About 9 months back, I had laid down on this channel three clear conditions that must be fully met before a sizeable market crash can materialize. These conditions started to get fulfilled from Sept-24 onwards, and so far, two out of three conditions have been fully met, and even the third one is very close to being met. And it can’t be mere coincidence that equity markets have become increasingly volatile just as these conditions are getting fulfilled one by one. And this brings us to a very important question - now that the pre-requisite conditions for a market crash to materialize are all met, or is on the verge of being met, should we assume that a large market correction is imminent now? Also, is the final melt-up in stocks that typically plays before the onset of every recession still on the cards? Last but NOT the least, now that this correction has already played out for over 3 months, how close are we from the bottom and is it possibly now the right time to buy this dip? These are the key questions whose answers I explore in this episode. So do watch this video till the end.
The only reason I see is slow gdp growth in India and bad results for most nifty 50 companies.Things may cool down soon as there is a probable rate cut in next rbi meeting plus loads of DIImoney inflows.Market will remain sideways for at least 2025.EITHER THE EARNINGS WILL CATCH UP OR THEN THE NEXT BIG DOWN MOVE WILL COME .
@@shubhamsoam1076 the real pain is India/RBI can't bring rates down unilateraly once US does that RBI will do it... Now the real challenge is to see if Trump uses this action as a weapon against India because we are on inflexion point of badly needing RATE cuts...
I appreciate your dedication to educating your viewers with such high quality analysis which is not found anywhere. I listened to both the english and Hindi version and appreciate your commitment towards your viewers.
Superb You were the first person to talk on volatility even before market start showing signs You are not as flashy as other fin influencers but your content seems good well studied. All the best for your channel and carry on with good work you are doing.
All Predictive Theories to Self satisfy .... Rather then making so many Permutations and Combinations, One should focus on Companies with Solid Fundamentals and Solid Growth Potential ..... Bcz Stock Price is the Slave to Earning ...And these stocks will be the 1sr to bounce back even if they dip with market correction...
Keep 30% cash or rotate to other sectors by Investing in small quantities in every dips in MFs or ETFs or Stocks that has good valuation, like good quartely profits, reasoble P/E, reasonably priced, market competitiveness, in sectors like Healthcare/pharma, largecaps (Nifty 50), Nifty next 50, Alpha low volatility 30 index, AI ETFs (i.e. AIQ ETF in US market), Private banks and make sure to allovcate your investments in sectors after the Indian budget on 1st Feb'25.
I should say that i have seen many chartists and market experts but indranil sir is best in business.. I understood everything like a student and my concepts were so clear that i felt confident.. 🙏🙏thanks sir.. All the best🙏
Good data driven analysis. May i ask that derivative data of NSE is also important for finding the Trend of mrket ? Please guide as well. By the way waited long for the video. I always search for u r chaneel for new analysis. Thanks
great video, everyone is wondering about the bond yields and equities' mismatched inverse correlation at the moment. May be a big correction is on the way!
Extraordinary analysis. I have heard many analysis on TH-cam but never heard such a terrific analogy between Nifty, US 10 year Bond Rate and Move. Fantastic new knowledge for us. BTW Indranil your Hindi oration is superb. I am from Kolkata - where are you stationed? God bless you.
Keep 30% cash or rotate to other sectors by Investing in small quantities in every dips in MFs or ETFs or Stocks that has good valuation, like good quartely profits, reasoble P/E, reasonably priced, market competitiveness, in sectors like Healthcare/pharma, largecaps (Nifty 50), Nifty next 50, Alpha low volatility 30 index, AI ETFs (i.e. AIQ ETF in US market), Private banks and make sure to allovcate your investments in sectors after the Indian budget on 1st Feb'25.
Thank you, always Useful. Does it mean 15% dip from top and then atleast 20-30% rise. At the end mega dip approx 6 months after fulfilling the third condition? This should be the last leg of rally. Sometime in 2026 we can expect free fall.. Pls simplify...
