Lot's of people. Most westerners in China are probably going to come across your channel @Strong Medicine . Additional advice based on that fact is welcome.
I live in China (Guangzhou) and all pharmacies are out of masks and gloves...if you want to buy online they are really expensive and you cannot make sure if they are real. Supermarkets run out of food and other supplies in just 2 to 3 hours and they have to close them so they can refill them for the next time. Transportation such subway, bus and even taxis are not running. To enter the city from other outside districts are guarded by the police controls, the misinformation here is huge with lots of online debates oof what to do, including "specialists" in the field , news from different channels differ from each other. It's chaos.... however, it seems it is not all lost. More and more people (young people especially ) are much more aware of this situation and they are very active online spreading information about taking precautions but still not enough.
I'm very sorry to hear you are stuck in the middle of this chaos, it's difficult enough just watching all the new information pour in each day so I can't imagine how much harder it is being right in the middle of everything. It is good to hear that information is being spread around though, that alone can help people be more prepared and take the necessary precautions to try and protect themselves and those around them. Good luck during this difficult time and stay safe!.
There.are.videos coming from china of people going thru the medical waste to get masks to resell...tho they claimed to use themselves when confronted..BEWARE
@@matthewgoff9757 Thanks mate! I'm from Spain and I have been living here for the past 15 years. My family is Chinese, most of my friends are Chinese too, so besides my research about the virus, I also know some information from family and friends. My gov. still saying that spaniards living outside of the epicenter (Hubei-Wuhan) area are safe and that at this point there is not need to panic. Consulates are closed until Feb. 9 but the Embassy is always open, of course the hot-line emergency number is always there for anything. We get constant updates from our Consulates, which it's a great thing, keep the moral up. Of course groups on the Wechat app help a lot, encouraging people to fight this things and take precautions. In the district I live so far has been reported 1 case and the person is totally isolated. The Guangdong gov. is pretty good, taking so much caution with everything. I know people online and YT are complaining about China this and that. The only thing I can say from my side and from the area I'm stuck is that everything is being taking care of. Yes, I said before the problem with Pharmacies, but that is expected. Imagine this happening in the US or Europe, it's just human nature, even though people said "stay calm", ah...no,no... people really will panic anyways (generally speaking)
@@sislertx Hi Sislertx, yeah, there actually many videos from Chinese and foreign people circulating online. Some truly heartbreaking, some really encouraging. Probably (imo) the ones that look like very scary are the ones coming from the epicenter, I assume. Also yes, as I said before, people tend to rush out and get anything they can....heck! 2 ays ago (true story) I went to the nearest supermarket and because there are not gloves in any pharmacy, I saw a guy buying like almost the full stand of the gloves to wash the dishes...like idk 50 or more....when I saw it, I got lucky and I got 2!!...I have to actually say that you can buy things online and they will deliver them to your location (not home) but you cannot buy a lot if online, online shopping is rationed at this point, so if you really need a lot of supplies, just take the risk (as I did) and go quickly early morning when the supermarket is open ( 9am) and get all you need
Risk is low you say? Some other doc said that droplet infection can be caused from a guy sneezing 2/3 meters behind you, the airborne droplet ending up in your eyes/mouth and you're infected. Its also necessary to wear masks to not accidently touch your face with your infected hands. Or to infect other people with your sneezes.
These comments are moderated. Questions and respectful dialogue are absolutely welcome. Spam, conspiracy theories, and insults are not. UPDATE #2 (2/23): For viewers just discovering this video, please keep in mind that info on the coronavirus (now COVID-19) epidemic/pandemic is changing daily, and this was recorded 3 weeks ago. While the info video remains accurate (aside from the case cluster in Germany discussed in update #1), the general sense from the international medical community, including the WHO and CDC, is that containment of the virus within China has likely failed. It is looking increasingly probable that COVID-19 will become a global pandemic with community-based transmission in Western nations. How significant this will become for us in the United States remains completely unknown - some pandemics have no overt impact on the day-to-day life of most people - but COVID-19 looks to be the most notable international public health threat in decades. UPDATE #1 (~2/6): The paper that discussed the case cluster in Germany, which is being used as evidence that asymptomatic transmission is occurring (including discussion in this video) was flawed! The authors never spoke directly with the Chinese woman, who later reported that she was experiencing symptoms while in Germany. While I appreciate the urge to release new data ASAP with an ongoing outbreak, this feels a little irresponsible on the part of the authors, and warrants retraction from the NEJM. Correction discussed here: www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong Also, I misspeak @17:30. The Ebola epidemic in West Africa that marked the beginning of a concerted effort at creating an Ebola vaccine was in 2014, not 2004.
Why no conspiracy theories? Seems like it could be potentially healthy, productive and entertaining to discuss theories surrounding the origins of the virus! ☣☣
Way before the Coronavirus, people in China and Hong Kong are taught to wear face masks in public areas - MTRs, buses, streets, malls...etc They believe wearing face masks is the ONLY and crucial way to ‘prevent’ themselves from getting sick. Yet, many got Shingles, flu/cold etc. The Coronavirus outbreak has really cause PANIC in Hong Kong where many HKers are emptying the shelves at grocery stores, stock pile face masks; some even selling ‘recycled/used’ disposable face masks.
Everyone agrees at this point that asymptomatic transmission is occurring. What's not known (and which is a huge question) is how often it's happening. There are lots of unsourced anecdotal stories about it floating around, but only one published case report (the one referenced in the video). Getting this figured out is definitely one of the CDC and WHO's priorities right now.
I figure it's not purely asymptomatic but maybe pre-fever transmission. Someone incubating the virus can still cough and sneeze and think it's due to dust, odors, allergies, or a dry throat from medications, etc.. they may not know it's specifically A CORONAVIRUS sneeze or cough. They might just feel maybe 15% crappier or more tired than usual, and not realize it's viral load growing in them before their immune system reacts.
@Gareth De Bruyn I assume it's true that the person recovered, but there is absolutely no way to tell if it was because of the medications when the patient was treated outside of a well-designed clinical trial. There is one such trial of HIV meds going on in Wuhan right now, but it will take months until there is enough data before it's known whether or not it helps.
I hope your parents stay safe and healthy! I wish I was optimistic about the new hospitals, but I agree that it seems implausible that a well supplied, 21st century hospital could be built so quickly. Hopefully, the local Chinese public health authorities are successful at directing the sickest patients to the established hospitals, and using these "pop up hospitals" for patients whose illness is relatively minor and who basically need oxygen and close monitoring.
The scariness of this spreading is the fact that incubation period is so long in comparison to other viruses. People are outbreak monkeys and don’t even know. I think this is a lot more serious then what’s being portrayed.
It's not spreading through the western world due to non east Asians having low ace2 receptors. Cases outside of Asia are from people travelling out of China
@@JTraceo The Ace-2 thing is from a tiny, 8 person study. The far more likely reason is the 50% of Chinese men being smokers, and only 1% of Chinese women.
The problem with any disease starting in China is that their government is notorious for downplaying situations like this. So the numbers we have could differ greatly from reality.. especially the deaths part. China reports the final cause of death. So if someone dies from coronavirus, but the test wasn't confirm, it isn't counted. There is a debate whether they are listing pneumonia or coronavirus for people dying.......thus making the death count look much lower.. we really cannot know for sure until we have larger numbers outside of China. Either way, upping your immune system and taking precautions can't hurt! Better to be safe than sorry.
Seasonal flu has an R0 of 1.3. A disease with an R0 of 0.01 would almost never be transmitted between people (i.e. for every 100 people who contract it, only 1 of them passes it to another person).
I think travel restrictions were put in far to late. Hope for the best but prepare for worst. Odds look bad at this point. Peak Prosperity and Dr John Campbell also keepping us up to date on this. Stay safe and well
They weren't specifically from the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, but it still may have originated from unsanitary conditions at a different wet market.
@@StrongMed South China University of Technology says it possibly came from the Wuhan biolab, which is only 300 meters away from the Wuhan wet market. "We briefly examined the histories of the laboratories and proposed that the coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory."
99.98% Isopropyl alcohol in a spray bottle - regularly spray door handles at home and at work - your friends and collegues will laugh at first but will thank you soon enough.
14:06 Great quick explanation of how easy it is to over or underestimate the fatality rate. Is there early data from the SARS and MERS epidemics that indicates how the initial figures miss the final numbers?
And when i run across them i report them.as.dangerous...especially the ones who claim they have cures that actually will harm people...and foolish people will believe them and try it..
Does anyone know how long the filters last for ? I ordered reusable/ washable face masks with the little vent thing and they have disposable filter - but they don't come with many, and are near impossible to source at the moment
Hello I’m a new subscriber and a retired RN. Another doctor early on was saying the active virus could be found in fecal samples. For those people that are contagious but still milling about, would those people in a public bathroom after flush ing cause a fine mist of virus into the air?
Will I be safe inside my house or will the air outside coming in endanger me? I live in a neighbor hood where houses are about 200 ft apart from eachother.
Excellent video. The distorted data China is obvious a huge problem. You seem to cover the actual number of infected. However it’s quite apparent that the death rate is hugely under reported. Is there anyway to get a better handle on this issue?
Dr. Strong: Thank you for your recent videos on 2019-nCoV. While I realize that information on the topic is evolving rapidly, I consider your posts to be accurate with the technical details well-explained. Hopefully, you will find time to continue posting these educational updates - especially if the outbreak becomes a true pandemic as so many media sources are indicating.
This was a lot more official that made me feel lesser anxious. Thanks. Although the death rate is seeming to increase exponentially. I do get it that it is because of the long incubation period that we are seeing deaths now but I do think that the mortality rate is rather high. I would like to hear thoughts on this from others too thanks.
You can also counter this by saying many more people are likely infected than thought. This actually would suggest the death rate is far lower, given that the severity of illness is rather varied, most people are likely surviving this virus without knowing theh had that specific virus.
Dude isn't even an epidemiologist. You can get much better information from experts that say coronavirus is a much bigger deal than this guy is letting on.
