I came back to poker after a 10+ year break, and I'm finding a lot of low stakes players are GTO obsessed. It's a good baseline, but live players are not playing like that. Your goal should be exploitation to make the most money, not playing "perfect" poker vs Daniel Negreanu cuz that mf ain't in your local 1/3 game. Marc is teaching the most exploitative poker I've seen so far since coming back, especially with timing and sizing tells. But one thing hasn't changed: making money is all about reading ranges.
Your videos are incredible. I have been following your videos for the past month or so, and my win rate has been skyrocketing. The other day I was playing for hours with someone who kept saying "I know you're bluffing!" but still kept folding. ??? All of my bluffs have been getting through. Mostly. One time, a new player sat down and called my overbet bluff on the river with bottom pair, so I made a simple adjustment and value-bet against him relentlessly and he called every time... so I made back from him way more than I lost on that initial bluff. THANK YOU for sharing this all with us!!! I'm glad most people won't actually do what you're showing.
Just wanted to say this is some of the best poker content on TH-cam (definitely the best for live midstakes) and you're an amazing coach and player Marc.
10000% this guy is gold. I’ve been a winning player past few years and this guy will help me to the next level
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Hey Marc - I'm really digging your approach - I'm binge-watching your vids, as I am wont to do, and I just wanted to thank you for your insights. For you younger players out there (I'm over 50) I have a bit of advice: No matter how long you've been playing, you can always learn new approaches, new lines, and also new concepts. I've been playing for about 22 years now, and not once have I ever stopped looking into how other successful players approach the game. If an old dog like myself can learn new tricks, then there's no reason you can't as well. Cheers!
great video and breakdown of concepts! You definitely have a tell though; I've noticed that whenever you make a strong hand you'll say "look at that sweet baby there!" You might want to fix that leak before your opponents catch on lol
I'm sure your strategy works well enough for you, but in my games, the flop never comes J92, so none of this applies. I just have to flip a coin. Heads I jam. Tails I fold.
your enthusiasm shows you truly care about the game over everything else in your life (hobby wise). ty for the lessons. ppl need to realize time away from the table studying is just as important as time at the table playing... but ppl be hating learning thx to public schools. i cant get enough of learning... 999
Marc!!! So glad that you have decided to keep the Bootcamp! I signed up on the website and super excited to speak with you next week. I play 5/5 at Hollywood Park Casino and while I’m winning marginally, I know that with your help, I will improve my win rate substantially! Hope I get to be part of the November class and thank you for offering these personalized bootcamp classes to people who are serious about improving their poker skills.
Hey Marc, absolutely love the content. I've noticed in your "is it possible to make $100 an hour at 5, 5" videos that you often talk about how the PLO bomb pots are basically free money. Could you make a guide on this?
Check or fold if you don't have a very strong hand or a draw to the nuts on at least one board. Bet big when you hit the exclusive nuts (nobody else can have the nuts but you). Congratulations, you're winning money since people will call you down with two pair or whatever stupid crap they think is good for some reason.
YOOO thats me. I love that you picked my comment because i wasnt aware of that flaw in my reasoning (its more costly to go just too small than just too big). Ty for finding my leak
@@hungryhorsepoker they do say ego is the biggest killer of poker careers. Cant improve if you dont admit you’re wrong. Btw i subscribed to the channel earlier today. What a coincidence lol.
You’re actually not necessarily wrong there. Pete from carrot corner is always talking about finding the most optimal sizings with bluffs bc they add up over time. I’ve also seen other coaches talk about this, bluff efficiency is very important. Would love to have Marc go on his show and debate this bc he doesn’t seem to believe it at all
Best poker videos on the internet right now imo, and I don't think it's close either. Excited to see what coaching/training materials you release soon. A question I have is in the North East, rooms struggle to get mid stakes games like $2/5 going so rooms often only run $1/2 or $1/3, and in these games a lot of players just play with relatively short stacks, which doesn't always leave room for the big boy overbets. Deepstack poker is art, and short stack poker is technical, would love to see some strategies for when stacks are at that awkward in between sizes. Big fan of the channel, hopefully I can get coaching from you sometime soon Have a gentle day
short stack live play isnt so technical haha, just flop top pair with a good kicker or better and pile the money in. Need to check back flops or turns or something like that to leave enough room for large overbet bluffs.
Come to encore. They have 2/5 running all the time. Subscribe to crush live poker. They have plenty of podcasts and such that specifically address awkward stack sizes, like when it's 1.5 spr on the turn for example. Bart Hanson talks about these types of things all the time in his podcast. I would argue that the awkward shortstack scenarios are also more of an "art" than they are technical. It's all art, man. ☮
I'm up thousands at 1/3 no limit and it 100% has to do with you teaching me speech play and uncapped versus capped. I definitely have a huge edge over recreational players. Most of my money comes from them. I am even holding my own against the regs mon-thurs. I'm not trying to be the best for high stakes. But I would like to make $1000 a week playing 1/3 nl for about 20-30 hours.
I just started being capable of folding sets within the last few months of playing. Simply for the fact that players are under bluffing and the reason u mentioned that folding bluff catchers is still overall +EV. I will now make a standard fold with the set of 55 on the river if my opponent leads out on the river in that spot. I will call if the player arch type is different from the overall pool tho.
29:00 It was nice to see the variance of a lag vs a tag. I plugged in the 26.5bb / hr. vs 49.5bb / hr. win rate into prime dope for 3,000 hands (100 hr sample) and it was still less than 0.33% chance of losing for the lag. I also used 80 standard deviation for the tag and 100 for the lag for the volatility. This was great example of how players misunderstand variance and volatility over small sample sizes. I think players are trying to win all the time over 200 hand samples.
Hey Marc! I am very excited to hear that you’re not getting rid of your poker Boot Camp. I really wanted to give it a go, but I don’t have any 2/5 games in my area. Let alone be able to play at least 50 hours a month in that game. I only have 1/2 NL that only plays on Fridays and Saturdays giving me about 50 hours a month to play. And that’s if I can go every Friday and Saturday and that’s if every Friday and Saturday there’s a game going, which in the winter time seems to be less. I’m completely looking forward to your other class materials for people in my situation. Thank you again for the great content. It has made me a very successful Poker player thus far. I have even started doing the same type of table talk LOL.
