For those that play star rail: Yes, everything in this video applies! Their gacha system is identical to Genshin's (apart from the weapon banner for now, since only one weapon is on rate up instead of 2)
That's a lot of math, but there is a shorter version. When planning to get your 5-star, always expect to spend around 160 wishes to do it (counting from the last even 5-star). Yes, the video implies you can get it sooner, but you shouldn't be relying on that. IF you get it sooner, then just consider the remainder a deposit for your future pulls. That way you will make it easier for yourself and less frustrating if you miss an early 5-star.
@@unidentifiedperson3532what that "build pity" is? If that's "using your primos on some random banner, just because you can't hold it", then yes, I say not to do it.
@@unidentifiedperson3532 building pity doesnt even bring any benefits, its just a "strategy" created by people who cant hold theirselves from pulling so they have an excuse to pull on a random banner
my biggest brag in genshin is that whenever I want a 4 star and wish for them specifically I get the banner 5 star more often (i.e I had to spend to get Yanfei and I got Zhongli at 0 - 10 pity with a 50/50 twice)
Lucky you, I lost the 50/50 with 80 pity, and couldn't get Raiden after others 60 wishes. I skipped Navia for her, now she'll be banned from my account forever 😠😅
thank you so much for making this video! after losing my 50 50 to dehya, ive just been so disappointed and desparate to hit pity once again.. but since im an f2p.. the fear of not having enough primogems and time is really concerning edit: im at 40th rebuilt pity rn and hoping to get him at least before 60 😢 edit 2: I GOT KAZUHA AT 74TH PITY YAYYY
I'm on the same situation as you! f2p and trying to rebuild my pity. Are you pulling for Kazuha or Alhaitham? Also I wish you all the luck and hopefully you get him soon!
same here! I pulled for kazuha last week and lost my 50/50 to dehya too! I was at 83 pity... hoping I can clutch this banner! wish the best of luck to you and everyone else who's still pulling!
@@Vidmilooi understand the pity system quite well since i have been playing from release but i was just confused at 0:44 on why 2/3 are featured when it's a 50/50?
@@Sudoxeee its because garantees, he doesnt mean for 1 5 star he means in general for example you have 240 wishes enough to get 3 5 stars. your most likely gonna get 2 event 5 stars from those 240 wishes because if you lose a 50 50 your garanteed an event 5 star.
I really don't think there is really a flat 35% chance. it more like 30%. like soft pity, the pre pity seem to tilt toward early pull (0-30 yield more gold than 40-70). since the math we care about is the average pull, we ain't evaluating the likelihood of them but their weight in the probablility so 35% might be it probabilty weight than how likely you are to get early... that or i am very unluckly because i really don't believe 1/3 pull are early.
@@Sudoxeee because you are gurentee at least 1 feature in 2 gold. that gurentee can be mathethatically expressed as 100%. add that to your 50% chance, the odd is bump up to 2/3 if you pull gold many times. this graph is looking across the probability of many pulls... from my own averages I said this is confirmed. and it deviation is quite small too.
Early pity is a really sore point for me, as someone who constantly hits soft pity I have only gotten 2 earlies and that was a 5050 loss and a skyward blade on standard... meanwhile people around me are getting 5 stars at 4 pity double 5 stars e.t.c, although I do feel grateful for the number of 5050s I win, but a 35% chance of an early is way bigger than I thought!
IN terms of budget in total, yeah that would make a big difference, and i think (no calc done) is that even if the do lose the 50-50 early on and get to pity for the guaranteed, it's more likely better value since they got around 2 5 stars in 80-100 pulls intead of winning but doing it at 77 pulls. accumulatively, it matters - especially when you also use standard characters like mona, jean, and even more so with diluc (when reaching c4 he has a good powerbump) or Keqing. ah let's not discuss a certain C6 of reviving everyone... :)
As someone who has gotten like four earlies two of which were losses (and one was a guaranteed event 5* so it couldn't be a loss), and lost six 50/50s out of eight I can say that... Well. I don't feel very lucky tbh.
I had the first hand experience of a loosing pity from the standard banner. 😂 I thought I had a luck stat when I got Nahida after 20 pulls, so I tried burning my primo with Yoimiya only to get massively disappointed. 😂
4:15 oh so that's why my first 5 stars on genshin and HSR were on 62 pity exactly. Kinda neat to see that the numbers mean something and not just a coincidence
For me, I was saving for a character I didn't have yet. But when Kirara was released with Yoimiya, I wanted to pull for her hoping that I don't get a 5 star. but alas, I ended up pulling Yoimiya twice before I got Kirara. Then in the next banner, I missed my chance to pull for Heizou with whatever primos I had left 🙃 I'm skipping the current banner so that I can save up for Kokomi 🤞🤞
Damn, same. I got Nahida at 20 pity and then pulled her weapon in 4 pulls... tried to go for cloud retainer only for it to be a Qiqi. I'm scrambling for primos at this point
5:09 ''Only 2/3 5* will be those you want* Me, who has gotten 6 5* from the Limited banner, and has lost 5 of those in a row, 4 of them at soft pity. I'm still waiting for a character I like to break the curse.
@@sombraelerizo idk I’m not exactly f2p because Ive spent a little bit on the game but I have also lost 2 50/50s so far. My first ever 5 star pull on a limited banner was Ayakas and I lost the 50/50. I also completely quit the game after that but I did come back recently and got her but then I lost ganyus 50/50 😂.
speaking of unlucky... 3/14 50/50ies won, only twice i had an early. at that point i just kept on thinking there's something wrong with my account... well it is what it is
I absolutely hit soft pity more than 65% of the time. My first time ever beating soft pity was the 1st raiden banner and I've been playing since xiao's release.
Keep in mind that averages do not directly lead to results. It's more likely you start off with unlucky streaks of repeatedly hitting soft pity before you get lucky. In Genshin, this feeling is made even worse, since pity leaves you with less wishes, giving less immediate chances to balance out your rates with better luck. Lucky streaks are probabilistically inevitable, but nothing dictates when exactly they'll occur, other than bad luck pushing them further away. Hopefully your lucky streak comes soon :)
@Vidmiloo I've had some luck for sure but according to pity tracking sites I'm in the bottom half for overall luckiness despite being in the top 2% of wishing lifetime. I think my pity average is around 66?
@@KratosAurionPlays Mine's 57 but I guess i am really lucky because i've gotten multiple five stars in one ten pull. Also in the top 0.4 % of total pulls
I always reserve around 150 fates for a character, and mostly expect a 5-star between 60-70. There were like 2-3 times I had to go to 80+ to get a 5-star in my roughly 1,700 pulls made(limited banner) since the release of the game.
0:15 "But before I can tell you the hidden mechanics... " let me tell you about our sponsor for today's video, Raid Shadow Legends Nordvpn Honey. I was expecting it. I truly was.
