BRITAIN | Time to Rejoin Europe?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 13 มิ.ย. 2024
- In January 2020, Britain finally left the European Union. However, while the Leave campaign promised this would bring huge benefits for the country, domestically and on the world stage, things have not gone well. The economy is suffering as trade with the EU has become more difficult. And a shortage of EU workers has helped fuel inflation, making the cost of living crisis worse. All this has led to growing discontent with Brexit, and even 'Bregret'. As a result, this has led to talk that the UK could rejoin the European Union. But just how likely is this? And when could it happen?
Britain always had difficult and complex relations with the European Union. When European integration began after the Second World War, it took a back seat, preferring to concentrate on rebuilding ties to the Empire. But by the 1960s, decolonisation was in full swing, and Britain was suffering economically. However, its first two applications to join the European Economic Community (EEC), were rejected. And it was not until 1 January 1973 that it joined. After that, the relationship remained difficult. Although Margaret Thatcher led the creation of the Single Market, she opposed political integration under an 'ever closer union'. And while Prime Minister Tony Blair was far more pro-European, he didn't take Britain into the single currency (the euro) or the border-free zone (the Schengen Area). Instead, having come back to power in 2010, the Conservatives again found themselves divided over Europe, leading to a referendum on 23 June 2016 that saw people vote to leave the EU by 52-48%. However, since leaving in January 2020, things have not gone well. A majority now think leaving was a mistake. However, rejoining is not as simple or as quick as some might like to believe.
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VIDEO CHAPTERS
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:42 Democracy and Brexit
01:42 The Emergence of the European Union
02:44 Britain’s Path to EU Membership
03:48 The UK's Difficult Membership of the EU
04:57 The 2016 Brexit Referendum
06:33 The Brexit Process
07:32 Britain After Brexit
09:16 - Could the UK Rejoin the European Union?
11:09 - When Could Britain Rejoin the EU?
SOURCES AND FURTHER READING
UK Government www.gov.uk/
European Union european-union.europa.eu/inde...
European Movement UK www.europeanmovement.co.uk/
UK in a Changing Europe ukandeu.ac.uk/
Brexit Central (Archive) brexitcentral.com/
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#Britain #EU #Brexit
Regular viewers to the Q&A will know my views on Brexit. I think it was a terrible mistake. But crucially there are increasing signs that many people who voted Leave in 2016 do too. But what can be done about it? Should Britain try to rejoin? And should the EU accept it back, and under what conditions? As ever, I really look forward to hearing your thoughts and comments.
We are watching the irreversible economic decline of both EU and Britain. The USA will cannibalise them, together or separately.
Professor Lindsay, rational and reasonably minded Australians always knew way back in 2016 that Brexit would only end in tears for the United Kingdom. Yet, Sydney is on the other side of the globe. To put it simply, Brexit has been the world’s slowest train wreck which has been just painful to see for the better of a decade now. How time flies. 🇦🇺 🇬🇧
As an EU citizen, I am in favour of a pragmatic approach, despite all the low blows we have been dealt during the Brexit process: If it is beneficial for the EU and the UK, why not. I would even be sympathetic to Shengen and Euro opt-outs as long as there is at least one other EU member with it. But the rebate should not be returned under any circumstances.
@@markopinteric Forget it. Why should the UK be given special concessions and dispensations, while other EU members do not receive these considerations at all?
French President Charles de Gaulle was right all along: the British are more trouble than what they are worth. 🇫🇷 🇪🇺
Okay, I respect this channel but I passionately hate misrepresenting statistics in furtherance of a narrative. I'm not disagreeing that Brexit was a bad idea, but 7:55 is a severely misleading statement. The 4% assumed loss in potential productivity is not a "4% drop in British GDP" - it is an estimate of reduced GDP growth; *over 15 years* no less. That's an estimated annualised 0.24% loss in potential GDP growth. There is a MASSIVE difference between those two things and I would expect Prof Ker-Lindsay to understand that difference much better than I do. What you implied is the equivalent of the 2009 financial crisis. This is a central pillar of the entire argument and makes the whole thing border on the kind of fake news and selective reportage tactics one would expect from the likes of Breitbart.
This video hardly mentions the actual exit from the free trade area (the single factor most drastically effecting the EU and the UK's economies) at the end of 2020 and how impossible it is to differentiate causalities between Brexit, Covid and the war in Ukraine - something all honest economists have admitted. Or the fact that UK-EU trade volumes have recovered entirely to above both pre-pandemic and pre-Brexit levels. Also I need someone to explain to me exactly how the cost of living crisis can be blamed on leaving the EU when Germany - the leading EU economy - is literally in technical recession?
Why not talk about actual issues like the impasse on Northern Ireland's future or expand on the impact on fisheries, immigration and asylum seekers? Or the UK's loss of influence on continental issues. Imagine the potential of the staunchly pro-Ukraine UK government (both Conservative and Labour, mostly) in the EU parliament. There are real issues that can be used to make this point, but supported by more than just media hype that's easy to see through by anyone who looks into the actual figures in the video.
As a non Brit, my impression has always been that the UK was okay with the EU only as long as it suited its needs.
In practice, the UK always appeared to be cherrypicking, only committing to those treaties that were advantageous.
This hasn't changed, I think. Those Brits who want to rejoin probably think that it will be possible to maintain the exceptional status that the UK used to have. They still refuse the idea of the EU as a political entity with its perspective of an ever growing political unification.
This is what makes a rejoining improbable in the short term. Mr Johnson's reneging on international treaties and deals certainly hasn't helped.
Thanks. Sadly, I think you’re right. I got into a Twitter discussion with se Rejoiners the other week who seemed to think that we could rejoin without committing to the euro or Schengen. Apart from the fact that this is now a formal demand for membership, I firmly believe that we should want to join both. And if we want to continue to have exceptions then we aren’t ready to rejoin, and the EU don’t want us. We were been a difficult partner for too long. And it’s not like joining both will be a bad deal. It will be the excellent deal that all the other members have. It just won’t be the amazing one we had, but lost because of the Brexiters.
We are an Island nation. Of course we are cherry picking. If we don't we will get taken advantage of.
Immigration is what broke the brits back. Most eastern European migrants used to head to the UK.
@@JoeeyTheeKangaroo *laughs in Gaeilge.
@@JamesKerLindsayAs a French person, I would love the UK to join Schengen, would definitely make it shorter to board the Eurostar. Although of course Ireland would have to agree to join as well.
One problem may be that a current majority in favour of rejoining the EU may be dependent on the UK doing so on its previous terms. This is extremely unlikely.
Cant happen therefore wont happen.
@@user-rq5sd1sq8o observing the way your "control over our own monetary policy" is performing , i would prefer if you keep the pound and dont become a risk to the Euro.
oh, if you really sell your kidney, make sure they pay you in Dollar , not in pound.
@@Ooze-cl5tx Given that the pound has survived for several hundred years, while the Euro is less than three decades old, not yet a fully developed currency and run by committee, I would suggest that the risk may still be in the reverse.
I would wager that anyone who has changed their mind on the matter didn't know what the EU was or what they were truly voting on in the first place. None of the reasons for leaving have changed so it sees like just poor public mood
@@aituk I doubt most people on either side really fully knew what they were voting for. However, comments sections like this certainly bring out opinionated people in both camps who think they do.
As an American who travels to Britain frequently, I can tell a huge difrence in the UK since Brexit. It feels poorer, less resilient, less innovative, and with fewer resources. Goods and services that used to be readily available are scarce. No one is starving, but thre are shortages and more strikes, and more pressures on people.
@@badofi USA did not leave the EU and you could say the same for the USA.
Everything in UK got so expensive.
Just recently had to buy some parts for motorbike. UK price 800 GBP... import from Japan with shipping 256 GBP
Clothes? the brands I buy are now cheaper to import from US than to buy in UK
Everyone in UK suddenly started to increase prices for no reason
Thanks. A lot of people have said the same. We all see it. Shortages. Difficult to get parts. Price rises. A dwindling band of leavers still argue that it is going well (with others effectively acknowledging its failed but complaining it was never implemented correctly - whatever that might mean. The only harder Brexit was an embargo on Europe!)
@badofi Seriously, I’m happy to have a sensible debate here, but at least start with sensible points. No one sabotaged Brexit. It was always destined to fail. And enough if the nonsense about an EU dictatorship. It is in fact far more democratic that the U.K. I hear plenty shouting about unelected officials in Brussels, but none of those same voices up in arms about Johnson making an unknown 29 year old a law maker for life!
@@badofi Anything to quote Donald Tusk emberked upon "without a sketch of a plan" is bound to fail .But do not worry about the UK ever being back in in your life time. The watchword in the EU is "Once bitten twice shy" so Britain Bye, Bye.
I'm sorry for the mess you got into. I'm Chilean but my sister used to live in the UK - for 15 years to be exact - working as a professional very successfuly. Her 3 kids were born there and went to school in London. But last year they decided the economic situation had gotten too bad; neither her or her husband had projects within the UK anymore...so they relocated to Canada and probably will return to Santiago sooner than later. Literally our situation here in a "third-world country" looks better than a supposedly rich nation! I guess at least we have more room to grow, unlike the UK after Brexit.
Such a shame. Last time I visited them, in 2019, I could already tell London was in a worse condition than before, especially with all the homeless people I saw.
I have visited Chile and it is definitely not “third world”. You should be very proud of your country.
Thanks. It is very sad. I know many other stories like this. And even many Brits are now leaving the U.K. to pursue opportunities elsewhere.
@@Andrew-wy7ji yes, I know we're better off than plenty of developing countries, but I meant it in comparison to the UK. But yeah, living here is nice
The decision to leave the EU was the deciding factor in my wife and and I emigrating to Australia on retirement. We just couldn't see ourselves growing old in the country we'd grown up in.
Right on "supposedly" rich nation!!
I have seen little evidence of the average Brit (even Remainers) having made any serious effort to learn what the European project is, and to think of it in terms beyond Single Market access and immigration. Britain rejoining the EU would be a complete waste of time for everyone so long as “Europe” means nothing more to Brits than holidaying in Spain, crossing at Dover to buy wine in Calais and having to deal with foreigners “stealing their jobs”.
So true
I agree with you topping by the EU is much more than a trading block.
Yes. And if you've lived and worked in Europe, you'd know that the EU means much to them
Brits have a rather limited understanding and like of their neighbours but seem to hold places further afield in higher esteem, places that most of them will never visit.
Well all of that will change given that Spain is apparently now going to be continually on fire during the holiday season. People from the contintent will probably start flocking to seaside resorts here for some rain and a break from the heat 😅 all those knackered hotels in places like Hastings and Blackpool will spring back in to life 🤣
Convincing Europe to allow the UK back in is one thing, but the UK will never receive its opt-outs and tax rebates that it gave up when it left. Joining the EU will require joining the Euro zone, Schengen and many other EU institutions. Good luck on that!
