"RBA is leaving us exposed" Mark Bouris & Warren Hogan

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 18 ก.ย. 2024
  • Warren Hogan is one of Australia’s most-respected economists with extensive experience in the banking and finance industry. He currently serves as the Chief Economic Adviser at Judo Bank, a challenger bank focused on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Australia. He is the Australian Financial Review's (AFR) Top Cash Rate Forecaster and Top Economic Forecaster in 2023 (awarded 2024).
    --
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ความคิดเห็น • 244

  • @jamesbubbastew
    @jamesbubbastew 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +83

    Finally a real economist!

    • @M4rt_FX
      @M4rt_FX 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Who didn’t call out the problem in the government manufacturing all these jobs! It’s fake. We don’t needs rates to go up, we need to stop immigration and government spending to cure inflation. Even if we enter an official recession.

  • @onibakulive
    @onibakulive 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +115

    Get this man on more regularly. He doesn't mince his words & everything he says is factual & nonbiast. Thankyou sir.

    • @user-yb5ez9id9p
      @user-yb5ez9id9p 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +4

      I like Warren… but when he says the Fed Reserve can cut four times and they have their cash rate higher than us.. why doesn’t he talk about the mortgages since the US have 30 year mortgages fixed for 1% , whilst in Australia our mortgages are 4 times larger on variable rate s

    • @vincewant6325
      @vincewant6325 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@user-yb5ez9id9pnot all are in the usa. And all loans are effected. Yes sadly it appears he is correct rates still need to go up 2 more times as gee in the last week items at Woolies some have gone up 20% in one week !!!

  • @EduardoRodrigues-kt1qb
    @EduardoRodrigues-kt1qb 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +64

    I’m in your camp, Mr. Hogan. Thanks for pointing out that inflation is insidious and destructive. I was a young teenager when annual inflation hit over 2400% (not a typo) in Brazil in 1993. I’ve seen the nefarious social consequences of inflation in society. 30 years on and the effects still linger. Hence why I moved to Australia 17 years ago. Gut wrenching to see the beautiful country I came to love and call home going down the same path Brazil went decades ago. The same failed policies. Polies and central bankers are wrecking this great country. And most people say nothing! That’s what’s really disturbing. The level of complacency.

    • @fmsabio
      @fmsabio 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      Well said!

    • @coreymutton1104
      @coreymutton1104 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Exactly 💯.

    • @NatP-qt1df
      @NatP-qt1df 11 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      Typical boomer

    • @EduardoRodrigues-kt1qb
      @EduardoRodrigues-kt1qb 4 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      @@NatP-qt1df i’m not a boomer, and I don’t totally blame them for doing what made sense for themselves and their families. Personally, I put a lot more blame on politicians past and present who created and implemented the policies of which boomers happen to be main beneficiaries.

  • @smeegpeeg479
    @smeegpeeg479 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +54

    Fantastic interview, love hearing from Warren. Amazed to see him address the elephant in the room about most job creation being Government jobs while the private sector is getting smashed.

    • @LeeJahn-ih9xu
      @LeeJahn-ih9xu 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      💯

    • @skyehennessey2857
      @skyehennessey2857 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +4

      Smashed and taxed!

    • @skyehennessey2857
      @skyehennessey2857 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +4

      Smashed and taxed to pay for their expansion in jobs and pay rises.

  • @BrandonLesco.
    @BrandonLesco. 10 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +63

    Whoever thinks this market will continue upwards and beyond has their head in their rear. There is a correction coming since the Russell and the Dow are showing signs of weakness. Depending on the correction may determine if the market rallies once more in the summer for a final blow off top and slightly newer high. After that, watch out. Cycle Analysis predicts a hard drop in the late summer early Fall. Also, we are now 190% Market Cap to GDP ratio. That is very extreme......currently I've been engaged in active trading, which is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility and also managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 24Bitcoin....I'm especially grateful to Linda Wilburn, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

    • @BrandonLesco.
      @BrandonLesco. 10 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      SHE IS ON TELE GRAM.

    • @BrandonLesco.
      @BrandonLesco. 10 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      @LINDAWILBURN.

    • @lburg99
      @lburg99 10 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      What I appreciate about Linda Wilburn. is her ability to tailor strategies to individual needs. She recognizes that each investor has unique goals and risk tolerances, and she adapts her advice accordingly.

    • @NullaSempre
      @NullaSempre 10 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      When it comes to investing, we want our money to grow with the highest rates of return, and the lowest risk possible. While there are no shortcuts to getting rich, but there are smart ways to go about it.

