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True story; Newton was sitting under the now famous apple tree due to being 'bumped' off the 'Express' donkey cart, and having to wait for the 'local'. 😄

so is the mjo the middle linebacker or you? it seems big and unmovable but you keep referring to it as a hostage... great update!

Absolutely horrendous pattern for Central Nebraska. Not one flake of snow. Setting records for no snow accumulation, and it rolls on. Yuck.

Wait... the gulf of Alaska had turned warm? Is that as a result of the flatter jet stream pattern? Does that mean things are going to change in the high plains (SW NE), soon?

Ha ha! TH-cam printed “Mohamed” Illinois

How do I get this emailed to me like in the past?? Thanks in advance.

Thanks Eric great video. If the MJO gets out into phase 7 what do you think about the potential to get the polar vortex over the NA continent around mid January? Models show very similar appearance to Jan of 13’/14’ with maybe some deep cold air to tap in later on January and beyond. It’s very far in the forecast but we haven’t discussed the Polar Vortex or some analogs so I’d figure I would ask!

Modoki LA NINA 3.4

Very weak LA NINA likely OR ENSO NEUTRAL LA Nada likely this season ERIC SNODGRASS. Happy holidays. East Coast USA should be ready for very exciting winter

Saving a link to your 300mb Jet Stream map, it names it Nutrien's Weather Maps and it also does not give it an icon. This weather page is a monumental effort :o)

What are your thoughts on a wet late winter to early Spring then go over to significant ridging heat and dry? Possible 2012 repeat?

The MJO should be moving out of phase 5,6 in the next couple of weeks. The Philippines transition to their dry season soon which will last until May. January is a nice time in the Philippines with cooler temps, and dry days. The MJO could simply move further south, but a lot of the time there is a delay in the return of heavy precipitation in the area even into Indonesia.

Morning Eric, why is it when you are showing the MGO others are showing going into face six and seven possible eight and when you show it, it’s all different

thanks for the update, hope you have a good weekend!!!!!!! P. S. Santa and I put a little package in the mail for you!!!!!!!!!

Thanks Eric ..u make my day ..

Thanks for the videos guys! I use the info daily (especially around harvest) for decision making at a grain facility in Dana, IN. I appreciate the attention to detail and consistency!

Awesome video Eric. 👍😊

While we (Fargo) may have an urban heat island and it may be from the extra people, the actual reason is, it’s because of the warmth of everyone’s heart who lives here!! What other reason could there be?! 🤔😃 Actually our low this morning was only -12, one of the warmer temps in the area.

Hey Eric, Southwest Wisconsin here! I so enjoy your detailed videos, great work and thank you for all of the time and energy you put into them. Yes, we are in a much drier and colder pattern… for now. Having lived my whole life in the Midwest (Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin), I can definitely attest that our weather as a whole is much more unpredictable. That being said, the farmers and naturalists in my family told me as a kid that Mother Nature always balances herself. It may not be pretty at times, but she will make it happen. I would not be shocked to see our weather turn very stormy in late January and stay that way through Spring. Some of our worst Midwest snowstorms/blizzards have occurred well into winter.

the "Heavier" snowfall near Aberdeen, SD was QUITE the little snow squall on the 10th... visibility right after sunset was about 300' to see oncoming headlights near Columbia, SD. an hour of intense winds and snow then clear skies immediately after. Typical Dakotas' weather lol

My parents grew up on farms roughly midway between Stump Lake and Grand Forks. Every summer in the 60's we would go there to visit relatives. I distinctly remember a sign on the Fargo McDonalds that read, "More than 3 million sold." Also one year when a "gas war" brought the price at the pump to $.19/gal. As a proposed history of the area, I have a book called, "The Last Kings of Norse America - Runestone Keys to a Lost Empire." The well-credentialed authors contend that the Medieval Greenland colonists, who flourished there for centuries, conducted trade with the plains Indians via the Hudson Bay-Nelson River-Lake Winnipeg-Red River sailing route. This trade was with Norway on the other end of it with North American furs and other products. With the onset of the Little Ice Age, the Greenlanders disappeared and the trade to Norway ended. In 1354 King Magnus of Norway commissioned an expedition to Greenland to find the fate of these people. (A translation of the order is in the Smithsonian) Nothing is known of the results of this order, but this book proposes how it might have played out. It also proposes a solution to the Kensington Runestone that makes sense other than simply dismissing it as a hoax. It would also help explain the anomaly of the Mandan Indians. Back then the Red River Valley was a glacial lake probably all the way to the Laurentian Divide, and navigating this route in Norwegian knarrs, carrying smaller boats to embark at York Factory would not be greatly problematic. There are 14 old churches, (now ruins) on Greenland and their old cemeteries, with tree roots growing right through the buried bodies in some cases, are now permanently frozen. Whatever the truth is, it is a fascinating book and you can read the reviews on Amazon and elsewhere.

ERIC SNODGRASS my friend happy holidays to you and your family from Chambersburg Pennsylvania. Very busy times for you? What is your winter outlook for East Coast USA updated as LA Nada or very weak brief LA NINA likely. Arctic regions record SNOWPACK and icepacks. MJO is one to watch NOW. 1.5" snow ❄️❄️ here in Chambersburg pa for the season, not much. Hoping for the long term heat later December through March

Excuse me, do you think southeast Michigan could see any severe thunderstorms next week? 😰 Sorry for asking, I have very bad storm anxiety...

