Why Electric Vehicles will become the Norm (and why that will suck)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 ต.ค. 2024
- Will Electric Vehicles take over? Yes. But it won't be smooth sailing, as much as hardcore EV enthusiasts like to make you think.
Lovely C5 X7-specific 3D-printable models at www.cgtrader.c...
Sources:
1:27 Back-of-the-napkin calculation
World average for fuel consumption:
ponce.sdsu.edu...
How many cars are there in the world:
www.whichcar.c...
Bioethanol per hectare:
www.eubia.org/...
Arable land in the world
worldpopulatio...
11:17 The Automobile Industry Pocket Guide 2023/2024
www.acea.auto/...
11:38 EV incentives in Portugal:
alternative-fu...
11:44 Washington state rebates
washingtonstat...
20:52 5 New Battery Technologies
www.gray.com/i...
24:23 Percentage of world energy made from fossil fuel
css.umich.edu/....
A point of accuracy - GPS itself doesn't track you - it's just a very accurate clock. You would need something in the car recording your position calculated from GPS signals. And then that recorded data would have to be uploaded for someone to know where you were. Location services on mobile phones do this, but they don't just use GPS.
Thank you for clearing that up
EV's will be the norm, and it will be AWESOME!! I've owned an EV for the past 8 years, charged from my own solar panels and small wind turbine, and pay nothing for fuel, repairs or maintenance, of any kind, and will never have to work on a car again. Just bought another Tesla Model Y yesterday, LOVE IT!!!
Here in India EV cars made by TATA are doing quite well .Also alot of cars come with CNG +petrol . I wonder if they could make a CNG and EV hybrid.
No reason you can't, might be more a question of should you, not could you?
CNG or LPG I run the UK suzuki celerio club but have members in India that run on gas as well
Regarding batteries and replacements: The now 10 year old Nissan Leaf's and early Teslas are not a good indication of where things will be in the future. They were essentially early prototypes. I mean, the Nissan Leaf had passively cooled batteries! Not even fans! The costs are also not representative of future costs, as battery packs have come down immensely. Over the past decade price per kWh has come down about 90%, and that will feed into repair costs.
Furthermore, previously you've only had full battery replacements and warranty repairs, with a tiny market for third party repairs. That is quickly changing, and the graph looks like a hockey stick.
Not saying there aren't issues (specifically oligopolies and market cornering), but the past is not an indication of the future when developments are this quick.
I concede it's a good point on old Leafs ("Leaves?"), and I think I may have mentioned how mass-production and dedicated industries may help bring battery prices down, but as world events like the pandemic and the war in Ukraine showed us, shocks to supply chains can alter the economics sharply. ~
BTW, thanks for the answers and I apologise if my own answers seem insufficient, but there's lots to get through. I appreciate it!
In the future just get a new car like a new smartphone every 5 years
@@peterdietrich9491 Why would you do that? Cars are increasingly lasting longer and longer.
Regarding taxation: Not much of an issue. Internal combustion vehicles should still be taxed in the future, and those taxes should go up per vehicle as tax receipts go down. Once EV's reach something like 80% of new sales you start taxing them more aggressively. You have a sales tax based on the value of the vehicle, and then you do annual taxation, which still can be emissions-based. Since EV's emissions during use are mostly due to electricity generation that's not a good basis for taxation, but I would instead base it on the size of the battery pack. So a set amount per kWh. That would mean that smaller, cheaper vehicles with smaller batteries get a smaller annual tax bill than big SUV's, thus promoting efficiency and good resource use as well.
Keep in mind that EVs as of today can be charged from 100% renewable energy. Article out yesterday on Calif reaching 100% renewable energy for 65 consecutive days. Not 24 hours but for many hours where two years ago only one day in the year achieved that level. And it's still early days.
@@cre8tvedge Yeah, and as electricity generation is the big factor for battery production emissions, that will also get a lot more environmentally friendly as the grid does.
You make a lot of fair and reasonable points for the situation as is now, but fail to take into account the advances that are coming. Batteries are getting a) cheaper and better and that will only improve as the technology advances. The ICE car of today is heaps better than that which made the transition in the 1920s. The infrastructure will get built out. It will take time, but it will happen (once the planning for new chargers is sorted out). Change is hard and I agree in the short term it will suck at times, but once we are through the other side of the change it will get better.
The transition from EV to IC in the early 20th C was certainly progress, reversing this .. not so sure. A filling station can serve a dozen customers in a few minutes, so they can afford to occupy convenient locations without a penny in subsidies- this also makes a convenience store, shelter, bathrooms viable.
EV owners naturally prefer to charge at home anyway, so public charging is never going to equal what IC owners enjoy today, even with all the subsidies.
Well I ran the numbers about 7 years ago and found that even if I pay $10K for a new battery every 10 years I would be saving about $1000 every year I owned a Nissan Leaf. This was assuming that the other maintenance costs where the same as my existing ICE car. I then purchased a used 2012 Leaf for $23k. It turned out that I now save about $1100 par year and the battery still has ~82% of its original range. This is on top of putting the $1000/year away for the new battery. It is my second car but it is the one I daily drive. I can charge at home and that is important to reduce the costs.
