In this video, I explain how the emerging liquidity condition in 2024 is eerily similar to the emergence of severely tight liquidity conditions in the US financial system back in 2019. I also endeavor to explain in this video how the RRP facility has so far provided liquidity support to the US financial system and prevented 2019-like tight liquidity conditions from materializing. But the balance in the RRP is now down to less than 20% of its original balance, and once the RRP is fully exhausted, there is a very real risk that we could see severely tight liquidity conditions actually materializing in the US financial system, and that can only mean a heightened risk of a sell-off in equity markets.
Don't you think there is too much emphasis on FII inflows. As per my understanding FII have been selling for most part of the last Financial year. Domestic Institutions & Retailers have done bulk of the buying.
Great point Sir... domestic flows (especially those from SIP investors) have indeed served as a big cushion for Indian markets. These flows are now at a staggering 19,000 crores+ per month, and have helped shield our markets from the adverse impact of relentless selling by FII between 2021 and 2023. But we should NOT overstate the importance of domestic flows... there is a growing feeling, I believe amongst analysts in India that the scale of domestic flows are now so large that Indian markets are now arguably completely insulated from the adverse impacts of any risk-off events in global markets... and this is where I tend to strongly disagree with the emerging consensus. I do agree that thanks to our strong domestic flows, selling by FIIs will NOT cause the sort of drawdowns in Indian markets anymore that we saw back in 2008, when FIIs selling just about 40 - 50,000 crores worth of shares led to the NIFTY collapsing by a staggering 60%. Having said, I don't think our domestic flows are so material that Indian markets would be insulated from the adverse impacts as and when, let's say the US economy goes into a recession and there is a large correction US markets as a result of that. I have delved into this to some extent in an earlier Q&A video, which is available at: th-cam.com/video/ya-d8kSFzDE/w-d-xo.html (watch from 08:11) I will try to record and post a dedicated video on this topic in the near future explaining the nuances in greater details
The economy of a country is difficult to analyze because one has to know the situation how the country developed in the past 50 years and how the country’s firms are situated in comparison to competitors in other countries. That is a task which invites prophecy.
I rarely take the time to leave comments on TH-cam videos, but your meticulous analysis of the liquidity situation has compelled me to express my gratitude. Your thorough examination of the topic, combined with the clarity and depth of your insights, truly sets your content apart. It’s evident that you’ve invested significant effort in researching and presenting this valuable information. Thank you for sharing your expertise. Looking forward to more insightful content from you
You are a god send sir ji . Though we were fed info on QE, QT etc., we were never told in such clarity about liquidity , repo rate , debt ceiling, fed balance sheet in one canvas . 💐🙏
Gratitude becomes of you. The content on yield curve inversion was a big informative experience to me. I thought I was aware of yield curve . But the clarity opened my eyes to my deficit in the all important morsel of knowledge. Your painstaking approach and the charts were commendable. I was already informed of yield curve inversion in US and the lead lag effect . Yet I was unaware completely about the duration and extent of yield curve inversion. It was truly scary . That , sir , is a tribute to your sterling efforts
I have shared this lecture (yes i would call this a lecture and not just a youtube video)… in all my investment discord groups…. One of the best i have ever heard on this subject… thank you sir 🙏
You are such a broad-minded person to share such valuable knowledge free of cost. I felt like attending a session on finance at a premium management institution. Looking forward to more of your videos sir.
@@IndraanilGuha Pray, you do well Indraanil. May all the knowledge that you are attempting to disseminate be picked upon by those who are serious about learning, both, the fundamentals and the nuances within 🙏🏻
One of the truly educational TH-cam channels I have came across. The simplicity in your explanation is quite amazing. Keep up the good work sir for retail investors.
I have never seen any youtuber explain with so much clarity the most complex topics like quantitative tightening/easing, liquidity crunch and impact of fed decision on financial markets. You have such good grip on such complex topics! Its simply amazing. Where were you so many days sir?😂
Many thanks for the super kind words... glad you liked the video My primary motivation is just that - to make things easy, so that anyone - even those NOT from a finance background - can understand my content And thanks more so for subscribing to my channel
I have no words to express my thanks to you for taking the time out to explain such complex subject in a very simple and concise manner. I've never come across any youtube video from FA's explaining the implication of US Fed decisions on our markets. Looking forward to you next video 🙏
Many thanks for the kind words... very happy that you liked the video Yes, that's the key motivation - to explain these complex concepts without making them sound like rocket science!
I am unable to adequately express my appreciation for the exceptional manner in which you elucidated the subject matter. Although I have not yet joined any channels, my intuition strongly suggests that I should do so in your case. Your profound knowledge is truly awe-inspiring.
I am pleased to have discovered your channel when it had only 20,000 subscribers. Within a few years, this channel has the potential to reach millions of subscribers, and I would be honored to have joined at an early stage.
Koushik, many thanks for this expression of support... Really appreciate the spirit behind the contribution, but to be honest, this was not needed. I'll be just as grateful for your love and support, even if not accompanied by a monetary contribution! ভাল থেকো
I'm sorry, but I didn't mean to hurt you. I was overwhelmed by your lecture, though I had been a finance professional myself. Never new things can be made so simple. 👍🏻
I'm not hurt Koushik.. I'm just as overwhelmed with this kind of love and support pouring in from kind souls like you. Thank you once again for the love and support
Thanks for taking the pain to discuss these less discussed points. It may not attract a lot of viewership but is going to help people who are serious to understand the realm of equity investing. Your content is a gem. You got a new disciple. Thank you. #mangopeopleeconomics
You are very kind... I do have plans to organize meet-ups with my viewers and clients at least in the major cities... will keep you posted as and when plans crystallize a bit more. Where are you based?
