"When's that rate cut?" Mark Bouris & Stephen Koukoulas Monthly Update
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 9 มิ.ย. 2024
- Property Insights with Mark Bouris returns with our expert guest, economist Stephen Koukoulas, to discuss all the latest market updates over the past month.
[Recorded May 2024 ]
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You heard it hear first. An economist saying lower interest rates will lower house prices. I can see why he chose a media career rather than as a stockbroker.
He did not mean lower rate as a direct and only cause. Lower cash rate will be a result of significantly deteriorated economy and mass unemployment. Plus, lower rates will allow more able households to sell and move/purchase a home elsewhere meaning there will be more homes for sale.
However, we now have polititians in charge that flood our country with endless migrants and endless foreign buyers and money launderers.
Well, Brisbane house prices rose quite slowly up until late 2019 (2010-2019). Rates were in fact becoming quite low, with the RBA cash rate at 1.5% in 2018. It actually dropped to 0.75% in October 2019. With rates at 4.35%, prices are now 70% higher than 2018 prices, and Brisbane rose 16.1% just over the last year to the end of May.
Rather mental.
Developers borrow money to funds their builds (interest rates are part of their costs, they pass on)... so if the net outcome is more incentive to supply and demand (migration) moderates... house price growth would moderate or fall in some locations.
"Economists will be death of capitalism". Heard this today and it made me think of Kouk.
Man you are thick! Hear? Here? Also, what first responder said. We will have a screwed economy that’s why they will lower rates. So dumb. I guess your over leveraged in property? 🤡
I’ve run a home services business for 14 years and I can tell you I’m getting less enquiry. People are tightening their belts for sure. I’m also seeing more equipment in my industry go up for sale which means they aren’t making money & either downsizing or exiting completely. My 24yo son manages a Domino’s and he said figures are down significantly. That’s info from the coalface. I agree with The Kouk, lower interest rates will build more homes & eventually put downward pressure on prices (at least from one angle). RBA will hold the line longer than needed as usual.
Mark, why is no one talking about the massive amount of money that has been printed since 2020 that actually caused the inflation? Interest rates are just a small part of the inflation story yet that’s all anyone ever talks about.
If we shrink the money supply we shrink inflation
Everything is a distraction from the mass money printing QE undermining and destroying the currency's credibility
I keep talking about this. I was so excited to read your comment. No one mentions this. You're spot on. Print lots of money. Oh no inflation... who would have thought
@AB-sv5rf It has created the largest asset bubble in history, and what happens to a bubble?
Higher interest rates do shrink the money supply…..
@@brendand9721 Agree, however I think a lot of the Covid cash has flowed into the wealthier portion of the economy and its gone to purchase assets. Given productiivity hasn't been great in the last 20 years (or more) new asset creation is decreasing so the pool of cash still washing around the economy is being used to buy the existing assets pushing up asset prices. I reckon we will end up with a decrease in services and product inflation but asset inflation may continue for some time after that... while inflation may decrease prices won't so it could be a long while for a "catch-up" in asset prices (broadly speaking).... interesting times!
Why is it inflation if a litre of milk goes up 50c but growth if a house goes up 500k?
Because if there was debt against milk, higher milk prices would be “growth”
Because housing is generally considered to be an asset?
Because of this, causes by our polititians and RBA:
A Cantillon effect is an uneven change in relative prices resulting from a change in money supply
@@fragglerock5696 not for those in their final year of high school who will have to pay for the untaxed capital gains with their future post tax incomes leveraged up
@andrewbroome7404 yep well that's how it's always been so nothing new there.. plus capital gains are taxed but obviously only when you sell
Another 40mins of ignoring businesses fundamental driver to seek increased profits. The numbers don't make sense because inequality is increasing dramatically but hidden in the numberwanging
Gotta keep the property ponzi going.
People cannot take these prices. They need higher rates to cause deflation.
Not if their mortgage goes up by 1k every hike
I guess the REAL cost of living issue is pretty much all housing.
If housing wasn't SO expensive, most of everything else would come good.
Artificial scarcity seems to be the actual government policy when it comes to housing.
HousePrice should be affordable for First home buyer
What a ridiculous idea. It is irrelevant what is causing it. If it is happening it must be recorded and we must take action to slow it and stop it. Including the gov reining in spending, the gov reducing or halting taxes on items, etc etc.
You are missing the point all services are going up more than 3% . The cost of my land tax , rates , water and electricity from the July is all expected to increase by over 10% Kouk has no concept of the real issues . These are fundamental costs and that is why retail sales is collapsing
A lot of super low, fixed interest mortgages are rolling off currently. I know that this is the main driver of my current spending habits.
Whenever it is its too late for me. I sold my house, quit my job in the ambulance service and am moving to Europe. Whatever life is about, this aint it boys. It cant be. It has to be better than being a debt slave.
Also you guys, you guys are making it sound way too complicated. The only thing that causes inflation is increasing the number of units of currency through money printing or debt creation. The only inatitution that can do that is the reserve bank. What do you think happens when you put thousands out of work during covid and then pay them centrelink, just create imaginary numbers in their accounts, basically print money. Its because your barber goes to the shops and realises he cant afford anything so he starts charging more.
Well said . Same here 50 years old, some assets. I am working twenty hours a week, studying and have completely cut back. Still live fine and travel to Asia two to three times a year. I will never play there game again and will retire out of Australia
The economy has tanked. We are down 50% on order intake for the year. Plenty of businesses struggling with no work.