Compared to buying which ice car?
How many miles does it have?
Before they stop selling ice cars, buy a new Toyota Corolla and keep it forever.
I think the quickest way to less pollution is to switch to fully synthetic fuel. If the gasoline or diesel you put in the tank of your car were made from CO2 and water after putting enough electricity into the mix, your ICE car would be converted to practically electric simply by filling the tank with fully synthetic fuel.
This plan is not without side-effect, though. As long as you burn anything and take air from the atmosphere to burn it, some of the nitrogen from the atmosphere will also burn in process and emit NOx. If the car has properly working EGR system, the total amount of NOx emitted should be pretty low but it will never be zero. In addition, converting electricity into fully synthetic fuel is lossy process with end-to-end efficiency around 20% (that is, 80% of the input electricity is converted to heat in the process) and then you burn that fully synthetic fuel in internal combustion engine which has efficiency around 30% so the final end-to-end efficiency from electricity to wheels pushing the ICE car forward will be around 6%. If you have clean enough process to create electricity to be able to throw away 94%, going with fully synthetic fuels is a nice plan to convert all transport to electric.
Sounds great, would you pay the £5 per litre it would cost? It may get cheaper in time but first it would need to catch on at that price. An you'd still need the suck, squash, bang, blow bit too which is so inefficient and complex its just crazy. I could see it working for weekend driven classics though where fuel cost isn't an issue.
@@st200ol I wouldn't pay £5 per litre if I have an option to get £2 per litre fossil version. However, if government put extra £2 per litre pollution tax to fossil fuels, I might switch to fully synthetic even today.
I think fossil fuels are going to be taxed into extinction and the only question is when.
Even with £1 extra pollution tax to fossil fuels and subsidizing the fully synthetic fuel would make sense. The subsidizing could be high enough to make fully synthetic "only" £1 per litre more expensive than fossil fuel which might be good enough to have many people to switch to zero CO2 emission fuel.
If you don't drive a lot and already have an ICE car, ability to purchase fully synthetic fuel would be a nice solution to reduce overall CO2 emissions.
If you compare CO2 emissions between EV car and ICE+fully synthetic fuel, I think EV car needs to be driven for about half a million miles to offset the CO2 emissions from the production of the EV car itself. This is because ICE+fully synthetic fuel doesn't cause any local CO2 emissions but it's efficiency is worse than with EV cars.
@@MikkoRantalainen where are you getting all the Hydrogen you need to produce enough synthetic fuel? And how will you provide enough electric energy to produce the Hydrogen?
The efficiency of synthetic fuel compared to the use of electricity to charge batteries is... 🫣🙂
@@HansOleBenonisen Yes, efficiency is exactly the problem. The current thinking seems to be that wind energy could be cheap enough to not mind the efficiency and if we assume that's true, we can simply take water and split it with electricity to get the hydrogen (this produces oxygen as a side-effect but that's safe to release into the atmosphere). Then you can take CO2 either directly from atmosphere or from exhaust pipe of some big factory and break that too (and release more O2 into the atmospehere) and create methanol. Then you can use even more energy to convert methanol to gasoline and diesel.
The overall efficiency from electricity to diesel or gasoline is probably around 15% (or 85% of energy lost) which is obviously a lot more than the losses you suffer from charging EV battery.
However, the big question is how much CO2 was emitted while the EV battery was created and the EV car was manufactured. In short term, synthetic fuel should be better for the environment if it allows using *already existing* ICE cars instead of having to build new EV cars.
In addition, there has been some new research for getting hydrogen from granite which results from natural production of radon. At least here in Finland, it appears possible that within a decade we could be getting hydrogen from stone without having to use electricity if everything works well.
Agree on most of your points but just one comment on massive scrapping. I don’t think it’ll happen anytime soon. Even the ban for ICEs in 2035 considers only new vehicles and existing ones will still be usable. I guessume the time for ICEs to become obsolete is 30-40 years from today and at that time most of them will reach their natural end of life.
Of course, there might a case like manufacturers not supplying spare parts anymore due to shift to EVs. Then it may happen quicker. Many factors are in the play. Even 2035 ICE ban is not 100% sure.
Also, their might be ULEZ-related bans that may accelerate the adoption of EVs and abandonment of ICEs.
Head gasket is no big deal. Neither are some oil coolers. If you have to have the engine rebuilt that could easily run more than 10 grand
Fear of change is normal. No, it will not be smooth. Buckle up buttercup.
You need to get your hands a P85D - in sport mode it's INSANELY GREAT! SO GOOD!
Regarding at home charging: This is an issue for some time, but it will get fixed. In time, every place where you have somewhat longer term parking there will be charging. Just look at the Nordics - We've already got sockets at home and at workplaces for decades, because they are needed for heaters in the winter. This is no different, and will get solved over a decade or so.
I've heard we were running out of oil in the next 10 years for the last 50 years. There will always be oils. EVs will take over because of government mandates and because they are better (in theory) than gas cars. They are not there yet in terms of cost and reliability, but will be in a few years.
