How Wars End - Negotiations, Coercion & War Termination Theory
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 ก.ค. 2024
- Why do wars end, and why do some refuse to do?
We spend a lot of time on this channel focusing on how nations prepare for and fight wars - and comparatively little on the thinking that goes into bringing about their end - negotiated or otherwise.
In this episode I take a bit of a break to talk about the theory behind deciding when and how nations might chose to end a war, the various ways in which they might chose to do it - and all the reasons that pure rationality is a pretty imperfect framework for predicting the behaviour of nations.
Apologies for the late release, and I hope you all enjoy.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats & Comments:
This video falls far short of presenting a comprehensive model for predicting war resolution, reflects personal opinion with an overarching goal of entertainment.
It, as always, does not constitute financial (or any other kind of) advice.
Further Reading & sources:
((Delayed 24 hours due to this release already being way overdue))
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - How Wars End
00:00:48 - What Am I Talking About?
00:02:09 - Understanding War As "Negotiation"
00:04:53 - Demands & Coercion
00:09:38 - An Optimum Way Forward
00:14:49 - Identifying Key Inputs
00:29:19 - A Complicated Calculus
00:40:11 - Perception & Information Asymmetry
00:43:50 - So How Does It End?
00:51:23 - Paths To Peace
00:58:01 - Conclusions
00:58:54 - Channel Update
Apologies for the late release - but in the end I think we've finally got this thing ready to go live!
Thanks to the Patrons who voted for this episode - my intention had originally been to also look specifically at Ukraine in this episode, but given we will likely do further dedicated videos on the conflict, I decided to focus this one on theory rather than working through all of the available indicators from Ukraine.
We'll be turning back to a more military-technical type topic next week, but for today, I hope you enjoy a slight change of pace and a discussion of the challenges and theory behind war termination.
Thnx for the video.
Hi,Perun. It's OK, You have Tenure.
100% the video is gonna be worth the wait like every Sunday
i like this more theory-based video too! when the information environment is so thick and uncertain, sometimes it’s better to wait and see before commenting (and i appreciate how you did that with the Wagner debacle). besides, having theory is useful to guide how we understand the information we get from the news.
On Korean War "ceasefire": a few points
- By 1953, the two Koreas were not the main fighting forces. Rather, it was the US (fighting as UN Command) versus China ( fighting as People's Volunteer Army). The main fighting forces were very interested in leaving the conflict as is (hence negotiations), while the two Koreas had minimal influence on ceasefire negotiations.
- ROK (south Korea) is not party to the ceasefire. This was because president Rhee, with much popular support, had no intention on leaving Korea divided. He wanted war until unification, and if he didn't he would've been shot by ROK military brass
- DPRK (north Korea) signed the ceasefire because, as instigator of the initial 1950 invasion, the boundary along the DMZ meant they effectively lost no territory (vs the 38th parallel) and humiliating US to sign a ceasefire was as good as victory. This latter point continues to be touted by the Kim regime for propaganda, and ceasefire day is known as "victory day" in the DPRK.
- this has major differecnes to the current Ukraine war. The two sides doing the fighting are still Ukraine/Russia, and no outside powers have deployed large # of troops to that battlefront. Ukr/Rus have not literally burnt out all usable troops/ammo, like did the two Koreas.
- because the main fighting forces were negotiating the agreement and there was still heavy troop concentration, there was very heavy fighting (esp. by ROK troops in the mountainous central/eastern front) until the last minute. This was dramatised in the very good Korean movie Gojijeon(The Front Line, 2011) which I do recommend watching
Finally, we've learned why Emutopia is such an aggressive and inflammatory neighbor. Their leader's a cassowary!
Half cassowary, its the fact he is only half that the rest of the Government, and indeed most of the population of Emutopia are still alive.
Never go full cassowary. Full cassowary is just frankly too much. Only half.
It's always that way: the worst ones are never from the local stock. Germany run by an Austrian, Soviet Union run by a Georgian, Washington run by a guy from Delaware...LOL.
@MM22966
Lets not get nationalist here. That is actually the source of all the problems with autocracies. The leader punch up their people with nationalist/racist talking points..
And Delaway is still USA
Glory to Emutopia!!!!!!
