Don’t give Maryland too much credit. Its athletic department was insolvent and on the edge of cutting programs when it received a B1G lifeline with its stability and eventual windfall of new revenue. It was a no-brainer of a decision. Affinity for tradition and the ACC was only worth so much.
They were broke and poorly mismanaged. They are Arizona/Washington State with better demographics and location. That's all they are. Nothing genius about them.
@@zplapplap But they were successfully able to identify the problem and proactively execute a plan to repair it. If anything that shows competent leadership, which many schools unfortunately don't have.
@@zplapplap I agree and Maryland Debbie Yow to thank for not balancing the budget and blowing through the rainy day funds… and I agree with the other comment… Maryland knew it couldn’t sustain things as they were, eliminated programs, and smartly negotiated the agreement with Big 10
The SEC and B1G will be P2 football conferences that also plays BB. The B12 will be the P1 MBB conference that also plays some pretty good football. It’s the only way we can stay competitive
Someone please point to any TV ratings metric where UNC football is a better draw than FSU or Clemson...or even VT, Louisville, NCST, Miami. Tar Heel football is an afterthought - and with streaming services becoming the dominant player for showing games, adding new "markets" isn't the driver it once was.
Cable isn’t completely dead yet. Even if UNC never meets its potential on the football field, getting the Big10 or SEC network into a growing state on the edge of each conferences geographical footprint. UNC is also a great academic school which gets support from the conferences university, and basketball doesn’t hurt. But I agree, it still seems like a stretch to value them more than the other ACC options
I’ve been saying this for ages. If u get 8 teams to vote to dissolve the conference (before cal, SMU, and stanfords voting rights kick in) there would be no fee to leave. The top 8-10 ACC teams without the dead weight would be a decent football conference, and while not bringing in as much money as Big 10 or SEC, would be a lot better than the current ACC. My guess is the conference would get paid almost as much in this smaller form as they are paid now, they would just have way less mouths to feed. There are less games for the broadcaster, but what you are cutting out are football games with the likes of Syracuse, BC, Wake, Duke, Virginia, SMU, Cal and Stanford that have really low viewership. Plus the remaining better football brands will play each other more often so those teams have better games to broadcast. These remaining teams that reform a smaller ACC won’t make as much as being in the B1G or SEC, but as it stands now leaving the ACC is expensive and they probably wouldn’t get full revenue shares even if they could get in the power 2. So this leaner ACC may be the best financial option at least in the short term. You may also keep relatively easy access to the playoff. Being the second best team in this smaller ACC is probably gonna be a lot easier than being the 4th best team in the SEC for example so it’s an easier path the the playoff. The league is small enough where you can do a round robin also. Maybe do some uneven revenue sharing to help the top teams stay competitive with the power 2 such as let teams keep their bowl/home conference championship/playoff revenue. In this scenario I imagine Notre Dame comes alone for the ride as a non-football member and continues to play their 5 non-conference games with ACC teams rather than give up independence
Still say the best way would be ACC and Big12 form a new conference (so no one wins) after the few go to the other 2. Combine TV money and have 3 equally funded conferences.
So who exactly is buying that media deal? The media deal wouldn't be any better than they are getting now from ESPN, which is why some teams want to leave. If some teams leave and are replaced with smaller schools, then you get even less money, that's if you could find someone to broadcast them in the first place. You don't want to be the only conference with 100% of your games on a streaming service like Apple TV or something.
@@terrywilcox8913 the tv networks set the amounts they pay out. Just because some schools decide to merge or form a conference doesn’t mean the tv networks would somehow be made to pay more for said conference or conferences.
I don't think it's possible. There isn't enough teams with real value left over to form a conference that could keep up with the TV dollars the SEC and Big Ten command.
As TV contracts expire, big brands will flock to the new Super League which will offer unequal revenue sharing. Dead weight schools are the albatross that will lead to the B1G and SEC dissolving themselves.
@@matthewhuszarik4173 That'a what I'm saying.... however, the SEC is worth more than the Big 10 as football is the big money maker. The TV viewership is much better across the SEC schools vs the Big 10.
@@WeSRT4 You have absolutely no understanding of the TV business. The value of advertising is dependent on the numbers, the disposable income of viewers, and the propensity of the viewers to be influenced by advertising. The SEC advertising revenue from their games will never be close to the Big 10. While a higher percentage of southerners watch college football that doesn’t matter what matters is absolute number which the Big 10 leads and will lead even more with the four new additions, but even more importantly is the income of the average Big 10 viewer is far greater than the average SEC viewer.
Its possible, there is several variables to forming another conference, maybe a 'reformed' ACC. Get rid of the current commissioner, Grant of Rights, and the TV contracts and start over. The 3 schools that might be running scared is Stanford, Cal., and SMU.
I think Wake and BC are peeing their pants right now. Maybe a few others. Why would Syracuse and GA Tech be more appealing than programs like Stanford and Cal that were rejected after the Pac12 fallout? LOTS of ACC schools are freaking out!
The problem with live show on Wednesday & Sunday is the variable starting times, 7:30 pm central to 8 :25 central, average starting time is around 8:10 central. Cannot get my IPad to ring the bell so I have to manually check in.
The market has already crafted the outcome of realignment. The Super 2 own the mass market, excluding individual team loyalties, and will drive the sport going forward. College football will resemble English soccer with the Premier League of dominant teams with a second and third tier comprised of the non-national brands.
Dellenger's points contradict. If the networks don't have the money to add FSU and Clemson to the top conferences. How would they have the money to pay a brand new conference? It would be cheaper and more financially beneficial to have FSU, Clemson, UNC, and UVA in those top 2 and add the next tier to the Big 12. It would've made a lot more sense before the new CFP deal. But it doesn't now.
I don't think ESPN will have a problem, they won't be paying the ACC anymore. The B1G though, that might be a problem as Fox just bumped up that deal and won't be keen on doing it again. I do agree though, trying to create a new conference makes zero sense.
I can envision that FSU and Clemson go through that whole exercise of leaving and then forming a new conference and still end up with a tv contract that pays them 30 to 40 million a year. Where’s the benefit? They’d actually lose money on it if they have to fork out a large exit fee to leave and then begin their own conference. It doesn’t look viable at all.
Any of those ACC school's first choice if they can leave the ACC has to be to join either the BIG or SEC. Forming a new conference would pay them less than the ACC currently does. The fact FSU and Clemson have both sued the ACC tells me they feel confident they already have a landing spot in the BIG or SEC.
As for the "additive" argument - rank the current "football brands" in the B10 and SEC -- then ask yourself if FSU or Clemson would fall into the top half of the rankings for each conference. If the determination is "yep, top half", then the program would be "additive".
This past year, Clemson would have been 11th in the SEC for viewership and 8th in the B1G. FSU would have been 4th in the SEC and 3rd in the B1G. Both programs are top 15 in viewership over extended periods, so they make the cut. It gets tricky after that considering teams will likely be added in pairs. UNC football numbers are absolutely brutal. Miami and Louisville are respectable, but far from great. An FSU/Miami combo would be very similar to USC/UCLA.
I have made the point that FSU, Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia, Virginia Tech could join Notre Dame and form a conference with NBC as the broadcast network
What does a school like Pitt really add though? Have you seen most of their home games? They bring in a few hundred fans if the weather is decent. They also rent a stadium. They only can get people to watch if they play WVU or PSU. Does a Pitt/WVU game really add that much value above the current B12 average?
The ACC major powers will all go to the SEC. It's a matter of ESPN moving all ACC funding to the SEC. Those funds are then essentially split between the major powers.
That's what I've been saying, the timing of all this lines up for ESPN to just move some ACC teams to the SEC and then toss a few crumbs to the big12 to take a few more and let the rest scatter. The timing is terrible for expansion in the B1G, Fox just bumped up the media deal less than a year ago and it's doubtful they add anything else till the next media deal in 2030. The B1G has an escalation clause in it's current media for expansion, but it only names Notre Dame.
