Lithium Supply by Country: Where are the Opportunities? // Part 3
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 มิ.ย. 2024
- If lithium forecasts are conservative and don't account for potential new supply, where are the opportunities for growing the lithium supply by country throughout the rest of the decade?
This is Part 3 of the global lithium supply chain video.
Part 1: • Will Refining be the B...
Part 2: • Are Global Lithium Sup...
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Timeline
00:00 Introduction
01:22 Credits and Thanks
04:53 A Recent History of Lithium Supply and Demand
08:44 Australia / 2-3 Years // Brownfields Projects
09:55 Australia / 2-3 Years // Faster Extraction Rate
15:11 Australia / 2-3 Years // Two Non-Starters
16:15 Australia / 4-7 Years // Greenfields Projects
22:13 South American Lithium Brines
23:51 China // Lepidolites to the Rescue?
27:22 United States // Lithium Clays and Brines
29:26 The Potential of Direct Lithium Extraction
31:31 Africa // A Wild Card with Huge Potential
35:25 Canada // Hard Rock and Lithium Brines
36:14 Other Countries
36:48 Next Video, Shake the Money Tree, Credits
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
Great video. For defeating the troll of ignorance, I grant you these 50 gold credits.
LOL! Thanks man 💯
You can't be calling dollarydoos gold; you have to leave room above for Loonies, Simoleons, Euros, and Pounds. AUD would land at maybe pig iron.
Only Groats are accepted as Legal Tender.
Brilliant insight that no other Tesla channel is providing.
🤠🙌
Incredible work Jordan!! This will help to keep our outlooks grounded in reality and hopefully help governments here and abroad to be part of the solution of speeding up paperwork responsibly to help us get more supply for this huge transition.
😊
Excellent presentation. It is good to see the problems outlined. Now we can advocate for appropriate solutions.
🙌🎯
We? I got no bullions in my money sack.
As for Brasil, there are lithium reserves in the center and north-est of Brasil. Mining projects are in their infancy, Lithium Valley Brazil in Minas Gerais for example. Though rock formations in Brasil dating back from Pangaea are similar to those in Africa and Australia (Antarctica too). We can't be sure without studies, but reserves could be much higher.
I agree! Brazil is promising
Thanks for doing this. Best of the best on these deep dives.
Just a note that spending more on drilling equipment/crews can speed up the exploration timeframe. There is a limited number of trained crews/rigs available, but that can be expanded.
We've seen the Boreing company increase digging speed significantly, in part by taking more capital-heavy approaches (having spare parts on site rather than ordering as needed to increase uptime)
I also wonder at possible wins from AI analysis of ground penetrating radar, seismic echos, etc to map the area and better direct the drilling
These will take time, so it's not something for the next couple of years, but in the 5+ year horizon such changes could start to have an impact.
Great comment thanks!
AI analysis of geologic survey data isn't a new thing though, so you shouldn't expect anything revolutionary there.
Tesla should be a $10K a month patreon supporter. $10K a month that saves you a $billion here or a $billion there. Not a bad ROI...
$10k a month sponsorship level entails
all of previous perks plus: Will fly out for no charge (but at the patreon's expense) twice a year to give one or two day seminars to executives/engineers.
😁💯
Unfortunately, "should" has no meaning. "I should lose weight" probably means, "I ain't gonna."
What if… as with attribution marketing for sale of products you were able to make a link to jobs at Tesla or other EV companies in related departments the video dives into? Then channel gets recruiters rewards for the referral? “Has this video inspired to you? Do to want to participate in the next phase of xxxxx expansion in the space click the link below to see roles for people in this area of research and development“
@thelimitingfactor Elon might go for it, if it took place on HIS platform. XXX
Tesla probably already has their own consultants they hire, and unless there's good news they gain nothing from making this kinda stuff public. Basically Tesla or any company for that mather has nothing to gain from supporting unbiased in depth analisys of the market since that makes it harder to create hype.
Professional! Very well done! This is better information than could be provided by any university.
Maybe not better, but certainly more digestible. I actually learn stuff here. 😁 White papers? Gobbledygook.
In the EV media space, this kind of content is just not common and I know part of it is the hard work to pull it all together. I appreciate the effort you put in and hope your community keeps growing. It is always nice seeing people on other channel forums talking about this channel. Keep it up.