Family history gives a good example of both sides winning by redefining victory. When the Spaniards invaded Yaqui (Yoeme) territory, the Yaquis literally drew a line in the sand and basically said, "Do whatever you want on your side, but if you cross this line we have a problem." The Spaniards crossed the line and the Yaquis drove them back to their side of it. While the Spaniards were still licking their wounds, the Yaquis sent over elder women to negotiate the terms of Spanish surrender. As the loot of war, the Yaquis demanded 1) baptism (because the Talking Tree said that if we served the Spanish God better than the Spaniards, He would change sides and make us the Undefeated People) 2) plows and horses and lessons on how to use them (because before that we had no animals large enough to plow fields and had to plant by poking holes in the ground with a stick) and 3) musical instruments with lessons on how to use them (because we fancied them.) Quite surprised, the Spaniards agreed, and wrote back to Spain calling the battle victorious, because we had become Christians, which had been their officially stated goal, although we defeated their actual goal of acquiring slaves, gold and land.
That was a lovely story, thank you for sharing!
Heh, neat job of moving the goal posts to declare victory.
Task failed successfully. It only cost your language, traditions, & customs.
@@bustavonnutz Hate to disappoint you (oh wait, I'm not at all sorry) but we have retained our language, traditions and customs. In fact, more and more of our young people volunteer for our rituals every year, despite how arduous they are, and the number of people who speak Yoeme continues to grow.
Our pre-Christian ways have melded seamlessly into Christianity--the old ways are our old testament, and this is our new testament. I'm afraid the Catholic Church didn't have enough rituals to satisfy us, so we added quite a few of our own to the Lenten/Easter ceremonies and they are spectacular! We reject European linear thinking that has to make things either/or.
Our deer-dancer in particular bridges all ways. His nature is both human and animal, physical and spiritual, magical and miraculous. He is of the Sea Ania and also the defender of the church. All of our ways are multilayered, in fact, richer than those of the people around us. And when you participate in the Ceremonies, you enter in many different times simultaneously, including the past of Jesus, the past of our ancestors before Jesus, the past of our personal community, the present and the future--you FEEL it so vividly, all of the layers of time happening all at once!
By the way--how many ancestral customs have YOU retained?
@@DoloresJNurss That was a mic drop, if I ever saw one.
Bravo!
"The Germans had the first jet fighter.
The Allies had Texas and its oil fields."
And that's why it went the way it did.
Except sadi Arabia.
More like better allies with better access to resources
@@andrerothweiler9191his is a bit more quotable
Saudi oil not discovered.
However Britain was using Persian oil which was piped to Jaffa.
The point is the allies had oil and Germany hadn't
The allies had many colonies and manpower. The allies had a lot of people, not just the European theatre. France and Britain had a lot of colonies. Germany not so much. Did I already mention that the allies had a huge amount of people outside of their European borders fighting for them? I guess I have to point it out, because it is a ALWAYS HUGE FACT THAT SEEMS TO BE FORGOTTEN BY THE WESTERN ALLIES.
Playing civilization 5 with the Romans as my neighbors taught me war is expensive, not preparing for war is more expensive. Listening to Perun today confirmed it.
"Si vis pacem, para bellum." He who desires peace, prepares for war. One of the quotes from the loading screens of Rome: Total War
@@sjonnieplayfull5859 more like "if you desire peace, prepare a war", quote by Vegetius
To quote the always eloquent retired Genreal Ben Hodges on the situation in Ukraine: "This is what failed deterrence looks like. And the only thing more expensive than maintaining a capable defence is failed deterrence".
Spending to prepare for war and not dealing with corruption seems like the worst gaming move ever
yes what ever will happen in this ww3 right now until it will stop for 10 15 years the elites who you dayly obey with fellatio will prepare the mic elite will get even richer and you little poor pic get slaughterd in between the mashines.
Perun slipping in that "Aggressive negotiations" Star Wars reference like we wouldn't notice.
Perun throws a fast one. 😁
We need a 1 hour video about the sand, and why no one likes it.
"anyone else wants to negotiate?" - Korben Dallas
You all rock! Well done for tying all that tochter!
