Tesla’s Billion-Dollar Bot Business w/ Cern Basher
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 31 พ.ค. 2024
- Our guest today has updated his financial and business model for Tesla Bot Gen 2. With these new capabilities, what are the use cases and what's the forecast for Tesla’s revenue and margins.
Follow Cern on X: @CernBasher
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Herbert
yes, thank you 👍
What you are missing is that 3D printers are robots too. Think about what it does and what we think robots do.
I love it when I get home and my bread is on top of my popsicles and my bread is all soggy. Humans rock! ha ha
It's kinda weird. We have robot arms in industry, yet no tax. Now suddenly they may want tax. Both a humanoid robot and a robot arm will displace workers. Why weren't we taxing robot arms in industry when they came out? Are we now? I know we've been "up in arms" about robots replacing workers, but tax hasn't been an issue on a broad scale. Curious to know all the details on this topic.
Slaves. Most advantageous even, slaves that don't complain. I think we need a word for slave that's not slave. I know! Robot! lol It's going to be a very strange world soon. The real question about the idea of a slave is, "what is our reflection on ourselves, versus how do we look at other people.... or things". Now we have to ask ourselves, are "robots" a philosophically "okay" entity we can enslave? Our food is slaved. We kill it and eat it. (Pretty sure any cow is going to complain about being food). The philosophical implications are crazy to think about.
The next time TSLA stock takes off people will be shocked and dismayed about having missed the opportunity to have bought in at these sub $300 levels.
Couldn’t agree more❤
Elon will find a way to sabotage Tesla, he always does…😢
Elon benefits from s lower valuation. Less attrition from staff calling in rich and less MSM stories about his net worth.
@@whowhy9023I agree. Elon will only allow the stock to rise when all his projects are completed. Otherwise, he loses to many employees to the "millionaire disease."
Bot + Dojo + Grok
The next decade is going to be interesting
Indeed
The return of Cern Basher!!!! Volume 1 Episode three!!
I have done three interviews with Herbert now
Long term (2013) investor here. Been following every Tesla TH-camr since GaliZac/Jesse/pre SMR and this is quickly becoming my favorite channel. Cheers to you.
Remember that the Luddite movement initially destroyed the looms. So initially the bots, in volume, will cause the same effect. The first wave of bots will be scorned by some.
Botdites?
@@neilkelsey1762What about Bottites? Though that would imply a completely different group of people. 😁
@@MarkXHolland I imagine Bottites will be the people that lets say "embrace" the bots 🤣
Great work from Cern putting this together!! Very thankful!!👏🏽🙏🏼🙋🏻♂️
Persons like Elon Musk are admirable for leading the EV industry without it US is left behind. It is even more admirable that he is also into AI and Robotics, not mentioning Energy storage solutions, SpaceX, Starlink.
As 12k annual income and turning 70 next year precludes me from FSD/car and Optimus robot services.
A year went by as I worked on my own robo model and it’s so good to see similar model threads.
I want to join you all in this new future from afar. Working toward my brighter future with Tesla products to improve my standards of living. ❤
A bot does not need to be a part of a labor union. If Tesla uses this bot in their factories, it would catapult them even further ahead of the competition.
I get that. Eventually the customers who remain (the really well off who don't directly serve others) will be hit with a loading because bots, you know, still need maintenance, they're not working for you for nothing, so they won't be free.
Cern, amazingly ironic you referenced Lowery’s book relating to Optimus. Just a few days ago on X someone was saying ‘nice toy’. I used Lowery’s common Foch quote about airplanes being I nice toy but no military value..
Terrifying to think of humanoid robots on the battlefield, but if I were the parent of a soldier, I’d gladly pay for several robots to take their place. The ethical questions around robots at war really should just make us question the ethics of humans at war
Walking pieces of metal shooting at each other, how idiotic. Just proves how stupid humans are.
Maybe humans won't have to fight each other someday in wars, but if bots get sentient then they might get upset lol
And maybe eventually even robots won't have to fight each other anymore, going to be interesting how things play-out, and terrifying too, but exciting
The modern “ethics” of war are tied directly to the funding of war to keep the weapons manufacturers in business. Used weapons need to be replaced . Then there’s the “funding” of the war effort that creates a slush fund for powerful politicians to tap for personal enrichment.