Convincing eu members is an utopía.
The UK will be negotiating with *itself* until 2035. Maybe after that, the actual negotiation can start.
@@Ikbeneengeit
Well to comply with the Copenhagen Criteria
-Political criteria: stable institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities;
-Economic criteria: a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competition and market forces in the EU;
-EU acquis criteria: the ability to take on and implement effectively the obligations of membership, including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union.
that is exatcly what UK (or England) has to do.
@@trident6547 It's more than that. It also has to accept the Four Freedoms - and that will be difficult in the UK because of the deep rooted xenophobia and the Brexiteers and their media focusing so much on supporting this xenophobia.
@@Ikbeneengeit Before that the EU might no longer exist and if it does the UK probably wont want anything to do with it.
People tend to forget that before Brexit hype next to noone in England was thinking about the EU let alone against it.
Eurosceptisism was mostly found in the mainland and amongst the young. In England (predominantly) it was something a select few mostly uneducated, daily express/ mail readers, in the arse end of nowhere had been excited about.
It seems to me that the UK can never realize the benefits of EU entry if they rejoin vs not leaving at all. Being an earlier member helped set the terms in its favour. Now the UK would have to make greater concessions than before.
Greater? Equal to other member countries. And are not "concessions". LoL. The same old deviated mindset.
I remember Nigel Farage sitting in the european parliament with his cronies grinning disgustingly and they all put up little british flags on the descs. I don't think we want them back. 😆
Very true. We’ll never get the amazing deal we had before. But we will still get an excellent deal. It’ll just be the same one the other members enjoy.
you still believe the Brits are exceptional and entitled to what they want... that time is over, EU rules or no rules!
@@Arltratlo that's not what I said nor what I meant. The Brits had an exceptional position within the EU and they simply abandoned it. Getting that back won't happen. I think it's an accurate assessment.
Thanks for the really great synopsis - I have to say that we would be in a much better place if we had leaders, from any party, that were actually interested in what's good for the country - but for decades we've have had leaders only interested in being in power - that is their priority and they will campaign on any issue that will achieve that priority regardless of it's actual benefit to the country!!!
Putins brexit. Who got the Russian money. Fog in England UK cutoff.
Thanks. I agree. Labour’s policy on Brexit (and voting reform, and press reform) rather shows this.
Exactly what Johnson did!! The man did not want to leaveEurope but saw an opportunity for the Tory leadership and convinced himself it was good for Britain. Now with the daily boat crossings France refuses joint border controls and instead it provides cover for the boats towards the English Channel. EU leaders Germany and Denmark refuse to visit the Returns policy. Sunak says it is complex but it is not EU determined to rub Tory noses in it. Can't blame them. Boats will overwhelm UK
@@agnescraig2912 exactly - i've always thought Boris was, at heart, a 'remainer' but decided to campaign for 'leave' expecting to lose but then get to say 'i told you so' for the next 25 years!!! but that blew up in his face and he had to see through something he didn't believe in!!! - And, now you've got me started, i don't think he ever actually wanted to be PM - remember he could have had the job when Teresa got it but managed to get his mate Gove to 'stab him in the back' at the last minute!!! - Phew!!! - And Gove still ended up in his cabinet!!! - It's all really fishy (IMHO)
@@patrickporter1864 Why did you bring up Putin in a Brexit debate? You missed the Durham/Mueller reports?
No hard feelings my british friends, but if you thought France was oposed to UK joining the EU, try to convince any spanish goverement to NOT veto you unless the Gibraltar-issue is properly adressed
Touché!! 😂
I expect most Gibraltarians would prefer to be a self governing part of Spain and have nothing more to do with the UK.
They probably would have to give Gibraltar up (as a self-governing province of some kind) but would open Spain up to questions about their two enclaves in Africa. I don't see Spain having to give them up while getting Gibraltar back though.
@@janbananberg357they can mention it, it will do their application no good.
@@calumscott8737 I mean we'll see, if the Far-Right take power or the Center-Left do, it'll bring uncomfortable questions up.
Something I hate so much is how we (in the UK) seem to constantly isolate ourselves from the rest of Europe. For example how we have a "special relationship" with a country thousands of miles away, or refuse to fully adopt the metric system used by the rest of the continent. Sure, there is some historical basis to it, but we don't live in the 1800s anymore. European integration was such an amazing opportunity for us to accept our new status in the world post WW2. We are no longer a superpower, we're a regional power in Europe, yet it seems like our government just refuses to accept this reality, clinging onto "empire nostalgia" and the "glory days". It's sad because I genuinely believe that a stronger, more integrated Europe is the only real democratic force that can ensure not total and complete American domination over most of the planet, and I just wish that we could get behind it and realise that we're no longer an empire spanning 1/4 of the world, we're a small archipelago, and that's not a bad thing, but we just need to fully adapt, i.e. by forging a closer bond with the rest of Europe through re-entering the EU.
Thanks. I completely agree. The wider sense of British exceptionalism is and endless source of frustration to me as well. I teach a course on Britain and Europe and most of my students are from the US. They just can’t get their heads around the idea why we would do something so utterly destructive.
As an American I hope the European project is successful as a model for worldwide integration. While I do love my country, I don’t think we can continue allowing powerful nations to act unilaterally without a higher authority to supervise, and my countrymen cannot pretend to be that higher authority after 2003.
You won’t have to worry about an evil American take over of Earth . In 25 years we will all be beholden to a communist Chinese dictatorship in charge of all the levers of power. Then you will wish for the good old days.
Say goodbye to any notion of us rejoining the European Union. It wouldn`t have us. Thick people are easily led into coming to stupid decisions. This is, as likely as not, why thick pepole are so poor. They make decisions which are totally at odds with their own interests. What did JR ) Mogg ) do the moment we chose to leave ? He moved his interests into the Republic of Ireland - a Member State of the Eurpoean Union.
Because America is the UK's boyfriend. Their hopes of empire now sit in the US purview. It also has a special bond with canada Australia new zealand aka 5 eyes.
From the Netherlands: EU membership of England was always problematic indeed and the Leavers were so insulting towards Europe. So a new membership must be based on a vast majority of people and not only just because of the economic advantages. As a European I hope the English people will figure it out and rejoin, the UK is such a fundamental part of European culture and history. They liberated our country from the nazi's, so forever grateful.
Thanks so much. I completely agree. I hope that Britain will rejoin. But it must be as a full member of the project!
You can only join again if you put your heart in the Union and if you feel Europeans because you never did. This includes adopting the Euro currency. Excellent analysis by James!
yep that's why I think it's dead. The brits will never drop the queen on their currency or their ego to enter the EU and just be a region of the EU project. I mean.... it's fine I respect the voice of the people.
@@TheBlackManMythLegend Since the queen passed and a far less popular king took over the sentiments of attachment to the currency are losing ground fast. Most younger people would have no problem at all with the euro, it's often mentioned when ppl talk of rejoining, it's not the issue that it was.
@@fruitbatcat London is the money laundering capital of the world. The banking sector would never allow the Euro to be adopted.
So those nations which aren't part of EU are not European?! 😂😂😂😂
you not getting mine the eu is done.
Britain (and Switzerland) need to clean up their whole corrupt organized crime offshore tax-haven (and money laundering) banks problem before they enter the EU. I had heard that the EU's regulations and requirements for transparency on currency production and controls were so strict that both Britain and Switzerland refused full integration into the EU and that is why they kept the pound sterling and Swiss franc.
it is likely to become worse as the UK is getting ready to be vassal state to the USA.
The EU shouldn't be lecturing anyone on financial matters considering half its members are perpetually bankrupt.
Exactly! In fact it is my opinion that this was reason for the triggering of the decision to leave the EU by the😎UK elite and tax avoiders
Don't compare Switzerland with Britain when it comes to the EU and Euro question. Completely different situation.
But Switzerland isn't in the EU ...
From the Netherlands: I think that Britain should never be allowed back into the EU. You have mentioned ALL the arguments (1. The attitude of sitting on the fence and no real commitment. The damage done by the Brexit process. Besides the fact that the UK has become somewhat of a Third World country, for which the EU would have to pay to get the industry, the NHS back on its feet. I feel sorry for all the remain-voters and the Scots, but I feel that the UK has had its chances to be a full EU-member. Thus the door to the EU should be closed forever!!
Thanks. I can see why so many in Europe feel frustrated. But countries go through phases. Britain was problematic. But it also did a lot of good in its time. Many EU policies were driven by the U.K. it also helped to balance France and Germany, not just against each other, but also when they tried to team up against small countries. And it also helped increase the EU’s clout in the international stage. (But sadly Brexiters failed to understand that EU membership also helped to increase the UK’s standing. It was a two-way street.) And I agree that reform is needed in the U.K. Overall, I think that a fully committed and reformed Britain should be able to rejoin. And that is what the EU has always been about. It has always seen itself as a continental community. Most EU policy makers agree that an EU with the UK firmly on board would be beneficial. But, as I said, they’ll have a high threshold for believing that Britain would be committed - as they should!
De Gaulle was right. Being insulars, the British never felt part of the continent and never will.
@@alexandrelarsac9115 Precisely why I, and the majority of those who voted, chose to leave the EU.
@@heycidskyja4668 "A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or to a group of persons while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring losses. Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals." Carlo M Cipolla
@@heycidskyja4668 Nope. From what I hear coming out of the mouths of leave voters, the majoity were just easily led, ill-informed xenophobes.
I have been missing your weekly videos! I hope all is well. Thanks for all the content :)
Thanks so much! I’m taking a bit of a break over August. (I’m actually on a road trip across Europe.) But I hope to be back at the end of the month.
Thank you for your video! I have a question:
Andrew Marr, in The New Statesman, has been arguing that the UK should seek to rejoin the single market - in a Norway-like arrangement. This would restore frictionless trade and freedom of movement. The UK would be in a "rule takers position" (i.e. no influence over the rules of the common market) - but would surely be better than the situation now.
However, other commentators have remarked that there is no mechanism to just join the single market. Norway, Switzerland etc are in the EFTA, which has ruled out UK ever joining. So the only mechanism back to the single market is full EU membership.
Is this true?
Thanks so much. Great question. I tend to be in the ‘where there’s a will, there’s a way’ school of thought on this. I absolutely agree that rejoining the SM and CU is not only a good, but is essential. Since making this video I have moved to an EU country. The cost and complications of settling here have made it beyond the reach of most Britons now, it is certainly beyond the means of most young people. On top of this, I have had to give up many of the products I bought from the U.K. Again, the cost and complications are just too much. I am also hearing how many people are giving up on the U.K. for holidays and education. Brexit has been disastrous. But on your question, I do think that the EU would be open to discussions for a negotiated arrangement for the U.K. it is still a sufficiently large market for it to make sense to treat it on its own. But the UK will also have to realise that it will be a rule taker and won’t get to set the terms of that relationship. The EU won’t be in any mood for cherry picking. If we want to be in the SM then we will have to be in it on the same terms as others, but without a role in decision making. That’s not going to go down well. But people will have to accept that the alternative is Britain’s continuous decline, which will inevitably also further reduce the quality of public services. All very tragic, and avoidable.
