Elon Musk's Good Mood Not Enough to Offset Lack of Tesla Guidance
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 23 ม.ค. 2024
- The earnings call was upbeat, illuminating, and should give everyone good feelings about the future of Tesla. However, the AH market took the stock down 6% likely due almost entirely to lack of guidance on 2024 unit sales.
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I have written 10 books about small business, several of shich are currently available on Amazon, including two Amazon Best Sellers about Elon Musk. - แนวปฏิบัติและการใช้ชีวิต
Tesla owes people nothing. The stock has been a monster. They are in between big projects use the time to accumulate it and thank God you have some time before it explodes again.
Thank you Larry for your time. It is very appreciated by many 😊
Love Larry’s sensibility.
Larry is definitely one of the more interesting and grounded TSLA bulls, as opposed to some of the fantasists on YT. I appreciate his insights.
@@Gr0gansm1th Oh, I like the fantasists, too: "without vision, a people perishes". Keeping an optimusktic (sic) attitude is healthy: as long as you know which of the items are long shots.
Congratulations Larry, its a pleasure listening to you and your reasoning. Shows your great knowledge. I identify with your thoughts especially on the future of Optimus. Tesla can't gamble and have Optimus on an assembly line, ESPECIALLY on a next gen car when so many elements will be brand new and one can't have so many unknowns at the same time.
Larry: on the initial rollout of the Tesla bot, I think you nailed it. i.e. managed environment (distanced from the masses in the factory), minimal risk, no AGI, very minimal skillset from explicit datasets (just like FSD). Any incident will cause enormous FUD.
IMO, the bot won't be until early 2026. There are always unforseen events that cause delays.
Randy: please take off your marketing hat. Marketing optimism and new product innovation are polar opposites. Nothing comes out early. Elon says what he believes and Elon is an optimist. Those who don't learn from history ....
Thanks guys!!
Every quarter the results beat expectations based on the guidance given and still the share price crashes. Let them work it out and see how close they can get without guidance.
Excellent discussion. This was a great episode. Congrats to you and Larry. And thank you.
17 percent is awesome
Randy your prediction of 400 300 whatever by early this year did not go well
COGS were great !!
I was expecting that.
I want a look at the actual factory producing Highland to see how much "unboxed" method has been incorporated.
Now we have to suffer Gordon Johnson saying I told you so.
I bet Gordo can't say, "no moat," three times fast...
Great discussion! Made me think about bot levels, all that will be profitable. Of course they'll be progressively more capable: Warehouse, Factory, Retail, General. IMHO Warehouse bots will be in a production line and start being used by Tesla starting in about 4 to 6 months.
I'm not even thinking about Optimus.
Energy and "Unboxed" are the 2 to watch.
(Plus anything else they announce)
Larry is a realist.
Gen3 should come in Mid 25.
So, we can be back, invest more, than. Plus "Elon-Time"!
2026 is the year I expect the following to happen...FSD enters the regulatory approval process in the US, Optimus begins some level of mass production, the 25K gen 3 is fully ramped, at least 2 new auto factories are up and running and probably 1 or 2 more under construction.
FSD by 2026 is just a random guess. Regulator approval can take years and may be regional vs nationwide
@@markavelisocal I said ENTERS the regulatory approval process. It will definitely be regional. Musk said regulatory approval will take between 1 and 5 years, depending on the location, and that seems pretty realistic. I expect regulatory approval will be at city, state and national levels. I'm only talking about US and perhaps Canada. Other parts of the world are further out, before they ENTER the regulatory approval process.
Bullshit
How long did it take for cruise and Waymo to pass the regulations?
@@royphillips7644 Apples and oranges.
The model Y came to market 'early'. Tesla pushed out the announced start date for the model Y out because they didn't want to cannabalize the model 3 sales until the Y was ready to roll. I think they may be doing the same with compact model.
That would make sense. They probably will do that again.
Randy, Ive been suggesting to you that tesla would not guide strongly in 2024 due to Tesla knowing that they will have extended shutdowns in 2024 to upgrade all 4 factories to Model Y juniper. The fact that they did not guide makes perfect sense to me. As they have a 2M run rate today, guiding for 2.1 or 2.2 would have been a bloodbath. By not guiding, they have provided a way to avoid confirming the negative news and simultaneously proactively osborning the current Model Y before they are ready to make the switchover.
Reaching guidance of 1.8M+ didn't help much either.
Gen3 should come in Mid 25.
So, we can be back, invest more, than. Plus "Elon-Time"!
