Whenever I watch one of Anders' videos I feel like a top general or a civilian leader getting a top secret intelligence briefing from the best analyst we have. This guy is amazing, he cuts through the noise like no one else.
If you are not watching Perun's channel, you should do that too. Perun focuses on bigger strategic and economic issues. It's a nice complaint to Anders' work.
@@plehmann72 IMHO the best day to day analysis is Reporting From Ukraine. Everybody else I've seen just reads the map updates without truly understanding what they are seeing.
I may have commented this before but Lt. Commander Nielsen does the Danish military a great honor with this channel. His analysis is always thought provoking and levels deeper than the general commentary!
Now my F'at Danish a*ss are going to explain how Russia blow up their own pipline, even though there were no income on it. Ok: You know the Mad sinister country that hate you above all right? Yes Russia! They got togeather one day and said, let's not make anymore money on Gas! Then they turned of the Spigot. Then they said, no It's not enough, let's blow it up to... Wortless... logic, just like you propaganda idiots always do.
The one drawback of this analysis (which is otherwise very reasonable) is that it assumes that decisions are being made in one room and the results filtering out to the field from there. With people like Prigozhin driving some of the activity, and perhaps in a form of competition with the MoD and others, it seems likely that there is a disjoint in decision making. In contrast to a decision to maximize for either a short and long war, this is more of a scenario where the turmoil in decision making seems to be minimizing chances of success for either.
Very important to take into account that Russia has a presidental election coming up in 2024. If he doesn't succeed, that would be a convenient moment for different power groups to remove him.
@@j.calvert3361 Yeah I think internally the goal isn't to 'win' the Ukraine war (long or short) but to maximize your position for whenever the war does end. That for Putin means 'winning' the war but for others it means being seen to have won your small part of it - even at the expense of overall victory - which might explain the extravagant wastefulness at Bakhmut.
I think the result of the 2024 election has already been decided. The question is will the Russian population be happy about a landslide victory for Putin.
Anders' analysis is great, as always. I find them somewhat lacking in sources, though. Does anyone know about that survey of the Russian support for the war he mentions? Links would be most appreciated!
The missile campaign is popular with the Russian people. It seems like a win, in the way the revenge firebombing of Germany & Japan was popular with the Allies populatin in WWII. As a strategy its already failed as its mobilized Europe into more assistance, more air defence and hardened Ukraine’s stance for a meaningful battlefield victory. But Putin again is trapped by strategies that are “try this?” & judging them on their popularity with the general population or the right-wing of Russia, not their actual effect on Ukraine the enemy. Russia is running its war like a political campaign not a military one
It's also worth noting that the scale of russia's missile attacks has significantly been reduced since the beginning of the war. In fact there were several months of barely any. Russia was clearly sheparding their missile use this summer. And even after deciding to do this missile campaign, it is not like feb/march. Especially now that we're seeing the miss rate of russian missile attacks rise, as they use worse and worse tech.
I watch several channels that provide daily battle updates, but after a few days of minutiae of gains/losses, I am usually lost as to the big picture. I love when I get a notification for one of your new videos. You really tie it all together for me, and you answer so many viewer questions which I often have but don’t ask. Thank you so much for your efforts in making and posting your analyses and opinions.
You would probably really like Perun then. He is someone who obviously deals with long term risk analysis and deals with the war in a macroeconomic way. www.youtube.com/@PerunAU
Again you delivered a top video!! Like the others, it's filled with a lot of information and educated opinions. You and Jacke Bro are the top video producers about the war in Ukraine. :)
Good points as always. I think that one of the main things this war has taught us is that you can not ascribe logic to anything that Russia does these days.
I think that on the contrary all the decisions taken by the Kremlin are logical. it is Russian logic itself that is based on bad assumptions. Like invading Ukraine to start.
Your ability to take so many different factors into account when analyzing the situation and making predictions about the war is truly admirable, Anders!
Authoritarian regimes like Putin's have an inherent limited lifespan, because in order to survive they require to eliminate all competent threats and if they are successful the leadership then has fewer competent people to draw on assist the regime. Ultimately fewer and fewer people assisting the leadership leads to bad decisions and worse outcomes. This is exactly how Russia is losing in the Ukraine. Hence as time goes on Putin's capacity for effectively managing the society and war may well be far lower than you give him credit for Anders. Great video. Thank you and all the best. Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
I guess 'limited lifespan' is a relative term. North Korea has had a very authoritarian regime since 1948 with no change in sight. Same with China. And the Soviet Union lasted 70 years.