    • @Kathleendinges
      @Kathleendinges 10 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      The key to financial stability is having the right investment suggestions for a diverse portfolio. Many investment failures and losses happen when you invest without proper guidance.

  • @Vas1984
    @Vas1984 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +23

    Everyone knows there's more to inflation than just interest rates but the government doesn't care to address them as it doesn't fit their agenda

  • @womp6338
    @womp6338 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +28

    Jim Chalmers is so obsessed with avoiding a recession on paper that he is sacrificing the future of australia, and it seems driven by his own ego and legacy that he wants to leave. The ironic thing is that people are seeing through it and he will be remembered as the treasurer that sacrificed the economy for political gain. It's so frustrating that after the covid pandemic, the government again fumbles and makes the economy worse and it's so avoidable and self inflicted.

    • @user-fg5lq2dg4h
      @user-fg5lq2dg4h 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      1) what specifically is he doing that is destroying the future of the country? Genuine question.
      2) What did previous treasurers do that was any different?

    • @NatP-qt1df
      @NatP-qt1df 11 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      Exactly what is he doing that every previous govt treasurer hasn't done? Seriously

  • @Deano00777
    @Deano00777 วันที่ผ่านมา +10

    Crazy times. Sky news now saying top economists are predicting 4 rate cuts next year and another property “boom”.
    It currently takes 46 years for the average person to save a 20% deposit for a home in Sydney.
    This greed has to stop.

    • @brendand9721
      @brendand9721 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Hey man, I highly recommend not getting your information from a news source who over the past few years has leaned into being as dramatic as possible to drive up profits. They are the equivalent of Fox News in the US. It’s not even news, it’s more like reality tv drama.

  • @richardminhle
    @richardminhle 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +14

    Deflation is what we need. Only banks and governments need inflation.

    • @Dismanameboi
      @Dismanameboi 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Why

    • @skyehennessey2857
      @skyehennessey2857 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

      With a currency that wasn’t debased, deflation would be the norm

    • @donman92
      @donman92 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Corporations and the 1% love inflation

  • @BrokenShockwavee
    @BrokenShockwavee 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +21

    More of Warren Hogan... finally a real truth

  • @crusader6962
    @crusader6962 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +20

    USA has 30year fixed rates at 2% for majority of their population. You can’t compare to Australia.

    • @These-times-are-awesome
      @These-times-are-awesome 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      Shouldn’t our inflation then come down quicker?

    • @vincewant6325
      @vincewant6325 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Far from majority

    • @donman92
      @donman92 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

      We should be having 30 year fixed ffs

    • @These-times-are-awesome
      @These-times-are-awesome 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      @@donman92 yes

    • @cbisme6414
      @cbisme6414 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      ​@donman92 we did before Keating. Ours was 9.5% fixed for the full 25 years. We never had this up and down %.

  • @williamcrossan9333
    @williamcrossan9333 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +5

    So impressed with Warren. Now here's a guest who knows what his talking about, and not yet another property price spruiker.

  • @doradosurfcharters
    @doradosurfcharters 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +24

    Just took 40min to say "we are screwed"

  • @fionaidk
    @fionaidk 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +6

    Really heard the truth! Warren should be the treasurer!!

  • @HS-PGA
    @HS-PGA 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +5

    The risk to Australia has always been an external economic shock . Last time we had China trade as the buffer , this time we have no one and our personal debt levels are exponential!

  • @sicpuppyblahblah
    @sicpuppyblahblah 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +38

    Average house in the US is $250,000 and most US citizens have 30 year loans @ 2% interest fixed 🤷 The US comparison is nonsense.
    All this job creation is low value jobs. And walk around Sydney and see the number of gig economy food delivery people sleeping in the streets. These jobs aren't creating demand for housing.
    And AI cool aid. AI is a bubble. 90% hype.

    • @robertwilson8826
      @robertwilson8826 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      I fear you’re right. He talks glowingly about opening up and deregulating the economy and labour market, and fair enough, I don’t doubt these reforms have improved the broader economy and many people’s lives, but in some important ways it has also helped create many of the conditions that have trapped us working class in poverty. Sham contracting, underpayment, insecure work, underemployment have become increasingly common in the last 20 years. And yes that’s life in a capitalist economy to some degree, but we want to be very careful not to create to many of these types of jobs. Otherwise we’ll just see a further worsening of inequity and political discontent

    • @sicpuppyblahblah
      @sicpuppyblahblah วันที่ผ่านมา

      Right! The guy is delusional. The talk of 'an open and free economy' doesn't align with the current geopolitical environment.
      Orchestrated economic slowdown and currency debasement supporting decoupling and protectionism.
      This guy is delulu...