Well balanced and put across. I think the thing that may hinder EVs as time goes on is the availability of the electric full stop. From what little I understand, for a bank of superchargers that can reach full speed at full load you could be looking at the power requirements of a small town. Multiply that by petrol stations and there in is the potential problem. These are pushed at alarming rate but the power generation is not being propelled at the same pace or as vigorous. Not talking wind or solar, but proper electric that is there when its dark and nil wind.
The national grid are not planning to get rid of Gas for 2-3 decades and like all strategies there is short term and long term goals. You must have noticed the amount of solar that is going in, the amount of wind going in, but what you might not have noticed is the amount of solar that is going in. Let's start with some base information.
Currently the grid is operating at 180g/kwh, this means that an EV is operating at 3.5miles (5.2km) per kwh is running at 36g/km. That's pretty healthy at our current energy mix.
Low power over night is 20Gw to 23Gw. Peak Power on a cold dark day in January is 43Gw.
Peak Power is 43Gw, on a cold dark day in January. But we are now peak production at 63Gw. This is on renewables so it is not always achievable so 43Gw.
We are currently running at 3GwH storage with 160GwH with planning permission, battery and cold air storage. To put this into perspective, this is capable of running the country at peak for nearly 4 hours or low for up to 8 hours.
New planning permission is being bought in to change the speed of connectors being put in. There is a new north south interconnector coming in for to get some of the off shore wind down to the south power.
When you say nothing is being developed, I'm sorry you are missing all of this, but I guess you are not looking for it!!
Then there is the numbers for the EV that we are developing for, we are looking to move to total EV sales by 2035, Norway is at 90% EV sales and they are still 3-4 years away from there being more EV's on the road than Diesel so I suspect we will not be at that stage until 2040. So lets put that current 2040 energy generation into practice. The average car does 18 miles a day, we have 33 million of the things.
18 ÷ 3.5 = 5.2Kwh per car per day.
So our total energy demand to power the UK fleet of cars is:
5.2Kwh x 33M = 171,600Gwh per day energy demand.
Lets just put that demand over 24 hours
171,5000 ÷ 24 = 7.1Gw
Now go back and review those numbers, I have vastly reduced the statistical analysis for simplicity so this is an average, but think about:
Overnight charging: We only use 23Gw and we have 43Gw to 63Gw capacity and growing.
Peak charging Ultra Rapid Chargers : We are putting in 160Gw of battery storage to get us through the humps and less than 1% of journeys a day are over 100 miles.
EV's will not be fully with us for years, the grid does not have to fix all the problems in one day and they are already making fast progress. Why... Because £bn's of potential business shifting from BP, Esso, Shell, Tesco etc.. shifting to the electricity industry. Imagine sitting in a share holders meeting and saying to the share holders that you have no interest in that business!
Anyhow... I hope this helps and maybe you will be on the lookout and think:
Why are they still building solar farms (which I hate - it should be on rooftops).
Why are they still building wind farms - surely they are not worth it
Why are they getting planning permission for all these battery farms.
Maybe then you might realise how much is actually being done. I hope this helps you feel informed and not just another nee Sayer that cannot see past their own argument to look for evidence that contradicts it. No one said Net Zero was easy, every one says it is profitable, here's the start of your information, now go look for those nuggets of planning complaints!
@@crumbschief5628 I agree, extra grid capacity is not a huge hurdle when it comes to an EV dominated market share. Norway shows how this is possible: 90% new EV sales, during the worst auto sales in 60 years! i.e. you don't need to sell a lot of EVs to be in compliance with the mandates, you just need to crush ICE sales to almost zero. Then the remaining EV sales (mostly corporate and govt fleets) hit those percentages.
Also Norway is already proposing pulling the subsidies for EVs at the same time as banning IC entirely. Restricting private transport to corporations, govt employees and very wealthy people, will not be very demanding on the grid or the rest of the infrastructure, roads will be very peaceful. Bicycles can provide private transport for ordinary people. North Korea is decades ahead on all this!
@@SteveLomas-k6k I don't make any reference of Norway, that's Norway, North Korea is North Korea and my calculations and information is pertinent to the UK only using UK electricity grid information, our existing fleet as a base point for aspiration and assumptions for an EV fleet in the future with no reductions to the existing size of the UK car fleet
I am only dealing with the facts on the work that has and is being carried out to integrate an energy generation change in the next 20 years, I point out the 30% of people who do not have access to decent cheap charging as a fact that they are disadvantaged as a negative connotation of EV's. I do not associate that as a driver by governments to reduce or increase use of personal transports, just that some people are not afforded the same opportunity.
I'm about facts, I note that you omit a single fact in your permissive and that is that certain EV's are now cheaper than their petrol or diesel counterparts with several companies now racing to produce cars at sub £20k new cars and that the used EV market is opening up with some sub £10k cars soon being sensible to many potential buyers. Think MG4 compared to Ford Focus base model or Tesla Model 3 compared to BMW 3 series(go look up the on the road price at respective websites). If this continues on its present path to EV being cheaper than petrol or diesel (and bearing in mind private buyers have no subsidies to buy an EV in the UK) then I don't see how this is going to impinge the ownership of personal transport from private buyers when the expectation is for them to be cheaper across all ranges and not just prestige model range in the future.