Thanks for the support man and the kind words!
Incredible quality in your videos Jordan. Thank You
Thanks!
Sure thing! 🤠
🤯🤯🤯 Your videos just keep getting better and better! Amazing work... seriously.
Love the presentation and all the work that went into this! Excellent Jordan.
phenomenal work bro!!! you're one of a kind, thank you for all the hard work to educate us on this, so interesting and learned so much. Never thought i would be interested in this stuff but you make it happen
lol, yeah, it is niche topic for sure 😁 And thanks!
Awesome content. And great production quality!!!
Thanks! 😀
Impeccable job 👍
Typically 7 years for a permit?? Even the accelerated 2-3 years you mentioned is too long. Sounds like there's too much bureaucracy involved.
Coffee time! & Thanks!
Thanks 😁
Jordan, thank you for this assessment, it is brilliant.
THANKS JORDAN 🤗👍 FOR SHARING THIS AND GIVING CREDIT,WHERE IT’S DUE 💚💚💚
"I dont know much, but I know I love.." this content...
Thanks for the support!
Extracting Li and other minerals from desalination brines also seems promising.
Respect. great learning
Thank you!
Nice stuff Jordan! Good to work through the detailed models and assessments. What is your take on Mexico's lithium resource? Mostly clay from what I understand, which is a huge wildcard in terms of how economically it can be produced with technical development. Lots of noise with the government's LitioMX strategy, which sounds like it could be huge (or, maybe, just noise).
Thanks! I haven't done a deep dive there. If it's clay, then it's less than it's a big wildcard.
Basically, I mostly ignore lithium tech and battery tech companies until they stop hemmoraging money. Lots of B.S. out there.
Thanks
The demand for mined Lithium 20 years from now could be a lot lower then over the next 5-15 years because of recycling, Sodium batteries, other non Lithium battery options. So a mining company could think let's make hay while the sun shines.
Really nice work. I follow RK Equity who have been “truth” on Lithium. You’ve been a great source on BEV Battery tech and the overall “story” so thanks for that. Very much appreciated. I think you have the Li story basically correct here and that’s an accomplishment.
Thanks man!
Great video.
❤️good video Jordan
Your analyses are the best by far. Thanks. Upgraded to next level as a small and inadequate return. BTW, I'd buy the hat if it was available in other than black.
Great Video as always. Thank you for your dedication. Your an asset to your species.
Lol, the highest of compliments
Great work Jordan. Also worth noting that DRC is also a legal and multinational competition risk. Current delays in AVZ (a very large advanced brownfield project contested by Chinese interests in the courts) means production will underproduce forecast even if that resolves this year.
Thanks for the insight!
Let's hope America sees value in speeding up the mining permitting process. Like Elon said "put a camera on the mine" to make sure they're doing it safely. I want to see more electric power equipment for mining to help clean up the industry. I hope to see Cybertruck doing mine & timber work one day. Great series, Jordan. I'd love to see mining professors and regulators watch this video and respond.
Elon's comment had to do with child labor and extreme safety/human rights issues with mines in Africa. Nothing to do with permitting or working conditions in North America.
Great explanation, very didactic Jordan. Congrats!. As a Peruvian I would say that you should consider Peru in your forecast. The latest figures on the Falchani project have been published recently. Furthermore, although Peru does not have large salars like our neighbors in the "lithium triangle", Peru is part of the South American volcanic axis, with active volcanoes and geothermal activity with evidence of lithium. Cheers
Thanks for watching man!
Yes, it probably would have been worth covering Brazil and Peru.
But, if it is of some comfort, they were included in the overall forecast. 🤜🤛
The Zimbabawe Lithium mine has been running since the 1950s.
You are The Man. Thanks for your so very impressive efforts. *Turns out pockets to reveal lint, grocery receipts that have been thtough the laundry once, random plastic, a trolley coin and some earbuds* Sorry, I need those earbuds. Here, have an algorithm-enhancing comment! ❤
🤣🙏
IMO, Tesla would be wise to work out a deal with you and bring you on board.
More Tesla‘s competition.
One of the exec's did say I should work for them, but I belong to the world, lol
@@thelimitingfactor ha!
