"Things are pretty grim" Mark Bouris & Stephen Koukoulas Monthly Update + BONUS
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Property Insights with Mark Bouris returns with our expert economist Stephen Koukoulas, to discuss the RBA's decision and all the latest market updates .
[Recorded prior to June 18, 2024 RBA announcement ]
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Per-capita is everything. If we're importing ~700k individuals a year (about 2.5% growth rate) and the economy is only growing at 0.1% p.a., that tells us that most Australians are feeling like we're in a recession, even if the political class won't admit it. Aggregate numbers mean very little to anyone but theoreticians and Ponzi scheme operators.
The political class will do anything to keep land prices inflated. Immigration is just one of many political tools to achieve this. The Political class are the problem, not the solution.
Much of the migration policy over the last couple of decades has not only to grow the demand here, but to also undermine unionised labour. The liberals have won so far, stagnating wages and making credit (enslavement) easier so people have more stuff.
Cooking the books
The Bigger Government Australians keep voting for, the lower the Growth rate will be
And that increased in size and spending under the Coalition so the privatised public service both sides of same coin
@@michaelsouthwell5429
Government has grown every Election
Australians just want more Government
ah yep, the skill shortage of yoga teachers is being addressed.
😂 It's a Mad World 😂
Yep, which people won’t be able to afford anyway
@@amyhudson1016 Too True 🤣
Don't forget dog trainers.....
How can a business get more productivity out of a employee when sychologicaly there so stressed about whether they will be out in the street next month because of bs rent and housing costs. It's so f#*king obvious. It's amazing so many don't see this.
As an anecdote, I work in payroll but i believe this is fairly market wide and why this country is going down the toilet. All people in managerial positions recieved raises above inflation rate + bonuses while most people on the lower incomes recieved about a 2% increase. With high immigration there is very little chance of a wage price spiral.
Spot on and consumption is being choked even more , we have had an ever growing two tier economy for years way before Labor got in and even Mark has observed it , until wages rise and we have deflationary divergence with that I'm not sure how small businesses think they'll survive with only a third of the population able to buy their goods and services
WHY should the economy grow at 3% - if the economy was stable it would be static with no inflation - SO WHY ???
@@gardenersgraziers7261because it's not designed to be stable, inflation is built into the system when money is loaned into existence out of thin air
@@gardenersgraziers7261 because our economy is debt based economy. It can no longer function unless new money being created at a minimum 2-3% (inflation) l. Its been set up this way for many decades and the minute money printing stops the house of cards collapses.
Although collapse is bad in short term it can be very fair for future Australians but polititians and all other property will never allow it out of pure greed and I difference.
I’m a carpenter running a small business and I can tell you the government always trying to hammer the small dudes. I’m all for fair increase but the policy’s they have coming, for example 13% mandatory super! This will feed inflation big time
Another policy that feeds inflation is tax cuts for employee’s but not for business? Next year it will be more tax beneficial to pay myself more as an employee,(I’m not agains tax cut, it’s just getting to the WTF is the point of running a small business anymore )
Remember government policies create inflation and the people who benefit are the ones who hold the most assets and the ones that get hammered are the ones without.
Batemans Bay may cost you more than Bali😂
Abode at Malua Bay was nearly $500 per night over the weekend of the last public holiday. So $3,500 for a 1 bed room for a week. No wonder Aussie’s go to Asia instead. And then tourism operators cry ‘support local’. Get fucked.
@@JET13B I just don't go !
So an increase of 7.6% in income taxes last year in Australia - squeeze us dry.
It’s the biggest myth being circulated that the role of these financial bodies is to mitigate inflation when time and time again we see what they are doing is simply reacting. It might help to explain why never seem to be able to help control it, and it continues to get worse. But nobody in any finance sector is seen taking a pay cut..
They have the pie; they cut slices for themselves !
thinking of going back on job seeker, basically working for nothing at this rate
Booo hoooo. Why should I have to help pay you to stay home? Leach mentality
Correction - the top priority for RBA is increasing house price, not inflation nor unemployment rate.
The RBA's mandate is based on Debunked Economic theory that's it.
House prices etc.... are all just unintended consequences of arbitrary mandates, but hey Australians love Arbitrary Rules & Bureaucracy
Yes spot on, the RBA just a surrogate for the government with a mandate to support house price inflation at any cost.. I totally agree with your comments
stagflation is worst
If GDP grew just .1% - think how many government jobs were new hires, subtract them and we are in negative GDP. All those in power think we the deplorables are stupid but guess what we ARE NOT.
Unfortunately majority are mate 😢
They can’t even cook the books on this, the GDP data clearly showed the biggest contribution was government spending, everything else was going backwards !!