A really good video, some people know that, but most people seem to be quite confused about it, also idk why but I never even thought about 4* soft pity
I'm speechless. In the video you say that the average of wishes for a 5 star on the temp banner is 62.5. I actually won 26 5stars (1003 days played, F2P) and my mean average is EXACTLY 62.5 (range: 3, 81; median: 74.5;). Also I got 18 50/50 won over 26 (which makes 70%, pretty far from 50%)
I have a question. I know that this probably won't happen, but I'm curious. What would happen if you reached 5* and 4* pity at the same time? What if you get all the way to 89 wishes without getting a 5*, but the 90th wish would also be your 10th wish since your last 4*? That would mean that both reach pity at the same time and both have a 100% chance of happening when only one can happen. Does the 5* take priority?
So, I didn't talk about this in the video because it's a very fringe possibility, like you said. Think of genshin's probability as 3 bars layered on top of one another, their height representing probability. The bar representing 3 stars always stays at 100%. The bar for 4 star probability lies on top of the three stars, and 5 stars lie on top of 4 stars. Then, genshin picks a random point on the layered bar, and whatever area it lands in will be what rarity the wish is. Basically, 5 stars always have a chance to "override" a 4 star. You can be at 9 4 star pity and still have your next wish contain a 0.6% chance of a 5 star. By this logic, it's possible to get 4 stars on 11+ pity if it gets overridden by a 5 star.
Almost 2 years into the game it happend to me only once - I hit 10 pity on 4star but got 5star insted on 79 pity, then got 4star on very next wish(11 pity). This proofs 5star lottery takes priority over 4star lottery. What is interesting is this seems to "break the system" - I got got another 5star in the same 10-pull at 7 pity - again for the first since I started playing.
@@TheEkscelencja This didn't break the system, you just got lucky with the 2nd 5 star. ive had 4 stars get pushed back 1 pull by a 5 star and had normal luck afterward on two occasions now.
@@Hoodletooh that is actually so good to know! So I am on 47 pity atm, great to know Almost 60 wishes! Fingers crossed I get my beloved Wriothesley in 2 weeks
@@HoodletYeah exactly, I feel like the only time you want to do single pulls is when you are at high pity in weapon banner and you are not planning to pull for weapons again so you don't lose between 1 and 9 wishes
I appreciate your pointing out that characters and weapons can be bought with Starglitter. I think a lot of players don't recognize that by holding onto Starglitter, they can guarantee that they get certain 4 star characters or get Blackcliff weapons which are sometimes the best F2P weapons for dps characters rather than pulling another 7 copies of Thrilling Tales.
Regarding weapons, the blackcliff series rarely outperform other F2P options - and if they do (which is "rarely" for better accuracy than "sometimes"), it's by a margin so small spending the starglitter isn't worth it, unless that allows you to free up a weapon for another character you plan to use simultaneously. It mostly has to do with the passive being pretty meh except against horde of weaker enemies against which it's "okay" - but it still doesn't provide much value because the enemies are squishy anyways. In short, there's a reason theorycrafters advise against spending starglitter on weapons. It's not that they're bad, because they can be good - it's just that they're often outclassed by other options as I said previously. If someone wants to purchase them, that's absolutely fine. But I just wanted to mention that for future readers.
I tend to get the four stars I want maxed out from banners before they get in the shop 😆 I collect all the males, and all of mine are maxed now except Freminet cause he's new, but I bet he'll come out in the shop way after I've already gotten him from other banners.
Awesome video, even though I understood almost nothing lol My take away is that you should not aim for a single 4 star character, and that you should only spend primogems for wishing if you actually want the featured 5 star (unless you are swimming in primos lol)
yea I learned the hard way trying to pull for Kirara. Got an early 5 star, wasted a large pity on Miko, and only got one Kirara with a total of 80 pulls. And just last week I pulled a Kirara from off banner lmao.
@@Vidmiloo hi one question since the probabilities for either banner are the same before soft pity, can we consider the amount of wishes as one big pity system where the probable averages count if you will put in 800+ wishes? Example: I will have 800 wishes. I would like to Pull Elegy, EL, and 5 copies (2 of Raiden, 3 of Nahida). In the best case scenario (winning the 50/50s vs not winning at all) using 75 pity as average and 65 for weapons it would take about 505 pulls, while in the worst case scenario 1140 wishes. Using your probabilistic averages it would be 740 wishes, meaning with 800 wishes I should be able to get everything. Im using the real average for the weapon banner for this calculation, while the 94 wishes for the character one. Can we consider also the weapon banner probabilities as if they were one with the character banner ones? And use the probabilistic average for the weapon banner too? In this case the needed wishes would go down to 658. After all, the basic probability is the same as the character banner until soft pity hits. TLDR lol: do you think 800 wishes can be good enough for a serious attempt?
@@leonardomeloni69 The odds of reaching soft pity on either banner are the same (about 35% of the time), but the baseline odds for the weapon banner are higher, as well as it having a higher expected number of 5 stars obtained with respect to the desired 5 star. The banners have to be looked at separately, especially since the weapon banner is even more prone to variance. About 2 in 3 5 star characters (67%) are the desired rate up. 1 in 2 (~50%) 5 star weapons is the specific desired rate up factoring in epitomized path. Overall, the average for the weapon banner comes out to be approximately 106 per desired 5 star, or 132 assuming you go to soft pity twice. I'd stick to the 132 assumption for the weapon banner generally, especially since you're not going to wish on it nearly as much as on the character banner. That's why it's safer to assume worse than the average here. This means for your scenario, the average wishes comes out to be about 733. Since you're above this average threshold, you have a good shot at getting everything. Even better odds if elegy and engulfing lightning end up on the same weapon banner by some miracle. Wish for the characters first before you go for those weapons though. If you end up wishing too much on the weapon banner early on, you might miss out on one of your constellations. TLDR: It's about enough, but don't start with the weapon banner.
@@Vidmiloo thank you so much! The issue is Venti and Elegy are probably coming in 4.1 according to speculations lol So İ have no choice but to pull elegy there Then Raiden in 4.3 and Nahida in 4.4 Or maybe İ have to choose what to sacrifice between C2 Nahida, C3 Raiden or EL/Elegy The fact is for Raiden Hypercarry İ dont have any 674 atk weapon, Bennett is on Skyward blade and Sara on Sac bow for now. Since the Harp is on the standard banner İ thought about pulling Elegy for her, and a part of me is hoping to get some more 5 star weapons of the standard banner, ideally aquila favonia or harp By chance do you know the damage increase of Elegy vs Sacrificial Bow? İm just trying to make 2 super strong teams to always 36 star the abyss so İ can pull just on characters İ like with all the primogems İ can get
This is such a well-made and interesting video! I still almost couldn't bring myself to finish it when I heard the expected number for when you get a 5* LMAO (While I kinda dropped it this year, I played Genshin almost since launch and I got a total of ONE (1) character before 80-something. I also only ever won two 50/50s so I guess my luck being terrible is now mathematically proven lmaoo)
By the way my little sister started genshin and after reaching adventure rank 7 she pulled after 6wishes alhaitam came popping .AR7 .....i got Mona at 78 pulls at kazuha banner and at ar 46....