Good Point, thank you! But, as a Investor, i will come back Mid 2025, or "Elontime" later, maybe 2026 Mid.
Drew Baglino said in October 2023 that the company was now producing 4680 cells on two production lines in Austin Texas and plans to install a total of eight lines there in two phases, with the last four due to be running in late 2024. The facility will be capable of building 100 GWh of batteries annually. The tax credit grants $35 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) for domestically produced battery cells, $10/kWh for domestically produced battery modules, and a 10 percent production cost credit for mining critical minerals and producing electrode active materials, which include cathode and anode active materials. So the Austin plant could deliver huge tax savings to Tesla by end of 2025.
As allows I agree with Larry. The Bot doing useful, reliable work is a ways off. These things always take lingering than you expect.
Great stuff guys!
RANDY - best part of the call NO GUIDENCE , dont need it DELETE.
Re: Elon’s 25% voting goals, is there a way retail investors can grant him voting rights for their shares? I would happily do it.
As the economy rises Tesla will do well. Political changes will boost the economy.
Nice job on this one guys
Thanks a lot❤
I agree with Larry regarding Optimus.
I think there's a misconception regarding the "Unboxed process".
.
Some seem to think there will be bots walking around the production line..... Why?
.
I see the production as follows.
.
A vehicle is ordered with "a spec".
It's ts barcoded (same as now).
.
The factory is divided into a "virtual grid"
Say 1-200 by A to Z.
±560 "squares", each 6x6m.
.
The vehicle barcode specifies "Casting type 1, powertrain type 4, body type 12".
.
An example of Casting type 1 is removed from storage and placed on a robot sled with adjustable location brackets which move to accept that casting.
.
That sled is assigned the next free work area, let's say "152 D" and proceeds to that space.
.
All components for that front casting assembly are asdigned by the factory A I, collected, placed on suitable transport, with correct orientation, and sent to the same area.
.
When they arrive, in sequence, a *coventional* robot arm reads and recognises each component type as correct for the assembly assigned to the bay, lifts and positions them for fixing, they fit location pins on the casting so are correct every time.
.
Where necessary, an operator (human , robot arm, OR Optimus) fixes them in place.
This can happen on all 4 casting sides, plus maybe top and bottom, at the same time.
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That module leaves for a holding area.
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This repeats for all modules associated with that vehicle (barcode) in different locations.
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When all modules are complete, the central A I instructs them to "meet" at an assembly station.
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Meanwhile, a different casting type, or a battery module, or a body pre-assembly arrives at location "152 D". The A.I has the program set for the arm to perform the *different* operations required, and for correct parts to arrive.
.
Rinse, repeat.
Assemblies for a particular vehicle type will use a different combination of assembly locations every time.
.
Optimus will initially be warehouse based, loading components at the periphery of the factory.
Thanks for your thoughts,
Gentlemen.
Larry, I have an optimistic bias like Randy and believe that Optimus will be deployed far sooner than you think. Tesla will want to test Optimus doing useful things in their factories long before they start shipping them. I fact I don't think many Bots will be shipped as Tesla will want to use them in their own factories to reap the lower costs and enhanced productivity. This is an exponential improvement item and the advancements will be mind blowing. Elon has already said that the humanoid robot is many orders simpler than Full Self Driving and Tesla already has a brain for Optimus. Time will tell.
Randy, great show!
Because of you, your Mission book, this podcast, and stevenmarkryan, I bought Tesla stock last February & July. Tried to be a long term investor, but the decline in stock price caused me to sell 1/2 of my position today and depending on what happens in the next week or so, I may sell the other 1/2. The whole world seems to hate Elon almost as bad as some hate Trump. Both are great men that this world needs now.
With no guidance and the federal reserve taking 2+ years of getting interest rates where they will help Tesla sell cars, as you said our P/E will greatly reduced. So, it seems like Tesla becomes quite a different stock.
Best to you, Randy
Optimus will program itself by watching all the 5-6 terminator movies!😮
in 2040
I hope no one lets Optimus watch CNBC. Holee Frunk!
I thought there was a Negative Overreaction in the Market.
There always is. Dropping 10% after earning is the norm, regardless of what they say.
Larry is really Yoda....
Gen 3 rollout will cut the costs per vehicle even greater than 10%
10% (sorry)
Elon could have held the line on margins. He announced however some time ago that this would not be the case as prices needed to be hit to increase market share which is the long term goal to remain competitive. I think we all have extremely short memories.
Yes, lack of guidance is odd. Pre-market at the moment $190.00; exactly what I predicted last week.
