Forecast Discussion - May 21, 2024 - Severe Weather Outbreak Expected across the Midwest
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 มิ.ย. 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
SPC has upgraded to a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) across much of Iowa, southwest Wisconsin, northwest Illinois, and northern Missouri today for a potential severe weather outbreak. Storms will rapidly intensify by midday, moving eastward into a very favorable environment for all severe hazards, including strong/long-track tornadoes, intense damaging winds, and very large hail. Storm mode may quickly transition to more of a squall line, increasing the damaging wind and embedded tornado threat going into the afternoon and evening. Farther southwest along the cold front/dryline, supercells are possible with mostly a large hail and damaging wind risk.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
3:08 Current conditions, observed data
10:51 Model analysis
27:08 Wrap-up - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
You are a legend for getting this out within 35 minutes of the 1300z outlook
Iowa here. Just started typing and our community outdoor sirens are going off. Looks like my area is going to see 70 mph winds........oh boy.....looks like it's going to be a long day here.
@jacobtodd1622, be safe… it’s going to be a very long day…. I’m in Des Moines, no sirens yet, not looking forward to it
Shit, by the Lake Michigan shoreline, it'll be eventful later today! We don't usually see much in the way of big storms due to the lake!
Be safe!
they were going off in Ankeny earlier@@dorothygoodon3610
Praying for you.
I haven't had this much fear for a severe weather threat since March 31st of last year. We could be seeing a tornado outbreak, especially in the eastern half of Iowa, with a potent squall line tonight across the Iowa/Illinois/Wisconsin region.
Yep, definitely
Yeah I am worried especially since they've already been getting tornado warnings
We plan to be in our basement when the storms start to fire up in southern Wisconsin. We are not even going to wait for the tornado warning.
thanks trey! got woken up by the sirens here in eastern NE about three hours ago and had to deal with a flooded basement. hoping people are safe today and anything that develops stays in the open fields!
You and me both. Living on pins and needles here in Iowa.
🌪15H/🌬45H/🌧45H risk makes for a frightening day.
After the last month, I honest hope this busts. Everyone in Iowa and adjacent parts of neighboring states please keep the word out to your contacts today.
Thanks for keeping us informed on every severe weather day! Your work is god tier
Thank you!!
Good luck to the people in the risk area love from the uk 🇬🇧
Great video! Very educational without being overly technical. Great bridge between the "professor" and the "layman", if that makes sense. (Best wishes from Saint Louis Missouri.)
Thank you so much!
Trey saves the day!!!!! Thank you, thank you, thank you! 😂
Edit: Thanx for the sacrifice to get this out in a timely manner! I know you're super busy with the tour group.
He really does, best forecaster on you tube in my opinion
Of course! Always happy to get up early and get a video out, especially on days like these.
If there's ever a Convective Chronicles merch line I want a "Flies in the Ointment" shirt with a big red "no" symbol over the text
I absolutely love these in depth breakdowns of these severe weather setups. Easily becoming one of my favorite weather channels to watch. Great video! 🤝🏼
Thank you so much!
I want to go to the bar with Trey so he can tell me what's on tap and warn me that the drink I have is potent!
I was not expecting them to expand this MDT to this extent though I am also not surprised on the 15% hatched for tornadoes based on models...this is soooooo primed for an incredible outbreak today.
Kind of wild the NAM and HRRR still have different evolutions on the day. This is gonna be one heck of a day regardless and this incredible active stretch looks to continue even to the end of the month.
Thanks Trey!
Thanks so much for taking the time to get this out. Hope you have an exciting but safe chase day!
Thank you!!
Thanks trey. Stay safe out here.
Thank you for doing what you did to get it out quickly!! Im worried about those in the midwest today i hope everyone will be safe
Man, did you nail this forecast Trey? I'm currently watching this, and live feeds of chasers on a monster debris ball in Iowa. Prayers and thoughts to everyone in the paths of these storms❤
Thanks for the early update Trey
Did you see the 12z HRRR model for Thursday? It shows a tornadic supercell printer right over the DFW area! I know it’s too far out to be sure but that day could be madness as well…
Yeah, it looks pretty solid. We’ll see if other models agree
@@ConvectiveChronicles oh no... Yikes that's not good
Your videos are unmatched ❤We all appreciate your work!