Keep 30% cash or rotate to other sectors by Investing in small quantities in every dips in MFs or ETFs or Stocks that has good valuation, like good quartely profits, reasoble P/E, reasonably priced, market competitiveness, in sectors like Healthcare/pharma, largecaps (Nifty 50), Nifty next 50, Alpha low volatility 30 index, AI ETFs (i.e. AIQ ETF in US market), Private banks and make sure to allovcate your investments in sectors after the Indian budget on 1st Feb'25.
Hello Mr.Indraanil , As the US CPI data is out and inflation is within expectations , move index fell by 8% to 93% , us bond yield started coming down (4.8 to 4.66) , is it time to start build position for last meltup ?
The most recent Inflation data is confirming my thesis that inflation fears among bond investors is totally misplaced. But I don't think we are out of the woods yet. I think we need to wait for the new US administration to take over and see to what extent the new President acts on his threat to impose punitive tariffs, becaue that will have bearing on inflation, and in turn on bond yields. In the immediate future, my base case is that bond yields will continue to climb and that I think will be negative for stocks near term. But ultimately, I think weakness in labor market Will start to drive bond yields lower, and that could well set the stage for the next leg up for stocks
Would request you to correlate historical FIIs ownership in Indian stock market too. I think dynamics are changing and as we progress further US dollar and economy will face the heat as their debt burden has increased so much. Will ever be independent from what's happening in the US stock or bond market.
First time I am listening you but didn't subscribe yet.... After watching few videos I have to subscribe... Don't worry Indraanilbabu 😊 A bengali viewer from WB.
Hi sir, wonderful video as always. Requesting your take that the current market scenario might be like 2000 to 2001 where the blow of top never came and markets started correcting prior to yeild curve uninversion. Could the current fall in the nifty lead into the crash ? September 2000 jobs report is very similar to the recent december 2024 jobs report. Couldn't the blow off top not come at all and we see a slow bleed for the next 2 years as the US market starts to fall too ? In the year 2000 the economy was weak but the markets fell and the markets falling lead to the recession. Couldn't such a situation play out now too ? Yeild curve looks like it is accelerating it's uninversion usually a sign of recession.
All of these outcomes are entirely possible my friend... can the final blow off top NOT happen this time? this too is entirely possible! Having said that, as I have laid down in my recent videos, this is NOT my outlook for now. At this point, when I see economic data in the US, I can clearly see an economy that is distinctly slowing down, but continues to have a lot of strength, and the biggest source of strength for the US economy right now is government spending by the US government. US fiscal deficit currently stands at about 6% of the US GDP, and most of this deficit is getting directed towards a host of government spending programs that support the economy. In fact, it's spending by the US government that is keeping the US job market afloat for now. Hiring by the government sectors (in education and healthcare sectors continues to be exceptionally strong). If not for this, hiring by the private sector has completely collapsed. And as long as government continues to prop up the labor market, you can't get the kind of spike in unemployment that is needed to push the economy into a recession. That said, I shape my outlook basis nothing but data... if I see any change in the emerging landscape basis new data, I will adjust my outlook accordingly, and will also update my audience about the same
@IndraanilGuha Thank you, sir. Love your macro videos. I am very keen on the series for your rules based approach to investing. I'm so humbled that you take time out of your day to answer my questions. From a fellow market enthusiast, you are truly amazing at what you do. I am learning a lot.
Ya sir one pullback is there.Then after a big crash is imminent in the near term.Those who are well versed in financial markets may earn tremendous amount of money in the long term.But those who are having patience may thrive in this challenging times like you and me.
Sir, Kya ham levarage le sakte hain for delivery option at Nifty 22000 level. I can hold poaition for next 2 years and plan to sell in last decadal rally of Nifty ...
i think the conclusion is made on few data points but not covering all aspects , market rose in optimism related to india in 2022 but this time optimism is proven to be wrong , and alot depends on budget. but overall lot of shares are trading at 100+ pe without any earning growth or future potential.. I closely follow your opinion and it would be interesting to see what happens next i think nifty can easily reach below 20000 this year considering macros, results and technicals, i think lot of things dwell on over optimism in 2020 to 2023 which is going to take a toll..