A good analysis indeed! But best of the experts worldwide could never predict market crashes and hence this time also if it happens so is not going to be an exception. Thus, no body should either predict a crash or a boom irrespective of data and statistics as these data are only indicative in nature but not decisive. In the history of Independent India, India has witnessed 6 market cashes, 1982, 1992 (12.77%), 2008 (15%), 2015 (5.9%), 2016 (6%), 2020 (13.5%) but nobody could predict any of the crashes. This time yes Inflation is a major factor worldwide but the story in India is positively biased, the commodity cycle has started moving up benefitting commodity stocks, India's forex reserves standing at $6,42,631 million a record high, a robust growth rate outlook of 7.6 to 7.8% escalating to $3.6 trillion dollar and becoming fifth largest economy from 8th position, a robust capex push of government spending to 11 lakh crores, RBI’s smart management economics over inflation, rising consumption patterns, major push to defence production in India and rising GST collections (Rs.1.78 lakh crore in April, 2024), surplus liquidity condition in banking system and record inflow into mutual funds industry (AUM has grown from ₹ 23.80 trillion as on March 31, 2019 to ₹53.40 trillion as on March 31, 2024, more than 2 fold increase in a span of 5 years), ever highest exports of $776.3 billion in 2022-23, average agricultural growth of 4.6% in past 5 years and efficient government management over agriculture, are some of the factors which shall fuel the markets in India. Although short term corrections cannot be ruled out but those corrections shall not change the trend in the near term and thus every correction shall prove to be a buying opportunity rather than market crash.
India will correct anyway after elections irrespective of which party comes to power...it is going to correct deeply if Congress comes to power since it is going to be a change in power
Exceptionally well demonstrated lecture with in depth analysis and artifacts... THANKS! a lot for presenting such valuable learning videos on free platform like youtube.
Many thanks for these beautiful and kind words… very happy that you found the content useful! Many thanks once again for taking time to leave behind this super strong note of support and appreciation! Greatly appreciated!
Crazy crazy video. Epitome of the KISS strategy - keep it short and simple! Such clarity over complex issue of liquidity in the markets. Amazing. Loved it. Subscribed.
Many thanks for these kind words... glad you liked the video And yes, my key motivation behind creating these videos is to explain the underlying concepts without making them sound like rocket science
Was familiar with the various terms, but the clarity with which you have put them together to explain the situation we are in - is commendable. Kudos to your great effort.
Very detailed clear presentation of content that could be hard for many to explain. Great content please keep it coming, you are assured if support from us!!
solid content sir. Im from the northeastern state of India , Meghalaya where we can only rely people like you to get data which helps us position ourselves
Gerald, many thanks... very glad you liked the content! And glad more so to hear from someone from Meghalaya... my mom is from Shillong, and I have so many fond memories of the beautiful place!
Very good informative video. Hope, more and more youngsters seriously follow the underlying concepts & triggers and try to learn from all the effort you are putting in.
Hi Indra, your expertise in the world financial system and based on it the guidance to your viewers is highly commendable. It's 'Next Level' to be precise. I am a recent subscriber and will be eager to watch all your videos. Don't worry about your current subscriber base, it will surely grow. Someone has to be really smart to understand your view because the general masses are not as fluent on the topic. I'm sure all the top financial gurus must be watching you. Try to include Hindi subtitles as that is where most of your potential subscribers may come from. All the best and thanks for all the hard work that goes into making such intelligent content 👍
Many many thanks for your love and support Sir... glad you liked the video And thanks more so for subscribing to my channel I will soon be launching my Hindi channel and all my videos will soon be available there in Hindi too
Actual video starts after 5:45. Nearly 6 minutes of fluff almost made me leave, respecting the comments before mine that are singing praises of this video and knowledge. Willing to give it a chance.
What a fantastic class sir. EVen a non-finance person like me could understand it pretty clearly. Hats off to you. I just completed Stress Test book by Timothy Giethner on the 2008 collpase. This video helped me explain many things I couldn't understand in the book.You have an amazing gift of teaching.
Price based correction may come, but nifty may not fall as much as being assumed in the video. Nevertheless its an impeccable research work. Kudos. I've subscribed.
Many thanks.... glad you at least liked the research that went into the video. And thanks more so for subscribing to the channel... I have NOT tried to speculate on the quantum of the correction that is to come... I have only laid down the conditions that must be met, post which the probability of a correction would become higher and hence it would help if investors are doubly cautious then
kudos to the YT algo for recommending this video ..Dear @Indraanil many congratulations to you for making this awesome content and breaking down QE , QT is such a simple language .. now will watch all other videos posted by you ..cant wait for another one ..thx
Amazing analysis Indraneel da. Despite being a student of finance, I was not able to understand a lot of back end movement of money between various govt and banking players. Big thanks for lucidly explaining it.
Thank god for today I happened to watch this channel. Sir no words the knowledge of economics you're giving and the edge of your analysis are amazig.All the very best to you and I am pretty sure this channel going to be darling of Indian investors. Subscribed.
Indranil Sir you are brilliant, in all your videos you have served the most complex concepts in the ever most simplest way with strong basics. Fortunate to find & connect you in You Tube!
Your painstaking efforts are highly appreciated Complex topics presented with such detailed analysis and explained in simple ways My key takeaway is the learning, nevermind the stock market returns.