Not to mention the 'Mission Impossible' and 'Conan the Barbarian' references. This episode was rich in pop-culture knowledge.
"... there was something about his expression, as of a rat who was expecting cheese right around the next corner, and had been expecting cheese around the last corner too, and the corner before that, and, although the world has turned out so far to be full of corners yet completely innocent of any cheese at all, was nevertheless quite certain that, just around the corner, cheese awaited" Terry Prachett.
The subject of people believing that this time it will be a short war, made me think of this one.
Every war in Pratchett's books is WW1--a mutually futile slaughter on both sides where the common soldiers sufer meaninglessly for incomprehensible political ambitions and blind adherence to traditions. I really liked his books, so I'm glad he didn't live long enough for us to find out if he'd have gone full tankie when it came to Ukraine.
@@paulgibbon5991 Sadly not as impossible an outcome as one might hope. The poor man had rather advanced Alzheimer's Disease at the end, not a pleasant way to go.
I'm sorry his mind started going before he could see how inspiring some trans individuals find his Dwarves. Stand up and be the gender you are no matter what the haters say!
"If a war has been going on for five hundred years someone isn't trying very hard" also Terry Pratchett.
Esteemed members of the jury, today, with a careful presentation and analysis of the evidence, you will find the defendant completely innocent of any cheeses.
Troops coming home in time for Christmas is even more elusive than Steiner’s counterattack.
They never say which Christmas...
Putin uses each "annexation" as a stepping stone for the next one. Obama really buggered up in 2014.
"That attack was an order!"
DER ANGRIFF STEINERS WAR BEFEHL!
It isn't necessary for Steiner to counterattack. Just send in a scout lance, two scout lances if you're feeling frisky.
Steiner scout lance doctrine requires you report all areas where enemy military units previously existed. Because it's hard to tell one smoking crater from another.
One day I hope Perun makes a "How armies ruin armies" video :)
Thank you for another thoughtful video.
"the army and the airforce are natural enemies, like the army and the navy, or the army and the army. Damn army! they ruined the army!"
That would make for a good April Fool's video.
It's probably fairly simple when you have one army ruining someone elses army, your own army ruining itself probably gets a lot more complicated
Probably a variation of what Patton said "No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country. "
@@Rubicola174 Having private corporations competing with your state military for resources and manpower also seems to have interesting results :)
"Unless you are England and France, most countries aren't going to want to fight wars forever." As a Brit... Hilarious. Great video AGAIN 😀
As a French I called that brotherly rivalry 😆
(we gave you our kings, joke's on you, you deal with them now hahaha)
@@Keln02 Agree... The joke is on us especially after the Brexit debacle. Very few countries have embarked on a path of severe economic self harm so "willingly"
I was surprised when I discovered that according to the French, England and France had fought two one hundred years wars. I think the results were one each.
at least you guys are not as bad as Denmark and Sweden. I think we hold the world record for most wars between 2 countries...
@@keemanaan1734the Russians said "Hold my vodka"
When the actual war goal is the complete annihilation of a group of people and annexation of all of their territory in one bite or in several steps, then the defender is likely to choose to fight until the bitter end and it would be unreasonable for them to accept any compromise since a frozen conflict of annihilation is likely to continue after the aggressor consolidates their first gains.
There are an abundance of examples in recent memory that don't support your premise.
Tibet.
Mongolia.
Burma.
And that list is only of those we can identify and remember primarily because the defeated were recognizable as a defeated regime holding recognized power at the time they were defeated and their country was absorbed into the invading country. Other major conflicts and wars that don't satisfy every criteria you stated would create a list much longer.
Try telling that to the muppets protesting for peace at any price. Issue I have with those morons is they aint paying the fucking price....
I think at this point in war Russia would probably agree to get back to the lines before Feb 24, leave Donbass and Crimea issue to future negotiations and even pay out some sum in reparations in exchange for ending war and majority of sanctions being lifted, but they also have the same fear, that it is not them that can strengthen their position in the coming years, but the West could re-arm Ukraine quickly and actually at the next round Ukraine comes forth as better prepared (with F-35 fighters for example and tons of all kinds of rockets) to take back the territories and beat Russia
@@lkrnpk Ukraine seems very determined to have Victory or Death, either is fine. They aren't going to go quietly, and I doubt they are going to quit anywhere short of getting substantial territorial regains.