Thank you so much!
Thank you.
TY for the update!
Thanks, Trey. Love your channel!
Thank you!!
I'll also be out there chasing today. Good luck and stay safe!
Thank you, same to you!
Thanks for getting this vital information and analysis out so quickly
Safe chasing and good luck today! I'll be out there too, somewhere in Iowa.
Thank you; same to you! Going to get nasty
thanks Trey!
Another banger. Thanks as always!
Thank you!
Thank you for this. My bestie lives in Ames and he is preparing.
I definitely think that the Missouri part of this setup is being slept on. The storm mode down there looks to be a bit more favorable that up north. Wouldn’t be surprised to see an upgrade to a 10% hatched tornado risk down there at the 1630 UTC outlook.
We shall see. Parameter space isn’t quite as favorable down there, as the LLJ will be moving away from MO with time, but there will be enough for an all hazards threat there
@@ConvectiveChronicles Yeah, the threat is a bit more conditional down there, but storm mode seems to be just a tad bit more favorable so a strong tornado cannot be ruled out down there. Agree though.
Dense fog this morning, now super duper humid but relatively cool here in SE Wisconsin. Gonna be a rough ride here in the risk area today
Now that I have finished the video, great video Trey as always, Its sunny here in NW AR and a light breeze this morning and warm and humid sitting in the 15% sig hail risk will be watching feels just like a few weeks ago when that intense Squall line came though that night that produced 4 tornados in my area keeping an eye
Thank you! Yeah, definitely an all hazards threat down there but mostly very large hail and wind
@@ConvectiveChronicles your welcome Trey and certainly it'll be and have fun chasing in Iowa
First significant chase day this year in WI, exited and nervous since I live in the hatched region though, hopefully its not too bad
It's pretty rare to see such a strong tornado outlook from the SPC when all signs point to a quickly degrading storm mode. That tells you something about how confident they are about broken line segments and embedded supercells in this powerful line. I think the two scariest things about the tornado threat today are:
1. This line is going to be moving extremely fast and that has a chance to catch everyone off guard. By the time a tornado warning is issued, the tornado could have already moved a couple miles from the last radar scan. Chasers and residents alike need to be ready to move QUICK when things start to go down
2. Usually, though not always, line-embedded tornadic circulations are very difficult to see. People get used to the big picturesque Iowa dusty tornadoes, and that may not happen today. They may all be extremely rain-wrapped inside the line, and that's going to make it very hard for people to confirm these from the ground, forcing us to rely more on radar as if it were a nocturnal threat.
Side note: I expect the 2% tornado risk to be pulled down the dry line into Texas even further. The 12z FWD sounding showed extreme capping, but the models are starting to converge on enough 500mb forcing to break down that cap and fire some supercells, and there's actually looking to be enough curvature ahead of any possible discrete supercells to pose a marginal tornado risk in the DFW area, but the 2% currently stops at the Red River.
Anyways, thanks for the video, Trey! It's gonna be a very busy week for you, I'm sure. Tomorrow's setup is looking more and more potent in North Texas/Arklatex as well so I'm sure you'll be ready to drop something in the morning as well.
Stay safe today, that fast-moving line scares me for how fast these tornadoes might plant and get truckin! Good luck and hope you get some great shots!
Noooo I'm in North Texas 😭 no thank you
Thank you! You’re absolutely right; these kinds of setups are always dangerous because of how fast-moving these storms will be and the overall storm mode. Hopefully folks are prepared. I also agree on the 2% potentially being extended south; could easily see a few supercells down there this evening
@@peachxtaehyung Oh it's not likely to be anything crazy today! I just think there is a very marginal tornado risk that the SPC is likely seeing too. There's not even full confidence a storm will fire south of the Red River, and fingers crossed that it doesn't!
trey's gonna have a busy offseason making all of the breakdowns for such a busy tornado season
Good work as always, Have you considered recording with a cam? Always nice to see our weather dude. I think it would help build followers perhaps. :)
Thank you! I haven’t really thought of that; I’ve always wanted the focus to be solely on the data, but maybe I could add in an extra cam in the future.