@@thelimitingfactor Whereas, I would sell my Frunk to Tesla in a heartbeat - if I had one.
Awesome video. Impressive detailed data.
And yet, I must say here in Latinoamerica alongside Chile and Argentina, my country Bolivia also has huge Lithium reserves. I guess our production is almost non existant and that's why it's not even mentioned. Or maybe, alas to make things worse, my country is also not as stable as people would like, it's such a shame that an ex president here dared to use Musk as a scapegoat and blame him for an alleged coup when we were actually on the brink of a civil war. My country could have had a chance to largely contribute to the BEV tech revolution, but here we are, sitting upon lots of resources, but conditioned by our own problems. Add to those problems the environmental issues which are the same ones you mentioned for Argentina and Chile.
@robbieb8274 Russia and China won't save my country. We are running out of gas, and the only way I see for lithium to get enough traction is if we could make all the aggregated value from it which is if we produced end products with it: batteries. Taking the lithium from the salt flats in Uyuni or Coipasa would give us some money, but China and Russia are not in their best shape right now. Post pandemic conomical crisis is hitting hard, Russia wasted their resources invading Ukraine, Chinese company Evergrande has gone bankrupt which means another immobiliary crisis may be coming... ugh, the wole world seems to be not so good, and I don't know how prepared my poor 3rd world country is for whatever will happen.
Obrigado!
YOUR A LEGEND! Love my merch!
Glad to hear it! 🤠🔥
An important point to note with regard to the economics of lithium extraction is a fact of business life that companies are not as interested in ‘total’ revenue as they are in ‘rate’ of revenue. $20 billion in revenue with $2.4 billion in capital expenditure represents $17.6 billion net revenue over 20 years or $880 million per year. A figure of $15.2 billion net revenue over five years represents over $3 billion a year and it might be short term but it also provides the capital needed to exploit deposits elsewhere. ‘When the mine was designed’ was at a time when prices were predictable and stable but when prices jump no company is ever going to refuse to participate in the bonanza and will strike while the iron is hot by extracting as fast as it can.
Not if prices have dropped by the time the expansion occurs.
Great video as always Jordan, this one will need multiple viewings! Did you look at the Cinovec Project in Czechia as part of your research?
I looked at it a few years ago and it looked promising, but I haven't looked at it since. And thanks!
Thank you for doing this hard work. Considering the value you mentioned before, mb you can convince some of the insdustry guys to sponsor you, at least a bit. (I mean in the 5-6 digits ;- )
My view counts don't support 5 to 6 digits.
And your most welcome!
@@thelimitingfactor I know, I meant some of the industry-guys who might watch your vids could easily donate that amount :-)
@@thelimitingfactor4digits❤
@@thelimitingfactor "your" coming from you. Please.
JORC compliant reserves come in several quality standards - "Proven" vs "Probable" - you mentioned it yourself with the course and infill exploration, which is used to promote one to the other - there is also lesser grades where some resource is known, but hasn't been well quantified yet.
In Australia mining exploration permits are offered under a condition of "you have 15 years to convert this to a mine application, or hand it back to the government" - so the runway past 10 years isn't there, because companies don't want to pay for an exploration permit they can't convert.
Great input, thanks!
Excellent primer on mining exploration, lithium or not!
🐬Lithium!🐬Great Review!🐦
RE Extraction Rate: If the industry believes there will be a temporary demand surge and subsequent upwards pressure on lithium prices over the next 5-10 years, followed by a demand collapse... then there is incentive to surge mining for those higher prices
If Li batteries look like they will become a closed loop, with expired vehicle and storage packs being mines for the majority of lithium in the future perhaps it could create a sense of urgency in the short term
No, they need to look after ROIC over the life of the mine, and it takes years to build capacity...
Better to open new mines.
@@thelimitingfactor Yeah, for sure.
It's also much easier on local economies... the hotter burning the mine, the more it overwhelms the economies of nearby rural communities with it's overwhelming scale followed by a sudden collapse in its absence.
Thanks for the video. A few points: Thacker Pass is fully permitted to 40,000 tpa with multiple expansions planned. Also DLE from traditional brine sources carry much higher fresh water use than conventional brine technology putting an unacceptable burden on fresh water supplies for local communities and ecosystems. As such, imo, DLE technology will be far more useful in accessing the Smackover brines and perhaps oil field brines in the future.
