DO NOT INVEST IN POKEMON CARDS! You Will LOSE!
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 7 ต.ค. 2024
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I totally agree, stay away from slabs or singles. If you want a card because you love it that's another story. Sealed remains king for profit or investment.
Every SIR and IR from Pokémon 151 will probably be expensive in the future and also Master Balls from Japanese 151. Such a no brainer set.
Sure that could happen but the sealed will far out run the card prices.
151 is carried by Venusaur and the market just prices Charizard higher because that's what it thinks it's supposed to do.
I have the magikarp in PSA 10 it’s my only slab and I won’t be selling it high or low! And I got it low!
I’m afraid to continue the video after that greninja popped up. I just bought a ton of slabs for my personal collection nooooooo
@@Dawn-lp6se Turn it off and walk away!!!
Lol
If it's really for your personal collection, it shouldn't matter. But if you're buying cards you should always wait a little while for the prices to come down after release.
@@NostalgiaNomics too late, I’m a masochist so bring on the pain baby hahaha
@@Dawn-lp6se 🤣🤣🤣
The timmys wont stop buying the moonbreon meanwhile japanese classic collection gold border base repints will go to the moon
@tyrants3062 classic collection could possibly be the worst product ever released. Just sayin..
Spitting facts. Another banger 🔥
Only buying SIR’s and IR’s. That’s it. Nothing else.
My son is doing the same but also adding certain Hyper rare. I only do sealed.
I just want the gallarians from crown zenith. I don't care if they stay the same forever they are cool looking cards to me.
Im slabbing the terapagos and rocking it on a chain.
YESSS! That's the move 🚀
The kids love Terapagos. The SV games are terrible and I think everyone agrees but I think people are sleeping on how successful this new Horizons show is.
Sun and Moon waifus still holding up though
So you are saying just flip sealed items will do, no need to hold, let all item turn over within 2 years, then repeat the steps. Got it
Singles investing is just so much riskier because there are so many more factors at play than sealed. ANY ONE of which can overturn a card from hot to not, ruining any play that you might have had. Knowing the relationship between sealed and singles is id argue the most important lesson to learn for understanding appeal and patterns of behavior, because most people are in this hobby to for the singles. Sealed is pretty simple in regards but for collectors even one factor can overthrow the mass appeal affecting cards constant fluxuating value that's never stagnant.
Basically all of you examples that “run up with COVID” the erode are worth more than when they released. They did what stocks do, run way up and settle at a higher price than they started at. I get what you’re saying but your examples are wrong. “Stagnant” = holds its value.
He is not 100% correct. But 99.9%...
Only invest in limited print runs. Which Pokemon does not do much anymore. Last one was the Japanese Pos Anniversary Box. Lorcana is a better investment now. Compared to Pokemon. Even Lorcana unlimited box are risky.
You're completely right the only you can do is time the market correctly and buy the bottom. I was around during hidden fates the charizard was the biggest hit with massive value but over time it slowly decreased in value
This whole thing is nothing more than gambling for 90s kids. That's all TCG is. Sealed booster boxes and vintage slabs with high grades. That's it.
Agree with not buying PSA 10s right out of the gate, but I don’t see that Ninja PSA 10 ever dropping under 450. Way too much hype.
The hot take is that actually Greninja will go up a lot because the Eevee set in January is actually going to shift the consensus in favor of the hats. The adult market doesn't appreciate in real time that this is a Japanese children's game and that crystal rainbow crowns are actually epic and cool.
Adult market participants also overvalue the importance of the games for the success of sets. The games were important for us, but the Horizons show is the most popular the anime has ever been. The kids know the SV mons better than the last 15 years of people churning through mid-era generations.
ripping packs when a new set is released then selling off the hits while the prices are high, is my go to.
prices change all the time though. look what happened to the greninja. you missed out in that circumstance and many other sets that had similar situations.
@@RobertZ1991 much rather have newer cards circulate. no sense in hoarding them in a binder in hopes of having a valuable card. the same people i’ve sold to always remember the favor and i always get a deal. met great people doing this
Great insight from a investing standpoint. Like I commented on one of your last videos. I am new to the hobby and have not pulled the trigger yet to buying individual cards. So I think I will do better research for buying individual cards.