I would argure a conflict where both sides are choosing to fight until the bitter end but neither has the resources available to get to the enemy capital and enforce total victory is over time very likely to turn into a frozen conflict anyway.
Clausewitz is often unfairly treated by modern translations. "Politik" in his days likely meant specifically "foreign policy"
Yeah, I always heard it as "policy". You try to work with other countries, and sometimes that means a war is necessary.
that’s why i’ve usually heard it translated as “war is the continuation of DIPLOMACY by other means” rather than “of politics” as Perun stated
You are correct, in german "Politik" can mean "politics" or "policy". As a german i would point out, that the ambiguity isn't as obvious to a german than to non-german speakers.
If we think about clausewitz we also have to consider that he was a prussian officer in the 19th century were you have a society that is very militaristic and therefore questions of war, domestic politics and foreign politics were more closely tied together than in our modern age.
@@447GHT That won't do either as there are steps between diplomacy and outright war, such as trade restrictions, shipping weapons to enemies, subsidizing enemies or massing troops at the border.
Yeah, because "internal politics" was simply called ruling.
Just to restate something I said maybe a year ago in your comments - this channel is an INCREDIBLY valuable resource in helping explain to people who aren't spending a lot of time keeping up on the various issues and are vulnerable to being led astray by disingenuous talking points. Your Sunday powerpoints are an actual vaccine vs misinformation.
Beautifully put. Vaccine Vs misinformation. A saline shot of simplicity, sanity and solid models.
People who are susceptible to misinformation and indoctrination usually do not possess the capability - nor desire - to process such material, unfortunately.
Very well put. 👍
Anti vaccine people will comment something stupid.
Thank you for burying the idiotic argument "you should just negotiate with Putin" once and for all.
Of course you shohld negotiate all the time to know the actual outcome costs/gains to make an informed decision
It's like advice from parents. If you get bullied at school. Talk to the bullies and convince them not to do it.
Always remember: Russia NEVER asks to negotiate when they think they're winning.
@@camradrip3730does that work without hitting the bully In the face first?
@@camradrip3730 You need to talk to them of course that you can tell the teacher and principle "See, I tried to talk to them" 😉
Whenever Perun congratulates you, you're probably going to be in a whole lot of trouble 😂
Yep I dont ever want anything he hands me 😂
Yeah. The kiss of death lol.
I'm willing to bet a paycheck that most followers of Perun, upon not seeing the release at the usual time, shared my reaction. "I'm getting a bit worried, I sure hope that Perun is OK".
No Perun will be back soon, probably on a walk about
Hope he is not out for cigarettes.... or for milk.
“Wars begin when you will, but they do not end when you please.” Nicolo Machiavelli.
This was a great little insight into the ending of wars Perun! Keep up the good work!
If wars begin when I will, then why have all the wars I've wanted to happen not started yet? How do I contact customer support for this?
@@Shenaldrac Are you a ruler?
@@steemlenn8797 No, but I _have_ a really nice, high-quality ruler at my desk! Shows inches _and_ centimeters, a clear display of my rightful authority over the Imperial *and* Metric world.
@@Shenaldrac Ah, poor soul! In that case you are not someone who can contact the customer support, YOU are the customer support!
@@steemlenn8797 D:
Great analysis. In the case of Ukraine I think the post Soviet states will ensure Ukraine keeps getting supplies. They believe Russia will attack them next and they have good reason to believe that.
Totally rational, imo.
What "post Soviet" state has enough ammo production to supply conflict of this intensity? Belarus is literally supplying russia. Moldova is tiny. Baltic States moved away from Soviet calibers. No, it's non-USSR countries like Poland, Romania and Bulgaria that have industry.
@@KasumiRINA I think that's what was meant, even though the terminology was inaccurate... ex soviet bloc countries.
You're right but include the most of the former Warsaw pact countries. Our (Czech) ammo production runs on overdrive. Also, more than 30 years after liberation, "post-soviet" is somewhat offensive to all the people living there. Its like calling alwayts USA - the former Brittish colony.