Many thanks... glad you liked the video My primary motivation is just that - to make things easy, so that anyone - even those NOT from a finance background - can understand my content
Really really Sir. I am a disciple of Akshat Srivastava, who is a macro investor. Yes I have learnt things from him, but such depth and search in detail discussions about things which I was confused about in spite of my mentor's mentioning (RRP, QT) were intensely discussed by you. I will also share with him your channel. If you continue to pour search Deep and straight forward, intensely complicated topics made simple for us- the channel will provide a huge impact in our lives as Indian retail investors. I am simply grateful, nothing to hide.
Soumik, many thanks for these super kind words... glad you liked the video And yes, my key motivation behind creating these videos is to explain the underlying concepts without making them sound like rocket science
Many thanks for the kind words... very happy that you liked the video Yes, that's the key motivation - to explain these complex concepts without making them sound like rocket science!
FED was printing all along when markets went up by 28% YTD and inflation was high too, and they will print more if needed, In US, debt ceiling is something that is meant to be raised until Armageddon comes and this is not that time…but the 3 pointers you mentioned are spot on.
A life time worth of wisdom. Great work Sir. Slow & steadily your journey on this channel will be accepted & its a matter of time , you will be a star. Its a high quality work.
Great analysis, information and really worth the time, thanks for sharing such indepth analysis, as of now no one sharing such high quality stuff and it really needs high level of economic background to understand.... No ordinary person can understand that! Blessed to have this higher order knowledge
Excellent Analysis.Hats off to u in educating the world.My doubt is inspie of printing billions of US dollars, How is it currency is not becoming weak globally where as in India or any other country printing excessive currency results in Rupee or respective countries currency becoming weaker raising dollar index no.This step-motherly treatment is adharma
Beacuse dollar is defacto currency, due to wars and ongoing inflation and local currency weakening many countries are buying dollars aggresively, for example turkey. Petro dollar, etc etc are some among the many factors. Infact while writing this down now i am thinking is this because is govt is funding wars 🧐🧐 hmm
Many thanks for the super kind words.... glad you found the content to be useful! US dollar NOT weakening because of such gargantuan amounts of money printing is because of the extraordinary privilege of being the reserve currency of the world! But this is exactly the kind of abuse of the reserve currency status that has led to the downfall of every reserve currency in history, and the eventual decline of the US Dollar because of similar abuse will be a story that's no different!
Appreciate your great efforts and courtesy to share such informative videos.❤. Please do a video on the current geo political issues and its impacts to our market. Tnx
What an absolutely fantastic education. Hats off to the time and effort you put in and the patience with which you explain. I have subscribed and am really looking forward to your future videos.
Thank you for your extremely valuable content . Now I have been able to understand the complex financial market with clarity . Excellent presentation . Please keep up. !
Many thanks for the kind words... very happy that you liked the video Yes, that's the key motivation - to explain these complex concepts without making them sound like rocket science!
But sir that is about US market (of course it affects global markets). Can you take into account what is going on in Indian markets for the last many months? Almost every day, FII/FPI sell while DII stabilize our market by using the enormous liquidity at their disposal. The mutual fund houses seem to have enough cash inflow from retail investors and others to make sure that the market is never under control by FII/FPI.
Great point... domestic flows (especially those from SIP investors) have indeed served as a big cushion for Indian markets. These flows are now at a staggering 19,000 crores+ per month, and have helped shield our markets from the adverse impact of relentless selling by FII between 2021 and 2023. But we should NOT overstate the importance of domestic flows... there is a growing feeling, I believe amongst analysts in India that the scale of domestic flows are now so large that Indian markets are now arguably completely insulated from the adverse impacts of any risk-off events in global markets... and this is where I tend to strongly disagree with the emerging consensus. I do agree that thanks to our strong domestic flows, selling by FIIs will NOT cause the sort of drawdowns in Indian markets anymore that we saw back in 2008, when FIIs selling just about 40 - 50,000 crores worth of shares led to the NIFTY collapsing by a staggering 60%. Having said, I don't think our domestic flows are so material that Indian markets would be insulated from the adverse impacts as and when, let's say the US economy goes into a recession and there is a large correction US markets as a result of that. I have delved into this to some extent in an earlier Q&A video, which is available at: th-cam.com/video/ya-d8kSFzDE/w-d-xo.html (watch from 08:11) I will try to record and post a dedicated video on this topic in the near future explaining the nuances in greater details
Bhai I will tell you one thing, this is a very good question indeed. Let me tell you what is happening. Entities like pfrda/ESIC/LIC ie insurance and pension schemes are stabalising the market. However, this has created a passive investing bubble. This passive investing will crash once a severe crash sets in. When nifty say drops to 10,000 and there are no buyers what do you think will happen. Having said this, this is a doomsday scenario, it won't happen until a war or something. But I believe we will see such a collapse world wide in next few years.
1)Your theory is totally dependent on liquidity provided by RRP. but from last 1 year FII s are net sellers .. DII and retailers are purchasing the stocks. Government also through indirectly maintaining the market.. 2)more over I belive this liquidity provided by RRP is devided across the globe.. so there are chances that the fresh liquidity may not come but FII may move their fund from China to India as Chinese markets are nt stable.. so we can not just rely on Macro triggers.. Indian economy is at different level now.. at micro level Indian market seems fundamentally and technically both way do not seems over valued. 3) impact of inflation may differ in developed country and developing country so there are chances that RBI may cut interest rate before Fed. As in recent Comentory Fed said tht rate cut may delay. So According to me we also take into account micro points as well rather than just focusing on USA.
Many thanks for the super kind words... very happy that you liked the video Yes, that's the key motivation - to explain these complex concepts without making them sound like rocket science!
part of icse "commercial studies" subject. had the option of dropping the science subjects for business studies. im very thankful to my parents for accepting a non traditional change. i also noticed that you have attached you mobile number in your videos. do you do consultancy or wealth management? if so, id like to have a chat .cheers @@IndraanilGuha
This is an excellent educational video on financial systems for us non-finance background folks. Worth saving in playlist for future reference as well. Subscribed!