Just had my biggest loss (-1000) playing live poker tonight (2/3), but feeling invigorated after watching this vid. Great breakdown of common misconceptions. I lost first bullet overvaluing top pair. (100 bb deep) I raisedJh9h big in late position after three limps. Flop was 944 with flush draw. EP donked for 1/3 pot and I jammed because I was scared of letting flush draw get there for cheap. Whale in button called me with 46 offsuit and won. Definitely bad play given multiway pot. Lost second bullet to a bad beat. Had bluffed a big pot before so was up to 500. (straddle to 6) Raise KcTc to 11 late position because I didn't see straddle. BU, SB, BB call. Flop is 984 two clubs. SB bets 30, BB folds, I call, and BU raises to 130. SB folds and I call. Turn is Ts. I donk jam for 300 more expecting him to put me on clubs which he did and he called with K9 (no flush draw). River is a 9 to bail him out. Last bullet (100 bb deep) was lost after CO (whale playing any 2) RFI to 25, BU calls, SB raises to 125, and I jam in BB with 99. (It was my first pocket pair all night and stupidly felt attached to it). Folds to SB who calls after tanking with JJ. I gotta get better about letting mediocre pairs go after so much aggression multiway. Not necessarily posting this comment for feedback but rather to cement in my head what I need to improve. Thanks for great content! First vid i've seen from you but definitely subscribing.
That set of 5s hand is actually a super easy fold. Getting cold called 2x with all those draws getting there on a river is NOT a bluff unless opponent is known to be crazy
Truelly ,it blows my mind how you who is not even one of the top 100 pros out there ate exposing their secrets on beating low stakes.Charlie Carrel ,Igor and many other pros made their bankroll by playing this style your teaching us so THX alot for exposing the knowlege to the public.
The answering chat pros theme feels sorta weird tbh, but damn, these are all so educational and you might actually be as good at entertaining/teaching/editing as you are at poker.
Ah man i wish i could join the bootcamp in November. It's a matter of time before i will join you guys. Looking forward to that other program in the meantime, your vids helped me so much on the tables 👍
I think speech play is very nuanced. I know people who will misdirect with general statements like you did in your examples “I have a straight, but not the best straight” or “I’m bluffing because you don’t have anything” (Misdirection: I’m trying to shift your focus away from the reason for my bet) or “I have a set” but don’t indicate which set etc but I will say that when people make a specific declaration of their exact 2 cards (like, “I have 97 of spades” with no room for ambiguity, this is usually where people are telling the truth. There seems to be a (thin) line in most people between misdirection and flat out lying that people tend to walk, in my opinion.
If someone declares the exact two cards they have (like 97 of spades, or just 97 if that makes a straight), they may not have 97 of spades all the time, but they will have it at a higher frequency than someone who says nothing. People will sprinkle the truth in sometimes so their opponents won't know that they can't have that hand if they always lied (even though no one on the planet is keeping score). And most people won't balance their lies correctly with the truth and wind up telling the truth more often than the likeliness of actually having the stated hand. So in an otherwise borderline situation where 97 of spades would be one of the hands you fear if nothing was said, you have a fold if facing a bet, even though he may be lying more often than not.
The hard part of this is making the proper assumptions of ranges, garbage in garbage out. Coming up with accurate ranges is what separates the good from the great and that can only come from alot of experience in a given player pool/ type
#9 was awesome. Just lost 300bb from running ice cold and getting out drawn against guys I know I out class. So encouraging to hear that “high variance” is profitable when making good +ev decisions overall. Losing sucks, but understanding it’s role in the big picture is important. I’m holding at 11.27bb/hr. 💪
The great thing about exploitative poker is you don't have to be as theoretically sound to make good money. There are some players that know a lot of theory (which is definitely good), that win less than if they were willing to also go the exploitative route. I think people are often afraid of this because it feels vulnerable being so unbalanced, but it really makes winning so much easier. Sometimes you do end up getting owned really bad, but with experience you get owned less often as you become more familiar with the common spots.
1 thing I learned in poker. Everyone wants to be a winner. Very few people want to be a crusher. Show someone any nod locked mistake and how to max exploit the mistake and theyll say, "nope, I'm never doing that, it's not GTO" 😂
6:30 can you explain why we should not interpret these numbers proportionally? If we bet big (160) we win 140.60, or less than 1x of our big bet. But if we bet small (45) we win 118.15, or nearly 2.5x of our small bet. I presume we are just shooting for the biggest absolute win amount, not the biggest win % of our bet, but would love a full explanation. Thanks for great content bro.
The contrarian in me wants to say that if Villain has TT/JJ when you have AcKc, you're making a negative ev call. And if they have QQ+ it's break-even with folding after rake (since it's a +0.4bb call?)... but sometimes opponents can have wacky shit and if you make a 1 time -4bb call in a standard stack off spot, it's fine since you can't see your opponents hand. Also agree with the overbet bluff sizes. Most people are lucky if they are in a spot to overbet the river as a bluff once per session. If a person folds 50% of the time when you bet $300 into $225, but folds 80% of the time when you bet $400 into $225 you lose less money on the $400 bet "long run" when you get called ($150 compared to $80). That 97s hand is wild. 5x should snap you off.
Another great video and thanks for the content. #9 was really interesting and I would like to learn more about how always pursuing + EV can double to triple win rate. Was that the mental game piece that Alex was talking about in the Triple Your Win rate video or was he referring to something else? Looking for to the sub service later this fall/winter.
it’s about always taking the highest ev line, regardless of if it’s “high variance”. in the long run having the highest win rate will be the best for not losing over big samples. we’d love to have you in a bootcamp or crash course, membership will only be for those who have completed one do the other!
