The NIFTY is currently witnessing a period of extremely elevated volatility. It started off with the Federal Reserve starting its most recent rate cut cycle in the US on 18-Sept-24 with a big bang 50 basis points cut, and since then the NIFTY has been witness to an almost 11% correction. So what exactly is driving the current bout of volatility in NIFTY? More importantly, are there any market parameters / indicators that can potentially help estimate how long with volatile phase is likely to last and what is likely to the optimal point for re-entry into equity markets? I discuss exactly that in this video. So do watch this video till the end.
कितना ज्ञान बर्धक वीडियो है खास आप पहले हिंदी मै वीडियो बनाए होते. आपकी तारीफ़ करने मैं शब्द नहीं हे मेरे पास. आपकी साथ जुडकर मैं खुद को भाग्यशाली मानता हूं. धन्यवाद.
I think no other Indian finfluencer has shared such deep insight on relation between US bond yields and nifty correction in Hindi. Really appreciate you on such next level insights.Please keep it up.Thanks for enlightening...
This is original content. Nowadays all the so called financially literate influencers just keep repeating each other's words and cause nothing but confusion
Hats off to you sir. You have explained this complex topic in such a simplified and comprehensive manner, literally I'm able to grasp each and every word uttered without any problem.
Sirji, What an excellent knowledge based video. Topic is bit difficult to understand by common man, h/ever you have tried your best to explain in extremely easy language. Thanks a lot for this superb video.
Thank you so much. Last few days I have been repeatedly watching your last 3 part sessions. Waiting for both Move index and 10yr yield to move downwards
You were the first Indian you tuber to predict this fall 7 months back sir. Congratulations sir. I am a big fan of yours. Macroeconomics how it affects came to know now.
Thank you for explaining so simply why the FIIs sell, what is move index and how it is related. And classy attire as always. A request is if we can predict the prices of gold and silver in this
The only dissimilarity between 2007-08 scenario is the ongoing geo-political scenario. Lots of war fields have opened up now. It will be interesting to see by how much this factor can tweak the timing and magnitude of the impending correction.
Thank you so much for explaining Move Index vs Nifty movement! It's truly an eye opener! Following Move Index will give a better clarity about Nifty movement, right?
Amazing content 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻... I can clearly understand the amount of time and research you or your team have to put in to accumulate so much data, charts, graphs, info....thank you Dada 🙏🏻... But, what about DJT cutting Taxes and imposing Tariffs ... Inflation toh badhega na fir se ??? Logo ke hath me paise honge, I mean dollars 💰 honge... Fir kya hoga ? Aur Powell sahab toh sidha sidha bol diye ki "we have avoided the Recession"... Inflation fir se badhega yehi soch ke toh Jerome Babu ne 2025 me rate cut kam hoga aisa bola. Pata nahi kya chal raha hai. Kya America ke data reliable hota hai ? Jobloss data, inflation data ...yeh sab ?
Excellent information. Many new angles have been brought out. I believe that the yield curve has started uninverting in the US. Please share your insights. Thanks...
Thank you so much sir teaching this much and in detail is blessing by you there is very few channels are there who give this type of teaching and research again thank you so much
Please elaborate when in history move index and bond y index both came down together in the chart , BTW THESE WAS A AWESOME PRESENTATION WITH GOOD INSIGHT THX
As per ur analysis 3 main se 2 recession indicators done....also the 3rd reverse repo balance usd 98.356 billion about to reach zero....plz comment on these too
Once again, another great and highly insightful video, @IndraanilGuha. The effort you put in explaining complex macro economics topics with such detail, while keeping it simple enough that a layperson can also understand, makes you a great teacher. I have one small suggestion: at 2:36, in the chart where you overlap FFR and Nifty 50 data over last 20 years, try plotting just the Nifty 50 line on a Logarithmic scale on Y axis (while keeping the FFR on a linear scale). You'll be able to see the features of the Nifty 50 trend much more clearly. Generally speaking, non linear trends are well visualized by using logarithmic scale on y axis, expecially when data is large (20 years in this case)
Dada as per my knowledge of current us situation.....is ....inflation is going up again and slowdown in economy is also there as job market is cooling down... My question to u sir is that if inflation rises and economy goes in slowdown then how will equity markets react?kindly in ur next video help out on this... This question becomes sevear because inflation in economy shows progress and if economy is slowing down and inflation rises then what is the reason and it's effect on equity market... I would be obliged if u make a video on such topic
Thanks Indraanil. What would be the impact of recession or slow growth in Indian economy? What if the inflation rates are not very high and interest rate are being cut but the Indian economy is not doing good? Would it impact the Nifty in a major way that this theory doesnot work anymore?