Guha sir fabulous wisdom you shared today i have watched your three videos regarding corelation between liquidity , market growth , fef fund rate and inflation corelation ....fabulous content sir best wishes for u sir
Brilliant explanation on monetary policy, liquidity management and Fiscal policy in the USA. I hold a CFA charter and much appreciate the thoroughness of the analysis!
Many thanks for those super kind words Sir... Coming from someone with your kind of background makes it that much more special! Glad you liked the content
I just came across your channel today. I listened the content and subscribed the channel. I would say that the insights you share are exceptionally great and is uncommon and not available in other channels. This is “USP” of the channel i believe.
Many thanks for the super kind words... very happy that you liked the video Yes, that's the key motivation - to explain these complex concepts without making them sound like rocket science!
In this video, I explain how the emerging liquidity condition in 2024 is eerily similar to the emergence of severely tight liquidity conditions in the US financial system back in 2019. I also endeavor to explain in this video how the RRP facility has so far provided liquidity support to the US financial system and prevented 2019-like tight liquidity conditions from materializing. But the balance in the RRP is now down to less than 20% of its original balance, and once the RRP is fully exhausted, there is a very real risk that we could see severely tight liquidity conditions actually materializing in the US financial system, and that can only mean a heightened risk of a sell-off in equity markets.
Don't you think there is too much emphasis on FII inflows. As per my understanding FII have been selling for most part of the last Financial year. Domestic Institutions & Retailers have done bulk of the buying.
Great point Sir... domestic flows (especially those from SIP investors) have indeed served as a big cushion for Indian markets. These flows are now at a staggering 19,000 crores+ per month, and have helped shield our markets from the adverse impact of relentless selling by FII between 2021 and 2023. But we should NOT overstate the importance of domestic flows... there is a growing feeling, I believe amongst analysts in India that the scale of domestic flows are now so large that Indian markets are now arguably completely insulated from the adverse impacts of any risk-off events in global markets... and this is where I tend to strongly disagree with the emerging consensus.
I do agree that thanks to our strong domestic flows, selling by FIIs will NOT cause the sort of drawdowns in Indian markets anymore that we saw back in 2008, when FIIs selling just about 40 - 50,000 crores worth of shares led to the NIFTY collapsing by a staggering 60%. Having said, I don't think our domestic flows are so material that Indian markets would be insulated from the adverse impacts as and when, let's say the US economy goes into a recession and there is a large correction US markets as a result of that.
I have delved into this to some extent in an earlier Q&A video, which is available at:
th-cam.com/video/ya-d8kSFzDE/w-d-xo.html
(watch from 08:11)
I will try to record and post a dedicated video on this topic in the near future explaining the nuances in greater details
@@sureshsaboo7310great point sir
The economy of a country is difficult to analyze because one has to know the situation how the country developed in the past 50 years and how the country’s firms are situated in comparison to competitors in other countries. That is a task which invites prophecy.
Though liquidity will get tightened in USA, won't decreasing interest rates help in bringing in more liquidity into system and balance the tightening?
I rarely take the time to leave comments on TH-cam videos, but your meticulous analysis of the liquidity situation has compelled me to express my gratitude. Your thorough examination of the topic, combined with the clarity and depth of your insights, truly sets your content apart. It’s evident that you’ve invested significant effort in researching and presenting this valuable information. Thank you for sharing your expertise. Looking forward to more insightful content from you
Many many thanks for such generous praise.... truly humbled! Glad you like the video
You are a god send sir ji . Though we were fed info on QE, QT etc., we were never told in such clarity about liquidity , repo rate , debt ceiling, fed balance sheet in one canvas . 💐🙏
Many thanks... glad you liked the video!
I've learned so much today...my entire 20 years of education feels nothing infront of this vidoe.
Many many thanks for such generous praise.... truly humbled!
Very happy to know that you liked the video
So what to do exactly.
Book complete profit and wait for fresh entry or book partial profits?
Gratitude becomes of you. The content on yield curve inversion was a big informative experience to me.
I thought I was aware of yield curve . But the clarity opened my eyes to my deficit in the all important morsel of knowledge. Your painstaking approach and the charts were commendable.
I was already informed of yield curve inversion in US and the lead lag effect . Yet I was unaware completely about the duration and extent of yield curve inversion. It was truly scary . That , sir , is a tribute to your sterling efforts
Many many thanks for such generous praise.... truly humbled!
Very happy to know that you liked the video
I have shared this lecture (yes i would call this a lecture and not just a youtube video)… in all my investment discord groups…. One of the best i have ever heard on this subject… thank you sir 🙏
Gaurav, many thanks for the kind words and for sharing the video with your friends and family... really glad you found the content to be useful
I usually look for buffet indicator, but this is much better and adding more value in context to nifty
Many many thanks for the kind words.... truly humbled!
You are such a broad-minded person to share such valuable knowledge free of cost. I felt like attending a session on finance at a premium management institution. Looking forward to more of your videos sir.
Even better than that..
Many many thanks for such generous appreciation... am truly humbled... really glad you liked the video
And thanks again for subscribing to my channel
Well mentioned. For common Investors, who are truly keen to learn, these are lessons and tools which are priceless nuggets.
Mr. Bhattacharya, you are very very kind! Thanks once again for these kind words
@@IndraanilGuha Pray, you do well Indraanil. May all the knowledge that you are attempting to disseminate be picked upon by those who are serious about learning, both, the fundamentals and the nuances within 🙏🏻
One of the truly educational TH-cam channels I have came across. The simplicity in your explanation is quite amazing. Keep up the good work sir for retail investors.