Wow so detailed I loved it I spend alot and have 4 c6 and I can confirm this to be correct but only you did a lot of pull it average to be this getting early is very unlikely. I did about 3800 character pulls
This is not the whole story, it´s commonly proved among genshin community that the algorithms are tweaked to favor players who play less time and disadvantage those who play a lot, that means, players who play a lot of time have less chances to win "50/50" and they have to pull more times, this is because Hoyovers wants players to keep on wishing and playing the game
I researched this and found no empirical evidence for it. The most someone investigated genshin tweaking odds for newer players only used a sample size of 40 players, so the results are not definitive proof of anything. Yes, the longer someone plays, the more likely it is that they lose multiple 50/50s in a row, but it is also more likely they win more 50/50s in a row. Some players will deviate from the average more than others, but this doesn't mean the baseline odds are changing.
I remember when me and my sister were playing Genshin together, and we agreed that we roll 10 times on standard and 10 on limited, and I got Wanderer on the 6th roll.
And here is where HOYO's system feels completely unreasonable considering the majority of characters are unobtainable and even when they do show up, the range at which you get a decent chance at them is far too high. And all for the sake of money.
Great point also it’s quite nefarious because through their character stories in game they make you emotionally resonate with a character and so you will likely wallet up if Lady Luck doesn’t shine on ya! It’s emotionality distorts your senses throw in abysmal rates and you’ve got the recipe for people to fork over weeks worth of groceries for pixels! 🎉
Ooooohh it's a Gaussian distribution isn't it? Very clever exposition!! Please expound on the mathematics and include the formulae too next time if you don't mind 😄 loving the format!!
So much of the math is wrong in this. You said you have a 44% chance to get 2 of the 3 4 stars you want, but that implies that you have a 56% chance to get one of the three 4 starts, the undesirable one. However, “desire” isn’t really something the game can quantify, so already this math is nonsensical. 44% is impossibly low.
The math in this is technically correct, but I did a poor job contextualizing what the numbers imply. 4/9 is the cumulative probability if the player wants 2 of the 3 rate up 4 stars. 2/3 of all 4 stars will be rate up while the remaining 1/3 are not. 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9. If a player was to theoretically wish an infinite number of times aiming for 2 out of the 3 rate up 4 stars, then 44.44% of 4 stars obtained will be something the player wanted. However, because an infinite number of wishes is not possible, this is merely a standard. I don't blame you for misunderstanding, the fault is on me. Desire is not a game quantifier, but it is a descriptor for what is considered a 'success' from wishing, which is context dependent for different accounts. Sometimes, an account may only want one four star character, in which case knowing the average rate of 2/9 can help someone decide if it's worthwhile to wish for 4 stars in bulk or not. Same for knowing the average rates if 2 out of the 3 4 stars, if 2/3 are what the player is aiming for. If you know of any other mathematical errors in the video, I would be happy to either clarify or correct them.
Ah, it's my fault actually. I didn't understand that the statitic was referring to case-by-case pulls. The way it was phrased made me think that if you were to get a 4 star character, and you want 2/3 characters, theres a 44% chance it's a character you would want. What you ACTUALLY meant was if you were to get a 4 star at all, rate up or not, there would be a 44% chance to get 2/3 of the characters.@@Vidmiloo
I don't think it's ever taken me more than 79 wishes to get a five star, and I've gotten more than 20. Earlier than 70 is also extremely rare but it has happened a couple times.
I’m at my 86th wish on ayato’s banner, I got diluc in my 50s wishes (I don’t remember exact number) and got 3 shinobus and 1 kirara, when I’m going to get ayato
I always hit either soft or hard pity with banners , and still lose 50/50s , my first 5 star was diluc at 24 pity (When i started genshin) Then my guaranteed character (Ganyu) Appeared at 74 pity , then lost 50/50 again tryign to get ayato at pity 86 , and got xiao after some months , then i won 50/50 with raiden at 66 pity , then lost it again and got cyno accidentaly at 31 pity , then lost 50/50 again , i pulled for nahida and got her , then lost again a 50/50 , and then got scara at pity 83 , i currently lost 50/50 on eula's banner with 74 pity... And now im still pulling for her , but i wanna get lyney , and i think i can get him :D
now i need to hit the 0.6% since i waited a year to get qiq from Raiden banner freaking again.. with my poop luck i'm not sure if i can so.. Accepting luck donations!11!11
Got Raiden C1 at the start of my account within 40 pulls In Honkai: lost two 50/50, pulled five 5*, each of them only after 75th. My average is literally 77.0 💀💀💀
TwT my pity system is broken, I get a 5 star that I don’t want within 8 pulls, but it takes me over 60 to get the 4-star I want. (Have never gotten the 5 star I actually wanted lol)
Tbh I can't complain... I won my first 50/50 on the Kazuha banner, even though I lost the next one during Childe's banner and only got Qiqi, still that's very lucky, cuz I got the (imo) best character in the game without it being guaranteed (and without even knowing how good he was lol)... My girlfriend told me he was op and so I just pulled for him, I didn't even know my pity cuz I stopped playing for over a year before that, and then I suddenly got him and he became my second favourite character in like two days :)
I am wondering what are the chances to get 2 five stars in one 10 pull?? I see people pulling multiple five stars left and right but I still don't know the chances of this occurring.
The chance of getting 5 stars within 9 or less pulls of one another is approximately 5.27%. This is the most generous chance, since it depends where exactly the first 5 star is within the 10 pull, which means the probability of getting a double 5 star ranges from 0.6% to 5.27% on a given 10 pull with a 5 star in it. Basically, 1 in 20 at best, closer to 1 in 33 on average
@@Vidmiloo Wow 5.27% chance. Thank you soo much for answering my question! I appreciate everything you do and think you went above and beyond in this video. Thanks again!!
If you want a 4 star youll get a 5 star The 2 4 stars i rolled for is sayu (i got 2 yoimiyas before i got sayu) and tthe new cryo guy (i got c1 zhongli)
I am happy my Avarage Pity for 5 star charackter is at 58.46%. I did 1637 WIshes and got 28 5 Star charackters. I am below avarage i am happy ;D. If i plan to get a charackter i always plan to have 140 Wishes. If i plan to get a weapon i plan to have 180 Wishes. I think that is a good starting ground to think for saving up and get sure you get your charackter / Weapon.
These chances are all correct except for me since i have had Sucrose C6 for years but i keep getting her 3/4 times in a row when she is (unfortunately) featured on the banner, which means i only get her...
I think the craziest example of luck I've seen in genshin so far is my sister. She had a rough start losing her 50/50 every time for a while but since then I think she's on a streak of like 8 which is crazy to me. My highest streak is only like 3 I think.
I hope I get blessed too I recently lost 50/50 on Yelan despite farming for her all week 😔 I have been on a 4 streak 50/50 loss on character banner with 0 won
I always get my 5star through hard pity. Only once did i get a 5star within 50 wishes and that is Yoimiya. I didnt even planned to qish for her banner but alas.
I've gotten all my featured 5-stars between 75-84 pity. I currently have 12 5-stars pulled from featured banner, 6 of them were the featured one... I lost my 50/50 6 times in a row, never won a single one.