  • @marcoschena99
    @marcoschena99 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +9

    Thank you. Jim is quick to blame the RBA, but then gives $300 to every household in Australia and I would say a majority don't need it and $325 to every business to help with their power bill. People on $150k pa or more don't need $300 off their power bill and companies making $50k profit a year or more don't need $325. They are giving away $3,000,000,000 just there. I am sure we could have had the same assistance effect with around $800m. STOP giving away money Jim and audit more people involved with the NDIS. Reduce the limits on getting the pension, people with $1.4m in the bank don't need the pension.

    • @womp6338
      @womp6338 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +4

      he's giving away money as a deliberate policy. he basically said that he is bloating the public sector to boost gdp figures. and then he gets angry at the rba for even suggesting at hiking rates to counter his inflationary policy. it's ridiculous.

    • @marcoschena99
      @marcoschena99 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@womp6338 TOTALLY Agree. We need to cut the spending ASAP.

    • @peterforsyth962
      @peterforsyth962 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Political Vote grab that is shameful. Politics over people??? Vote wisely🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

    • @tms9790
      @tms9790 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Hi, the rest of the world has higher unemployment rates and higher interest rates and you interpreted that as Jim Chalmers has failed - weird take but good for you 🥴

    • @marcoschena99
      @marcoschena99 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@tms9790 I am not referring to the unemployment rate, I am talking about the unnecessary cash hand outs to high income earners and businesses making descent profits. This is just throwing money away and fuelling inflation, not to mention could be used to reduce our debt.

  • @jamestaylor8577
    @jamestaylor8577 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +4

    Warren hogan is a fantastic economist. Love his work

  • @erkanV4s
    @erkanV4s 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +8

    Too late mate got a third job unemployment numbers are bullshit

  • @ricecrash5225
    @ricecrash5225 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +25

    I’m struggling with Warrens logic. On one hand he says at 6:09 government spending doesn’t matter because it’s income into the economy. Yet he calls for further rate hikes to slow inflation. As an economist the key driver of inflation is government spending so why not just call for a slashing of our public spending and reduction of bureaucracy. I remember when RBA chairs use to call governments out for driving inflation. Now they get the blame and say nothing. Not so independent it seems.

    • @skyehennessey2857
      @skyehennessey2857 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      Exactly!!!

    • @wapphigh5250
      @wapphigh5250 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

      💯 agree @ricecrash...Hogan. "They are creating Gov jobs - but it doesn't actually matter"... Wrong. Classic Keynesian falsehood. These are unproductive jobs. In the end taxpayers have to pay these salaries. A healthy economy is growing productive jobs...

    • @donman92
      @donman92 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

      That and corporate price gouging #colesworth

    • @leonie563
      @leonie563 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Moving out of the "emergency rate settings" is around 6%. But I'm guessing that the RBA is looking at the $80bn Investor loans written since Jan-Aug 2024 as "data" that the interest can't change because it's "equity mate" and "it's yours and it's super". The Purpose of Superannuation Report is overdue it's public release. The Aged Care Reform hasn't scared anyone yet. But putting the superannuation jeanie back in the bottle is going to be necessary. Superannuation is still a relatively new phenomenon and our economy still doesn't understand it. It either needs to be shutdown or preserved till 67, otherwise we are going to have inflation spikes as Boomers and GenX hit 60-67 soon. They then have average fund size of $150k-$350k untaxed cash to blow in our economy. Supply and demand will go wild in coming years. Add to that many of them are landlords, that's serious 🤑🤑🤑🤑 and then Stage 3. And the Opposition wants to give the richest another $4,500 so they get the $9k Morrison promised at next Election. Won't that be fun to watch while the middle just gets LMITO basically. Our best chance is that they bugger off and blow their super overseas.

    • @NatP-qt1df
      @NatP-qt1df 10 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +1

      He also compared US interest rates to Aus for mortgages saying US rates are higher and we need to be near theirs, yet failed to mention majority of US mortgages are 30 year lower fixed rate loans. Here majority are variable so those higher rates would cripple the entire market here

  • @steventheodoridis2380
    @steventheodoridis2380 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +5

    I learned a lot about how this place runs and what is happening and I totally agree. Thank You.