@@crumbschief5628 Well facts are notoriously subjective things! As you stated, 30% don't have access to cheap charging.. would you say those tend to be higher or lower income people? 'cheaper than IC counterparts' depends on what you call a counterpart- what you pay for a compact EV sedan, will usually get you a nice IC SUV or Pickup.
'private buyers have no subsides'- which is partly why 81% of EV sales in the UK (last year I believe) were to corporate fleets, who get grants, subsidies, tax write offs, carbon credit, ESG scores etc.. Not sure how many of the remaining 19% were govt fleet.. but do you think the remaining small % of private buyers tend to be higher or lower income?
'not to reduce personal transport' you'd have to argue that with the many politicians who explicitly state that this is exactly their 'noble' goal. Low emission zones are explicitly to get older IC cars off the roads, are those driven by higher or lower income people?
@@SteveLomas-k6k Facts are not subjective, the interpretation of facts is subjective.
As stated, 30% of people don't have access to off street parking. Are they lower wage people, not necessarily, a lot of people live in areas that were pre-cars so were not built with that in mind but still cost a lot to live in. You can be wealthy and live in a flat. I don't have that information, but I'm not going to speculate on it either. If I have further facts I would include them.
Use of the word 'Sedan', Location? Some of your information seems based on non UK govt. strategies.
Again, for facts.. I would say anyone looking to buy a car, look at the total cost of ownership, but a model 3 is cheaper than a 3 series BMW, an MG4 is cheaper than a Ford Focus. There are examples of cherry picking both ways, just saying EV's are more expensive is not true, just saying EV's are cheaper is also not true. It depends on what you are buying and how you are using it and measuring it's cheapness. I personally look at total cost of ownership.
On 81%, nice to see you use a statistic. The answer on govt. cars is none.. Those are all included in the 81%. I know several people with EV's, they are out there. If we are asking questions like that, the value you are taking is from the v5 registration extracted from government tables VEH0101a and VEH1103a. Of this data I know of several people that lease a car and are not the owner, so how many of these people in the 81% are private leasers? The V5 title to the car is not in their name? Again, facts, I'm not questioning the accuracy fact, I'm just asking what it's make up is so I can better interpret it.
In the UK, companies get no fiscal benefits for promoting EV's. Even the ESG has no guaranteed financial outcome unless audited in a supply chain. The beneficiary is the user of a company car who will pay less benefit in kind tax (typically in my experience reduced to from £180 to £15 but that is not 100% accurate). This BIK tax has been around since 2002 that predate the EV, but okay.
I'm not arguing anything about removal of personal transport or not.. That's you going off on one about agendas... I'm just checking facts make sense or if they are opinion presented as fact
In your last paragraph, you present something as fact and use the word 'explicit' to highlight your point that ULEZ is to remove older 'IC' cars. Again, that is your interpretation of the strategy. You need a quote to back that up that is 'explicit'. I would say that Khan for example (as other ULEZ zones exist) has been explicit about saying his objective is to improve the air quality in London:
"The decision to expand the Ultra Low Emission Zone London-wide was not an easy one for me to make, but it is necessary to reduce toxic air pollution, protect the health of Londoners"
That is a direct quote. I agree that a spin off will be the reduction of cheaper cars (but that is my and your opinion). Valid, but not fact, and not well reflected by your word 'explicitly' but then if you include an appropriate quote that is not out of context then I would agree with you for 'that' politician. Which is exactly the behavior I'm checking.. Opinion dressed up as fact.
So to finish, if you believe that there is a large interest to take away the personal freedoms of the poor by the government.. I have no opinion on that. I'm just going to question where you get your 'facts' from when they don't seem to be anything more than opinion.
Regarding the economics and incomes: You're making a decent point, but we also need to consider that we are currently at a mid-point in the transition. At the early stages electric cars were expensive to make for a wide range of reasons, and manufacturing costs were reflected in sales prices. That's something that will have secondary effects in the used markets. Now, however, we are at the stage where electric cars are close to the manufacturing costs of internal combustion vehicles. Sure, there are still minor differences, but the VW ID.3 with the 58kWh battery is the same cost as the VW Golf. The problem is that European and American manufacturers are looking to get as much profit from their more expensive models as they can, and have actively tried to avoid the lower end of the market.
This will change, and we are already seeing models announced for below 25 000 euro. With Chinese brands bringing out cheap EV's western manufacturers will be forced into this market. This will mean that in 2-3 years time buying or leasing a new EV will be more economical than buying a decent second hand petrol car.
All in all, electric cars are simpler and cheaper to make and run than petrol or diesel. That will affect the lower end of the car market more than the upper end, where you pay more for luxuries, brands and materials than for the basics.
I think you may be right on various counts, though I am not 100% sure that EVs are cheaper. I was going to add to the video how it seems that some EVs come chock-full of gimmicks like autonomous driving to try to justify the high price, and how the price of EVs from regular car manufacturers is still high.