Thanks so much for sharing your wisdom. So are we waiting for resumption of rally in Nifty and probably nifty might crash after that if certain conditions meet and us economy enters recession.?
Absolutely amazing content unlike other technical analysis::: sir; now u r waiting for inflation to go down & consequently bond yield to go down thereby a scope for gain in equity market ;;;; but sir that ll be a temporary phase & again bcz of slowdown & recession in world economy market ll crash as explained by u earlier;;; so will u please confirm that this particular expectation of upmove in equity is temporary & severe sell off ll occur substantially;; pl respond
Please make an episode on relationship between India Government Bonds / Bond yields / interest rates. As we know the Bond funds will perform better in falling interst rate scenario, as the Bond prices and interest rate moves in opposite direction. Is it correct or wrong?
Hi sir i was eagerly waiting for your next video after the recent rate cut in fed and crash in market......an here comes your next video.as expected............thankyou once again for very insightful information
Govt bond in 2007 was lower low and rallied. Now bond yield is touched new high compared to sep 24. Market never behaves same as all said dec will have Santa clause rally. The thing election also has a market movement. NOV 24 is election time unlike 2007 did not have election. Election was in 2008.
The NIFTY is currently witnessing a period of extremely elevated volatility. It started off with the Federal Reserve starting its most recent rate cut cycle in the US on 18-Sept-24 with a big bang 50 basis points cut, and since then the NIFTY has been witness to an almost 11% correction. So what exactly is driving the current bout of volatility in NIFTY? More importantly, are there any market parameters / indicators that can potentially help estimate how long with volatile phase is likely to last and what is likely to the optimal point for re-entry into equity markets? I discuss exactly that in this video. So do watch this video till the end.
Which USA economic datas show the USA Economy going into recession? How? What time of the month is it released?
Please explain in English also
कितना ज्ञान बर्धक वीडियो है खास आप पहले हिंदी मै वीडियो बनाए होते. आपकी तारीफ़ करने मैं शब्द नहीं हे मेरे पास. आपकी साथ जुडकर मैं खुद को भाग्यशाली मानता हूं. धन्यवाद.
@@Guiding100कितना मुस्किल से कमेन्ट कर कर के हम लोग इनको इंगलिश से हिन्दी मै लाए है. आप सर फिर इनको इंगलिश मै लेजाना चाहते है हम फिर क्या करेगें ?
Jabse apne ham sab ke liye hindi mein video banana suru kiye , tab se world economy samjh ne mai bahut fayda hua hai.
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सर, आपने तो उत्कृष्ट तरीके से जो विश्लेषण किया है उसका जवाब नहीं! आपका बहुत-बहुत धन्यवाद. ❤
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Thanku one again Sir ,for imparting knowledge at absolutely no fee charged.🙏🙏
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I think no other Indian finfluencer has shared such deep insight on relation between US bond yields and nifty correction in Hindi.
Really appreciate you on such next level insights.Please keep it up.Thanks for enlightening...
Many thanks.....glad you liked my content
ऐसा ज्ञान फ़्री मे कहां मिलता है ? आप का भला हो और आप का ज्ञान और गेहेरा हो ऐसी शुभकामना!!
This is original content. Nowadays all the so called financially literate influencers just keep repeating each other's words and cause nothing but confusion
Many thanks....glad you liked my content
Hats off to you sir. You have explained this complex topic in such a simplified and comprehensive manner, literally I'm able to grasp each and every word uttered without any problem.
Many thanks....glad you liked my content
Indranil ❤❤❤❤❤❤ What a wonderful analysis you are a wonderful teacher. 🕉️
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another masterpiece from you Indranil ji. Very nicely explained.
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Thanks for making Hindi version, very helpful
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Sirji,
What an excellent knowledge based video. Topic is bit difficult to understand by common man, h/ever you have tried your best to explain in extremely easy language. Thanks a lot for this superb video.
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This is a masterclass 👏 ... this was enlightening in very simple language .. thanks a ton
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sir one fact that in 2007-08 india was ruled by UPA which didnt manipulated data...and this time NDA who are strong manipulators....