It's really hard for me to fully accept the first hand especially given that we dont know the villains history, tendencies, or range. What about 67? Maybe they called 45? They could have read you as a bluffer and thought you were bluffing with high bets. I've seen V call with 34 before. Depending on their level, they may have been bluffing a flush. Maybe they called suited, and in seeing the hearts decide to bluff if the third heart came.
Can you do a single video where you go over your live game and explain your reasoning in more detail like explaining a few scenarios. Let’s say an Ace came on the river or let’s say the flush came in or let’s say the straight got there. I struggle with these situations because I always think they have it even when they don’t basically I always get in my head about the better ace kicker or the better hand always being in my opponents hand
Yea I knew I was wrong when you responded on my original comment. Pretty dumb looking back lol. Glad to see it got my name in one of your videos at least! Also my winrate at 1/2 and 1/3 at casinos is -7bb/h (240 hours) but in home games its 30+bb/h (512 hours). Anything come to mind that might cause this other than variance? Thanks for the content.
I remember when it dawned on me how outside of the box you can get to take advantage of a player. Good reg bet about 400 into a 130 pot on the turn with TPTK. The opponent snap called. Riverrd the flush and raked in an almost 1000 pot at 1/3. My first thought was the overbetter was a dufus, putting in that deep with one pair. Then, I played all night with the guy. He was crushing like I’d never seen. Later I realized this small town has a small player pool and he was eating them alive knowing their play style. At one point the guy jammed (smaller eff stacks) with second pair and got called by ace high. The solver would have thrown up in its mouth but this guy was making a living off extreme exploits.
I only play online microstakes poker but a lot of what you say applies to that aswell. On the mono boards, do you assume/know from experience that villains raise flushes so often? Online these boards are being slowplayed by fish quiet a bit I believe. And doesn’t the AcKc hand become a fold because rake as this downgrades your 33.5% equity? You pay 715$ for 2150$ on paper. Actually it's 715$ for 2042.5$ tho if you add 5% rake -> 715 / 2042.5 = 35%, which makes this a fold if your tables are raked 5%. Or am I wrong about something here?
In theory, you can actually range bet 23% on monotone boards and ace high baords and have very minimal EV loss. On all other boards range bet 33%. That small size range bet is amazing since so many villains raise their flushes against that size.
@@nathanebenezer3963 Exactly the strat I am using, in general I agree I am probably just too much of a pussy to bet Pot/overbet turns on those boards ^^
One thing I always find interesting is when someone uses the term "what are their bluffs" when they make a river bet (or any street). What makes all these creators, vloggers, anyone think theyre bluffing? The only options are not bluffing or the nuts. People overplay hands. This is how you make money.
Hi there. LOVE IT! Thank you!! I tried to enroll in the bootcamp. Everything worked until the very last step when it said it would email the calendarly link to my email. Didn't get it. Tried 2x and did put in my correct email. Isn't in junk. Is calendarly working?
Here's another lie: "Running it multiple times when all-in smooths out the variance, and gives the underdog a better chance to get lucky." Uh, no, actually it doesn't. Running it 100,000 times, picking up the turn and river cards after each run and shuffling them back into the deck for the next run, would smooth out the variance for the player who is the favorite. But two or three times? No. It's an illusion. And as for the underdog in this spot, the more times you run the board, the WORSE it is for him (remember, sometimes the underdog will get lucky on the early boards). What running it multiple times DOES do, however, is slow down the game. It also violates the spirit of big bet poker, the very appeal of which is the potential for huge short term swings in the space of a single hand. I mean, isn't that why everyone plays no-limit rather than limit? For the adrenaline rush? Certainly that's the aspect that appeals to the whales. So why the hell try to 'smooth out' the variance? If the short-term variance bothers you, if you don't like being all-in for your whole stack even when you're the favorite, then play limit hold'em. If you can stay awake. Or admit to yourself that you're on scared money and need to drop down in stakes.
learning how to breathe through my nose with my mouth open so I can catch some of these over bet bluff lines from Hungry Horse students. Gonna have to buy some ICP merch and grow out a nice neck beard. They won't accept me into the boot camp because my state has too many horses :(
Marc - would you be able to do some more content on your strategy going into flops in single raised pots? I've seen you mix checking range and c-betting half pot. I think videos to strengthen understanding here would be fantastic!
My understanding is that his MO is to bet your whole range around 1/2 pot when in position, and check your whole range when out of position. This capitalizes on common low stakes mistakes and simplifies your thinking.
Does the strategy of the A9 hand change when villain has a 100 % of Ax of hearts in range. Because in my experience they don't raise that on the monotone flop.
I have studied some small amounts with Jonathan Little and watch a ton of carrot corner videos on youtube and I think these are just as educational. Great tips but it’s super easy to misuse them, so I always have to be careful
I'm surprised I didn't make this video too lol, because I'm sure I've made some bonehead comments too but I have been using some of your strategies over the last few months and I've personally seen my win rate go up so great stuff!
Can you comment about stack depth when most players buy in with 100BB, if i buy in with 200BB doesnt that effect all the strategy, like open range and bluffing? Thanks for your videos!
Great vid. Keep the content coming. Love the max exploitive approach. I think maybe 2% of players will adjust vs you. The other 98% you’re running over keep printing bud!
I want your thoughts about online low stakes and you should show some of those results I'm trying to grind 10/25 and it's difficult wondering if 1/2 live is easier for more money but can't play live at the moment bankroll other reasons
Why was the 8♠️7♠️ hand a c-bet on the flop? Is it because you're c-betting 100% on flops with two high cards when you raise UTG? I get that you have the nut advantage on that specific flop, but I would want at least one spade, or a gutshot with something like 9T.
@@terencehill3972 I am right now. It's really remarkable how they just take my check as a sign of weakness. I never knew it was possible. Just the other day. I bet Kings preflop in the BB then checked them on a 10,6,7 rainbow flop. Like clockwork, one of the 5 callers decided he should bet. He got two callers and the turn was a King. I check and he bets again. I call. The river was a five and I jammed. He snap calls and I more than double up. Had I cbet the flop, I don't think any of them call as they see me as a tight player.
