Forecast Discussion - May 8, 2024 - Widespread, Intense Severe Weather Expected Today
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 22 พ.ค. 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
SPC has upgraded to a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) across portions of Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Tennessee/Kentucky today. Multiple rounds of intense severe storms are expected today in this region with all hazards possible, including large to giant hail, intense damaging straight-line winds, and tornadoes, some of which may be strong. Farther southwest into the ArkLaTex region, a few supercells are expected to develop along the dryline. These should post mostly a large to giant hail and damaging wind risk given extreme instability but limited low-level shear.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
2:42 Current observations
12:03 Model analysis
21:39 Convection-allowing model (CAM) analysis
25:58 Wrap-up - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
Yesterday was no joke for those levels of severity being estimations. We're in central south eastern indy hoping today isn't as bad, but recently moving from Michigan was scary to hear about portage and kalamazoo's strong tornadoes
Good news for you today is that the greatest severe risk should be south of you, but I’d still keep an eye out
It’s interesting that that area was only under a slight risk, if I’m not mistaken (southern Michigan), and still had strong tornadoes - which isn’t typical of a slight risk. Yet the high risk area on Monday basically behaved like a moderate risk. Goes to show that no matter how much we try to predict these events it’s not always what we think it’s gonna be.
im from Saginaw Michigan lived there for 24 years but i Lived in Clarksville Tennessee which had the Tornados of December 9th 2023, along with 2020 Nashville Tn tornado and others and now been living in Russellville Kentucky for 3 years and all of my lifetime of living there i can't remember hearing any tornado warnings maybe a Tornado watch or two i also Lived in Battle Creek Michigan for a year before i moved to Tennessee so im new to strong tornados thanks to Trey this channel and a bunch of other channels on learning how to forecast weather and Radar Omega and Radar scope i kept an eye on the storms coming into Michigan that day since all my family and friends still live there i was able to give them heads up on tornado warnings so I'm really thankful i came across this channel from multiple meteorologist like Ryan hall ya'll, Andy hill, and Even Fryberger for mentioning trey as the Goat, I've learned alot but i still really don't know about Now casting, i understand much more on forecasting the weather outcome but im still very new to (storm Merging) (storms cycling) and watching the Radar and Figuring out when the Storm is more (outflow dominance or Inflow Dominance) and other things like that. would love for trey to cover something like this
@@zal88 Thank you so much! I'm happy to hear the channel has been helpful. I'll have videos on those topics down the road.
Thankyou Trey. The more you tell us about what’s going on, the less anxious I get. Surprised I’m feeling this way today, I’m usually pretty chilled out. Been through what could happen, and then it did. Learned He is with me through storms in life, including those nature brings. Praying for everyone’s saftey. Be aware and alert and watchful folks. God bless everyone!!!🙏🙏🙏♥️
Always love the forecast discussions that you do!
Thank you!
Do I detect a little weariness in your voice? Storm weariness perhaps? Certainly understandable!
I really appreciate the work you put in to these discussions! I feel completely briefed when it's all said and done. 🙂
That said, be sure to take a breather from time to time, even during the busy season.
Thanks again!
Thank you! It’s definitely been an active stretch. Looking forward to a little lull this week before things ramp back up.
Great video Trey thanks for your thoughts on this Trey, everyone in my area is nervous and freaked out by today because of what happened Monday plus spc was talking about expanding the MDT into our area so everyone is weary because of what happened with that Squall line the other night and any storm right now has everyone checking there storms
Sometimes you see a 'loaded gun' setup; this one is more of a bird shot setup, or a spray bottle setup perhaps. A smattering of varied storms spread around a wide area!
I tell ya. This has been a wild night. Almost 12 straight hours of numerous supercells and there's still one out there now at this late hour! Then the flash flooding. You definitely called it about the messy modes. Waves of supercells!
Thanks so much for the update, Trey. I’ll be keeping an eye on things here in St Louis. Stay safe, everybody.
I’m in West Central Ar so thank you CC for covering this!⚡️⚡️⚡️
Thanks for your forcast I live in Russellville Kentucky and work in guthrie Kentucky so far I've had 4 tornado warnings close by but things looked to crap out in my area thus far so as you stating that this storm mode was really messy I don't think things are progressing like the spc presumed but the nights not over and I'm still watching tornado warnings near Springfield Tennessee and further south west down by Nashville
Thank you for everything that you do Trey
Thanks for your coverage! I'm right in that moderate risk zone. Lovely 😅
Be safe today!
Me too, by Paris TN. 😬
Awesome coverage
Thanks very much for these forecast discussions
Yay new video! Thank you!
Thanks Trey! This applies to me directly.
S.E. Tennessee here. Thanks Trey!
I think we'll miss most of it here in Louisville. I was looking at the soundings just now and in central KY, the farther you go east there's a really dry layer at about 850mb. Dewpoints, if I'm reading it correctly, at -10C despite being near 20C at the surface.