No way. There are 32 countries that have to agree for UK to be accepted. Nobody has forgotten the steady denial to any deepening of EU institutions and instead pushing for accepting any one with catastrophic results. The best that has happened to EU in the last 20 years is the departure of UK.
nah UK leaving hurts eu too but improves it as well but we must remind ourselves that united we are strong and helping each others will bring more stability and happiness
"The best that has happened to EU in the last 20 years is the departure of UK."
Assertion without evidence
32 countries? There are 27 EU member states currently.
@@seadkolasinac7220 More united EU, faster responses to the crisis situations due to the departure of the chronically contentious member slowing every process down, approval of EU by member states has never been higher than since the sheet-show that was Brexit, foreign investment relocation from UK to EU, cutting ties with the London laundromat and decentralizing financial apparatus, removal of point of contention because of UK's special status, opt-outs and rebates that the other member countries don't have. I could go on if I thought about it for a minute, but the first few things that I immediately thought of will suffice, I believe.
Samo proguglaj EU brexit benefits, Seade. Naći ćeš ih gomilu.
@@seadkolasinac7220 Oh really? What happened to Italexit? What happened to Frexit? EU-Critics became less radical after brexit because they saw how horrible it went.
Having been a member until recently doesn't really help much since the UK didn't meet the requirements for new members when they were written, let alone when it left. Any divergence after that just makes it worse.
i think there are more real Europeans in Turkey as in the UK...
just put the UK behind the Turkish EU application, first deal with Turkey....
and after that have maybe, maybe a look at England, because i expect Scotland to veto them, with France!
@@Arltratlo Well, there wouldn't be anything to deal with if GB was "put behind" Turkey - since easily 20 of nowadays 27 EU-members won't accept Turkey in ever.
@@gehtdichnixan8561 yip, been my intention to point that out...
the UK is screwed,
and i am happy its not in the EU!
Was worth a second viewing 4 weeks later. Thanks Prof!
Thanks. Sorry I’ve gone quiet. I’m taking August off. I’ve just completed a 2000 mile, eleven country road trip through Europe and now taking a couple of weeks off for a rest. Hopefully back into everything at the start of September.
Theres no way ill ever vote to go back into the EU.
Good for you
Why???
@@amcc5887 Because I'm not a weak kneed remoaner missing his Spanish trips, and the EU plans to carry on punishing the UK whether we rejoin or not. We'd be far better of joining or helping to create something like Canzuk.
As long as the UK keep viewing the EU as a buffet from which it can choose this will not happen.
yes of course. Public opinion in the EU would be against the UK coming back just as it was before. I would go down to the street to say "no". Too many priviledges were granted to the UK. The EU is not a "help yourself" buffet. The UK, the peoples must be eagerly willing to join the European project, just as described in the video. But one day, probably in one or two generation time, the UK will have realized the EU is a wonderful project. First they need to go throug their own experience as an outside country in a world run by blocs.
@@moniquehenry4041 As a Dutchman I would like to see our neighbours back into the EU. But that's just my opinion.
@@pjhgerlach As a Brit I can tell you we have no intention of rejoining that wretched union.
You have a new subscriber.
Moving back where I belong after 28 years on Florida.
Very informative presentation.
Thanks so much! And a very warm welcome to the channel.
belgian here, I think that the UK has and always will have a rightful seat at the table of european nations, however itd be nice for your political class to understand that if they ever want the UK back in the EU, they shoud realize that the EU is a political project, not just a trading association, for years your political class has been very dismissive of the EU, enjoying the benefits of free trade and movement but turning its head the other way when it came to EU integration; the special opt outs, the non commitment to join the eurozone, the "I want my money back" type of attitude...
As a Brit, I wholeheartedly agree.
The empire-craving-UK-flag-waving section of our society ought to read some history books, swallow their pride, and be grateful for the benefits a powerful seat in the world's 3rd largest market and political union can offer with full political commitment.
There's so many economic, political, and cultural projects we could get involved in with the diverse tapestry that is Europe.
You’re mistaking our politicians with people who have a conscience or care for the public good. Our rulers have no morals or care for anything but money for themselves and corporations.
Well said but as long as this wide spread anti EU sentiment has not changed, there is no way the UK can get back into the EU.
Soooo much so !
Well, Belgium isn't even a country innit?
No offense, but I would prefer if the UK stayed out of the EU, at least for the next 15 years. We need to sort out some stuff and I would be worried that the UK would block certain things, so I would rather not give the UK a say about issues of the immediate future. Feel free to join in 15 years when we have decided on our direction and then just accept what we have decided.
Completely agree. The EU is clearly in need of reform. It would be better to ask the question when the EU becomes a more attractive proposition.
@@allyeneedislove you wrote uk wrong.
@@MrNukedawhales Funny. Thanks
@@MrNukedawhales you've missed the point
@@allyeneedislove to simplify my point for you: the uk is a mess of a country that is dead weight which I don’t want to further drag us down with it. I used to live there and I think the decline of that country is crazy. just focus on yourself for the next 2 decades and then let’s evaluate the situation again.
If its the economic benefits tye UK is after is joining EFTA an option ?
Thanks. It could have been. But EFTA doesn’t want the U.K. as it would completely dominate them. The irony is that the U.K. previously left EFTA to join the EU (EEC).
@@JamesKerLindsay Perhaps there is scope for an EFTA2 the same, principle but separate.
Thank you for clarifying this matter and stating a logical time line for the possible rejoin. However, the way that you are putting the issue makes it seem that EU and UK are at an impasse. Don't you think that one of the sides will have to bend in order to achieve the greater good? If so, who do you think that will change their ways/conditions?
Thanks. I agree. But my sense is that it will have to be the U.K. that accepts the EU’s demands. Why should the other members accept Britain back into the club if it approaches the discussions by signalling that it still wants the exemptions that made it a difficult partner last time? Sadly, part of me thinks that Britain might just be irredeemable exceptionalism and will have to accept lonely isolation as the natural consequence of wanting to be separate and different!
@@JamesKerLindsay it's a very sad story of egos and prides, rather than a mutual benefit. I agree with you and it seems that some British people will have to change their ways in order to build a better future.
As always, professor... Great job and thank you!
@@Fyrlss Thank you!
No more British exceptionalism.
It is more English exceptionalism.
You cannot leave and re join like turning a tap on and off.
Wow! A balanced and realistic and truthful view of reality, how refreshing, I was a remainer and was sad at the result but since I now have an Irish passport, to Brexiteers, "Ya Boo Sucks to you!" What you have done to our young students who want to study abroad in Europe will lie on your soul long after you are gone
The most rediculous self inflicted calamity in history by a nation in my lifetime. Bravo England. You have achieved a marvelous distinction. Sorry to be enjoying the shadenfreud so much.
No. If other EU countries leave, and we form a true free market, trade will be far more fluid than the EU could ever manage.
Re-joining won't solve our problems, in ten years we'll be wanting to leave again!
Who says so?
Thanks. I’m not so sure. I think that if we do join it will be because we have finally taken on board the benefits if being European. And remember this is a decision for a younger generation. If we do rejoin, even in ten years, no one under 35 will have voted in the 2016 referendum. And all polling shows the young are far more European than the older Leavers.
In 10 years the Brexitersi will be either in the hospice or underground.
that will ne the underlying fear for sure
@@JamesKerLindsay You mean the older voters will have died off or am I taking you out of context? Just asking.....
The EU shouldn’t allow Britain to rejoin. It’ll give other members the idea that they can leave and come back whenever
the eu is so fragile it isn't really in a position to play hardball with anyone lol
@@007kingifrit how is it fragile? Sounds like you’re just trying to cope LOL
@@kayzeaza 1. the single currency moves money out of the periphery and into germany every year, hollowing out jobs and inudstry and populations of workers, impoverishing most states in the union. 2. the incredibly low birth rates in germany mean they can't continue to subsidize the peripheral countries for another 10 years. 3. the immigration crisis has filled the EU with people that hate europe causing violence and inevitable conflict to come. 4. the european banks are going to collapse, they have so many bad loans they must at this point. 5. they can't and won't stand up the russians, i know you think the russians are losing in ukraine because you watch the old news but come 2024 or 25 i suspect the russians will be in a more advantageous position than they are now.
and the europeans can't fix any of this because of their system where everyone has a veto
@@007kingifrit fragile? 😂 How exacrly? The EU is just getting stronger and homogenous year by year :)
@@liversuccess1420 Britain needs the EU more than the other way around. Im personally happy Britain left us, couldnt stand anymore watching those British politicians thinking they are entitled to something just because theyre British, being spoiled, and thinking Europe needs to make some concessions so they would stay. Brits made their bed, and should lie in it now. If at any point Britain decides to reapply for the EU membership, they should be denied.
Thanks for another great video, James, I love your channel!
Finally. Someone who says it like it was/is. No bias. Just facts..
I wish I found your channel earlier.
Please no, our EU has been so much more pleasant without the British
Explain how?
I'm British-Australian and I hate the British even Rejoiners hold a "we can opt out" idea, while I wish to rejoin, I only want to when we truly commit to a unified Europe, not with British exceptionalism
@@skp8748 Instead of the Polish and the Hungarians *and* the British whining it has just been the former two. Brussels actually got stuff done for a change
@@10Tabris01 Yeah those pesky Hungarians and Polish wanting to preserve their cultures how dare they?
@@ronmastrio2798 Well, the "door" called article 50 is right there.
Very clear explanation as always. Though one question:
Near the end of the video you talked about Britain getting closer to the EU and joining the Single Market. My understanding is the SM is not something you can join, without being in the EU, EEA or EFTA.
The EEA already indicated their reluctance to have the UK join them and the EU have made it clear there will be no more Swiss-like EFTA deals. That only leaves EU membership, does it not? Additionally there isn't much appetite in the EU to have more protracted negotiations with the UK. Unfortunately while much of the Brexit discussion focuses on the UK, very little discussion focuses on the EU's attitude to the UK joining. There seems to be a huge gap in knowledge about how the EU, member states and citizens view the UK joining, it's a pity we couldn't hear more about that from the academics.
Very good point Richard, everything is clear as you have said, but only on one side (the EU). The other side seems to always forget how rules and regulations work.
"while much of the Brexit discussion focuses on the UK, very little discussion focuses on the EU's attitude to the UK joining" Because A. This is one man show, the other man has already shaken all the burdens and is moving on. B. The discussion is only on one side (the UK's side) the other side isn't interested in it.