The Chinese brands are definitely a factor to consider, but looking at parallels from the past, tehre was a time when japanese cars were deemed to be cheap and badly built, like Chinese cars are now, and it took decades and an oil crisis for that to change.
tyres last much longer on my EV! Unsure quite why but managing 30k per set. Tesla 4.5 years old and no maintenance yet
I think Elon has been surprisingly accurate in everything else but schedule. In my experience, when Elon tells us any time estimate into the future, take his estimate and multiply it with 7 and you'll have somewhat accurate estimate. Some call this 7x accelerated thing "Elon time".
Regarding Tesla's financials: That's just the bubble bursting (or deflating somewhat slowly). Tesla's stock was based on some pipedream of it being a tech company with monopolistic position in the future... but not it's turned out to just be one of a handful of dominant car manufacturers. So it's stock performance becomes more in line with say VW Group. This says more about the past than the future.
The stock value is still based on techno dominance and manufacturing efficiency which is definitely a thing. It's still nowhere near the price of an established brand stock price. We'll see whether they can convert that advantage into significant income over the established brands and Chinese manufacturers.
@@EwanM11 True, they are still far higher in terms of P/E and other measurements. It's all speculation, but I would only expect them to go down. They've pretty much abandoned their own battery production, haven't introduced any major new models in 3,5 years and don't seem to have anything significant lined up. Seems to me that they are going down the same route as every other major EV manufacturer except BYD. But all speculation...
The electric revolution is much broader. I see electric scooters, bicycles, fat bikes, autoped, cargo bikes. That is imo the silent bit of the transition that does not seem to be victim to the same culture war.
EV sales peaked at about 40% market share in the early 1900s before IC technology made them redundant, it's now at about 7% in the US in the last quarter (down from 8% last year).
But whether people will go back to EVs depends 100% on politics, not consumer preference, as would going back to steam. Remove the subsidies for EVs and the hurdles for IC cars, and there would be no such thing as an EV. Political policies and environmental beliefs are prone to the vagaries of fashion, but people will always want an affordable, practical car.
Hmmm, I hope you don't mind my saying, but an affordable, practical car may very well end up being an EV for some people. I sort of agree it depends on politics, and I said so much in the video, as many changes to car manufacturers habits are, but EVs seem to buck that trend somewhat, as their initial presence on the market wasn't mandated by governments. California tried to do it and failed, the EVs since 2012-ish came about due to car company insistence
@@comcarclub Thanks for the response and nicely made vid! I think you may be right, though as above, steam cars could also be the most affordable and practical 'choice' with enough subsidy, and suppression of any alternative perhaps?
I suppose the proof will be in the pudding, but so far; the fact that communist China is the biggest EV 'market' in the world, and places like Norway and California have the highest 'adoption' rates... I think speaks volumes about their viability in a free consumer driven market.
I think you may be being a little overdramatic when comparing 'maintenance' costs. Having already said that maintenance costs would be lower for EVs you then jump to 10 year old cars without mentioning that you have already enjoyed 10 years of reduced costs. Also the current crop of 10 year old EVs are some of the earliest ever made. ICE cars are a mature technology so should be at the top of their game. EVs are improving rather quickly. We then moved on to one anecdotal story after another. I am in my late 60s so have driven ICE cars all my life. I recently bought a used (2019) Tesla Model 3. So far I have not encountered any issues with range, repairs or other inconveniences. When you spoke about the government's legislating to remove ICE cars from 2035 you might do well to consider the advances in battery tech, reliability of components etc. that should be expected from EVs in that time. I admit I did not finish watching the whole video, for which I apologise, but I had found sufficient reasons to stop by 10 minutes in. I hope you will eventually re-embrace the future of personal travel. Nice scenery though 👌
It's a long video, I understand, but thanks for the input anyway. I didn't want to harp on about that point but as things stand, 10 years of reduced costs may be annulled by one big cost. I have little doubt that the reliability and durability will improve over time, but for the purposes of this video, it had to be current tech.
@@comcarclub thank you for replying so politely. I know this 'discussion' often descends into insult slinging. I hope we manage to transition to whatever tech becomes the norm without too much bloodshed 😉
@@Lupinicus1664 me too!
They are price prohibitive and the charging systems currently are woefully inadequate with little action from the worlds governments to really address the issue. Ill keep my gas guzzler as long as I possibly can assuming that the current status quo for capitalism being big business and oil.
Regarding old cars: Old classics will probably run on very expensive synthetic or biofuels for the few thousand km's they are driven each year, but your average work horse will be scrapped and replaced by an EV. As they should, because the savings in emissions are actually quite large. A modern EV will probably cause less emissions during BOTH manufacturing and the first two years of use than an old petrol car will cause during two years of use. And this difference will only grow as grids and manufacturing get greener over time.
So we probably won't lose the cars that are worth keeping, and the scrapping will in the end be a good thing.
Nuclear is the way!
Nuclear cars? That would be... interesting
@@comcarclub Road RAGE !
Nuclear cars. I'm in. Yah man let's go. hahahahahahah. Hilarious.
Counter points.