They can't. They already donated almost all the weapons and supplies they could and their shell production is absolutely tiny compared to the consumption. The only countries that could manufacture the necessary amounts of ammunition and guns right now are Germany and USA. If they don't kick the production into near wartime scale quick then the war is as good as lost.
I disagree with your assertion about education outcomes. War is often the only way to convince Americans to learn geography.
That is slander, I absolutely do not have a zoomable 1080p HD map of Ukraine east of the Dnipro seared into my brain and how dare you insinuate I got it (if I had it, which I don't) it from looking at strategic maps.
I think the same goes for Africa. They don’t seem aware of Russian imperialism. They just think it was Europeans (forgetting Russia is in Europe (mostly)). Europeans on the other hand are a lot more aware of the Russian empire.
Cruel ...... but fair 🙂
🤣😂🤣😂
I’m so tired of this corny joke man
It's time for my Sunday ritual: cooking while watching an aussie talk about war stuff. Love your videos! ❤
Watching an Aussie talk about war stuff is like watching a Jamaican talk about ice hockey & skiing. Neither of them really know WTF they are talking about.
Have a great meal mate!
Same here, it's going to be spaghetti
Neat. I hope it's meal prep for the week.
@@joelfisk well... It is now, made vegetarian lasagna and could probably feed 5 ;)
The response of the community towards your videos its spectacular because you do a spectacular work!
That does seem to be PERUNs most visible blind sport, the apparent inability to understand and personally revel in the enormous importance he and his videos has to his audience. He keeps excusing having a world class product that attracts a world class audience.
he's good at propaganda.
@@ulrikschackmeyer848 he's good at propaganda, but you are overestimating him.
@@user-ot3wq2ru5dyou're a 1 month old account with more than 100 comments on this channel you're an obvious troll/bot.
“The Germans may have had the world’s first operational jet fighter, but the Allies had Texas and its oil fields” might be the best way I’ve yet heard of explaining why the Allied logistics infrastructure was responsible for winning the war.
Except there's no single reason why wars are won and lost though. The reasons why the Axis lost are many in hindsight.
Texas oil wasn't going to defeat Germany on its own. The millions of American soldiers, thousands of tanks and aircraft helped tremendously. And these all might not have been fighting Germany had they not declared war in December 1941.
@@AFGuidesHDthat took me off guard
@@AFGuidesHD talk about being overtly pedantic after not understanding someone was being rather general with a statement. touch grass
@@AFGuidesHDIt's not that the Allies had so much as the Axis, Germany and Japan at least, didn't. They had the jet planes but not the jet fuel. Securing oilfields was part of the reason that they both attacked in 1941. The rest as you know is history.
@@xBINARYGODx The point still remains, oil by itself does not win wars. Having access to an abundance of oil did not mean anything to Anglo-French forces in 1940, indeed it meant nothing for Britain. It would never have been able to defeat Germany simply because it had oil and "Germany didn't".
Is it my impression or every video is funnier than the previous one. I love his humor
All of the videos have some humor, some more subtle than others.
33:00 On the Rishi Sunak analogy. I think for a portion of the UK, they would probably be willing to pay the captors to *_KEEP_* Sunak. 😅😅
Based off my limited American view of UK politics, the last 3 PMs could be taken, and only then would the sins of Thatcher be stoned, so long as they keep those 3 far away from Britain.
And the other half would probably pay it JUST so that they have an excuse to de-fund the NHS...
@@stephenvavasseur8826 does Truss really count as an UK PM ? I mean there is a famous lettuce that lasted longer than her...
"In a perfectly rational world, where Kindergarteners are introduced to Game Theory right after Fingerpainting 101" LMAO!!!
I love what you said about deterring aggression. I think a lot of people don't realize that what seems to be seeking peace in the short term can be encouraging future aggression in the long term.
"Peace in our time" worked so well last time.
@@thewick-j1837 Lets also keep in mind that everyone has tried to negotiate with Russia since 2014. The outcome was Minsk agreements but Russia never respected them. Before the 2022 escalation Western leaders tried to negotiate with Putin and persuade him to cancel invasion plans but for no effect - he launched the invasion anyway.