Appreciate it and ya hope it helps!
Does the same things apply to vintage singles? (Neo series, first ed team rocket etc?). I basically am collecting PSA 5-8s from those era mainly since I just want the arts, but I’m just wondering if they are good in terms of investments as well.
@Sg4nJr For the most part it's going to be the same. There are a handful of exceptions from each era or set but it's not usually a great play in the longrun compared to other things
There are too many classic charizard out there. They create one every 5 year or something
Yeah just get a skyridge zard
Im currently just trying to finish sets as a collector and if they worth anythig in the future its all good. Good few master sets is 10k in 5 years. I have got a few sealed boosters but unless you have capital we will never have an era of boxes being worth 1000s now everyone will at least have a box saved in years to come no point opening unless enjoy pokemon
Valid points, but there is definitely profit in singles and slabs. I say, do it all!
I invest in them and make thousands it’s called watching market and graphs carefully and understanding what is popular. I’ve made ten of thousands just off evolving skies this year. Buy master sets.
I think I agree with the overall message of this video, but I find all of the examples and argumentation so confusing. Time and time again you have said that "rarer, minter, better" is not how the market behaves anymore in this new era (which I agree with). At the same time, you use the Gem Mint rate as a way to bolster your argument that cards with a lower Gem Mint rate are more valuable. You also chose hyped-up cards as your main examples for "proving" that cards will erode in value. There are so many cards that are holding their value or rising, and those cards are the cards you chose to deliberately omit from your argument/video. What would be more valuable is to pick all the best performing cards from all the sets (price-wise), across all eras, and then calculate the percentage of rare cards that perform well. That gives a better idea that your chances of choosing the right card from each set is low. The generalized statement of "you're not good at picking cards, and you're going to lose money" is so lazy, particularly because there is a lot of nuance involved. For example, people that grade cards have become better at identifying when a card is able to earn a higher grade, thus, skewing the Gem Mint rates.
A better statement is, "don't buy into the hype." When it comes to graded cards, it's better to buy late than early if you're looking to raise the value of your collection. The sought after cards are easy to identify when you give it enough time. They tend to hold their price at both the raw and graded value. But if you think you're going to be able to master the ability of choosing the exact card when the set releases or even 1 or 2 months out, then you're going to lose money. That's, I think, the spirit of this video, but it is poorly executed.
What’s the long term cards to hold thn ? Besides sealed items
In my opinion the only reasoning that you have to do with yourself is: "do I like this card or I like it only because it is a trend?".
I personal starting to buy slabs of only card that I really love.
Maybe I should sell my Cosmic Eclipse Rosa full art and buy some more booster boxes. I pulled it from an Arceus v collection box. Literally the only pack of Cosmic ive ever ripped open too.
You're not wrong about how some people make excuses on why to buy cards, personally my biggest one is that I want it
That’s always the challenge isn’t it, separating the investment from the collector in everyone participating in this hobby.
Personally I’m a fan of a lot of characters especially with the design and artwork since S&V began; but I’ll hold off on picking up the singles until 3/6 months post release date, that’s when I’ve noticed the prices are more reasonable.
I don’t like the chunk-uh-chu rainbow personally
I’m glad I watched this video before buying a lot of singles for the future!
I’ve never been able to figure out how to profit off flipping singles and slabs. PSA 10 slabs under $100 still cost $5 to ship so your margins are rough
You reckon paldean fates will increase in price? It seems soo hated amongst the pokemon fan base
Definitely possible
Precisely why I don't collect singles.
Genuine Question: Why would the sealed product keep or even increase in value if the "underlying asset"-the singles-collectively loses value?
I grant, there is a premium on the sealed box being a collectable by itself and the fun/commercial potential of opening a sealed product.
But the value of the sealed product can't be completely detached from the single.
The box is the chance for a given set of singles.
To adress whats usually the first point: Yes, the supply of sealed product decreases, while the supply of Cards does not (or at a slower rate).
But there is also a much bigger supply for any given card, while Id argue, the demand for the unopend box itself is pretty limited. They are only thought after, because people belive somebody will pay a premium to open one at some point. For the experience of it, sure, but primarly for the cards.
if people keep opening sealed product they are lowering its the supply, thus increasing their price. At the same time, by opening sealed product they are increasing the supply of the singles, thus lowering their price
Sealed boxes become the collectible and the scarcity of that collectible is what rises the price. It becomes detached from the singles.