A good job could be for the Bot to clear out mines. On the battle field.
What if the bots employed non lethal force against humans?
They just go in and take away all the weapons! They’d be amazing peace keepers in any conflict.
I didn't think about farm work. I was thinking mostly factory or warehouse jobs, but if you think about the labor involved in picking apples or other fruit, robots have the ability to scan for ripeness or even test for sugar content to see if they are ready and you could just have an army of bots out in the field 24/7 testing fruit and picking when it's ready. Think about the garbage in the streets and an army of bots doing basic cleaning, picking up trash, greeting people as they walk by, calling police bots when there's crime, recording the criminals...
Yes - there's a lot of toil in farm work. Once the cost of labor is driven down to a few dollars per hour, there will be an explosion of demand for labor. We will be able to do things that were previously too expensive before. For example, there could be a fleet of bots that walk around cities picking up trash. Police bots sound a bit scary, but certainly cities could be made safer.
One day, one bot, one hectare, one family will equal self sufficiency? Maybe.
@@carl-Sp There will come a time when people will wonder how we lived without bots!
No one is seeing that all of the bots will do all of those things with absolute excellence all of the time. Specialization is a human concept and will fall away with the introduction of this technology. The farmer/police/janitor/etc.-bot will do it all and do it the best, and there will be millions of them.
@@solidgoldmind Solid point!
As for shopping, if one is in a hurry, or is easily stressed, staying home is becoming an option that becomes easier as every year passes.
This is the trend in the US,. When I travel to the islands, or Mexico, or Netherlands... the people are more engaged and better equipped emotionally to live life.
PS. Great show Herbert, and great guest. Between Cern, Jeff, Scott and Larry.... what a team you have there.
Don't forget Scott Walter!
@@CernBasher Ahh... Optimus would have corrected me before I hit the blue button. I will add Mr. Walker to my comment.
Thank you. Thank you for everything Mr. Basher.
Cern is definitely a humble deep thinker with expansive creativity. You definitely need to have an open mind to see where we are going and to dream like the science fiction novelist. In many ways Sci-fi invents the future.
You have to first have a vision of the future if you are to build it. I have neither the vision or the ability to build it, but I do try to think about it!
@@CernBasher bot sports will totally be a thing in some form or another
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she often interacts on Telegrams, using the user below.
Where is Apple with this?
The bot can function as a doctor, lawyer, counselor, psychologist in your own home, and do housekeeping too. Functions that can all iteratively evolve and improve.
Good question about Apple. I do see Tesla's bot as a long-term threat to Apple's computing ecosystem.
A humanoid bot could be an amazing teacher - not only could it teach at each person's individual pace, but it could also show you how to do things. One on one tutoring for all ages!
Why do we always make Apple the key competitor for any breakthrough technology? Look how long it's taking to jump into VR/AR.
Great points list to use to consider the future. One other issue to consider is demand due to demographic collapse
It's why China are so set on getting bots
Great interview Herbert. Cern is a treasure!
I'm so glad Elon landed in the U.S.A.
I'm glad he landed on Earth.
I'm glad I was able to land in the same time period on the Earth as all of you ❤
Great video! The robots are coming. Thanks!
Thanks guys. We're witnessing the greatest invention in the history on mankind - full automation of labor.
Yea! massive unemployment- no jobs, no money except for the handful of people that own the means of production. This is where we stridently tell humanity to eat cake: UBI.
@@ricinro if Tesla makes anywhere near the amount of money that is being discussed here, they would be paying trillions in taxes. That money will pay for the UBI. To me, the bigger question might be, what happens to humanity when there are billions of purposeless people who do nothing but exist from cradle to grave?
Best to acquire as much Tesla shares as possible just in case me thinks
Corporations pay little in taxes. Each robot that replaces a human would need to pay that displaced worker's UBI. So if Corp Z bought a Optimus for $20k it would probably need pay $60-$100K each year.@@darylfoster7944
Watch out for companies that buy/rent bots to assist in production. These companies will be more productive and more profitable, and more worthy for investmwnt.