Many thanks for the kind words... really glad you liked the video...
I have never seen any youtuber explain with so much clarity the most complex topics like quantitative tightening/easing, liquidity crunch and impact of fed decision on financial markets.
You have such good grip on such complex topics!
Its simply amazing.
Where were you so many days sir?😂
Many thanks for the super kind words... glad you liked the video
My primary motivation is just that - to make things easy, so that anyone - even those NOT from a finance background - can understand my content
And thanks more so for subscribing to my channel
Superbly presented Sir, Highly appreciated your efforts. Very informative 😊
Am a veterinary doctor and really I learned something new in this video 🙏😊
I have been in the market for a long time and first time I heard such clarity on a complex topic. Great work and thanks.
Many many thanks...glad you liked the video
I have no words to express my thanks to you for taking the time out to explain such complex subject in a very simple and concise manner. I've never come across any youtube video from FA's explaining the implication of US Fed decisions on our markets. Looking forward to you next video 🙏
Many thanks for the kind words... very happy that you liked the video
Yes, that's the key motivation - to explain these complex concepts without making them sound like rocket science!
I am unable to adequately express my appreciation for the exceptional manner in which you elucidated the subject matter. Although I have not yet joined any channels, my intuition strongly suggests that I should do so in your case. Your profound knowledge is truly awe-inspiring.
I am pleased to have discovered your channel when it had only 20,000 subscribers. Within a few years, this channel has the potential to reach millions of subscribers, and I would be honored to have joined at an early stage.
Many thanks @shahfareed for these extraordinarily kind words
Glad you liked my content
Thanks
Koushik, many thanks for this expression of support... Really appreciate the spirit behind the contribution, but to be honest, this was not needed. I'll be just as grateful for your love and support, even if not accompanied by a monetary contribution!
ভাল থেকো
I'm sorry, but I didn't mean to hurt you.
I was overwhelmed by your lecture, though I had been a finance professional myself.
Never new things can be made so simple. 👍🏻
I'm not hurt Koushik.. I'm just as overwhelmed with this kind of love and support pouring in from kind souls like you. Thank you once again for the love and support
Thank you is such a small word for the kind of quality of content you provided. Hats off to you for educating the laymen in a fairly easy manner.
Many Thanks... Glad you liked the content
Such an underrated gem of a channel
Many thanks for the kind words... very happy that you liked the video
Great help for retail investors like me. GOD bless!!!!
Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video
U r analysis and research is very deep... Good work and thanks for sharing this with us..
Many thanks... glad you liked the video!
Thanks for taking the pain to discuss these less discussed points. It may not attract a lot of viewership but is going to help people who are serious to understand the realm of equity investing. Your content is a gem. You got a new disciple. Thank you. #mangopeopleeconomics
Many thanks... glad you liked the video!
@@IndraanilGuha Hi, plan some offline event to explain these data points as a sessions, so we get a chance to meet you as well.
You are very kind...
I do have plans to organize meet-ups with my viewers and clients at least in the major cities... will keep you posted as and when plans crystallize a bit more.
Where are you based?
Hi,@@IndraanilGuhai am based in Bangalore. Thanks
A good analysis indeed! But best of the experts worldwide could never predict market crashes and hence this time also if it happens so is not going to be an exception. Thus, no body should either predict a crash or a boom irrespective of data and statistics as these data are only indicative in nature but not decisive. In the history of Independent India, India has witnessed 6 market cashes, 1982, 1992 (12.77%), 2008 (15%), 2015 (5.9%), 2016 (6%), 2020 (13.5%) but nobody could predict any of the crashes.
This time yes Inflation is a major factor worldwide but the story in India is positively biased, the commodity cycle has started moving up benefitting commodity stocks, India's forex reserves standing at $6,42,631 million a record high, a robust growth rate outlook of 7.6 to 7.8% escalating to $3.6 trillion dollar and becoming fifth largest economy from 8th position, a robust capex push of government spending to 11 lakh crores, RBI’s smart management economics over inflation, rising consumption patterns, major push to defence production in India and rising GST collections (Rs.1.78 lakh crore in April, 2024), surplus liquidity condition in banking system and record inflow into mutual funds industry (AUM has grown from ₹ 23.80 trillion as on March 31, 2019 to ₹53.40 trillion as on March 31, 2024, more than 2 fold increase in a span of 5 years), ever highest exports of $776.3 billion in 2022-23, average agricultural growth of 4.6% in past 5 years and efficient government management over agriculture, are some of the factors which shall fuel the markets in India. Although short term corrections cannot be ruled out but those corrections shall not change the trend in the near term and thus every correction shall prove to be a buying opportunity rather than market crash.
India will correct anyway after elections irrespective of which party comes to power...it is going to correct deeply if Congress comes to power since it is going to be a change in power
Only HOW is being explained. But WHEN is/was nobody's guess.
@@rsubhasify congress will not come to the power
@@rsubhasify Congress will not come to power in the first place, if they come it won't be correction but an death of indian Market. 😂
@@Chirag-f3ustill market will correct after election...
Have never heard such a nice talk which could be understood by a layman like me
Many thanks for the super kind words.... glad you found the content to be useful!
Amazing vide sir. You have superb knowledge 👍
I have rarely seen such deep analysis of these subjects on TH-cam
Many thanks.... Glad you liked the content
Exceptionally well demonstrated lecture with in depth analysis and artifacts... THANKS! a lot for presenting such valuable learning videos on free platform like youtube.