@@LarsPallesen Fair point. Re-reading my comment I can see a clear disconnect between what I wrote and what I was trying to express. Dictatorship rather than authoritarian would have been clearer. The Soviet Union, and China until recently, were not dictatorships as Russia and China are today. They were run by The Party which was in both cases a very large group of people. I suspect that the only reason that the North Korea regime survives is by a combination of tyranny towards its own people, by isolating them from the rest of the world and not really being important enough for a major power to interfere with its domestic politics (having China support them until recently also helps). If NK ever faced a major challenge I'm quite sure it would not function. Have a good day Lars.
The thing about that is, though, that when a regime falls, it opens up the field for the outside talent. They may have stayed out of the official power structures because of the diminishing opportunities there, etc. If there is no democratic push, a new group could simply step in. When it comes down to it, most people in existing power structures are there to earn a paycheck, not following a 20-year plan to rise up the ranks to rule the country. The hunger for power only really comes in play in the highest ranks and even then it is tempered by survival instincts. If someone steps in to lead, they might simply let them, at least for the time being.
Ok, I have one suggestion for new video. Logistics. What is the current situation ? I ve heard everyone speaking about how important logistic is butI ve heard no one make analysis of it. Especially after fall of Crimea bridge.
Great analysis, once again. What interests me is - what is actually going on with France? While I'm already upset about the strange attitude of my German government, France presents itself as, I don't know how to put it diplomatically, a traitor to democracy...
Excellent analysis as always. There are so much people pulling ideas out of their butt when they talk about the war but who are given large platforms by the mainstream media to bumble on about the conflict in Ukraine. It's very unhelpful, especially when combined with the nonstop propaganda machine that is Russia. Thanks for the rational and well thought-out videos you put on the topic. It's an immensely valuable service.
Being able to sort our the NATO cun*ts from the weed is an : an immensely valuable skill. Clownface. If the Nukes start falling I hope in my heart that anything you love will die first in front of your eyes... I take that back, I know you guys are Sosiopathts, you dont know what love even is.. anyhow... good luck.
Not just the Russian propaganda. Everything coming out of the west is wildly biased as well. It's very hard to dig through the partisan garbage to find out what's going on at all.
Now my F'at Danish a*ss are going to explain how Russia blow up their own pipline, even though there were no income on it. Ok: You know the Mad sinister country that hate you above all right? Yes Russia! They got togeather one day and said, let's not make anymore money on Gas! Then they turned of the Spigot. Then they said, no It's not enough, let's blow it up to... Wortless... logic, just like you propaganda idiots always do.
Great analysis. Thanks again Anders! I suggest that given the governance of Russia, and governance of the military, I'm not sure if we can assume that various actions/decisions by the aforementioned were driven by logic or reason. Russian actions are more accurately described as flailings by an angry and spoiled child - perhaps a better way of looking at it? 😝
I believe that the leaders of Russia are very misinformed, both in their general view of the world, which includes a lot of mythical thinking, and the situation in Ukraine itself. Their whole system is built on lies. Telling the truth gets you nowhere in Russia.
@@rustyheyman214 respectfully I disagree - there is clear logic on display in what we are seeing. The issue is not that Russia is being illogical, it's that a lot of the assumptions Putin is making are ill-informed assumptions. Add to that the dismal state of the Russian military and the lack of domestic support for the "special military operation" and the outcome of this war is a foregone conclusion.
Actually it was a logic decision, however the information available and expectations have been wildly off. Remember, the clear majority of analysts didn't give Ukraine more than a week to withstand Russian Forces. No matter which side. This too is the reason why we see these weird decisions by the Kremlin, as they are lost how to actually deal with this war. Only since the new general has taken over we see a more comprehensive and realistic approach. Which doesn't mean we wouldn't see weird stuff anymore.
Congratulations Anders for your videos, I think it has been one of the best to date. The analysis of Putin's social contract with the Russian people is brilliant. It remains to be seen what Putin's response will be along the way, greetings.