"There seems to be a huge gap in knowledge about how the EU, member states and citizens view the UK joining". When does the UK have proper knowledge of things in the EU. If the UK had proper knowledge on how the EU works and what EU citizens think, there would never be this Brexit drama.
What about Iceland or Norway, they are in the EFTA, is that something the EU hates too?
@Tay12345 they are in the EEA so more integrated than on the EFTA fringe.
@@Tay12345 EFTA members don't want the UK to join.
@@brigittegleiser-muller2513 I don’t think any government said that, only one article from a Norwegian MP
In 2019 Iceland’s foreign minister invited the UK to join in a BBC interview
A swiss MP also did the same thing in a Telegraph article
I don’t see a reason to block them
Hello Professor Ker-Lindsay hope that all is well… when will be posting your next video?
Thanks. All good. I took August off as I needed a break. And there have been some other charges at my end which have made making new videos difficult. (I moved country!) But I am certainly hoping to return in the next week or two. Many apologies for the absence.
@@JamesKerLindsay thanks for getting back professor, and all the best for your residence in the new place! Look forward to the next video
@@hrishikeshmasurkar8434 Thanks! Hopefully soon. :-)
i was against leaving at the time and im against joining again now, as much as i would like to get back on track with the EU we haven't changed anything, we would only be repeating mistakes. but i do want to point out we are far from the only country dealing with a sudden and drastic shift to the right wing of its political spectrum, though i think its fair to argue we have managed to inflict a greater wound on ourselves in the chaos than anyone else did (in Europe at least)
personally i think its fear, the effect of the climate reality sinking in and leaders realising they might actually see the consequences in the lifetime of their own political careers. desperation is often a recipe for authoritarianism, and until we deal with that problem the EU is better off without us.
P.S. though i do wish we could get the food standards back again today because the idea of eating American food is repulsive.
European far-right parties bark, but they don't bite and when they come to power they lose support. As Europe grows, the UK will become increasingly isolated.
agree on American food!
The EU should follow De Gaulle’s advice and reject any moves by the UK to “rejoin”.
how so?
Okay, so the good thing about you arguing from the same side I normally would, is that I get to play devil's advocate. 👿🧑⚖📝 The EU still suffers from UK kind of crap pretty widely... Hungary and Poland, obviously; but right-wing populism is a constant threat and election-by-election worry in too many EU countries to list. If we could peek one day under the cling-wrap at the UK, and discover its self-made manure has worked its magic, and British people re-emerge, grown into responsible international members of the international community, then... I think its time to talk. When they're actually ready to join according to the rules without cherry picking and exceptionalism: no opt-outs, no rebates, part of Schengen, adopting the Euro... this will be a sign in the stars that it will be in our interests for the UK to rejoin.
@@martinwinther6013 just jumping in the conversation UK as never been a constructive partner of EU 😉 all about integration UK was always against.we need to grow as a community and seek integration in many levels to be able to be strong in this crazy world . The UK is welcome in a different mood and will to integrate further or else is not welcome 🤗🤗. Never forget you chose to leave the result of a referendum full of lies , Russian interference , the dream of the British empire 😀
Are you having a laugh, rejoin the eu NEVER
BRITS GO HOME……!
The EU is still reeling from the aftermath of the 2016 vote…not so much the vote itself but the cynicism and abuse hurled at it afterwards.
So many UK politicians debased themselves in their rush to insult EU institutions. This hurt so many that forgetting it will be hard.
Yes indeed. It is a thing that Brits tend to forget that those they insulted so heavily will still remember this later, when the Brits needs their cooperation. That's one of the reasons I do not see the UK back in the EU before toe 2050th.
I forget that not , never and never .
@@willvangaal8412 🎉🎉
Split NI into 3 parts
Return to RoI one by one
Over the span of 21 years
The EU may still be reeling from 2016. Many Brits, like me and prof JKL, are still reeling from it as well. 48% is not exactly a small proportion and not everyone here is hostile to Europe. Words cannot describe how angry and disappointed I was when I woke up that day in June 2016 to learn the results of the vote.
I do have an interest in politics and world affairs, but am usually dispassionate about most issues. All except Brexit.
There are many things I am sorry about with regard to Brexit, and hearing here about the British government insulting our friends and neighbours in Europe is yet another thing to add to the list.
I am quite disappointed with the Labour Party. Despite 48% of the population wanting to remain in the EU, Labour has been pretty weak on policies to encourage cooperation with the EU. I recognize that rejoining the EU is politically untenable for several reasons, but Labour could push harder for a softer Brexit that would lessen the impact on the British people. The Tories are obviously worse in this regard but I am still disappointed in the weakness of the Labour leadership.
Great analysis. When UK exited I was sad for months but from todays perspective it seems as a net gain for the EU. Seems that UK and EU are not the best match after all since UK doesn't like the concept of european federation in which EU evolves gradually. That said, we are still staunch allies best seen by the recent Ukraine coalition. Perhaps some kind of separate arrangement like CH or Norway would be most beneficial.
Thanks. It was devastating for many of us pro-Europeans here in Britain too. It still is. I like to think that our place is back in the EU, but I think it requires a generational shift. That is clearly happening. But in the meantime sone sort of halfway house might be a good starting point.
@@JamesKerLindsay Thx for the reply Prof. Greetings from Zagreb.
Personally, as a European, I would be against an agreement like the Swiss or Norwegian one. We keep these traits because they are historical, but new ones shouldn't be made. Either the UK is in or it is out, any in between must be granted only to candidate nations. To do what you propose would be to save the UK thanks to Europe, but to make the British retain their pride in staying out, so I'm sorry but the answer is NO.
As soon as the UK becomes a Candidate for membership[, access to the Single Market becomes possible, however long it takes the UK to then progress from Candidate to member.
Doesn 't really matter how many in the UK have regret and want to go back.
First of all there are the technical obstacles for the UK: meeting the Copenhagen criteria. Only 4 of them, ut all very challenging for the UK, and one in particular: supporting ever closer union.
A lot of the "rejoiners" and " bregretters" still don't know what the EU stands for, or want ever o ser union. They just want back in out of economic necessity. Like in the 1960's. The EU knows better than to create a groundhog day experience.
After that, there are 27 members to convince and 35 chapters to fulfil, of which the UK only meets half.
To top it off: Schengen and € are part of the deal, and England will never go for that.
Safe to say that joining (rejoining doesn't exist) is decades away.
Thank god on my knee'"s for that .
I am glad I'm not the only one who has noticed everything you said. I think decades from joining is optimistic. I don't think it can ever happen.
As the electorate changes with time I would argue with your point that the English will never relinquish the Pound. Young people actually embrace change and I think the tipping point for this particular 'hurdle' may only be a couple of decades away.
@@deannilvalli6579 de Gaulle has been proven right in his assessment. It is a mentality issue, thdt might only change when the UK has broken up and England is on its own. Maybe that will end the arrogance and exceptionalism from the empire era.
@@tuisitala9068 thank you for sharing your view.
Could be, but you are looking at young people now that have been part of the EU and lost something. Young people of the future will have grown up outside the EU, God knows how they would look to those issues. Imo it will depend on education. As long as the glorification of the UK and it's past continues a new generation of exceptionalists is raised that might be less willing to choose for what they have never experienced than the youngsters of today that realised what they are missing out on.
A bit ironic that the UK wanted it's 'sovereignity back' that it believed it lost by joining the world's most successful free trade block, only to try to join as many free trade areas as possible, and hence once again 'lose' it's sovereignity.
that is being disingenuous free trade areas and the EU are completely different one doesn't have the ambition to one day be a superstate (not saying that's a bad or good thing)
@@StarNote96not true.
If you define sovereignty as being able to fully make your own laws without outside interference, which was often a way used by pro-Brexit people. Then joining other free-trade agreements which demand common regulatory standards so that both parties can trust the other’s products are safe and there is no unfair competition. But: that means no more full sovereignty to make your own laws.
@@JABN97 or accept other countries’ lower standards.
Of course it's different, in the EU, UK was a rule shaper, in the deals it gets now it's a rule taker. Superstate stuff is science fiction.
@@JABN97That's very different from European courts having actual jurisdiction in the UK, etc.
Thanks for your analysis professor, from afar I would tend to agree with your conclusions here, especially regarding the previous opt-outs being a major sticking point for any return.
In the long run, as another commenter said, it may prove to be a more comfortable position for Britain to interact with the single market, or even join it, as an outsider. You’d know better than me but I’ve never gotten the impression Britain considers itself in a collective with continental Europe, and has historically kept continental politics at an arm’s length. So while the numbers may say what they do, this may prove to be a more comfortable operating position for as independently-minded a country as Britain.
Another issue is that while America and Britain have found their place in the post-February 2022 global order, the EU and its leading states seem to be struggling to figure out where exactly they fit in. I know some in both Britain and America are wary of domination of the EU by French and German influence groups which are seemingly more dedicated to business than to security and seek appeasement of Moscow and especially Beijing.
One place this has been illustrated is in the recent push to make Ursula von der Leyen (we could have a whole debate of its own about her, but we’ll save that for another day) the head of NATO over Britain’s Ben Wallace, especially because it was supposedly due to Britain actually going “too far” in supporting Ukraine for the liking of America, Germany and France. I know that back here in America, the Biden administration’s stance has miffed many Ukraine supporters on both sides of the aisle.
As an outsider, I would guess that for some in Britain these developments confirm many of the preconceived notions about the EU and its leading states which led to Brexit in the first place.
In any case that’s more than enough commentary from me, thanks as always professor! I watched this video when it first came out but forgot to comment, hope you’re enjoying your well-deserved break!
Just a few points.
1. Third countries cannot just join the single market. They can only do so by becoming member of EFTA or EU. EFTA membership would most likely be vetoed by Norway since it would shift the balance towards the UK. EU membership is even less possible, even if the UK applied for membership today. Over the past decades it has become obvious that the UK just wanted to be part of the economic side and keep out of further political integration. Political integration however is stated as one of the means for maintaining peace in Europe in the treaty of Rome from 1957, something the UK signed up to in 1973 when they became a member of the EEC. Since the UK left the EU works much better and smoother and given how the UK behaved during the Brexit process it is very unlikely that the EU wants the UK back. All this talk about open doors etc. is just polite and diplomatic speak but it doesn't mean that there is a short cut for the UK to join the EU. That will take decades.
2. France and Germany have the largest populations and the biggest economies in the EU. It is therefore logical that they have huge influence in the EU. But this is a matter of the EU, not America and even less for the UK.
3. There are two types of leading positions in NATO. One is the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, the military head of NATO. The other one is the Secretary General which is the civil head of NATO. This latter position is the one Ursula von der Leyen is suppossed to take over. It is usual to fill that role with a politician, not a military expert. If they were looking for a military expert for thqat role Wallace would have been the obvious choice but it is a political role. I didn't like von der Leyens performance as German minister of defence but I have to admit that she did a good job in keeping EU member states on board for the common goals and projects. That's what got her into the spotlight for the position as NATO secretary general.