Based off of the amount of fluff before even seeing the price I’m guessing it’s expensive but tbh i think he’s a great player based off what I’m seeing
Marc! You are superstar and I empathize that after you get pushback from your customers who invested Thousands you are listening. However, I would shy from announcing a large scale, wide-audience business model like a subscription service until you are 90% sure it is going to happen. I broke up with my current poker education sub in anticipation of your launch. That is on me, of course. The issue is now, if I want to join again, I am going to have to pay them 50% percent more as my price was locked from pre covid prices. Sure, this is a bit of grousing. Just a thought from a minion in your growing fanbase.
hey! completely understand you cancelled your other sub and were looking forward to our wide audience membership model. sorry for any hassle this caused. the good news: we still are launching a membership model. it’s going to only be for those who have completed either our bootcamp or crash course, but the crash course will be much more accessible (time and price point wise) and designed for players who don’t quite meet the requirements of bootcamp. we decided we never truly want to open the doors to EVERYONE, as that sounded like a bit of a nightmare to us and we only want to work with players who are very serious about improving their game. it sounds like the crash course + membership could be a possible fit!
@@hungryhorsepoker Thanks for replying! I hope you price the The Crash Course for a wide audience and I look forward to investing in it when it launches. Also, thanks for all the PLO Double Board Bomb Pot content in your recent HH videos. I time stamp those and return to them before I go for a live session here in Texas.
Hi, I just found you. I think you provide LOTS of great information. I am well aware of poker, been playing for DECADES = You talk TOO FAST. My brain can't process that quickly !!!!
In general I agree with everything you say here, but to be fair to the comment about overbetting he questioned whether opponents would be elastic to those sizes. When you tell the solver that the player is folding more to the larger overbet that's making them elastic. Still, your point is well taken that even if they're minorly elastic the large overbet works better.
in this 87s hand there seems to be a lot of assumptions going in which are just not clear how to validate them (does he fold AK for 515 but not for 350 maybe, maybe not etc.) with actual data, so i don't think we can make the conclusion you are right and commenter is wrong. If your assumptions are true (not testable) you are right, if not and pool is a bit nittier (also not testable) commenter might be right...
I love your analysis but my one criticism is how often you generalize. It would be wise to address the issue of calling stations and /or thinking regs. At least speak to the existence of these types of players in your analysis.
How do you know the bb, when you had the 87s, utg is not inelastic? How do you know he’s not a calling station with no fold button? Did you have a large enough sample size to have a proper meta game analysis on him? Also you had no blockers and you unblocked the trash you want him to have. I don’t hate it tbh. I like sick ish, but not strictly on assumptions. I like the theoretical thought process with the bet sizing but rhyme? Reason? Um also the AKs was a break even call because you thought that you had 33% chance to win, and you were getting 2 to 1. That sounds like you thought you were break even at best.
Why are you choosing AhJx as his bluff hands. That makes zero sense. Something like 7h7x, 8h8x, sometimes maybe even ThTx makes more sense. JxTh is another. If they are turning showdown hands into bluffs it’s more likely to be those than AJ. Anyways. Nobody expect me makes a play like this. I made it about an hour ago actually. It’s was T high and I had JT with the J of the suit that came In. Anyways. Good stuff always. I just don’t think AJ was a very good example.
11:10 I agree with all of this except AK folding 100%. In Texas games and Florida games they definitely are not. Maybe 40%. Depends on where you are playing.
I came back to poker after a 10+ year break, and I'm finding a lot of low stakes players are GTO obsessed. It's a good baseline, but live players are not playing like that. Your goal should be exploitation to make the most money, not playing "perfect" poker vs Daniel Negreanu cuz that mf ain't in your local 1/3 game. Marc is teaching the most exploitative poker I've seen so far since coming back, especially with timing and sizing tells. But one thing hasn't changed: making money is all about reading ranges.
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@@330miggs Thank you for your service
Bingo.
@@hungryhorsepoker Is the bootcamp price REALLY 4 thousand dollars?
Your videos are incredible. I have been following your videos for the past month or so, and my win rate has been skyrocketing. The other day I was playing for hours with someone who kept saying "I know you're bluffing!" but still kept folding. ??? All of my bluffs have been getting through. Mostly. One time, a new player sat down and called my overbet bluff on the river with bottom pair, so I made a simple adjustment and value-bet against him relentlessly and he called every time... so I made back from him way more than I lost on that initial bluff. THANK YOU for sharing this all with us!!! I'm glad most people won't actually do what you're showing.
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This channel has confirmed all of our most daunting intuitions....that to get that fat win rate, you gotta be willing to 2x pot river bluff 😂
I’ll believe it when I see it
if you're watching his 100$/hr series... you're literally seeing him do it
@@claytonplaiaif you don’t believe that size works as a bluff I’m assuming when you have big value hands you are always betting 2x pot right ?
@@joshsheppard21 no I wouldn’t bet 2x the pot in any circumstance with any hand, ever.
@@claytonplaia why not are you playing pot limit hold ‘em or no limit hold ‘em
Just wanted to say this is some of the best poker content on TH-cam (definitely the best for live midstakes) and you're an amazing coach and player Marc.
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10000% this guy is gold. I’ve been a winning player past few years and this guy will help me to the next level
Hey Marc - I'm really digging your approach - I'm binge-watching your vids, as I am wont to do, and I just wanted to thank you for your insights.
For you younger players out there (I'm over 50) I have a bit of advice: No matter how long you've been playing, you can always learn new approaches, new lines, and also new concepts. I've been playing for about 22 years now, and not once have I ever stopped looking into how other successful players approach the game. If an old dog like myself can learn new tricks, then there's no reason you can't as well. Cheers!
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great video and breakdown of concepts! You definitely have a tell though; I've noticed that whenever you make a strong hand you'll say "look at that sweet baby there!" You might want to fix that leak before your opponents catch on lol
I'm sure your strategy works well enough for you, but in my games, the flop never comes J92, so none of this applies. I just have to flip a coin. Heads I jam. Tails I fold.
that’s a good adjustment
The flop doesn’t have to be j92 for the information to apply 🤦♂️.