An Analyst (I've forgotten who) said at the the beginning of the war that the problem with most NATO pre-war analysis/predictions was that they, at their core, assumed a competent adversary. That is not what we have seen so far. What we MIGHT be seeing is not so much a dilemma as a compromise. A bad one. Or we are seeing the war turning into 2 separate wars, one waged by the Russian army and one waged by the Wagner group: The Russian Army acting defensively (the long war) and at the same time the Wagner Group doing their own offensive thing at Bakhmut for a)loot b) Prigozhin's political ambitions.
Fragmentation is definitely a thing on the Russian side. It doesn’t explain the rapid consumption of missiles or the lack of political preparation, though.
@@anderspuck You assume there's some rational deliberation behind it. I see sheer desperation to grab any measure, however ineffective or counterproductive, to postpone the inevitable collapse. Btw thanks for your analysis!
exactly, the presumption that Putin has a plan is nonsense, he is an opportunist, not a strategist, he is hoping that something will come up and he will go home with a win=some territory in Ukraine🤡 which of course is not going to happen, and many people in Russia have understood that the war is lost, they have thrown all their forces to capture Bakhmut and they have not succeeded, Crimea is cut off and the Russians will have to retreat sooner or later, people in Russia are preparing for life after Putin and they are very scared of the tribunals in the Hague, watch what is happening in the South-the retreat of the Russian army to Crimea, and the interruption of the supply line around Melitopol, especially a small town called Tokmak and the railway bridge🤡 there is an information stop from the Ukrainian side, but sometimes news get through.....according to military experts the Russians will face disaster by early or late spring
While Putin will certainly take all the help he can get with his failing war effort in Ukraine I'm pretty certain he won't accept a competition for leadership in Kremlin fought by proxy between the Russian army and the Wagner Group in Ukraine. Serious challengers to Putin's leadership are in the habit of dying very suddenly.
I appreciate you giving your true assessment and not trying to make it fit a narrative. You give your assessment and not propaganda. Thank you. Great job!
Once again Anders you deliver to us a well reasoned and thought out analysis of this whole sad situation. I sincerely hope that your videos do the rounds in the higher echelon of NATO and amongst our political leaders. I feel you are one of the few Western commentators that can understand the Russian military/Putin mindset. The elephant in the round regarding this content was will Ukraine give Putin the break to decide which scenario he goes with. Also like to hear your views on Biden and Macron openly talking about peace talks with Russia. Are we going to see these two standing at Orly airport with a bit of paper and declaring "peace in our time"?
Of course. That's what Russia has been doing even back in 2014 when they annexed the Crimea. They would love to have a ceasefire and keep the current territories, spend a few years rebuilding their military and try again. We can only hope that the west does not agree to it and continues supporting Ukraine with the weapons.
Honestly, it seems like Russia is making this up as they go. Especially since their structure lacks mid-level commanders having independence vs. the west where we encourage on-the-fly thinking for the objective. Bahkmut is a prime example: the town itself holds little tactical value but they've wasted so much on it for the political gain.
It kind of reminds me a lot of German command during WW1, which, after they failed in the beginning, kind of did not have a plan past tomorrow, so to speak. Like, they would plan massive offensives and stuff, some of which were marvellous and very successful. But, because they had no actual war plan past the next day, they would make breakthroughs and then totally fail to take advantage of them. They also counted too much on politics and the public opinion of France and its allies, particularly on anti-war feelings of soldiers on the front. We see this too with Russia and Russian media's constant ramblings about how public opinion in Ukraine's allies is turning against the war, as if negative public opinion in Western countries, especially the USA, has ever had any effect on stopping war (think Iraq). And I know someone might reply to this "muh but Vietnam" or something to that effect, to which I myself would say that negative public opinion did not defeat the American army; the Vietnamese army did. Same situation here, I think. What I mean by this is that Ukraine, if she is to be defeated, will be triumphed over by Western populaces unhappy with the war, but rather will need to be crushed by the Russian army... and this is obviously nowhere near happening.
It would never be possible to make it happen in less than the almost 10 months until today (I am happy that you posted a new video and will watch it in a few minutes)…
I started the video assuming they were "half-heartedly" doing option one, but your video (and that the ministry is backing Prigozhin) is very convincing. Thanks so much.
Great analysis as usual Anders and based on the points you make, a short war does appear to make sense. The Ukrainians have been talking about a special counter-measure being actioned shortly - intriguing...
Honestly Russia’s strategic efforts seem incoherent. Scenario 1 is the logical choice. But they seem to be trying to have both a short war and win the war. They are doing neither well.
