WHAT IF I AM WRONG? | NIFTY-50 CRASH OR MELT-UP | INDRAANIL GUHA ENGLISH
NIFTY has already corrected by almost 12% (as of 24-Jan-2025) from its most recent all-time-high. And yet there is no way to predict with certainty if the correction we have seen so far is only a prelude to a larger market crash that lies ahead, or if this on-going bout of market volatility is now close to an end and will very likely pave the way for a melt-up very soon going forward from here. So what should an ideal portfolio look like at this stage? Being fully invested in stocks at this stage comes with the risk of a big loss should markets continue to correct steeply from here, and being overwhelmingly in cash poses the risk of missing out on the upside, should markets turn around and start to rally going forward. At the same time, getting the call right on which way equity markets are headed from here can create stupendous wealth. Getting the market call right (or wrong) at this stage can quite literally make or break an investment portfolio.
But is there a way to protect our investment portfolio from the risk of our market call going wrong? This is exactly what I discuss in this video. So do watch this video till the end, because without a mechanism to hedge against the risk of our market call going wrong, we are probably in a game of poker, rather than in the game of investing!
Also watch my recent 3-part series in which I have explained the key drivers of the on-going bout of volatility/correction in the NIFTY since Sept-24. Part 1 of the 3-part series is available at:
th-cam.com/video/sEImwCJTfUo/w-d-xo.html
Part 2 of the 3-part series is available at:
th-cam.com/video/i-dkBFFU6fQ/w-d-xo.html
Part 3 of the 3-part series is available at:
th-cam.com/video/JLQ6IEUfTho/w-d-xo.html
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Chapters:
00:00 Teaser
00:48 Introduction
02:12 Bullish outlook in the aftermath of start of rate cuts in Sept-24
04:50 But that's NOT how things have played out!
07:33 Key takeaways about my style of investing
08:46 I am NOT trying to be right all the time!
10:14 Market outlook with regards to impending US recession
10:40 %age of banks tightening lending standards
17:13 Introduction to AlphaSIP® - Defining the problem we are trying to solve for our clients
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