All the extra people not only add to housing demand why doesn’t anyone ever mention they also place demand on the limited goods and services, totally working against the RBA who are handling our discretionary budget to the banks
Love how the government wonders why productivity is low when payg wages have been going backwards for the last 15 years.
GDP does play some role but for gods sakes dont claim its a main benchmark of living standards , we had higher GDP growth previous coupled with an erosion of living standards and living standards have been dropping in certain areas for a decade , i understand your general observations but you seem to be only garnering feedback from one section of society - look at everything that has gone up in cost and been made less accessible in terms of the social contract even with great GDP growth - under the Libs going to a basic GP costs quadrupled in some cases in less than a decade. The numbers are not surprising given the expected outcomes of 13 rate rises and the fixed rate cliff this year, not to mention the small business hangover after Covid which was always coming after the set and forget government settings preceding it.
Your not even including the demographic divergence and spending habits changing just based on that with the boomers , mark eluded to that in an earlier episode - the economy structurally was already gassed when the Libs left office and dont forget its decline before Covid hit , we are in a long hangover no side of government could arrest right now
If the fed raises rates we will have to raise rates no question. Australia are a consuming country, We import most things. If the fed raises rates and we dont follow that means our dollar is worth less and that means all our imports are costing more. INFLATION
That’s false. We export more than we import according to latest ABS data
Thats because we export a lot of primary products and commodities. In the end, we import goods via the US dollar. If AUD weakens, our cost of goods go up (transport, electronics, cars, petrol etc, will all go up).
@@dirtmcgirt168 no. We import more migrants by percentage of population than any other country in the world. And everything else too cause we don't manufacture anything due to high real estate prices.
Keep in mind RBA is waiting for us to get used to permanent high inflation which is why they are keeping cash rate lower than other oecd countries.
@@InfinityIsland2203 stick to the facts. More OECD countries have a lower rate than those who have a higher rate.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news people but he is correct. I'm an Aussie getting paid in US dollars and every time the fed moved and the rba didn't our dollar got weaker and I got a pay rise. Our rates need to go up or our dollar will continue to get weaker
RBA left the cash rate unchanged today (18/6/2024)
Hopefully they cut in august
because I want to sell my house hahaha.
They won't cut.
@@javiera4148 Yeah, I just listened to the full press conference from Michelle Bullock & it sounds like they may continue to hold perhaps.
@@javiera4148 DREAM ON, all these pretend tax cuts and minimum wage increase only gets these muppets a few months of everyone pretending they are ok. They will cut and cut drastically, they are just sucking every spare dollar anymore they pumped into this consuming only economy 3 years ago. That milkshake is nearly empty.
when they cut rates you will get even less for your house. sell before September.
I just managed to get out. Just in time. Not bragging, just stating how tough it was. Limited buyers atm
Median house prices aren’t a good indicator for the standard of living. If we’re going to reference the past from 20-30 years ago on what a working couple with kids lived in then that’s the true comparison. Do the price comparison in the major cities for a 4x2 home on a 800m2 block 20min from the cbd. Your comparing apples to oranges as the median back then was a decent sized house and it’s now gone up 10-20x but the asset has changed and mostly buys a 300m2 block tiny home or a 2x2 apartment
Yes I agree with this. Also ppl don’t take into account a house built in the 70/80s would be cold as shit lol. The building stds have gone way up and with that added costs (+ inflation). But also quality is way down unfortunately on new builds… but measurements are hard to compare but it’s definitely tough out there now (major cities).
Fair point. I build around 200 houses a year for a company that’s been around for over 35 years. I would say input costs have gone up for a lower quality build that won’t last as long so I think my general statement is still true. If we want to get into semantics another point is at a median purchase price comparison we’re now factoring in lots of new apartments into the equation that are in the inner city and there are new costs like strata and new liabilities like cladding, water damage etc over time that didn’t exist for the simpler houses at the median decades ago.
Yes, disgusting the shrinking size of house sites. I built my 4Br2B3Gar on 830M2 myself but now we have shrinkflation in all housing including home units !
And State Govts won't let you build yourself anymore; they want or have been made by industry to exclude Owner Builders ! They put so many demands if you try, people don't !
25 years ago when I worked weekends, it was to get a leg up and buy my first unit. Now I earn a middle class wage as a full time teacher (120k) but need multiple side hustles to survive. I am living a lower class life on a middle class wage. The side hustles that used to improve my wealth and security now just pay for living. So by letting overseas people buy up Australia, and because of government spending inflation isn't budging, no matter how much I tighten my belt. Living week to week means that improving fiscal position is incredibly difficult, despite the hard work, which used to be rewarded.