What about growth in power banks / megapacks?
Elon is sandbagging the G2 car to avoid Osborne.
18 to 24 months on a revolutionary new production method isn’t sandbagging. The car will be on the road by end of the year (production candidate test cars).
@@richb2229 I’m okay with 18-24 months being the truth. But many of the internal components are being ramped with Cybertruck.
Randy, could you please compare your video split screen with Brian's. It is so tiring to having your videos in a super wide screen layout where you have to zoom in by alot to comfortably watch your videos. I know you can get it right.
Thanks
Unfortunately, I have to agree with you
I guess they're still in the process of resetting expectations.
Painful, but necessary.
Jobs was the real visionair to spent 200 mio in 1996 on the iPhone. Jokes aside the iPhone was a new product in a market that wasn't used to spent $500 on a phone. I was waiting to buy untill iPhone3GS because of GPS function.
Shipping costs will spike next year, avoiding the pirates in the Red Sea
at Min 10 you suggest that Austin will produce 100gig watt of batteries in 2024. They are still commissioning new lines, so thay wont be close to 100 in 2024.
Optimus = Terminator = bounty hunter!😮
What about Juniper? It wasn't mentioned. What about the global impact of Highland?
there is NO Juniper or Highland.
TESLA uses those words to FIND & Silence LEAKS.
same as Project "Redwood" (next gen car). or as Tesla calls internally "NV9X "
Larry, on a wider macro level is there not something else going on here with Tesla? What I'm alluding to is this Wall Street desire to force management to guide the market around ever corner as the company advances into the future. Not because it is imperative to the company's well being, but because WS has over the last 25-30 years become addicted to manipulating these short term positions. (I do recall when any stock that didn't pay a dividend were deemed speculation; and investors weren't supposed to check their portfolio but half a dozen times per year.) So this manipulation of the facts is a relatively new game that WS is playing.
Now if one were to gaze into one's crystal balls, and some of us are much better at this than others, then we might come to surmise that the general macro view of Tesla might well be proven correct. And in doing so, inflict enormous damage on the WS financial investors / adviser / funds / community, especially as the share price tends more and more to reflect the strong macro picture, and less and less the Chanos / naked short / talk twaddle community. It is after all, little different from the political party propaganda, disinformation and lies. And when seen this way will wake the investors up to the enormous con. Or, am I talking twaddle, because there will at some point be a breaking point?
Tesla only down 8% this morning after the call. I'd say that's a relative success based on previous experience.
Musk just said, in the earnings call, that people want to buy a Tesla, but they cannot afford one. Yet RK doesn't understand why Tesla is not marketing???
Just give the cars away for free!
Why waste money doing marketing if every car will be sold anyway. 90% buyers are new buyers meaning people somehow know that Tesla cars exist. They just need to find the money to buy.
I used to be a Tesla fanboy. I owned a lot o stock for four years, up until two weeks ago. So glad I’m out.
Buh, bye.
Just remember this two years from now.
Same here! I am out of the cult. I might get back in if the price is right ,but I will get out again if I see red flags. I 4x my money. I am not greedy. There are plenty of places to park my money for the next couple of years.
@@jim7297 How is the price not right?
@@timower5850 Well almost there. $174.80 is my target. I thought it would take 2 months.
love to hear your guesses about where Tesla would be if they DID go private.
Tesla 4th Quarter Earnings gave a poor 2024 forecast!😂
Tesla will have lower earnings in 2024 but the rest of the auto industry will have negative earnings.
100GW ... not 2024... 75k Semi? ... not in 2024, 6k in COGS? Not in 2024
Randy, I hope they don’t switch the Model Y until they vastly improve the 4680 performance. Also there are tremendous drawbacks to having structural battery packs if you ever need to replace he pack due to malfunctions or auto accident. I will be buying my first Tesla in March and I hope I get it before the switch. I will b3 gettung a Y Long Range...
It takes 24 hrs for the markets to react
Troy is at 2,060,000. He has been super close each year ??
Agree 💯. Optimus is 2030! Disagree 💯 Elon was almost depressed. Key for TSLA is more robust charging infrastructure, battery technology, range and EV COGS. 🎾
I’m so pumped. I sold a third of my position and bought NVDA a month ago. Once the dust settles I’ll buy back in before this next growth wave.
❤
I think it was a very(overly) Conservative Call.
Intentionally so.
Thanks, fellow boomers. The youngers are pulling their hair out. The pros are selling. You talk it real.
