fantastic job explaining a major factor in these geopolitics that isn't really discussed.
And by educational I presume you mean narrow minded.... Russia is no longer dependent on the West... 85% of the world would love to buy its resources !
But keep pretending the West represents the whole world... even while it is crumbling hard now !
This explanation ignores some very obvious things like that fact like, why Putin said he was invading. The idea that Putin is invading Ukraine for the unrealized potential of energy deposits is less likely thnt the idea of the US invading Iraq for existing energy infrastructure.
It seems very, very unlikely that oil and not what Putin says is the reason for invading.
I thought, I knew both sides of the argument. An interesting third side. At least Putin is working for his people, the west works for the banks and mega corps.
What is the reason for this? Aren't you ashamed to say this, which explains, and the fact that there was a genocide of the Russian population in Ukraine doesn't explain anything to you? Russia has reserves of resources for a hundred years from only one field. Do you really think that Ukraine is richer than Russia? Then why is it in the last places in terms of poverty in Europe? Is Russia setting gas prices? And the fact that the fighting is only taking place in a small area where the genocide of the Russian population took place. Do you even know that these territories were donated by Russia to Ukraine? Since 2014, NATO has been helping to kill the Russian population and at the same time is so meanly conducting propaganda. Do you even know how much the rescue of Donbass cost Russia, this is your benefit, since 2014 Russia has been sending humanitarian aid to Donbass. refugees have been in Russia since 2014, where they were paid benefits, now Russia is building them houses and all the infrastructure, a lot of money for weapons, a lot of losses from sanctions that have been in Russia since 2014.
@@vl7297 the fact that there are oil and gas fields in the Donbass, does not automatically mean that it was in any way the incentive for Russia's action. It could just as easily be the primary incentive for Western action. This reporter presented a truth, perhaps with a bias spin, but the truth. When we start denying the truth because, it doesn't fit what we believe, then we are lost.
Great video 👍
Very informative and well researched. Most of this is missing from main stream media. Some is obviously conjecture, but well thought out conjecture.
@@all_about_racing you good buddy? Should i pass a dictionary for ya?
@@all_about_racing your emojis say more about your education than your poor attempts at sarcasm. Keep it up bud. We all see you as about as smart as a dog turd on the grass who keeps wishing it was a wildflower.
Not sure about "well thought out" conjecture. EU's intention regarding green energy has become more ludicrous every day.
CNN, MSNBC, NBC
I HOPE YOU GET IT.
THEY ONLY WANT A SEAT AT THE TABLE.
@@all_about_racing Uhm, this video isn't exactly painting a terribly rosy picture of Russia or whatever. If anything, it shows how depending on fossil fuels for so long is more than just a climate disaster, for both Russia *and* everyone else.
An economy needs breadth in order to be healthy. If it's overly dependent on one sector, it has to leverage that sector's assets to make investments elsewhere.
Putin's so passionate about climate change he opted to sacrifice the Russian economy in order to expedite the transition to renewable energy. What a guy.
lmao the russian economy will be the last to fall after the EU and the US collapse.
It's gonna pay off in the end
@@gabenewell3955 for the survivors, maybe, maybe not...
The Russian economy is fine. The minimum wages got increased and now interest rates have been reduced... again. I also don't have to pay 7 dollars for gas which is great, and I can go to any shop and pick up baby formula. The rouble is also valued at around 55 to the dollar.
@@centurionoomae1543 The Russian economy has been doing surprisingly well in the short term due to oil prices, but a -5% or -7% contraction is still expected by the end of the year, and looking at the situation across the next 10 years, the Russian economy is fucked. It has nothing but oil and the West is now speeding up the transition to renewables. Germany and the UK are miles ahead of Russia, let alone the US and China. The likes of Indonesia and Mexico will overtake Russia at some point in the 2030s.
Nicely explained.
Well explained
I love your content! It's very entertaining to watch and interesting to listen! Keep up the amazing work
5:20 Video suggests that worst thing that happened from USSR dissolution was fracturing of geological resources.
I totally disagree. If it was the case, then Russia would push hard on Central Asia. I would say that the "resource gain/conquest difficulty" ratio would be highest on Turkmenistan. It's #4-#6 in the world in gas resources, it has 5mln. population, not a big army and possibly population happy to be incorporated into Russia. Also this would make Russia's access to the ocean waters(Indian ocean through Iran) closer. Additionally it could help Russia fill the geopolitical vacuum in Afghanistan, after USA left. Also Russia will become geographically closer to it's allies Iran and Syria, and to Russian's largest military armor importer: India.
Among postsoviet countries, after Russia, Kazakhstan is the wealthiest with natural resources with it's oil, gas, uranium etc. resources, also Russia's Baikonur spaceport is there, but it would be way harder to conquer it, as Kazakhstan is way bigger and it has a way stronger army.
I really don't understand those in the internet that measures every conflict in oil.
I would understand if you try to describe the reason of invasion to Ukraine by: getting it back to sphere of influence , or getting full access to warm water port, or gaining largest Russian speaking population outside Russia in a historical event, or to cover internal problems, etc.
But I don't understand why it would be because of resources, I guess even conquest of Arctic makes more sense in terms of resources.
Arguably it was their nuclear weapon stockpile lying around what was the biggest brown trouser moment for the West. You only need a few religious nutcases to make a dirty bomb (or ten) out of their components.