Good point. A new dynamic is already being added to investing in companies aligning with Tesla for the automotive tech (i.e Hertz, Uber, BP, etc). Similar dimensions of major growth in various sectors of the market will definitely benefit from the bot technologies
18:03 It will replace the phone. Neuralink plus bots. It would multiply a single humans efforts by at least 3x.
So many more things to think about. . . “No one mourns the guy who picked up the horse manure”. . .
So much more time to go out and ride my bicycle 😊
You're going to ride your bike all day from age 3 until old age? I see an issue with billions of worthless, purposeless, unemployable humans living on handouts from the day they're born until the day they die. Especially a problem with young men, who are prone to violence when they have no direction.
All must find their own purpose in life
I think progress will be incredibly fast. It’s insane to think just 2 or 3 years from now what will it be like.
the video makes it seem like these bots will not be actually mass produced and in our homes until the 2030s
yeah 2033
@@Matt-ym3if I disagree. This is incredible progress for just 2 years. We will see major improvements very fast.
@@truenorthtreasureseekers5858 i sway toward that opinion too, however, there are
this video makes it seem like as far as mass production and distribution to the household may take 5 years
VR glasses could also become your tool for communication or acquiring information and learning. It would be your preference as to what device to use with GAI. Many many choices.
The industrial use for Bots alone will be 100 million per year. Every Amazon warehouse worker and all other companies that use similar $50k/year employees, will all be replaced by Bots. Plus the personal bots will be at least 10% of homes. It's going to be massive.
Largest use will be a home assistant helping elderly remain independent and in their homes much longer.
That will be an excellent use case. It will make for a great companion as well.
@@CernBasher and it can read any book for you, never gets tired
I think the Tesla bot has the opportunity to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. The U.S. cannot compete on labor costs with Chinese manufacturing, but with Tesla bot it can and zero U.S. jobs are lost from this.
Agreed. I'm working on a paper regarding this very topic.
A massively important point!
Tesla already doing this with fixed bots, with better design like castings, like Ethernet wiring. CATL also highly automated, easy to ramp production by building more machines. How about clothing & footwear sweatshops? Fast food?
Such a brilliant and important point 5:48
Bot will replace smart phone, the guest is right.
Trivial use case.
Like replacing your fork with a blender. You could do it, but would you really want to?
This is INCREDIBLE!
Imo Cerns intuitions and ideas are spot on:
- I totally see bots becoming a fantastic and common digital interface. Reducing if not replacing common uses of phones and computers. (neuralink being common and capable is way further out there.) If I have a phone and Optimus, Who do you think will be carrying my phone? Def not me.🙂
- bot sports will very likely be the learning and proving grounds for advanced bots, and bot development.
No different than car enthusiasts / industry: racing / testing /developing /spectating/ marketing cars now
-
All I know is that people are creative - there is no doubt that we will come up with all kinds of fun applications for bots!
There is also many needs for it
In Bertrand Russell's essay in praise of idleness, he makes the point that we create things and do things not just because we value the creation and the doing, but we value the consumption, the consumption makes creation more valuable. AI music is good for nothing unless theres someone to enjoy it, anything that AI creates will only exist as valuable if Humans deem it to be so. With AI taking all human work, humans will be left to pursue or consume whatever they want. VR and AR tech will also come on leaps and bounds along with robotics so humans will have endless stuff to do, literally anything you can imagine if it gets to full dive VR. And if that doesn't sound good I'm sure the Amish will still be doing their thing.
The amount of hours worked in a day is only limited by the battery recharging time, unless there is a way to charge the bot while it is still working.
Yes, the bot should be able to stand on a pad and charge while working.
Power cord. Most workplaces would work fine wit the bot plugged in.
Inductive charging from the floor. This is why Tesla recently purchased a inductive charging company (could be used for wirelessly charging vehicles at home too).
Depends how much it has to move around. If stationary, no problem. But the battery will be small and quick to charge anyway.