All good. we appreciate your efforts and financial knowledge. We also like,share, and watch till end. I hope you don't start member only paid channel and subscription service. This is all happening, when we thumps up and they finally down us.
As I mentioned in the video, in my opinion, the meltup is still on the cards... We need to wait for the current bout of volatility to fully play out first.
I'm not a technical analysyw... So don't have a view on what levels we could see... But my best guess at this stage continues to be that we could well see new all time highs
@IndraanilGuha Thanks for one more fantastic video🙏 (I've seen the English version already). After yesterday's US unemployment data there's huge spike in both long & short end of the yield curve. Wall Street Economists are not optimistic on further FED rate cuts !! In this context, what's your view on Indian 10 Y & 2Y yield? Are you expecting massive spikes in yield in short to medium term here in India ?
Let's NOT get distracted by one month of strong data... Yes, non-farm payroll data data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the month of Dec-24 points to a strong labor market. But we have seen many instances right thru 2024 of initially reported non-farm payroll data data pointing towards a strong labor market, only for the data to be revised sharply downwards in subsequent months. For e.g. total number of new jobs created by the US economy as per the initial data released by the BLS between Jan to Sep-24 was about 2 million jobs. However the way this works is that survey respondents who are surveyed by the BLS continue to respond to BLS up until many months after the enquiry is first initiated by BLS, and BLS continues to revise it non-farm payroll data for previous months as more and more respondents of previous months' surveys send in their responses for previous months, and as things stand, the BLS has had to revise its initial estimate of the total number of new jobs created by the US economy between Jan to Sep-24 downwards from 2 million jobs to 1.6 million jobs! That's a downward revision of almost 20%. So let's wait for the revisions! I am NOT so sure about the job market really being as strong as the Dec data suggests
Keep 30% cash or rotate to other sectors by Investing in small quantities in every dips in MFs or ETFs or Stocks that has good valuation, like good quartely profits, reasoble P/E, reasonably priced, market competitiveness, in sectors like Healthcare/pharma, largecaps (Nifty 50), Nifty next 50, Alpha low volatility 30 index, AI ETFs (i.e. AIQ ETF in US market), Private banks and make sure to allovcate your investments in sectors after the Indian budget on 1st Feb'25.
De-dollarization refers to the phenomenon of countries around the world moving away from parking their foreign exchange reserves in US government bonds to other assets such as Gold, bonds of countries other than US, and even bitcoin. I think the trend is real... especially, some migration towards gold has unmistakably gained strength in recent years... but it's a very slow process... I do NOT think that this is something that can potentially impact the overall investment climate, especially for retail investors in India in the near future
Sir maine lumsum around 23500 par 17 lacs ka invest kiya hai mutual fund main ab market niche hai to bahut loss dikha raha hai kya ab main bech kar bahar nikal jaun please guide
Keep 30% cash or rotate to other sectors by Investing in small quantities in every dips in MFs or ETFs or Stocks that has good valuation, like good quartely profits, reasoble P/E, reasonably priced, market competitiveness, in sectors like Healthcare/pharma, largecaps (Nifty 50), Nifty next 50, Alpha low volatility 30 index, AI ETFs (i.e. AIQ ETF in US market), Private banks and make sure to allovcate your investments in sectors after the Indian budget on 1st Feb'25.
Why FII invest in US bond & then they pledge it & invest loan amount in Indian market, why don't they invest that money directly into indian market? As they must be loosing few points in extra interest on loan than interest they get from bond investment
Pls dont repeat the earlier video and try to show it as a new video. The later content in the video is picked up from your old video. Even the data for Move index is for the month of November 24.
My investments in Mutual funds have gone on the Red minus figure. It's making me jittery as my hard earned money is depreciating. Kindly suggest should i redeem it with a minimal loss to invest later once the market recovers. Please suggest as i get sleepless nights worrying.