Yes, it literally does. If the flops are not J92r, everything Marc says is useless.
your enthusiasm shows you truly care about the game over everything else in your life (hobby wise). ty for the lessons. ppl need to realize time away from the table studying is just as important as time at the table playing... but ppl be hating learning thx to public schools. i cant get enough of learning...
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Marc!!! So glad that you have decided to keep the Bootcamp! I signed up on the website and super excited to speak with you next week. I play 5/5 at Hollywood Park Casino and while I’m winning marginally, I know that with your help, I will improve my win rate substantially! Hope I get to be part of the November class and thank you for offering these personalized bootcamp classes to people who are serious about improving their poker skills.
hey raquel! thanks so much for the kind words, you’ll be speaking with ryan next week. can’t wait to have you on board.
Hey Marc, absolutely love the content. I've noticed in your "is it possible to make $100 an hour at 5, 5" videos that you often talk about how the PLO bomb pots are basically free money. Could you make a guide on this?
Check or fold if you don't have a very strong hand or a draw to the nuts on at least one board. Bet big when you hit the exclusive nuts (nobody else can have the nuts but you). Congratulations, you're winning money since people will call you down with two pair or whatever stupid crap they think is good for some reason.
YOOO thats me. I love that you picked my comment because i wasnt aware of that flaw in my reasoning (its more costly to go just too small than just too big).
Ty for finding my leak
ty for being a good sport 🥰
@@hungryhorsepoker they do say ego is the biggest killer of poker careers. Cant improve if you dont admit you’re wrong.
Btw i subscribed to the channel earlier today. What a coincidence lol.
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@@zero_zero107 you have the right attitude
You’re actually not necessarily wrong there. Pete from carrot corner is always talking about finding the most optimal sizings with bluffs bc they add up over time. I’ve also seen other coaches talk about this, bluff efficiency is very important. Would love to have Marc go on his show and debate this bc he doesn’t seem to believe it at all
Currently having a gentle day 😻
This channel has made me stop worrying and learn to love the 1.5x+ river bluff
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Best poker videos on the internet right now imo, and I don't think it's close either.
Excited to see what coaching/training materials you release soon.
A question I have is in the North East, rooms struggle to get mid stakes games like $2/5 going so rooms often only run $1/2 or $1/3, and in these games a lot of players just play with relatively short stacks, which doesn't always leave room for the big boy overbets. Deepstack poker is art, and short stack poker is technical, would love to see some strategies for when stacks are at that awkward in between sizes.
Big fan of the channel, hopefully I can get coaching from you sometime soon
Have a gentle day
short stack live play isnt so technical haha, just flop top pair with a good kicker or better and pile the money in. Need to check back flops or turns or something like that to leave enough room for large overbet bluffs.
Come to encore. They have 2/5 running all the time.
Subscribe to crush live poker. They have plenty of podcasts and such that specifically address awkward stack sizes, like when it's 1.5 spr on the turn for example. Bart Hanson talks about these types of things all the time in his podcast.
I would argue that the awkward shortstack scenarios are also more of an "art" than they are technical. It's all art, man. ☮
Come to encore, they have 2/5 running all the time.
I won't say the other thing, guess it's not allowed, whoops sorry.
@@fredrick2390 the take at encore is so bad but yeah that does run a lot
I'm up thousands at 1/3 no limit and it 100% has to do with you teaching me speech play and uncapped versus capped. I definitely have a huge edge over recreational players. Most of my money comes from them. I am even holding my own against the regs mon-thurs.
I'm not trying to be the best for high stakes. But I would like to make $1000 a week playing 1/3 nl for about 20-30 hours.
Doesn’t sound bad
"If you have a strategy more complex than tieing your shoe..."😂
I just started being capable of folding sets within the last few months of playing. Simply for the fact that players are under bluffing and the reason u mentioned that folding bluff catchers is still overall +EV. I will now make a standard fold with the set of 55 on the river if my opponent leads out on the river in that spot. I will call if the player arch type is different from the overall pool tho.
Love the video concept w rebutting against chat pros, feels like a round table of sorts lol
🥰🥰🥰 i enjoyed making this one
29:00 It was nice to see the variance of a lag vs a tag. I plugged in the 26.5bb / hr. vs 49.5bb / hr. win rate into prime dope for 3,000 hands (100 hr sample) and it was still less than 0.33% chance of losing for the lag. I also used 80 standard deviation for the tag and 100 for the lag for the volatility. This was great example of how players misunderstand variance and volatility over small sample sizes. I think players are trying to win all the time over 200 hand samples.
Hey Marc! I am very excited to hear that you’re not getting rid of your poker Boot Camp. I really wanted to give it a go, but I don’t have any 2/5 games in my area. Let alone be able to play at least 50 hours a month in that game. I only have 1/2 NL that only plays on Fridays and Saturdays giving me about 50 hours a month to play. And that’s if I can go every Friday and Saturday and that’s if every Friday and Saturday there’s a game going, which in the winter time seems to be less. I’m completely looking forward to your other class materials for people in my situation. Thank you again for the great content. It has made me a very successful Poker player thus far. I have even started doing the same type of table talk LOL.
hey brian! looking forward to having you in our crash course group in november or december
Been watching you for awhile now and you’re the best big dawg 👏🏼👏🏼 keep it up please
ty ty ty ty
Just had my biggest loss (-1000) playing live poker tonight (2/3), but feeling invigorated after watching this vid. Great breakdown of common misconceptions.
I lost first bullet overvaluing top pair. (100 bb deep)
I raisedJh9h big in late position after three limps. Flop was 944 with flush draw. EP donked for 1/3 pot and I jammed because I was scared of letting flush draw get there for cheap. Whale in button called me with 46 offsuit and won. Definitely bad play given multiway pot.