I have only ever won one 😂 and always get 5 stars after 80 except once and that was 74? Hahaha My sister always has insane luck and has all the five stars she wants and majority have their best in slot weapon. Her artifact rolls are also insanely good. She always yells at me for having weak characters but not even her luck can roll me something good on my account 😂
I'm so sorry for your loss, I thought my life sucked when I lost 5 50/50s in a row. But if it makes things any better (?), I've just now only won my second 50/50 ever.
although i barely win any of my 50/50s (ive only won two and ive been playing since 2.5) ive gotten a pretty good amount of early pity five stars, them being hu tao at 5 pity, tighnari at 53 pity, skyward blade at 37 pity, kazuha at 47 pity and alhaitham at 5 pity, and this by far is my biggest and only genshin flex ☠️☠️
For the past 27 5-stars I haven’t hit early pity 😂 the only one I ever hit early pity was my first one lmao (about 0.001% chance of this mathematically happening)
"...a Pity Five Star as it acts like a safety net to save the unlucky players who failed to hit the 0.6% or 1 in 167 chance of a 5 star." Me... He's talking about me!
It depends on the order. The only time where it's guaranteed to get the one on the banner is if the most recent 5 star is a lost 50/50. As an example, say you lost the 50/50, but got the banner character a few wishes after. Because your most recent 5 star is the one on the banner, your next 5 star is not guaranteed to be on the banner. However, if you got the banner character first, and then lost the 50/50 a few wishes after, your next 5 star is guaranteed to be on the banner, because your most recent 5 star would be the one you lost 50/50 to.
Tell me what was the odd of me getting constellation(c2) for Eula in 2 pulls and her weapon in 1? , Diluc was last 5 star and least weapon was pulled more then 6 months ago was Engulfing Lighting 🤔
Randomly stumbled across this video, just hurts even more when I only got C4 (technically as 5 limited 5*s) in 779 pulls. (At 6:16, excluding starglitter refunds)
If I’m not wrong this is pretty much explaining the difference between median and mean, the mean for 5* is a lot lower than the median, because the data is skewed to the high side
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For those that play star rail: Yes, everything in this video applies! Their gacha system is identical to Genshin's (apart from the weapon banner for now, since only one weapon is on rate up instead of 2)
ok
No it's not, HSR weapon banner is different than Genshin's 👀
@@BugCatLove right, forgot about that! fixed the comment :)
@@Vidmiloo honkai weapon banner also has a guarantee after losing 75/25
@@BugCatLove could say not much, Hsr's wep banner only has one 50/50 while genshin's wep banner has 2 50/50s but true
That's a lot of math, but there is a shorter version. When planning to get your 5-star, always expect to spend around 160 wishes to do it (counting from the last even 5-star). Yes, the video implies you can get it sooner, but you shouldn't be relying on that. IF you get it sooner, then just consider the remainder a deposit for your future pulls. That way you will make it easier for yourself and less frustrating if you miss an early 5-star.
True
bro are you telling to not build pity?
@@unidentifiedperson3532what that "build pity" is? If that's "using your primos on some random banner, just because you can't hold it", then yes, I say not to do it.
@@unidentifiedperson3532 building pity doesnt even bring any benefits, its just a "strategy" created by people who cant hold theirselves from pulling so they have an excuse to pull on a random banner
@@unidentifiedperson3532 “build pity” is just nonsense, it’s not a thing. You ->earn
my biggest brag in genshin is that whenever I want a 4 star and wish for them specifically I get the banner 5 star more often (i.e I had to spend to get Yanfei and I got Zhongli at 0 - 10 pity with a 50/50 twice)
@Vidmiloo your such a nahida's son thanks for teaching this newbies
I pulled for Raiden in the newest rerun and I lost my 50/50 to keqching literally next 10 pull I got Raiden
Lucky you, I lost the 50/50 with 80 pity, and couldn't get Raiden after others 60 wishes. I skipped Navia for her, now she'll be banned from my account forever 😠😅
thank you so much for making this video! after losing my 50 50 to dehya, ive just been so disappointed and desparate to hit pity once again.. but since im an f2p.. the fear of not having enough primogems and time is really concerning
edit: im at 40th rebuilt pity rn and hoping to get him at least before 60 😢
edit 2: I GOT KAZUHA AT 74TH PITY YAYYY
I'm on the same situation as you! f2p and trying to rebuild my pity. Are you pulling for Kazuha or Alhaitham? Also I wish you all the luck and hopefully you get him soon!
@@gobeyondplusultra7 im sorry to hear that. im pulling for kazuha.
thank you mate! you too!! all the best ^^
same here! I pulled for kazuha last week and lost my 50/50 to dehya too! I was at 83 pity... hoping I can clutch this banner! wish the best of luck to you and everyone else who's still pulling!
@@reethelemon i got my baby boi :D GOOD LUCK TO YOU TOO! don't lose hope you can do it! ^^
@@kitty-fx THANKS!!! I'll update if i succeed, or.... fail. HOPEFULLY SUCCEED!!
Hitting pity early in HSR, then going on to do it in Genshin, and even furthermore in HI3. ‘I completed the Hoyoly Trinity’
Bless Seele, Yae, and HoT. Queens 😂
Kneel before durandal!!!
well hi3 is different to begin with, there is no 50/50 wich is such a blessing
This guy is making my mind go blank with the probability..
Im ar 56 f2p and this was so much details my mind can't comprehend it in one go
skill issue
@@OrchidAlloy might be 💀
Good work again Milo.
Detailed while still being easily digestible.
Out of curiosity, how’d you calc the 35% and 65% probabilities?
(1-0.006)^73 = 0.6445
@@Vidmilooi understand the pity system quite well since i have been playing from release but i was just confused at 0:44 on why 2/3 are featured when it's a 50/50?
@@Sudoxeee its because garantees, he doesnt mean for 1 5 star he means in general for example you have 240 wishes enough to get 3 5 stars. your most likely gonna get 2 event 5 stars from those 240 wishes because if you lose a 50 50 your garanteed an event 5 star.
I really don't think there is really a flat 35% chance. it more like 30%. like soft pity, the pre pity seem to tilt toward early pull (0-30 yield more gold than 40-70). since the math we care about is the average pull, we ain't evaluating the likelihood of them but their weight in the probablility so 35% might be it probabilty weight than how likely you are to get early... that or i am very unluckly because i really don't believe 1/3 pull are early.
@@Sudoxeee because you are gurentee at least 1 feature in 2 gold. that gurentee can be mathethatically expressed as 100%. add that to your 50% chance, the odd is bump up to 2/3 if you pull gold many times. this graph is looking across the probability of many pulls... from my own averages I said this is confirmed. and it deviation is quite small too.
Early pity is a really sore point for me, as someone who constantly hits soft pity I have only gotten 2 earlies and that was a 5050 loss and a skyward blade on standard... meanwhile people around me are getting 5 stars at 4 pity double 5 stars e.t.c, although I do feel grateful for the number of 5050s I win, but a 35% chance of an early is way bigger than I thought!