@@ModernProspector If there is an epidemiologist out there with expertise in disease outbreaks who is claiming this is a catastrophe, feel free to post a link to them. All of the epidemiologists I've seen and read are telling people to stay chill (but vigilant)
Itachikage _ take the time to do useful action. Worry is not a useful action. 🛑You will need to disinfect your phone and your wallet too. No point in washing hands and then touching the contaminated surface again.🛑
Strong Medicine one point of view is to isolate the numbers of hubei Provence from the rest of China and the world. Hubei including Wuhan is currently much more chaotic due to the ill preparation and initial phase over up. The fatality rate is much higher mainly due to lack of icu support. If you only look at cases outside of hubei over the last few days you can see the number is already flatting out. Hope it is the case that in well prepared areas the virus is somewhat under control now. Let's be patient for another few days.
I am a retired immunopathologist & physician researcher who worked in research lab with deadly viruses. Your video is outstanding. I would only add that there appears to be a huge under-estimation of number of mild cases with only slight cough that is under radar especially in children as 99%+ of under 15 yr olds have not presented as ill & surveillance starting to show their illnesses so mild they were not noticed. So asymptomatic may actually have mild cough & be infected. In epidemic areas should use mask if near others & have even mild cough.
Maybe after this is over, China will see that their view on eating anything that breaths is dangerous and the way in which they do it is of a very low standard.
Great information! I see a lot of people in the comments criticizing because they want fear-mongering, and criticism of China's people or their government... but this information is level-headed, objective and properly measured, and that is what we really need.
Hey Eric, China just confirmed(but i dont really believe it), person to person spread can be through aerosol, is it mean airborne? i understand the difference between airborne and droplets, but how about airborne and aerosol? i googled it, but i still dont understand
@@StrongMed Because when you plot the number of reported cases (or logarithm of the number of cases) versus time from the start of the outbreak, the rate of increase is significantly higher so far with the novel 2019 coronavirus than it was with SARS.
@@StrongMed Both SARS and MERS caused more than 10,000 cumulative cases in the past TWO DECADES, but this new virus has resulted in tens of thousands of cases in TWO MONTHS. And that's IF you BELIEVE the Chinese government about the 30k "confirmed" cases they say there exists. I'd sure say the R0 is a lot higher.
Isn't it true that the current calculations for the R-0 seem to lie around 4.08? I've heard and seen multiple references to a scientific paper that stated that number.
But how many of them have actually read that "scientific paper". It's here: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952v1.full.pdf It's an 800 word (i.e. short) preprint (i.e. not published, not peer reviewed) summary of a calculation that arrived at an R0 of 4.08. However, it contains little data, not a thorough description of their model, and no graphs, charts, or figures. I'm not saying it's definitely wrong, but rather it's impossible to evaluate it.
I'm having a hard time understanding two parts of your presentation that seem contradictory. At about 17:50 you state that this new coronavirus is already as bad as the SARS virus was in 2002. You go on to say your gut tells you it will be "significantly worse than SARS". But your chart at 8:13 clearly shows SARS to be both more deadly and more infectious than 2019-nCoV. Does the little pink box need to be moved significantly upwards and to the right because the early estimates are obviously very, very wrong? Or, is there a tertiary axis (or even more) needed to factor in more than just R-naught and death rate? I'm trying to understand this thing where the data on the one hand and the official reassuring claims seem very contradictory. SARS is over. In its six month lifespan it infected 8097 and killed 774. 2019-nCoV has already infected 17, 489 (more than twice that of SARS already) and, at 362 deaths, is already almost half way to the SARS final death toll. And we have only just begun. The first reported case was 12/31/2019 (although there were already infected people before this). Given that as a starting point we are only 34 days into this. Last Monday the death toll stood at 81. In the six days since the numbers (starting on Tuesday morning and going to this morning are as follows): 106, 132, 170, 213, 255, 309 and 362. The death toll has risen every day at a 17-30% rate. In three days, from Monday to Thursday, the death toll more than doubled (81 to 170). Four days later it more than doubled again (170-362). At this rate, with no vaccines and an exponential mortality dynamic, this will be catastrophic in days, not to mention weeks...no matter how prepared the WHO and others supposedly were.
That's a great question. R0 and case fatality rates are only 2 of many factors that determine the severity of an outbreak. There really needs to be more like a dozen axes to give the whole story.
@@StrongMed Thanks for getting back with me. Are you planning to do additional videos? If so, you might want to go more in depth on some of the "this doesn't make sense" dynamics that would help others like me who can clearly see that the reported data (deaths, recoveries, rate of infections) coming from China's ("downplaying") communist regime, no less, and the "assumptions" (R0 is 2.1, mortality rate [MR] is 2.0) is not lining up with reality. I cannot fathom 10 additional axes that would enable the this disease to be as rampant (infectious and deadly) as it is. From additional reading I have been doing about R0 it appears that the R0 number is very slippery and has less to do with the virus itself than it does the population in which it is observed (but I am still have a hard time wrapping my head around how R0 really works and how to use it properly in cases like these). I personally think the R0 is more like 3.1 or even higher...it would sure fit the reported data better. As for the MR (mortality rate) the only scientific data that I know of is from the study of 41 patients in Wuhan (reported in the Lancet: www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext ). While 41 is obviously a very small population sample, it is all we have. The results? 15% of the 41 have died. If the MR is actually 15% (or even half that), then the reported data starts to make sense. Alas, I have spoken too long. I DO NOT WANT YOU TO RESPOND BACK TO ME ON ANY OF THIS. Except perhaps to say "Yes, David I will do a follow up video." To be a little light-hearted with this let me share something with you. It is VRR, short for viewer return rate. Given a (current) view total of 57,819 and a projected VRR of 83.72% any future video would reach 48,406 people. I'd suggest a return to the graph at 8:13 and the dynamics that seem to suggest that the "early estimates" might need to be challenged. I don't want to scare folks, but I don't want us to treat this like it is no big deal, either.
I really appreciate you posting these, and it's just unfortunate that you have less views than the many sensational and misguided videos about secret crematoriums and airborne terror. Keep up the good work.
Are you suggesting that they don't have crematoriums? If they have one or a number its NOT secret. The fact is, their incinerators and crematoriums are going to be working overtime from all the infectious hazardous material being generated. I can confidently predict that the relatives of the deceased are NOT going to get the ashes handed back to them in a nice container or if they do, the ashes will be mixed with hundreds of others. Once quarantine is over with for Wuhan and the immediate area, they still aren't going back to work. Maybe they will have one mass funeral. I have no idea what the Chinese people are willing to accept regarding this ritual, that is, are they just going to do whatever government tells them or is the tradition too deeply rooted for any change. Sidenote: Their culture versus ours. They are voluntarily willing to cooperate with all the quarantine requirements. In the US would we do the same? I think not.
Guy Daley We’re cooperating more than the Chinese are. There are videos of Chinese people laughing about escaping quarantine, while those in the US willingly agree to 14 day quarantines.
Considering some infections appear to be asymptomatic while others are fatal, it would seem like there's the full range of recovery times. The outbreak is too new to estimate an average time to recovery for patients who become symptomatic.
Generally curious, what are the confirmed symptoms so far? I've been seeing a few videos popping up of people having fairly violent seizures on the ground in China, and some people are mentioning its due to severe fevers caused by the virus. I'm personally prepared for support care in my home but only against flu symptoms and light pneumonia symptoms if such a phrase exists for pneumonia.
Most common symptoms are cough, fever, and shortness of breath. Seizures have not been widely reported in the medical literature, and seizures are not usually caused by fevers outside of childhood.
@@StrongMed gotcha, I wanted to figure out what would be a potential cause or link between symptoms and the seizures I mentioned, but I'm still skeptical of the information the media and third parties are giving us. As long as the majority of this new virus can be self-cared with sufficient resources and attention that will be less stress on my mind.
14 days would certainly be on the long side for both respiratory viruses in general, and also for coronaviruses more specifically (according to the WHO, the upper limit of SARS was 10). There's a preprint (study released prior to publication for early feedback from scientific community) which looked at 88 confirmed cases, and found an incubation period ranging from 2 to 11 days, with an average of 6 (www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018986v2.full.pdf+html). My guess is that officials have chosen 14 days for mandatory isolation/quarantine of travelers out of an abundance of caution; they are seeing a missed case in a returning traveler as a "never event", given the enormous public health consequences.
You referenced the Lancet article forecasting the epidemic but failed to pay attention to the most shocking part about it. On figure 4, for the month of April, the authors estimated a daily incidence rate of 20-30 per 1000 population for the 6 most affected cities. Cities that have a total population of around 110 million. This means, in absolute terms: approximately 2 to 3 million NEW infections every single day when the outbreak peaks. This is already orders of magnitude worse than SARS...
As stated by the authors, those numbers only hold if transmisability remains constant, which we already know it hasn't. Entire cities are virtually shut down, and travel within Hubei providence (the epicenter) is extremely reduced, which will have very dramatic impact on the daily incident rate in a month or two.
I have a question that I have put on numerous platforms no one knows how to answer it's about Coronavirus. Given what we know about this virus can a person contract it recover and recontract it? The virus is changing and evolving every time, so it's different daily. Our bodies when fighting infections usually become resistant to the initial virus but because Coronavirus is mutating is it possible to recontract it?
As per the media, some Chinese physicians and/or scientists are suggesting this *might* be the case, but we don't know yet. It wouldn't be totally unheard of, but it would be unusual.
Was the kidney failure (AKI) associated with this infection interpreted as a part of multiorgan failure, dehydration,.. or a direct infection of the kidneys? Also, I want to know the criteria (if there's any) by which a person that have an influenza-like illness get a PCR for 2019-nCoV ? [ I mean is it just if they came with ARDS etc?!] Thanks.