Yep, ever the loyal ex-KGB man (as opposed to ex-military), you can be sure the 'optics' are never far from Pootin's mind. And with public support down to more than half what it was only 4 months ago, even he can read the proverbial 'handwriting on the wall'.
I think there is a good chance that the Russian army will collapse or partially collapse here over the winter, due to lack of basic supplies for the soldiers.
I think so too. Especially a recent drone footage of russian soldiers in a trench reacting very, very slowly to a grenade exploding at 1 m distance is telling. Hypothermia is coming!
I looked at some of Russias stockpiles. If the numbers are correct, Russia is running low on their most expensive missiles, but they are replenishing stocks by using factories. At a slower rate than they burn trough them though. Russia has enourmous amounts of the lower quality rockets so they wont run out completely in a few years still.
Scenario 1, Russia cannot halt Ukraine progress with untrained mobiks without stable supply, without winter equipment and constantly hit by precision munition guided by drones. Even if the could stall the Ukrainians, they cannot build more adcanced weapons when sanctioned and they struggle to mobilise and equip more men. Scenario 2, Russia didn't have competence to do combined arms attacks and now most of the trained soldiers are dead. To do advanced operations without trained soldiers, without communication and without advanced equipment like thermo vision systems etc is not possible.
Whenever I watch one of Anders' videos I feel like a top general or a civilian leader getting a top secret intelligence briefing from the best analyst we have. This guy is amazing, he cuts through the noise like no one else.
If you are not watching Perun's channel, you should do that too. Perun focuses on bigger strategic and economic issues. It's a nice complaint to Anders' work.
Too bad Putin isn't getting these briefings.
@@GeoEstes We want to keep Anders from falling off a balcony! I get your point. Maybe we can just give Putin an anonymous transcript.
@@whom382 100% agree. Any advice on where to get the best battlefield operational analysis?
Weeb Union and Ukraine Matters are my current go to
@@plehmann72 IMHO the best day to day analysis is Reporting From Ukraine. Everybody else I've seen just reads the map updates without truly understanding what they are seeing.
Putin has no plan after the first 3 days
He's up shit creek without a paddle .
And that pretty much sums it up.
The plan is to get his army turned into barbecued chicken and win the world turret toss competition.
"Putin is not like Hitler or Mussolini in that [he is not charismatic]." Now that's how to insult someone!
Oh, come on. Not even Putin himself would disagree. 😛
😂😂😂
He's only beaten by Kim Jong Un in regards to charisma. 😂🤣😂
That's an insult? Everyone can see he's not the extravert, charismatic type. The vast majority of people is not. So how can that be an insult?
@@peterflohr7827 If the difference between Putin and Hitler is charisma, what does that imply about their similarities?
I may have commented this before but Lt. Commander Nielsen does the Danish military a great honor with this channel. His analysis is always thought provoking and levels deeper than the general commentary!
Now my F'at Danish a*ss are going to explain how Russia blow up their own pipline, even though there were no income on it.
Ok:
You know the Mad sinister country that hate you above all right? Yes Russia! They got togeather one day and said, let's not make anymore money on Gas!
Then they turned of the Spigot.
Then they said, no It's not enough, let's blow it up to...
Wortless... logic, just like you propaganda idiots always do.
Tak!
The one drawback of this analysis (which is otherwise very reasonable) is that it assumes that decisions are being made in one room and the results filtering out to the field from there. With people like Prigozhin driving some of the activity, and perhaps in a form of competition with the MoD and others, it seems likely that there is a disjoint in decision making. In contrast to a decision to maximize for either a short and long war, this is more of a scenario where the turmoil in decision making seems to be minimizing chances of success for either.
Good point.
I think this is playing a big role. Different competing factions going their own way, all the way down the chain of command.
Very important to take into account that Russia has a presidental election coming up in 2024. If he doesn't succeed, that would be a convenient moment for different power groups to remove him.
@@j.calvert3361 Yeah I think internally the goal isn't to 'win' the Ukraine war (long or short) but to maximize your position for whenever the war does end. That for Putin means 'winning' the war but for others it means being seen to have won your small part of it - even at the expense of overall victory - which might explain the extravagant wastefulness at Bakhmut.
I think the result of the 2024 election has already been decided.
The question is will the Russian population be happy about a landslide victory for Putin.