Please no tax on the machine (bot).... tax the profits only of the company. Open that door will/could open to tax on computers, phones, cash registers, etc.
100% agree. Taxing a finished good is unprecedented.
We have it already on everything called sales tax.
Eventually, we will want to create our own custom bots. I see an impending explosion of cute, plush, highly interactive, mentor/tutor/companions with infinitely varied shapes and capabilities, very kid friendly.
Yes, the bots need to come in many different forms.
Finally I can build myself a girlfriend!!
Waifu bots incoming
Nobody wants to mention sex bots, but they are an obvious part of this future
Very thoughtful and insightful video
Fantastic show again guys love it
I wonder what will happen when they start to have a big number in Tesla factories. And the unionized factories of other manufacturers won’t be allowed to buy bots. They will come crashing down even faster.
Unions will soon be IRRELEVANT!!
A side-by-side factory tour would really hammer home the differences between Tesla and others at that point
3:06 “The bot that can do anything and everything” hasn’t really done much yet. It has moved an egg from one place to another. Its predecessor has sorted giant Lego by colour. It hasn’t out competed special needs coop students who come to a workplace with attendants to supervise them. The project is advancing remarkably fast in the hardware department and the use of neural nets that are trained instead of programmed is very promising but it hasn’t gotten to the starting line yet, let alone started the race.
Agreed. That's coming... we stand at the start of an exponential curve.
Ah yes, time is both for and against us my friend. Utilize it carefully from here 🙏
You don't see it. It's not about the egg, it's about how it's done.
Bedpans, bedding changes, repetitive nursing procedures which can free that skill set for interpersonal demands.
Robots will be used first for shuffling around things in factory.
I watched a video of workers on the line. The bot needs to be so flexible in footing and movement to the rolling line on the floor.
Or they will have to have stop and go line on the floor as the line is always moving so the bot would need dexterity to get up and down the platform that is moving slowly
That’s why assume the bot will be used first in very very dumb factory work. Rolling line comes far later or they’d have to completely redesign the line how it’s setup now / and or design the bots to have extreme dexterity and speed to compensate for moving conditions
Guys thanks for your vision. I totally agree. I really can see a bot in industries and homes in the next 10 years. The market potentially is huge and the economic savings due to this technology is huge. If Tesla takes even part of this market share it will be massive. Unfortunately it's inevitable that the tech will find it's way to the battlefield. Inevitable...
We can only have faith that the merging of AI , machine learning and robots won't lead to a negative for human kind. But again the merging of these technologies is also inevitable. I like to stay optimistic
Industrial robots are stationary manufacturing tools specifically programmed to perform repetitive tasks. These tools are isolated from people for safety reasons. programming is specific to the task it is complicated requiring training and experience.
Optimus is a different class of "tool" with a large application area and can be directed to certain tasks these tasks will be preset by the manufacturer using massive amounts of video input. Specific tasks such as vacuuming the house, doing dishes, and picking strawberries will all be pre-assigned by the factory or possibly 3rd party application developers. The idea that you can tell the robot to do anything based on a voice command will require a level of general intelligence that is a long way into the future.
FYI before retirement I was the engineer in an automotive manufacturing environment responsible for designing and programming robot work cells.
Optimus bots aren't programmed. They are AI-powered and will be able to perform tasks with verbal instructions. They will be able to learn how to do a new task by watching a video of someone doing it.
@@CernBasher AI learning currently requires many videos of a task being performed, in fact, the Tesla FSD team said it took about a million videos of the task being performed to learn how to accomplish fundamentals, I assume that will go down by orders of magnitude due to new learning protocols and complexity of the task demanded.
@@jjamespacbell Yes, there is some "low-hanging fruit" here - to find ways of making training more efficient.
This will be an excellent platform for us all to "learn how to learn". The potential of this is astounding
There will be robot sports. When the car was invented, auto racing, started. People wanted the car that won
I think a major component of the bot that people are overlooking is the compute needed to train the bots. In the same way that Tesla charges for cars and then FSD is an extra due to the fact that it cost a lot of money to train it, tesla will need to charge for the compute to train the bots and this includes all the initial sunk costs for training the bot to move on it own, navigate through the real world, and do basic things. Then on top of that additional skills. So, the figures of $10k or $20k for a bot that are being thrown around are a bit silly because I think folks are just considering the hardware alone.