IN terms of budget in total, yeah that would make a big difference, and i think (no calc done) is that even if the do lose the 50-50 early on and get to pity for the guaranteed, it's more likely better value since they got around 2 5 stars in 80-100 pulls intead of winning but doing it at 77 pulls. accumulatively, it matters - especially when you also use standard characters like mona, jean, and even more so with diluc (when reaching c4 he has a good powerbump) or Keqing. ah let's not discuss a certain C6 of reviving everyone... :)
least u got an early. I never have gotten any
@@dice2030 good luck, hopefully you get one in the future and it's a 5050 win too :)
As someone who has gotten like four earlies two of which were losses (and one was a guaranteed event 5* so it couldn't be a loss), and lost six 50/50s out of eight I can say that... Well. I don't feel very lucky tbh.
@@didizeragod I'm so jealous this has never happened to me before... BUT IT KEEPS HAPPENING TO EVERYONE ELSE.... how....
I had the first hand experience of a loosing pity from the standard banner. 😂 I thought I had a luck stat when I got Nahida after 20 pulls, so I tried burning my primo with Yoimiya only to get massively disappointed. 😂
4:15 oh so that's why my first 5 stars on genshin and HSR were on 62 pity exactly. Kinda neat to see that the numbers mean something and not just a coincidence
For me, I was saving for a character I didn't have yet. But when Kirara was released with Yoimiya, I wanted to pull for her hoping that I don't get a 5 star. but alas, I ended up pulling Yoimiya twice before I got Kirara. Then in the next banner, I missed my chance to pull for Heizou with whatever primos I had left 🙃 I'm skipping the current banner so that I can save up for Kokomi 🤞🤞
@@ZcorcherIt’s fate. Become a yoimiya main. /lh ofc
my first 5 star was dehya on kazuhas banner and i was so confused bc i didnt know 50/50s were a thing
Damn, same. I got Nahida at 20 pity and then pulled her weapon in 4 pulls... tried to go for cloud retainer only for it to be a Qiqi. I'm scrambling for primos at this point
For next video, I recommend damage calculation or artifact probability calculation
Apparently there is more than probability for artifact rolls
I would say its slightly rigged coz def main stat is more common and 2/3 of the time its the set I don’t want
5:09 ''Only 2/3 5* will be those you want*
Me, who has gotten 6 5* from the Limited banner, and has lost 5 of those in a row, 4 of them at soft pity.
I'm still waiting for a character I like to break the curse.
If you have lost 5 50/50s then you still have at least 4 5 stars you actually wanted so.
@ssspike1 Yeah, but it takes a huge toll on your primogems supply, specially as a fully F2P player.
atleast you're not alone. Lost every 50/50 since 2.7 which are.. 6? Won my first 50/50 again after ages on baizuhs banner 💀
@@sombraelerizo idk I’m not exactly f2p because Ive spent a little bit on the game but I have also lost 2 50/50s so far. My first ever 5 star pull on a limited banner was Ayakas and I lost the 50/50. I also completely quit the game after that but I did come back recently and got her but then I lost ganyus 50/50 😂.
speaking of unlucky... 3/14 50/50ies won, only twice i had an early. at that point i just kept on thinking there's something wrong with my account... well it is what it is
I have a friend that never won a single 50/50 and almost every times reaches soft pity 💀
Thats my life xD He should calculate probability of this ever happening
Bruh fr? I thought when you lost your 50/50, the next 50/50 is guaranteed featured character in the banner
@@koji5717 Thats the point ? we lost all of those 50/50 ones, and always hit it on 80/90th pull never early 5*
@@koji5717when you lose your 50/50, your guaranteed is not 50/50 because it’s simply 100%
@@koji5717 It's not a 50/50 if you're guaranteed the banner character
Another day not using cos & sin
I absolutely hit soft pity more than 65% of the time. My first time ever beating soft pity was the 1st raiden banner and I've been playing since xiao's release.
Keep in mind that averages do not directly lead to results. It's more likely you start off with unlucky streaks of repeatedly hitting soft pity before you get lucky. In Genshin, this feeling is made even worse, since pity leaves you with less wishes, giving less immediate chances to balance out your rates with better luck.
Lucky streaks are probabilistically inevitable, but nothing dictates when exactly they'll occur, other than bad luck pushing them further away.
Hopefully your lucky streak comes soon :)
@Vidmiloo I've had some luck for sure but according to pity tracking sites I'm in the bottom half for overall luckiness despite being in the top 2% of wishing lifetime. I think my pity average is around 66?
@@KratosAurionPlaysMy average pity is 81. you are lucky.
I got eula since her first banner on 32 pity!!!!
@@KratosAurionPlays Mine's 57 but I guess i am really lucky because i've gotten multiple five stars in one ten pull. Also in the top 0.4 % of total pulls
9 likes and 38 views, thats very good
1055 likes and over 11k views very good
1.2k likes and 14225 views very good
1.4k likes and 19k views. Muy bien
1.5k likes and 20,807 views very good
1.5k likes 20k views very good
35 on average to get a specific four star? Then why has RNGesus forsaken me by having 90+ pulls and still no Kirara?????
Statistics: 35% of your 5 stars come before 75 wishes!
My wishes: lose *seven* 50/50s in a row, all of them between 70 and 80 pity.
The only math I want to learn
I always reserve around 150 fates for a character, and mostly expect a 5-star between 60-70.
There were like 2-3 times I had to go to 80+ to get a 5-star in my roughly 1,700 pulls made(limited banner) since the release of the game.
4 star pity is the worst because there is no true guarantee. I have spent 161 wishes on two different banners to get Layla and I still don't have her
Oh lord...
Sadness… I lost EVERY single 50/50 at over 80 pity
No idea if it is user problem or system problem 😢😂
0:15 "But before I can tell you the hidden mechanics... " let me tell you about our sponsor for today's video, Raid Shadow Legends Nordvpn Honey. I was expecting it. I truly was.
Absolutely amazing video you’re so underrated hope you get the recognition you deserve, here im gonna sub to you 😁
A really good video, some people know that, but most people seem to be quite confused about it, also idk why but I never even thought about 4* soft pity
i realised how little i actually knew about wishing. that was really helpful, thanks!
I'm speechless. In the video you say that the average of wishes for a 5 star on the temp banner is 62.5. I actually won 26 5stars (1003 days played, F2P) and my mean average is EXACTLY 62.5 (range: 3, 81; median: 74.5;). Also I got 18 50/50 won over 26 (which makes 70%, pretty far from 50%)
as a person who has never won any 50/50 and always has gone till soft pity, i feel a bit disappointed to fit so perfectly in the unlucky 65%
I got Chiori at 77th pity and 1 pull...im trying to save for Kazuha, actually. Im grateful for getting Chiori even though i dont want her..
I have a question. I know that this probably won't happen, but I'm curious. What would happen if you reached 5* and 4* pity at the same time? What if you get all the way to 89 wishes without getting a 5*, but the 90th wish would also be your 10th wish since your last 4*? That would mean that both reach pity at the same time and both have a 100% chance of happening when only one can happen. Does the 5* take priority?