  • @Hongsta
    @Hongsta 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +12

    THIS IS WHY WE NEED 8% interest rates ASAP TO FIX THIS FIX IT NOW FIX IT ASAP not let's see what happens

    • @stinger15au
      @stinger15au 13 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +1

      That would result in a million people losing their homes almost overnight.
      It's simply not a option.
      People are already spending 50%~ of their incomes on housing.

  • @RachelMims-l8n
    @RachelMims-l8n วันที่ผ่านมา +41

    I'm so happy I made productive decisions about my finances that changed my life forever. I'm a single mother living in Melbourne Australia, bought my second house in August and hoping to retire next year at 43 if things keep going smoothly for me..

    • @StephenJonas-k5d
      @StephenJonas-k5d วันที่ผ่านมา +1

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    • @dannyvandervaart
      @dannyvandervaart วันที่ผ่านมา

      To be honest, investing rightly today can save you a whole lot of stress in the nearest future.

    • @JonasSeiling
      @JonasSeiling วันที่ผ่านมา

      Investing in many source of income that are independent of government paychecks is the prudent thing that everyone should be thinking about right now, especially given the global economic crisis. Good assets and digital currencies are still good investment at this time.

    • @RLoger87
      @RLoger87 วันที่ผ่านมา

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    • @RachelMims-l8n
      @RachelMims-l8n วันที่ผ่านมา

      I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear that you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small Investment, thank you Alesia Haas you're such a life saver

  • @jonathangreen741
    @jonathangreen741 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +6

    Fantastic - thanks for this Mark 👍

  • @williampallot6809
    @williampallot6809 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    This guy is the first person I’ve heard who doesn’t sound like they have their own agenda. Just calls it how it is and unbiased. Kudos, please have him on again

    • @stinger15au
      @stinger15au 13 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +1

      No agenda, but the solution of "just raise rates" simply isn't a option due to the rock and a hard place the economy is in.
      7% rates would have a million people default on their loans within a year. It's simply not an option.

    • @williampallot6809
      @williampallot6809 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      @@stinger15au I agree, too much emphasis is put on rate manipulation instead of actual economic production. However I don’t think cutting rates will end well either.

  • @GillerHeston
    @GillerHeston 11 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +6

    I’m closing in on my retirement and I’d like to move from Collinsville to a warmer climate, but the prices on homes are stupidly ridiculous and Mortgage prices has been skyrocketing on a roll(currently over 7%) do I just invest my spare cash into stock and wait for a housing crash or should I go ahead to buy a home anyways?

    • @rogerwheelers4322
      @rogerwheelers4322 11 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +6

      Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.

    • @joshbarney114
      @joshbarney114 11 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +6

      This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.

    • @FabioOdelega876
      @FabioOdelega876 11 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +4

      Can you provide instructions on how to contact your advisor? I'm experiencing erosion of my funds due to inflation and looking for a more profitable investment strategy to make better use of them.

    • @joshbarney114
      @joshbarney114 11 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +6

      ‘’Marisa Michelle Litwinsky’’ is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

    • @FabioOdelega876
      @FabioOdelega876 11 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +4

      Thank you for this tip , I must say Marisa, appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her webpage, I thoroughly went through her resume, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.

  • @peterbarratt678
    @peterbarratt678 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    Says it how it is! Awesome interview 🎉

  • @justicebroker2271
    @justicebroker2271 12 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +1

    So refreshing to hear from someone who won’t pull punches and sees our rates and economy for what it is. Not another house investor shill trying to sell lower rates to drive house prices back up again.

  • @fatgim
    @fatgim 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +23

    Warren is out of touch!? Those jobs created were mainly in the public sector, not private. Private sector has been in decline. Consumer spending is in the toilet. What good would more rises do? We already had 13 in a row, RBA is out of buttons to push! Gov policy needs to change if anything to combat inflation.
    UPDATE 19/09: The Fed have just cut the cash rate by 50 basis points. That is the biggest single cut In 16 years. Australias unemployment remains steady at 4.2%, which is quite remarkable 🤯.

    • @scott1572
      @scott1572 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +6

      Not to mention the private people pay for the public jobs. It's a circular economy that ends up with less in the private pocket

    • @Vas1984
      @Vas1984 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +5

      100%! There's other factors in the governments hands which are the real reason for inflation. Of course he will be biased, he's a banker

    • @stevemartin9589
      @stevemartin9589 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      @fatgim we've had 13 rate rises because the rates were too low to start with and we had an economy out of control, people buying houses that should never have, rates are still far too low and the reason why inflation is still too high, our rates are lower than every other country. Any other time in history where we've had so many rate rises house prices crashed, but they've risen because migration is also out of control

    • @Jonoz1969
      @Jonoz1969 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

      I think he is, unfortunately.