I haven't seen any individual case reports detailed enough to say anything specific about multiorgan failure that might be happening with the most severe cases - though I suspect most deaths are due to ARDS-related hypoxemic respiratory failure. Regarding the criteria to test a symptomatic individual for 2019-nCoV, it's going to vary quite a bit across counties. In the US, each ER/hospital has a general policy by this point as to who warrants calling public health authorities to check if they should be tested. Luckily, I personally haven't seen someone yet whose illness and contact history rose to the level of even a remote suspicion.
Perindopril is ace 2 blocker? I use this drug my hypertonia and i so confused now. If it is with my logic this drug improves my chances against this virus becase this block ace 2 receptors? Or this drug just increase the ace 2 receptors ? Sorry my english im from europe. Pls answer me thx.
There has been a lot of speculation about the effects of ACE inhibitors (ACEI) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) on both the risk of catching COVID19, as well as on response to treatment. Unfortunately, we don't yet know the answer to either of those questions.
I work with the public in the United States, does anyone know if employers have to allow employees the ability to choose to wear a face mask while at work ? Especially if the employee has underlying other medical issues.
You mentioned vitamin C. Obviously it won't act as a shield to stop the virus, but can taking it and other vitamins as a preventative measure boost the immune system to reduce the risk of having a serious case of the virus and/or reduce the time one is ill?
No. Vitamin C does not "boost the immune system" despite many frequent claims to the contrary by laypersons, naturopaths, and in particular, companies selling Vitamin C products. Unlike some "natural" products, taking vitamin C in conventional doses doesn't carry any risk of harm, but it will provide false reassurance that one is protected against coronavirus to some degree. Much better to wash hands frequently and keep your distance from people who look sick!
"Contrary to belief, it was not contracted from eating bats due to cooking negating the virus".....have you *SEEN ALL THE VIDEOS OF WUHAN MARKET WHERE PEOPLE EAT THE ANIMALS LIVE AND RAW?!*
It’s not about the consumption of the animal, the primary reason is about the unsanitary environments that cause the initial infection. Given the proximity and those poor environmental standards a crossover event has an increased likelihood.
If it's not airborne transmission, how are asymptomatic people spreading it, if they are not coughing? To end up on fomites wouldn't there need to be coughing or would normal respiration do it?
Dr. Strong, Thank you very much for this very informative video. As you know, there have been four cases in Bay Area (considering San Benito County not too far away from San Jose). I notice that all of them are not hospitalized. Is this the better approach than keeping them in hospitals until they are recovered?
Yes, it's the correct approach. The worst place to put a person infected with coronavirus is in a hospital surrounded by elderly and immunocompromised patients, and where hospital staff will be continuous coming and going (personal protective equipment notwithstanding). Nosocomial (hospital-based) transmission was a serious problem during SARS and during several prior MERS outbreaks. Confirmed cases should only be hospitalized if their own medical condition warrants it (i.e. if the coronavirus patient needs oxygen therapy or mechanical ventilation). Thanks for pointing out the San Benito cases - I hadn't heard about them yet! It's hard to stay fully up to date when there is so much changing information.
@@StrongMed Aren't isolation wards in hospitals meant to be at a lower pressure than the atmospheric to prevent transmission to other immunocompromised patients in the hospital? How will you ensure that a person under self-quarantine at home is not inadvertently infecting his own family and then his family ends up going to the market and infecting 3 other people because they are incubating without any symptoms (like that case in Germany)? One more question, given the fact that all coronaviruses are from the same family, does that not mean that they have a similar size and mass? If so, then given the fact that H1N1 spreads through the airborne route (I mean aerosol, not droplets), does that not imply that 2019-nCoV will also spread through airborne route? I remember reading that 2019-nCoV is 400-900 nm in size and can be suspended in aerosol droplets as small as 3 micrometer in size. This is much smaller than the 5 micron limit which means that these droplets can travel straight into the alveoli. This is also consistent with the observation that 2019-nCoV has a preference for the deeper parts of our respiratory system (cough much more common than rhinitis as a symptom). Thanks in advance :)
@@StrongMed Thanks for the reply. So can this be considered as a somewhat suboptimal solution due to the lack of specialized medical facilities dealing with such disease in the area? www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/San-Benito-coronavirus-patients-worsen-overnight-15026758.php
@@valleynomad Hospitals like UCSF and Stanford have appropriate rooms and isolation suites that can handle a relatively modest number of cases like this, and the treating clinicians have been sufficiently trained on procedures. You can also bet that the hospital admins, infection control, and the public health department are all watching the situation extremely closely. So I'm confident that it's safe for everyone. But for a patient not sick enough to otherwise warrant hospitalization, it's still much preferable to keep them isolated at home (provided that they are reliable enough to maintain that isolation and aren't tempted to run out for a quick trip to the store...)
I appreciated how thorough your presentation was in regards to general understanding of infectious diseases, so I subscribed. However...(you felt that coming didn't you?)...telling people not to panic mainly for reasons assumption being by viewer that this advice is coming by way of medical professional assessment, the advice is then obliterated by expression of fact medical professionals themselves are stealing face-masks. As this only gives rise to understanding also expressed as towards *uncertainty* of exact carriage, onset and incubation (not to mention death rate), the mention of these uncertainties should then be enhanced by the example of the German patient. Was this virus introduced purposefully by an influence? I commend your advice for viewers not to fall for advertised ruse cures or prevention products to the virus relevant, but with vitamin C example being specifically mentioned, remember that an ounce of prevention through boosting the immune system is worth a pound of cure for which there is not now one. I believe the immune system of the Chinese people has been greatly hampered by air, et al. pollutants and this leaves them more vulnerable on many levels of understanding in this matter.. histamine levels and breathing...lying on the gut as for better breathing...many factors of finding best results are being interspersed and coming from various medical trials and records in finding of best treatment in these matters, not just one...all connected with greater knowledge and with better improvement for optimal health and staving off death with this virus. All above being mentioned, it is my assessment that most everything delivered as advice should be considered snake oil...particularly since *if there is* outside influence placing this virus in the system with hopes of infecting as many possible, the best advice for such implementation would be not to panic. As the doctor mentioned in his video that time could and will quickly change advice and facts as we now know them regarding this infection which was given herein, I do not see my assessment of what was expressed as possibly changed with new comment, or to be better understood by pointing out any new facts, both presently and in the future..
I appreciate the interspersed praise. However, I didn't say that medical professionals were stealing face masks. I said (I think) hospital employees. And it would be more accurate to say that distribution of N95 masks are being more tightly regulated because of the belief that they are being stolen from hospitals; I don't think anyone has actually been caught per se. They could be patient visitors for all we know. Also, Vitamin C does not "boost the immune system". That's just a very successful marketing campaign.
@@StrongMed I was not intending to argue facts but one thing is for certain that many people make public claim on a variety of issues that lead to legal action. I hope this helps.
@@StrongMed *Quantum Computers* ....we were looking for a PURPOSE for them, other than to play Minecraft quite efficiently! *THIS IS IT!* - Give this 'Problem', [The genetic code of China shared the new virus, also know as *"2019-nCoV"* ] to a Quantum Computer, a problem that is taking lives FAST & is need of a solution in Days, not mths or yrs! Someone pls get in touch with GOOGLE & Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai to get himself & his supernerd HEROS along with their "Quantum SUPREMACY" &have them find a Solution to CORONA VIRUS To Save us all in a few hrs or less. Maybe it will find that the solution is a natural food such as zucchini, or a unique drug or a combo of both. NB: - If you know any other 'Brains' with access to a Quantum Computer, pls see if you can colab with them & find a Solution to this problem, this endemic, Corona Virus
Can I ask a question, it seams silly but I am concerned, I've ordered some sun glasses on the internet that comes from China, the parcel is over 2 weeks later, I understand it may be because of the virus, and it may be in courenteen. My question is am I likely to catch it when it arrives at my house. Or am I being silly?
Would you please give a comment on the reports of the virus being man made mixed with HIV ! , would you also please use some mathematical way of predicting fatalities through the next 4 months based only on the info and rates we have now , without maybes at all , please , as I see I can trust the answers you are going to give . Thank you for your efforts, really appreciated 🙏
The rumor that the coronavirus was bioengineered using sequences from HIV has been thoroughly debunked by the scientific community. Here's a relevant article posted yesterday to Forbes about it: www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/02/02/no-coronavirus-was-not-bioengineered-to-put-pieces-of-hiv-in-it/#3eb1355e56cb. And a Twitter thread doing the same by a virologist: twitter.com/trvrb/status/1223666856923291648 Regarding predictions of cases and deaths 4 months out from now, unfortunately it's impossible. It's not just a matter of having enough of the current data (which we don't), but it also depends upon the future response of the international medical community (e.g. WHO), affected nations' public health services (e.g. CDC in the US), and the actions of individual people. There's no way to know when a city will be quarantined or have a quarantine lifted, whether individuals with suspected cases will adhere to isolation protocols, whether any antiviral meds currently in clinical trials will be successful, or how long until a vaccine is ready.
I'm really sorry, but I can't offer medical advice intended for a specific person. I strongly recommend speaking with your parent about your concerns. But unless you are in China or have been in direct close contact with someone who has been to China in the past 5-6 weeks, it is *extremely* unlikely that either you or your sister have caught this new coronavirus.
In terms of personal safety concerns; 1) safe distance between individuals for droplets to not be a problem? 2) surface disinfection, will a 10% bleach solution kill the virus or is there another thing recommended?
I have rheumatoid arthritis and copd and I’m taking methotrexate. I get hospitalised at least once a year with pneumonia and sepsis and sometimes that stems from a simple cold. I’m housebound so that’s a positive. Can’t find any masks at a decent price. I’m in UK and my daughter came home from school this weekend with flu symptoms, I’ve only just stopped antibiotics and steroids after a month fighting another flu bug. Not sure I can handle this one or coronavirus. Thanks for the information very good video on the subject. Praying the death rate doesn’t increase. My family and I suffered terribly with swine flu and my son was hospitalised and that was before I was sick and immune suppressed! Good luck world xx
Thank you for the concise, clearly explained information on this important topic. I decided to subscribe after you admitted that employees at medical facilities were stealing face masks. That kind of honesty is greatly appreciated in a sea of information where it's hard to trust unknown "experts". I'm a mom and gramma with kids living in several different situations who count on me to provide them the best information I can find across a wide range of serious topics. You just made my search for truthful information much easier and I am grateful for your knowledge and also all in the medical community who risk their lives for all of us. May our Creator bless you and keep you and yours safe and well!