Lost second bullet to a bad beat. Had bluffed a big pot before so was up to 500. (straddle to 6)
Raise KcTc to 11 late position because I didn't see straddle. BU, SB, BB call. Flop is 984 two clubs. SB bets 30, BB folds, I call, and BU raises to 130. SB folds and I call. Turn is Ts. I donk jam for 300 more expecting him to put me on clubs which he did and he called with K9 (no flush draw). River is a 9 to bail him out.
Last bullet (100 bb deep) was lost after CO (whale playing any 2) RFI to 25, BU calls, SB raises to 125, and I jam in BB with 99. (It was my first pocket pair all night and stupidly felt attached to it).
Folds to SB who calls after tanking with JJ.
I gotta get better about letting mediocre pairs go after so much aggression multiway.
Not necessarily posting this comment for feedback but rather to cement in my head what I need to improve.
Thanks for great content! First vid i've seen from you but definitely subscribing.
Cool story bro. Your trash not cuz those hands because you decided to post them 😂 get a real job start a family and forget about dumb pipe dream
I don't know if you are giving sound advice or not, (because I suck at NL) but your rationale and explanations are great.
That set of 5s hand is actually a super easy fold. Getting cold called 2x with all those draws getting there on a river is NOT a bluff unless opponent is known to be crazy
This is brilliant. Thanks for posting!
Another stellar video! Best poker content. Keep it up! Cheers
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Fantastic concept and exceptional video once again. Thanks for all the awesome content
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I love these videos because it is a thinking player's approach to try to exploit them as much as possible.
Truelly ,it blows my mind how you who is not even one of the top 100 pros out there ate exposing their secrets on beating low stakes.Charlie Carrel ,Igor and many other pros made their bankroll by playing this style your teaching us so THX alot for exposing the knowlege to the public.
The answering chat pros theme feels sorta weird tbh, but damn, these are all so educational and you might actually be as good at entertaining/teaching/editing as you are at poker.
This was an awesome video, thanks a million.
Love the content….how do you only have 30k subs? 👍🏻
Ah man i wish i could join the bootcamp in November. It's a matter of time before i will join you guys. Looking forward to that other program in the meantime, your vids helped me so much on the tables 👍
we can’t wait to have you!
@@hungryhorsepoker It's gonna be a blast :) Great vid as usual Marc
18:04 is straight fire
Can you do a video on ‘protecting check back range’ ?
That’s like betting so you don’t look weak checking ?
1) is a small river bet, he is scared of the flush and its a blocking bet that he will do with 100 percent of his range.
I think speech play is very nuanced. I know people who will misdirect with general statements like you did in your examples “I have a straight, but not the best straight” or “I’m bluffing because you don’t have anything” (Misdirection: I’m trying to shift your focus away from the reason for my bet) or “I have a set” but don’t indicate which set etc but I will say that when people make a specific declaration of their exact 2 cards (like, “I have 97 of spades” with no room for ambiguity, this is usually where people are telling the truth.
There seems to be a (thin) line in most people between misdirection and flat out lying that people tend to walk, in my opinion.
If someone declares the exact two cards they have (like 97 of spades, or just 97 if that makes a straight), they may not have 97 of spades all the time, but they will have it at a higher frequency than someone who says nothing. People will sprinkle the truth in sometimes so their opponents won't know that they can't have that hand if they always lied (even though no one on the planet is keeping score). And most people won't balance their lies correctly with the truth and wind up telling the truth more often than the likeliness of actually having the stated hand. So in an otherwise borderline situation where 97 of spades would be one of the hands you fear if nothing was said, you have a fold if facing a bet, even though he may be lying more often than not.
The hard part of this is making the proper assumptions of ranges, garbage in garbage out. Coming up with accurate ranges is what separates the good from the great and that can only come from alot of experience in a given player pool/ type
The live read one gave me a giggle
me too 😂
#9 was awesome.
Just lost 300bb from running ice cold and getting out drawn against guys I know I out class. So encouraging to hear that “high variance” is profitable when making good +ev decisions overall. Losing sucks, but understanding it’s role in the big picture is important. I’m holding at 11.27bb/hr. 💪
such a great video Marc Goone . pls keep going brother
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The great thing about exploitative poker is you don't have to be as theoretically sound to make good money. There are some players that know a lot of theory (which is definitely good), that win less than if they were willing to also go the exploitative route. I think people are often afraid of this because it feels vulnerable being so unbalanced, but it really makes winning so much easier. Sometimes you do end up getting owned really bad, but with experience you get owned less often as you become more familiar with the common spots.
That "Have a Gentle Day" is Powerful 💯
At 14:23 whats the best play if you have AK instead of 84 facing the 1/2 pot bet with $500 (.5 SPR) behind?
1 thing I learned in poker. Everyone wants to be a winner. Very few people want to be a crusher. Show someone any nod locked mistake and how to max exploit the mistake and theyll say, "nope, I'm never doing that, it's not GTO" 😂
6:30 can you explain why we should not interpret these numbers proportionally? If we bet big (160) we win 140.60, or less than 1x of our big bet. But if we bet small (45) we win 118.15, or nearly 2.5x of our small bet. I presume we are just shooting for the biggest absolute win amount, not the biggest win % of our bet, but would love a full explanation. Thanks for great content bro.
The contrarian in me wants to say that if Villain has TT/JJ when you have AcKc, you're making a negative ev call. And if they have QQ+ it's break-even with folding after rake (since it's a +0.4bb call?)... but sometimes opponents can have wacky shit and if you make a 1 time -4bb call in a standard stack off spot, it's fine since you can't see your opponents hand.
Also agree with the overbet bluff sizes. Most people are lucky if they are in a spot to overbet the river as a bluff once per session. If a person folds 50% of the time when you bet $300 into $225, but folds 80% of the time when you bet $400 into $225 you lose less money on the $400 bet "long run" when you get called ($150 compared to $80).
That 97s hand is wild. 5x should snap you off.
Another great video and thanks for the content.
#9 was really interesting and I would like to learn more about how always pursuing + EV can double to triple win rate.
Was that the mental game piece that Alex was talking about in the Triple Your Win rate video or was he referring to something else?