Watching this very closely here in north central MA. Stay safe today! The southern end of that marginal risk is about 30 miles to the north of me. The storms expected in northern New England today are leftovers from the MCS in Kansas a couple days ago. May get a passing shower at my house, but the activity should stay to my north.
Just outside the moderate risk and 15% hatched tornado for madison, wi. I'll be watching very closely.
I still wonder if Minneapolis/St. Paul may still get some stronger tornadoes in spite of the HRRR showing further south warm front. Minnesota has not seen much yet, which could lull many people into a false sense of security. Additionally, I really hope that we don't see our first EF-5 since 2013, and hope that there's not a high-end "inland-hurricane" derecho like Cedar Rapids got. I also wonder if the storms behave like the Iowa/Minnesota December 15 derecho. Since the trees have leafed out, if that occurs, the damage could be far worse.
It’ll all depend on recovery up there. I tend to think the warm front might struggle to get super far north (well into MN), but we’ll see
I was within a mile of the rotation of a warning near neenah-menasha, and I swear I heard ground shaking like a dumpster was lifted and droped a few times. Also one of my classmates says he was outside and actually saw a funnel cloud forming . Just wanted to comment about this experience.
Dang, glad you made it out ok!
@@ConvectiveChronicles Me too. That was one crazy night! Easily the closest I have been to an actual funnel/tornado before. Also lightning may have struck my house during that storm.
Wow in new mesoscale discussion they just mentioned that they may put a PDS tornado watch for Central Iowa 🚨
Yeah, pretty serious situation
I’m dead center of today’s moderate risk. Thank you for this in depth detailed video. Keep being the goat, Trey!
Thank you! Be safe today!
Thanks for the analysis as always Trey! Another very interesting day ahead I can’t wait to follow along & see how it plays out! One things for sure, we aren’t getting much of a shortage of severe weather this year! Premium vid!
Thank you!! This has definitely been a hyperactive year!
@@ConvectiveChronicles Ever since April 26th it's just been nonstop 😰
@@jacobm2625 Yeah, it's been a crazy season with lots of activity ahead.
My buddy is one of the EMs at University of Iowa, rest assured the authorities are taking this one seriously. Y’all do what you need to stay safe, between your actions & competent officials like him all will be well
Love these analyses! Heading out to Eastern Iowa today. Almost all the models agree ~6pm Iowa City to Quad Cities. I would chase futher into Iowa but I have to work haha...
Thank you! Best of luck and be safe!
Me too, I'm bummed.
I live in quad cities !
Hey Trey! The Greenfield tornado had an incredibly unique appearance. Out of the thousands and thousands of videos I’ve seen, this one most definitely stands out. I never seen such consultant swirling vortices, all following the same path. They were not vertical but seemed to twist around the core. I wonder if being over the fine, dusty area helped showcase the odd, multivortex structure. Furthermore, I was very shocked to see such a strong tornado from what looked like a fairly modest velocity signature; initially it looked impressive, but it seemed to fade as the tornado continued to show a nasty debris signature. Lastly, the tornado was incredibly visible, but also looked like it would have been very rain wrapped on radar. All in all, that adds up to a scary, somewhat unpredictable storm to chase (like the one a few weeks ago that took a u turn). It would be a very interesting video to get your thoughts on the reasoning behind these oddities, or made you can comment on it briefly here.
I was one of your first thousand subscribers so I’m happy your subs are finally starting to pick up, it’s well deserved! Keep up the great work! You’re undoubtedly saving lives.
Thank you so much! Yeah, the Greenfield tornado was certainly unique. I’ll add this to the list of case studies on tap once I’m done with tours, as this setup deserves a deeper look.
@@ConvectiveChronicles awesome! I posted the same comment on skip Talbots page and he got back recommending Leigh Orf’s tornado simulation. Being over the dust made this scenario a perfect real life example of the simulation. Maybe you could incorporate that too!
Yep, severe thunderstorm warning until 9:45 AM here now… 70 mph winds
On my way to Des Moines to observe.
I want to end summer early and just have a good old fashioned Michigan blizzard. Hopefully it isn't very bad by the time it crosses the lake.
Earlier in the stream you mentioned the setup could be difficult for storm chasers. I am a novice, but still love to chase. What would be your comments for storm chasers today? Thanks, did a great job while on the road!