@@roris5882 UNC will be joining the SEC if and when they leave the ACC. Texas A&M is SEC through and through. You did get FSU and ND correct, at some point in the future.
It would be great but if FSU did what they did to the ACC, what happens in the future if their new conference pisses them off and they sue to leave that one? What happens to WVU? Consider it like dating a cheater!
I thought this too, and he’s probably wrong that Louisville wouldn’t be included, Pitt too. The “fat” is all the privates, who in fairness to them have done the best they could excluding Miami.
I appreciate the commentary! I’m not sure we can call it a P4 even if this situation happens. The gap between the SEC/BIG10 and the Big12 is still significant. 4 is an arbitrary number. The top two conferences are the Big10/SEC and it would take one hell of a Frankenstein conference to match their revenue. That being said, I’d like to see the Big12 make a run at this power notion with some ACC teams, but we’ll see.
A bit off topic, but I like the way John Kurtz admits a big 12 bias all the time. I wish more political news media would do that and not pretend to be objective.
Shouldn't the BIG12 strategy be to bring in as many of the best football and basketball programs from the ACC. It seems like by doing that, the BIG12 would continue getting stronger to compete with BIG10 and SEC in athletic power, more wins and better TV audience.
Yes, if any ACC schools want to join the big12 and pay their own way, the big12 would take them. You see it's about money, do you think ESPN will give the big12 enough money to add schools at a full share, cause I don't! If they don't, existing members of the big12 would have to take less money than they do now to assist the new teams. That's not likely, so how does the big12 come up with the money or do the new ACC take less, like half shares? Would it be worth it for ACC schools to move for a half share?
@@troywest7045 You're exactly right. It's going to be hard for the B12 to add 8 more schools at the current rate. Who from the ACC honestly adds real and meaningful value to the B12? That means value above the current average rate. Pitt is one of the top names I keep hearing. They rent a football stadium and have games where only a few hundred people show up. Their games will be a ghost town when they are not playing WVU. Where is the value in that? You really think Pitt will be able to sell tickets to a game against BYU or Arizona, seriously?
So many crazy things that can still happen. All eyes will be on the cours now to see if these ACC power schools can get out of the ACC GOR or will they get a negotiated settlement price.
It would be less games to broadcast, but u r only missing out on games with smaller brands that nobody cares about. The remaining smaller number of games are better because the bigger brands r playing each other more often. The total paid by somebody like ESPN would probably be less but possibly not way less. Then splitting that amount with 8-10 teams instead of 18 makes the money go a lot further
I think you hit the nail on the head right there.... He alluded to it in his video... None of these teams are going to want to take less money.... Yeah they're going to want these teams but like he said who is going to want to have less money just so they can have more teams?
While it is morbidly interesting to debate these potential outcomes... If the money is now capped by ESPN and FOX and NBC and CBS won't pay, It might just be too late for the ACC schools to do better than they are now as a package for the next few years. if the ACC is such an anchor, then following a Notre Dame model for the top 4/5 brands (independent football) may be the only real alternative in the near term. Play four games against SEC teams, play four vs B1G and round it out against each other and any traditional rivalries. Stay in the ACC for BB and olympic sports.
UNC has said very clearly that they want out. There leaving does not spell the end of the ACC - the question is how many of the others will have homes. Right now there are only 3 with homes, UNC included.
Almost a leaner but meaner ACC with the expectation that some programs will eventually become p2 and others would seek safe shores in the XII. Florida State Clemson West Virginia Miami Louisville Virginia Tech Oklahoma State North Carolina NC State Notre Dame Pittsburgh Virginia
The only way FSU and Clemson leaves the ACC is if an eighth member votes for the conference to dissolve and there is no way that is going to happen. You are asking a school to vote to have their means of income cut off with no where to go.
John I’m very happy I found your channel and believe you’re a very bright guy. However in terms of your argument here, your entire supposition is supported on the assumption that existing SEC / B10 Members would agree to a smaller share if ESPN is unwilling to add additional state revenue…which I don’t believe they will. If “said brands” offered the assumed additional value then ESPN (not being stupid) would step in and offer to renegotiate early like they did in the case of the B12. Now… do I believe FSU, Clemson & NC are exceptional brands? Yes I do. But that list stops there as the remaining schools are like “fillers” in good cigars. They’re all different but some are better than others but cost the same price. I do luv the realignment speculation as it gives all of us something to ponder, worry and cream & shout about and I…. LUV IT! 🤙
I’ve been saying this too. Good point. Although, I think the whole AAU thing is overrated from an educational standpoint. But it still holds weight for most.
There are zero options to create a Power 3 or 4. It's a Power 2 now. The top brands have been consolidated. There is not enough left to build anything significant.
Yup, even if they cut 4 to 8 bottom feeders out of the ACC, each member would only earn about $5-$10M more. Plus cutting out teams means their TV network will have less content to televise and that makes them less valuable.
@@roris5882 Yeah, it would almost have to be an Apple type deal. I'm not signing up for Apple to watch Florida State and NC State. That's a hard no thanks.
That is no doubt true in the short term. But if the new Power Conference embraces a policy of unequal revenue sharing and if the new Power conference avoids adding weak brands, it’s going to be too much of a draw to the strongest brands in CFB. The SEC & B1G will find it impossible to prevent their strongest brands from bolting to the new Power conference.
@@terencebaca1990 That's a great point. There will likely come a time when these super conferences get blown up and we go back to a more regional model. We could have had that if conferences like the PAC and B12 were more willing to bend over for schools like Texas and USC. Give a team like USC two shares of the conference if they are being the sugar daddies. All kinds of what if scenarios and who knows what happens in the more long term future.
I think the big brands in the ACC will end up in the B1G and SEC (UNC, Duke, Virginia, Miami, FSU, and Clemson). The rest of the ACC will join the Big 12. The Big 12 is gonna have to adopt a nationwide model where they have teams from all over the country to make themselves financially competitive with the new Super 2
Although unlikely,a conference comprised of the Magnificant 7 schools plus GT plus,dare I say Notre Dame,would be a very marketable football conference.
The best of the ACC and the Big 12 need to merge. They would still be less than the SEC and Big 10 but they would have more draw than either the ACC or the Big 12.
I've been hearing for quite a while that FSU adds or equals value for B1G, and Clemson adds or equals value for SEC, meanwhile apparently UNC adds or equals value for either B1G/SEC. So expect them to defect. Once these defect do not expect anything different than what happened to PAC... so next level teams (i.e. Louisville, etc) would much rather make better money in New Big XII.
The PAC was much different because of size. It's a very different situation. The ACC is currently sitting at 18 teams. They could lose the top 4 and still be sitting at 14. Even if the B12 takes 4, they are still sitting at 10. They could easily backfill at that point and make something that looks very similar to the B12. The B12 will probably need to take 8 teams from the ACC to force them down to G6 status. Is the B12 prepared to take 8 teams?
@@KeepChoppin Oh I fully believe ACC will back fill with PAC2 and remain an A4 conference though much less without top 8 brands but will be no where similar to Big XII. Right now with Top ACC Brands ACC got less revenue last two years than Big XII. Once Top 8 are gone their revenue will be closer to that of the G5 than the Big XII. Big XII does not want ACC to completely implode. 8 P5 teams made up of at least 4 original ACC schools + Calford + PAC2 would be enough to maintain A4 status according to Autonomous bylaws.
@@patrickboren2211 The B12 would certainly be higher on the list, but consider a conference as shown below. I think it would be much closer to the B12 than the G6. It would be much more formidable than you think, in my opinion. Boston College Notre Dame Syracuse Wake Forest Duke Georgia Tech Virginia SMU California Stanford Oregon State Washington State South Florida Tulane Memphis UConn
@@KeepChoppin The G5 additions of Tulane, Memphis and UCONN will each have to be waived by the Media partner as equal or additive to conference revenue.. ND may not be there, but maybe (not really a FB member) Virginia is expected to be a target of either B1G or SEC, not sure they will be there either. Still WF, Duke, GATech, SMU, Calford, PAC2 are still 8 valid teams to keep their status. Of course negotiating with ESPN is always there when it comes to adding those good G5 programs. I believe all three are outstanding.