@@Harry-tb8yo 1) true no ways currently exist but France has proposed a sort of “EU Plus” for peripheral states and non-members.
2) nobody takes issue with that, the issue is about the political leadership within said countries, as well as those whom they send to lead the EU.
3) Ben Wallace is a veteran but he is a politician not a staff officer, he is perfectly qualified to be Sec Gen of NATO, he simply doesn’t have the international business and political connections that Ursula does. The appointment of a post-history dove rather than a realpolitik hawk, during a crisis like this, would be a massive signal to Russia (and more importantly the CCP) of lack of resolve.
@@TheLocalLt 1) The UK wouldn't get access to the EU or the single market by that. It has nothing to do with the EU itself and would also not be a back door entry into it for the UK.
2) If nobody takes issue with that why do you mention some people being wary of France and Germany?
3) Russias / Putins fingerprints are all over Brexit. He thought it would weaken the EU and lead to a domino effect with other countries wanting to leave the EU as well. This plan failed because the EU27 acted much more unified and determined. In fact Putin achieved the opposite of what he hoped for. Keep in mind that most of European NATO members are also EU members. Giving that position to someone who is a member of a government acting hostile towards the EU would be weird at best. It simply wouldn't work that way.
@@Harry-tb8yo people are wary of France and Germany, and thus the EU, because they are constantly trying to appease Moscow and Beijing so they can resume making money. They are not willing to fight this new Cold War yet want leadership of NATO? At a time like this the Secretary General needs to be at the very least a hawk on Moscow (maybe someone from EU-member Poland would be a compromise, but you know France and Germany will never allow that), if not a hawk on both Moscow and Beijing.
BREXIT is a complex, horrible and long lasting problem. I am still an EU citizen after 53 years here - but at 67 I am beginning to wonder if Britain will be able to rejoin in anything less than 15-20 years - so I may never see it. I even understand why many EU citizens think Britain will simply NEVER understand what the EU is about - so it should be permanently excluded.
However things may gradually change enough to make it possible. At the moment neither of our rather obsolete main parties are even ready to try. I can only hope this issue changes - or destroys them, so they are forced to accept the change.
What can the EU do, that a true free market can't?
@plunder1956
Read the notices here.
These opinions were much the same before Brexit.
Many people in the EU consider the UK to have a superiority complex and to be entitled brats.
They wish to remind us that we are "little Englanders".
They do not want us in the EU!
From what I have witnessed living in the UK, this idea of a huge swing in opinion is just a dream to make pro-EU voters feel warm and fuzzy inside.
I know nobody who has changed their mind about leaving, but I have seen pro-EU voters change their mind about the EU!
I learn more from this channel than from any news/current affairs program.
Thank you so much! And thanks for all your support. It is incredibly kind. Sorry about not posting any videos the past couple of weeks. I’m actually on a mammoth European road trip. I’m going to put up a message about it all for channel members soon. But I’m really looking forward to getting back into everything in September.
@@JamesKerLindsay all good James. I'll take quality over quantity every time. I'm sure most here would agree.
Enjoy your travels and stay safe 👍
@@PaulMathias1 Thanks! 😀
Exactly. The surveys aren't aren't asking the right question though, are they? The right question is, "would you like to rejoin the EU on the basis of no rebates, no opt-outs, joining Schengen and aspiring the Euro." If this gets a majority, we truly are at a turning point.
And let's wait for a 2/3 majority this time!
I'd have voted for that before. I don't get this childish desire to hang onto sterling.Then I've made use in the past of free movement and worked in France.
The question should be "would you like to rejoin the EU on the basis of the EU committing to mass deportations of non whites or not?"
@@Ikbeneengeit Why? 50% was good enough for the disastrous leave. If leaving required only a simple majority then a simple majority should be good enough to rejoin.
@@rogerphelps9939 Fair point. I would say that because we did a stupid thing before doesn't mean we have to do more stupid things in future. And more importantly, a supermajority would persuade EU states and publics that we're actually serious this time. We aren't getting back in unless they let us, after all.
Hope not, we don't mis them. The EU can move on now. And we don't need the British exeptionalism!
yep, i am happy for the eu and the uk. the uk was never compatable with eu values so best both go their own way.
And hereby lies the problem. I'd love for the UK to rejoin, schengen and euro zone included, but until we rid ourselves of the British nationalism/exceptionalism attitudes, its not really in the EU's interest for us to rejoin
Yea and add Ukraine and Albania to the eu maybe even turkey
@@orcho141 The eu already has Hungary and is even considering adding Ukraine and turkey so i don't think they mind nationalism
@@belstar1128 And that's exactly the reason why the UK won't be welcomed back in the EU for the next 50 years. We have other problematic nations to deal with first.
I think we have to wait another 20 years before British public opinion is predominantly in favour of rejoining EU. You need younger generation to come of age that they can vote and older generation with memories of empire to pass on.
Thanks. I think you are absolutely right. There is a generational aspect to this.
Would Ireland agree and allow UK ?
Why do you think we would want you back?
To put it mildly, the EU is quite content with the way things have worked out, for them, that is. Popular support for the EU is at an all time high, the UK keeps on serving as a prime example for everything that should be avoided, jointly subscribed Covid bonds were issued that HMG would never have agreed to, and the list goes on. Nobody in Brussels seriously believes the UK will be willing and ready to join the EU (the UK is far from meeting the financial criteria for joining, for example) within the next twenty years hence the focus continues to be the Irish situation. Apart from this, Brussels have a sizeable number of topics on their plate that are considerably more important than the problems the UK have created for themselves.
We shall see what HMG will decide on Horizon participation. They had agreed terms on which the UK could join but, unsurprisingly, they once again try to renegotiate the terms they already agreed to. Brussels will have none of it.
It's convenient that you can keep using the abbreviation HMG, but I have to manually change the word in my head when I read it.
Could I just why it's not financially viable for the UK to rejoin? Surely with it being one of the biggest economies it would be a net supplier financially?
@@orcho141 What I wrote was not about joining being financially unviable, but rather the UK not meeting the required economic criteria such as public debt levels.
I disagree with the idea that EU support is at an all time high. We wouldn’t be seeing the resurgence of populist parties like AFD (Germany), BBB (Netherlands) and other parties in the polls.
They UK never met the 1973 requirements either, but got in on the promise to fix it and then gave the EEC two fingers.
Do you think CANZUK will be a good alternative for brexit?
Thanks. Great question! I’ve wanted to look at this for a while. I’ll try to do something on it.
@@JamesKerLindsay I am not a Brit but I can tell you canzuk is much more better than EU for the UK 🇬🇧
Thanks for a summary of Britian's EU relationship.
The UK is too large to be a country like Singapore, or even Switzerland. It’s too small to be a self contained empire - like the USA, Brazil, India, or China.
So its not going to be ‘global Britain’….more like a peripheral country like Morocco….
Aye, whatever.
Britain has never been a self contain empire it has always been global.
Can't have shi* in a rules based world order.
It seems that the people outside of the UK see it and understand it way clearer than the people inside the UK do.
@@johannagarda which people?
The only way the 'UK' will be able to join is by as individual sovereign countries, I'm pretty sure with the amount of trouble the UK brought planning Brexit and upon leaving has made the EU really hesitant to even consider it, when Scotland leaves the UK and rejoins EU, Northern Ireland reunites with the Republic and becomes a de facto member pretty sure Wales will follow its Celtic brothers and we can all watch as the empire crumbles.
Dream on. Long live Gibraltar and catalan independence
"When Scotland leaves the UK" he says as the SNP crumbles because they're a corrupt money laundering organisation. The word "empire" means nothing coming from a dago.
I highly doubt Scotland is actually going to leave the UK soon. A referendum taking place within the next few governments is doubtful and while independence is leading in polls by a little right now, it's hardly an overwhelming lead. It's also not clear how important the issue is overall. There are probably a lot of Scots who lean towards independence but would place it low on the list of policy priorities. Issues like the NHS and inflation seem to garner more interest. I doubt a majority see another vote as a pressing matter.
Same for Northern Ireland - there is still a large majority there in favour of staying in the UK. Not only virtually all protestants, but a majority of catholics and irreligious people as well. There just isn't an impetus there for reunification and probably won't be for decades if ever. And as for Wales, the independence movement is very small. An overwhelming majority support the UK. Something like 80-90% and that's an enormous mountain to climb for any Welsh nationalist movement.
The union might not be invincible, but it's pretty robust. It will take a lot of change or a lot of time for it to fall apart. For the foreseeable future I expect it to soldier on. And that's probably for the best - we've already seen from Brexit just how damaging these divisive moments can be.
@@someguy3766 While I'd say you have a point about Scotland what you say about NI is simply not true.
The split between Unionists and Nationalists in NI has been narrowing for decades, and by now the demographics are almost evenly split. According to demographic analysis the Nationalists will outnumber the Unionists in 2026. And yes, unfortunately the topic of UK membership is still a highly divisive issue between these two groups.
Most Catholics are in support of joining Ireland btw., only a tiny fraction of them support to remain in the UK. The irreligious people - well their position on the question depends on their origin. If their parents are Catholics they usually support reunification, if their parents are Protestants they support the UK. Increasing numbers of Protestants are in support of practical solutions btw, even if that means reunification. That's why the Alliance party has seen such an increase in support - they would prefer to remain in the UK and officially support that solution, but are willing to talk about alternatives as well. And the majority of people voting Alliance are protestants and Unionists.
At best the Unionists have a majority even smaller than the Leave majority in the Brexit referendum. It is very, very far away from what you claim.
As for Wales - well the numbers you cite are the pre-referendum numbers. Newer polls show support for welsh independance around 28 % as of 2022. Sure, this is still very far from being a threat to UK membership and has also not changed voting behaviour (so far at least), but it shows a huge increase in welsh people being unhappy with the current political situation. And if the government in Westminster keeps ignoring welsh interests it is absolutely possible that the welsh will hold their own independance referendum eventually.
And just for the giggles: The movement for an independant Cornwall has increased to almost 11 % support and 14 % support an independant London. Wouldn't it be funny if Londoners decide to leave the UK?
@@HH-hd7nd That's just not true. I dunno where you're getting your numbers from; I think you are confusing religious demographics with political ones. Pretty sure the 2026 projection is for a catholic majority, not a nationalist one.
And you're just flat out wrong that a majority of catholics are nationalist - it is certainly true that a majority of nationalists are catholic, but all the polling I've seen shows a slim majority of catholics preferring to stay in the UK. They probably wouldn't use the label 'unionist' for obvious reasons but they prefer the UK for economic reasons.