As a Turkmen, I can say that our people hate our government to the point where they will welcome the army of orcs with an open arms. It's all sad to me. Cursed lands.
Not oil/gas on their own, but economic dependence.
And just to point a few items:
Warm water is a joke argument. Russia already had access to the black sea and could easily build a new artificial port, no crimea needed. And it would cost less then this conflict.
And going for central Asia? How? Conquer? Sure, holding a country with no cultural connection is so easy (look at Afghanistan), that would be extremely risky (including condemnation of the global community) with in the end little to gain, so not really worth it. Politically? Yeah, no, China is the main man in that regard.
And topics like "Russian speaking population" are usually the official justification, but rarely the actual reason. That's most of the time mainly economy.
@@frankkobold Let me also add few items:
1. a) Warm water. Black Sea could be blocked by Turkey, which is NATO member, so it's would be good to have access to the ocean, for example Indian, through the ally like Iran.
b) I am not expert in the Black Sea or port building, but I guess for the proper port one need also a deep sea bottom, otherwise even if one build the port, big ships can't enter it. At least I heard something like that in the topic of China renting the deep sea port in Sri Lanka.
2. Central Asia. a)How? Not easy, but by Caspian Sea, Turkmenistan's naval forces are the weakest in the Caspian Sea. Russia already used their ballistic missiles firing them from their ships located in Caspian Sea to Syria. Definitely those rockets can reach any of the Central Asia's countries.
b) no cultural connection: Russia is a federation and it has a lot of Republics inside of it with different cultures and religions, and own constitutions. Central Asia had over a century been part of Russian Empire and USSR, contrary to Afghanistan that never been. I am not telling that it would be an easy task, but 5 mln. people + small army + flat desert is way easier than Afghanistan's 38 mln. people + a lot of weaponized families + mountainous terrain.
c) Politically China has not that a big role in Central Asia. Economically - yes, politically - no. Russia still politically dominates the region.
d) Russia speaking population is almost non-existent in Turkmenistan. The point was not about Russians, but local population choice for Russia over their own government.
I think it made a lot of sense to invade Ukraine if the goal was to preserve Russia domination in energy market. Doesn't matter if Russia can get more oil&gas if EU can just go buy it from somewhere else. Eliminate the competition so to speak. The video also pointed out how much of Russian Gov budget is made up of EU payments. And even though Putin is a dictator, it doesn't mean he can ignore everyone. When money dries up, he can be unpopular with both the public and the elites. Also he can't keep up with military spending to project the major power status.
The geopolitical explanation also has its merit, so it's not like its outside of consideration just because of oil&gas.
*Oil and Gas exists near Russia* Putin: THIS MEANS WAR!
Great maps.
Very well researched but I will follow up some the point. I watch the program from start to finish and found it very interesting. It gave me a lot to think about. Thank you.
I love that real life lore is making such long videos recently!
yeah, more content for mistakes...
He is getting paid directly by the United States propaganda
I love these types of videos they are so interesting. The world is an interesting place.
He is spitting USA/NATO military Industrial complex Propaganda, He has no clue at all, what he is talking about
Ten months old and still pertinent, well done.
I don't understand how Germany could build Nordstream 1 & 2 under Baltic Sea without anyone's approval, but Turkmenistan can't build any pipeline under Caspian Sea without Russia's approval. This doesn't make any sense.
Russia built Nordstream 1 & 2, not Germany. There was no opposition to building those pipelines because the countries around the Baltic sea are friends of Germany, who wanted the pipelines.
Turkmenistan can't because Russia is a bad neighbor as we all know.
Instead of cultivating good relations and prosperity with the countries around, like the EU does, they keep setting them back so they remain under Russia's wing.
The XXI century will be the century of karma to Russia, everything they've been doing will come to bite them in the ass.
International waters
They got approval from Denmark.
@@insertname8451 Germany is the main Nord Stream shareholder after Russia and it was them who agreed to the construction in the first place. Excluding those 2 countries, no one in the Baltic Sea region wanted these pipelines, because it's been known that they will inevitably increase EU's dependance on Russian gas.
US and the West bully smaller or poorer countries. They drain and exploit these countries natural resources to meet their own needs. However China is powerful enough to fight back. There is a new world order forming and US and the West will not be at the top. Their economies are dying and their leaders weak
Having worked 30 years in the Oil&Gas industry, 10 of the dealing with Russian industry I can say that is 100 % true.
Thanks for destroying Earth for few dollars.
10 of the what?
@@urielgarcia2616 10 of which (years)
@@vincenzosangiorgio9705 Can you just say it in Italian or something? I still don’t understand what you’re trying to say 🫤
@@urielgarcia2616 ho lavorato 30 anni nel settore oil & gas, di cui 10 anni con l'industria Russa.
30 years in the oil & gas business, 10 of these years were spent working with Russia.
Is it clear now?
great video
Shell Exxon Chevron have left Ukraine in 2015. This is NOT shale gas, Yuzovskaya has a tight sandstone gas deposits over 4.5 kilometers deep. To mine it is really expansive
as always, explains a lot of things in a well pieced-up video. great job !
@комиссар полиции обвиняет for example?..
You’ve nailed it with your analysis, energy was always key and this timeline view puts context and strategy in full view!
Russia is no longer dependent on the West... 85% of the world would love to buy its resources !
But keep pretending the West represents the whole world... even while it is crumbling hard now !
Energy..lmao...means MONEY