Ross Dellenger is absolutely right! The new Power conference is Phase 1 of the eventual 32-team Super League. It won’t happen right away, but as TV contracts expire, the top brands will flock to the new Super Conference that offers unequal revenue sharing.
@@K-StateScottFL Blueblood schools probably will put a stop to more than 32 teams in their Super League. More than 32 means more mouths to feed and smaller TV payouts for every school in the league. 6-8 blueblood schools will have all the leverage to get their way on everything in the Super League.
@@NA.NA.. And UCF will be just fine in the new BIG12. The concept here is to drop lower value members, and UCF is counter to that. On the other hand, DUKE is a big brand and preserves the UNC/DUKE unique asset. Frankly, WVU doesn't fit brand and is unlikely, but my measure here is feasible.
@@tarheel7406UCF is the the largest school, and the third biggest brand in our nation's third biggest state to suggest a small private school in NC is better is ridiculous. I know all about the lack of wvus brand thats why I ranked them 9 out of 12 lol
FSU contacted Big10 along with Maryland but didn’t get in due to not being an AAU school. ACC then raised exit fee. FSU had to sign it because they cannot get in Big10 or SEC.
@@trclark7689 I remembered at the time, FSU wanted to build its own College of Engineering because their AAU application was hindered by FAMU/FSU COE. They even leveled the Alumni Village for the new FSU COE. But it was blocked by legislatures. Til this day, the Alumni Village is still a huge empty lot. So Big 10 was definitely FSU’s first choice. Now, B1G says AAU is not a requirement and also FSU is one step away from becoming an AAU member.
@@jamesw4445I agree that AAU status is coming. I wouldn’t be surprised if FSU gains AAU this year, but it’s not something you can apply for. If having a shared Engineering school with FAMU is a deterrent for AAU selection, then I’d just rather not be an AAU member. FAMU deserves to have a quality engineering school too, at least that’s my opinion.. 🤷🏼♂️
The future is hopeless for the B1G/SEC as their TV contracts expire. Their albatross is numerous weak brands and a policy of equal revenue sharing. All of it spells doom in the long run. This new Power conference is Phase 1 of the eventual 32-Team Super League. The new Power conference will embrace a policy of unequal revenue sharing. Weak brands will not be allowed into the new Power conference. Big brands will flock to the new Power conference. The SEC/B1G will find it impossible to compete and impossible to retain their big brands.
Yes, start a conference with nothing but weak brands, then expect the biggest brands to flock there and then deny weak brands from joining. This sounds like a great plan, good luck with that.
@@troywest7045 Weak brands? Why would FSU start a conference with weak brands from the ACC? The new Power Conference is going to consist of: - FSU - Miami - North Carolina - Virginia - Clemson - Georgia Tech - Stanford - Notre Dame
@@terencebaca1990 That's the ACC minus a few schools, the same conference that's falling behind the power 2 conferences. You think by trimming the fat of a failing conference not only would it get a comparable media deal that would insure it's survival, but the top schools in the SEC and B1G would leave their security and history to join this fledgling conference? Ohhhhh k. Good luck with that.
@@troywest7045 Current B1G and SEC schools are locked in to their current media contracts. So no school is going to bolt until 2030 and 2034. But it will certainly happen because the Super League will be too good to pass up for big brands looking to maximize their TV revenue. ESPN will be in full support of the Super League because it will crush all other media competitors, including FOX. The B1G and SEC will not survive. Too many small brands in those conferences. Those small brands are a drag on TV revenue for the blueblood schools. Also, the policy of equal revenue sharing is something that the blueblood schools will be glad to leave behind. But don't take my word for it. See the recent article written by Ross Dellenger on all of this.
I am sure that getting into the Florida market gives FSU special value to the B1G. With FSU, in addition to going from NYC to Chicago to LA (as TV execs have exclaimed, the B1G would go from NYC to FL to LA to Washington. Beyond that FSU does have major TV ratings, so it is not really a charity case. The comment that the existing B1G schools are not going to take a pay cut to add new members is almost certainly true, Clemson must have some clue where it is going, which could be the Big 12. Unclear if Clemson has a home in the B1G or SEC, though they might. Miami is really questionable. See no chance for SEC and only to the B1G if FSU does not come there. If the NC schools stay in the ACC, so will the two VA schools. Even without FSU and Clemson, the ACC will survive in a diminished status. As others have said, Wake, BC, and Syracuse really have no other option than a diminished ACC and GaTech is in about the same mess. Those schools are facing possible G5 status in football. In theory, Stanford, Cal and SMU (?) could rejoin with OrState and WaState, into a modified PAC. They might keep P4/5 status, but still not earn that much.
I have yet to see an FSU fan explain how the B1G is gonna pay FSU and whoever comes with them. Y'all think there is just a pile of cash laying around to give to new schools? The B1G has an escalation clause in it's media for expansion, but that's just for Notre Dame. Anybody else would have to be paid by Fox declines they will have to ship that content around. Fox bumped up the media deal less than a year ago to add Washington/Oregon, they might not want to add anything else till the next media deal in 2030, if that's the case the probably try streaming services. Another thing is, I doubt any team that gets added before the next media deal will have to take a partial shares.
No one seems to be talking about the ACC's TV deal with the CW.... For those of you that do not know the CW is in every Major market in the United States and its free television just like ABC NBC CBS and Fox!... Yes people are sitting back thinking, The CW?....What is that?.... Will the CW has LIV golf, NASCAR and now the exclusive network of the ACC.... CW now boasts 48 weekends of sports...Yes I know your laughing and saying it's just the CW.... Everyone said the exact same thing about Fox when they won the NFL contract!...No one is laughing now
LOL, why? The SEC continues to grow and strengthen all their member Schools. Payouts are projected to top 100 million by 2030 and that’s including all their CURRENT members. Unequal revenue has never been a long term solution or successful model.
The problem that I consistently see is an absolute lack of creativity. Why do we keep believing that we need ESPN or CBS or NBC or any of these guys? Ladies and gentlemen, these are universities with young people training to be the executives at these companies. You have all of the resources available to you at a discount why can you not buy your own airwaves and put out your own product. They won’t have product to fill their slots and they will be forced to come back and try to take it and you can choose to sell them at a premium you get discounts they don’t but it’s the lack of creativity, and the lack of leadership that everyone has come to accept, and would rather sit there and cry in their coffee, then get up and do something. I’m disgusted by how simple so many people have become.
I wonder why the SEC and Big 10 don't cut their dead weight as well? Really I just want the 24 - 30 elitist snobs to go their own way so college Football can get back to being College Football.
The big 12 is more of the Frankenstein conference with adding the 4 G5 schools and4 of the 2nd tier pac 12 schools. Big 12 honestly can't afford to add anymore schools as any bottom tier school from the Acc wouldn't be additive. They'd be slicing more of the revenue pie with any added schools. Same if Acc tried to add big 12 schools. I'm sure ESPN/fox is going to tell Acc and big 12 to merge to be viable or drop to to G7-G8 status
Nope...the SEC and Big10 have already decided THEY will be the premier conferences and everyone else will be a tier below. Wish the SEC and Big10 would cut lose the teams that are seen rrelevant year in and year out....just put the BEST up against the BEST
That won't work for ESPN, FOX, NBC, CBS, etc. The networks' sports channels have lots of viewership time that would not be filled by the few remaining top tier programs. That's why ESPN and Fox signed a new contrast with the Big 12, even if the BIG and SEC don't value any of our programs right now.
@@knightu1642 well duh...you have to have the horrible games before you get to the PRIME matchups...you let those little teams like Tech and Byu play at those early time slots that are hardly watched THEN you start playing the REAL games.