As always, I enjoyed your video. Thank you for doing these.
great job, as usual... thanks for the work. a minor suggestion though, when you aren't actively switching tabs in the browser you could make the tab you're talking about fullscreen. this way more (actually all) of the video are is filled with the content you are talking about, and none is wasted with browser UI, etc. depending on how things scale, it could also result in the text labels and such in the content being easier to read.
Thank you. I've tried that, and it doesn't actually make much of a difference. There's also some difficulty when I do that and simultaneously use my writing tablet. Plus, when you zoom in on the CoD model site and try to use the time slider with keyboard arrows, the page sways back and forth and doesn't keep the model image in the center of the screen. TH-cam does allow for zooming in on videos now, so that might help if you're having difficulty viewing the text on a phone or other small device.
@@ConvectiveChronicles Ok. My background in IT support has me wondering, heh, so don't mind my digging in to this more (or feel free to ignore it, i won't be offended)...
So, just to be clear, you tried using just the fullscreen page/tab option in the browser, without any zoom? the browser-based zoom feature can definitely cause issues of odd page behavior and such like you were describing, but the fullscreen option itself shouldn't. I can't speak for the writing tablet though, are you saying it was acting up when using fullscreen without any zoom?
if fullscreen isn't working right and/or doesn't help much, then i would suggest perhaps turning off your favorites bar. aside from having the content take up more of the screen, it takes away some visual noise (from the icons and text of the favorites). Not that i'm trying to say that the favorites bar makes it "unreadable" or such, but IMO removing it would be a small but none-the-less tangible improvement.
@@rphoenix5908you must be very controlling in your relationships
@@rphoenix5908 Yes, I've used the fullscreen option in the browser before without zoom and it seems to make fairly minimal difference. And yes, if I use the writing tablet simultaneously, it starts cutting off some of my writing. Probably a quirk in the tablet/app.
Thank you for what you do! Looking forward to the weather today here in Lake Ozark, MO. I do have a question though: How can you tell the time on the CAM analysis? I see many numbers but can’t quite figure out the estimated time for that model. Thanks!
So at the top right of the model image, you’ll find the Zulu time of each frame as you step through the model.
Thanks as always! One correction, you were saying Champaign/Urbana in IL but I believe you meant to say Carbondale. :)
Thank you...always get those two messed up
Wow!
Damn I'm north of the warm front again unfortunately 😢
I'm worried... My aunt and several friends live in middle Tennessee... Hopefully we will get lucky like we somewhat did the other night
Yeah, I’m hoping storm mode precludes a greater threat
Great video as always. However, I heard a couple times you said Champaign Urbana was in the highest risk for tornadoes. Assuming you mean CU Illinois they are not in any risk area for tornadoes today based on the SPC map maybe you meant a different town when you said that but I was confused lol
Thank you; I meant Carbondale. I seem to always get those two mixed up
I'm in the Paris TN area and I have to admit my anxiety level is quite high.
Have a plan in place and you’ll get through ok
@@ConvectiveChronicles We do, I live next to Paris Landing state park and they just finished building a big beautiful lodge which has a poured concrete area. We've already used t a few times. Thanks for all you do, it's very informative.
@@nadaname391 Thank you! Stay safe!
that outflow boundary could suggest the increased longevity and robustness of supercells and MCS type complexes (kind of shown in HRRR - obviously take with a grain of salt, or sugar if you don't like salt), where we could truely see a long track nature of storms. I would like to just add that obviously with the basis of the tornado emergency yesterday in michigan with that wedge tornado (scary it actually reminded me the shape of the tornado in Mayfield ngl), there will be corridors of overlapping vorticity and high 3CAPE - as Trey discussed a slight cheat code in observations if directed at data correctly), where of course, it occurred along the boundary of the warm front in a 5% region, and being honest, 5% regions this year have overperformed way more than i have ever seen - just to name a few tornadoes in 5% this year - Hollister, westmoreland, yesterdays tornadoes, Hawley, so with caution, we may see some big development wherever mother nature places it. In fact, due to the surface lows proximity (like april 26th), this will create a lot of lower level shear and vorticity, which with 3 to 4000 ML CAPE will get stretched into the vertical for sure, as evident previously in some recent events. Cheers Trey, hope your doing well on this very fine day on planet Earth! @ConvectiveChronicles
Near Lake Eufaula, OK...
Hoping all the rain stays East today. We are truly and well SOAKED. I hope I don't loose some of my garden!!!
Definitely don't want that. I'd be sad all summer. A few years ago I lost 12 tomato plants with a mid-May freeze in Kentucky. Ooof. Maybe you'll just end up with sad-looking stressed plants that are growing huge root systems.
I'd definitely keep an eye out, looks like you might get a severe storm or two in the area. Good news is extended heavy rain doesn't look like a big possibility.
@@ConvectiveChronicles Thanks Trey! I was born with a weather eye out. ;-)
@@mattgriffin8383 Thanks! I've got over 50 tomatoes out between my two gardens. The peppers and beans aren't looking hot either. Ugh.