Dear colleague, I was wondering how the patients with only gastrointestinal symptoms are doing clinically and if they have a better prognosis. Are all deaths related to respiratory complications like pneumonia/ARDS? If we would infect healthy people with the virus orally, could we prevent the respiratory complications to occur? Sure, people would still be sick with diarrhoea but that seems much better manageable than the treatment of respiratory complications. Like a living vaccine, with all risks that come with it, probably not ethical.
Is it possible that those who worked in the Huanan Animal market had a mild level of herd immunity against Bat viruses due to their proximity? That would explain that the second case to be reported had visited the Huanan market. Thereafter the cases regularly had contact with the market for a few days. Thereafter the spread is human to human.
Thanks Dr. Strong. Maybe in the next video you can add some information about the specific efforts being done by the CDC/WHO in managing this epidemic. Also some information on the process of self-quarantine and reporting of cases. Thanks again! Looking forward to your next one.
Nice video, subscribed. Optional, unsolicited feedback, offered respectfully: You might consider investing in a better quality mic, and manually focus that camera on your eyes. You're quite fuzzy. I would also reconsider the t-shirt. You're not here to tell us how to get rid of the pests in our gardens. But I'm old-fashioned that way.
It's not the mic, it's the recording space that unfortunately can't be better sound treated. And regarding the T-shirt, I wear professional clothing all day long - I recorded this at 4am and just needed to wear something comfortable for once.
According to Lancet report of first 99 cases - current death rate is 11% while 58% of patients are still being treated, so that death rate could potentially grow.
The 'official' numbers definitely don't add up.. there has to be way more than they've said. Why keep it so quiet otherwise? What do they gain from that.. something is not right
China gains nothing at this point, which is why the official numbers being way too low likely represents the medical system becoming overwhelmed and unable to keep up with testing, rather than it being a deliberate act of underreporting. (This was not the case during December, in which reports from China suggested local officials were deliberately downplaying the outbreak)
That's a great question. The first confirmed case began symptomatic on Dec 1, but it's certainly possible he/she had acquired the infection not directly from an animal, but rather from an asymptomatic carrier (who was never subsequently diagnosed). Unless that first index case reported some very dramatic animal exposure (e.g. bitten by a bat) in the days prior to symptom onset, we'll probably never know.
@@StrongMed Yes, let's say the first person is bitten or whatever by a bat on November 28. The 29th feels fine but meets a couple of people throughout the day, the 30th same thing and the the 1st of December he/she gets diagnosed... The people he/she interacted with on the 29th 30th got infected but the infected person at the time felt fine. That'd be an asymptomatic transmission?
The pneumonia vaccine only protects against one species of bacteria, streptococcus pneumoniae. Unfortunately, most bacterial superinfections of viral pneumonias are from other bacteria. So the bottom line is that it may protect a small amount, but no more than that.
If the numbers are low from China. (From intentional or from lack of testing supplies) would you say the ratio of infected/dead/recovered are correct at least?? Cause if not then all data is compromised. Long as the ratio is correct then we can amass data. It will just scale up. Correct?
Re the buying up of Masks, I assumed it was people with contacts in China, buying up masks in western countries and shipping them out to China, just as occurred and still occurs with Baby Milk formula due to melamine laced Baby formula in China. Chinese nationals were buying out whole stores worth of baby formula in Australia, to sell at a profit to contacts in China. This created a shortage for the local market.
What would be your take on the reported case in Thailand Rajavithi Hospital that a patient was cured from the infection after administration of “a cocktail of Lopinavir and Ritonavir, which are used to treat HIV/Aids, and Oseltamivir, which is used to treat influenzas A and B”?
My take is that it's an anecdotal case from which we can literally draw no conclusions. We need a legit clinical trial to know whether or not those meds or others are effective (there's one already ongoing in Wuhan).
Thank you for sharing. It is really intriguing what is the virus actual transmission way. Hope that the death toll will not surpass a huge number of people. PS: this video reminds of my epidemiology and biostatistics course (like using the knowledge in practice ), sorry, maybe because I've just finished it:)
I think this channel primarily directed to health care professionals and some epidemiological and statistical terminology was presented because simply it's an epidemic now and moreover they were explained well for lay people.
@@khA-pj8di Yeah, I completely agree with you: I would like to say that it would have been perfect if our teaching staff had explained cases in such a way, as many med students in my course just looked puzzled during epidem lessons.
Since mucous membranes are vectors, has there been any evidence of sexual transmission during the incubation ( asymptomatic) progression of the disease?
Is Vitamin C still be a good supplement for viral infection prevention, such as common cold with no benefit for CIVID-19, or it is not at all be good for viral infection?
Interesting. Thank you for the report. I was wondering if you could help me understand how the USA in 2018-2019 had 42.9 million flu cases with 61, 200 deaths out of about 337 million population with 37% of adults getting the flu vaccine and China with over a billion people and a 2% flu vaccine rate had only 608,511 flu cases and 143 deaths?
Seasonal flu vaccination rates in China are a bit outside my expertise, but the numbers you have are not correct. This article in the Lancet from 2018 analyzed worldwide death rates due to seasonal influenza, and found that the EMR (excess mortality rate - or increased mortality rate over baseline due to a specific disease) for seasonal influenza in China was about twice that in the US. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29248255
Thanks for the video! It was very informative! I have a question regarding traveling specifically by airplane IN the U.S.: While I thought about wearing a 😷 mask I thought those around me might think that I’M sick and this would put ME in the lime light and possibly get me pulled out of line by TSA for questioning so maybe not such a good idea. But what about on the plane itself? And if a mask is overkill right now in the U.S. what about wearing a scarf over your nose & mouth? Maybe not in the TSA line (unless someone is coughing &/or 🤧 sneezing!) but while flying?
Trust me. People ARE watching from China. I'm one of them. Thanks for the information.
Lot's of people. Most westerners in China are probably going to come across your channel @Strong Medicine . Additional advice based on that fact is welcome.
@Gemma Saint They've ALWAYS cracked down on VPN's. Especially on holidays! Nothing new.
Good luck over there.
How many are dead? Pls reply
Me too.
I live in China (Guangzhou) and all pharmacies are out of masks and gloves...if you want to buy online they are really expensive and you cannot make sure if they are real. Supermarkets run out of food and other supplies in just 2 to 3 hours and they have to close them so they can refill them for the next time. Transportation such subway, bus and even taxis are not running. To enter the city from other outside districts are guarded by the police controls, the misinformation here is huge with lots of online debates oof what to do, including "specialists" in the field , news from different channels differ from each other. It's chaos.... however, it seems it is not all lost. More and more people (young people especially ) are much more aware of this situation and they are very active online spreading information about taking precautions but still not enough.
I'm very sorry to hear you are stuck in the middle of this chaos, it's difficult enough just watching all the new information pour in each day so I can't imagine how much harder it is being right in the middle of everything. It is good to hear that information is being spread around though, that alone can help people be more prepared and take the necessary precautions to try and protect themselves and those around them. Good luck during this difficult time and stay safe!.
Dont feel alone..i live in usa...so are ours...
There.are.videos coming from china of people going thru the medical waste to get masks to resell...tho they claimed to use themselves when confronted..BEWARE
@@matthewgoff9757 Thanks mate! I'm from Spain and I have been living here for the past 15 years. My family is Chinese, most of my friends are Chinese too, so besides my research about the virus, I also know some information from family and friends. My gov. still saying that spaniards living outside of the epicenter (Hubei-Wuhan) area are safe and that at this point there is not need to panic. Consulates are closed until Feb. 9 but the Embassy is always open, of course the hot-line emergency number is always there for anything. We get constant updates from our Consulates, which it's a great thing, keep the moral up. Of course groups on the Wechat app help a lot, encouraging people to fight this things and take precautions. In the district I live so far has been reported 1 case and the person is totally isolated. The Guangdong gov. is pretty good, taking so much caution with everything. I know people online and YT are complaining about China this and that. The only thing I can say from my side and from the area I'm stuck is that everything is being taking care of. Yes, I said before the problem with Pharmacies, but that is expected. Imagine this happening in the US or Europe, it's just human nature, even though people said "stay calm", ah...no,no... people really will panic anyways (generally speaking)
@@sislertx Hi Sislertx, yeah, there actually many videos from Chinese and foreign people circulating online. Some truly heartbreaking, some really encouraging. Probably (imo) the ones that look like very scary are the ones coming from the epicenter, I assume. Also yes, as I said before, people tend to rush out and get anything they can....heck! 2 ays ago (true story) I went to the nearest supermarket and because there are not gloves in any pharmacy, I saw a guy buying like almost the full stand of the gloves to wash the dishes...like idk 50 or more....when I saw it, I got lucky and I got 2!!...I have to actually say that you can buy things online and they will deliver them to your location (not home) but you cannot buy a lot if online, online shopping is rationed at this point, so if you really need a lot of supplies, just take the risk (as I did) and go quickly early morning when the supermarket is open ( 9am) and get all you need
Risk is low you say? Some other doc said that droplet infection can be caused from a guy sneezing 2/3 meters behind you, the airborne droplet ending up in your eyes/mouth and you're infected.
Its also necessary to wear masks to not accidently touch your face with your infected hands. Or to infect other people with your sneezes.
It has a similar infectious ability as influenza.
droplet infection can be caused from a guy sneezing 2/3 meters behind you? That guy should be a sniper...
@@JJ-bt7nx the ninja sneezer
@Mr MEMé ye
These comments are moderated. Questions and respectful dialogue are absolutely welcome. Spam, conspiracy theories, and insults are not.