Looking for to the sub service later this fall/winter.
it’s about always taking the highest ev line, regardless of if it’s “high variance”. in the long run having the highest win rate will be the best for not losing over big samples.
we’d love to have you in a bootcamp or crash course, membership will only be for those who have completed one do the other!
It's really hard for me to fully accept the first hand especially given that we dont know the villains history, tendencies, or range.
What about 67? Maybe they called 45? They could have read you as a bluffer and thought you were bluffing with high bets. I've seen V call with 34 before.
Depending on their level, they may have been bluffing a flush. Maybe they called suited, and in seeing the hearts decide to bluff if the third heart came.
Looking forward to the new class, can't wait to see what the new offer is!
Can you do a single video where you go over your live game and explain your reasoning in more detail like explaining a few scenarios. Let’s say an Ace came on the river or let’s say the flush came in or let’s say the straight got there. I struggle with these situations because I always think they have it even when they don’t basically I always get in my head about the better ace kicker or the better hand always being in my opponents hand
Yea I knew I was wrong when you responded on my original comment. Pretty dumb looking back lol. Glad to see it got my name in one of your videos at least! Also my winrate at 1/2 and 1/3 at casinos is -7bb/h (240 hours) but in home games its 30+bb/h (512 hours). Anything come to mind that might cause this other than variance? Thanks for the content.
home games softer?
I remember when it dawned on me how outside of the box you can get to take advantage of a player.
Good reg bet about 400 into a 130 pot on the turn with TPTK. The opponent snap called. Riverrd the flush and raked in an almost 1000 pot at 1/3.
My first thought was the overbetter was a dufus, putting in that deep with one pair.
Then, I played all night with the guy. He was crushing like I’d never seen.
Later I realized this small town has a small player pool and he was eating them alive knowing their play style.
At one point the guy jammed (smaller eff stacks) with second pair and got called by ace high.
The solver would have thrown up in its mouth but this guy was making a living off extreme exploits.
I only play online microstakes poker but a lot of what you say applies to that aswell. On the mono boards, do you assume/know from experience that villains raise flushes so often? Online these boards are being slowplayed by fish quiet a bit I believe.
And doesn’t the AcKc hand become a fold because rake as this downgrades your 33.5% equity?
You pay 715$ for 2150$ on paper. Actually it's 715$ for 2042.5$ tho if you add 5% rake -> 715 / 2042.5 = 35%, which makes this a fold if your tables are raked 5%. Or am I wrong about something here?
In theory, you can actually range bet 23% on monotone boards and ace high baords and have very minimal EV loss. On all other boards range bet 33%. That small size range bet is amazing since so many villains raise their flushes against that size.
@@nathanebenezer3963 Exactly the strat I am using, in general I agree
I am probably just too much of a pussy to bet Pot/overbet turns on those boards ^^
I think due to the rake the call with aks is losee,
One thing I always find interesting is when someone uses the term "what are their bluffs" when they make a river bet (or any street). What makes all these creators, vloggers, anyone think theyre bluffing? The only options are not bluffing or the nuts.
People overplay hands. This is how you make money.
Hi there. LOVE IT! Thank you!! I tried to enroll in the bootcamp. Everything worked until the very last step when it said it would email the calendarly link to my email. Didn't get it. Tried 2x and did put in my correct email. Isn't in junk. Is calendarly working?
yes it’s working! email us bootcamp at hungryhorsepoker dot com
Here's another lie: "Running it multiple times when all-in smooths out the variance, and gives the underdog a better chance to get lucky."
Uh, no, actually it doesn't. Running it 100,000 times, picking up the turn and river cards after each run and shuffling them back into the deck for the next run, would smooth out the variance for the player who is the favorite. But two or three times? No. It's an illusion. And as for the underdog in this spot, the more times you run the board, the WORSE it is for him (remember, sometimes the underdog will get lucky on the early boards). What running it multiple times DOES do, however, is slow down the game. It also violates the spirit of big bet poker, the very appeal of which is the potential for huge short term swings in the space of a single hand. I mean, isn't that why everyone plays no-limit rather than limit? For the adrenaline rush? Certainly that's the aspect that appeals to the whales. So why the hell try to 'smooth out' the variance? If the short-term variance bothers you, if you don't like being all-in for your whole stack even when you're the favorite, then play limit hold'em. If you can stay awake. Or admit to yourself that you're on scared money and need to drop down in stakes.
learning how to breathe through my nose with my mouth open so I can catch some of these over bet bluff lines from Hungry Horse students. Gonna have to buy some ICP merch and grow out a nice neck beard. They won't accept me into the boot camp because my state has too many horses :(
Marc - would you be able to do some more content on your strategy going into flops in single raised pots? I've seen you mix checking range and c-betting half pot. I think videos to strengthen understanding here would be fantastic!
My understanding is that his MO is to bet your whole range around 1/2 pot when in position, and check your whole range when out of position.
This capitalizes on common low stakes mistakes and simplifies your thinking.
Does the strategy of the A9 hand change when villain has a 100 % of Ax of hearts in range. Because in my experience they don't raise that on the monotone flop.
Yo Hungry Horse I’m a college student that’s simply doesn’t have the bankroll to play 2/5. Waiting for that other course!
I have studied some small amounts with Jonathan Little and watch a ton of carrot corner videos on youtube and I think these are just as educational. Great tips but it’s super easy to misuse them, so I always have to be careful
I’m new to this channel. Do you ever play or offer advice on mixed games? I am getting back into NL hold em but really love the other games.
I'm surprised I didn't make this video too lol, because I'm sure I've made some bonehead comments too but I have been using some of your strategies over the last few months and I've personally seen my win rate go up so great stuff!
New coach 🐐
Can you comment about stack depth when most players buy in with 100BB, if i buy in with 200BB doesnt that effect all the strategy, like open range and bluffing? Thanks for your videos!
Big Jim can't even spell 'equilibrium'
tru
You can't spell equijlibrium without Jim!!!
Great vid. Keep the content coming. Love the max exploitive approach. I think maybe 2% of players will adjust vs you. The other 98% you’re running over keep printing bud!