So, I didn't talk about this in the video because it's a very fringe possibility, like you said.
Think of genshin's probability as 3 bars layered on top of one another, their height representing probability. The bar representing 3 stars always stays at 100%. The bar for 4 star probability lies on top of the three stars, and 5 stars lie on top of 4 stars. Then, genshin picks a random point on the layered bar, and whatever area it lands in will be what rarity the wish is.
Basically, 5 stars always have a chance to "override" a 4 star. You can be at 9 4 star pity and still have your next wish contain a 0.6% chance of a 5 star. By this logic, it's possible to get 4 stars on 11+ pity if it gets overridden by a 5 star.
@@Vidmiloo I see. Thanks. That's a question I've had for a while.
Almost 2 years into the game it happend to me only once - I hit 10 pity on 4star but got 5star insted on 79 pity, then got 4star on very next wish(11 pity). This proofs 5star lottery takes priority over 4star lottery. What is interesting is this seems to "break the system" - I got got another 5star in the same 10-pull at 7 pity - again for the first since I started playing.
@@TheEkscelencja This didn't break the system, you just got lucky with the 2nd 5 star. ive had 4 stars get pushed back 1 pull by a 5 star and had normal luck afterward on two occasions now.
i had this happen to me, 5* are prioritized, i got the 4* on 11 pity
I pretty much always get my 5* on Soft Pity, so I always plan around that. At 74 Pulls I always do Single Rolls.
Even if you get a 5* on a ten pull, all of the characters pulled after the 5* will still contribute to your next pity byw
@@Hoodletooh that is actually so good to know! So I am on 47 pity atm, great to know
Almost 60 wishes! Fingers crossed I get my beloved Wriothesley in 2 weeks
I used to do that as well, but ever since I got 2 Ayaka in one 10 pull, I never do single pulls again.
@@HoodletYeah exactly, I feel like the only time you want to do single pulls is when you are at high pity in weapon banner and you are not planning to pull for weapons again so you don't lose between 1 and 9 wishes
@@nikyu.106 Weapon pity does carry over after the banner changes. Its just the epitomized path that doesn't.
I appreciate your pointing out that characters and weapons can be bought with Starglitter. I think a lot of players don't recognize that by holding onto Starglitter, they can guarantee that they get certain 4 star characters or get Blackcliff weapons which are sometimes the best F2P weapons for dps characters rather than pulling another 7 copies of Thrilling Tales.
Regarding weapons, the blackcliff series rarely outperform other F2P options - and if they do (which is "rarely" for better accuracy than "sometimes"), it's by a margin so small spending the starglitter isn't worth it, unless that allows you to free up a weapon for another character you plan to use simultaneously. It mostly has to do with the passive being pretty meh except against horde of weaker enemies against which it's "okay" - but it still doesn't provide much value because the enemies are squishy anyways.
In short, there's a reason theorycrafters advise against spending starglitter on weapons. It's not that they're bad, because they can be good - it's just that they're often outclassed by other options as I said previously. If someone wants to purchase them, that's absolutely fine. But I just wanted to mention that for future readers.
I tend to get the four stars I want maxed out from banners before they get in the shop 😆 I collect all the males, and all of mine are maxed now except Freminet cause he's new, but I bet he'll come out in the shop way after I've already gotten him from other banners.
@@_Nyxus_ you shouldn't have to worry. They haven't changed the shop characters since release. XD (I wish they added some new ones honestly)
hey, thrilling tales is pretty good!
@@Pingu2010 the only blackcliff weapon that is good is for the spear who basically only Xiao can use properly
Awesome video, even though I understood almost nothing lol
My take away is that you should not aim for a single 4 star character, and that you should only spend primogems for wishing if you actually want the featured 5 star (unless you are swimming in primos lol)
mhm, that's a good takeaway. Another important one is that you'll get most 5 stars (65% of them) around wish 77 :)
yea I learned the hard way trying to pull for Kirara. Got an early 5 star, wasted a large pity on Miko, and only got one Kirara with a total of 80 pulls. And just last week I pulled a Kirara from off banner lmao.
@@Vidmiloo hi one question
since the probabilities for either banner are the same before soft pity, can we consider the amount of wishes as one big pity system where the probable averages count if you will put in 800+ wishes?
Example: I will have 800 wishes. I would like to Pull Elegy, EL, and 5 copies (2 of Raiden, 3 of Nahida). In the best case scenario (winning the 50/50s vs not winning at all) using 75 pity as average and 65 for weapons it would take about 505 pulls, while in the worst case scenario 1140 wishes.
Using your probabilistic averages it would be 740 wishes, meaning with 800 wishes I should be able to get everything. Im using the real average for the weapon banner for this calculation, while the 94 wishes for the character one.
Can we consider also the weapon banner probabilities as if they were one with the character banner ones? And use the probabilistic average for the weapon banner too? In this case the needed wishes would go down to 658. After all, the basic probability is the same as the character banner until soft pity hits.
TLDR lol: do you think 800 wishes can be good enough for a serious attempt?
@@leonardomeloni69 The odds of reaching soft pity on either banner are the same (about 35% of the time), but the baseline odds for the weapon banner are higher, as well as it having a higher expected number of 5 stars obtained with respect to the desired 5 star. The banners have to be looked at separately, especially since the weapon banner is even more prone to variance.
About 2 in 3 5 star characters (67%) are the desired rate up. 1 in 2 (~50%) 5 star weapons is the specific desired rate up factoring in epitomized path. Overall, the average for the weapon banner comes out to be approximately 106 per desired 5 star, or 132 assuming you go to soft pity twice. I'd stick to the 132 assumption for the weapon banner generally, especially since you're not going to wish on it nearly as much as on the character banner. That's why it's safer to assume worse than the average here.
This means for your scenario, the average wishes comes out to be about 733. Since you're above this average threshold, you have a good shot at getting everything. Even better odds if elegy and engulfing lightning end up on the same weapon banner by some miracle.
Wish for the characters first before you go for those weapons though. If you end up wishing too much on the weapon banner early on, you might miss out on one of your constellations.
TLDR: It's about enough, but don't start with the weapon banner.
@@Vidmiloo thank you so much!
The issue is Venti and Elegy are probably coming in 4.1 according to speculations lol
So İ have no choice but to pull elegy there
Then Raiden in 4.3 and Nahida in 4.4
Or maybe İ have to choose what to sacrifice between C2 Nahida, C3 Raiden or EL/Elegy
The fact is for Raiden Hypercarry İ dont have any 674 atk weapon, Bennett is on Skyward blade and Sara on Sac bow for now.
Since the Harp is on the standard banner İ thought about pulling Elegy for her, and a part of me is hoping to get some more 5 star weapons of the standard banner, ideally aquila favonia or harp
By chance do you know the damage increase of Elegy vs Sacrificial Bow?