ACC signed their tv deal with ESPN which would have made it better than the Big 10 and SEC at the time. But since then, the Big 10 and SEC are being over paid for bad programs. There is no value in the Virginia schools anymore. They have not been winning. Miami don't have their own football stadium. Clemson is not winning anymore. UNC was not a strong football school anymore. Louisville, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest and FSU are winning, and those 4 are not top targets. The next tv contract with SEC and Big 10 would be less money since cord cutting is very rapid, and the people are not going to sports streaming. The best solution is that all the FBS conferences and schools should come together and decides to all do a joint media deal and do the strongest schools in each conference in tv ratings get a higher paid. That mean even schools like Boise State, Memphis, Tulane, Fresno State etc get like $30 million since they do get the ratings if they are not saddled to play the dead weights in their conferences. Schools like Duke, Wake, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Calford, Illinois, etc gets paid around $15 to $25 million as being the dead weights in their conference. It would be fair for schools in the G5 who proved that they belong in a P4 conference.
Both the B1G and SEC just signed massive media deals including those teams you deem having no value. Both the B1G and SEC are also projected to have over 100 million dollar payouts per school per year in 2030 and beyond. So much for not having any value.
@@jansonroberts2616 Do ESPN and Fox have the money by 2030 and beyond? No. The sports media market busted recently, and ESPN is losing money quicker than they are taken in. 2010, ESPN and FS1 were in much more households than they are today. Streaming services are putting all the sports into a sports package which you have to pay more money to get them. The cheapest streaming service that I found is $40 a month, and it has no ESPN and all that in it. There is no signs that the cord cutters are getting any sports apps and all that which is why ESPN + is losing money. SEC Network is losing money since they are losing subscribers to cord cutters. Same with the ACC and Big 10 Networks. That is why the Big 10 and SEC are being over paid because there would be no mother to pay all that per school by that year.
@@encycl07pedia- The problem is would the presidents from both the Big 10 and SEC wants to get less money to bring in more teams? Why give them a lifeline?
@@Spitfirethedragon You do realize they have provisions to add new teams, right? Adding better teams also gives them more leverage. Why would any conference add any teams if it just made their profits worse?
Why would the valuable ACC schools want to earn less revenue creating a new conference instead of making more revenue joining the B1G or SEC? That seems like pipe dream that Big12 fans are wishing for because if the ACC collapses and the B1G and SEC add all the valuable schools then the talent and financial gap will grow so large that the Big12 won't be taken seriously.
Well it's going to be difficult for the B1G to add anyone before 2030. They have an escalation clause in their current media deal, but it's only for Notre Dame. Any other school added to the B1G means they would need to find money to pay them, they obviously have the extra games that comes with expansion to ship, which would go to the new ACC, but Fox just bumped up the media deal less than a year ago, it's highly doubtful they are up to go it again before 2030. So after that they shop the games around, maybe Apple TV, they have been trying to get into college football, but honestly how much could they possibly get for a small library of games and FOX, CBS, NBC, get first dibs on games each week, so no marquee matchups. It would be wishful thinking that would generate even a half share for new schools. After that the only thing the B1G could do is take less themselves to offset the difference. That scenario isn't likely, just because when has a school or schools taken considerably less money to add schools to a conference?
ESPN will probably be willing to overpay for the new Power Conference. It could crush the competition in the long run by ensuring the new Power conference embraces a policy of unequal revenue sharing. In the long run, the biggest brands will flock to this new Power conference in order to maximize their TV revenue.
@@terencebaca1990 We're talking about ESPN here, if they were in the business of over paying, the ACC wouldn't be in the position it's in. Nobody is leaving one of the power 2 conferences to join a reformatted ACC, that's not realistic.
@@troywest7045 The top bluebloods will bolt for more TV revenue in the eventual 32-Team Power Conference/Super League. Think about it. If you are Ohio State, do you want to continue to carry on your back the likes of Rutgers, Minnesota, Indiana, and Purdue? Do you want to continue to exist in a conference that embraces a policy of equal revenue sharing? Or would you rather move to a Super League that embraces unequal revenue sharing and greater TV payouts for CFB bluebloods? Of course, if you are being honest, it’s easy to predict all CFB bluebloods will flock to the Super League.
@@brianmcdaniel1760 Why would ESPN allow Notre Dame, FSU, and Clemson to bolt to the rival B1G/FOX? ESPN will do everything in its power to prevent that from happening.
This has been my objection the whole time. People keep saying that Clemson & FSU would add to the payout, but is that true? Is Clemson worth lots more than $100M, if not, adding them to the SEC/B1G doesn't make a lot of sense.
Check the ratings for Clemson match ups against past SEC opponents and same thing for FSU and you will have your answer. More of a national audience wants to watch Clemson- Georgia than watching Clemson vs Wake Forest or FSU vs Wake Forest and ESPN knows that.
The projections of 100 million dollar payouts aren’t until the 2030 season or beyond. Adds before then aren’t necessarily being held to future projections but rather current market value.
That’s why teams like FSU and Clemson are going to do everything they can to make the jump before those 100 million dollar payouts become reality rather than just future projections. Now is the time for them to make their moves.
I do find intriguing the idea of disbanding the ACC & reforming an 8 team ACC with a bigger per team ESPN payout. I doubt it would happen, but it would solve a lot of the problems they have.
Maryland looks like a genius for leaving the ACC when it did
Don’t give Maryland too much credit. Its athletic department was insolvent and on the edge of cutting programs when it received a B1G lifeline with its stability and eventual windfall of new revenue. It was a no-brainer of a decision. Affinity for tradition and the ACC was only worth so much.
They were broke and poorly mismanaged. They are Arizona/Washington State with better demographics and location. That's all they are. Nothing genius about them.
@@zplapplap But they were successfully able to identify the problem and proactively execute a plan to repair it. If anything that shows competent leadership, which many schools unfortunately don't have.
@@zplapplap I agree and Maryland Debbie Yow to thank for not balancing the budget and blowing through the rainy day funds… and I agree with the other comment… Maryland knew it couldn’t sustain things as they were, eliminated programs, and smartly negotiated the agreement with Big 10
@@roris5882 Agreed. 👍🏽
The SEC and B1G will be P2 football conferences that also plays BB. The B12 will be the P1 MBB conference that also plays some pretty good football. It’s the only way we can stay competitive
Unfortunately, you can't keep up on the football side no matter how successful you are in basketball. You're modeling the Big East
Someone please point to any TV ratings metric where UNC football is a better draw than FSU or Clemson...or even VT, Louisville, NCST, Miami.
Tar Heel football is an afterthought - and with streaming services becoming the dominant player for showing games, adding new "markets" isn't the driver it once was.
We’re still a long way off for streaming dominating live sporting events. Adding the LA schools to the B1G shows markets still have importance.
Cable isn’t completely dead yet. Even if UNC never meets its potential on the football field, getting the Big10 or SEC network into a growing state on the edge of each conferences geographical footprint. UNC is also a great academic school which gets support from the conferences university, and basketball doesn’t hurt. But I agree, it still seems like a stretch to value them more than the other ACC options
UNC a bigger draw than FSU? Dude your delusional 😮
I’ve been saying this for ages. If u get 8 teams to vote to dissolve the conference (before cal, SMU, and stanfords voting rights kick in) there would be no fee to leave. The top 8-10 ACC teams without the dead weight would be a decent football conference, and while not bringing in as much money as Big 10 or SEC, would be a lot better than the current ACC. My guess is the conference would get paid almost as much in this smaller form as they are paid now, they would just have way less mouths to feed. There are less games for the broadcaster, but what you are cutting out are football games with the likes of Syracuse, BC, Wake, Duke, Virginia, SMU, Cal and Stanford that have really low viewership. Plus the remaining better football brands will play each other more often so those teams have better games to broadcast. These remaining teams that reform a smaller ACC won’t make as much as being in the B1G or SEC, but as it stands now leaving the ACC is expensive and they probably wouldn’t get full revenue shares even if they could get in the power 2. So this leaner ACC may be the best financial option at least in the short term. You may also keep relatively easy access to the playoff. Being the second best team in this smaller ACC is probably gonna be a lot easier than being the 4th best team in the SEC for example so it’s an easier path the the playoff. The league is small enough where you can do a round robin also. Maybe do some uneven revenue sharing to help the top teams stay competitive with the power 2 such as let teams keep their bowl/home conference championship/playoff revenue. In this scenario I imagine Notre Dame comes alone for the ride as a non-football member and continues to play their 5 non-conference games with ACC teams rather than give up independence
There is no mention of how to dissolve the ACC in its charter.