10:35 Yes they have maintenance but to say EVs are"exactly the same as internal combustion cars when they get to a certain age" is just rubbish.
11:49 If electric vehicles become common place they will not cost as little as an ICE car. They will be cheaper. The question is why are ICE vehicles presently so cheap? They have thousands of movable parts that all need to be fitted together. They should cost a huge amount more. They don't because of the efficiencies of scale. As EVs gain greater scale they will get cheaper and they have lots of scope for development. ICE cars will lose scale and after a hundred years, there's not really any development going to happen with the combustion engine.
Tax is messy. The tax taken from vehicles will be collected in a different way. Taxes on Vehicles are not saved to be spent on vehicle things. It's just tax. It will be collected, live with it.
15:34 Your charging point assumes that there will be no investment in charging infrastructure. That's just silly. When EV's are everywhere, every business that wants you to drive to their premises will have somewhere you can plug in. The charging suppliers that charge loads will not get business. My local petrol station has the cheapest fuel in the area, it spends a good chunk of the day with cars queuing to fill up. Lastly on charging you are still thinking like an ICE driver. You don't sit and wait to charge. You charge while you're doing something else.
21:32 In the news today "OLD CAR GETS SCRAPPED" also "NICE OLD CAR BECOMES MUSEUM PIECE" read all about it!
I say all this as someone who has never bought a brand new vehicle, not something I've ever been able to afford. My house has no drive or garage. My present vehicle is a 2015 eNV200 van. I bought it second hand, as previously mentioned. It has over 80k miles on it. The battery is small by today's EV standards and has as far as I'm aware, next to no battery management. It had crap range when it was new, it has almost the same crap range now (it seems to have lost about 4 miles, difficult to tell, lots of variables). It's had new tires but with the exception of the first set (I was playing *looks guilty*) they seem to last as long as the other vehicles I've had. The only other work of note was some to the anti roll bars, not a biggy. All my other vehicles I drove until the fix cost more than the vehicle, they were usually just past ten years old.
p.s. your description of Elon Musk seems accurate
p.p.s. that was a cool rock.
p.p.p.s. There are people who come from an oil expertise background making noises about the oil not lasting much beyond 2030 anyway. I can't be sure that this isn't just alarmist talk to get clicks and sell books, I don't have anything like the knowledge to fact check them. But if they are right, no one will be able to run an internal combustion engine.
legacy auto is toast.. they , as usual, can't change with the times.. tesla is a juggernaut. and that's not just in auto by far.
Do you really think Musk is steering Tesla well?
Should really change the title "(and why that will suck for some)"
MOST IMPORTANTLY
Don't ever talk about maintenance of sex toys.. cringeworthy.. Besides, everyone knows you just wipe it on a garment and put it in the sock drawer.
I overall like this, I think you are trying to be honest, but not quite balanced, I like the speculation about Tesla, they are a great company with an over promise problem.
There are 30% of people who have no off street parking, you really let them down by diluting the message! A real shame as it's something I want to see and no one is pushing it.
SOME HELPING FACTS:
Department of Transport: 99%+ of journeys are under 100 miles, the average car does 18 miles a day.
THINGS I TOTALLY AGREE WITH:
Tax, I don't know of a way that keeps everyone happy, but agree EV drivers should pay.
30% of people don't have access to off street parking, and this is the thing I hate.. No one focuses on this as it will be very unfair for people if this is not fixed in the future.
It's worth speculating that there may be a maintenance and upkeep problem with ICE cars in the future, but I think your talking beyond 2045. (my opinion based on aging fleet).
THINGS I DON'T THINK YOU COVERED VERY WELL (PROBALBY NOT ENOUGH RESEARCH)
Electricity being expensive (it is for some - hence the title change) if you don't have off street parking, then it is. However it can be as low as 35p per kwh which is about 10p a mile, so not the 2p a mile for people with home charging and yes it is not always easy to get that 35p. So good for some, but not for 30% who cannot home charge.
Toy for the rich.. There are several things here, firstly as above (30% of people don't have access to off street and I agree this is a problem). But the other 70% of people are not rich and can charge for 2p a mile. (Again, what about the 30%). A base level MG4 is cheaper than a base level Ford Focus, a Model 3 is cheaper than a BMW 3 series, both with better depreciation. There are other examples that are the reverse.
The availability and use of chargers is 2022 speak, and does not recognise the charging network starting to try to compete with Tesla.
Where there used to be ones or twos out the back of the pub or at the occasional McDonalds, you now see 5 or 6 at a single location on A roads, often not used that much.
If you go to South Mimms services, there is now about 24 chargers with another 20 or so going in. There are lots of motorway services now being fast tracked to put up large volumes of chargers, they are finally figuring out that those 1% of journeys may need chargers close to main tributaries, not at the local cinema parking lot. There are lots of examples like this.
If you turn up at somewhere that has 5 chargers, and they are all taken.. It is unlikely that 5 people turned up at once, and therefore it is unlikely to take 30 minutes. More chargers means faster turn around.
October 2023 new rapid chargers installed have to have contactless payment (hence the Tesla V4 has it). I think you need to update your knowledge as to where this is and where it is going.