Also you can't just look at what parties people vote for. Unionism/nationalism is not the main factor for most voters in NI. A lot of people vote SDLP not because they are diehard nationalists, but because the see the DUP as incompetent and want more money for the health service etc.
Don't get me wrong, anything is possible in the future. Even Welsh, Cornish or London independence. But that doesn't mean any of these things is likely. And it's also important to see these things as complex issues, not simplify them to "catholics are nationalist" or "people vote SNP because they want independence". There's a lot of nuance in the data.
Great summary and presentation, very lucid, compelling, concise.
I live in Ireland but was born in the UK and voted to join the EEC, had I still been in the UK I would have voted remain. I agree it was a terrible mistake, and I agree with your analysis, and re- joining the single market would make sense, but I'm not sure about the need to join Schengen? I say this because The UK and Ireland are Island nations and have no land borders (apart from NI) with mainland EU. If I want to fly to France I need a passport. Although Ireland was (apparently) more open to joining Schengen but opted out when the UK did to preserve the Common Travel Area.
Thanks so much. I agree that it has been a terrible mistake. Although sadly, as you’ll see from many of the comments, that it’s a mistake that many still refuse (or are unable) to acknowledge. All very depressing. Personally, I’d like to see the U.K. return with the euro and Schengen. Formally, both are required for membership now. But there is some latitude on when they are adopted.
AS Barnier has said " the EU is already no longer the EU the UK left" The EU is in constant evolution. Who knows what the entrance criteria will be if anf whem the UK applies? The EU has learned to live without the UK and appears to be content with the TCA as it currently stands. In a couple of years it is up for review not renegotiation. Any decision that the EU makes regarding any closer relationship with the UK has to be tangibly in the EU's, i.e. its current members interests and since all 27 have a veto it would only require one of them to decide it was not in their interest to scupper the whole thing.
@@BocaoZ True, but it can be.
The EU unlike the UK is not in the habit of self harm.
@@BocaoZ Change is a necessity, if it were not for change the human race would not have left the trees in Africa.
@@BocaoZ The word was "evolving" not just changing. There is a difference.
@@maxharbig1167taking on Ukraine will cause enormous changes to the EU. The CAP will have to be either shut down or changed extremely radically. And surely the decision making process will need to change as well. The centre of gravity of the EU is currently Berlin. But it's moving south and east at a rate of knots. Might be Warsaw in 5 years.
i like England, but i don;t want them inside the Union...
They are so close to Washington over global and regional issues that sounds not so good.
Also, the European countries desire to forge closer relations, the English don't.
As an English person, I can summarise people who voted for Brexit as easily impressionable and generally politically illiterate. I was too young to vote but I remember at the time nobody really knew what to vote for, and voted leave as the anti-EU rhetoric from the likes of Boris Johnson and his cronies was loudest. Then along with the insufferable geriatrics who think the UK is still a globe-spanning empire it was inevitable. Every young person is very bitter about Brexit, it was a massive stab in the back to us. Most people who voted leave regret it now, but that doesn't change anything. :(
Quite right. Hope you'd accept Scotland. We have always been outward looking and voted to remain. However there is no true democracy in the UK, as the massive English population enables England to outvote the Celtic nations and always get what it wants.
For the UK, the EU was entirely transactional. The bigger political picture of greater European integration and as a result , European peace after two disastrous world wars was lost on the UK public, press and politicians. If the UK ever decides to reapply, they will need to emrace the bigger picture not just the trade.
Rubbish, NATO not the EU, are you just making stuff up or trying to re write history?
@danielwatson3273 The origin of today's EU was the European Coal and Steel Community. back in the 50s. The goal was peace through trade between the rival powers of Germany and France. The idea was, if countries are trading partners and reliant on one another in key industries ( i.e. coal and steel were both critical to Fra and Ger) then the chances of going to war again are reduced. This concept has proven itself. NATO was founded in 1949 specifically to address the growing military threat of the Soviets. That's the actual history.
@@bikeman9899 Spare me, maybe the aftermath of two world wars had something to do with it, NATO kept peace in Europe NOT the EU which did nothing in Yugoslavia and is actively promoting war in Europe as we speak, the EU are also some of the biggest arms dealers in the world, all the EU are interested in doing is centralising power, it's a racket and the idea that that UK wants to rejoin the EU is just a left wing pipe dream
@@bikeman9899 Without the military framework and stability provided by NATO, there would be no ECSC and ECC. You cannot have free trade without a security system in place to safeguard it. So the idea that EU actually brought peace to Europe is a fallacy. NATO did it.
@Kalimdor199Menegroth I'm not downplaying the role of NATO. However, NATO is collective defense against an external threat, the Soviets and now of course, the successor RF. The idea behind the ECSC in the 50s was peace through trade, within Europe, not outside, which was/is NATOs domain. And yes, the external snd collective defense provided by NATO has been a key element allowing Europe to prosper since the 50s. The origin story of the ECSC is lost on many ppl, but is central to the story of the EEC, EC and finally, the current EU.
It is difficult for me to understand how one can stay a "little island" that hasn't got that much to offer anymore in todays world. Great history and proud memories are the past and will never come back
The UK should go, the least, to the back of the queue.
Yes just right outside and sorry were closed! 😂😂😂😂 I would fecking take Korea or Japan before I take the UK back 🤣🤣🤣🤣
@@GCS88 hate to break it to you but japan is a bit too far away to join the EU
Suits me , let’s re visit it in a hundred years
What makes you think the EU wants you back?
I don’t. That was my point. The EU would want to be sure that the U.K. doesn’t try to Leave again. But also many have said that it would be welcome back, under the right conditions.
@@JamesKerLindsay
'Many' ..... Who? When? Anybody of any relevance?
ICYMI: it's not 'the EU' that decides, it's the 27 national parliaments and in some countries the electorate via a referendum.
On a side note: meeting the CC is a conditio sine qua non - at present, the UK barely meets 50%. See you maybe in the 2070s, should you have done your homework by then.
Greetings from the EU27🇪🇺
I find it odd that this time there was no "Britain is situated here and there with to the north, south, east and west neighbour x and y". I understand James is from Britain, but it does seem odd compared to the other videos.
The UK does not appear very self aware and why on earth would the EU take them back?
The UK has vacillated over being part of Europe for fifty years, unwilling completely to give up its "Splendid Isolation".
Having danced the "on again, off again" jig for half a century, the UK has to fish or cut bait, if the crumbling EU will even consider a new application.
because it's the second biggest economy in Europe, was critical in making the EU as we know and the fact fucking people like Barnier, Juncker and Michel have said they would like the UK to join back
There is a deep, underlying issue about rejoining that I have been thinking about. You mentioned de Gaulle. The reason he vetoed Britain joining the European Community twice is because he thought that UK is ultimately committed to their US relationship over the European project. This of course is true. The Republicans and other US foreign policy elites have often lamented the Brexit, because US policy towards Europe is ultimately one of divide and conquer. UK was supposed to pull the whole thing apart. And to be fair, UK was always the voice of dissent when it came to further integration. Poland was always a close ally in this, back in the day.
So if UK really wants to rejoin, there would have to be a committed public debate on what the EU is and what the UK wants from it. It is becoming increasingly clear that the EU is taking on more of a security role, in response to the Ukraine War. Yet the British seem to be utterly committed to the Special Relationship, such as it is today. Sunak was even supporting that NATO expands to Asia, which is utter insanity. And of course British politicians seem militarily committed to fight China, which goes even further into insanity.
So it is fundamentally a question about identity and strategy. I would prefer that UK decides upon an European strategy, in defence as well. USA is much too reckless and unpredictable as a partner and that has not changed much during Biden. I also detect a hint of disdain from the American, vis-a-vis the UK. Antony Blinken called Brexit a massive disaster for US interest in Europe and you could even argue that Britain has lost their value as a key US ally, by not pulling EU apart but rather by leaving it.
Actually the official reason the French gave was that Britain was in such a dire economic position and that it had to improve its economy before being accepted. Hypocritical given that France hadn’t paid a penny on British loans since 1931, and still hasn’t, with a debt that now over a trillion.
USA is not that interested in "pulling EU apart". EU and USA although not having a FTA have very extensive traderelations. The European Union and the United States have the largest bilateral trade and investment relationship and enjoy the most integrated economic relationship in the world. Although overtaken by China in 2020 as the largest trading partner specifically for goods, when services and investment are taken into account, the US remains the EU’s largest trading partner by far.
The transatlantic relationship is a key artery of the world economy. Either the EU or the US is the largest trade and investment partner of almost every other country in the global economy. Taken together, the economies of both territories account for one third of global trade in goods and services and close to one third of world GDP in terms of purchasing power.
Bilateral trade and investment support millions of jobs in the EU and the US. Around 9.4 million people are directly employed. Indirectly, as many as 16 million jobs on both sides of the Atlantic are supported.
The EU-US trade and investment relationship remains strong despite the economic challenges related to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Transatlantic trade reached an all-time high of 1.2 trillion euro in 2021, surpassing pre-pandemic levels by more than 10%.
The United States remains the EU’s number one trading partner in services. Bilateral trade in services reached a record in 2021 and accounted for more than 500 billion euro.
The size of trade in services and goods between the EU and the US is matched by their mutual investments, which are the biggest in the world and which are a substantial driver of the transatlantic relationship.
Total US investment in the EU is four times higher than in the Asia-Pacific region. EU foreign direct investment in the US is around 10 times the amount of EU investment in India and China together.
Total investment includes foreign direct investment, where the EU and the US are each other’s biggest sources. In 2020, the EU registered €2.1 trillion in outward stock, and €2.3 trillion in inward stock.
The transatlantic relationship is a key feature of the overall global economy and trade flows. For most countries, either the EU or the US is one of the largest trade and investment partner.
@@seanlander9321 The official reason doesn't matter. What was said in the video is true, the UK wasn't committed, that's why it wasn't already part of the EEC. Added to that, France was the big dog in the union and wanted to stay it.
Why is NATO expanding to Asia an insane idea? Is it because you don’t want to pay for the security the US has provided you? An alliance is just that, you get out of it what you put into it. Most of NATO has been riding on the US security coattails. If the EU views itself as a world power then it better start accepting the responsibility of a world power.
As an American I would like to see NATO expand world wide where all liberal Western democracies defend all other liberal Western democracies. Stop giving these authoritarians easy target to invade and oppress.
@@trident6547 USA is not that interested in "pulling EU apart".
True, as long as the EU follows orders from Washington. But genuine EU sovereignty is intolerable to the US. Were the EU to drift economically towards counties like, say, Russia or China, that would be unacceptable and a reason to f*** up the EU. US undersecretary of state Vicky Nuland actually literally said that: F- the EU. The blowing up of the Nord Stream was both a sabotage of German-Russian partnership and a warning sign to everyone in US orbit that they will do anything to prevent US interests being harmed in the slightest.
