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Excellent insights, highly helpful. Much appreciated Mr.Indranil

SUPER ANALYSIS @IndraanilGuha SIR EAGERLY WAITING FOR PART 2, AND THANKS FOR GUIDING AN ALWAYS SHOWER UR GUIDANCE SIR 😊

Still waiting for Part-2

Out of the 3 conditions.. Only 1 condition was met when Fed reduced the rates. The other 2 are coming close... RRP facility as of 1st Nov 2024 - $155.47b Spread between US 10y and 3m as of 1st Nov 2024 is -0.24%. Countdown continues...

Out of the 3 conditions.. Only 1 condition was met when Fed reduced the rates. The other 2 are coming close... RRP facility as of 1st Nov 2024 - $155.47b Spread between US 10y and 3m as of 1st Nov 2024 is -0.24%. Countdown continues...

Thanks as always. Some of your previous videos referred to RRP and BTFP. Can you please also include updated analysis of those two in your next videos?

The latest news from US is there is going to be no recession in near future and the GDP has come out to be almost 3%. in the 3rd quarter and it is being predicted that US has avoided the prospects of a Recession... in this case what happens to the Indian markets... and mostly we are not going to repeat the history as usually has happened in the past

Kamala Harris next US President

One query ....If bond yields in USA and gold go up....will that mean shift in money from EMs to USA .

So, Mr. Guha. I guess you're back in your den, so to speak. Considering the BackDrop of your videos. First and foremost, welcome back. I hope you had a fruitful trip from both personal and professional perspectives. I have been eagerly waiting for your views, since the beginning of Oct 2024. This correction does not relate to the original hypothesis that you had proposed, but is still within my expectations. Bring on the knowledge....

Crisper the better I feel in general.

It has been while I am listening to your Videos.I am Vishwanath Vastrad, MBA in Fin in 2006. investor for 15 to 20 years. Whike I find them valuable and insightful, I also find you use a lot of English.. verbose.. which makes grasping difficult.. please be crisp. Thank you so much Indranil !!!

Many people might not like this, but brother its not necessary history will repeat, I dont expect any 30% upmove without the support from FIIs, you are delusional and most people here would like to hear all is well and hunky dory but the reality is this market is preparing for a gruesome fall

T10Y3M is very close to un-inversion and RRP is below $200B

Today’s economic indicators of USA -such as 2.8% GDP growth, a stable but slowing labor market, and inflation slightly above target-suggest the Fed's recent cuts aim to sustain growth rather than respond to a crisis. Therefore, while rate cuts have occasionally coincided with downturns, it’s usually during times of underlying economic weaknesses. The rate cuts alone don’t inherently cause market crashes. The video and few earlier videos are creating unwanted alarm and slightly misleading

Blessed

much needed content at this juncture.. eagerly waiting for your next 'MOVE'...Happy Dipawali 🙏

@indraneelguha! Fantastic content. Having said that couple of observations why my view might be slightly different and I believe we may not see the same play out we did in the 2008 scenario. 1. looking at price patterns alone does not really make a significant reading. I would be more concerned a more connected approach For example bonds markets were falling in 2008 which fuelled the rally even more. This time around though bonds markets are already compressing and all yields including india have been on an upwards trajectory. PE in 2008 September Indian markets PE multiples were close to 22-23x, From where a 8% correct made for lucrative yields. This time around they were around 26x which is not so lucrative. Even with current market correction we are at 23.5x 2 In india we are already witnessing a mild form of recession ( we have seen earnings decline for two quarter straight, q on q) While in 2008 we were still witnessing a huge earnings expansion which continued post the us recessionary pressure as well. My view is money will chase the highest yield, and with us bonds offering 4.4% and Indians earnings yield at similar levels, flight to safety will continue. And we might not see a rally like we did in 2007. 3. FII have kind of matured in the india and know that if they are the last one holding exits become kind of difficult, so they have become early sellers. I do hope I am wrong, and we do a significant rally, but even with a crash I see it as a opportunity to deploy increasing money, as the long terms story still holds good. And I do believe that any valuations are 18-20 multiples would be great time to build one’s portfolio.

I think you are referring to increasing US debt. Increased borrowings means US bond yields will increase. Hence investors will pull money out of EM and invest in rather safer instrument like US treasury

amazing analysis, now waiting for part 2

You are repeating same stuff again and again.

Thank you very much Guhaji for educating the retail investors. I manage my portfolio myself and this vital info is going to help me immensely. Happy Deepawali to you and your team! 🙏

Informative sir, awaiting for part 2

Great insights Indranil

Thank you Sir, for taking us back to 2007. History repeats itself, sure, but is it now?

Uncle free Mai mat gao, view hone se unity ko paisa mileage aur apko baba ji ka thullu 😎

While past rate cuts often signal market trends, today’s context is different enough that relying on the 2008 cycle as a guide could be misleading. Markets today are responding to a complex web of new factors that didn't exist before. Rather than predicting a market crash based solely on rate cut cycles, it’s more practical to look at today’s unique combination of inflation, labor shortages, and geopolitical factors for clues on what’s next.

Happy Diwali and A Very Happy New Year

Myself is working with data analysis of derivative data.

This video couldve been 2 mins

Keeps repeating the same thing till 5:30

It does mean just the cherry n toppings on the cake is eaten n the cake is still untouched, and will be eaten soon. By the way Move index is giving a solid green candle now.

Sir You came after long time. Love to see your video back ❤

Great wall of china 😂 all junk food box

Waiting for part 2. (It's just like waiting for Bahubali Part 2)

The difference in current scenario compared to 2007 conditions is our MF's have evolved and pump in huge cash into market every month as well as better participation from Retailers. So I'm sceptical about will market will follow 2007 trend. Please share your views.

Just wondering, have you considered the massive amount of money that I din investors have invested in the past 4 years? I dian MFs, in addition to the domestic retail money that they have already invested, is sitting on Rs. 2 lakh crores of cash, which they are yet to deploy. I am seriously wondering if we would really see a downward trend given the massive amounts of domestic retail money that's being pumped every day.

What did he say? He gave a chart of a very bad recession following a financial meltdown incident to the subprime housing crisis, then he said he is not the one who made a prediction based on a single historical incident- he said both - it may rain or it may not. Rest you wait until tomorrow. Typical economic prediction. It only means that economic predictions are just verbal diarrhoea. Better you command of your language, better you seem to perform.

US Market doesn't think tHAT inflation is going away.

As usual another great, interesting video. Awaiting part 2

excellent as usual ......

Quality content. However, while I am far from being good at this, as a feedback I would say the key message could easily be conveyed in half the duration of the video!

Good insight, Can you also link gold and silver movement with rate cuts.?

Your statement not Mach with the market conditions! You live in a different world man!

It won't pass easily. The change is f&o trading will permanently change the dynamics of the market 20500 nifty is quite possible in 6 months

Please add SnP500 to your comparison charts as it will be relevant to US market and Fed Funds Rate impact.

Your narration style is so transient that it detracts away attention from some very solid analysis that you do. My humble suggestion would be to just put it in a more natural way, so that it doesn’t sounds like you are reading a book for yourself. I really like to hear your market POV and analysis, and I think you are doing a very good work, but I just wish it to be a little more less tedious to watch.

Exce❤❤llant Sir