Still say the best way would be ACC and Big12 form a new conference (so no one wins) after the few go to the other 2. Combine TV money and have 3 equally funded conferences.
So who exactly is buying that media deal? The media deal wouldn't be any better than they are getting now from ESPN, which is why some teams want to leave. If some teams leave and are replaced with smaller schools, then you get even less money, that's if you could find someone to broadcast them in the first place. You don't want to be the only conference with 100% of your games on a streaming service like Apple TV or something.
@@terrywilcox8913 the tv networks set the amounts they pay out. Just because some schools decide to merge or form a conference doesn’t mean the tv networks would somehow be made to pay more for said conference or conferences.
@jansonroberts2616 agree but if the current networks didn't want to match they could go partial streaming and get the cash up to where it should be
I don't think it's possible. There isn't enough teams with real value left over to form a conference that could keep up with the TV dollars the SEC and Big Ten command.
As TV contracts expire, big brands will flock to the new Super League which will offer unequal revenue sharing. Dead weight schools are the albatross that will lead to the B1G and SEC dissolving themselves.
There aren’t nearly enough quality teams with large enough affluent fans to even come close to the SEC much less the Big 10.
@@matthewhuszarik4173 That'a what I'm saying.... however, the SEC is worth more than the Big 10 as football is the big money maker. The TV viewership is much better across the SEC schools vs the Big 10.
@@WeSRT4 You have absolutely no understanding of the TV business. The value of advertising is dependent on the numbers, the disposable income of viewers, and the propensity of the viewers to be influenced by advertising. The SEC advertising revenue from their games will never be close to the Big 10. While a higher percentage of southerners watch college football that doesn’t matter what matters is absolute number which the Big 10 leads and will lead even more with the four new additions, but even more importantly is the income of the average Big 10 viewer is far greater than the average SEC viewer.
@@matthewhuszarik4173 Are you forgetting that the Big Ten covers the rust belt? Remember that the SEC covers Florida and Texas.
Its possible, there is several variables to forming another conference, maybe a 'reformed' ACC. Get rid of the current commissioner, Grant of Rights, and the TV contracts and start over. The 3 schools that might be running scared is Stanford, Cal., and SMU.
I think Wake and BC are peeing their pants right now. Maybe a few others. Why would Syracuse and GA Tech be more appealing than programs like Stanford and Cal that were rejected after the Pac12 fallout? LOTS of ACC schools are freaking out!
The problem with live show on Wednesday & Sunday is the variable starting times, 7:30 pm central to 8 :25 central, average starting time is around 8:10 central. Cannot get my IPad to ring the bell so I have to manually check in.
The market has already crafted the outcome of realignment. The Super 2 own the mass market, excluding individual team loyalties, and will drive the sport going forward. College football will resemble English soccer with the Premier League of dominant teams with a second and third tier comprised of the non-national brands.
"National brands"😂😂😂
Ok you’re so smart. Indiana vs Maryland is must watch tv
@@tmjel1 What sports do they play, rodeo?
@@tmjel1not really , but games like Eastern Michigan vs Temple is very appealing either
Dellenger's points contradict. If the networks don't have the money to add FSU and Clemson to the top conferences. How would they have the money to pay a brand new conference? It would be cheaper and more financially beneficial to have FSU, Clemson, UNC, and UVA in those top 2 and add the next tier to the Big 12. It would've made a lot more sense before the new CFP deal. But it doesn't now.
I don't think ESPN will have a problem, they won't be paying the ACC anymore.
The B1G though, that might be a problem as Fox just bumped up that deal and won't be keen on doing it again. I do agree though, trying to create a new conference makes zero sense.
I can envision that FSU and Clemson go through that whole exercise of leaving and then forming a new conference and still end up with a tv contract that pays them 30 to 40 million a year. Where’s the benefit? They’d actually lose money on it if they have to fork out a large exit fee to leave and then begin their own conference. It doesn’t look viable at all.
Theres always money for a new conference. But think Mtn West type money
Any of those ACC school's first choice if they can leave the ACC has to be to join either the BIG or SEC. Forming a new conference would pay them less than the ACC currently does. The fact FSU and Clemson have both sued the ACC tells me they feel confident they already have a landing spot in the BIG or SEC.
SCC, southern coastal conference
As for the "additive" argument - rank the current "football brands" in the B10 and SEC -- then ask yourself if FSU or Clemson would fall into the top half of the rankings for each conference. If the determination is "yep, top half", then the program would be "additive".
This past year, Clemson would have been 11th in the SEC for viewership and 8th in the B1G. FSU would have been 4th in the SEC and 3rd in the B1G. Both programs are top 15 in viewership over extended periods, so they make the cut. It gets tricky after that considering teams will likely be added in pairs. UNC football numbers are absolutely brutal. Miami and Louisville are respectable, but far from great. An FSU/Miami combo would be very similar to USC/UCLA.
I have made the point that FSU, Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia, Virginia Tech could join Notre Dame and form a conference with NBC as the broadcast network
Not just no but hell no, FSU wants no part of these schools or being in a dinky conference that ND will never join.
Would a scenario exist to bring Pittsburgh to the Big 12? Louisville?
What does a school like Pitt really add though? Have you seen most of their home games? They bring in a few hundred fans if the weather is decent. They also rent a stadium. They only can get people to watch if they play WVU or PSU. Does a Pitt/WVU game really add that much value above the current B12 average?
So like Miami you say??
The ACC major powers will all go to the SEC. It's a matter of ESPN moving all ACC funding to the SEC. Those funds are then essentially split between the major powers.
ND, FSU, UNC, and Texas A&M to the B1G
Clemson, NC State, VT, and WV to the SEC
Leftovers to the Big12
Put the pipe down 👎
That's what I've been saying, the timing of all this lines up for ESPN to just move some ACC teams to the SEC and then toss a few crumbs to the big12 to take a few more and let the rest scatter. The timing is terrible for expansion in the B1G, Fox just bumped up the media deal less than a year ago and it's doubtful they add anything else till the next media deal in 2030. The B1G has an escalation clause in it's current media for expansion, but it only names Notre Dame.
@@roris5882 It’s always good to have some comedic relief in these podcasts. Thanks for the laugh.
@@roris5882 UNC will be joining the SEC if and when they leave the ACC. Texas A&M is SEC through and through. You did get FSU and ND correct, at some point in the future.
Low key would love WVU to be in the FSU conference.
Assuming FSU and clemson dont immediately leave for SEC/B1G
It would be great but if FSU did what they did to the ACC, what happens in the future if their new conference pisses them off and they sue to leave that one? What happens to WVU? Consider it like dating a cheater!
I thought this too, and he’s probably wrong that Louisville wouldn’t be included, Pitt too. The “fat” is all the privates, who in fairness to them have done the best they could excluding Miami.
Big 10 not an option for non AAU members. Clemson and FSU will go to the SEC.
I appreciate the commentary! I’m not sure we can call it a P4 even if this situation happens. The gap between the SEC/BIG10 and the Big12 is still significant. 4 is an arbitrary number. The top two conferences are the Big10/SEC and it would take one hell of a Frankenstein conference to match their revenue. That being said, I’d like to see the Big12 make a run at this power notion with some ACC teams, but we’ll see.