UPDATE #2 (2/23): For viewers just discovering this video, please keep in mind that info on the coronavirus (now COVID-19) epidemic/pandemic is changing daily, and this was recorded 3 weeks ago. While the info video remains accurate (aside from the case cluster in Germany discussed in update #1), the general sense from the international medical community, including the WHO and CDC, is that containment of the virus within China has likely failed. It is looking increasingly probable that COVID-19 will become a global pandemic with community-based transmission in Western nations. How significant this will become for us in the United States remains completely unknown - some pandemics have no overt impact on the day-to-day life of most people - but COVID-19 looks to be the most notable international public health threat in decades.
UPDATE #1 (~2/6): The paper that discussed the case cluster in Germany, which is being used as evidence that asymptomatic transmission is occurring (including discussion in this video) was flawed! The authors never spoke directly with the Chinese woman, who later reported that she was experiencing symptoms while in Germany. While I appreciate the urge to release new data ASAP with an ongoing outbreak, this feels a little irresponsible on the part of the authors, and warrants retraction from the NEJM. Correction discussed here: www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong
Also, I misspeak @17:30. The Ebola epidemic in West Africa that marked the beginning of a concerted effort at creating an Ebola vaccine was in 2014, not 2004.
Why no conspiracy theories? Seems like it could be potentially healthy, productive and entertaining to discuss theories surrounding the origins of the virus! ☣☣
@@eJimenezz Entertaining? Yes, absolutely! Productive? Probably not.
@@eJimenezz there are plently of those.
Way before the Coronavirus, people in China and Hong Kong are taught to wear face masks in public areas - MTRs, buses, streets, malls...etc
They believe wearing face masks is the ONLY and crucial way to ‘prevent’ themselves from getting sick. Yet, many got Shingles, flu/cold etc. The Coronavirus outbreak has really cause PANIC in Hong Kong where many HKers are emptying the shelves at grocery stores, stock pile face masks; some even selling ‘recycled/used’ disposable face masks.
E Logan Face masks don’t make much of a difference. It’s more important to maintain decent hygiene than anything else.
Confirmation by cdc asymptomatic transmission....
Also can be transmitted through eyes. As well
Everyone agrees at this point that asymptomatic transmission is occurring. What's not known (and which is a huge question) is how often it's happening. There are lots of unsourced anecdotal stories about it floating around, but only one published case report (the one referenced in the video). Getting this figured out is definitely one of the CDC and WHO's priorities right now.
Don't look at sick people
I figure it's not purely asymptomatic but maybe pre-fever transmission. Someone incubating the virus can still cough and sneeze and think it's due to dust, odors, allergies, or a dry throat from medications, etc.. they may not know it's specifically A CORONAVIRUS sneeze or cough. They might just feel maybe 15% crappier or more tired than usual, and not realize it's viral load growing in them before their immune system reacts.
@Gareth De Bruyn I assume it's true that the person recovered, but there is absolutely no way to tell if it was because of the medications when the patient was treated outside of a well-designed clinical trial. There is one such trial of HIV meds going on in Wuhan right now, but it will take months until there is enough data before it's known whether or not it helps.
Through eyes means transmitting the virus via rubbing your eyelids with your hands.
Although transmitting virus by just looking is pretty funny.
Thank you so much for sharing! Hope the 2 newly build hospitals could help. My parents are still lockdown. Hope all goes well soon.
I hope your parents stay safe and healthy! I wish I was optimistic about the new hospitals, but I agree that it seems implausible that a well supplied, 21st century hospital could be built so quickly. Hopefully, the local Chinese public health authorities are successful at directing the sickest patients to the established hospitals, and using these "pop up hospitals" for patients whose illness is relatively minor and who basically need oxygen and close monitoring.
I hope your parents stay well
@TheGamingMelon ICU for server cases, beds for worse than mild cases.
i Hope your family is well.
Keep strong.
What concerns me are the bars on windows
The scariness of this spreading is the fact that incubation period is so long in comparison to other viruses. People are outbreak monkeys and don’t even know. I think this is a lot more serious then what’s being portrayed.
It's not spreading through the western world due to non east Asians having low ace2 receptors. Cases outside of Asia are from people travelling out of China
@@JTraceo The Ace-2 thing is from a tiny, 8 person study. The far more likely reason is the 50% of Chinese men being smokers, and only 1% of Chinese women.
The problem with any disease starting in China is that their government is notorious for downplaying situations like this. So the numbers we have could differ greatly from reality.. especially the deaths part. China reports the final cause of death. So if someone dies from coronavirus, but the test wasn't confirm, it isn't counted. There is a debate whether they are listing pneumonia or coronavirus for people dying.......thus making the death count look much lower.. we really cannot know for sure until we have larger numbers outside of China. Either way, upping your immune system and taking precautions can't hurt! Better to be safe than sorry.
Thank you for this report!
However, the “RO” was reported at over 4..?
Cynthia Baker 2.69 people infected per patient, that’s scary, the flu is least then 1.00
Seasonal flu has an R0 of 1.3. A disease with an R0 of 0.01 would almost never be transmitted between people (i.e. for every 100 people who contract it, only 1 of them passes it to another person).
And if its 4.1 then that means the 11 ppl infected In the U.S. has spread to 4 ppl,they spread it to 4 and so on.#outbreak
17k confirmed cases today, 11 in the US now
fake numbers CCP is hiding the real numbers of patients and dead people
I think travel restrictions were put in far to late.
Hope for the best but prepare for worst. Odds look bad at this point. Peak Prosperity and Dr John Campbell also keepping us up to date on this. Stay safe and well
@@1chickenpig Dr John Campbell looked really worried in his last video update.
This is what scares me.
@@kostaftp I thought he seemed pretty calm
Dr John Campbell did a news interview last night and he does seem concerned. I forget the station but if you search his name I'm sure it'll come up.
The first cases didn’t have anything to do with the market.. so where did it come from? 🤔
They weren't specifically from the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, but it still may have originated from unsanitary conditions at a different wet market.
Or the person/people who supplied them to the wet markets.
This is a man made virus and a cover up that some government is keeping secretly
Authorities like genetic researchers have discovered that it was biologically engineered probably in the Level 4 Bio Lab 20 miles north of Wuhan.
@@StrongMed South China University of Technology says it possibly came from the Wuhan biolab, which is only 300 meters away from the Wuhan wet market.
"We briefly examined the histories of the laboratories and proposed that the coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory."
Why do i have to put sound on maximum to hear anything in this video? Talk louder mr. Doctor
99.98% Isopropyl alcohol in a spray bottle - regularly spray door handles at home and at work - your friends and collegues will laugh at first but will thank you soon enough.
That will get the job done.
5 min wet contact with alcohol 60% or greater for true disinfectant.
14:06 Great quick explanation of how easy it is to over or underestimate the fatality rate. Is there early data from the SARS and MERS epidemics that indicates how the initial figures miss the final numbers?
That's an awesome question - I wish I knew!
Information is the enemy of sensationalism and that is why this ideo is so important.
Exactly! Couldn't agree more! The people who are hating on this video are people who want sensationalism and fear-mongering!
How do we clean surfaces?
Let's meet "28 days later"
Well done finally someone that's giving real facts and not scare mongering like 99% of others on TH-cam.
And when i run across them i report them.as.dangerous...especially the ones who claim they have cures that actually will harm people...and foolish people will believe them and try it..
Does anyone know how long the filters last for ?
I ordered reusable/ washable face masks with the little vent thing and they have disposable filter - but they don't come with many, and are near impossible to source at the moment
Hello I’m a new subscriber and a retired RN. Another doctor early on was saying the active virus could be found in fecal samples. For those people that are contagious but still milling about, would those people in a public bathroom after flush ing cause a fine mist of virus into the air?
Will I be safe inside my house or will the air outside coming in endanger me? I live in a neighbor hood where houses are about 200 ft apart from eachother.
Yes folks chill with the N95 masks I need them for work .
I feel bad now that I got not 1but 2 packs of 20... didnt cross my mind that there are others who need them all year around.
Yeah if I didn't already have a respirator I would likely have to grind rust off underneath my car without a mask this week.
Ronald Blackburn I need a few to get food
I want to buy N 95, but all the stores sold out.
@@judypeng4748 Do you have harbor freight around you? I went 5 days ago and they were overstocked, had hundreds there.
Excellent video. The distorted data China is obvious a huge problem. You seem to cover the actual number of infected. However it’s quite apparent that the death rate is hugely under reported. Is there anyway to get a better handle on this issue?
Dr. Strong: Thank you for your recent videos on 2019-nCoV. While I realize that information on the topic is evolving rapidly, I consider your posts to be accurate with the technical details well-explained. Hopefully, you will find time to continue posting these educational updates - especially if the outbreak becomes a true pandemic as so many media sources are indicating.
Doc， the main problem with people obsessed with eating wild life in China is, a lot of them eat it like sashimi. Some eat them live....
It's so hard to imagine doing that.
conclusion: Stay calm, don't panic!
Conclusion: Be cautious and practice good and regular hygiene practices.
Stay calm and stock up on food.
🛑You will need to disinfect your phone and your wallet too. No point in washing hands and then touching the contaminated surface again.🛑
This was a lot more official that made me feel lesser anxious. Thanks. Although the death rate is seeming to increase exponentially. I do get it that it is because of the long incubation period that we are seeing deaths now but I do think that the mortality rate is rather high. I would like to hear thoughts on this from others too thanks.
You can also counter this by saying many more people are likely infected than thought. This actually would suggest the death rate is far lower, given that the severity of illness is rather varied, most people are likely surviving this virus without knowing theh had that specific virus.
Dude isn't even an epidemiologist. You can get much better information from experts that say coronavirus is a much bigger deal than this guy is letting on.
@@ModernProspector factually speaking, many professionals say either this or that, the reason being that we simply don't know enough about it yet.