İm just trying to make 2 super strong teams to always 36 star the abyss so İ can pull just on characters İ like with all the primogems İ can get
Well well well I'm gonna be one of the early subscribers of this about to BOOM channel 🛐
Arigatou for all the info Senpai 🛐
This is such a well-made and interesting video! I still almost couldn't bring myself to finish it when I heard the expected number for when you get a 5* LMAO (While I kinda dropped it this year, I played Genshin almost since launch and I got a total of ONE (1) character before 80-something. I also only ever won two 50/50s so I guess my luck being terrible is now mathematically proven lmaoo)
By the way my little sister started genshin and after reaching adventure rank 7 she pulled after 6wishes alhaitam came popping .AR7 .....i got Mona at 78 pulls at kazuha banner and at ar 46....
Wow so detailed I loved it I spend alot and have 4 c6 and I can confirm this to be correct but only you did a lot of pull it average to be this getting early is very unlikely. I did about 3800 character pulls
Yes, more or less; the more wishes you do, the closer your rate will be ~94 per limited 5 star character
Sorry i cannot understand (im vibing with the music)
This is not the whole story, it´s commonly proved among genshin community that the algorithms are tweaked to favor players who play less time and disadvantage those who play a lot, that means, players who play a lot of time have less chances to win "50/50" and they have to pull more times, this is because Hoyovers wants players to keep on wishing and playing the game
I researched this and found no empirical evidence for it. The most someone investigated genshin tweaking odds for newer players only used a sample size of 40 players, so the results are not definitive proof of anything.
Yes, the longer someone plays, the more likely it is that they lose multiple 50/50s in a row, but it is also more likely they win more 50/50s in a row. Some players will deviate from the average more than others, but this doesn't mean the baseline odds are changing.
I remember when me and my sister were playing Genshin together, and we agreed that we roll 10 times on standard and 10 on limited, and I got Wanderer on the 6th roll.
And here is where HOYO's system feels completely unreasonable considering the majority of characters are unobtainable and even when they do show up, the range at which you get a decent chance at them is far too high. And all for the sake of money.
Great point also it’s quite nefarious because through their character stories in game they make you emotionally resonate with a character and so you will likely wallet up if Lady Luck doesn’t shine on ya! It’s emotionality distorts your senses throw in abysmal rates and you’ve got the recipe for people to fork over weeks worth of groceries for pixels! 🎉
Ooooohh it's a Gaussian distribution isn't it? Very clever exposition!! Please expound on the mathematics and include the formulae too next time if you don't mind 😄 loving the format!!
bro lost a 50/50 and decided to make a copium video on why he didnt get event banner character
also bro watching a video detailing the wish system likely because of losing 50/50 and not getting an event banner character
note to self:after 80wishes start doing 1wish at a time
and i am pretty sure i only got 5stars out of pity so ye...am unlucky af
Nothing is wrong being blinded by your own belief🙃🙃🙃. I wonder why others get 2 or 3 5 stars in 10 pull.
I got kazuha on my 34th pull😊 I saved up enough for 120 pulls. Now I have enough to try again on a different character
ive saved and used upto 105 and i really hope i get him by 120 or earlier 😭
I have 8 wishes but with a plot twist of being on being 73 pity
So much of the math is wrong in this. You said you have a 44% chance to get 2 of the 3 4 stars you want, but that implies that you have a 56% chance to get one of the three 4 starts, the undesirable one. However, “desire” isn’t really something the game can quantify, so already this math is nonsensical. 44% is impossibly low.
The math in this is technically correct, but I did a poor job contextualizing what the numbers imply. 4/9 is the cumulative probability if the player wants 2 of the 3 rate up 4 stars. 2/3 of all 4 stars will be rate up while the remaining 1/3 are not. 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9. If a player was to theoretically wish an infinite number of times aiming for 2 out of the 3 rate up 4 stars, then 44.44% of 4 stars obtained will be something the player wanted. However, because an infinite number of wishes is not possible, this is merely a standard. I don't blame you for misunderstanding, the fault is on me.
Desire is not a game quantifier, but it is a descriptor for what is considered a 'success' from wishing, which is context dependent for different accounts. Sometimes, an account may only want one four star character, in which case knowing the average rate of 2/9 can help someone decide if it's worthwhile to wish for 4 stars in bulk or not. Same for knowing the average rates if 2 out of the 3 4 stars, if 2/3 are what the player is aiming for.
If you know of any other mathematical errors in the video, I would be happy to either clarify or correct them.
Ah, it's my fault actually. I didn't understand that the statitic was referring to case-by-case pulls. The way it was phrased made me think that if you were to get a 4 star character, and you want 2/3 characters, theres a 44% chance it's a character you would want. What you ACTUALLY meant was if you were to get a 4 star at all, rate up or not, there would be a 44% chance to get 2/3 of the characters.@@Vidmiloo
how is this not more popular tf
so if a f2p is going for a c6 he/she needs atleast 110k primos?
For a good shot at one, yep
77? I always get them on 85th.. And lost EVERY SINGLE 5050 too..
crazy that I get this but I don't get my math lessons
420th subscriber, might as well comment to help a bit with the video's visibility.
its funny how my friend always have early pity
like 30-60
I don't think it's ever taken me more than 79 wishes to get a five star, and I've gotten more than 20. Earlier than 70 is also extremely rare but it has happened a couple times.
im at 79 pity rn and im losing sanity
i just did my 80th wish and i still dont got a five star
I’m at my 86th wish on ayato’s banner, I got diluc in my 50s wishes (I don’t remember exact number) and got 3 shinobus and 1 kirara, when I’m going to get ayato
me when i spend 80 wishes on nahida banner and didnt get a single copy of kuki
Praying that 60 wishes saved will be enough for hu Tao (I also have 20 pity)
Same I’m going for her and Homa 💀
when is she coming again? I lost 50/50 on Yelan to Qiqi and I am saving for her
Hopefully 4.1
well you still have time to save lol
i got Diluc at 89th pull. so i am guaranteed a limited banner character, but in how many wished ?
I always hit either soft or hard pity with banners , and still lose 50/50s , my first 5 star was diluc at 24 pity (When i started genshin) Then my guaranteed character (Ganyu) Appeared at 74 pity , then lost 50/50 again tryign to get ayato at pity 86 , and got xiao after some months , then i won 50/50 with raiden at 66 pity , then lost it again and got cyno accidentaly at 31 pity , then lost 50/50 again , i pulled for nahida and got her , then lost again a 50/50 , and then got scara at pity 83 , i currently lost 50/50 on eula's banner with 74 pity...
And now im still pulling for her , but i wanna get lyney , and i think i can get him :D
now i need to hit the 0.6% since i waited a year to get qiq from Raiden banner freaking again.. with my poop luck i'm not sure if i can so..
Accepting luck donations!11!11
Got Raiden C1 at the start of my account within 40 pulls
In Honkai: lost two 50/50, pulled five 5*, each of them only after 75th. My average is literally 77.0 💀💀💀
Just dicovered this channel. Single best genshin content on youtube. Hope to see more videos
My friend with his god luck as a free to play player: " I have no such weakness"
Seriously he's got 5, 5 star's in 2 month 💀
One you reach 5 star, that probability is halved since its a 50/50 chance to get the one you actually want
Just do 10 wishes and have a four star item that's it...