    • @fatgim
      @fatgim 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      @stevemartin9589 Lots of different views on this, but I disagree that rates need to go higher. We had 13 in a row and house prices rose. 2 more aint going to have a significant impact on house prices.Consumer spending has been crushed already and the economy is going backwards. Gov spending and employment in the public sector needs to be reigned in. Interest rates don't Impact the population equally. Time for the federal government to do some of the lifting. Supply and demand is the biggest driver for house prices, making money supply tighter is not going to incentivise new builds!!

  • @BigG2G
    @BigG2G 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +4

    so why the panic to cut rates if the economy is pumping??? keep them higher for longer, lets see how this plays out

    • @leonie563
      @leonie563 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Because Banks are having their margins cut. Profit less than it would be. Agree about lifting GST between 10-15%. Other countries have higher GST/VAT than we do. Payroll Tax was meant to be gone the moment the States signed up for GST. States don't deserve more. As for marginal tax rates, I'd agree with Warren, but most people don't pay their marginal tax rate of 45% because they have investment structures that get's many below 13%....so that argument isn't flying. If I was PM tomorrow, I'd raise GST, remove investment incentives completely and refund everyone's superannuation account and close it down. That would be a fairer playing field. Then final act is repeal the APRA Bank Guarantee of $250k. Then 🎠 sit back and watch junkie investors hooked on easy cash suck on a 🍋. How's your risk appetite when it's your money you will lose when you f up?

  • @jackryan2135
    @jackryan2135 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +7

    I can't say i see a booming jobs market. Going by the terrible wages i see everywhere, the job market looks horrendous. Lotta desperate people taking om poorly paid second jobs, however.

  • @chrysusgroup4135
    @chrysusgroup4135 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Albanese and the State Governments are continuing to spend money at record levels and go into more debt. This is causing significant inflation as opposed to the incorrect CPI figures. If the RBA was serious about inflation, rates would be above 10 percent.

  • @hsvme6508
    @hsvme6508 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    Give the GST control to the Reserve bank as another tool. 10% base that they can’t adjust, and in the range of 10-15 give control to the reserve bank, with 6 or 12 monthly meetings

  • @M4rt_FX
    @M4rt_FX 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Interest rates aren’t impacting people like it used to, we need a stop in government spending and immigration. If rates go up they’ll just keep spending more to ‘hide’ a recession. That’s the danger.

  • @Kawasaki1-m4l
    @Kawasaki1-m4l วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    What about multinationals like Santos not being taxed.
    Freeloading.
    Including our infrastructure!
    All our resources!

  • @mattv2796
    @mattv2796 12 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +2

    US cut rates, Aus is next.
    All these rate rises you want are not going to happen

  • @aussieflyerdave5046
    @aussieflyerdave5046 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +4

    The economy is stuffed. The only levers fiscal and monetary policy hurt certain areas (especially the average Aussie) and reward others (companies with gov contracts) There are a lot of gov jobs being created which are a drain on production and taking resources. Infrastructure is being worn down and there are very little gov spending in areas which help economic growth like great motorways and cheap electricity.

  • @nicolejohnson2531
    @nicolejohnson2531 วันที่ผ่านมา

    That was the most interesting honest interview I have seen from an economist in history!

  • @fredflintstone7924
    @fredflintstone7924 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +7

    thats a prescient call. its clear that inflation is still too high and the rba has been well behind the curve

  • @dekzzx
    @dekzzx 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    The most arrogant thing in the world is thinking you can centrally plan interest rates.

  • @MichaelRobinson-l8c
    @MichaelRobinson-l8c 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    Great interview, could listen to Mr Hogan all day, wish I could be asking questions.
    I don’t agree with employment, the data is behind, the last 3 to 4 months the markets changed at grassroots. In my sphere, property, construction and tradies private industry in Sydney, worked has dried up, large redundancies taking place. Feels like the 80’s.
    Also AI I don’t think it will be the productivity producer people are claiming as technology was.
    Preciously from no internet, mobile phones, emails etc is a massive step and increased in productivity. AI is not starting from such a low base

    • @MichaelRobinson-l8c
      @MichaelRobinson-l8c วันที่ผ่านมา

      Also should add, we are all aware that the US rate cuts has less impact on discretionary spend than Australia due to the home loan structures with the US predominately 30yr fixed compared to Oz variable loans so when Mr Hogan says the US could have 3 rate cuts before it matches Oz I don’t think this is a fair comparison.