@@ModernProspector If there is an epidemiologist out there with expertise in disease outbreaks who is claiming this is a catastrophe, feel free to post a link to them. All of the epidemiologists I've seen and read are telling people to stay chill (but vigilant)
Itachikage _ take the time to do useful action. Worry is not a useful action. 🛑You will need to disinfect your phone and your wallet too. No point in washing hands and then touching the contaminated surface again.🛑
Strong Medicine one point of view is to isolate the numbers of hubei Provence from the rest of China and the world. Hubei including Wuhan is currently much more chaotic due to the ill preparation and initial phase over up. The fatality rate is much higher mainly due to lack of icu support. If you only look at cases outside of hubei over the last few days you can see the number is already flatting out. Hope it is the case that in well prepared areas the virus is somewhat under control now. Let's be patient for another few days.
I meant to say "Initial phase cover up"
Fantastic video, thanks for taking the time to make it.
Thank you! This is by far the best video I've found on the coronavirus up to this point. Thank you so much! I'm sharing on all my social media.
I am a retired immunopathologist & physician researcher who worked in research lab with deadly viruses. Your video is outstanding. I would only add that there appears to be a huge under-estimation of number of mild cases with only slight cough that is under radar especially in children as 99%+ of under 15 yr olds have not presented as ill & surveillance starting to show their illnesses so mild they were not noticed. So asymptomatic may actually have mild cough & be infected. In epidemic areas should use mask if near others & have even mild cough.
Agreed! Thanks for watching!
Maybe after this is over, China will see that their view on eating anything that breaths is dangerous and the way in which they do it is of a very low standard.
The whole of China has substandard of living in comparison to the west, over population at its best.
Is it possible to be infectious after recovering from infection?
We don't know yet. So yes, from a logic standpoint, I suppose that means it's possible?
I read somewhere that even if you recovered you coukd still infect other people for next 3 days
Great information! I see a lot of people in the comments criticizing because they want fear-mongering, and criticism of China's people or their government... but this information is level-headed, objective and properly measured, and that is what we really need.
Thank you!
Hey Eric, China just confirmed(but i dont really believe it), person to person spread can be through aerosol, is it mean airborne? i understand the difference between airborne and droplets, but how about airborne and aerosol? i googled it, but i still dont understand
Thank you. This is a very good information, easy to understand for a commoner.
How can the R0 be lower than sars? It feels like I’m getting pissed and told that it’s raining.
Why would it need to be higher than SARS?
@@StrongMed Because when you plot the number of reported cases (or logarithm of the number of cases) versus time from the start of the outbreak, the rate of increase is significantly higher so far with the novel 2019 coronavirus than it was with SARS.
@@StrongMed Both SARS and MERS caused more than 10,000 cumulative cases in the past TWO DECADES, but this new virus has resulted in tens of thousands of cases in TWO MONTHS. And that's IF you BELIEVE the Chinese government about the 30k "confirmed" cases they say there exists. I'd sure say the R0 is a lot higher.
Do we know the recovery rate of those infected? thx.
This lovely video has earned you a subscription. Looking forward to more such level-headed 2019-nCOV discussions.
This is one of the most helpful videos I've seen on YT. Thank you, will share.
Isn't it true that the current calculations for the R-0 seem to lie around 4.08? I've heard and seen multiple references to a scientific paper that stated that number.
But how many of them have actually read that "scientific paper". It's here: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952v1.full.pdf It's an 800 word (i.e. short) preprint (i.e. not published, not peer reviewed) summary of a calculation that arrived at an R0 of 4.08. However, it contains little data, not a thorough description of their model, and no graphs, charts, or figures. I'm not saying it's definitely wrong, but rather it's impossible to evaluate it.
I'm having a hard time understanding two parts of your presentation that seem contradictory. At about 17:50 you state that this new coronavirus is already as bad as the SARS virus was in 2002. You go on to say your gut tells you it will be "significantly worse than SARS". But your chart at 8:13 clearly shows SARS to be both more deadly and more infectious than 2019-nCoV. Does the little pink box need to be moved significantly upwards and to the right because the early estimates are obviously very, very wrong? Or, is there a tertiary axis (or even more) needed to factor in more than just R-naught and death rate? I'm trying to understand this thing where the data on the one hand and the official reassuring claims seem very contradictory. SARS is over. In its six month lifespan it infected 8097 and killed 774. 2019-nCoV has already infected 17, 489 (more than twice that of SARS already) and, at 362 deaths, is already almost half way to the SARS final death toll. And we have only just begun. The first reported case was 12/31/2019 (although there were already infected people before this). Given that as a starting point we are only 34 days into this. Last Monday the death toll stood at 81. In the six days since the numbers (starting on Tuesday morning and going to this morning are as follows): 106, 132, 170, 213, 255, 309 and 362. The death toll has risen every day at a 17-30% rate. In three days, from Monday to Thursday, the death toll more than doubled (81 to 170). Four days later it more than doubled again (170-362). At this rate, with no vaccines and an exponential mortality dynamic, this will be catastrophic in days, not to mention weeks...no matter how prepared the WHO and others supposedly were.
That's a great question. R0 and case fatality rates are only 2 of many factors that determine the severity of an outbreak. There really needs to be more like a dozen axes to give the whole story.
@@StrongMed Thanks for getting back with me. Are you planning to do additional videos? If so, you might want to go more in depth on some of the "this doesn't make sense" dynamics that would help others like me who can clearly see that the reported data (deaths, recoveries, rate of infections) coming from China's ("downplaying") communist regime, no less, and the "assumptions" (R0 is 2.1, mortality rate [MR] is 2.0) is not lining up with reality. I cannot fathom 10 additional axes that would enable the this disease to be as rampant (infectious and deadly) as it is. From additional reading I have been doing about R0 it appears that the R0 number is very slippery and has less to do with the virus itself than it does the population in which it is observed (but I am still have a hard time wrapping my head around how R0 really works and how to use it properly in cases like these). I personally think the R0 is more like 3.1 or even higher...it would sure fit the reported data better. As for the MR (mortality rate) the only scientific data that I know of is from the study of 41 patients in Wuhan (reported in the Lancet: www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext ). While 41 is obviously a very small population sample, it is all we have. The results? 15% of the 41 have died. If the MR is actually 15% (or even half that), then the reported data starts to make sense. Alas, I have spoken too long. I DO NOT WANT YOU TO RESPOND BACK TO ME ON ANY OF THIS. Except perhaps to say "Yes, David I will do a follow up video." To be a little light-hearted with this let me share something with you. It is VRR, short for viewer return rate. Given a (current) view total of 57,819 and a projected VRR of 83.72% any future video would reach 48,406 people. I'd suggest a return to the graph at 8:13 and the dynamics that seem to suggest that the "early estimates" might need to be challenged. I don't want to scare folks, but I don't want us to treat this like it is no big deal, either.
I really appreciate you posting these, and it's just unfortunate that you have less views than the many sensational and misguided videos about secret crematoriums and airborne terror. Keep up the good work.
Are you suggesting that they don't have crematoriums? If they have one or a number its NOT secret. The fact is, their incinerators and crematoriums are going to be working overtime from all the infectious hazardous material being generated. I can confidently predict that the relatives of the deceased are NOT going to get the ashes handed back to them in a nice container or if they do, the ashes will be mixed with hundreds of others. Once quarantine is over with for Wuhan and the immediate area, they still aren't going back to work. Maybe they will have one mass funeral. I have no idea what the Chinese people are willing to accept regarding this ritual, that is, are they just going to do whatever government tells them or is the tradition too deeply rooted for any change.
Sidenote: Their culture versus ours. They are voluntarily willing to cooperate with all the quarantine requirements. In the US would we do the same? I think not.
Guy Daley We’re cooperating more than the Chinese are. There are videos of Chinese people laughing about escaping quarantine, while those in the US willingly agree to 14 day quarantines.
thanks well done.
Q. how long does it take to recover ?
Considering some infections appear to be asymptomatic while others are fatal, it would seem like there's the full range of recovery times. The outbreak is too new to estimate an average time to recovery for patients who become symptomatic.
Generally curious, what are the confirmed symptoms so far? I've been seeing a few videos popping up of people having fairly violent seizures on the ground in China, and some people are mentioning its due to severe fevers caused by the virus. I'm personally prepared for support care in my home but only against flu symptoms and light pneumonia symptoms if such a phrase exists for pneumonia.
Most common symptoms are cough, fever, and shortness of breath. Seizures have not been widely reported in the medical literature, and seizures are not usually caused by fevers outside of childhood.
@@StrongMed gotcha, I wanted to figure out what would be a potential cause or link between symptoms and the seizures I mentioned, but I'm still skeptical of the information the media and third parties are giving us. As long as the majority of this new virus can be self-cared with sufficient resources and attention that will be less stress on my mind.
I have so much trouble in believing this 14 day incubation period.
14 days would certainly be on the long side for both respiratory viruses in general, and also for coronaviruses more specifically (according to the WHO, the upper limit of SARS was 10). There's a preprint (study released prior to publication for early feedback from scientific community) which looked at 88 confirmed cases, and found an incubation period ranging from 2 to 11 days, with an average of 6 (www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018986v2.full.pdf+html). My guess is that officials have chosen 14 days for mandatory isolation/quarantine of travelers out of an abundance of caution; they are seeing a missed case in a returning traveler as a "never event", given the enormous public health consequences.
What is the best way to clean, kill the virus on solid surfaces, such as door knobs, countertops etc.
Thanks for the video!
Bleach kills most things.
You referenced the Lancet article forecasting the epidemic but failed to pay attention to the most shocking part about it. On figure 4, for the month of April, the authors estimated a daily incidence rate of 20-30 per 1000 population for the 6 most affected cities. Cities that have a total population of around 110 million. This means, in absolute terms: approximately 2 to 3 million NEW infections every single day when the outbreak peaks.
This is already orders of magnitude worse than SARS...
As stated by the authors, those numbers only hold if transmisability remains constant, which we already know it hasn't. Entire cities are virtually shut down, and travel within Hubei providence (the epicenter) is extremely reduced, which will have very dramatic impact on the daily incident rate in a month or two.