Small point: you can't have a 'best' or 'worst' choice out of two; it's 'better' or 'worse'...
Anders' analysis is great, as always.
I find them somewhat lacking in sources, though.
Does anyone know about that survey of the Russian support for the war he mentions?
Links would be most appreciated!
Amazing analysis, one of my favorites channels.
Greetings from Guatemala. Thank you for this excellent video.
Thank you Anders, you outline the scenarios and then present the evidence for you conclusions, just excellent.
I know these videos are difficult to produce, but I eagerly await the intelligent updates you provide!
The missile campaign is popular with the Russian people. It seems like a win, in the way the revenge firebombing of Germany & Japan was popular with the Allies populatin in WWII. As a strategy its already failed as its mobilized Europe into more assistance, more air defence and hardened Ukraine’s stance for a meaningful battlefield victory. But Putin again is trapped by strategies that are “try this?” & judging them on their popularity with the general population or the right-wing of Russia, not their actual effect on Ukraine the enemy.
Russia is running its war like a political campaign not a military one
It's also worth noting that the scale of russia's missile attacks has significantly been reduced since the beginning of the war. In fact there were several months of barely any. Russia was clearly sheparding their missile use this summer. And even after deciding to do this missile campaign, it is not like feb/march. Especially now that we're seeing the miss rate of russian missile attacks rise, as they use worse and worse tech.
Sorry to disappoint you here, but also the left-wing, especially the communists, support the Invasion of Ukraine.
I agree with this. Russia doesn't seem to HAVE an overall strategy that lasts longer than 30-60 days at a time.
Your insight is brilliant and breath of knowledge impressive. Thank you
He has been wrong on every analysis.
@@huntergatherer7796 You look prejudiced.
What about of his foreseeing of big war (in January) ?
Really great food for thought! Thanks again from 🇨🇦
I watch several channels that provide daily battle updates, but after a few days of minutiae of gains/losses, I am usually lost as to the big picture. I love when I get a notification for one of your new videos. You really tie it all together for me, and you answer so many viewer questions which I often have but don’t ask. Thank you so much for your efforts in making and posting your analyses and opinions.
You would probably really like Perun then. He is someone who obviously deals with long term risk analysis and deals with the war in a macroeconomic way.
www.youtube.com/@PerunAU
Thanks
Face and defeat Putin now OR face him again in the future! RS. Canada
Thank you so very much!
Thank you very, very much !!
Again you delivered a top video!!
Like the others, it's filled with a lot of information and educated opinions.
You and Jacke Bro are the top video producers about the war in Ukraine. :)
Good points as always.
I think that one of the main things this war has taught us is that you can not ascribe logic to anything that Russia does these days.
I think also great analysis. But I‘m sceptical that the russians are so reflected.
I think that on the contrary all the decisions taken by the Kremlin are logical. it is Russian logic itself that is based on bad assumptions. Like invading Ukraine to start.
Your analysis is so helpful. Thank you!
Do I hear echos of Vlad Vexler in this video? Well done.
Vlad wasnt the first one to talk about the russian social contract. It's pretty well known in academic circles.
Anders, an excellent report again.
Awesome Anders 🇩🇰🇺🇦✌️
Tack!
Thank you. Thought provoking.
Great analysis as always. Thank you for sharing your thoughts.
Thank you!
Your ability to take so many different factors into account when analyzing the situation and making predictions about the war is truly admirable, Anders!
Authoritarian regimes like Putin's have an inherent limited lifespan, because in order to survive they require to eliminate all competent threats and if they are successful the leadership then has fewer competent people to draw on assist the regime. Ultimately fewer and fewer people assisting the leadership leads to bad decisions and worse outcomes. This is exactly how Russia is losing in the Ukraine. Hence as time goes on Putin's capacity for effectively managing the society and war may well be far lower than you give him credit for Anders.
Great video. Thank you and all the best.
Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
I guess 'limited lifespan' is a relative term. North Korea has had a very authoritarian regime since 1948 with no change in sight. Same with China. And the Soviet Union lasted 70 years.
@@LarsPallesen Fair point. Re-reading my comment I can see a clear disconnect between what I wrote and what I was trying to express.
Dictatorship rather than authoritarian would have been clearer. The Soviet Union, and China until recently, were not dictatorships as Russia and China are today. They were run by The Party which was in both cases a very large group of people.