Reminds me of Ekta Kapoor serials. Repeating same things, wasting half of the time in new videos revisiting already covered topics everytime. Then again sharing same content in hindi.
About 9 months back, I had laid down on this channel three clear conditions that must be fully met before a sizeable market crash can materialize. These conditions started to get fulfilled from Sept-24 onwards, and so far, two out of three conditions have been fully met, and even the third one is very close to being met. And it can’t be mere coincidence that equity markets have become increasingly volatile just as these conditions are getting fulfilled one by one. And this brings us to a very important question - now that the pre-requisite conditions for a market crash to materialize are all met, or is on the verge of being met, should we assume that a large market correction is imminent now?
Also, is the final melt-up in stocks that typically plays before the onset of every recession still on the cards? Last but NOT the least, now that this correction has already played out for over 3 months, how close are we from the bottom and is it possibly now the right time to buy this dip? These are the key questions whose answers I explore in this episode. So do watch this video till the end.
The only reason I see is slow gdp growth in India and bad results for most nifty 50 companies.Things may cool down soon as there is a probable rate cut in next rbi meeting plus loads of DIImoney inflows.Market will remain sideways for at least 2025.EITHER THE EARNINGS WILL CATCH UP OR THEN THE NEXT BIG DOWN MOVE WILL COME .
Powerful insights thank you sir we have a very little money 💰 we can’t afford expensive courses of stock market learning 🕉️🕉️🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼
@@shubhamsoam1076 the real pain is India/RBI can't bring rates down unilateraly once US does that RBI will do it... Now the real challenge is to see if Trump uses this action as a weapon against India because we are on inflexion point of badly needing RATE cuts...
I appreciate your dedication to educating your viewers with such high quality analysis which is not found anywhere. I listened to both the english and Hindi version and appreciate your commitment towards your viewers.
Many thanks...glad you liked the video
Sir your hindi is also very sweet.
Please keep up the great work
Ofcourse in English too. 👀 looking for English version 🙏
Superb
You were the first person to talk on volatility even before market start showing signs
You are not as flashy as other fin influencers but your content seems good well studied.
All the best for your channel and carry on with good work you are doing.
Many thanks for these kind words...glad you liked my content
One can / should skip first 13 minutes
12 minutes
Thank you
He is a fool😊😊😊😊
15 mins
25 mints
बहुत ही ज्ञानवर्धक जानकारी मिला है आपके इस वीडियो के माध्यम से. हिन्दी में वीडियो बनाने कि हमारे अनुरोध रक्षा करने की शुक्रिया !!
Many thanks....glad you liked the content
This is a kind of data interpretation video that a investor like me seeks the most
Many thanks.. glad you liked the content
Sir, great, keep it up, hats off, good analysis and i have been in this market for the last 15 years and your analysis is great. God bless you!
Many thanks...glad you liked the content
Yes, sometimes reiteration is necessary because insaan ki yaadast kamjor hoti hain... Great effort 🙏
Could please update on the present market condition, next rally and crash??
All Predictive Theories to
Self satisfy .... Rather then making so many Permutations and Combinations, One should focus on Companies with Solid Fundamentals and Solid Growth Potential ..... Bcz Stock Price is the Slave to Earning ...And these stocks will be the 1sr to bounce back even if they dip with market correction...
Well said bro
Keep 30% cash or rotate to other sectors by Investing in small quantities in every dips in MFs or ETFs or Stocks that has good valuation, like good quartely profits, reasoble P/E, reasonably priced, market competitiveness, in sectors like Healthcare/pharma, largecaps (Nifty 50), Nifty next 50, Alpha low volatility 30 index, AI ETFs (i.e. AIQ ETF in US market), Private banks and make sure to allovcate your investments in sectors after the Indian budget on 1st Feb'25.
Kudos to you and your family and also your team.
Many thanks...glad you liked the content
Please explain, the charts in discussion, being inversely correlated become directly correlated, at times and what to do at these times?