  • @Steve-kk8yb
    @Steve-kk8yb 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    What the RBA is scared of, is exactly what we need. Only a deep recession will fix inflation at this point.

  • @davemangle6448
    @davemangle6448 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thanks for getting this bloke on. Great to not get those clickbate characters that some have on.

  • @niekvandenheuvel63
    @niekvandenheuvel63 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +7

    Can’t really say ahh america is at 5.5% and they can cut 4x and still be above aus. Because that doesnt matter the majority is on way lower rates between 2-4% fixed for 30 years.

    • @joanneburford6364
      @joanneburford6364 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Exactly, the American mortgagee isn't affected like we are. He's choosing to ignore certain anomalies and I don't believe he isn't of the conservative persuasion.

    • @vbhatti09
      @vbhatti09 วันที่ผ่านมา

      There is a lot more to borrowing in whole economy than the home loans

  • @DanielPekic
    @DanielPekic วันที่ผ่านมา

    Gents. Great chat. Podcasts like this need more exposure. The host does a good job at trying to break down some of the terminology for the general audience too. Keep it up. I’m subscribed now.

  • @PeterEdwards-up6wz
    @PeterEdwards-up6wz 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Excellent interview.

  • @christopherauton3657
    @christopherauton3657 วันที่ผ่านมา

    everyone should listen to this podcast. Warren makes so much sense. Cuts through the spin from the govt

  • @mcviper270
    @mcviper270 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    I like his positivity about Australia's future potential, just not so confident about current jobs being replaced by AI and drones. It's 2024 and I don't yet have a flying car nor have I holidayed on the moon.

  • @richarddobosz6174
    @richarddobosz6174 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Excellent thank you compulsory listening

  • @milesduheaume203
    @milesduheaume203 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Warren Hogan - Brilliant!

  • @rajahferrier7475
    @rajahferrier7475 12 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    Best guest you have ever had on

  • @goldcoasttime
    @goldcoasttime 10 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    Australia's inflation problem is a government problem because the government is wasting money on non-productive renewable energy projects that require subsidies that are predominantly paid by taxpayers and pensioners who can't afford them.

  • @JimBob-qh8gl
    @JimBob-qh8gl วันที่ผ่านมา

    That Warren is spot on.

  • @ashdivakaran9664
    @ashdivakaran9664 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    He needs to do a show on the news to educate Australians in simple economics.
    And also educate the news anchors who constantly sprout nonsense.

  • @boredymcboredface8624
    @boredymcboredface8624 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    Looking at the cause of Inflation and supply chain economics interest me a HELL of a lot more than just brainlessly hiking interest rates. You can limit foreign investment in our housing market as well. BUT economics that look at WHY the price of living is going up is key. For example the price of oil has a massive impact on all parts of the supply chain (packaging and logistics). Are people eating more because they have more money ? No. Trickle down economics is bullshit. Constant growth models are bullshit. Assuming that just raising interest rates actually impacts inflation is bullshit.

  • @simonpollo
    @simonpollo วันที่ผ่านมา

    Demographer here. Unemployment rate is surprisingly low because we don’t have enough humans in the workforce. Millennials make babies for another decade and go on parental leave too. Unemployment will be low.

  • @scty96
    @scty96 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    Are you sure you haven’t mixed up the ‘24 data with the ‘23 data?

  • @PaddyAU
    @PaddyAU 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Hope Kouk is taking notes on is to be a real economist

  • @Taxonome
    @Taxonome วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    We're heading into stagflation - case closed.

  • @grantdavis953
    @grantdavis953 วันที่ผ่านมา

    The price gouging is out of control, spending will plummet, small business will close, homelessness will increase. I’m down to one meal a day just to pay the mortgage, elec, gas, fuel, rego, ctp and home insurances. I’m about to gut off the gas and electricity.

  • @JambAndSee
    @JambAndSee 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    Why is no one pointing out the fact we have a two speed economy. Young people with a mortgage have low spending and are not stoking inflation, but hurt most from interest rate rises.
    Older people who have paid off their mortgages have lots of spare income and are looking to spend (cars, holidays, investment properties, and luxury goods) and aren't as affected by interest rate rise.
    All interest rate rises do, is hurt young mortgage holders and small businesses. Both of which aren't the cause of inflation.
    This isn't boomer bashing, this is the actual situation.
    We need specific policies targeting inflation. Not heavy handed leaver pulling

    • @rtc3363
      @rtc3363 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Exactly this. Economists like this calling for rates to rise to “fix” the economy even at the risk of recession have no clue. How about having targeted fiscal policies, immigration controls and prudential measures from APRA if the govt really want to control spending.