TwT my pity system is broken, I get a 5 star that I don’t want within 8 pulls, but it takes me over 60 to get the 4-star I want. (Have never gotten the 5 star I actually wanted lol)
nah , it drop back to 0 drop rate when you hit 50/50 and didnt get the limited
trash game GenShit
Now do the same with artifacts drops probabilities and rates
I don't know what's worse, Gacha not actually pitying you, or being mockingly pittied. Well, it's a business *sighs*
Bruh i never hit yearlier than 83 pity and never won 50/50 these are very lucky rates
mfw i pull a 5-star on wriothesly banner at 6 pity but its just mona 🗿.
Tbh I can't complain... I won my first 50/50 on the Kazuha banner, even though I lost the next one during Childe's banner and only got Qiqi, still that's very lucky, cuz I got the (imo) best character in the game without it being guaranteed (and without even knowing how good he was lol)... My girlfriend told me he was op and so I just pulled for him, I didn't even know my pity cuz I stopped playing for over a year before that, and then I suddenly got him and he became my second favourite character in like two days :)
I am wondering what are the chances to get 2 five stars in one 10 pull?? I see people pulling multiple five stars left and right but I still don't know the chances of this occurring.
The chance of getting 5 stars within
9 or less pulls of one another is approximately 5.27%. This is the most generous chance, since it depends where exactly the first 5 star is within the 10 pull, which means the probability of getting a double 5 star ranges from 0.6% to 5.27% on a given 10 pull with a 5 star in it.
Basically, 1 in 20 at best, closer to 1 in 33 on average
@@Vidmiloo Wow 5.27% chance. Thank you soo much for answering my question! I appreciate everything you do and think you went above and beyond in this video. Thanks again!!
I got my 5* on 88th pull and the next 5* got it on 85th pull 💀💀
you deserve a new sub right now. and thats me
If you want a 4 star youll get a 5 star
The 2 4 stars i rolled for is sayu (i got 2 yoimiyas before i got sayu) and tthe new cryo guy (i got c1 zhongli)
I am happy my Avarage Pity for 5 star charackter is at 58.46%.
I did 1637 WIshes and got 28 5 Star charackters.
I am below avarage i am happy ;D.
If i plan to get a charackter i always plan to have 140 Wishes.
If i plan to get a weapon i plan to have 180 Wishes.
I think that is a good starting ground to think for saving up and get sure you get your charackter / Weapon.
These chances are all correct except for me since i have had Sucrose C6 for years but i keep getting her 3/4 times in a row when she is (unfortunately) featured on the banner, which means i only get her...
I think the craziest example of luck I've seen in genshin so far is my sister. She had a rough start losing her 50/50 every time for a while but since then I think she's on a streak of like 8 which is crazy to me. My highest streak is only like 3 I think.
I hope I get blessed too I recently lost 50/50 on Yelan despite farming for her all week 😔 I have been on a 4 streak 50/50 loss on character banner with 0 won
35%? I must be really unlucky then, for the past eight 5 stars that I've gotten are all over 70 pulls and never win a 50/50 once.
~3.2% chance for 8 pity 5 stars in a row, 6.25% for losing 4 50/50s in a row
Thank you for making this video. Very helpful for newer players like me. You deserve more subscribers. Keep up the good work!
I always get my 5star through hard pity. Only once did i get a 5star within 50 wishes and that is Yoimiya. I didnt even planned to qish for her banner but alas.
I've gotten all my featured 5-stars between 75-84 pity.
I currently have 12 5-stars pulled from featured banner, 6 of them were the featured one... I lost my 50/50 6 times in a row, never won a single one.
I have only ever won one 😂 and always get 5 stars after 80 except once and that was 74? Hahaha My sister always has insane luck and has all the five stars she wants and majority have their best in slot weapon. Her artifact rolls are also insanely good. She always yells at me for having weak characters but not even her luck can roll me something good on my account 😂
I'm so sorry for your loss, I thought my life sucked when I lost 5 50/50s in a row. But if it makes things any better (?), I've just now only won my second 50/50 ever.
Ive gone over 80 wishes for all but 3 and lost 50/50 every time except once. Incredible luck on my end. (skill issue)
although i barely win any of my 50/50s (ive only won two and ive been playing since 2.5) ive gotten a pretty good amount of early pity five stars, them being hu tao at 5 pity, tighnari at 53 pity, skyward blade at 37 pity, kazuha at 47 pity and alhaitham at 5 pity, and this by far is my biggest and only genshin flex ☠️☠️
I didn't have confidence in my luck to pull for kazuha even though i have like 50ish pulls at the time. I kinda regretting it now 😅
@@oakenstake4948 awwh its alright man, i do hope ull be able to get him during his next rerun, (which will probably be in another year LMAO)
For the past 27 5-stars I haven’t hit early pity 😂 the only one I ever hit early pity was my first one lmao (about 0.001% chance of this mathematically happening)
I have a question, if a made 10 winshes on the weapon banner on 1.3, are those wishes still there even if my history doesn´t show them anymore ?
Yes, the history is only a visual representation of your pulls. You still have them even when it gets cleared to save server space.
What I expect on wishing after 3 years playing, >75 rolls and lose 50/50
This is my people 😅
I got Mona on soft pity losing my 50-50
Honestly, I think Mona is the only 50/50 loss I'd be sort of happy with.
"...a Pity Five Star as it acts like a safety net to save the unlucky players who failed to hit the 0.6% or 1 in 167 chance of a 5 star."
Me... He's talking about me!
On my account, the first 10 wishes, I got a five star. It was the first thing to appear. I was super lucky.
So when you loose the 50/50 and then get on the same banner another 5 star is it then guaranteed that you get the one on the banner or not ? :)
It depends on the order. The only time where it's guaranteed to get the one on the banner is if the most recent 5 star is a lost 50/50.
As an example, say you lost the 50/50, but got the banner character a few wishes after. Because your most recent 5 star is the one on the banner, your next 5 star is not guaranteed to be on the banner. However, if you got the banner character first, and then lost the 50/50 a few wishes after, your next 5 star is guaranteed to be on the banner, because your most recent 5 star would be the one you lost 50/50 to.
I pulled for kazuha and i reach 90 pull just to get diluc 😭
Tell me what was the odd of me getting constellation(c2) for Eula in 2 pulls and her weapon in 1? , Diluc was last 5 star and least weapon was pulled more then 6 months ago was Engulfing Lighting 🤔
Randomly stumbled across this video, just hurts even more when I only got C4 (technically as 5 limited 5*s) in 779 pulls. (At 6:16, excluding starglitter refunds)
Meanwhile, after 110 pulls, I still don’t have the 4 star I want 🙃
I just checked my average pity it was 82…😢😢
Same 😢
If I’m not wrong this is pretty much explaining the difference between median and mean, the mean for 5* is a lot lower than the median, because the data is skewed to the high side
Finally someone who does it RIGHT!