Thank You so much Sir, we have never heard this type of Analysis, Thanks and God Bless
Many thanks....glad you liked my content
I should say that i have seen many chartists and market experts but indranil sir is best in business.. I understood everything like a student and my concepts were so clear that i felt confident.. 🙏🙏thanks sir.. All the best🙏
Many thanks...glad you liked the content
@@IndraanilGuha absolutely sir 🙏
Thanks for your FIRST HINDI clip on Stock Market sir ji 🎉👍👍👍.
Many thanks....glad you liked my content
Your videos did help me do asset re-allocation as per nifty PE. Right now, my portfolio is still sitting at all time high due to this. 🤑
Many thanks...glad you liked the content
Good data driven analysis. May i ask that derivative data of NSE is also important for finding the Trend of mrket ? Please guide as well. By the way waited long for the video. I always search for u r chaneel for new analysis. Thanks
Appreciate your passion to share rich & high quality knowledge...❤
Many thanks...glad you liked my content
Great video 🎉🎉. Watched both videos in english as well in hindi also ❤❤. Keeps going 🎉🎉🎉🎉
Many thanks....glad you liked the video
Wow...hindi me majja aa gaya...thank u thank u sooo much sirjee ,,🙏🙏🙏
Many thanks....glad you liked the content
great video, everyone is wondering about the bond yields and equities' mismatched inverse correlation at the moment. May be a big correction is on the way!
Many thanks.....glad you liked the content
Extraordinary analysis. I have heard many analysis on TH-cam but never heard such a terrific analogy between Nifty, US 10 year Bond Rate and Move. Fantastic new knowledge for us. BTW Indranil your Hindi oration is superb. I am from Kolkata - where are you stationed? God bless you.
Many thanks.....glad you liked my content
I am from Mumbai
Thank you very much for updates.Great work
Many thanks....glad you liked the video
Should we offload some of our holdings? say 10% or 15%... then pick up the same post correction? Move money to debt fund?
Wrong strategy, stay invested. Do downward averaging of good companies
@@Jackofalltrades18😅 there is no money for averaging that's why we are asking
I really appreciate this informative and excellent video . Thanks a lot .
Many thanks...glad you liked my content
Very nice video....but still there is confusion that what should we should?
Keep 30% cash or rotate to other sectors by Investing in small quantities in every dips in MFs or ETFs or Stocks that has good valuation, like good quartely profits, reasoble P/E, reasonably priced, market competitiveness, in sectors like Healthcare/pharma, largecaps (Nifty 50), Nifty next 50, Alpha low volatility 30 index, AI ETFs (i.e. AIQ ETF in US market), Private banks and make sure to allovcate your investments in sectors after the Indian budget on 1st Feb'25.
@Mahindrank-w6k thanks... your knowledge bis commandble
Thank you, always Useful. Does it mean 15% dip from top and then atleast 20-30% rise. At the end mega dip approx 6 months after fulfilling the third condition? This should be the last leg of rally. Sometime in 2026 we can expect free fall.. Pls simplify...
Revision is important.. ❤❤🎉🎉
Nice video.. keep spreading knowledge... Also let's know when are you going to start buying...
Many thanks for your support...glad you liked my content
Sir ihave seen all your video sir please also mention what the retail investors do with their ongoing sip
Keep 30% cash or rotate to other sectors by Investing in small quantities in every dips in MFs or ETFs or Stocks that has good valuation, like good quartely profits, reasoble P/E, reasonably priced, market competitiveness, in sectors like Healthcare/pharma, largecaps (Nifty 50), Nifty next 50, Alpha low volatility 30 index, AI ETFs (i.e. AIQ ETF in US market), Private banks and make sure to allovcate your investments in sectors after the Indian budget on 1st Feb'25.
Which books do you refer for this kind of knowledge ?
Hello Mr.Indraanil , As the US CPI data is out and inflation is within expectations , move index fell by 8% to 93% , us bond yield started coming down (4.8 to 4.66) , is it time to start build position for last meltup ?