Yes, this an important point. Although at the point they manufacture bots at massive scale, most of those compute costs are just sunk R&D and won't flow through the income statement (they are hurting current profits). As an extension of your point: the massive infrastructure/computing cost makes if very difficult for any competition who are thinking about entering this market. It's similar to the challenge that other auto companies have if they want to compete in the EV space - they must first invest billions of dollars to build the factories and construct an entirely new supply chain. And as we've seen, this is no easy task even though the "competition is coming."
Good points. It will take some time and much resources to get to scale, but not nearly as much time as a car or truck. I think it will actually scale closer to the rate of compute as, say mobile phones/laptops/game consoles. So, it will absolutely be important to consider software/network capabilities as well as hardware together.
The fused spine makes it look crippled with the current walking kinematics but the hands look amazing.
All tech innovation looks poor in the beginning. Just remember that what you see today is as bad as it's ever going to be.
These very large 'profit' numbers are illustrative of how compelling it has been for Mankind to enslave his fellow man and use his captive's labor to his own ends.
Good point!
And this is what has been disclosed!
Herbert, great questions and counter questions, I am more on the 50/50 spectrum like you. Cern, really interesting thoughts about our future with the Tesla Bot Keep it up guys!
(Regarding Bot Sports: I think that is very likely. Just look at the millions of people going crazy about some people kicking something round into a rectangle. Combine that with Sci Fi visions like Ready Player One, Alita etc. or the Hugh Jackman Bot Boxing movie (maybe controlled via Neuralink, so people can mess their skills against each other etc.))
I think it's funny Herbert that you say it won't replace it so adamantly and then you follow it with an example of how there's been a huge Paradigm Shift between newspapers and phones why not another paradigm shift
A lot of manufacturing cost are directly related to making the environment safe for humans. This opens the door for bots that can save money in an environment that’s not friendly to humans.
If you put yourself in the mindset of a CEO who runs a warehouse where disgruntled Union employees do nothing but pull boxes off of shelves and load them onto trucks, it's not hard to imagine replacing every single one of them with robots that will do it for under $50 a day and no benefits, no strikes, and they will do it 100% accurately because they have IR vision that scans the box, scans the barcode and knows the shape and size it's supposed to be grabbing so that there is zero chance for mistakes. You would replace every single employee you could with one of these. This alone gives you 50 million bots. Then add in farm workers who pick fruit, people who do basic tasks like maintaining parks, picking up garbage, just about anything that is basic labor would be replaced. Even 100 million bots, which is absolutely underestimating, would bring in five billion in revenues per day, based on the calculations presented here. My own estimate is for trillions per year in revenues, maybe 10 trillion, and even 10% profit margin would be a trillion in profits per year. This is just for bots. Throw in autos, energy, software and all of the other stuff they haven't even thought to do yet and you get a company that I can't even fathom the value. I am 100% invested in Tesla. 100%!
Also bots don't get tired, or ill, or take breaks, or pee.
That's a good human
Most people can't see the most important moments in history even as they pass by. I'm sure there were letters of complaint to politicians and newspapers by loyal horse owners as the Model T was ramping up.
And yet, here we are...
Remember the agreement that Tesla had with westinghouse, for $1.00/ Watt of power produced by his generator, It is the same with Bot Tax it should be a small amall % of production since they are going to increase production expodentially... and only Commercial bots should be taxed.
Interesting - thank you. Yes - if labor costs are driven down to a few dollars per hour, we are going to see an explosion of demand for labor. Good idea regarding taxes on commercial bots.