I suspect that the only reason that the North Korea regime survives is by a combination of tyranny towards its own people, by isolating them from the rest of the world and not really being important enough for a major power to interfere with its domestic politics (having China support them until recently also helps). If NK ever faced a major challenge I'm quite sure it would not function.
Have a good day Lars.
@@ivancho5854 Juche AFAIK is also basically a religion or a cult..
The thing about that is, though, that when a regime falls, it opens up the field for the outside talent. They may have stayed out of the official power structures because of the diminishing opportunities there, etc. If there is no democratic push, a new group could simply step in. When it comes down to it, most people in existing power structures are there to earn a paycheck, not following a 20-year plan to rise up the ranks to rule the country. The hunger for power only really comes in play in the highest ranks and even then it is tempered by survival instincts. If someone steps in to lead, they might simply let them, at least for the time being.
Ok, I have one suggestion for new video. Logistics. What is the current situation ?
I ve heard everyone speaking about how important logistic is butI ve heard no one make analysis of it. Especially after fall of Crimea bridge.
Thanks for your videos and analysis Anders. Your level-headedness and the opposite of sensationalism are much appreciated.
Erudite, succinct and informative. Thank You, Mr. Nielsen.
Great analysis, once again. What interests me is - what is actually going on with France? While I'm already upset about the strange attitude of my German government, France presents itself as, I don't know how to put it diplomatically, a traitor to democracy...
Thank you... Another simple, straight forward and well thought out presentation. And I suspect you are right.
The best analyst out here on YT
Som vanlig en logisk og god analyse. Tusen takk. 👍
Very good points
Excellent analysis as always. There are so much people pulling ideas out of their butt when they talk about the war but who are given large platforms by the mainstream media to bumble on about the conflict in Ukraine. It's very unhelpful, especially when combined with the nonstop propaganda machine that is Russia. Thanks for the rational and well thought-out videos you put on the topic. It's an immensely valuable service.
So true.
Being able to sort our the NATO cun*ts from the weed is an : an immensely valuable skill. Clownface. If the Nukes start falling I hope in my heart that anything you love will die first in front of your eyes... I take that back, I know you guys are Sosiopathts, you dont know what love even is.. anyhow... good luck.
Not just the Russian propaganda. Everything coming out of the west is wildly biased as well. It's very hard to dig through the partisan garbage to find out what's going on at all.
Now my F'at Danish a*ss are going to explain how Russia blow up their own pipline, even though there were no income on it.
Ok:
You know the Mad sinister country that hate you above all right? Yes Russia! They got togeather one day and said, let's not make anymore money on Gas!
Then they turned of the Spigot.
Then they said, no It's not enough, let's blow it up to...
Wortless... logic, just like you propaganda idiots always do.
Thank You for a very sharp disection of the current situation
“Everyone got a plan until they get a punch in the mouth” - Mike Tyson
Great analysis. Thanks again Anders! I suggest that given the governance of Russia, and governance of the military, I'm not sure if we can assume that various actions/decisions by the aforementioned were driven by logic or reason. Russian actions are more accurately described as flailings by an angry and spoiled child - perhaps a better way of looking at it? 😝
I believe that the leaders of Russia are very misinformed, both in their general view of the world, which includes a lot of mythical thinking, and the situation in Ukraine itself.
Their whole system is built on lies. Telling the truth gets you nowhere in Russia.
Agreed You can even argue that the whole invasion was not based on logic.
@@rustyheyman214 respectfully I disagree - there is clear logic on display in what we are seeing. The issue is not that Russia is being illogical, it's that a lot of the assumptions Putin is making are ill-informed assumptions. Add to that the dismal state of the Russian military and the lack of domestic support for the "special military operation" and the outcome of this war is a foregone conclusion.
Actually it was a logic decision, however the information available and expectations have been wildly off.
Remember, the clear majority of analysts didn't give Ukraine more than a week to withstand Russian Forces. No matter which side.
This too is the reason why we see these weird decisions by the Kremlin, as they are lost how to actually deal with this war.
Only since the new general has taken over we see a more comprehensive and realistic approach. Which doesn't mean we wouldn't see weird stuff anymore.
Imho Russia works more like an ant nest than like a centralized-logic organism. Bad side effects.
Another brilliant analysis. Thx.
yes, i found this video useful. YOU THE MAN.
I also don't think Putin needs a social contract. It has probably been easier for him to have one, but Stalin didn't need one, and neither does he.