The UK used to be a Trojan horse, a potential tool to achieve disunity in the EU, but now that the UK left is is no longer useful as such. So now NATO is the tool to keep the EU in line, and so far it works wonderfully. Problem for the EU is that US' interests are not EU's interests (they are even opposite in many ways) and EU leaders have already proven to not want to go against the will of Washington, whatever the EU population thinks (Annalena Baerbock: "I don't care what the population of Germany thinks"). Whatever will happen in Ukraine, or Taiwan, in every scenario the EU will be at the receiving end simply because the EU is not allowed to conduct foreign policy according to its own interests.
So despite the current problems that the UK has because of Brexit, in the long term it may turn out to be a blessing in disguise. The UK should not try to rejoin but try to make lemonade out of the lemons that it has.
7:38 our GDP continued to rise after the 2016 referendum, the downturn came at the same time as every other country, with covid.
since the pandemic though we had a slightly slower start but are now ahead of the majority of EU nations for GDP growth.
we're forecast GDP growth higher than just about any EU country next year,
and these figures came before the news of our glorious deal with the indo-pacific bloc, which could be HUGE.
the economic future of the UK is bright and that is what we voted for, to get our independence and stand on the global stage,
not just another cashcow under the thumb of brussels.
Haha! You almost had me. Sadly, we both know we have become less independent. And our standing is far lower on the international stage.
Rejoining will mean we need to accept QMV, the Euro and no opt out. It won’t happen!
Why is this a problem? 27 other countries can live with this. Why can’t we? The euro in fact offers all sorts of advantages, especially as the pound has weakened. Really, I just don’t understand this irrational opposition to working with European partners. I’ve just been doing a 2000 mile trip through Europe. Every other country retains its distinct identity. But they can cooperate on matters of mutual interest. I just don’t understand why sone (increasingly fewer) just don’t seem to be able to take this on board.
@@JamesKerLindsay my MPs can propose legislation on my behalf, that can then vote on it and after the House of Lords pass it into law. Also they can repeal laws. Can MEPs do the same?
@martindunn4470 No. MEPs can’t. And you wouldn’t want them to. The EU is not a state. It is a political community of sovereign states. Power is balanced between the democratically elected governments of those states and the directly elected members of the parliament. If parliamentarians had that right to propose laws it would take power from the members and lead to complaints that it was leading to the creation of a superstate. Equally, if the power was in the hands of the members, you would complain is isn’t democratic enough. The way around this is to allow the commission to make the proposals and the Parliament and Council to decide on whether and how to pass them. But more to the point the Commissioners are proposed by the members and confirmed by Parliament. This was always lost on Brexiters. They presented a simplistic view of the EU and how it works. It is very democratic. More so than Britain. (Unelected head of state, House of Lords, etc.) But Leavers just didn’t want to bother to understand why it was structured the way it was and was in fact designed to carefully balance democracy and state sovereignty.
The Euro has destroyed southern Europe. It's a suicide note.
Regarding the EU taking the UK back; besides Schengen & the Euro as non-negotiable requirements, the Spanish are going to demand Gibraltar back, to the top of the list. Reining in the financial shenanigans of The City would also be a prerequisite.
No they won't what basis do you have for that outlandish and random claim... You think the rest of the EU will allow that lmao
@@Mmjk_12 The Spanish can veto the UK at the European Council (accession there must be unanimous + a corresponding vote in each nation's parliaments) until the former get what they want. What' the rest of the EU' wants is immaterial at that stage.
I highly doubt that Spain would use the Gibraltar issue as a bargaining chip for letting the UK rejoin. Considering the UK's official policy - that Gibraltar's status can only be determined by a local referendum - the Spanish government know it would be impossible for Britain to give it up even if it didn't care about the territory, because the people there aren't going to endorse such a move. Creating such an obvious and immovable obstacle for Britain would only infuriate the governments of other EU member states who want the UK back in for the economic and geopolitical advantages it can offer.
No one is going to be happy with Spain throwing a wrench in the works over a rock.
@@someguy3766 Hungary & Poland regularly infuriate their EU compatriots and get away with it. In fact, don't be surprised if the likes of the PP & Vox campaign on that if the opportunity arises.
@@someguy3766 I think you are correct. The only way I could see it happening if a party like Vox or similar far right nationalist party were in a powerful position in government.
The best thing to happen to the EU Britain 🇬🇧 leaving, prior to that it was on shaky ground, seeing what's happened to the UK 🇬🇧 has made the EU stronger.
ITALY WANTS TO LEAVE AS WELL 🇮🇹
@@Jackie-ji2sj no.
@@Jackie-ji2sj You heard wrong.
@@Jackie-ji2sj no it doesn't lol
@@Jackie-ji2sj Dove hai sentito quello?
Great summary. Really well presented.
Hello Professor, you make some of the best videos on world politics! It would be great if you could make a video about Bangladesh, a country in South Asia, sandwiched between India and Myanmar. We have a very important general election in 5 months and officials from the USA have been swarming our capital city. USA has already cancelled visas, put sanctions on many members of the ruling party and administration here in an effort to make sure that the government allows a fair election, since the same party has been in power for 14 years now with extremely shady elections.
I'm sure you're already aware of how strategically important Bangladesh is in India and China's fight for regional supremacy. I'm just curious how much our little country has drawn attention and a video on our upcoming general election would be highly appreciated! I know this might not be as exciting or big as Brexit or the Russo-Ukrainian war, but I do think this is another crucial battleground that many international politics commentators and channels are missing out on.
I hope you have a great day Professor!
The Euro Zone economy is the one in recession, not the UK. The Euro fell below 1 USD at one stage last year. The UK has issues, and the EU has far bigger issues.
Nah
@@nicks4934 very detailed response 🤡
@@nicks4934 no he's right, and the problem is worse once you realize the euro is held up only by germany's shrinking tax base
You can expect one or two EU countries to veto the British rejoining. The UK has been part of continental Europe since 1994 when the tunnel was finished. Unfortunately, British attitudes have lagged behind the reality.
The Spanish will demand Gibraltar back, before they agree to the U.K. rejoining the EU.
A quels pays pensez-vous ? Je n'en vois aucun. L'Union européenne est une fabrication américaine. La Grande-Bretagne est d'un atlantisme forcené donc je ne vois pas bien quel pays refuserait la réintégration de la Grande-Bretagne dans cette union où l'embauche d'une américaine a un poste important (Fiona Morton) a été évitée de justesse grâce aux pays latins qui ont encore un peu le respect d'eux-mêmes.
L’Espagne bien sûr, qui mettra Gibraltar au menu de chaque discussion.
Thanks. That is certainly a very real danger facing any rejoin effort.
Hello professor!
Could you please make a new video about the new developments around Nagorno Karabakh please?
I would like to see an impartial analysis of what is happening and a prognosis for the future developments.
Thanks!
Cameron was very clever, he first promoted a referendum for Scottish independence and then for Brexit, if he had done it the other way around perhaps Scotland would not belong to the United Kingdom
I think you've answered your own question.
The UK rejoining would:
1. Still be ambivalent about the political aspects of ever closer union.
2. Still be (re)joining for purely economic reasons.
3. Have to rejoin without it's rebate
4. Have to give up the pound and adopt the Euro
5. Have to give up any hope of controlling immigration (again).
I don't think, even among those who could be persuaded to change their minds, the above is worth an extra 4% GDP.
I do. It is actually worth far more than that.
Professor Ker-lindsay can you please do the coup in Niger for next week?
Would probably have to have a lot clearer situation there first!
Good suggestion 😊
I would really love to. But I will be taking a little bit of a break over the next few weeks. I need a bit of a holiday!
@@JamesKerLindsay have a good holiday!
@@JamesKerLindsayare you from UK ?
Well he pretty much argued many good reasons for leaving, in that the UK in general was really only interested in the trade if anything. And yet we know the trend for trade was outside the EU.
He also mentioned that brexit had not matched promises, but then have a timeline that noted that the UK only left in 2020 and transition ( which was the point at which the UK took full control) only ended 2.7 years ago.
He noted that in the 2.7 years the UK had only signed small new deals, but he forgot to say that they had to build a new trade Ministry from scratch, had to take over operations of the flipped trade deals that came from the EU ( some requiring additional work) and they became members of a relatively new and modern trade bloc which is in that part of the world where strategically the economic growth is expected to be highest. This is actually quite a lot to get done in such a short time.
He then gave timelines of rejoining of 7 to 12 years which is between 2.5 to 4.5 times the period since the end of transition.
This is a long time in this fast changing world. Business will have had to adapt to the new way of working, businesses which could only operate in a domestic environment will go and be replace with new businesses focused on the new environment going forward. So the path back will get much, much harder as change is concreted in.
Thanks. But the argument about the trade ministry is a red herring. It’s not about whether the U.K. has the capacity to do deals, but whether any of those deals can come close to replicating, or better, what we had with the EU. It is clear that none can. The economics of trade will always favour closer partners where possible. This has been lost. Importing from half a world away is simply not a viable alternative. Also, the UK economy is a mere fraction of the EU. We go into negotiations with any major actors - China, India, USA, EU - in a far weaker position than if we did as part of the EU. We will never get the protections and negotiation advantages of being part of the bloc on the outside.
@@JamesKerLindsay what if I told you that a university study showed that a farm in NZ could produce, then process and then ship and deliver and sell to a UK market using fewer carbon emissions than sheep meat being produced in the UK. The reason is there are many more components to producing goods than transport distance. Otherwise why are heavily subsidised ( as they were) farmers so concerned with facing competition of unsubsidized, high quality product from Aus and NZ.
Why are so many goods produced in China, Japan, Thailand, Vietnam and others and shipped well everywhere. Initially it might have been cheap labour but over time the volume warranted and allowed for production efficiencies, and robotics to optimise production to delivery.
What if say Europe had a climate issue, or a war and goods supply could not be guaranteed; diversity of source may well be key. Why did Germany and France who got their freedoms on the back of countries big and small traveling across the world to help, at great sacrifice, then decide they were too far away to trade with, and started to build trade barriers against them. Why build trade barriers!!
What if I told you that the UK still fully expected to trade with the EU both supplying and receiving goods, and then future global trade would only need to cover the difference. There are plenty of red tape optimizations that could be implemented. Note that 80% of EU/UK trade was with just 7 EU countries, and 50% with just 3, and the EU enjoyed a healthy surplus and is getting a free ride. There is plenty of room for streamlined trade access. Digital documents, shared databases etc.
What if services trade could move at the speed of light. What if many digital bypass imports and exports and exist as intra company transfers within multinational companies.
And the Ministry of Trade is not a red herring, most diplomats understand that diplomacy includes the widest range of contact areas. Most countries of the world can send their PM or head of state to a meeting and to talk the full range of topics, security, culture, trade. I saw the Head of State of a Pacific nation making this point recently, and it is extremely topical considering what China is doing in the Pacific and the countering by other nations.