I do not own a team up box becuaxe I hope there is a latias latios or a gengar mimikyu inside nor do I card what those are worth. I own the team up box becuase that itself is the collectible. This is the biggest hurdle singles collectors don't understand.
@NostalgiaNomics Thanks for your replay and videos in general, much appreciated. I'd say the reverse supply aspect is sound and in fact, sealed products have risen in price in the long run, so at the moment you are right.
"I own the team-up box because that itself is collectable."
As of now, that's a sound hypothesis and there is a mark just for sealed product. But it's not evident to me, that in the long run, people will be emotionally more invested in the sealed product than specific cards. And that singles and sealed will detach so easily. I'd assume the box prices are increasing because people still believe, that some cards will be worth something in the future and buying those packs/boxes will open the chance to pull one of those valuable cards. For modern cards, the supply is quite big, but everything but the last maybe 10 years, I'm not so sure the single supply, especially good/mint quality is so huge.
We will see in 5 to 10 years;-)
@pizi305 I appreciate it 🙏. Ya that's the best thing to say is time will tell. That is the route I am taking and my belief behind it but I could always be wrong.
Directions unclear just bought $7,000 of GameStop stamped Lechonk promos. To the moon I promise
I just bought my first psa 10 and its just a pikachu promo for scarlet and violet because i liked it.
Great content as always
I most definitely have that collectors brain im about to pick up a venusaur lot for 225 and there is a shadowless , base set , Pop series holo a decent amount including a evolutions pack wish me luck 😅😅😅😅
What are yas thought on the plain Snorlax 151 promo ? I feel those will rise like Hidden Fates promo. Opinions?
🤔
A quick honest quistions would you not think paldean fates would be hard to hit with all 100 plus baby shineys counting as hits just wondering mate ???
lesson in video: good art rises in value.
Its important to understand that selling singles is profitable, but not an investment.
Singles are for company's who are on the day to day grind at scale.
Long term don't buy singles unless you are targeting a specific genre of cards at a specific moment in the market.
For example, Temporal/Paradox IR's right now are a mid to long term buy based on copy's that come to market vs customer demand.
Do things like the dock worker strike have any impact on the Pokémon card market?
😂
@@NostalgiaNomics Next video title “Strike Causes Pokémon Market Crash” plsss
@frogartti Alright since you asked for it...
Bought the giratina for $200 like 2 years ago now it’s $400
🔥
This guys logic only works if you buy the peak. If you bought when they stagnated then just hold for years and be happy!
You preach booster boxes and that's what I will do 😂
I have one of those cards, it’s also from paldea evolved PSA 10 Tyrannitar which is like a 20% psa 10 pop, it’s gonna be a huge card one day, to the moon!!
Bro. I sent in both the Karp and TTAR and they both came back a 9. Was a huge kick in the nuts.
@@rayyoung7456 nuts blasted indeed
Terra was a tough grade for me, 20 cases, pulled 7, grading 1
Buy singles for your personal collection and not for investment.
As i thought during yesterday's video. Singles are harder to predict and not as stable as sealed. i did my own research and came to that conclusion. Thanks for the video
I mean you’re right for the most part, but also lots of flawed reasoning as well.
1. Long long term yes, singles won’t keep up, but look at the point in which PC runs out. Look at sword and shield singles with PC ran out. All of the top cards doubled. More ROI than most of their boxes.
2. You talk about magikarp and greninja; both of which are IN PRINT cards. How about IN PRINT boxes currently? PE Boxes are dropping. And it’s because there are new stocks. I notice you didn’t talk about the 151 chases which, like the charizard, have a much better ROI currently.
3. I agree with vintage, but why not also look at the box prices since the 2020 boom?
Generally, you are correct, and I agree because increasing supply of cards and decreasing supply of boxes. But I think this is the one time I felt you were either picking bad data points or purposefully not showing similar sealed data points.