A bit off topic, but I like the way John Kurtz admits a big 12 bias all the time. I wish more political news media would do that and not pretend to be objective.
That would be the responsible thing todo and also admit that there shows should be considered more entertainment than actual news.
Shouldn't the BIG12 strategy be to bring in as many of the best football and basketball programs from the ACC. It seems like by doing that, the BIG12 would continue getting stronger to compete with BIG10 and SEC in athletic power, more wins and better TV audience.
Yes, if any ACC schools want to join the big12 and pay their own way, the big12 would take them. You see it's about money, do you think ESPN will give the big12 enough money to add schools at a full share, cause I don't! If they don't, existing members of the big12 would have to take less money than they do now to assist the new teams. That's not likely, so how does the big12 come up with the money or do the new ACC take less, like half shares? Would it be worth it for ACC schools to move for a half share?
@@troywest7045 You're exactly right. It's going to be hard for the B12 to add 8 more schools at the current rate. Who from the ACC honestly adds real and meaningful value to the B12? That means value above the current average rate. Pitt is one of the top names I keep hearing. They rent a football stadium and have games where only a few hundred people show up. Their games will be a ghost town when they are not playing WVU. Where is the value in that? You really think Pitt will be able to sell tickets to a game against BYU or Arizona, seriously?
They will definitely sell tickets if it's byu, that's a given.
So many crazy things that can still happen. All eyes will be on the cours now to see if these ACC power schools can get out of the ACC GOR or will they get a negotiated settlement price.
Not possible. Why would why I pay for more and get less. Apple TV anyone 😂😂😂😂
More like just Apple in general man.
It would be less games to broadcast, but u r only missing out on games with smaller brands that nobody cares about. The remaining smaller number of games are better because the bigger brands r playing each other more often. The total paid by somebody like ESPN would probably be less but possibly not way less. Then splitting that amount with 8-10 teams instead of 18 makes the money go a lot further
I think you hit the nail on the head right there....
He alluded to it in his video...
None of these teams are going to want to take less money....
Yeah they're going to want these teams but like he said who is going to want to have less money just so they can have more teams?
ACC 10 teams
Clemson
Duke
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Miami
NC State
UNC
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
While it is morbidly interesting to debate these potential outcomes... If the money is now capped by ESPN and FOX and NBC and CBS won't pay, It might just be too late for the ACC schools to do better than they are now as a package for the next few years. if the ACC is such an anchor, then following a Notre Dame model for the top 4/5 brands (independent football) may be the only real alternative in the near term. Play four games against SEC teams, play four vs B1G and round it out against each other and any traditional rivalries. Stay in the ACC for BB and olympic sports.
UNC has said very clearly that they want out. There leaving does not spell the end of the ACC - the question is how many of the others will have homes. Right now there are only 3 with homes, UNC included.
I would like to see a new conference of the Mag 7 plus Wvu, Louisville, Duke, Pitt. Rivalries put eyes on the Tv.
Almost a leaner but meaner ACC with the expectation that some programs will eventually become p2 and others would seek safe shores in the XII.
Florida State
Clemson
West Virginia
Miami
Louisville
Virginia Tech
Oklahoma State
North Carolina
NC State
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
Virginia
The only way FSU and Clemson leaves the ACC is if an eighth member votes for the conference to dissolve and there is no way that is going to happen. You are asking a school to vote to have their means of income cut off with no where to go.
John I’m very happy I found your channel and believe you’re a very bright guy. However in terms of your argument here, your entire supposition is supported on the assumption that existing SEC / B10 Members would agree to a smaller share if ESPN is unwilling to add additional state revenue…which I don’t believe they will. If “said brands” offered the assumed additional value then ESPN (not being stupid) would step in and offer to renegotiate early like they did in the case of the B12.
Now… do I believe FSU, Clemson & NC are exceptional brands? Yes I do. But that list stops there as the remaining schools are like “fillers” in good cigars. They’re all different but some are better than others but cost the same price.
I do luv the realignment speculation as it gives all of us something to ponder, worry and cream & shout about and I…. LUV IT!
🤙
Having schools negotiate their own TV deals, something sounds so familiar about that
Unfortunately, FSU's application for AAU membership was recently rejected, so the Big 10 is not an option for FSU or Clemson.
That's an interesting thought, especially considering AAU is by invitation ONLY. You can't apply to be in the AAU.
I’ve been saying this too. Good point. Although, I think the whole AAU thing is overrated from an educational standpoint. But it still holds weight for most.
There are zero options to create a Power 3 or 4. It's a Power 2 now. The top brands have been consolidated. There is not enough left to build anything significant.
The networks disagree for now. They are most likely driving the ACC to split among the BIG, SEC and Big 12. Look what happened to the Pac.
Yup, even if they cut 4 to 8 bottom feeders out of the ACC, each member would only earn about $5-$10M more. Plus cutting out teams means their TV network will have less content to televise and that makes them less valuable.
@@roris5882 Yeah, it would almost have to be an Apple type deal. I'm not signing up for Apple to watch Florida State and NC State. That's a hard no thanks.
That is no doubt true in the short term. But if the new Power Conference embraces a policy of unequal revenue sharing and if the new Power conference avoids adding weak brands, it’s going to be too much of a draw to the strongest brands in CFB. The SEC & B1G will find it impossible to prevent their strongest brands from bolting to the new Power conference.
@@terencebaca1990 That's a great point. There will likely come a time when these super conferences get blown up and we go back to a more regional model. We could have had that if conferences like the PAC and B12 were more willing to bend over for schools like Texas and USC. Give a team like USC two shares of the conference if they are being the sugar daddies. All kinds of what if scenarios and who knows what happens in the more long term future.
I think the big brands in the ACC will end up in the B1G and SEC (UNC, Duke, Virginia, Miami, FSU, and Clemson). The rest of the ACC will join the Big 12. The Big 12 is gonna have to adopt a nationwide model where they have teams from all over the country to make themselves financially competitive with the new Super 2
Although unlikely,a conference comprised of the Magnificant 7 schools plus GT plus,dare I say Notre Dame,would be a very marketable football conference.
I don't see it John. I think the ACC will figure it out eventually.
Thanks John!
The best of the ACC and the Big 12 need to merge. They would still be less than the SEC and Big 10 but they would have more draw than either the ACC or the Big 12.
I've been hearing for quite a while that FSU adds or equals value for B1G, and Clemson adds or equals value for SEC, meanwhile apparently UNC adds or equals value for either B1G/SEC. So expect them to defect. Once these defect do not expect anything different than what happened to PAC... so next level teams (i.e. Louisville, etc) would much rather make better money in New Big XII.
The PAC was much different because of size. It's a very different situation. The ACC is currently sitting at 18 teams. They could lose the top 4 and still be sitting at 14. Even if the B12 takes 4, they are still sitting at 10. They could easily backfill at that point and make something that looks very similar to the B12. The B12 will probably need to take 8 teams from the ACC to force them down to G6 status. Is the B12 prepared to take 8 teams?
@@KeepChoppin Oh I fully believe ACC will back fill with PAC2 and remain an A4 conference though much less without top 8 brands but will be no where similar to Big XII. Right now with Top ACC Brands ACC got less revenue last two years than Big XII. Once Top 8 are gone their revenue will be closer to that of the G5 than the Big XII. Big XII does not want ACC to completely implode. 8 P5 teams made up of at least 4 original ACC schools + Calford + PAC2 would be enough to maintain A4 status according to Autonomous bylaws.
@@patrickboren2211 The B12 would certainly be higher on the list, but consider a conference as shown below. I think it would be much closer to the B12 than the G6. It would be much more formidable than you think, in my opinion.
Boston College
Notre Dame
Syracuse
Wake Forest
Duke
Georgia Tech
Virginia
SMU
California
Stanford
Oregon State
Washington State
South Florida
Tulane
Memphis
UConn
@@KeepChoppin The G5 additions of Tulane, Memphis and UCONN will each have to be waived by the Media partner as equal or additive to conference revenue.. ND may not be there, but maybe (not really a FB member) Virginia is expected to be a target of either B1G or SEC, not sure they will be there either. Still WF, Duke, GATech, SMU, Calford, PAC2 are still 8 valid teams to keep their status. Of course negotiating with ESPN is always there when it comes to adding those good G5 programs. I believe all three are outstanding.