Can you imagine where this stock would be in a bear market? The market is setting records. This stock gets the benefit of being in a strong index (S&P 500). The stock is still pummeled.
Wondering if the Carahsoft report on how much it costs to build an unboxed car through Elon into a tizzy about giving away the milk at Investor Day. 😂😂😂
$3k what’s that 7% I’m sure most of the cost is materials I’m sure they squeezed the suppliers for that
Is Elon/Tesla just trying to suppress the price so that they can approve a new compensation package to give Elon 25% control on the cheap?
Those who thought Optimus was going to save them by massive revenues in 2026, did you hear or what bag lino said? They haven't solved how the robot can do something useful, that's what still missing. So how can you project that out
Lack of guidance?? FSD this year, good chance of first Optimus units next year and ramp of next gen vehicle 2nd half of 2025.
FSD = For Sure Dangerous, not happening.
Optimus = Useless product, an expensive toy only a few geeks will buy.
$25K car = You think it will come out in 2025?????? LOL Ask the Roadster customer how long they been waiting for that since it was announce 6 years ago.
@@walden6272 thanks for the laugh 😂
Tesla is in the toilet. They are dominating for sure in all areas. You guys are still happy.
I don't think it was meant for underwater travel
$195.5 / SH
Headlines are
Tesla earnings miss and 2024 slowing sales!
iPhone was launched in 2007 not 1997
Estimates 2024 is ????? 2,x Mio???????? 13%?????
So in short... Tesla shares will go down now and remain flat / slight climb. The company will grow in 2024 but as a year ..... it will be boring. Nothing even starts to happen until 2025.
You know a couple weeks ago I was in mourning as I had to sell 8000 of my TSLA shares to buy a house my wife and I fell in love with. We had to pay all cash as I have no job. I sold them at $258/share. Now that TSLA is $195.50/share I feel like my guardian angel was watching over our financial wellbeing. Now I have to decide what to do with my remaining shares as it looks like TSLA is going to bump along sideways or down.
I had 11k shares and sold off 3k worth at 200 per share the last earnings call. Where’s my guardian Angel ?
wtf house are you buying to sell 8000 shares? all cash?
@@markavelisocal Your guardian angel is trying to teach you a valuable lesson. Sometimes you have to suffer to gain wisdom.
@@sur83848 you have to pay capital gains tax on that sale.
@43:12 yes, but not quite well enough yet. I’m pretty sure FSD is still missing an important piece of architecture. Notably the ability to handle what-if. Once FSD includes a simulation engine for evaluation of contingencies, I’ll start believing in it enough to maybe let it drive my car.
Wish they just affirmed WS
2.1 or 2.2 M guidance.
I think sometimes Elon gets a mental block.
Elon likes to be coy at times
He is playing it cool. And a lot will depend on interest rates.
cope. The only number that matters is the stock price and that number always sucks
This guy needs to stop making predictions; he has NEVER been close. He is causing people to lose money.
400 by the end of January. As far off as you can be.
Bot is so way off, its of little value now.
Tesla management spent a lot of effort today making the case for Wall Street not invest in Tesla until at least 2025
2028 and just maybe the stock price Might go up... Nothing positive in this Tesla stock anymore.
Elon has to do better on "guidance?" Are Frunkin' analysts blind?
Elon could take X public...sell 49% and buy Tesla stock
X is worthless!
X is worthless!
X is worthless!
I don’t think I’ll ever get my money back on my Tesla investment
Patience my child
Keep thinking like that I will buy off you on the dip. Clearly you have been holding for less than 3 years. I will take good care of them for the next 10 to 15 years. Perhaps you should stick with SP500 or Nasdaq ETFs.
@@chrisar6068I’ve actually been holding for more than 3 years, since December 2020
@@wysiwyg1 not everyone has a 10 year waiting period pal.
Unfortunately, it takes time to make money in long term investments. Although it grew 50% in 2023, so I assume timing was a factor for your.
TSLA is a long play, 6 years out will be big and 16 years will be much bigger.
2025 is the time to short Tesla, it's Elon's chinese zodiac enemy year
Please take care of the person who coded this software i built it carefully i hope nobody died in it i get mad elon is homeless currently 😢im snitching
I went into Nivida. Sold Tesla last earnings. The fact is Nivida,make money now in 2024 . Then, if you believe Elon. Then buy back. If Elon is even still around.
Dojo is a Dodo
Larry isnt what he is pretending to be!
Bad Bruno strikes again ! Who are you PRETENDING to be Bruno ????
Great earning review but the street seems are bunch of air heads ! $tsla is -$12.22 AH !