Buy singles then 🤷♂️
Sealed price and singles are generally correlated. It wouldn’t make sense to look at cards from new sets such as SV era or select singles from SM sets. I agree with you about the thought process, we can’t look at 15 cards as a case study. Look at just SWSH singles because they are out of print with the exception of new crown zenith there is finite supply. You can pretty much say that buying any of the top cards were great investments/plays. Here’s what you’d see on TCG player for the top cards:
Up up and away: anything in evolving skies. Gengar vmax (chase). Espeon Vmax. Tyranitar V. Galarian Moltres. Machamp V. Calyrex Vmax.
Generally up: Giratina (chase). Blaziken (chase). Lugia V (chase). Giratina Vstar. Mewtwo Vstar. Ice Rider Calyrex.
Flat or stagnant: Pikachu Vmax. Mew Vmax. Rapid strike urshifu Vmax. Starmie V.
Hype pump and dump to flat:
Charizard V (brilliant stars). Aerodactyl V. Arceus Vstar.
Steady decline: snorlax chilling reign.
Only one loser and the rest you had great opportunity to profit from or you can still be holding and be way up.
Yup learned the hard way, made a noob mistake and bought majority of the cz galarian gallery singles at their peak back in May, now all of them is down atleast 75% and then they decided to have a massive cz reprint at the disguise of sea and sky as if they didn’t reprint the set to oblivion already last year 😅. Thanks for the tips though from now on buy low sell high it is for me.
Damn... o well they are some really cool cards to have in the collection!
How did the umbreon go up so much? It will go up again once you cant get evolving skies in the stores
Unless the Eeevee/Legendary special set in January is extremely good which might flatten it out a bit for a while, which is maybe extremely likely to be the case.
I just sent a couple Terapagos to PSA I bought on eBay @$180/ea that I’m confident will grade 10s. Super risky but I have a lot of experience.
If/when it pans out, it will get me into a sealed case for under $200.
Yea, you definitely will lose money.
@@VinnyDoesLife we’ll see. I never have on similar flips.
the modern japanese singles drop over 50% fron their high point
Hello good sir, apparently Longshoremen has started a strike, basically closing our eastern ports from Maine to Texas, could this effect the arrival of new Pokémon sets?
🤷♀️
No, cards are produced domestically
@@MCWordicus that’s good 👍, what about the materials?
Cards are printed in the US, but if commodities aren’t delivered as expected there *could* be increased demand for what is available already. 🔮 🎲
@@itsyourboigame4723 Same
Bro I was calling myself slab investor until I met your channel and then l realised were I was wrong and why and now I’m only investing in sealed booster boxes cases
Must say insane difference in my app portfolio thank you Alex awesome video loved it 🍔🥓🍔🥓
Can you see these top hitters have a long term comeback ?
@@AlejandroNieto-bk3pi a small % from each era..
thoughts on Zapdos EX Mew EN 151, #202 ??
i have two not sure what to do
Too early to tell..
Alex what are your thoughts on Pokemon center etb's?
@@biggfoot8226 I like them !
Please do a video on sword and shield hits
Great reminders in this video
Hey appreciate you brother. Thank you!
Godamn titles always CLICKBAIT ME!!
@@CasperTheFriendlyGhost777 Really? I thought I made it pretty accurate on this one lol
@@NostalgiaNomics all jokes continued from yesterday’s Live (your editing & Thumbnails are next lvl) lol
Nah, I'd win.
but Greninja is the next MoOnBrEoN 🤣
Hugely helpful video, maintaining a long term historical viewpoint can save a lot of pain 🥲🎯
hot take - ES booster boxes will be 1k by end of the year!
🚀
While I agree with the points made, it’s important to also understand that there are exceptions.A lot of the big Alt Arts from Sword and Shield are iconic and continue to go up in value and I can see a continuous uptrend into years ahead as sealed product dries up.
First
❤
Unopened boxes only have value if you have a chance of hitting a valuable high grade single. If those single cards are low value, then the box is low value.
Completely false. Darkness ablaze Charizard is $80 in a PSA 10 and the box goes for $155 and there are countless examples of this. Sealed boxes become the collectible and are removed form the singles value.
Now it can help for sure but is not the only factor.
An absolute extreme example of this is emerging powers from the black and white era.
@@deckfinal751 Yes. 100%
I was thinking back to the 1/1 One Ring card where pack prices were ridiculous . Once someone found it, boxes and packs plummeted in value.
Second