Thank you! My advice today is to be careful and give these storms space. They will be moving fast, so you might only have one shot to see them and then it’ll be gone.
@@ConvectiveChronicles Great! Thank you!
Making my usual rounds in the Chicago metro and suburbs for work this morning, it’s spicy out there! I felt the lake breeze this morning but by 11 am, it became hazy and warm. That cap is definitely being eroded lol
At 9:28, how does a trough moving in cause the cap to disappear? (I’m in the process of learning the basics)
A trough’s approach is accompanied by large-scale ascent (rising motion). This lifts the cap higher up into the atmosphere, and as air rises, it cools. So the warm temperatures within the capping inversion cool as they’re lifted, which erodes the cap.
There are a lot of flooded roads in central Iowa so beware if you are chasing there.
Thank you for the heads up
Stay safe out chasing today Trey! Itll be a tough chase day it seems today
Thank you! Definitely a tough one today
Thank you! Definitely a tough one today
Way down here near Lake Eufaula, Oklahoma and boy oh boy...it just feels like naders.
Im in iowa now heading to menomonie wisconsin in semi truck pretty heavy overcast here in southern iowa
Be safe
Stay safe
Buddy quick with it
It's already getting windy in Quincy il. With the wind we have now and the wind we'll have later, I'm sure we'll see downed trees and power lines. Quincy normally doesn't get tornadoes because the bluffs were on. But we get straight lined winds, and that destroys everything.
Be safe today; it does look like straight-line winds will be a legitimate concern.
With nothing but love and respect toward our neighbors to the southwest, but Iowa yall can keep that mess down your way, we don't want it in Wisconsin
What do you think for on Saturday for severe weather and do you think it's more serious to the South or more serious to the north
New video is up covering my thoughts
Wow that rain right now could spell trouble
Stay safe everyone.
IOWA
Davenport IA here. Where in IA are you heading?
Currently in Corning, monitoring the corridor near here and just north of
Hoping this misses us in Lincoln NE
In my Whoopi Goldberg voice to Iowa: "you're in danger, girl!". No, it'll be okay. Just have lots of ways to receive warnings and updates.
The kinematics are far more favourable for tornadoes today as compared to last week. Wouldn't surprise me if SPC upgrades to a high risk for Iowa and parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois and Missouri today.
Not happening with the storm mode issues.
They also would have said in their outlook if a high risk was considered @@joshuarugger
It’s definitely on the table. I suspect storm mode will be the limiting factor today, but the environment is quite potent.
Looks like greenfield IA took a direct hit from a significant, large tornado
Yeah, not a great situation
I'm liking southeast Minnesota / northeast Iowa. Central and southern Iowa looks like it could quickly go linear this afternoon.
I think that’s going to be an issue everywhere, but if a storm can get going ahead of everything along that corridor, it could be solid
@@ConvectiveChronicles Looking at the current surface data and only southern Iowa has temps over 70 degrees. Questioning how far that warm front will lift.
Tail end Charlie turned out to be the only play today. Didn't get enough advection up towards the MN/IA border.
@@Scott7137 Yeah, the best air mass definitely stayed farther south. We were targeting a bit farther north but stopped in Corning to wait after looking at surface obs.
I'm in that 10 percent hatched area in WI.
Be safe!
@@ConvectiveChronicles Thanks
You must’ve gotten a new mic or are on your way to Iowa, lol.
On the road, so don’t have my normal mic
Oh goody, he said my town name (Waterloo).
It’s going to be a wild day for sure. Stay Safe!
Flood watch out turn around dont drown
Trey nailed it today
bro speedran a forecast discussion
I live just one town over from the 10% in north east Wisconsin. 😅
Be safe!
@ConvectiveChronicles Well the thing is.... I plan on chasing it. lol
The Greenfield tornado appeared to be part of a line or was it a cluster of super cells. It was also on the back side of the line. Do such intense tornado's normally occur in this setup?
It was a semi-discrete supercell within a cluster of supercells at the tail end of a line...quite a complex setup! You can definitely get strong tornadoes in that setup. As long as the storms are somewhat discrete, storm interactions along with the potent environment can fuel strong tornadoes.