Fair is Fair and if you want Workers to accept this and Employers too then you have to be fair to them and before you increase the money to the Government you have to first compensate the x Employee (severence and bot retirement), prior to paying extra to the Government. @@CernBasher
You need to analyse the core resources that go into building bots, the rare earth minerals. Do we have enough that can easily be sourced at a reasonable cost? And here is where there are many doubts. Go watch a presentation here from Simon Michaux. Bots production will be competing with all EV car makers and all other eco tech for those rare earth minerals. Their extraction and smelting is not at all eco friendly, the geopolitics and shipping also very delicate. Factor that in and don’t get swept away with the hype too much. Until now, mineral extraction has been easy, because we’ve mined the easy to find, easy to extract stuff - going forwards it’ll become increasingly harder and more expensive to mine.
Herbert, a bot could absolutely be a companion for the lonely and/or an alternative to a smartphone. You're not getting it.
Many people have told me how useful the bot would be as a companion for their elderly parents or for a child who has difficulty interacting with other people.
Let's be real, sex bots are an inevitability
I would expect strong competition to appear for such valuable product. What are your thoughts about that?
If Elon gets a move on there will be very little competition.
Waiting for the bot to be perfect is silly.
Just start mass production as soon as possible.
Mc Donald’s can use them for stacking burgers today. They will buy 100k units in a heartbeat.
Charge $35k + $3k month. That would be super cheap. Work 24/7 never sick, no holidays, weekends etc…
I wonder how much thought has been devoted to the possibilities of industrial espionage with the use of bots in factories? Cyber security would be absolutely crucial.
Gives new meaning to "see something, say something" don't it?
What would really be deflationary is if bots replaced politicians.
Haha - no doubt.
Not if the bots were programmed to be big spenders.
@@darylfoster7944 Let's hope that the bots don't get that "gene"
As Elon said, they started with the same computer as the car, but I bet they build a special board just for the bot with more visual and audio compute etc...and an ability to access the internet and cloud for info and storage...maybe liquid nitrogen cooling too.. rememger these guys also make rodkets...maybe next Gen will have a 3 piece suite...and a full color High res Flex screen face with full facial aplearences ....
A digital face would be sick!
Perhaps we will see a general bot tax of 30% and a general import tax of 40%, so that imported goods will always be slightly more expensive than locally produced goods. That way, there will also be enough money in each country (if we still have such a thing) to finance an unconditional basic income or something similar.
A 33% ROBot tax would generate a lot of revenue, but I'm not sure it's enough if job displacement is massive. The good news is that this won't happen overnight so humanity has some time to adjust... hopefully.
Any pundit's most regrettable comment: "'This might be Elon's dumbest idea yet.'"
Starlink is going to be a great weapon too.
In this scenario (taxed in order to compensate for lost work), there's a potential for this to result in an almost absolute dependance on government distributed universal income. We need to think hard about this and prevent allowing a central body to have that much control over everyone.
The question of labour-saving devices doesn't become a question of morality until it affects "you."
Even in the best scenario, if Optimus plays out to scale, human psychological problems are going to skyrocket. Free everything and no effort needed. Humans need a reason to wake up in the morning and be motivated to strive and struggle and achieve/fail their goals to give them meaning. We will have to develop alternative challenges and meaning fast.
Robots learning from robots rather than humans is where things get scary with exponential mental growth.
❤ Herbert did you contradict yourself you said that robots will not replace your phone and then you said that Optimus will speak everything to you and do your research for you😊
I want my bot to say Danger Will Robinson
If bots have finite compute then there will be generalist and specialist downloads. So you could have a surgeon bot or an accountant bot specialist variants or many more generalist home help type bots.
What one bot knows, all bots know
@@solidgoldmind Sort of. At the limit of compute, not necessarily. All the generalists will know exactly the same. Eventually, each will learn independently with slight modifications to their own NN weights.
New technology creates more new technology.
Pretty interesting Herbert. On principle, I have decided to not use self-checkout. I have left a cart full of items and walked out of stores that have no cashier lanes available. It doesn't have anything to do with me bagging the goods. It is the store trying to pass the responsibility of correctly ringing up the purchase to me from them. Not going to happen (at least to me).
That's fine, but you're paying to have your purchase handled by a human, just like people paid more to have their gas pumped.
Just get it all delivered directly to your house. The best process is no process
The rental model ignores several key market dynamics: competition drives cost down, status quo resistance, owner driven markets, opensource enevibility, etc...