I have a question that I have put on numerous platforms no one knows how to answer it's about Coronavirus. Given what we know about this virus can a person contract it recover and recontract it? The virus is changing and evolving every time, so it's different daily. Our bodies when fighting infections usually become resistant to the initial virus but because Coronavirus is mutating is it possible to recontract it?
As per the media, some Chinese physicians and/or scientists are suggesting this *might* be the case, but we don't know yet. It wouldn't be totally unheard of, but it would be unusual.
Was the kidney failure (AKI) associated with this infection interpreted as a part of multiorgan failure, dehydration,.. or a direct infection of the kidneys? Also, I want to know the criteria (if there's any) by which a person that have an influenza-like illness get a PCR for 2019-nCoV ? [ I mean is it just if they came with ARDS etc?!] Thanks.
I haven't seen any individual case reports detailed enough to say anything specific about multiorgan failure that might be happening with the most severe cases - though I suspect most deaths are due to ARDS-related hypoxemic respiratory failure.
Regarding the criteria to test a symptomatic individual for 2019-nCoV, it's going to vary quite a bit across counties. In the US, each ER/hospital has a general policy by this point as to who warrants calling public health authorities to check if they should be tested. Luckily, I personally haven't seen someone yet whose illness and contact history rose to the level of even a remote suspicion.
Perindopril is ace 2 blocker? I use this drug my hypertonia and i so confused now. If it is with my logic this drug improves my chances against this virus becase this block ace 2 receptors? Or this drug just increase the ace 2 receptors
? Sorry my english im from europe. Pls answer me thx.
There has been a lot of speculation about the effects of ACE inhibitors (ACEI) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) on both the risk of catching COVID19, as well as on response to treatment. Unfortunately, we don't yet know the answer to either of those questions.
@@StrongMed Thank you
I work with the public in the United States, does anyone know if employers have to allow employees the ability to choose to wear a face mask while at work ? Especially if the employee has underlying other medical issues.
You mentioned vitamin C. Obviously it won't act as a shield to stop the virus, but can taking it and other vitamins as a preventative measure boost the immune system to reduce the risk of having a serious case of the virus and/or reduce the time one is ill?
No. Vitamin C does not "boost the immune system" despite many frequent claims to the contrary by laypersons, naturopaths, and in particular, companies selling Vitamin C products. Unlike some "natural" products, taking vitamin C in conventional doses doesn't carry any risk of harm, but it will provide false reassurance that one is protected against coronavirus to some degree. Much better to wash hands frequently and keep your distance from people who look sick!
"Contrary to belief, it was not contracted from eating bats due to cooking negating the virus".....have you *SEEN ALL THE VIDEOS OF WUHAN MARKET WHERE PEOPLE EAT THE ANIMALS LIVE AND RAW?!*
I read the videos that circulate were actually from Palau not China. Who knows at this point.
It’s not about the consumption of the animal, the primary reason is about the unsanitary environments that cause the initial infection. Given the proximity and those poor environmental standards a crossover event has an increased likelihood.
Disgusting
@@dpaps1868 Agreed!
If it's not airborne transmission, how are asymptomatic people spreading it, if they are not coughing? To end up on fomites wouldn't there need to be coughing or would normal respiration do it?
Rubbing their nose, sharing glasses/cups, eating with their fingers and then touching a door knob, sharing utensils... behaviors like that.
@@StrongMed thanks
when a doctor says hopefully , you know shit is about to get ugly
Once again, thank you very much for your valuable and updated information!
Do heat or warmer climate will reduce the spreading problem ?
Someone told me that heat stops it spreading. The virus likes cold and low humidity. Do own research as this is just what someone told me.
@@MS45636 its not so much the heat and what a virus "likes"...its people remain inside in close quarters quarters.....
Dr. Strong, Thank you very much for this very informative video. As you know, there have been four cases in Bay Area (considering San Benito County not too far away from San Jose). I notice that all of them are not hospitalized. Is this the better approach than keeping them in hospitals until they are recovered?
Yes, it's the correct approach. The worst place to put a person infected with coronavirus is in a hospital surrounded by elderly and immunocompromised patients, and where hospital staff will be continuous coming and going (personal protective equipment notwithstanding). Nosocomial (hospital-based) transmission was a serious problem during SARS and during several prior MERS outbreaks. Confirmed cases should only be hospitalized if their own medical condition warrants it (i.e. if the coronavirus patient needs oxygen therapy or mechanical ventilation). Thanks for pointing out the San Benito cases - I hadn't heard about them yet! It's hard to stay fully up to date when there is so much changing information.
@@StrongMed Aren't isolation wards in hospitals meant to be at a lower pressure than the atmospheric to prevent transmission to other immunocompromised patients in the hospital? How will you ensure that a person under self-quarantine at home is not inadvertently infecting his own family and then his family ends up going to the market and infecting 3 other people because they are incubating without any symptoms (like that case in Germany)?
One more question, given the fact that all coronaviruses are from the same family, does that not mean that they have a similar size and mass? If so, then given the fact that H1N1 spreads through the airborne route (I mean aerosol, not droplets), does that not imply that 2019-nCoV will also spread through airborne route? I remember reading that 2019-nCoV is 400-900 nm in size and can be suspended in aerosol droplets as small as 3 micrometer in size. This is much smaller than the 5 micron limit which means that these droplets can travel straight into the alveoli. This is also consistent with the observation that 2019-nCoV has a preference for the deeper parts of our respiratory system (cough much more common than rhinitis as a symptom).
Thanks in advance :)
@@StrongMed Thanks for the reply. So can this be considered as a somewhat suboptimal solution due to the lack of specialized medical facilities dealing with such disease in the area? www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/San-Benito-coronavirus-patients-worsen-overnight-15026758.php
@@valleynomad Hospitals like UCSF and Stanford have appropriate rooms and isolation suites that can handle a relatively modest number of cases like this, and the treating clinicians have been sufficiently trained on procedures. You can also bet that the hospital admins, infection control, and the public health department are all watching the situation extremely closely. So I'm confident that it's safe for everyone. But for a patient not sick enough to otherwise warrant hospitalization, it's still much preferable to keep them isolated at home (provided that they are reliable enough to maintain that isolation and aren't tempted to run out for a quick trip to the store...)
11:54 - great question 😅😅😅😅😅 So I won’t freak out about the in bound package. 📦
I appreciated how thorough your presentation was in regards to general understanding of infectious diseases, so I subscribed. However...(you felt that coming didn't you?)...telling people not to panic mainly for reasons assumption being by viewer that this advice is coming by way of medical professional assessment, the advice is then obliterated by expression of fact medical professionals themselves are stealing face-masks.
As this only gives rise to understanding also expressed as towards *uncertainty* of exact carriage, onset and incubation (not to mention death rate), the mention of these uncertainties should then be enhanced by the example of the German patient. Was this virus introduced purposefully by an influence?
I commend your advice for viewers not to fall for advertised ruse cures or prevention products to the virus relevant, but with vitamin C example being specifically mentioned, remember that an ounce of prevention through boosting the immune system is worth a pound of cure for which there is not now one. I believe the immune system of the Chinese people has been greatly hampered by air, et al. pollutants and this leaves them more vulnerable on many levels of understanding in this matter.. histamine levels and breathing...lying on the gut as for better breathing...many factors of finding best results are being interspersed and coming from various medical trials and records in finding of best treatment in these matters, not just one...all connected with greater knowledge and with better improvement for optimal health and staving off death with this virus.
All above being mentioned, it is my assessment that most everything delivered as advice should be considered snake oil...particularly since *if there is* outside influence placing this virus in the system with hopes of infecting as many possible, the best advice for such implementation would be not to panic.
As the doctor mentioned in his video that time could and will quickly change advice and facts as we now know them regarding this infection which was given herein, I do not see my assessment of what was expressed as possibly changed with new comment, or to be better understood by pointing out any new facts, both presently and in the future..
I appreciate the interspersed praise. However, I didn't say that medical professionals were stealing face masks. I said (I think) hospital employees. And it would be more accurate to say that distribution of N95 masks are being more tightly regulated because of the belief that they are being stolen from hospitals; I don't think anyone has actually been caught per se. They could be patient visitors for all we know.
Also, Vitamin C does not "boost the immune system". That's just a very successful marketing campaign.
@@StrongMed
I was not intending to argue facts but one thing is for certain that many people make public claim on a variety of issues that lead to legal action.
I hope this helps.
@@StrongMed *Quantum Computers* ....we were looking for a PURPOSE for them, other than to play Minecraft quite efficiently!
*THIS IS IT!* - Give this 'Problem', [The genetic code of China shared the new virus, also know as *"2019-nCoV"* ]
to a Quantum Computer, a problem that is taking lives FAST & is need of a solution in Days, not mths or yrs!
Someone pls get in touch with GOOGLE & Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai to get himself & his supernerd HEROS along
with their "Quantum SUPREMACY" &have them find a Solution to CORONA VIRUS To Save us all in a few hrs or less.
Maybe it will find that the solution is a natural food such as zucchini, or a unique drug or a combo of both.
NB: - If you know any other 'Brains' with access to a Quantum Computer, pls see if you can colab with them & find a Solution to this problem, this endemic, Corona Virus
Can I ask a question, it seams silly but I am concerned, I've ordered some sun glasses on the internet that comes from China, the parcel is over 2 weeks later, I understand it may be because of the virus, and it may be in courenteen. My question is am I likely to catch it when it arrives at my house. Or am I being silly?