Many nations don't have the clout of the bigger nations and or the EU which tend to use power to intimidate smaller nations and that is becoming problematic. E.g. The TPP. the USA threw its weight around and got what it wanted. But then it pulled out and the other 11 smaller nations worked out their collaboration quite quickly. Note that it started from 4 small trade progressive nations. So the old big and powerful is not really a compliment any more. It associates closely to being a bully. The UK's time to be big and powerful went with the Empire but now it is far more collaborative with the Commonwealth.
I think your point of view is historic, a product of last century, maybe last centuries. Of course it will go on for decades however the data shows it is diminishing relative to the rest of the world. The UK has moved early, perhaps too early, but it really was forced into this and it was the absolutely last chance to move. It was a strategic change, and not one that would ever be completed just 2.7 years after transition, after it took back control for freedom of association. I expect the UK to be successful, and increasingly the EU will struggle, as it becomes more constrained by harmonization against new challenges.
It's I bit like the freedom when you leave home, mum doesn't iron your underwear any more, but you have a far more flexible lifestyle. Of course you have to use it well, success is never guaranteed.
What surprises me in all of this is the lack of major backlash against liars like Farage. And he continues his lies.
I completely agree. It’s incredible. Hannan, Mogg, Farage, Gove, and Johnson. All of them. Liars or idiots.
Well it is a bit similar to the Trump syndrome, no ?
The only liars are the left wing common knowledge
The problem is that sovereignty is not a binary property. You cannot have either everything or nothing. Indeed, with Brexit United Kingdom has only gone from, say, 60% sovereignty to 80% sovereignty (It is still bound by international laws and trade agreements, and its actions are constrained by other great powers.) The most important issue of sovereignty should be the right to leave at any time, and that is something that all members of the EU have and will always have.
If sovereignty WERE a binary thing you wouldn't see self-governing indigenous tribes within the USA nor semi autonomous parliaments for various countries (Wales, Scotland etc) inside the UK
And then the UK joined CPTPP: a trade bloc whose rules the UK had no say in, and UK voters had no vote on joining. Sovereignty down the drain, for a whopping 0.08% GDP growth in a decade.
@maartenaalsmeer the main thing is it's a trading block as the eu used to be it doesn't have a parliament a national anthem a flag a president one currency we also don't have to pay billions a year for the privilege
@@whiskers1776 This wasn't about money but about sovereignty. Read back.
@@whiskers1776
The english dream of the EU and its predecesor being "just another trading block" is exactly why the french rejected the UK application twice.
All the things the now "free" english disliked about todays EU where also in the first treaties, back then as aims. But what we have learned , the english are only considereing themselves free when they can ignore any signed treaties unilateraly. Even decades ago world famous for "renegotiating" treaties. At some point in time they started to call treaties "deals" to make breaking them less problematic. But the world is watching and the value of an english signature is falling faster than the Pound.
Johnson indeed was the perfect choice to represent the english.
Dear Professor, I thank you very much for being the best substitute for a stand up comedian. I listen occasionally to your “balanced” (that’s what for you’re admired so much, right?) analysis on various geopolitical topics and it gives me a good comparison between a life on Mars (sorry, I should have said: Academia) and the real world.
To cut through the chase: since when in THIS country (yes yes I mean the beloved UK) so called “public opinion” had any real impact on the core political decisions?? And if anyone in doubt, when was the last time Mr Churchill referred to (supposedly?) his own English compatriots as “our bulldogs”?))
Dear professor, you should know UK problems are well shared by eu counties, that in fact are worse off than the UK. Why don’t you give the fault of having abandoned the commonwealth ? I suggest you to emigrate to Mikonos in Greece, you’ll be happy there in your beloved union and in good company.
Steering well clear of any controversy this week! 😁
Haha! Indeed. As every week. But there’s a lot of very personal things wrapped up in this video.
@@JamesKerLindsay 🎉🎉
Split NI into 3 parts
Return to RoI one by one
Over the span of 21 years
so basically, it's not gonna happen
Thanks your knowledge .I got more information.
Thank you. I’m really glad it was useful.
Thabk you for your hard work professor ❤❤❤!
Europe doesn't want it, and it's not in Europe's best interests. May the UK enjoy its newfound sovereignty alongside its close neighbours in the Pacific!
May the EU enjoy using its own blood and treasure to look after its own defence
I'm waiting for the reaction of French Farmers when they are told the CAP is unsustainable with all the potential new accession countries that are lining up to join. It will be interesting to see the view of the Poles once they become net contributors. This is all going to be very very interesting.
They should oblige the UK to accept shengen and the Euro to see if they are serious.
Mandatory for new members anyway so it proves nothing.
Po co jak za 10 lat strefa euro się rozpadnie
From my perspective as a German I see it like this:
I have always been partial towards the UK, have many friends there and visited countless times. So in my heart of hearts, I would have preferred for the UK to stay within the EU.
However, there are many reasons why even I think that the UK rejoining just WILL NOT happen. Probably ever.
1) The Uk has always been isolationist and has felt like it wasn't part of continental Europe. Many even look down upon continental Europeans. This outlook on Europe has never changed, and especially after Brexit, it probably will only get worse.
2) Even IF there was a slight chance of the UK returning, it would be under full EU-laws and regulations. No more exceptionalism. No British Pound, probably even a change of your traffic system (however long THAT would take). Just because of this point alone, Britain will never be a part of the EU ever again, because I don't see Brits actually willing to change these things.
3) A somewhat weaker point but it has to be said. What does the UK offer the EU? Sure, the EU would be somewhat more powerful with the UK in its fold, but we have learned that we can do without you. We are still strong enough. Not much has changed in our lives.
4) Can we trust the UK? I mean, if it's THAT easy for the UK to leave, with just ONE referendum, it could very well be that every time you think the EU is too much for you, you can just... leave. And when you need money again, you can just rejoin. Not a good basis to start a relationship on. The EU has seen first hand how easily the UK citizens were manipulated.
5) The UK doesn't get the main goal of the EU. Almost every time I hear from the "rejoiners", officially and inofficially, that they would want to get back into the EU, it's always about "how can the EU benefit me?" and other economical reasons. But that's not even close to the full picture of the EU. The Union is an ambitions cultural and political project, designed first and foremost to bring the people of Europe together in peace, to promote cultural exchange, personal freedom and a strong sense of brotherhood and belonging. The UK has no interest in these things.
6) It would set a catastrophic precedent. If the UK were to rejoin the EU, it would signal to other countries that they can just leave and come back at their leisure. Because "if it worked for the UK, why shouldn't also work for us?". This point is unfortunately absolutely out of the UK's control. Even if you conform to the previous points somehow, this fact would be still a considerable threat to EU-cohesion.
So no, I don't think the UK will rejoin the EU ever. If they do, then maybe in 30+ years or so. MAYBE.
Lets hope you are right
In thirteen minutes, you forgot to mention that we cannot just rejoin, but will need an invitation from all eu member states to rejoin their club, and if they decide to take their time, I would not blame them
All countries should leave the EU. It is a pointless organisation that appears to "remedy" problems caused by too much government in the first place.
De Gaulle had the foresight in blocking the UK admission into the EEC. Domestic UK politics and Brexit destabilized the EU for years. People have to assume responsibility of their choices. Brexit was voted yes and it was celebrated at the time. Regretting it now makes way for the following expression: Too little, Too late.
Brit leaving the EU starves it of $40bln a yr guaranteed into its coffers
@@TheMrgoodmannersWell, no. Much of that money is then returned to the UK. But anyway, I don't think anyone in Europe cares anymore. If Britain applied to rejoin you'd hear the laughter all over Europe. Followed by a resounding 'Non'.
@@TheMrgoodmanners The NHS called asking for a share of that money... they are still waiting.... The play "Waiting for Godot" comes to mind.
@@bugsygoo absolutely not. The UK is not Poland or Hungary, it was a net positive contributor to the EU. The UK and Germany are the only two countries that got more into the EU than out of it outside trade.the UK leaving the EU was like texas leaving the US. Each major had a base contributing share to the EU and the UKs base requirement was $40bln. That's not even factoring in the security arrangements in NATO
@@bugsygoo well if the EU is doing so well then explain why southern and eastern Europe in the EU is still the way it is?
Whatever happens, it will be humiliating for the UK. Either it continues to shrivel up like a raisin on Europe's fringes, or it gives up a whole bunch of exceptions and rejoins as an ordinary EU member. Frankly, it serves us right. We had years to overcome our nostalgia for empire. We failed and this is the cost. So be it.
Can you do a vid on the situation going on right now with Niger 🇳🇪?
This such an excellent video. You lay out how big and long the jouney for the UK to join the EU would be.
Personally I think "rejoin" is a misnomer - things will never be back to how they were, as you point out.
Britain won't *re*-join, but it will eventually swallow it's pride and apply to *join* via Article 49, like any other non-EU country.
Before that can happen, English (and I mean English) society has to digest some psychological trauma ...
1) the Empire is long gone, Britain's economy is #6 in the world, it is a big fish in the pond of Europe, but that's all it will ever be now
2) It is nearly 80 years since WW2. With the help of the USSR, the USA and its former Empire - yes the UK was on winning side. Get over it.
Thanks so much. You’re absolutely right. Brexit is a product of English nationalism. As someone truly British (English, Scottish, Welsh and Irish), I’ve always felt that English nationalism is the biggest threat to these islands. But looking ahead I like to think that this whole fiasco might finally push England beyond its imperial past. Let’s hope.
@@JamesKerLindsayEngland is still treating the others countries of theUK as Vassals therefore there is a long way to go before such mentality drastically changes
I hope so too, and I think there truly is hope. Reading my comment again it seems so unnecessarily aggressive at the end. Could have put it better, and not directed personally at you in any case. Sorry.
@@JamesKerLindsay The Irish are not British and never were, different island different culture and heritage but with a very troubled shared history.
@@timor64I thought your comment was accurate but I'm not very hopeful. Perhaps the English just don't belong in the EU. They never wanted to be part of the big project and I don't see that changing. As far as the average English person is concerned, Europe is somewhere else.
What I miss in all these speculative discussions is what the UK thinks they can contribute to the EU? Am not talking about economics but more on how the UK can show the EU they are sincere in their wish to join.
Less talk on how joining would benefit UK and more on what you would bring.
That's completely fair, but I think that's the next step of discussion. Really, we should be asking whether we're ready to rejoin, and sadly we are not
@@orcho141 well, that’s exactly my point as ‘ready to rejoin’ should be about more than just economics. These discussions should be in parallel and not sequential.
Brittain never wanted in the EU, they did not wanted the euro, always an other deal, let them be on their own, they wanted that.