Many thanks for these beautiful and kind words… very happy that you found the content useful! Many thanks once again for taking time to leave behind this super strong note of support and appreciation!
Greatly appreciated!
Crazy crazy video. Epitome of the KISS strategy - keep it short and simple! Such clarity over complex issue of liquidity in the markets. Amazing. Loved it. Subscribed.
Many thanks for these kind words... glad you liked the video
And yes, my key motivation behind creating these videos is to explain the underlying concepts without making them sound like rocket science
Excellent explanation.. Thank you . Eagerly waiting for next video...
Many many thanks... really glad you liked the video
Was familiar with the various terms, but the clarity with which you have put them together to explain the situation we are in - is commendable. Kudos to your great effort.
Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video
Good content and analysis.
With this type of content, hope u will get more than a million subscribers .
Many thanks for such kind words... really glad you liked the video
Very detailed clear presentation of content that could be hard for many to explain. Great content please keep it coming, you are assured if support from us!!
Many thanks for the kind words... really glad you liked the video...
solid content sir. Im from the northeastern state of India , Meghalaya where we can only rely people like you to get data which helps us position ourselves
Gerald, many thanks... very glad you liked the content!
And glad more so to hear from someone from Meghalaya... my mom is from Shillong, and I have so many fond memories of the beautiful place!
@@IndraanilGuha really ,thats nice which part of Shillong was she from?
Jail Road
Very nice vedio.... thanks
Many thanks... really glad you liked the video
Every thing is clear with examples on the charts. Thanx for the dideo.
Fantastic! Very indepth, deep dive into the looming liquidity crisis. Insights were Very impressive. Thanks.
Many thanks for these kind words... glad you liked the video
Very good informative video. Hope, more and more youngsters seriously follow the underlying concepts & triggers and try to learn from all the effort you are putting in.
Mr Bhattacharya, many many thanks for these kind words once again... really glad you liked this video as well
This channel would soon be one of the credible and popular one. Wish you all the best for making quality content.
Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video
Hi Indra, your expertise in the world financial system and based on it the guidance to your viewers is highly commendable. It's 'Next Level' to be precise. I am a recent subscriber and will be eager to watch all your videos. Don't worry about your current subscriber base, it will surely grow. Someone has to be really smart to understand your view because the general masses are not as fluent on the topic. I'm sure all the top financial gurus must be watching you. Try to include Hindi subtitles as that is where most of your potential subscribers may come from. All the best and thanks for all the hard work that goes into making such intelligent content 👍
Many many thanks for your love and support Sir... glad you liked the video
And thanks more so for subscribing to my channel
I will soon be launching my Hindi channel and all my videos will soon be available there in Hindi too
Amazing video sir .. thankyou so much for sharing such in-depth knowledge
You will grow fast but only with people who know basics of economics and are serious investors . Good you are not playing to the gallery .
Many many thanks Mr Maheswari for your support... glad you liked this video too
Actual video starts after 5:45. Nearly 6 minutes of fluff almost made me leave, respecting the comments before mine that are singing praises of this video and knowledge. Willing to
give it a chance.
Starting mein Bohot e gas dete hain 😅😅😅
What a fantastic class sir. EVen a non-finance person like me could understand it pretty clearly. Hats off to you. I just completed Stress Test book by Timothy Giethner on the 2008 collpase. This video helped me explain many things I couldn't understand in the book.You have an amazing gift of teaching.
You are most welcome
Price based correction may come, but nifty may not fall as much as being assumed in the video.
Nevertheless its an impeccable research work. Kudos. I've subscribed.
Many thanks.... glad you at least liked the research that went into the video.
And thanks more so for subscribing to the channel...
I have NOT tried to speculate on the quantum of the correction that is to come... I have only laid down the conditions that must be met, post which the probability of a correction would become higher and hence it would help if investors are doubly cautious then
kudos to the YT algo for recommending this video ..Dear @Indraanil many congratulations to you for making this awesome content and breaking down QE , QT is such a simple language .. now will watch all other videos posted by you ..cant wait for another one ..thx
Many many thanks for your support... glad you liked the video
Excellent
Many thanks... really glad you liked the video
Amazing analysis Indraneel da. Despite being a student of finance, I was not able to understand a lot of back end movement of money between various govt and banking players.
Big thanks for lucidly explaining it.
Many many thanks... glad you liked the video
Thank god for today I happened to watch this channel. Sir no words the knowledge of economics you're giving and the edge of your analysis are amazig.All the very best to you and I am pretty sure this channel going to be darling of Indian investors. Subscribed.
Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video
Thanks for sharing such a wonderful content Sir. I will call you a Sir because you are showing the truth and making us cautious. Truth will prevail
Many thanks... glad you liked the video
Thanks for sharing your knowledge. Appreciated!
Many many thanks... really glad you liked the video
Indranil Sir you are brilliant, in all your videos you have served the most complex concepts in the ever most simplest way with strong basics. Fortunate to find & connect you in You Tube!
Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video
Your painstaking efforts are highly appreciated
Complex topics presented with such detailed analysis and explained in simple ways
My key takeaway is the learning, nevermind the stock market returns.
Many thanks... glad you liked the video
My primary motivation is just that - to make things easy, so that anyone - even those NOT from a finance background - can understand my content
Really really Sir. I am a disciple of Akshat Srivastava, who is a macro investor. Yes I have learnt things from him, but such depth and search in detail discussions about things which I was confused about in spite of my mentor's mentioning (RRP, QT) were intensely discussed by you. I will also share with him your channel. If you continue to pour search Deep and straight forward, intensely complicated topics made simple for us- the channel will provide a huge impact in our lives as Indian retail investors. I am simply grateful, nothing to hide.