Once again great video! Eric and Matt I really appreciate you guys. We recovered a good bit of moisture here in central VA apps. So that was awesome! Have a good day guys.

Thanks for teaching me.

Why does it seem like there is a background state of the MJO living in 4-5-6, Easterlies, and drier patter over the US? When do you think we break up the chain and which one will do it, it’s not like La Niña is dominating either. It feels like an anomaly when the MJO gets into 8-1-2. Maybe La Niña is stronger than models/ocean temps give it credit?

Thanks of Brazil

Love your daily videos Eric! I registered for your webinar but was unable to attend when it was live. Do you have a recording you could share? Thanks!

At the 21:00 mark, you stated that you think the MJO will get to phase 8. After that, you explained all of the reasons why it won't. Everything I listened to says that it will continually stay in the warm phases. Do you really think it will ever get to phase 8, or is that a pipe dream that needs to be squelched?

thanks for the report, if I recall correctly last year when you were in the Dakotas you did not even need a jacket!!!!!

Love your Show so in-depth. .Your an hour South of Home for me in Winnipeg. If you ever come up Portage and Main can be the coldest place on the Planet with the Wind Chill. -31 C without the Wind this morning.

We have a couple living Alaska around Denali. They had -35° high with -41°low last week. I wouldn't bet against AI model next week.😊

Pattern has been stuck since late November till now with MJO in phase 5. We go from one dry pattern into another. Most of this year has been really inactive here in the Eastern Ozarks of Missouri. Just hope we get these rains coming in the future days ahead. Have not seen a white Christmas in years. This is not true Midwest weather at all.

Damn I thought Cher already left the country. She lyin like a dawg. All seriousness I hope everyone stays safe.

please expand maps so we can read detail when possible

LRC is the North American driver, you guys need to at least hear it out. The pattern is the same and keeps cycling, we are now in the quieter "October" part of the pattern. JAN will be the Novermber part of the pattern and thats a slam dunk! Central plains will have a very active middle to end of Jan as that NOV part cylces back through and the MJO Has nothing to do with that.

AND MESSAGE TO ALL YOU TUBE CHANNELS, WE DO HAVE A CLIMATE CRISIS AND CLIMATE EMERGENCY DECLARED FOR EAST COAST USA DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND LACK OF CONSISTENT EAST COAST WINTERS NON EXISTENT FOR MANY YEARS

Christmas Eve and day, 65-75 degrees guarantee bet. January through March guarantee extreme heat

WINTER'S GRAND FINALE FOR COLD THIS WEEK ONLY. LATER DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH EXTREME HEAT LIKELY HERE IN CHAMBERSBURG PA. BECAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE!!!! CLIMATE CHANGE IS LARGEST NEMESIS FOR OUR EXISTENCE. 13-0 NOW VS SO CALLED EXPERTS. BECAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE, EAST COAST WINTERS NON EXISTENT FOR MANY YEARS AND SNOW SOON TO BE THING OF THE PAST, AND WILL NEVER EXPERIENCE ANY TRUE CLASSIC EAST COAST WINTERS EVER AGAIN ALSO!! MESSAGE TO ALL YOU TUBE CHANNELS; NEXT 6 YEARS HUGE RIDGE EAST COAST USA AND TROUGHS WEST COAST THROUGH 2030. WE ARE SO INVINCIBLE AND PERFECT WE HAVE NOTHING TO BE WORRIED EVER! EAST COAST USA WINTERS NON EXISTENT AND SNOW VERY RARE. WE WILL NEVER EXPERIENCE ANY TRUE CLASSIC EAST COAST WINTERS EVER! BLAME ON CLIMATE CHANGE 😢😢.,

Great - thanks for filling in - appreciate a few minutes of West coast focus on the break since last big rains - starting the cycle of storms in coming weeks... Webinar was great and fun - hope you do more... (monthly?)

Interesting MJO discussion.

I don't trust forecasting by the MJO- it (the MJO) has a bad habit of 'disappearing' for months on end as a useful forecast tool, especially here in the northeast. From now through March, I'm looking at the AO and its wobbles and splits to tell me what I want to know 2-4 weeks from now. The biggest problem is with the (strengthening?) La Nina- jumpy La Nina's tend to give us real 'craps shoot' winters. Also (and this will sound racist), in my experience any Chinese research deserves *extra special* scrutiny before acceptance as fact. Waaay too many garbage papers coming from that direction to be trusted whole heartedly.

Thank you for filling in. You and Eric make a great team!

Thanks Matt! Great deep dive on end of December. Here in central VA apps I’m hoping for colder end of December and into January. I appreciate all you and Eric do.

thanks for the update, well done!!!!

@ 4:50 . . . What does "3km" mean in the NAM 42hr precipitation forecast? Does it have to do with the resolution or what? When I google it I see 12km 20km and 40km as well.

i registered for the webinar but couldn't attend, am i going to get the webinar sent to my email ?

Are you still doing Australia only forecasting?