THINGS I THINK YOU WERE WAY OF BASE WITH:
People do not often go from old car to new car, they go from car to newer car. There are significantly more used car sales than new car sales.
A car that has done 200,000 miles is one major problem from the scrap yard. I love it when a scrappy 406 hits 200k miles, but it is not the norm. The average mileage a car is scrapped is 140,000 miles (I need a source for that information).
There are signs an engine is worn, but I'm pretty good at checking (but still get burnt now and then). I normally fix the problem with an engine, not replace it. If I replace it, I replace it with a refurb. Batteries don't die on the spot like engines, you can get a good indication of battery health simply by checking the real world range of the car (there's websites for this) and then taking it for a drive and see if it starts and drops in line with this, or you can plug in the OBD2 tool and look at the health indicator. If a battery has a problem, then I normally have the module repaired (there are several companies that do this now, prices start at £1k). If the battery has for some reason several modules failed (unlikely), then it is possible to just exchange the battery for a reconditioned unit with warranty (It's easy to take money off a car with a problem battery, the owner knows it as the range is not what it was, it's harder with an ICE car as they don't know that the tapping is a water pump or a old age. No one can guaranty that a car engine will do 10 years maintenance free, but statistically the battery is good for 180,000 miles with only 15% degredation (Tesla model S data with fleet of all ages) and comes with an 7 year 100,000 mile warranty or more (Kia is the lowest I have found and quoted, the general seems to be 8 and some are more than 100,000), but it is easier to gauge.
Where are these coal power stations? We only have one left and it shuts at the end of this year!
Risk of vandalism of sockets. This happened to begin with, but it is rare now.. they got bored,? The sockets are not live until the safety checks are done with the vehicle. We have telephone cabinets and lots of equipment left in the open with reasonable build quality to be vandal resistant, our infrastructure still seems to work well.
People do still go to chargers at peak time, but that's for less than 1% of 70% of journeys for 'the rich who are not so rich' and the other 30% who you don't do justice for by going to far and not analysing enough what the affect it will have on them. They are the people trying to find a space close to home to get expensive overnight parking, or visiting a supermarket carpark to try and top up and hopefully be done before they finish their shopping, all whilst paying more for the inconvenience whilst I leave the cars on the lot charging overnight or at home, charging overnight, or on the lot (charging on the lot - but I tend not to because it costs more in daytime).
With regards to 10-15 minutes for charging, maybe more... This is moot.. It depends how often you need to do it. I cover 30k a year in mostly EV, and still find I rarely charge more than once every 10 days, but when I do, I charge to get to my destination where I can charge, not to full. Sometimes that really is a splash and dash of 2-3 minutes. A recent ski trip with friends did not really inconvenience at all as a 700 mile trip I thought about it, get up early and head out fully charged. Stop for breakfast (fully charge), a few more miles stop, a few more miles more and stop for lunch (fully charge), a few more miles and one last charge to get the back roads to the mountain and the climb up the mountains, arrive with 60% (probably to worried about the efficiency in the climb a few 1000m) and then depart to be at 74% by the bottom of the mountain and do the reverse. I only really stopped twice more. When you look at that as a massive journey, is it really that bad that on such a massive journey you are 'slightly' inconvenienced. Remember, so few journeys are over 100 miles, so it's only 'a few' people who do regularly long journeys, and hey.. sorry.. I have little time for the few that do compared to the 30% who you don't focus on.
The rage bait didn't work 🤦
Then i wil stop driving because my health comes bad with it .calles EHS ,fog in the brain pain in the ears etc
EV is just so much better option than over complicated ICE engines. It is like crt revisions vs flat screens.
One can hark over the noice or fumes that some folks seem to like but it it just silly. Move on with the advanced technology and leave the legacy technology for the weekends.
Electric drive trains are definitely far more efficient, cleaner and less complicated. But for some, they're just impossible to live with. If they weren't, I would have gotten one years ago
The fossil fuel industry is gloating because so many of you want to continue to give them your hard earned money, go ahead, but I am done with them and saving a bunch of money with my EV. Lastly, we as a species can’t afford to burn fossil fuels for another century or two because if we do, there won’t be much of a civilization left at the end. Much of the oil reserves that we have left needs to stay in the ground my friends!
That's a very valid point, there. I HATE giving those c*nts money. I hate sitting in traffic, burning my money. That was one of the things that led me to become enthusiastic about EVs. I really hope the charging issues are solved soon
The most important aspect of electric vehicles is undoubtedly the battery technology. In the future, advancements will lead to batteries capable of storing enough energy to drive 1000 km on a single charge and recharging in just five minutes or less. These future batteries will be 100% recyclable, making them not only efficient but also environmentally friendly. With such breakthroughs, we can say goodbye to fossil fuels and conventional power generators, ushering in a new era of sustainable energy and revolutionizing the way we travel and power our lives. This transformative battery technology will change the world as we know it.
Fast charging is limited by the grid
Where do you think the electricity comes from to charge an EV?! 😅
The power of a little child's smile
But seriously, like the daft noisy bugger with the funny Bri'ish accent in the clip says:
It really doesn't matter where the electricity comes from
- which is probably the only accurate thing he says in the whole clip!