The most recent Inflation data is confirming my thesis that inflation fears among bond investors is totally misplaced. But I don't think we are out of the woods yet. I think we need to wait for the new US administration to take over and see to what extent the new President acts on his threat to impose punitive tariffs, becaue that will have bearing on inflation, and in turn on bond yields.
In the immediate future, my base case is that bond yields will continue to climb and that I think will be negative for stocks near term. But ultimately, I think weakness in labor market Will start to drive bond yields lower, and that could well set the stage for the next leg up for stocks
@IndraanilGuha Thank you for the insights. Hope there will be post from you when we are nearing there . Thanks.
Yes of course
@indraanilguha your english videos are much more interactive
Would request you to correlate historical FIIs ownership in Indian stock market too. I think dynamics are changing and as we progress further US dollar and economy will face the heat as their debt burden has increased so much. Will ever be independent from what's happening in the US stock or bond market.
First time I am listening you but didn't subscribe yet.... After watching few videos I have to subscribe... Don't worry Indraanilbabu 😊 A bengali viewer from WB.
V good analysis!
My Technical analysis is giving very similar expectations till next rally.
Hi sir, wonderful video as always. Requesting your take that the current market scenario might be like 2000 to 2001 where the blow of top never came and markets started correcting prior to yeild curve uninversion. Could the current fall in the nifty lead into the crash ? September 2000 jobs report is very similar to the recent december 2024 jobs report. Couldn't the blow off top not come at all and we see a slow bleed for the next 2 years as the US market starts to fall too ? In the year 2000 the economy was weak but the markets fell and the markets falling lead to the recession. Couldn't such a situation play out now too ? Yeild curve looks like it is accelerating it's uninversion usually a sign of recession.
All of these outcomes are entirely possible my friend... can the final blow off top NOT happen this time? this too is entirely possible!
Having said that, as I have laid down in my recent videos, this is NOT my outlook for now. At this point, when I see economic data in the US, I can clearly see an economy that is distinctly slowing down, but continues to have a lot of strength, and the biggest source of strength for the US economy right now is government spending by the US government. US fiscal deficit currently stands at about 6% of the US GDP, and most of this deficit is getting directed towards a host of government spending programs that support the economy. In fact, it's spending by the US government that is keeping the US job market afloat for now. Hiring by the government sectors (in education and healthcare sectors continues to be exceptionally strong). If not for this, hiring by the private sector has completely collapsed. And as long as government continues to prop up the labor market, you can't get the kind of spike in unemployment that is needed to push the economy into a recession.
That said, I shape my outlook basis nothing but data... if I see any change in the emerging landscape basis new data, I will adjust my outlook accordingly, and will also update my audience about the same
@IndraanilGuha Thank you, sir. Love your macro videos. I am very keen on the series for your rules based approach to investing. I'm so humbled that you take time out of your day to answer my questions. From a fellow market enthusiast, you are truly amazing at what you do. I am learning a lot.
Good analysis sir
Many thanks....glad you liked my content
Thank you Sir Represent US Authentic Data🙏🙏
Many thanks...glad you liked my content
Sir please make one detail video about bond markets as well..thanks sir
US debt ceiling impact on Indian markets. Please explain.
Ya sir one pullback is there.Then after a big crash is imminent in the near term.Those who are well versed in financial markets may earn tremendous amount of money in the long term.But those who are having patience may thrive in this challenging times like you and me.
One should focus on quality under Valued stock , they will continue to do well. If nifty closed below 23K on DCb , then expect lower levels,
Sir, Kya ham levarage le sakte hain for delivery option at Nifty 22000 level. I can hold poaition for next 2 years and plan to sell in last decadal rally of Nifty ...
Uptrends started soon sir ji because we are in major oversold territory....... जय हिन्द 🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳
Thanks sir, for this knowledge
Many thanks.....glad you liked the content
Thank you
Many thanks....glad you liked the content
Hindi me video banaiye, full support hai ,,, sabko reference de raha hu .