Soumik, many thanks for these super kind words... glad you liked the video
And yes, my key motivation behind creating these videos is to explain the underlying concepts without making them sound like rocket science
Many thanks to you sir for explaining such complex topics in such an easy manner.
Many thanks for the kind words... very happy that you liked the video
Yes, that's the key motivation - to explain these complex concepts without making them sound like rocket science!
Excellent content and it's eye opening... No words for your valuable content. Thank you and pls keep us searching for your contents.
Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video
One of the most eye opening session I have seen. Pls educate us as yu are very good sir
Many thanks... glad you liked the video
And thanks more so for subscribing to my channel
FED was printing all along when markets went up by 28% YTD and inflation was high too, and they will print more if needed, In US, debt ceiling is something that is meant to be raised until Armageddon comes and this is not that time…but the 3 pointers you mentioned are spot on.
Many thanks... glad you liked the video
Brilliant! Too good for a free content. Feeling privileged to subscribe to your channel.
Many thanks for the super kind words.... glad you found the content to be useful
Another XLNT video with clear and useful information. Thank you, Mr, Guha. Many greetings from Denmark
Many thanks... very happy to know that you found the content to be useful
Very nice information
Many thanks... really glad you liked the video
Nice presentation even for non finance person.
Lot of channels present assumption. Nice to see data backed presentation
Only facts.
Many many thanks for the kind words... really glad you liked the video
A life time worth of wisdom. Great work Sir. Slow & steadily your journey on this channel will be accepted & its a matter of time , you will be a star. Its a high quality work.
Many many thanks for the kind words... really feel blessed to see outpour of such generous affection from my audience... many thanks again
soo grateful to youtube algorithm that I found this gem.
Many thanks... very happy that you liked the video
Great analysis, information and really worth the time, thanks for sharing such indepth analysis, as of now no one sharing such high quality stuff and it really needs high level of economic background to understand.... No ordinary person can understand that! Blessed to have this higher order knowledge
Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video
And thanks again for subscribing to the channel
Excellent Analysis.Hats off to u in educating the world.My doubt is inspie of printing billions of US dollars, How is it currency is not becoming weak globally where as in India or any other country printing excessive currency results in Rupee or respective countries currency becoming weaker raising dollar index no.This step-motherly treatment is adharma
Beacuse dollar is defacto currency, due to wars and ongoing inflation and local currency weakening many countries are buying dollars aggresively, for example turkey. Petro dollar, etc etc are some among the many factors. Infact while writing this down now i am thinking is this because is govt is funding wars 🧐🧐 hmm
Many thanks for the super kind words.... glad you found the content to be useful!
US dollar NOT weakening because of such gargantuan amounts of money printing is because of the extraordinary privilege of being the reserve currency of the world! But this is exactly the kind of abuse of the reserve currency status that has led to the downfall of every reserve currency in history, and the eventual decline of the US Dollar because of similar abuse will be a story that's no different!
Hi. I am a new listener from Hong Kong. Thank you for making your videos in English. Pertinent information.
Many many thanks for love and support.... glad you liked the video
While I knew all of these individually, you connected the dots. Thanks!
Many thanks... glad you liked the video
Beutiful analysis
Many thanks for the super kind words... very happy that you liked the video
Appreciate your great efforts and courtesy to share such informative videos.❤. Please do a video on the current geo political issues and its impacts to our market. Tnx
Many many thanks... really glad you liked the video
Don’t sell any thing just hold. They try to trick you to sell all ur holding so that big fish could buy them for short time profit.
No matter what you say, they'll sell anyway😂
Portfolio crashed I am selling
Ase hi bol bol ke Retailers ko Faste hain ... don't sell don't sell. . are bhai Jiska Target achieved ho gaya hai .. market se bahar niklo
@@gautamghosh1615 hope you did not sell
@@gautamghosh1615ok dada
Excellent explanation. It also answers the questions I had in the previous video. Ty
Many thanks once again for taking the time to show your appreciation once again... really glad you liked the video
Great video explaining very complex concepts in a very simple to understand language for layman. Waiting for your next video.
Many many thanks for such generous praise.... glad you liked the video
What an absolutely fantastic education. Hats off to the time and effort you put in and the patience with which you explain. I have subscribed and am really looking forward to your future videos.
Many many thanks for such generous praise.... truly humbled!
Glad you liked the video
Thank you for your extremely valuable content . Now I have been able to understand the complex financial market with clarity . Excellent presentation . Please keep up. !
Many thanks for the kind words... very happy that you liked the video
Yes, that's the key motivation - to explain these complex concepts without making them sound like rocket science!
Amazing explanation of the market workings. I am sure a lot of work has gone into making this video. Thank you!
Many many thanks... glad you liked the video
But sir that is about US market (of course it affects global markets). Can you take into account what is going on in Indian markets for the last many months? Almost every day, FII/FPI sell while DII stabilize our market by using the enormous liquidity at their disposal. The mutual fund houses seem to have enough cash inflow from retail investors and others to make sure that the market is never under control by FII/FPI.
Exactly!
Wait bro, after every bull run there have a bear phase
Great point... domestic flows (especially those from SIP investors) have indeed served as a big cushion for Indian markets. These flows are now at a staggering 19,000 crores+ per month, and have helped shield our markets from the adverse impact of relentless selling by FII between 2021 and 2023. But we should NOT overstate the importance of domestic flows... there is a growing feeling, I believe amongst analysts in India that the scale of domestic flows are now so large that Indian markets are now arguably completely insulated from the adverse impacts of any risk-off events in global markets... and this is where I tend to strongly disagree with the emerging consensus.