I really appreciate your breakdown. Really sharp, really makes a lot of sense. Thanks for all your work.
Congratulations Anders for your videos, I think it has been one of the best to date. The analysis of Putin's social contract with the Russian people is brilliant. It remains to be seen what Putin's response will be along the way, greetings.
Thanks. Glad you liked it.
Great reporting 👏 👍 Glory, Victory and Peace to Ukraine 🇬🇧
An Analyst (I've forgotten who) said at the the beginning of the war that the problem with most NATO pre-war analysis/predictions was that they, at their core, assumed a competent adversary. That is not what we have seen so far. What we MIGHT be seeing is not so much a dilemma as a compromise. A bad one. Or we are seeing the war turning into 2 separate wars, one waged by the Russian army and one waged by the Wagner group: The Russian Army acting defensively (the long war) and at the same time the Wagner Group doing their own offensive thing at Bakhmut for a)loot b) Prigozhin's political ambitions.
Fragmentation is definitely a thing on the Russian side. It doesn’t explain the rapid consumption of missiles or the lack of political preparation, though.
@@anderspuck You assume there's some rational deliberation behind it. I see sheer desperation to grab any measure, however ineffective or counterproductive, to postpone the inevitable collapse. Btw thanks for your analysis!
exactly, the presumption that Putin has a plan is nonsense, he is an opportunist, not a strategist, he is hoping that something will come up and he will go home with a win=some territory in Ukraine🤡 which of course is not going to happen, and many people in Russia have understood that the war is lost, they have thrown all their forces to capture Bakhmut and they have not succeeded, Crimea is cut off and the Russians will have to retreat sooner or later, people in Russia are preparing for life after Putin and they are very scared of the tribunals in the Hague, watch what is happening in the South-the retreat of the Russian army to Crimea, and the interruption of the supply line around Melitopol, especially a small town called Tokmak and the railway bridge🤡 there is an information stop from the Ukrainian side, but sometimes news get through.....according to military experts the Russians will face disaster by early or late spring
@@peterflohr7827 I don't think I assume some big plan. I rather guess that's the assumption of those who believe in the long war plan.
While Putin will certainly take all the help he can get with his failing war effort in Ukraine I'm pretty certain he won't accept a competition for leadership in Kremlin fought by proxy between the Russian army and the Wagner Group in Ukraine. Serious challengers to Putin's leadership are in the habit of dying very suddenly.
Best Ukraine videos on YT. Thanks as always Anders!
I always learn from and enjoy (as much as one can on this subject) your videos on this war. Your lecture/ teaching style is awesome. Thank you
Good stuff (once again) Anders. Thank you.
I appreciate you giving your true assessment and not trying to make it fit a narrative. You give your assessment and not propaganda. Thank you. Great job!
Once again Anders you deliver to us a well reasoned and thought out analysis of this whole sad situation. I sincerely hope that your videos do the rounds in the higher echelon of NATO and amongst our political leaders. I feel you are one of the few Western commentators that can understand the Russian military/Putin mindset. The elephant in the round regarding this content was will Ukraine give Putin the break to decide which scenario he goes with.
Also like to hear your views on Biden and Macron openly talking about peace talks with Russia. Are we going to see these two standing at Orly airport with a bit of paper and declaring "peace in our time"?
Not at all. Biden had a prerequisite for peace talks: withdrawal from Ukraine by Russia. Predictably Putin declined the offer.
I really appreciate your thinking through this question.
Awesome. You look very comfortable I this presentation format. Looking forward to more videos from you. :)
Brilliant!
Amazing as always. Thanks for continuing to cover this topic with such care.
Of course. That's what Russia has been doing even back in 2014 when they annexed the Crimea. They would love to have a ceasefire and keep the current territories, spend a few years rebuilding their military and try again. We can only hope that the west does not agree to it and continues supporting Ukraine with the weapons.
Honestly, it seems like Russia is making this up as they go. Especially since their structure lacks mid-level commanders having independence vs. the west where we encourage on-the-fly thinking for the objective. Bahkmut is a prime example: the town itself holds little tactical value but they've wasted so much on it for the political gain.