Many thanks for your support.. glad you liked the video
i think the conclusion is made on few data points but not covering all aspects , market rose in optimism related to india in 2022 but this time optimism is proven to be wrong , and alot depends on budget. but overall lot of shares are trading at 100+ pe without any earning growth or future potential.. I closely follow your opinion and it would be interesting to see what happens next i think nifty can easily reach below 20000 this year considering macros, results and technicals, i think lot of things dwell on over optimism in 2020 to 2023 which is going to take a toll..
All good. we appreciate your efforts and financial knowledge. We also like,share, and watch till end. I hope you don't start member only paid channel and subscription service. This is all happening, when we thumps up and they finally down us.
Main video Kab aayega 😢 apna hi gaana gaaye jaaraha 😅
Kya DII insignificant he , kya companies kee performance , future earning ki koi value nahee ??? DII aur retail investors kab damdaar honge
Thank you for such timely updates
Many thanks....glad you liked the content
Melt-up will take Nifty to what levels?? Expected all time high??
Hi sir we are waiting for your updated video in Hindi
Almost 13.5 percent corrected low .i hope now meltup slowly possible .
But upto which levels ctoss ATH ?
As I mentioned in the video, in my opinion, the meltup is still on the cards... We need to wait for the current bout of volatility to fully play out first.
I'm not a technical analysyw... So don't have a view on what levels we could see... But my best guess at this stage continues to be that we could well see new all time highs
Are you saying that nifty will fall to 18000 zone
Tell us what will happen in near future
Sir pls do English version of the video
The English version of this video has already been posted: th-cam.com/video/6yXlX0wr-9k/w-d-xo.html
When will US market crash, i live in Canada, not concerned about Indian stock market, Rupee is constantly depericiating
Sir ye move index kaha se dekhte hai...kyuki sir move index jab neeche jayega toh pata lage ki nifty uper jayega
Good analysis thanks
Many thanks...glad you liked my content
@IndraanilGuha Thanks for one more fantastic video🙏 (I've seen the English version already).
After yesterday's US unemployment data there's huge spike in both long & short end of the yield curve. Wall Street Economists are not optimistic on further FED rate cuts !!
In this context, what's your view on Indian 10 Y & 2Y yield? Are you expecting massive spikes in yield in short to medium term here in India ?
Let's NOT get distracted by one month of strong data... Yes, non-farm payroll data data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the month of Dec-24 points to a strong labor market. But we have seen many instances right thru 2024 of initially reported non-farm payroll data data pointing towards a strong labor market, only for the data to be revised sharply downwards in subsequent months.
For e.g. total number of new jobs created by the US economy as per the initial data released by the BLS between Jan to Sep-24 was about 2 million jobs. However the way this works is that survey respondents who are surveyed by the BLS continue to respond to BLS up until many months after the enquiry is first initiated by BLS, and BLS continues to revise it non-farm payroll data for previous months as more and more respondents of previous months' surveys send in their responses for previous months, and as things stand, the BLS has had to revise its initial estimate of the total number of new jobs created by the US economy between Jan to Sep-24 downwards from 2 million jobs to 1.6 million jobs! That's a downward revision of almost 20%.
So let's wait for the revisions! I am NOT so sure about the job market really being as strong as the Dec data suggests
Thank you Sir
Many thanks....glad you liked the video
We request your upcoming videos in English itself… it’s helpful for everyone across the world
Yes please.Any link for videos in English
@@sivanbalakrishnan3617 English version of this video has already posted:- th-cam.com/video/6yXlX0wr-9k/w-d-xo.html
@@IndraanilGuha Lovely, really appreciate your efforts and prompt response. Keep up the great work🙏let me listen now.
Ultimate knowledge
Many thanks...glad you liked my content
Very informative video
Many thanks....glad you liked the video
This kind of knowledge on TH-cam is priceless. Hats off to the efforts 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
Many thanks for generous praise...glad you liked the video
I cashed 20% of my portfolio to buy on dip
What’s the conclusion???!