A government forecast budget is like me going home, and writing down what I am going to buy when I win lotto.
The productivity view for basic wage increases is nonsense.
It’s asking workers to be more productive to keep up with inflation. Particularly considering the roles of machinery, automation and technology, it is impossible for workers to keep up with inflation long term.
Why should a worker be forced to be more productive in order to maintain the same or even worse purchasing power?
if i part owned yellow brick road ,i would be selling my share and run .Mark sell up and move to Monarco,
All that data is a rear vision mirror...
If you don't own land, you're working for the 10-20% who own 80-90% of the land. That means an economic system which rewards 10-20 % of its people and punishes the rest for their working lives.
This is all done by design !!!
WHY should the economy grow at 3% - if the economy was stable it would be static with no inflation - SO WHY ???
@@gardenersgraziers7261 Rising Prices !
This is a 1 week old conversation. Very deceptive
The standard of living reduction since labour have come into power has been nothing short of frightening.
Hahaha. Spoken like a true Murdoch stooge. LNP had the previous 9 years to improve things. They did nothiing.
Yes, all Labor Govts preside over that scenario, remember Whitlam, before that Cocky Calwell ? The 'Socialist' agenda, jobs for the boys but drag the rest of us down !
Oh good! Had a shit night and got a big nerve wracking day tomorrow and just saw this vid with you guys🙂 i dont have much nice,grounded,real and intelligent family, bonus in finance, so its really comforting watching you two.
Both of you good match👍
The OZ Story: Corporations price-gouge > RBA raises Rates > Landlords price-gouge renters > people with Mortgages and those renting reduce spending > Landlords and those without a mortgage increase spending > Rates stay on hold for longer > The Labor Gov ease the cost of living > media and business interest argue "wages increase inflation" > landlords rake in massive incomes and tax off-sets > And the economy slows as migration trends down...
Housing is 22% of CPI composition...
Not for long !
46 min mark regarding the consecutive rate hikes, RBA seems to have followed Voker's playbook which was from long time ago.
New zealand ex governor Don Brash implemented the 0-2% inflation range with 2% being the ceiling in 1989. Central banks decided to make the target 2%..
It allows the government to spend money they don’t have.
2% being a minimum.
Government shouldn't be involved in the Economy in the first place
@@AussieZeKieLand everyone who relies on bank loans
@@Beensash
Banks are a vital cog in the Economy
I love Banks
Actually good discussion. More consideration to increase to super and minimal wage should of been discussed
Thanks guys great information always chowing the fat 🙏👍😁
WHY should the economy grow at 3% - if the economy was stable it would be static with no inflation - SO WHY ???
Only those wanting continued property price inflation would be hanging out for interest rate cuts.. That's how they make their money.
Coming 5 days a week is supposed to decrease productivity, but increase innovation. But reality is, it decreases both of them. Atleast in my field of IT. Most of the real innovators and highly productive people choose to work alone in peace
I love these guys! You'd be hard pressed to find a better discussion on our economy anywhere else.
At present if they lower interest rates, they lower the Aussie dollar.
WHY should the economy grow at 3% - if the economy was stable it would be static with no inflation - SO WHY ???
And inflation is a surreptitious tax stealthily chipping away at the purchasing power of the dollars we earn. Central banks actively seek inflationary growth year on year. There is a reason the central banks aim for year on year inflation and it is not to make you and me wealthier. Quite the opposite in fact.
Love this format fellas, awesome
Interest rate cuts will inflate asset prices. We don’t need cuts
Chapters please!
"Things are pretty grim":
Yet house prices are soaring. New vehicle sales at record levels. Hotel rooms are $500 a night on the Gold Coast and booked out. Star casino on the Goldie busy as hell.
So, what do good times look like?
And that's how you find a bubble. Oh, the star was empty when I was there a few weekends ago. But going by the service at kitchen garden and the cost of a stubby I'm not surprised there only business is laundering money
@@jamesshort3624 Yes, enquiry after commission, and still it goes on ! The crooks are quicker & smarter !
It has to get worse before it gets better. Covid stimulus, cheap money & govt debt still needs to work it's way through the economy. Reduced standard of living & unemployment increases inbound.
I'm glad you're confident, kookey.i am not sure the RBA IS given their remarks
We are a quarry…. We export plenty ….
We're also a free gas station for US exporters.
And a few sheep !
RBA increasing rates to reduce demand. FWC setting wage increases- hardly a free market is it……
Leasehold system required which would significantly reduce both income and business taxes. The rent from these systems could go directly back into the community and as a dividend to its people. Imagine that, work less and earn more. More time for family, friends, and community.
You are dreaming. Go read some Marx/Lenin and then look what that created in USSR/ CCP et al !