@@KeepChoppin Why would ND stay in the ACC without it's most valuable schools? They would make peanuts.
Ross Dellenger is absolutely right! The new Power conference is Phase 1 of the eventual 32-team Super League. It won’t happen right away, but as TV contracts expire, the top brands will flock to the new Super Conference that offers unequal revenue sharing.
Only 32 teams would be a snoozer. Lose tons of viewership and interest. I’d like 64.
@@K-StateScottFL Blueblood schools probably will put a stop to more than 32 teams in their Super League. More than 32 means more mouths to feed and smaller TV payouts for every school in the league. 6-8 blueblood schools will have all the leverage to get their way on everything in the Super League.
Clemson and FSU should be in the SEC not TX and Ok. It's called the South East Conference not south and midwest
Jesus Loves You
1. FSU
2. UNC
3. Clemson
4. UVA
5. VT
6. NcSt
7. UCF
8. Miami
9. WVU
10. Louisville
11. GT
12. Pitt
Sorry cinci
I'll play along.... Feasible if UCF dropped for DUKE.
Drop UCF for Cincinnati-adds Ohio and there are already two Florida and two North Carolina teams. Also drop Neal Brown but keep WVU🤣
@@tarheel7406 Dook will be just fine in the big east
@@NA.NA.. And UCF will be just fine in the new BIG12. The concept here is to drop lower value members, and UCF is counter to that. On the other hand, DUKE is a big brand and preserves the UNC/DUKE unique asset.
Frankly, WVU doesn't fit brand and is unlikely, but my measure here is feasible.
@@tarheel7406UCF is the the largest school, and the third biggest brand in our nation's third biggest state to suggest a small private school in NC is better is ridiculous.
I know all about the lack of wvus brand thats why I ranked them 9 out of 12 lol
FSU contacted Big10 along with Maryland but didn’t get in due to not being an AAU school. ACC then raised exit fee. FSU had to sign it because they cannot get in Big10 or SEC.
That's not even remotely true. FSU almost left the ACC with Maryland, but it wasn't for the B1G, it was for the Big 12.
@@trclark7689 I remembered at the time, FSU wanted to build its own College of Engineering because their AAU application was hindered by FAMU/FSU COE. They even leveled the Alumni Village for the new FSU COE. But it was blocked by legislatures. Til this day, the Alumni Village is still a huge empty lot. So Big 10 was definitely FSU’s first choice. Now, B1G says AAU is not a requirement and also FSU is one step away from becoming an AAU member.
@@jamesw4445I agree that AAU status is coming. I wouldn’t be surprised if FSU gains AAU this year, but it’s not something you can apply for.
If having a shared Engineering school with FAMU is a deterrent for AAU selection, then I’d just rather not be an AAU member.
FAMU deserves to have a quality engineering school too, at least that’s my opinion.. 🤷🏼♂️
The future is hopeless for the B1G/SEC as their TV contracts expire. Their albatross is numerous weak brands and a policy of equal revenue sharing. All of it spells doom in the long run. This new Power conference is Phase 1 of the eventual 32-Team Super League. The new Power conference will embrace a policy of unequal revenue sharing. Weak brands will not be allowed into the new Power conference. Big brands will flock to the new Power conference. The SEC/B1G will find it impossible to compete and impossible to retain their big brands.
Yes, start a conference with nothing but weak brands, then expect the biggest brands to flock there and then deny weak brands from joining. This sounds like a great plan, good luck with that.
@@troywest7045 Weak brands? Why would FSU start a conference with weak brands from the ACC? The new Power Conference is going to consist of:
- FSU
- Miami
- North Carolina
- Virginia
- Clemson
- Georgia Tech
- Stanford
- Notre Dame
@@terencebaca1990 That's the ACC minus a few schools, the same conference that's falling behind the power 2 conferences. You think by trimming the fat of a failing conference not only would it get a comparable media deal that would insure it's survival, but the top schools in the SEC and B1G would leave their security and history to join this fledgling conference? Ohhhhh k. Good luck with that.
@@troywest7045 Current B1G and SEC schools are locked in to their current media contracts. So no school is going to bolt until 2030 and 2034. But it will certainly happen because the Super League will be too good to pass up for big brands looking to maximize their TV revenue. ESPN will be in full support of the Super League because it will crush all other media competitors, including FOX. The B1G and SEC will not survive. Too many small brands in those conferences. Those small brands are a drag on TV revenue for the blueblood schools. Also, the policy of equal revenue sharing is something that the blueblood schools will be glad to leave behind. But don't take my word for it. See the recent article written by Ross Dellenger on all of this.
I am sure that getting into the Florida market gives FSU special value to the B1G. With FSU, in addition to going from NYC to Chicago to LA (as TV execs have exclaimed, the B1G would go from NYC to FL to LA to Washington. Beyond that FSU does have major TV ratings, so it is not really a charity case. The comment that the existing B1G schools are not going to take a pay cut to add new members is almost certainly true,
Clemson must have some clue where it is going, which could be the Big 12. Unclear if Clemson has a home in the B1G or SEC, though they might. Miami is really questionable. See no chance for SEC and only to the B1G if FSU does not come there.
If the NC schools stay in the ACC, so will the two VA schools. Even without FSU and Clemson, the ACC will survive in a diminished status. As others have said, Wake, BC, and Syracuse really have no other option than a diminished ACC and GaTech is in about the same mess. Those schools are facing possible G5 status in football. In theory, Stanford, Cal and SMU (?) could rejoin with OrState and WaState, into a modified PAC. They might keep P4/5 status, but still not earn that much.
I have yet to see an FSU fan explain
how the B1G is gonna pay FSU and whoever comes with them. Y'all think there is just a pile of cash laying around to give to new schools? The B1G has an escalation clause in it's media for expansion, but that's just for Notre Dame. Anybody else would have to be paid by Fox declines they will have to ship that content around. Fox bumped up the media deal less than a year ago to add Washington/Oregon, they might not want to add anything else till the next media deal in 2030, if that's the case the probably try streaming services. Another thing is, I doubt any team that gets added before the next media deal will have to take a partial shares.
John,I think you give Dellinger’s punditry’s more credulity than deserved but who knows for sure?
The ACC was supposed to do that
There’s no power in the big 12 and especially the acc .
Do away with conferences. No conference title game. Top 16 in playoff.
Football ruined everything!
And the NCAAT continues to be the best!
Who would want to watch the CFP if your school is excluded from it?!
No one seems to be talking about the ACC's TV deal with the CW....
For those of you that do not know the CW is in every Major market in the United States and its free television just like ABC NBC CBS and Fox!...
Yes people are sitting back thinking, The CW?....What is that?....
Will the CW has LIV golf, NASCAR and now the exclusive network of the ACC.... CW now boasts 48 weekends of sports...Yes I know your laughing and saying it's just the CW.... Everyone said the exact same thing about Fox when they won the NFL contract!...No one is laughing now
Going to have to go to a tiered revenue model if teams like Vanderbilt want to stay.
LOL, why? The SEC continues to grow and strengthen all their member Schools. Payouts are projected to top 100 million by 2030 and that’s including all their CURRENT members. Unequal revenue has never been a long term solution or successful model.
Vanderbilt is a great institution and a valued member of the SEC. Why would they not want them or treat them as something less?
82 in views per game 2023. Vanderbilt - 205K. This is why.
FSU to Big10. Win win for both.