Would you please give a comment on the reports of the virus being man made mixed with HIV ! , would you also please use some mathematical way of predicting fatalities through the next 4 months based only on the info and rates we have now , without maybes at all , please , as I see I can trust the answers you are going to give . Thank you for your efforts, really appreciated 🙏
The rumor that the coronavirus was bioengineered using sequences from HIV has been thoroughly debunked by the scientific community. Here's a relevant article posted yesterday to Forbes about it: www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/02/02/no-coronavirus-was-not-bioengineered-to-put-pieces-of-hiv-in-it/#3eb1355e56cb. And a Twitter thread doing the same by a virologist: twitter.com/trvrb/status/1223666856923291648
Regarding predictions of cases and deaths 4 months out from now, unfortunately it's impossible. It's not just a matter of having enough of the current data (which we don't), but it also depends upon the future response of the international medical community (e.g. WHO), affected nations' public health services (e.g. CDC in the US), and the actions of individual people. There's no way to know when a city will be quarantined or have a quarantine lifted, whether individuals with suspected cases will adhere to isolation protocols, whether any antiviral meds currently in clinical trials will be successful, or how long until a vaccine is ready.
Strong Medicine thank you
SO INDIA DOCTORS LIED....and i believe they published IT in a journal...CANT REMEMBER now which one.
Sislertx not necessarily, the “experts” just took their info and molded it differently than what was actually trying to be said.
My *6* year old little sister has been coughing non stop and me *13* years old have been having random aches on my bones
Im so worried
Help
I'm really sorry, but I can't offer medical advice intended for a specific person. I strongly recommend speaking with your parent about your concerns. But unless you are in China or have been in direct close contact with someone who has been to China in the past 5-6 weeks, it is *extremely* unlikely that either you or your sister have caught this new coronavirus.
In terms of personal safety concerns; 1) safe distance between individuals for droplets to not be a problem? 2) surface disinfection, will a 10% bleach solution kill the virus or is there another thing recommended?
I have rheumatoid arthritis and copd and I’m taking methotrexate. I get hospitalised at least once a year with pneumonia and sepsis and sometimes that stems from a simple cold. I’m housebound so that’s a positive. Can’t find any masks at a decent price. I’m in UK and my daughter came home from school this weekend with flu symptoms, I’ve only just stopped antibiotics and steroids after a month fighting another flu bug. Not sure I can handle this one or coronavirus. Thanks for the information very good video on the subject. Praying the death rate doesn’t increase. My family and I suffered terribly with swine flu and my son was hospitalised and that was before I was sick and immune suppressed! Good luck world xx
Excellent presentation. Thank you.
Thank you so much sir for the information. All informations are evidence based and we'll presented.
Thank you for the concise, clearly explained information on this important topic. I decided to subscribe after you admitted that employees at medical facilities were stealing face masks. That kind of honesty is greatly appreciated in a sea of information where it's hard to trust unknown "experts". I'm a mom and gramma with kids living in several different situations who count on me to provide them the best information I can find across a wide range of serious topics. You just made my search for truthful information much easier and I am grateful for your knowledge and also all in the medical community who risk their lives for all of us. May our Creator bless you and keep you and yours safe and well!
Is dancing safe? I live in Sydney ,Austalia.
Do the safety dance.
Dear colleague, I was wondering how the patients with only gastrointestinal symptoms are doing clinically and if they have a better prognosis. Are all deaths related to respiratory complications like pneumonia/ARDS?
If we would infect healthy people with the virus orally, could we prevent the respiratory complications to occur? Sure, people would still be sick with diarrhoea but that seems much better manageable than the treatment of respiratory complications. Like a living vaccine, with all risks that come with it, probably not ethical.
This is really good. Subscribed
Is it possible that those who worked in the Huanan Animal market had a mild level of herd immunity against Bat viruses due to their proximity? That would explain that the second case to be reported had visited the Huanan market. Thereafter the cases regularly had contact with the market for a few days. Thereafter the spread is human to human.
Great video ! I put it to the "Coronavirus" -list and shall recommend to other people too.
Thanks Dr. Strong. Maybe in the next video you can add some information about the specific efforts being done by the CDC/WHO in managing this epidemic. Also some information on the process of self-quarantine and reporting of cases. Thanks again! Looking forward to your next one.
Nice video, subscribed. Optional, unsolicited feedback, offered respectfully: You might consider investing in a better quality mic, and manually focus that camera on your eyes. You're quite fuzzy. I would also reconsider the t-shirt. You're not here to tell us how to get rid of the pests in our gardens. But I'm old-fashioned that way.
It's not the mic, it's the recording space that unfortunately can't be better sound treated. And regarding the T-shirt, I wear professional clothing all day long - I recorded this at 4am and just needed to wear something comfortable for once.
Outstanding presentation-thank you!
Bats are served whole in bat soup in Wuhan. Leaves question on the amount of cooking in the meat.
According to Lancet report of first 99 cases - current death rate is 11% while 58% of patients are still being treated, so that death rate could potentially grow.
Wedding picture in the background, no wedding ring.. Not your house?
Don't wear a wedding ring - I wash/sanitize my hands 50+ times a day. I know other men docs who don't wear one for the same reason.
@@StrongMed that's super interesting, thanks for the reply! :)
The 'official' numbers definitely don't add up.. there has to be way more than they've said. Why keep it so quiet otherwise? What do they gain from that.. something is not right
China gains nothing at this point, which is why the official numbers being way too low likely represents the medical system becoming overwhelmed and unable to keep up with testing, rather than it being a deliberate act of underreporting. (This was not the case during December, in which reports from China suggested local officials were deliberately downplaying the outbreak)
So the first case was asymptomatic?
That's a great question. The first confirmed case began symptomatic on Dec 1, but it's certainly possible he/she had acquired the infection not directly from an animal, but rather from an asymptomatic carrier (who was never subsequently diagnosed). Unless that first index case reported some very dramatic animal exposure (e.g. bitten by a bat) in the days prior to symptom onset, we'll probably never know.
@@StrongMed Yes, let's say the first person is bitten or whatever by a bat on November 28. The 29th feels fine but meets a couple of people throughout the day, the 30th same thing and the the 1st of December he/she gets diagnosed... The people he/she interacted with on the 29th 30th got infected but the infected person at the time felt fine. That'd be an asymptomatic transmission?
@@imjusstchillin5776 Yes, it would be.
@@StrongMed that's interesting. Very fascinating
Hello sir....it would be awesome if you could make a video series on interpretation of abdominal x-rays ...just like you did with chest xrays
Will the pneumonia vaccine protect against novel coronavirus caused pneumonia?
The pneumonia vaccine only protects against one species of bacteria, streptococcus pneumoniae. Unfortunately, most bacterial superinfections of viral pneumonias are from other bacteria. So the bottom line is that it may protect a small amount, but no more than that.
If the numbers are low from China. (From intentional or from lack of testing supplies) would you say the ratio of infected/dead/recovered are correct at least?? Cause if not then all data is compromised. Long as the ratio is correct then we can amass data. It will just scale up. Correct?
Unfortunately, the ratio between infected/dead/recovered is very unlikely to be correct.
Re the buying up of Masks, I assumed it was people with contacts in China, buying up masks in western countries and shipping them out to China, just as occurred and still occurs with Baby Milk formula due to melamine laced Baby formula in China. Chinese nationals were buying out whole stores worth of baby formula in Australia, to sell at a profit to contacts in China. This created a shortage for the local market.
This sounds very plausible to me.
I appreciate your honesty.
Thanks! Apparently not everyone does... ;)
Thanks, Doc. Sensible and measured advice. Shared to my Facebook group. 👍🌻
It’s ok for the pharmaceutical companies to get drugs from isolated constituents from plants but if we use them it’s quackery. Thank you for that...
That feels like a non-sequitur. There are no known effective treatments for coronavirus, neither natural nor produced in factory.
What would be your take on the reported case in Thailand Rajavithi Hospital that a patient was cured from the infection after administration of “a cocktail of Lopinavir and Ritonavir, which are used to treat HIV/Aids, and Oseltamivir, which is used to treat influenzas A and B”?
My take is that it's an anecdotal case from which we can literally draw no conclusions. We need a legit clinical trial to know whether or not those meds or others are effective (there's one already ongoing in Wuhan).
Thank you for sharing. It is really intriguing what is the virus actual transmission way. Hope that the death toll will not surpass a huge number of people.
PS: this video reminds of my epidemiology and biostatistics course (like using the knowledge in practice ), sorry, maybe because I've just finished it:)
I think this channel primarily directed to health care professionals and some epidemiological and statistical terminology was presented because simply it's an epidemic now and moreover they were explained well for lay people.
@@khA-pj8di Yeah, I completely agree with you: I would like to say that it would have been perfect if our teaching staff had explained cases in such a way, as many med students in my course just looked puzzled during epidem lessons.
Thanks for posting. Very helpful information
Are home made cloth masks effective
Asymptomatic, other news did not say it was uncommon. In fact they said they were concerned about it because it was spreading in that state.
Since mucous membranes are vectors, has there been any evidence of sexual transmission during the incubation ( asymptomatic) progression of the disease?
Well SARS isn’t being talked about anymore,so...
Is Vitamin C still be a good supplement for viral infection prevention, such as common cold with no benefit for CIVID-19, or it is not at all be good for viral infection?
Interesting. Thank you for the report. I was wondering if you could help me understand how the USA in 2018-2019 had 42.9 million flu cases with 61, 200 deaths out of about 337 million population with 37% of adults getting the flu vaccine and China with over a billion people and a 2% flu vaccine rate had only 608,511 flu cases and 143 deaths?
Seasonal flu vaccination rates in China are a bit outside my expertise, but the numbers you have are not correct. This article in the Lancet from 2018 analyzed worldwide death rates due to seasonal influenza, and found that the EMR (excess mortality rate - or increased mortality rate over baseline due to a specific disease) for seasonal influenza in China was about twice that in the US. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29248255
Thanks for the video! It was very informative!
I have a question regarding traveling specifically by airplane IN the U.S.: While I thought about wearing a 😷 mask I thought those around me might think that I’M sick and this would put ME in the lime light and possibly get me pulled out of line by TSA for questioning so maybe not such a good idea. But what about on the plane itself? And if a mask is overkill right now in the U.S. what about wearing a scarf over your nose & mouth? Maybe not in the TSA line (unless someone is coughing &/or 🤧 sneezing!) but while flying?
Great information, thanks doctor.