    • @ChickityChicken
      @ChickityChicken วันที่ผ่านมา

      Fair enough but why should i get less than 5% on my savings?

    • @JambAndSee
      @JambAndSee วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@ChickityChicken that's not what we're asking for. We think the government needs to swallow bitter pills more often. And the Australian people need to be accepting of some policies like removing negative gearing, like limiting tax loop hopes for the wealthy, like properly taxing massive corporations, like making massive mining companies pay a fair price for the resources they're digging and shipping overseas.

  • @ChrisKriketos
    @ChrisKriketos วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    When is the main event triple threat. Kouk v Wazza v Markos

  • @blakedenton8247
    @blakedenton8247 วันที่ผ่านมา

    This bloke deserves way more airtime than kouk.

  • @mathewbacsik8681
    @mathewbacsik8681 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Of course there’s not enough teachers, nurses and police people. Why would anyone bother going to uni to take up these lower middle income professions knowing they will NEVER own a home. Not ever. The more young people connect the dots, the more will realise that pursuing almost any career is futile unless you’re going to inherit a property to live in. We are at risk of a large number of young people giving up. You don’t need to climb the corporate ladder to spend half the year on a beach in SE Asia. (Which is many will conclude is their best option). I don’t think it’s an overstatement to say that if property ownership is completely out of reach now, then it is only a matter of time before social cohesion collapses completely, and with it, our society as we know it.

  • @eman7282
    @eman7282 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    The headline says it all - wealth creation via currency debasement

  • @carllyons4903
    @carllyons4903 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    The economy is being manipulated by incompetent government, interest rates were dropped to low and people exposed themselves to much, and unfortunate it’s their problem, no one else’s interest rates need to increase and we probably need to have a recession to reset the housing issue.

  • @rayewilliams2651
    @rayewilliams2651 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Worth a careful listen, thanks.

  • @perrogrande
    @perrogrande 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Mark - I like your plain black shirts, what brand?

  • @barryballsit4944
    @barryballsit4944 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    "Inflation is the cause of unemployment, not an alternative to it" Margaret Thatcher, July 1981

  • @HS-PGA
    @HS-PGA 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    I clapped at the end what a great convo

  • @globaltreasures02100
    @globaltreasures02100 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Higher energy costs, higher rents, higher mortgages, higher insurances, businesses have absorbed as much of the cost increases they can, its a matter of raise prices or go broke.
    The rapid relentless rise of interest rates has price shocked the markets all around the world. If governments were good at their jobs and managed the economy sensibly then the Reserve Bank would need to do fuck all with interest rates. Its just a way to take from those struggling to pay a mortgage and give it to those who already have paid off mortgages.
    A lots of lies are been told about the reason for mass immigration, go look at job adds for qualified builders basically zero adds.

  • @becsterbrisbane6275
    @becsterbrisbane6275 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    More! More!! This was wayyyy too short!

  • @MrAnderson3
    @MrAnderson3 วันที่ผ่านมา

    I'm confused, he said job growth in Australia has been good even though most of the job growth has come from the public sector which in return "should go back into the real economy", yet says interest rates should go up?
    How is public sector spending not a problem?
    I 100% agree about his method of calculating real interest rates and they need to go up but this guys ADHD is on another level explaining his take on things

  • @warwickchristian5682
    @warwickchristian5682 วันที่ผ่านมา

    If rates are cut, watch inflation soar..!

  • @RUMNIAH
    @RUMNIAH วันที่ผ่านมา

    We should fix credit card debt at 10% Start Super at Birth have a capped tax rate of 30% and tax free threshold of $50k
    Fixed home loans of 30 years @5%

  • @RFG001
    @RFG001 10 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    I wonder why a banker would want rates to go up !

  • @angelafalcon2910
    @angelafalcon2910 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    If they want to free more houses for rent. Who don't they just cut the tax on selling an investment property

  • @goldcoasttime
    @goldcoasttime 11 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    RBA has pinned the AUD to the USD a sinking ship down 30 percent in 12 months

  • @Nunya139
    @Nunya139 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Typical banker clueless to the real world.