Those expansions are all taken into account by the forecasts.
As for DLE, my understanding is that the lithium concentration is much lower in other sources.
That means, it's going to be much harder to make it commercially viable than from the South American brines
Jordan, one comment on why a mine might actually want to increase mine yearly output, even though total profit for a project would be reduced. Investment economics typically discount future cashflows at 10-15%, which might make a bigger up front investment to get the revenue earlier might be the desirable route, assuming the market is ready for the volume.
But there's expected to be a glut in the next couple of years.
By the time they get the mine up and running, the prices will probably be lower and even more mines would mean even lower prices.
That is, better just to expand at a new mine that will come online mid to long term.
Im investing hugely to create a lithium mine, your forecast was very useful, if I make money mining lithium, I'm definitely going to make you a rich man..
😁🙌
Nice and informative as always. I would however like to argue that you did not consider one of the most important parameters with respect to lithium mining, the price of lithium.
It takes longer for a new mines and other sources of lithium to begin production than it would take to upscale extraction at an already existing mine. if we assume that demand increases or stays similar one could predict that lithium prices would stay high or increase until more supliers arrive. Therefore the same amount of lithium is worth more before those other suppliers begin production. Moreover, money earned now is worth more than money earned later. Reason being, money earned now can be reinvested.
That being said, more complex factors can also play major roles. If none of the current suppliers increas production than the price remains higher which is beneficial to all suppliers. In essence it can be big game of chicken or a "who moves first game". The same is being done with oil at the moment.
Im not well informed enough to know wether these mechanisms actually happen in this industry, but just wanted to share the insights....
Thanks!
That was covered in other parts of the full video.
Also, by the time the existing mines scale, there will likely be a glut. And they also need to open up new resources anyways...so may as well expand at new mines.
They have to look after ROIC over the life of the mine.
Don’t forget to add this 3rd video to your lithium series list. Only 2 show up right now.
Thanks for reminding me! I appreciate it
Another great video.
At what point does recycled Li begin to materially affect the supply?
It depends on your definition of materially.
See my other video
Tesla: Battery Material Strategies
Will American miners that use clay like ioneer, century lithium, and LAC help with providing more supplies in the future. I know clay has not been commercially used yet but with progress in DLE it should be imminent.
Hi! Thanks for amazing video! One thing I was wondering was not taking into account was Finland’s (other countries) reserves of 12-14Mt (production of 15 000 tons starting next year). Maybe I was missing something or has new mines and new countries taken into account?
Keliber is responsible of mining and refining.
Thanks!
15k tonnes is peanuts compared to what's needed and as we saw in the video - reserves are neither here nor there -
the hold up is funding and regulation.
If it were just about the reserves, SA should be outproducing OZ.
Lithium is one of the most common elements.
Regarding the issue of why mines do not double or triple production being the cost of equipment - equipment wears out. A mine that has operated for 20 years may have had to replace its equipment (or spent an equivalent amount repairing and refurbishing its equipment) several times. This is below the level of resolution for your analysis, but it is a factor.
I really appreciate comments and insights like this! 💯
Good detailed video. But India can be dark horse. India just find new huge reserve and also focus on lithium refineries too.
Your estimates of lithium production in the USA and Canada may be underestimated. The brines in the Williston Basin contain large amounts of lithium. These brines are already being pumped to the surface as a byproduct of oil production. When the price of lithium spiked it created significant interest in extracting lithium from the brines.
It is not outside the realm of possibility that the North American energy industry will revolutionizes the lithium brine extraction techniques the same way they revolutionized the shale oil industry. It is unwise to underestimate the speed these companies can expand their activities in already heavily developed regions. America's oil production is a good case study in what can happen with the proper incentives.
In my conversations with people that are actually in the industry of employing DLE, they disagree.
These are people who have an incentive to exaggerate rather than downplay.
So, I'm operating off the most bullish information that's rational
Thanks Jordan, incredible work !
I wonder how the lithium to kWh ratio evolve over time. As the specific energy density of battery evolve, I suspect it would require less lithium for the same amount of lithium. Does it changes things a bit?
Thanks man!
No, a kilowatt hour is a kilowatt hour. The only thing that changes with energy density is the amount of dead weight, not the amount of lithium.