Keep 30% cash or rotate to other sectors by Investing in small quantities in every dips in MFs or ETFs or Stocks that has good valuation, like good quartely profits, reasoble P/E, reasonably priced, market competitiveness, in sectors like Healthcare/pharma, largecaps (Nifty 50), Nifty next 50, Alpha low volatility 30 index, AI ETFs (i.e. AIQ ETF in US market), Private banks and make sure to allovcate your investments in sectors after the Indian budget on 1st Feb'25.
@ thanks so much
Aapne badi achhi jankari di he. Thanks
Many thanks.. glad you liked the video
After last 02 episodes, this one appeared to me better focused for novice people like me😊
Many thanks...glad you liked my content
based on basic technicals, it seems nifty will achieve death cross in Jan 2025 end or by 1st week of feb
Happy New Year Sir
US 10 year bond index and de-dollaeisation - are they interrelated. With Brics becoming active what could be the impact?
De-dollarization refers to the phenomenon of countries around the world moving away from parking their foreign exchange reserves in US government bonds to other assets such as Gold, bonds of countries other than US, and even bitcoin.
I think the trend is real... especially, some migration towards gold has unmistakably gained strength in recent years... but it's a very slow process... I do NOT think that this is something that can potentially impact the overall investment climate, especially for retail investors in India in the near future
Best channel
Many thanks....glad you liked my content
Excellent video…
Many thanks...glad you liked my content
Thanks
Many thanks....glad you liked the content
Thanks for info in Hindi
Sir maine lumsum around 23500 par 17 lacs ka invest kiya hai mutual fund main ab market niche hai to bahut loss dikha raha hai kya ab main bech kar bahar nikal jaun please guide
Keep 30% cash or rotate to other sectors by Investing in small quantities in every dips in MFs or ETFs or Stocks that has good valuation, like good quartely profits, reasoble P/E, reasonably priced, market competitiveness, in sectors like Healthcare/pharma, largecaps (Nifty 50), Nifty next 50, Alpha low volatility 30 index, AI ETFs (i.e. AIQ ETF in US market), Private banks and make sure to allovcate your investments in sectors after the Indian budget on 1st Feb'25.
Sir banknifty kaha Jake rukegi
Why FII invest in US bond & then they pledge it & invest loan amount in Indian market, why don't they invest that money directly into indian market? As they must be loosing few points in extra interest on loan than interest they get from bond investment
Nice video
Many thanks....glad you liked the video
Us 10 yr bond yield will further increase may touch 5
Wow ...what a spike in likes after hindi video....just like us bond yeild spike 😅😂
Btw where does one read any comments you make between videos?…haven’t been able to find the commentary
You can check the "Community" section of my channel for any post that I make from time to time between my videos
Sirji, thanks hindi main banae ke liye🎉🎉🎉
Many thanks...glad you liked video
Waa Hindi may sunte hue and samaj ne may bad he alag hai...
Many thanks...glad you liked the video
Thank you : great insights as usual
Many thanks...glad you liked my content
Hindi vow thank you sir
Many thanks...glad you liked the video
Pls dont repeat the earlier video and try to show it as a new video. The later content in the video is picked up from your old video. Even the data for Move index is for the month of November 24.
My investments in Mutual funds have gone on the Red minus figure. It's making me jittery as my hard earned money is depreciating. Kindly suggest should i redeem it with a minimal loss to invest later once the market recovers. Please suggest as i get sleepless nights worrying.
Equity market is for 10 year horizon. If you don't sleep well redeem and keep in FD. Never invest in equity market
Waiting for urgent next video 😊
Don't you think RRP is already too low? Should this be considered almost zero now?
Yes I do
sir please make a seperate channel for hindi videos. you will have 2 channels with good subscribers
Sir most of the video is the same as the last one
Superb
Many thanks...glad you liked my content
Nifty can consolidate for some months! Crash is not possible!
Great
Many thanks...glad you liked my content
Reminds me of Ekta Kapoor serials. Repeating same things, wasting half of the time in new videos revisiting already covered topics everytime. Then again sharing same content in hindi.