It kind of reminds me a lot of German command during WW1, which, after they failed in the beginning, kind of did not have a plan past tomorrow, so to speak. Like, they would plan massive offensives and stuff, some of which were marvellous and very successful. But, because they had no actual war plan past the next day, they would make breakthroughs and then totally fail to take advantage of them. They also counted too much on politics and the public opinion of France and its allies, particularly on anti-war feelings of soldiers on the front. We see this too with Russia and Russian media's constant ramblings about how public opinion in Ukraine's allies is turning against the war, as if negative public opinion in Western countries, especially the USA, has ever had any effect on stopping war (think Iraq). And I know someone might reply to this "muh but Vietnam" or something to that effect, to which I myself would say that negative public opinion did not defeat the American army; the Vietnamese army did. Same situation here, I think. What I mean by this is that Ukraine, if she is to be defeated, will be triumphed over by Western populaces unhappy with the war, but rather will need to be crushed by the Russian army... and this is obviously nowhere near happening.
Thanks!
Great analysis as usual, thanks!
Good and interesting analysis. Very informative, as always.
Tusend Takk!
Excellent! Thx
Brilliant as usual! Thank you very much for your insights! 👍😎
Great explanation of what is going on.
Best OSINT analyst ever.
Very good analysis! 👍👍👍
It would never be possible to make it happen in less than the almost 10 months until today (I am happy that you posted a new video and will watch it in a few minutes)…
An excellently argued analysis, thanks for sharing!
Super opdate. Keep up the good work.
Another excellent video Anders. Thanks 👍
Thank you for your insight
Som altid super analyse.👍
I started the video assuming they were "half-heartedly" doing option one, but your video (and that the ministry is backing Prigozhin) is very convincing. Thanks so much.
Great analysis as usual Anders and based on the points you make, a short war does appear to make sense. The Ukrainians have been talking about a special counter-measure being actioned shortly - intriguing...
Maybe it's longer range drones attacking Russian airfields, port, and ships? They are reported working on domestic longer range drones in the air.
Excellent. A really excellent analysis!!
Solid analysis! Thumbs up!
Thank you. It is so great to get this level of logical analysis. Much appreciated
Honestly Russia’s strategic efforts seem incoherent. Scenario 1 is the logical choice. But they seem to be trying to have both a short war and win the war. They are doing neither well.
I think you are right. It's all or nothing for him now. He has been backed into this corner by so many factors. Great video!!
Yep, ever the loyal ex-KGB man (as opposed to ex-military), you can be sure the 'optics' are never far from Pootin's mind. And with public support down to more than half what it was only 4 months ago, even he can read the proverbial 'handwriting on the wall'.
Very interesting thoughtful analysis. Thank you.
Like always, an amazingly clever and brilliant analysis 👍👍👍👍👍
Good analysis. Thanks
You are doing an excellent job.
Thanks.
Som altid en fremragende analyse, Anders! Det er en stor fornøjelse at se dine videoer.
Your opponents can't guess your strategy if you don't have a strategy...
That's a more highbrow way of saying what I was thinking: Anders, what about,
option 3: there is no plan!
Or at least no coherent top down plan
Very good analysis as always.
I think there is a good chance that the Russian army will collapse or partially collapse here over the winter, due to lack of basic supplies for the soldiers.
... hypothermia is also probably going to kill thousands
Possibly then Wanger group will take over power from current regime. Imagine power going from one criminal to another. Real prison dude this time
I think so too. Especially a recent drone footage of russian soldiers in a trench reacting very, very slowly to a grenade exploding at 1 m distance is telling. Hypothermia is coming!
Fingers crossed!
can't wait to see it!
Thank you Anders. A great and highly interesting video as always.
I looked at some of Russias stockpiles. If the numbers are correct, Russia is running low on their most expensive missiles, but they are replenishing stocks by using factories. At a slower rate than they burn trough them though. Russia has enourmous amounts of the lower quality rockets so they wont run out completely in a few years still.
as always some of the best quick form analysis of the war, tak Anders
Scenario 1, Russia cannot halt Ukraine progress with untrained mobiks without stable supply, without winter equipment and constantly hit by precision munition guided by drones. Even if the could stall the Ukrainians, they cannot build more adcanced weapons when sanctioned and they struggle to mobilise and equip more men.
Scenario 2, Russia didn't have competence to do combined arms attacks and now most of the trained soldiers are dead. To do advanced operations without trained soldiers, without communication and without advanced equipment like thermo vision systems etc is not possible.
Thanks for this!
As usual, a great analysis !
I agree!!