I do agree that thanks to our strong domestic flows, selling by FIIs will NOT cause the sort of drawdowns in Indian markets anymore that we saw back in 2008, when FIIs selling just about 40 - 50,000 crores worth of shares led to the NIFTY collapsing by a staggering 60%. Having said, I don't think our domestic flows are so material that Indian markets would be insulated from the adverse impacts as and when, let's say the US economy goes into a recession and there is a large correction US markets as a result of that.
I have delved into this to some extent in an earlier Q&A video, which is available at:
th-cam.com/video/ya-d8kSFzDE/w-d-xo.html
(watch from 08:11)
I will try to record and post a dedicated video on this topic in the near future explaining the nuances in greater details
Bhai I will tell you one thing, this is a very good question indeed. Let me tell you what is happening. Entities like pfrda/ESIC/LIC ie insurance and pension schemes are stabalising the market. However, this has created a passive investing bubble. This passive investing will crash once a severe crash sets in. When nifty say drops to 10,000 and there are no buyers what do you think will happen. Having said this, this is a doomsday scenario, it won't happen until a war or something. But I believe we will see such a collapse world wide in next few years.
1)Your theory is totally dependent on liquidity provided by RRP. but from last 1 year FII s are net sellers .. DII and retailers are purchasing the stocks. Government also through indirectly maintaining the market..
2)more over I belive this liquidity provided by RRP is devided across the globe.. so there are chances that the fresh liquidity may not come but FII may move their fund from China to India as Chinese markets are nt stable.. so we can not just rely on Macro triggers.. Indian economy is at different level now.. at micro level Indian market seems fundamentally and technically both way do not seems over valued.
3) impact of inflation may differ in developed country and developing country so there are chances that RBI may cut interest rate before Fed. As in recent Comentory Fed said tht rate cut may delay.
So According to me we also take into account micro points as well rather than just focusing on USA.
Awesome❤
Many thanks... very happy that you liked the video
Absolutely fantastic
Many thanks... really glad you liked the video
Very deep and amazing content for Investors ! ❤
Many thanks... very happy that you liked the video
Excellent class, no words to describe. Even a MBA student will get benefitted. Thanks
Many thanks for the super kind words... very happy that you liked the video
Yes, that's the key motivation - to explain these complex concepts without making them sound like rocket science!
Reminds me of my grade 9 teacher who taught us all of this. So glad I listened then
Many thanks... glad you liked the content!
Your teacher taught you Fed Balance Sheet, Quantitative Tightening and RRP in grade 9! You are super lucky!
part of icse "commercial studies" subject. had the option of dropping the science subjects for business studies. im very thankful to my parents for accepting a non traditional change. i also noticed that you have attached you mobile number in your videos. do you do consultancy or wealth management? if so, id like to have a chat .cheers
@@IndraanilGuha
In nutshell, a great comprehensive analysis and teaching
Many thanks... very happy that you liked the video
amazing video very helpful, thank you sir.
This is an excellent educational video on financial systems for us non-finance background folks. Worth saving in playlist for future reference as well. Subscribed!
Many thanks for the kind words... glad you found the content useful
Guha sir fabulous wisdom you shared today i have watched your three videos regarding corelation between liquidity , market growth , fef fund rate and inflation corelation ....fabulous content sir best wishes for u sir
Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video
Brilliant
Many thanks... glad you liked the video
good info sir nice explianation
Many thanks... glad you liked the video
Brilliant explanation on monetary policy, liquidity management and Fiscal policy in the USA. I hold a CFA charter and much appreciate the thoroughness of the analysis!
Many thanks for those super kind words Sir... Coming from someone with your kind of background makes it that much more special! Glad you liked the content
really great and educational
Many thanks... glad you liked the video
Excellent explanation of complicated economics I was hungry about
Many thanks... really glad you liked the video
amazing content ... would love to see your future presentations too.. subscribed and waitng for your next one.. all the best.
Many thanks.... glad you liked the video
And thanks more so for subscribing to the channel
Thanks you have described very very deeply
Very useful for taking investment decisions
Many many thanks.... glad you liked the video
Thank you sir for the video. It was very informative. Instead wasting my time watching useless videos, I have learned something important.
Many thanks.... glad you liked the video
Great content n analysis with a simplistic way of explaining, with dots connected to arrive at insights! More success to you Indranil !
Many many thanks.... glad you liked the video
excellent demonstration!! tremendous knowledge truely. i am honest admirer of you.
Many thanks for the kind words... glad you liked the video
Very nice, elaborate but simple explanation of the situation. Thank You for all your efforts 🙏
Many Thanks.... Glad you liked the video
I just came across your channel today. I listened the content and subscribed the channel. I would say that the insights you share are exceptionally great and is uncommon and not available in other channels. This is “USP” of the channel i believe.
Many thanks.... glad you liked the video
And thanks more so for subscribing to the channel
Very Good..... Kep Going
Many thanks.... glad you liked the video
Sir great educational video
Many thanks for the super kind words... very happy that you liked the video
Yes, that's the key motivation - to explain these complex concepts without making them sound like rocket science!
Content is really informative even a newbie could understand. Kudos to the effort❤..
Many many thanks... really glad you liked the video
Master piece ... great explanation...
Lot of love and support
Many many thanks for love and support.... glad you liked the video
Thanks Sir for the excellent insight of what one needs to know as an investor in stock market 🙏
Many Thanks.... Glad you liked the video
Sir , excellent video.. this video is enough to learn US finance system and its impact in equity markets
Many thanks for the kind words... glad you liked the video
Amazing insights Sir ! Thank you for enlightening us with your expertise. Looking forward to such content.
Many many thanks... glad you liked the video