@@linmal2242 Marxism. Seriously? You clearly don't understand my comments.
What I'm describing is the near opposite to Marxism.
Read some of Fred Harrison's work. You may find yourself enlightened.
He for one spent close to a decade in USSR in the 90s to early 2000s as an Economic advisor until they chose to GO AGAINST his work and advice.
A good starting point if you really want to know a better way, in my view.
Rate CUTS are the worst thing the RBA can do now.
We need cut to WELFARE spending to encourage more young people to get apprenticeships.
We need asset test cuts to encourage more pensioners (who can) to get back to work and/or sell their big houses without losing their pension. NZ did this, it's not rocket science.
It's great that Mark Bouris has a TH-cam channel, I just wish that more pragmatic solutions were discussed here.
Australians want a utopian world and happy to contribute to some degree but the reality is no one wants to reduce their standard of living, we take so much for granted, the reality is there are ‘trade offs’ Australians are happy to make as long as someone else pays for them!
Where does reckless State and Federal Government spending contribute to inflation?
Australia has over feminised its population for years. The workplace is almost devoid of men! This was done for political reasons....so that Labor could stay in office indefinitely! It has not worked. Sadly, there are more women in poverty than ever before. Property? Most people have trouble paying their bills! Everything is geared to a two income (well paid) family!!!!
Full blown stagflation, the RBA's mandate is telling it to raise rates (which they should but are ignoring). This country is something else.
Go the chookies !!
Thanks guys, always great content!
Thanks for watching!
Id love to meet Stephen one day. Hes intelligent, comical and a personality. I watch this channel mainly because of both of you together.
But kouki is wrong about houses these days. Theyre built with shit poor grade materials, fancy for one year and thats it
KOUK the meme
Productivity would go up if people returned to working onsite/office full time. Hybrid conditions is great for reduced traffic on Mon n Fri but guarantee those rolling out of bed 10min before their Teams stand up, always being afk etc are hurting throughput.
False. Productivity has increased. Sick leave has decreased. It's up to the business to manage staff workloads whether in the office or wfh. Plenty of people in the office watching youtube all day. My staff wfh 100% and the output has never been better.
@@TheSuperdodgy False for your case perhaps. There is variance depending on the industry, people/culture and size of the organisation. I work for a company that has 4,500+ employees. In this post covid WFH era, I guarantee people are out shopping, running errands etc during work hours. With many co-dependent work groups, I find it very challenging to get their time and effort. This wasn't an issue pre covid. Sick leave has decreased because staff can just wing it at home in their PJs.
@@JamesM420 You know what. They probably are. I know I do. I have my phone (office) with me. It's "remote working right". Is their work being completed? Is their manager ensuring they are meeting their workload targets? Has their productivity lessened? All things that need to be managed whether they are in the office or not.
When in the office. Are they going for coffees or a smoke outside? Are they talking to their friends? There are the same arguments. The race has been run and won. WFH outwieghs being in the office. I work for a large govt dept. 7000+. We just moved out of a building 21 floors into a space with 7 floors. WFH is here to stay permanently.
Make better use of your time. Go touch grass and walk dogs. That is what you guys should do. That is being a bit more productive then Shilling YBR.
The 2%-3% inflation band needs to be revised & is out dated.. 3% - 4 % is probably more realistic. Turkey has inflation rate of over 60%!!
The RBA needs to pull its face out of its ass & start to cut rates. GDP is anaemic. The unemployment rate is normalised, annualised & chocolatised ( the 4% unemployment rate is under reported).
Koukoulas is on the money😂😂 He should be the RBA Governor
I agree. What difference overall is a 3.x% inflation rate compared to a 2.x% rate. We need to cut and help all the people with mortgages and take money away from those without mortgages who are spending on the things that are rising which are 32:23 contributing to the inflation.
@@jpeterstme Tell me how cutting rates takes money away from those spending it? Rates need to go up significantly more.
@@riles1088 That right.. You never answered my question. So How does cutting rates reduce inflation? It actually adds to it. Rates need to go up drasticly. Encouraging people without mortgages to save money... ergo get good returns as to spending it. 6% is generous. its 5% less 37% tax. So 3.15% effectively. Thanks I'll keep spending.
Based on interest earned on savings. Most people who don’t have a mortgage have savings and earning 5-6% return. If the rates are cut so will the return on term deposits. You want rates to continue to increase so you can earn more on your savings in the bank.
@@jpeterstme That 5-6% equaltes to about 3-3.5% after tax. Savers and pensioners have been screwed by low interest rates for 10 years, while those with a mortgage have seen the equity in their properties rise by 30-40% over the last 2-3 years. So yeah seems fair to me.