Voltage improves that, but only by a few percent and for lower energy density chemistries
@@thelimitingfactor thanks for the clarification! Even with solid state, or lithium air, or other non standard lithium chemestry, the relation between lithium and energy is somewhat constant?
Wonderful.
off topic for this video, but do you have plans to make a video comparing LFP to LFMP?
Next! 🤠
Thank you. What about American Battery Metals Co?
Haven't looked at in a while
👍👍
The required growth in lithium supply will extend for many years. However, I do wonder when lithium from recycling will account for, say, 50% of the lithium supply. This will likely be at a point where we reach market saturation. Just wondering.
Depends on how sodium advances and picks up the slack 🤠
But, I think it's supposed to be like the mid to late 2030s
I haven't heard any updates on Tesla's 4680 ramp in quite a while. Does that mean progress has slowed? I think it's time for an in depth look at where they are and where they need to be to support the CyberTruck and MY production out of Austin.
I do one every quarter
I think part 3 says it all. Tesla will get into mining at some point, given enough feet dragging from miners. You outlined what Elon might be frustrated about, mining rate. I have no doubt that Tesla could increase the extraction rate without a liner increase in extraction costs. I do find it doubtful that the info you provided escapes Elon. Given Tesla's level of investment and the talent they have, they know everything you do and likely more. IMO. Great stuff though and it's a good example of a possible out come.
The wild card is how long lithium will remain state of the art in batteries. There's many researchers all over the world developing new types of energy storage types including batteries that do not require lithium. I think it's only a matter of time before lithium is no longer used in most batteries for cars and grid storage, the question is, how much time.
I've covered this in the full video.
The short story is, don't hold your breath.
@@thelimitingfactor Researchers are on notice you don't have "years" to get to market anymore. It's months. I believe we will see at least 3 new types of batteries per year for the next decade. Not all of them will be for cars some will just be for grid storage but they will happen.
Wouldn't speeding up the extraction of lithium actually have the benefit of not only already having said increased inventory on hand but also allows the 3-5 yr permitting process to commence? Thus allowing the mining company to get a heads start on a new production location and actually be able to capitalize all the more when the inventory start to dwindle...they can charge the higher commodity price and actually recoup the upfronted investment plus profit?
The permitting has to happen before the speed of extraction increases.
I'm not sure what you mean by inventory because they don't keep much inventory.
That's because what they produce has a low concentration of lithium so it has a high bulk.
Fortunately, numerous mines and technologies have come online the past few years to give us an oversupply today, and projections show, much more oversupply in the future, driving prices down, which we need for a true EV and solar/wind/BESS grid power replacement of old, deadly fuels.
Probably worth watching the whole video, this is just a chunk. (such as the last video on forecasting)
No indication of an oversupply or one on the horizon.
Deadly fuels? 😂😂
Wish we could just Use Sand... DYOR..😅
I'm Researching...❤
Nice video! Also as of today Stellantis invested $100M in the geothermal lithium mining projects in California, we'll see if anything significant comes of it. The claimed potential capacity is 300,000 metric tonnes annually. Longer-term I suspect deep sea robotic mining will play a big role. I believe lithium actually falls out of solution at a certain ocean depth. There probably are huge repositories.
That would be amazing
But it looks like the deep sea stuff keeps hitting snags and they just had another 2-year extension for a decision
Lithium brine in the Salton Sea has been on going for far too many years, way back when Tesla offered to buy out Simbol in 2016 for their DLE work - only to file bankruptcy in the same year. CTR (Australian) has had joint ventures with GM, now they got one with Stellantis - it just never ends. This DLE high school science experiment has gone on far too long and it's no wonder the largest lithium miners today don't touch it.
@@blee7650 Seems so, but lots of things don't work for decades then suddenly work. Sounds like Stellantis has basically chosen them as their supplier. Staging date for 25K tonnes production is 2025, we'll see!
@@JohnboyCollins Well certainly that's not a method of investing if you ask me. The big auto makers are in trouble and Tesla is truly disrupting the auto space. Why don't those GM/Ford/Stellantis shareholders asking why they're going into the battery making business? An industry entirely unrelated to auto manufacturing. I'll tell you why - it's because they have no idea what they are doing. I mean Stellantis has to be real desperate to knock on CTR's door when GM had lithium supply contracts with the company many years prior.