  • @damienderby8695
    @damienderby8695 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Great conversation

  • @LeaPustetto
    @LeaPustetto วันที่ผ่านมา

    He's got rocks in his head if he thinks housing is cheap. Incredibly insane. Needs to do his homework.

  • @davidapswoude3259
    @davidapswoude3259 วันที่ผ่านมา

    “Care economy” misnomer. NDIS Uneconomic expenditure trebles and “Promised disabled productivity”benefits” disappeared. GST is a mistake as is Superannuation. Bracket creeps whilst stamp duties are another “Stealthy creepingTAX”. Bigger Government is problematic. There’s future 7% interest rates versus 4%.

  • @duncan7855
    @duncan7855 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Rising interest rates give more money to the people who are spending up. I agree with Wayne Swan, will interest rate increases drop the price of Gas? Food? Insurance? NO, because they are all ESSENTIAL, which is why the market powers can keep increasing prices.

  • @danielprudencejolly-dn9il
    @danielprudencejolly-dn9il 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    To think the rest of the worlds problems wont affect us shortly is ludacris we are a global economony with a global derivatives market that is based around under the table deals between banks. The data that every reserve bank is
    1. incorrect
    2. lagging and
    3. reactive to the bond market

  • @petervandenberg2493
    @petervandenberg2493 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Thanks Warren, and Mark. So less common sense.

  • @vickiwithers8563
    @vickiwithers8563 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Wow
    Looks to me like he is the only one with finger on the pulse everyone else seems to be pandering
    Lift the GST and those that spend pay

  • @adrianbaker7326
    @adrianbaker7326 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Finally some real common sense

  • @safeasbtc
    @safeasbtc 17 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    A great discussion. How do we get government to back off though and let the free market work without competition in money? If government can print more at will to buy votes, the private sector and the innovation and economic growth it brings will always be hamstrung. We need more Austrian influence in our economics.

  • @Alan-bx8dt
    @Alan-bx8dt 14 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    We need Mr Hogan not Jim Chalmers he understands

  • @Petergrand371
    @Petergrand371 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    How many people do you want to loose there homes

  • @cobar5342
    @cobar5342 16 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    We need a recession. The current cost of living is not acceptable

  • @craig3949
    @craig3949 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    Warren for treasurer

  • @MidNorthCoastVagabond
    @MidNorthCoastVagabond วันที่ผ่านมา

    The Australia Institute released a podcast on the same day saying pretty much the opposite thing 🤷🏼‍♂️ I don’t know what to believe.

    • @brumbyfreedom329
      @brumbyfreedom329 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Look who has the least to lose and go from there.

  • @MrJigarercivil
    @MrJigarercivil 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +6

    Time to do some productive work then betting on housing market

  • @jpeterstme
    @jpeterstme 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    If inflation is causing prices to increase and this is bad for the economy they won’t an increase in GST be seen as increase in prices and therefore inflation.
    Also increasing the cash rate only punishes the people with mortgages and rewards the people who have savings and no debt. They then have more money to spend on goods services which drives up inflation. Continuing to hurt just the people with home loans is not the right path.
    I think an episode needs to be devoted to examining what good and services are contributing to higher inflation and what can be done to reduce it

  • @Richorob
    @Richorob 2 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    “People keep going to the snow etc etc”
    😂

  • @mitchkavney9460
    @mitchkavney9460 วันที่ผ่านมา

    How many jobs that have been created are related to Bill Shorten's NDIS?

  • @mr_jdes
    @mr_jdes วันที่ผ่านมา

    Labour shortages with 1.2 million new migrants in 2 years…… rightio

  • @JimmyVargas-kv7ii
    @JimmyVargas-kv7ii วันที่ผ่านมา

    They are leaving oz Exposed to bring it down...

  • @michaelswonderfulworld
    @michaelswonderfulworld 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    The compulsory Australian superannuation fund with its combined billions invested may be a better way to steer the economy than variable interest rates. Withholding more or less of after tax earnings of workers into their super accounts would pull the cash out of the economy as required to achieve the inflation rate required and reversed to increase very low inflation. The burden would be spread over all workers on a sliding scale instead of the smaller mortgage holding base.This could achieve less pain to the few as all taxpayers would shoulder a smaller dollar burden while still accumulating more compulsory Superannuation. Bank interest rates could be fixed at 5pc for mortgages, great for investors and good for home buyers. I realise it's not that simple but the variable rate system doesn't work that well either if high inflation turns up to innocent mortgage holders just trying to end up owning a home for their independent retirement.