This video represents one of the most significant pieces of content I have ever seen on internet. Thank you very much, Sir..! 😊
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Sir kya bat hai sir. Apake jaisa knowledge shayad hi kisi ke pas hoga sir. Thanku sir apake Hindi version ke liye
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Your prediction may not be correct but I really appreciate you for sharing knowledge with us...👍.
Very important and informative video..thank u so much sir
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Very lucid explanation of current stock market volatility. Thanks for such a educative video.
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Thank you so much. Last few days I have been repeatedly watching your last 3 part sessions. Waiting for both Move index and 10yr yield to move downwards
You were the first Indian you tuber to predict this fall 7 months back sir. Congratulations sir. I am a big fan of yours. Macroeconomics how it affects came to know now.
Not true! He said the markets will pump once fed starts cutting rates and then dump once 3 criteria were met, but there was no pump
I was waiting for this push to exit@@nishantvbhat
Sir,aap ka ey hindi me video, sahi me hume economy samajh ne me bohot help karte hay.
Bas Dil lag geya sir ji, ❤❤❤
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Thank you - good patients & clarity market understanding - thank you
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Awesome knowledge, thank you.
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Absolutely informative
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Excellently done.. Especially the last 10 minutes very extremely insightful. Kudos to your sincerity and efforts. Thank you.
Thank you very much for detailed explanation.
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Such a great knowledge in a simplified way. Hats off to you ❤. Watched your first video and instantly liked. Please keep it up
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Thank you for explaining so simply why the FIIs sell, what is move index and how it is related. And classy attire as always. A request is if we can predict the prices of gold and silver in this
Excellent Analysis. Informative and insightful.
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Your hindi is as fluent as English. As far as content is concerned it is as usual top notch.
Really unique and insightful analysis. Really grateful to you Indranil Da
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Thanks Indranil. You explain everything very patiently and in detail...great content
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Thanks a ton, Indranil! Very helpful insights. Many smiles and much metta.
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Sir, grt efforts. Sincere thanks. Looking forward to much more in future. Thanks. 🙏
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The knowledge you provide in this video is GOLD 🥇 🔥
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It's amazing this video may complete change our investment strategy. thanks for making video in Hindi
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Great work sir, this really an eye opener, now i understood why these FII are selling, please give us the signal to start the investment
My 3rd Guruji 🙏🙏🙏 in my life..
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i made it reverse & am in loss now. actually i do not understand economics but trying to learn from you. waiting for your nxt video. thanks
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Nice info sir, really thank you for giving us this Market information ❤
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Absolutely wonderful economic commentary.
Thankyou sir ❤
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Super genius Sir ! Truly appreciate for valuable insight 🙏
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Good explanation sir, we will wait for your green signal
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Very educational! Many thanks!
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Sir, thank you very much for your efforts for Hindi videos. I watched both. I have watched your all earlier videos. Subscribing this channel too.
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Class apart content,Thank you so much for explaining the impact of macro economics on the stock market with such clarity.
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As always, an excellent and highly informative video
Thank you for this update
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The only dissimilarity between 2007-08 scenario is the ongoing geo-political scenario. Lots of war fields have opened up now. It will be interesting to see by how much this factor can tweak the timing and magnitude of the impending correction.
Very knowledgeable thanks sir
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Great.. very well explained ❤
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Thank you so much for explaining Move Index vs Nifty movement! It's truly an eye opener! Following Move Index will give a better clarity about Nifty movement, right?
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Excellent insight. This has been very helpful
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Thanks sir 🙏
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In depth knowledge... thank you Sir.
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sir,many thanks for such informatives and updates..
thank you❤
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Amazing content 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻... I can clearly understand the amount of time and research you or your team have to put in to accumulate so much data, charts, graphs, info....thank you Dada 🙏🏻... But, what about DJT cutting Taxes and imposing Tariffs ... Inflation toh badhega na fir se ??? Logo ke hath me paise honge, I mean dollars 💰 honge... Fir kya hoga ? Aur Powell sahab toh sidha sidha bol diye ki "we have avoided the Recession"... Inflation fir se badhega yehi soch ke toh Jerome Babu ne 2025 me rate cut kam hoga aisa bola. Pata nahi kya chal raha hai. Kya America ke data reliable hota hai ? Jobloss data, inflation data ...yeh sab ?
Welcome sir in Hindi 🎉🎉
thanks a lot sir. very informative
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Excellent information. Many new angles have been brought out.