Watch out for the next 6 months. big job losses inbound.
What industry?
@M.-.D capital equipment which covers a very wide broad industry. Seeing it and hearing it. Even bunnings are cutting back casual hours. Great times ahead 👌
@@Nurburg911 very interesting. Thanks for sharing.
Time stamps please.
Great informative show , I am old enough to have lived through the "Recession we had to have " with interest rates of 19 %
But as a small to medium business owner with little debt , I feel that our money is less valuable than it was back in the 90's
Speak to non essential industries like events & entertainment, motorcycles , luxuries and ask they are travelling ???
Heres my tin foil hat question..
What mechanisms are in place to prevent banks influencing each of the RBA decisions to hike or not?
The main tool for halting inflation that we keep going back to is basically not working yet the banks are absolutely rolling in profits.
How long is a string 🤔🤔🤔🤔😳👀🫣😢
Twice the length from one end to its middle. 🤘
Raising interest rates unfairly targets those starting off in life. As a cashed up high net worth retiry it does not really reign in my spending. Temporarily raising the GST targets all. The added tax could be put away and invested in a sovereign wealth fund for the benefit of all. It could then be spent at a time when stimulus again is required. The RBA needs other tools to control inflation.
Temporarily 😅😅😅
No it doesn't, if the RBA weren't so cowardly and raised interest rates high enough to actually have an impact, then house prices would come down whilst those who save get rewarded in their savings accounts.
@@glassy2937 exactly
@@glassy2937 What about those who saved and just bought in recent years? They can get slaughtered to make you feel smart? People need to buy at some point if they want to have some stability in where they live.
The Abbott and Castello show.
Not analysis - just the usual vested interest driven babble
Everything is not going up in price! The $AUD (and all fiat currencies for that matter) are collapsing in real time. Printed out of thin air and backed by hopes and dreams. The quicker you get your head around this concept the quicker you will understand it's all a scam. All aboard the Bitcoin life raft!
Kouk is not in good shape. That inhale is deafening
23:10: Are retail sales low due to interest rates, or is it because everyone is doubling down on pushing house prices higher?
The Perth market at the lower end is so mental now, you cant even buy. Unless you offer just the most insane price. And almost no conditions.
Brisbane and Adelaide less so, but still very strong. Brisbane prices are up 16% over just the last year alone.
Motor vehicle sales are still setting records also.
Where all these 'broke' people getting so much money from?
I don't know who pays your bills, but if you believe inflation is coming down I'm leaving this subscription.
so repetitive, you don't have anything else to share besides rate cut and who are the buyers?
Yeah I think if anything, another one rate rise is needed. CPI doesn't seem to measure the REAL rate of inflation.
@@williamcrossan9333nor does it seem to reflect the 20% rise over the last few years and the lagging effect of that.
Missing your two minute takes since you blocked me, kouk.
Ok 1 way fix for housing building, release cheap crown land, so builders can make money.
Mark did you say money has disappeared out of the system!?! No, it's just gone I to the hands of the already very wealthy. Surely you know that?
Something Mark or Stephen won't mention or talk about, is that "Rate Setting" equates to "Price Setting".
If you raise rates you rise the general price level, because the cost of all goods and services reflect the cost of credit.
All rate adjustments are a fiscal operation and in the case of rate hikes that is a fiscal expansion. Because the govt is a net payer of interest, when you raise the rate, hold it at a higher level for a longer period of time you are going to be transferring more and more interest income into the economy... And inflation continues and becomes sticky, the longer you hold rates, the sticker inflation is.
RBA should not be controlling the price of borrowing money. It should be determined by market forces.
Yeah I'd believe you if it wasn't for the bottomless pit in the super pool that I'm becoming very very sure bank bosses are 😋 with....LRB is bottomless pit and we need a 🧱
Hey mark, love these monthly pods. Question tho, why do you constantly get so annoyed at mainstream media commentary? I don’t think at a macro level it changes anything? I can always remember everyone saying doom and gloom and this and that. Housing has never gone backwards in Australia (most areas) as ppl keep buying and not listening to the “experts” on mainstream media. If u can afford it, u will buy a house in Australia, it’s that simple as ppl need somewhere to live
Mark is a hypocrite. He regularly appears on morning shows and spreads the sentiment.
So why wasnt inflation running out of control when the cash rate was below 1%? It should have been on fire however it is the opposite of what they are saying now. Can somone explain please?
It's what caused this mess.
Love the commentary, but PLEASE stop apologising constantly when you are calling out bad calls people made. Call it as it is……the truth is always your friend.
As a business owner I am making much more profits I can increase my price easily and my clients absorb that increase effortlessly. The value of my property portfolio increased significantly in the past few years I feel rich but I am worried. I don’t see how this is sustainable and can benefit younger generations. Everyone is short visioned in this high inflationary environment business tends to think less longer term.
What a great guest. I could listen to him for hours. So much energy.
Still hopeful of a resurge in housing? Oh dear, we are stuffed!
🙀😳🫣
Its very simple...
If inflation is not decreasing and becoming sticky they will hike rates. Lowering rates is inflationry we are picking up speed so will need more braking power..
Yes. Rates need to go up.
These are the two blokes that said interest rates were too high a month or two ago. I'll be thinking of them if RBA hikes again. LOL
No hike today
@@yellowbrickroadtv I didn't say it would be today, but they'll go up before they go down. Talk then!!!
@@robm1415 Fair call, hehe. Thanks for being here.