Let's say incremental cost can be lowered to 50k. Let's say maintenance is 10k/yr. Bot can work 24 hrs straight. Cost therefore is 10k/(365*24) or $1.14/hour
I think this is amazing, but I wish they would speed up the foot development. Also it seems to young to have what appears to be a prostrate issue. I can’t wait to watch Optimus basketball.
I loved this video and agree with 99% of it, but for neuralink part and having something invasive in your brain is just kinda scary and I prefer other technology to enhance me in the future...maybe some nanobots and just regenerative medicines to get all my organs working at the best possible capacity for my human body would be nice, and then when they learn how to make us immune to all diseases or give us new immune systems and maybe biologically enhance us then that's something I would be down for, maybe.
And you mentioned competing with machines... it's not a competition. Chess pros don't compete against Chess Engines, just other humans. It's a losing battle to try to compete when they are billions of times smarter than us in 20-30 years or something.
Yes, the Neuralink part is scary, but very exciting for those with paralysis! In time, we will get more comfortable with the idea of a supercomputer in our heads.
I think even with the rapid progress being made jobs will have to meet androids in the middle by gearing jobs to the android. There is a lot of diversity and subtlety to every day manual tasks.
I think the keys to adapting to this new humanoid robot economy will be to understand the limitations and potential contained in each iteration of the bots, and using that as an opportunity to "fill in the blanks" where needed.
Thank you Herbert and Cern for sharing your conversation... talking to a bot precedes speaking with a bot... The opening images of Terry Gilliam 's "Brazil" : a fly disturbs someone typing, so he climbs on the desk and swats the fly... which falls between the typewriter ribbon and the paper, thus modifying the ink impression from "Tuttle" to "Buttle"... and thus begins the disaster for "Buttle"... Voice recognition today is not great. It's getting better, but the "siri jokes" still happen too often. Will the Tesla Bot have 99% voice recognition ? or 50-50 ?
I don't know, but I do know that voice recognition will only improve.
Government taxing robots is not even a question. Governments also risk just nationalising the robot industry. National security being the official logic.
Positives-
Bot is more precise then a human.
Bot makes less mistakes.
Bot requires no breaks.
Bot does not get sick or tired.
Bot learns many task at once and takes less time to learn them.
Bot cost less for work then a human.
Bots do not need promotions or health care etc.
Bots do not go on strike.
Bots do not steal or lie.
Negatives-
Bot is slower then a human at current levels.
Bot parts might be costly to replace or fix.
I think Cern's objection to the app store idea is only about the amount charged by Apple. Easily fixed. Charge 3% instead of 30%. I think there is a huge opportunity here for Bot coaches. It could become a new industry for all the people displaced by Bot labour. Teach a Bot a new skill and make it available on the Bot App Store. If all new skills are uploaded to all Bots at every update, updates will be huge and much of the info unnecessary to the majority of Bots. (They don't all need to know how to drive a Z201 Kabuto trench digger)
That's Elon's objection - Apple's 30% tax on the internet. My objection - rather, a question - is regarding how AI-powered bots will learn. Do we all have a potential role to play in that? Or is it just a few hundred engineers back at Tesla HQ training the bots? Or do the bot just watch videos and observe people doing things to learn? I hope that there's a role for people to help train the bots. That said, once one bot learns a skill it becomes part of its general knowledge (and available to all bots via the next software update) - I don't think it's compartmentalized, and therefore not something that can be packaged as an app. I could be wrong about that - and if I am - then an App Store would make sense.
Optimus will be sooo much easier to build than a car. The profit margin will be insane. The AI will be the most expensive part.
P.S. When Optimus gets a voice I hope its first words won't be "Hello, Professor Elon, would you like to play a game?"
(Joshua from the movie War Games. That'd be Elon's sense of humor.)
It will likely scale faster than the vehicles, but not quite as fast as cell phones. Probably closer to game consoles in the not too distant future. This is a very new and interesting computing platform with near endless possibilities. Very interesting time to be alive.