I believe that the yield curve has started uninverting in the US. Please share your insights. Thanks...
No words ..Only Gratitude!
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Very well explained, sir.
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Sir, where to find the move index and US bond yields chart?
Gpod prrsentation ..cleared some concepts of bond yield vs bond prices and irs effect in margin money call❤
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Simply awesome….👏🏻👏🏻
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You are a legend sir .
Very informative video makes a lot of sense. Please let us know the correct time to invest in Nifty.
Great job Sir
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Thank you so much sir teaching this much and in detail is blessing by you there is very few channels are there who give this type of teaching and research again thank you so much
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Sir your Hindi videos are even better than the one in English. Please change to Hindi.
GOD BLESS YOU
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thanks sir sharing good information with us❤❤❤
Please elaborate when in history move index and bond y index both came down together in the chart , BTW THESE WAS A AWESOME PRESENTATION WITH GOOD INSIGHT THX
Indranil, amazing video, can you divulge where do you take the US unemployment rate data from?
As per ur analysis 3 main se 2 recession indicators done....also the 3rd reverse repo balance usd 98.356 billion about to reach zero....plz comment on these too
How to track move index
How FII s works In home country to other countries Like India regarding thier investments and Selling. There must be a Video on the Topic. God Bless U
hi sir where can we find live rates of move index
Jbse aapne hindi me video banana start Kiya hai mene apne sbhi friend ko aapka channel suggest kiya hai. Sbhi 12 milkr apka video dekhte hai
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Once again, another great and highly insightful video, @IndraanilGuha. The effort you put in explaining complex macro economics topics with such detail, while keeping it simple enough that a layperson can also understand, makes you a great teacher.
I have one small suggestion: at 2:36, in the chart where you overlap FFR and Nifty 50 data over last 20 years, try plotting just the Nifty 50 line on a Logarithmic scale on Y axis (while keeping the FFR on a linear scale). You'll be able to see the features of the Nifty 50 trend much more clearly. Generally speaking, non linear trends are well visualized by using logarithmic scale on y axis, expecially when data is large (20 years in this case)
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What is the end game?
Very informative Indranil
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Dada as per my knowledge of current us situation.....is ....inflation is going up again and slowdown in economy is also there as job market is cooling down...
My question to u sir is that if inflation rises and economy goes in slowdown then how will equity markets react?kindly in ur next video help out on this...
This question becomes sevear because inflation in economy shows progress and if economy is slowing down and inflation rises then what is the reason and it's effect on equity market...
I would be obliged if u make a video on such topic
Thanks Indraanil. What would be the impact of recession or slow growth in Indian economy? What if the inflation rates are not very high and interest rate are being cut but the Indian economy is not doing good? Would it impact the Nifty in a major way that this theory doesnot work anymore?
FED is moving away from rate cuts , so Bear Market has to wait , only small corrections (less than 10%) possible.
Thanks so much for sharing your wisdom. So are we waiting for resumption of rally in Nifty and probably nifty might crash after that if certain conditions meet and us economy enters recession.?
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outstanding
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Very nice analysis
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Amazing
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Absolutely amazing content unlike other technical analysis::: sir; now u r waiting for inflation to go down & consequently bond yield to go down thereby a scope for gain in equity market ;;;; but sir that ll be a temporary phase & again bcz of slowdown & recession in world economy market ll crash as explained by u earlier;;; so will u please confirm that this particular expectation of upmove in equity is temporary & severe sell off ll occur substantially;; pl respond
Good analysis but too long . Pls make video length to less then 15mins
Please make an episode on relationship between India Government Bonds / Bond yields / interest rates. As we know the Bond funds will perform better in falling interst rate scenario, as the Bond prices and interest rate moves in opposite direction. Is it correct or wrong?
Sir now what should investor do..? Who is fully invested in a ratio of 52% Large cap and 48% Small and Midcap..
Good job
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Thanks.
Top notch
Hi sir i was eagerly waiting for your next video after the recent rate cut in fed and crash in market......an here comes your next video.as expected............thankyou once again for very insightful information
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I really enjoyed your commentary regarding all the macro indicators, it will definitely help me make right decisions for my portfolio.
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Govt bond in 2007 was lower low and rallied.
Now bond yield is touched new high compared to sep 24.
Market never behaves same as all said dec will have Santa clause rally.
The thing election also has a market movement.
NOV 24 is election time unlike 2007 did not have election.
Election was in 2008.