Thank you for not being another TH-cam clickbait met. No sensationalist thumbnails and hype like the rest of the guys here are doing. Just good ole honest forecasting.
@ 12:52 . . . but the anomaly years are interesting as well. :o) Not for forecasting but just to see how many there were. How many years dont fit the model? How many years did California get lots of rain in an La Niña year? I guess it's easy to find . . . Google AI says *"California has experienced wet years during La Niña years, including 2011, 2017, and 2023. However, there is no consistent connection between La Niña and precipitation in California."*
Over 8 feet of snowfall over the northwest part of my county off Lake Ontario in the last two weeks, but only 30" at my place in the northeast corner. West winds bring ours, but most of this year has from the northwest. Usually the flow is from the W-WSW; this year's pattern only comes every 5-7 years or so.
Thanks for all you do, it's extremely rare for both models to be forecasting snow here in SE Texas. Houston does not do well in these types of storms...
question about the MJO...it seems the extended forecast is always pulling it into null territory, but it then keeps moving...is that just a recent thing or is it a model issue not being able to accurately predict it past about 10-14 days?
Ready for extreme heat likely 70s-80s projected for East Coast USA end of January through March. Yes/ NO?? One grand finale next week of snow and cold for us. Snow likely Sunday PM and Monday am. February through March wintry weather here in Chambersburg pa and Hagerstown MD or spring weather @ Eric SNODGRASS my friend?? Happy weekend and NEW YEAR' 😮😊🎉❤
Mesa, Az....Woke up to Day 147 without measurable rainfall and noticed ground was a little damp.....trace of rain perhaps? Does that officially snap the dry streak?
@@ConduitAg , I thought that too. But I saw more dampness on the roads on my way to work as well. My rain gage at home had .00 when I woke up, so it was not enough to measure.
Ya, the weather in NorCal Sierra has been pretty boring. First time in memory that we haven't had a lick of snow by January. Sunny and chilly here at mid elevations.
I do not. I have numerous reasons backed up by peer reviewed literature, but the primary conclusion is that solar cycles are not a primary control of temperature and precipitation pattern. Do they have an impact - yes - but the correlations are very weak. We've had drought form at all parts (peaks and valleys) of the solar cycle. Great question!
Thank you for not being another TH-cam clickbait met. No sensationalist thumbnails and hype like the rest of the guys here are doing. Just good ole honest forecasting.
Awesome video. 😊👍
Great video as always! Thanks for your time and insight. Hope you and Matt have a great day
thank you too!
thanks for the update, hope you have a good weekend!!!!!!
Thanks, Dan! You too.
Eric, long range models show arctic shots end of January through February
@ 12:52 . . . but the anomaly years are interesting as well. :o) Not for forecasting but just to see how many there were. How many years dont fit the model? How many years did California get lots of rain in an La Niña year? I guess it's easy to find . . . Google AI says *"California has experienced wet years during La Niña years, including 2011, 2017, and 2023. However, there is no consistent connection between La Niña and precipitation in California."*
Hey Eric. Any Australian forecast that I can access?
Over 8 feet of snowfall over the northwest part of my county off Lake Ontario in the last two weeks, but only 30" at my place in the northeast corner.
West winds bring ours, but most of this year has from the northwest. Usually the flow is from the W-WSW; this year's pattern only comes every 5-7 years or so.
Thanks for all you do, it's extremely rare for both models to be forecasting snow here in SE Texas. Houston does not do well in these types of storms...
This winter (in Tennessee) harks back to the early 80s.
question about the MJO...it seems the extended forecast is always pulling it into null territory, but it then keeps moving...is that just a recent thing or is it a model issue not being able to accurately predict it past about 10-14 days?
Ready for extreme heat likely 70s-80s projected for East Coast USA end of January through March. Yes/ NO?? One grand finale next week of snow and cold for us. Snow likely Sunday PM and Monday am. February through March wintry weather here in Chambersburg pa and Hagerstown MD or spring weather @ Eric SNODGRASS my friend?? Happy weekend and NEW YEAR' 😮😊🎉❤
Mesa, Az....Woke up to Day 147 without measurable rainfall and noticed ground was a little damp.....trace of rain perhaps? Does that officially snap the dry streak?
hmmm. Maybe it was the sprinkler system...
@@ConduitAg , I thought that too. But I saw more dampness on the roads on my way to work as well. My rain gage at home had .00 when I woke up, so it was not enough to measure.
Ya, the weather in NorCal Sierra has been pretty boring. First time in memory that we haven't had a lick of snow by January. Sunny and chilly here at mid elevations.
right - your region was hit hard in Nov and Dec and then January has been a complete dud.
MJO phase 3 and 4 adios winter storm opportunities for ever again?
Not looking forward to the cold blast coming. Locally the wind chills could be -40°F.
Drought watch: Mexico’s 2025 dry season could last 6 long months
MND Staff January 8, 2025
2025=Gleissberg Cycle =Epic drought. Do meteorologists buy into it?
I do not. I have numerous reasons backed up by peer reviewed literature, but the primary conclusion is that solar cycles are not a primary control of temperature and precipitation pattern. Do they have an impact - yes - but the correlations are very weak. We've had drought form at all parts (peaks and valleys) of the solar cycle. Great question!
Thank you for dispelling these ridiculous notions. Twitter has become such a cesspool
I’ve never been on Twitter, but as an Ag producer, I’ve been reading about it since 2020.