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Smooch!!😘😘😘
Can not enroll on the website
what’s happening did it punish you?
Players will eventually adjust to these overbet bluffs unless you’re balancing all your strong hands with overbets too
Thank you Mr horse
I want your thoughts about online low stakes and you should show some of those results I'm trying to grind 10/25 and it's difficult wondering if 1/2 live is easier for more money but can't play live at the moment bankroll other reasons
Killing these guys out here with several of these concepts. Hope my opponents never find this stuff.
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Why was the 8♠️7♠️ hand a c-bet on the flop? Is it because you're c-betting 100% on flops with two high cards when you raise UTG? I get that you have the nut advantage on that specific flop, but I would want at least one spade, or a gutshot with something like 9T.
The set was by no means an easy call in that spot. Unless that was a next level bluff that was 99% the flush.
Most profitable advice I have ever picked up from poker vloggers.
After the flop: 100% check my entire range in early position.
you must be crushing
@@terencehill3972 I am right now.
It's really remarkable how they just take my check as a sign of weakness. I never knew it was possible.
Just the other day. I bet Kings preflop in the BB then checked them on a 10,6,7 rainbow flop. Like clockwork, one of the 5 callers decided he should bet. He got two callers and the turn was a King. I check and he bets again. I call. The river was a five and I jammed. He snap calls and I more than double up. Had I cbet the flop, I don't think any of them call as they see me as a tight player.
I love the 2/5 tags that think they would smash you. 😂😂 poker is far from dead when decent players can't tell they are wayyyy outclassed.
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How much $ for bootcamp?
Based off of the amount of fluff before even seeing the price I’m guessing it’s expensive but tbh i think he’s a great player based off what I’m seeing
I think it’s 4k
Marc! You are superstar and I empathize that after you get pushback from your customers who invested Thousands you are listening. However, I would shy from announcing a large scale, wide-audience business model like a subscription service until you are 90% sure it is going to happen.
I broke up with my current poker education sub in anticipation of your launch. That is on me, of course. The issue is now, if I want to join again, I am going to have to pay them 50% percent more as my price was locked from pre covid prices.
Sure, this is a bit of grousing. Just a thought from a minion in your growing fanbase.
hey! completely understand you cancelled your other sub and were looking forward to our wide audience membership model. sorry for any hassle this caused.
the good news: we still are launching a membership model. it’s going to only be for those who have completed either our bootcamp or crash course, but the crash course will be much more accessible (time and price point wise) and designed for players who don’t quite meet the requirements of bootcamp.
we decided we never truly want to open the doors to EVERYONE, as that sounded like a bit of a nightmare to us and we only want to work with players who are very serious about improving their game. it sounds like the crash course + membership could be a possible fit!
@@hungryhorsepoker Thanks for replying! I hope you price the The Crash Course for a wide audience and I look forward to investing in it when it launches. Also, thanks for all the PLO Double Board Bomb Pot content in your recent HH videos. I time stamp those and return to them before I go for a live session here in Texas.
This is so clickbated... common
Gentle? Have a beastly day
Someone tried to stack me for 7,2 bluff today. I had 9 high lol
Hi, I just found you. I think you provide LOTS of great information. I am well aware of poker, been playing for DECADES = You talk TOO FAST. My brain can't process that quickly !!!!
Is the bootcamp price REALLY 4 thousand dollars?
When you bet two times pot on the river is a bluff, don't you need to bet two times pot on the river with value?
I see Hungry Horse I click
Where do you usually play poker? Commerce? Let me know. I'll make sure I get on your table. I like free money:)
In general I agree with everything you say here, but to be fair to the comment about overbetting he questioned whether opponents would be elastic to those sizes. When you tell the solver that the player is folding more to the larger overbet that's making them elastic. Still, your point is well taken that even if they're minorly elastic the large overbet works better.
in this 87s hand there seems to be a lot of assumptions going in which are just not clear how to validate them (does he fold AK for 515 but not for 350 maybe, maybe not etc.) with actual data, so i don't think we can make the conclusion you are right and commenter is wrong. If your assumptions are true (not testable) you are right, if not and pool is a bit nittier (also not testable) commenter might be right...
We only get 2/5 game once a week. And I don't have a $25,000 bankroll anyway. No fair. :(
OMG....I'M BACK....15" POKER HAAAAARRRRDDD ♠️ ♠️ ♠️
omg we did it
@@hungryhorsepokerYES WE DID 🙌🙌🙌 $100 / HR ACHIEVED ! ! ! ♠️ ♠️ ♠️
I love your analysis but my one criticism is how often you generalize. It would be wise to address the issue of calling stations and /or thinking regs. At least speak to the existence of these types of players in your analysis.
tks teach enjoy your vegan
🍔 today :)
How do you know the bb, when you had the 87s, utg is not inelastic? How do you know he’s not a calling station with no fold button? Did you have a large enough sample size to have a proper meta game analysis on him? Also you had no blockers and you unblocked the trash you want him to have. I don’t hate it tbh. I like sick ish, but not strictly on assumptions. I like the theoretical thought process with the bet sizing but rhyme? Reason? Um also the AKs was a break even call because you thought that you had 33% chance to win, and you were getting 2 to 1. That sounds like you thought you were break even at best.
Dont bluff fish is the biggest lie
hey man, can you pull into one of the parking spots while browsing youtube so you're not blocking the gas pumps? there's people waiting.
Nah not big jim with his 6th coronoa
😂
Why are you choosing AhJx as his bluff hands. That makes zero sense. Something like 7h7x, 8h8x, sometimes maybe even ThTx makes more sense. JxTh is another. If they are turning showdown hands into bluffs it’s more likely to be those than AJ. Anyways. Nobody expect me makes a play like this. I made it about an hour ago actually. It’s was T high and I had JT with the J of the suit that came In. Anyways. Good stuff always. I just don’t think AJ was a very good example.
11:10 I agree with all of this except AK folding 100%. In Texas games and Florida games they definitely are not. Maybe 40%. Depends on where you are playing.
Who's "they" ?
Nvmd 6:48 ...