The problem that I consistently see is an absolute lack of creativity. Why do we keep believing that we need ESPN or CBS or NBC or any of these guys? Ladies and gentlemen, these are universities with young people training to be the executives at these companies. You have all of the resources available to you at a discount why can you not buy your own airwaves and put out your own product. They won’t have product to fill their slots and they will be forced to come back and try to take it and you can choose to sell them at a premium you get discounts they don’t but it’s the lack of creativity, and the lack of leadership that everyone has come to accept, and would rather sit there and cry in their coffee, then get up and do something. I’m disgusted by how simple so many people have become.
I wonder why the SEC and Big 10 don't cut their dead weight as well? Really I just want the 24 - 30 elitist snobs to go their own way so college Football can get back to being College Football.
Excuse me! They will serve up Indiana at Rutgers and you will like it! They are P2 you know.
The big 12 is more of the Frankenstein conference with adding the 4 G5 schools and4 of the 2nd tier pac 12 schools. Big 12 honestly can't afford to add anymore schools as any bottom tier school from the Acc wouldn't be additive. They'd be slicing more of the revenue pie with any added schools. Same if Acc tried to add big 12 schools.
I'm sure ESPN/fox is going to tell Acc and big 12 to merge to be viable or drop to to G7-G8 status
Taking the middle third of the ACC is possible for the Big XII, the bottom gets left behind.
Nope...the SEC and Big10 have already decided THEY will be the premier conferences and everyone else will be a tier below. Wish the SEC and Big10 would cut lose the teams that are seen rrelevant year in and year out....just put the BEST up against the BEST
That won't work for ESPN, FOX, NBC, CBS, etc. The networks' sports channels have lots of viewership time that would not be filled by the few remaining top tier programs. That's why ESPN and Fox signed a new contrast with the Big 12, even if the BIG and SEC don't value any of our programs right now.
@@knightu1642 well duh...you have to have the horrible games before you get to the PRIME matchups...you let those little teams like Tech and Byu play at those early time slots that are hardly watched THEN you start playing the REAL games.
ACC signed their tv deal with ESPN which would have made it better than the Big 10 and SEC at the time. But since then, the Big 10 and SEC are being over paid for bad programs. There is no value in the Virginia schools anymore. They have not been winning. Miami don't have their own football stadium. Clemson is not winning anymore. UNC was not a strong football school anymore. Louisville, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest and FSU are winning, and those 4 are not top targets. The next tv contract with SEC and Big 10 would be less money since cord cutting is very rapid, and the people are not going to sports streaming. The best solution is that all the FBS conferences and schools should come together and decides to all do a joint media deal and do the strongest schools in each conference in tv ratings get a higher paid. That mean even schools like Boise State, Memphis, Tulane, Fresno State etc get like $30 million since they do get the ratings if they are not saddled to play the dead weights in their conferences. Schools like Duke, Wake, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Calford, Illinois, etc gets paid around $15 to $25 million as being the dead weights in their conference. It would be fair for schools in the G5 who proved that they belong in a P4 conference.
Both the B1G and SEC just signed massive media deals including those teams you deem having no value. Both the B1G and SEC are also projected to have over 100 million dollar payouts per school per year in 2030 and beyond. So much for not having any value.
@@jansonroberts2616 Do ESPN and Fox have the money by 2030 and beyond? No. The sports media market busted recently, and ESPN is losing money quicker than they are taken in. 2010, ESPN and FS1 were in much more households than they are today. Streaming services are putting all the sports into a sports package which you have to pay more money to get them. The cheapest streaming service that I found is $40 a month, and it has no ESPN and all that in it. There is no signs that the cord cutters are getting any sports apps and all that which is why ESPN + is losing money. SEC Network is losing money since they are losing subscribers to cord cutters. Same with the ACC and Big 10 Networks. That is why the Big 10 and SEC are being over paid because there would be no mother to pay all that per school by that year.
FSU and Clemson are top targets. LMFAO!
@@encycl07pedia- The problem is would the presidents from both the Big 10 and SEC wants to get less money to bring in more teams? Why give them a lifeline?
@@Spitfirethedragon You do realize they have provisions to add new teams, right? Adding better teams also gives them more leverage. Why would any conference add any teams if it just made their profits worse?
The WAC breakup into the MWC v2
Let me guess K-State will be in the power 4
In Top 25 football poll, as always the last 25 years, is all I can say for sure.
Why would the valuable ACC schools want to earn less revenue creating a new conference instead of making more revenue joining the B1G or SEC? That seems like pipe dream that Big12 fans are wishing for because if the ACC collapses and the B1G and SEC add all the valuable schools then the talent and financial gap will grow so large that the Big12 won't be taken seriously.
Well it's going to be difficult for the B1G to add anyone before 2030. They have an escalation clause in their current media deal, but it's only for Notre Dame. Any other school added to the B1G means they would need to find money to pay them, they obviously have the extra games that comes with expansion to ship, which would go to the new ACC, but Fox just bumped up the media deal less than a year ago, it's highly doubtful they are up to go it again before 2030. So after that they shop the games around, maybe Apple TV, they have been trying to get into college football, but honestly how much could they possibly get for a small library of games and FOX, CBS, NBC, get first dibs on games each week, so no marquee matchups. It would be wishful thinking that would generate even a half share for new schools. After that the only thing the B1G could do is take less themselves to offset the difference. That scenario isn't likely, just because when has a school or schools taken considerably less money to add schools to a conference?
ESPN will probably be willing to overpay for the new Power Conference. It could crush the competition in the long run by ensuring the new Power conference embraces a policy of unequal revenue sharing. In the long run, the biggest brands will flock to this new Power conference in order to maximize their TV revenue.
@@terencebaca1990 We're talking about ESPN here, if they were in the business of over paying, the ACC wouldn't be in the position it's in. Nobody is leaving one of the power 2 conferences to join a reformatted ACC, that's not realistic.
@@troywest7045 The top bluebloods will bolt for more TV revenue in the eventual 32-Team Power Conference/Super League. Think about it. If you are Ohio State, do you want to continue to carry on your back the likes of Rutgers, Minnesota, Indiana, and Purdue? Do you want to continue to exist in a conference that embraces a policy of equal revenue sharing? Or would you rather move to a Super League that embraces unequal revenue sharing and greater TV payouts for CFB bluebloods? Of course, if you are being honest, it’s easy to predict all CFB bluebloods will flock to the Super League.
Watch the entire video. The answer to your question is there.
There are two “power” conferences capable of winning national championships in football and then there is the group of 7.
Group of 7 breakaway = Phase 1 for the eventual 32-Team Super League
Only after Notre Dame, FSU & Clemson move into the power 2
@@brianmcdaniel1760 Why would ESPN allow Notre Dame, FSU, and Clemson to bolt to the rival B1G/FOX? ESPN will do everything in its power to prevent that from happening.
This has been my objection the whole time.
People keep saying that Clemson & FSU would add to the payout, but is that true?
Is Clemson worth lots more than $100M, if not, adding them to the SEC/B1G doesn't make a lot of sense.
Check the ratings for Clemson match ups against past SEC opponents and same thing for FSU and you will have your answer. More of a national audience wants to watch Clemson- Georgia than watching Clemson vs Wake Forest or FSU vs Wake Forest and ESPN knows that.
No, which is why any school not named Notre Dame, better get used to the term "Half share".
The projections of 100 million dollar payouts aren’t until the 2030 season or beyond. Adds before then aren’t necessarily being held to future projections but rather current market value.
That’s why teams like FSU and Clemson are going to do everything they can to make the jump before those 100 million dollar payouts become reality rather than just future projections. Now is the time for them to make their moves.
I do find intriguing the idea of disbanding the ACC & reforming an 8 team ACC with a bigger per team ESPN payout. I doubt it would happen, but it would solve a lot of the problems they have.
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The L-12 is already a "Frankenstein Conference." Ten of the 16 L-12 schools were added in the last 12 years. Go back to bed, Kurtz.
Not happening, more baseless bs from this guy.
a minor league
Cut the pay to ESPN employees. They suck.
john kurts dont be a click bait bulkl;shit
YEAH CLICK BAIT BULLSHIT