I've lost many, many plants to freezes. disease, insects, hail, wind...but it's rare to watch them drown.
I am...
@@ConvectiveChronicles Whew...models are showing them pop just...and I mean JUST to the East of me. Like by maybe 20 miles! lol
That's too close to ignore for sure.
I'm in the bullseye 🎯🙏 No basement or shelter. Thank you for your info.
Please have a safety plan ready and a sturdy shelter you can go to if things start to get nasty.
You kept saying Champaign Urbana is in the moderate, but it's up in the slight risk. Did you maybe mean Carbondale?
Yep, sorry
Hoping we in Clarksville don't get hit again. We haven't cleaned up the damage from the December ones yet.
Yeah, hopefully things slide by you today...I'd definitely keep an eye out though
Do you think severe weather will calm after this for a bit, and how do you feel about the Mideast Georgia area for severe weather in the coming days?
There definitely looks to be a lull once this couple-day stretch is over. However, tomorrow and the next day, keep an eye out in your area
I also wonder if the Sioux Falls, SD-Austin, MN-Iowa City-Des Moines area will overperform.
Low-end risk up there for a few marginally severe storms
It is indeed a sauna in DFW. I was out for coffee at like 7:00 am and it was nearly unbearable already. And just think, that ain't shit compared to what's coming in July/August! 🥵
Yeah I'm worried about summer. I already hate it much less after the last few we've had, plus ercot doesn't know how to fix the grid 🙄
Already a tornado warned cell SW of St. Louis.
i just wanted to let you know i just recently found your channel and i CANNOT believe the amount of subs you have with the quality AND quantity of content you create. you explain everything so well that even my boyfriend who has little to no interest in weather can understand what youre talking about. and DONT EVEN GET ME STARTED ON THE CASE STUDY VIDEOS??? ive already watched like 5. UR CHANNEL IS WHAT IVE BEEN LOOKING FOR MY WHOLE LIFE MAN😭😭
Wow, thank you so much for the kind words! That really means a lot!
Well....called it.....I had a feeling the SPC would throw down the MDT and in the end they did.
This looks to be another widespread and significant even again for today. Tell you one thing....we are closing in fast on the #3 all time tornado season.....this is rapidly gaining its pace...remarkable.
good luck all
Felt like a muggy afternoon last night.
Well this certainly verified. Nws couldnt even keep up
Will be interesting if this outperforms Monday in OK and Kansas in terms of tornadoes
It probably will
Could there be a derecho today? This seems like a big damaging wind threat.
It does look to be an extensive squall line, especially after dark, but I’m not sure it’ll meet derecho criteria
@@ConvectiveChroniclesthe distance of it or intensity I’m assuming distance?
@@seanchristopherward8205 Both
NWA possible hot spot? Seems like we have more low level sheer and more perpendicular sheer vectors?
Nvm hrrr just ruined that
Could see a few storms there but most activity will be north and south of there
@@ConvectiveChronicles just saw the tornado risk adjustment. I cooked
Yesterday in ohio was crazy so many tornadoes and possibly several stronger tornadoes
1:13 I believe you meant Carbondale, not Champaign-Urbana 😁
Yeah, I get those two mixed up all the time
That high risk Monday busted like usual, but yesterday over-performed. SPC needs to study parameter space better on days like yesterday to better understand pulling the trigger on high risk upgrades.
The Monday setup clearly warranted a High Risk based on parameter space and expected evolution. We can’t be 100% results oriented with these events; hindsight is 20/20.
@@ConvectiveChronicles I’m not throwing shade on SPC, but there are a LOT of busted high risk days. The public complacency will only keep growing.
@@SIGINT007 Higher risk days = higher chances of underperformance. Forecasting them is a tough prospect
Man, that high risk was kind of a bust, huh? Guess we will see if today can make up for it, but with only 10 percent hatched risk idk
Yeah, definitely underperformed. Thinking storm mode will preclude a bigger event today but we’ll see
One big unit of a supercell in Missouri right now - tor warning and golf cart sized hail. The day is already getting spicy 😆
What? Golf cart sized hail? Am I reading that right??
@peachxtaehyung It was tagged for 2.50" hail. "Golf cart sized" was supposed to be a joke given how big the potential hail size was. Chaser Connor Croff is live streaming and he was / is still on that storm cell. I watched him briefly in my Radar Omega app. The storm is big HP supercell currently tor warned (still) hail size has increased to 2.75" (baseball sized).
@@railfanningpoints2.045 ahhh ok sorry I am not good with sarcasm lol I was about to say I didn't ever think that was a thing I'm dumb
Theyve widened the 10% for tornadoes
Big first ❤
Juicier than OJ’s corpse out there today
paducah used V word.
Honestly not seeing that today given a messy storm mode, but if any semi-discrete supercells can latch to one of the boundaries, we could see a strong tornado threat materialize.
@@ConvectiveChronicles exactly. I think they used that wording yesterday? Seemed a bit off. Regardless, it is 2024 and a 10% hatch, who knows what could happen.