Gordon is, 'The Shit!'! (That's intended as a compliment, (actually)).
33:53 you do mention that Chinese investments in Africa's mines can lead to quite some mining growth but the mined lithium will of course only go to China for refinement. So China is simply setting the control on the future lithium.
So if I understand correctly, a guaranteed demand at a relatively high price can go a long way to solve the problem. Tesla can do that. They are massively profitable even at high lithium prices, and can use practically unlimited amounts. If not for cars, then energy storage.
It would make sense to accelerate extraction to fill the gap until new mines are coming online. I don't think it should cost that much more. Yes doubling extraction rate requires twice as much equipment and employees, but for only half the time. The sum of all wages would be the same, the sum of all maintenance cost would be the same, the energy cost would be the same, so the only potential loss is the unused lifetime of equipment, if it's longer then 5-10 years. Usually the cost of operation is much higher then the purchase cost of the equipment.
As I think I mentinoed in the video, they also optimize for efficiency.
They take into account every factor when designing a mine. It's not always double input = double output.
Overall, they have to look at the ROIC of the mine over time.
The mining industry is super conservative.
So, we can easily handwave and say they "can" do something. But will they? No
Tesla could help, but are they so far? Not really
@@thelimitingfactor
Tesla solves bottlenecks in order of urgency.
When they planned the Model 3 they realized that they'd need more cells than the entire global supply, so they built the first gigafactory in Nevada and convinced Panasonic to build cells there. The latter part wasn't easy, because the Japanese are very conservative too.
The next bottleneck was nickel. I guess that's solved, because Elon no longer talks about it. LFP batteries likely helped a lot too.
The current bottleneck is lithium refining. So Tesla is building a large refinery and a cathode plant.
So based on this track record, I'm pretty sure Tesla will deal with lithium mining too, when it becomes the bottleneck.
Elon said years ago that they'll get into lithium mining if necessary. They have a site in Nevada, and knowing Elon I'm sure they are already doing the permitting to be ready if needed.
And they can always partner with a mine, or buy it out if necessary. Tesla can afford it easily, and then accelerate and optimize extraction as they do with everything else. They have some experience with the Boring Company.
They could also pull a similar trick they did with Giga Berlin. They found a site that was already considered for a car factory, and had years of environmental studies already done. Or how they bought the entire Fremont factory for pennies.
Maybe there's a deposit that was considered but abandoned after most of the paperwork was already done. I don't know if something like this is possible, I know almost nothing about mining.
@@andrasbiro3007 That's still building an entirely new mine though, and with the kind of price hike we're seeing in Lithium I doubt mining companies are leaving any stones unturned. Batteries and car factories were different because the demand didn't already exist and specifically with cars that market was already saturated so it wasn't odd that there were abandoned projects laying around.
@@hedgehog3180
Exactly because prices only exploded recently, the economy of mining changed completely, so there could be abandoned projects that may worth revisiting.
Large corporations often don't work logically, because employees don't care much about the company's goals, they only care about not being fired and hopefully getting promoted. Initiative and risk taking are generally bad for your career. Even if it works out, someone may get jealous of your success, and get you fired.
This doesn't apply to Tesla though, that's why they are running circles around the competition.
Thanks again for the great series! I think, there is kind of a wild card in the 4-7 year window that Elon knows more about than nearly everybody else: Boring's Prufrock tech... Any thoughts in that direction?
In regards to? Transport of raw materials?
@@TheEvilmooseofdoom my thinking is in exploration & extraction of lithium minerals (at speed)
It wouldn't really help accelerate things.
The boring company could help with mining, but most of the issue is in the permitting and exploration
@@thelimitingfactor Thanks a lot! I was wondering if the speed at which that thing is supposed to be tunneling could be interesting for exploration already.
@@percurious Exploration isn't done with tunnel drills, it's done with core samplers.
15:40 Tesla is Mining Lithium... Corpus Chrisi...Tx..(?)
That's refining
@@thelimitingfactor ohh, ok, 👍 👌 🙆♂️
This video does have a lot of useful and important information. Good job on that! However, how did you happen to miss India's reserves of 5.9 million tons in the Jammu & Kashmir region and an even larger deposit in the state of Rajasthan? This puts India's Lithium reserves amongst the largest in the world.