I am afraid it will be more like "I have the greatest enthusiasm and confidence in the mission. And I want to help you"
Bots will enable humans to teach skills to bots, yes. This skill and role for humans will need to be monetized by Tesla to make bots as widely welcome as possible. Monetization will encourage humans to interact with bots, to develop more and new kinds of interaction. The mutually beneficial nature of this economic interaction is critical to realize full value from the bots AND from the bot-human relationship. It will be necessary to work hard, long hours with government, industry, labor and many other groups to cooperatively generate many beneficial aspects of many different relatioships. Introducing bots will require much more effort than we recognize today and much of that work will need to be front loaded.
This is why we are having these conversations now.
Bot learning will simply be a software download from Dojo.
@@snookmeister55 Need for specific bots also. Like computers, no humans or business or factories want to share them.
@@henrik5761 All bots could have the same knowledge in the way vehicles do - could do many things and all things.
Don't underestimate the value of a cynical, sarcastic mode. Or a rapping mode. Or an argumentative mode. This will be fun.
Ahhh yes, there's no reason for the bot to just be like Dr Spock or Data. It could talk and act like your favorite celebrity.
So, like a wifebot?
No discussion that we will eventually have to merge.
When bots build bots, there is no limit to potential rate of production. The ability to scale production is exponential.
Of course the 'bots' still have to have the power to operate provided to each unit, but, at some point, OTHER bots will be provided with the function to directly 'recharge', first, themselves, then, military-bots or provide the military with the opportunities to recharge themselves, which will, in turn, provoke a 'protect' activity so as to provide defense of the power-providing bot benefactors against assault or opposition.
As a warfighter….it’s a race and not a war
Governments will quickly become addicted to both the tax revenue generated by bots and the labor provided by bots. Addiction will transition to dependency very fast.
The tax revenue will be going to UBI for the tens of millions of people who will be permanently unemployable.
Interesting avenue to look down. I have a feeling individuals would also become quite attached to the bot in many ways as well. Reliance on any technology has its consequences for sure.
If we truly believe tsla will go up, should I buy tsll or tslt? Is there any negative on buying these instead of tsla?
Remember, even Elon said: goverment is a corporation but one with a monopoly on legislation, taxation and violence ...
Mister President, we can NOT afford a TESLABOT gap!!
Optimus could be described as an economic singularity
Or perhaps just a Hyper-Efficient Economy: an economy that has reached an unprecedented level of efficiency and productivity, due to technological advancements, that it operates in a way that is fundamentally different from our current understanding of economics. This might involve new forms of economic organization, resource distribution, and value creation.
re optimus voice: fbow the estates of public figures might sell algorithm rights, maybe as subscription service. For example, Rodney Dangerfield in the living room.
My bot gets no respect!
Some of the best medicine out there might be laughter. Maybe bots with comedy algos could cultivate empathy and affection in humans@@CernBasher
Conjecture on Neuralink, wonder if you can comment, do you imagine avatar type development within the Neuralink UI? Can we assume any Neuralink avatar activities will be "3d", etc etc? @@CernBasher
I mean to describe the UI of the Neuralink experience. Maybe 2 years after general adoption.
I would think that humans will want to raise their own families. There is no substitute for LOVE!!
Perhaps bots, by freeing us from work/toil, will allow people to spend more time with their families, and allow some to have more kids - to address the demographic problem that Elon and other's frequently talk about.
Guess these guys never saw 'Robot Wars'.
When the montgolfier brothers first went up in the balloon, a bystander next to Benjamin Franklin said of what possible use could that ever be. Benjamin Franklin said, of what use is a new born baby?
Excellent point. Optimus is the new born baby.
@ 6:22 I'm thinking that robots could perhaps be a replacement for ppl in battlefields....ma6be in the future we could decide wars by countries setting up some kind of arena and settling differences in a sport like manner....since the winners of world wars always set up the world order for the next 40 years ....maybe the rule could be winner sets rules for next 10 years
Read Jason Lowery's book for a great discussion on this.
Or we could have the disintegration machines from the episode of Star Trek. Just fight a simulated war, then have the simulated casualties commit suicide.
@@darylfoster6133I'd rather have machines do the fighting...coming from someone who has experienced combat twice