You tell me, where does it come from?
@@EcoKiwiMagazine That's beautiful, you should watch monsters inc.
It's electrons silly and they come from a variety of sources. If you want to know where your electrons may be coming from (and I know electron and Ion flow is not that simple) just google gridwatch and go have a look.
I don’t think it will suck. Air quality in cities will be 100x better and we can all breathe more easily.
I think the worst thing about ev's is that NONE of them have hidroneumatic suspension 😂
And also can't go 1200km in a ful charge (like a tank of diesel on a C5) or be charged in 5 minutes - including payment (like filling up a c5)
On top of that, i can say i have some privacy concerns (as other than charging from the regular grid at home, we always need to use some sort card that identify us)
"I think the worst thing about ev's is that NONE of them have hidroneumatic suspension" Amen!
You know when you use a card payment, that is traceable. Also government made it law a few months ago that all rapid chargers have to take card payment. It was stupid that they didn't in the first place.
The worst part of EVs is that they will (and currently are) making electricity expensive, same electricity we use for lighting our homes, cooking meal or charging mobile phone. So even if you are currently not driving EV you are still affected and having more expensive life because of it.
How is it making electricity expensive? The price hikes of electricity are due to the war in Ukraine (or so they say), EVs don't have the market penetration to justify a price rise
Get a solar, it will be free within five to ten years, depending upon where u live
Did your electricity get cheaper when your light bulbs changed from incandescent to LED? It should... based on your theory, but it didn't. Your reasoning is incredibly dumb and not based in reality.
EVs are not making electricity expensive. Disasters are doing that and the disasters are getting worse because of the burning of fossil fuels. Electricity is twice (at least) as efficient as fossil fuels.
@@sahastradhara While I agree with you it's not as easy as pie for everyone to get solar but everyone should as if you can you reduce the costs of energy generated plus the savings increase as the other energy sources go up over time via inflation.
What a lot of scaby old bollocks:
the current average use life for a 2020 Model Y is over 300,000 miles...
with still no need to replace the battery!
The battery is the only real thing likely to need being replaced... one day
perhaps after 500,000 miles
... of gasless driving!
Average life use? 300,000 miles? Care to back that up?
If there is no oil or gas there will be no EVs, think of all the components that go into an EV that have parts that are made with gas and oil. If you think scrap yards are full now roll on 10 years they will be piled a mile high. Who is going to buy an 8 or 10 year old EV car with reduced range with a new battery that costs anything up to 45k when you can buy an 8 plus year diesel or petrol or even a hybrid that will have the same range like when it was new. Full battery cars for the masses won't work. Hydrogen cleaner petrol and diesels, biofuels, synthetic fuels are the way things will go once all the climate alarmists see the reality of life.
Hydrogen and biofuels won't cut it
Your conclusion assumes that nothing develops in response to new needs, but history proves this assumption wrong. Human interest in making money often sparks creativity.
Another issue is that a battery doesn't just shut down and stop working. I have a 2016 Ioniq, with almost 200.000 km on the road and we still get more mileage out of the car than the factory assumptions. Still, 230 km at the guess-o-meter when I enter the car to drive to work in the morning. If I remember right the estimated range was 228 km on a nice summer day (+20C).
Batteries can be upgraded with new cells, like gearboxes and other stuff that breaks down on ICE cars. Cars in the EU are now an average of 12.3 years old, and that is a reason why the cars don't run forever, people do not want to drive old, less efficient less traffic-safe cars, so if a car is possible to recirculate after 12-15 years its fine for most of the car owners.
And EVs can be upgraded, fixed and taken car of if you want to spend money on it. And the neighbour's opinion is also a thing... 🙂
@@HansOleBenonisen Hi there! You're right that I assume for the purposes of this video that things will be the way they. That's because I've seen so many "new breakthroughs" go nowhere, like solid-state batteries, graphene, and seawater batteries. Until it's out in the world and functioning, I assume it still isn't feasible.
"Cars in the EU are now an average of 12.3 years old, and that is a reason why the cars don't run forever, people do not want to drive old, less efficient less traffic-safe cars, so if a car is possible to recirculate after 12-15 years its fine for most of the car owners." You make a good point there, but don't forget that 12.3 years is an average. There are many, many cars where I live that are more than 20 years old still running as daily drivers. I was going to dedicate a part of the video to it but it was getting far too long. I wanted to prove that many people like to keep their cars for as long as possible, and EVs (again, with current technology) might not be able to last that long without an expensive battery pack replacement.
I honestly hope I'm wrong, and that batteries and tech improve, that would be brilliant. If it does, I'll make another video on the subject.
Battery technology is improving leaps and bound as time passes.
And oil will always be there it just won't be in use like it is today
EVs are not made with gas and oil. I suspect you are saying the electric generation is from those sources but that while somewhat true is changing even faster than EV's are rolling out. It's less costly. Plus the mining machines and trucks are transitioning to renewable energy.
Most people charge at home. EVs are not dangerous. Assisted driving is safer You can install street charging easily.