Hello! I didn't miss it, I lef it it.
That's because it's unlikely to happen this decade in any big way, and because mining in such a sensitive environmental area is fraught.
I never understand why you wouldn't put links to part 1 and 2 in the description.
I did it just to spite you, because I hate humanity, and I want them to suffer
Or possibly because I'm just human and it was an oversight.
I never understand why people need to phrase things like dick heads.
E3 Lithium in Alberta has 16Mt Measured and Indicated. Larger than Chile. I suggest you should edit your presentation.
That was included
What do you think about Iran's claim of discovering 8.5mt lithium reserves? Assuming no sanctions, would that not be enough to cover the most bullish demand forecasts?
As I said in this video and the last video, it's not about reserves, it's about building the capacity
When does Iran plan to have two tera watt hours worth of lithium supply online?
Assuming no sanctions also seems optimistic, there's no indication that the US is going to return to the negotiating table.
Great work and presentation. It doesn't look good. What happens to TSLA if from 2027 they cannot meet demand?
Can it turn the whole global energy shift to solar+storage into a failure?
No, I'll cover this in the next couple of videos.
It just means like a 20 to 40% growth rate rather than 50% growth rate
epic, i am looking forward to it. You're a fundamental part of the TSLA community, hope to follow you till this word gets fixed a battery at the time! @@thelimitingfactor
I thought that Tesla had access to a large deposit in northern Nevada.
Nope, it looks like that fell through
I thi k we will see Chile surprise to the upside.
I hope so!
Will Prowse send me here
What is the most convincing argument for Elon musk saying that lithium refinery is the limiting factor but not the mining?
Covered in the last video.
Should be linked in the description
In my opinion it's that they need refining in the US and want to build a separate supply chain from China
3 shifts will solve some of the investment costs to extract more.
That's abstract
@@thelimitingfactor or are they already working 3 shifts too keep the machines working 24/7 ?
No mention of Bolivia (unless I missed it)? They claim to have the biggest reserves in the world (23 million tonnes), and have signed contracts with Russian and Chinese companies to produce 50000t/year from 2025.
You didn't pay attention to the last section on 'other'
50 kilotons is small potatoes.
Roughly 3% of global supply in 2025.
Thanks for taking the time to answer@@thelimitingfactor. I obviously don't understand the numbers.
In the section on 'South American Lithium Brines' you said that Chile and Argentina have between them 'by far the largest reserves in the world' of about 12 million tonnes. But Bolivia alone has 23 million? In the 'other' section it mentions 2.7 million tonnes of total reserves which are mostly in Africa. I don't see how Bolivia could be included in with that?
I know that Bolivia has historically done nothing with their deposits, but they need the money asap and there won't be 2 year delays for permits. They have a stated aim of supplying 40% of world production by 2030 and have this year signed 3 contracts, each for a 50kt/yr factory/mine. Presumably there will be more to come.
What am I missing? While I don't expect them to hit their targets, I do expect a major contribution starting later in the decade.
Is there a system in place to recycle EV Batteries?
Yes
@@thelimitingfactor ok, good. .. Will the absence of Federal funding for the EV industry reduce PAC donations to elected officeholders?
Pilbara is the best investment opportunity in Li Mining.. great job DYOR
(raw materials scale easy -always did always will )
Says the person from the sidelines
@@thelimitingfactor (batteries are cheap and fast charging )
@@thelimitingfactor (solar and batteries are a lot faster -and more efficient than pumpnig oil through refineries )
@@thelimitingfactor * (machines and explosives made mining easy )
You talk about ethical concerns for extraction from South America and Africa but not China’s? I’m not expecting a deep dive, but anything coming out of Xinjiang is going to be morally questionable at best.
I did, just not to your satisfaction, lol
Stopped watching after the sources. Not really interested in the USA view on anything. The failing ukraine war shows how unreliable the USA opinion is on anything.
That's a stretch, but thanks for commenting, you've probably helped the channel more than 90% of the people who watched the video
Thanks!
Sure thing!
Thanks
Sure thing!
Thanks!
Thanks!
Thanks!
Thanks!
Sure thing Cathy!