Unfortunately this war can only be settled on the battlefield. Everyone in the West should fully grasp that.
Yup. I can understand wanting to avoid violent conflict. Like Perun said in this video, it's only relatively recently in human history that it hasn't been a primary negotiating tool. I get wanting to be more non-violently diplomatic and solve things with words instead of swords and bullets. I do, I really do! _But._ There's a difference between being adverse to armed conflict, and _refusing_ to accept armed conflict even when it is justified, valid and rational. And I fear that the latter is a standpoint I've seen pushed a lot since, well, since I was a child in the 90s in various media, from children's to adult.
tl;dr- too much of anything is a bad thing.
It says a lot about where we are that I get a little sad when I see that Perun's PowerPoint presentation is slightly less than an hour this week.
As a ritual, I'd check every Sunday morning for Perun.
For a second there, I saw no upload and I panicked.
But the upload is here.
All is right with the world.
Deciding that leadership had been replaced with alien lizard people.
Given some historical decisions made by various leaders this almost makes sense.
Trying to remember who wrote a story about alien children playing with humanity as greek gods
or how they try to speak and stumble all the time. yell at people, forget everything, whisper at the microphone. fall over a lot.
@@toast1012
Yeah, and invent new words like "covfefe",
I'm not obsessed with war. I'm obsessed with how we achieve peace.
'sustainable' peace
One line answer is to achieve peace prepare for war
@@Myanmartiger921have a bigger stick than everyone around you
@@Myanmartiger921
So be it, threaten no more
To secure peace is to prepare for war
So be it, settle the score
Touch me again for the words that you will hear evermore, hey
Don't tread on me
“IM NOT OBSESSED WAR. YOU ARE!”
I particularly liked the subtle dig at Peter Zeihan. It even has "plausible deniability"! Another brilliant vid. Thanks.
What? Nations can do something about lower birth rates?!
:)
easy pz :D
Zeihan is more like viewing a work of art - it may inspire you to think about somethin - but I don’t take his analysis suggestions any ware near as exact and clear cut as what Perun presents.
Pz predicted Putin would run out of money, still waiting.
The problem with articulate, charismatic people is that they are almost invaribly telling you what THEY want you to hear not necessarily what you want or need to know.
And no, I am not implying that PZ is in any way charismatic.
Thanks for continuing to upload regularly with outstanding long and well researched content. Definitely a huge fan. Much love from America!
I love how Perun is giving us, who will never run a country, this ongoing Skillshare tutorial on how to run a country.
Thirty years from now, someone will pay Perun's vids in a NATO leaders conference to make a point and most people present will shed a nostalgic tear.
Obviously, he can't run them all himself, so it's much more efficient to share his knowledge so those who actually do run countries might learn to do it properly. :P
I'm lodging a formal complaint that this video is less than an hour long (by over 5s!). This is not what I'm used from my high quality, totally free videos by Perun. Do better, Perun, do better!
"If America one day decided it wanted Newfoundland from Canada..."
Me, in Newfoundland: "Well that would be bad."
**looks at Canadian government**
"Eh, maybe not so bad."
**looks at American government**
"Eh, maybe let's put a pin in this topic"
Interestingly, joining America was one of the options floated during Newfoundland's change in political structure in '49
I greatly appreciate Perun calling out the demographic experts
I will say that "rationality" in Game Theory is often oversimplified. The idea broadly being that they prefer good>neutral>bad outcomes but it gets applied to "well why aren't they being smarter!" by a lot of "analysis" when criticizing it. Information asymmetries can exist, and are common in negotiations. If we are viewing war as the ultimate form of negotiation, well it stands to reason that it can have some of the highest information asymmetries. E.g. "three days to Kyiv" was a rational plan based on assumptions made about morale and support among the Ukrainian people. It wasn't a "rational" plan once you account for those things though. Even if you knew everything the opponent has said and done *so far*, you can still have information issues. Namely through stated vs revealed preferences.
Ask an average resident of Kyiv in December 2021 if they would be willing to go out in the woods, at night, in winter and attack Russian armored columns with whatever weapons they can get their hands on, you'd probably get a fairly tepid response and those who do say yes you might have some doubts over (after all there's a nontrivial share of people who think they could beat a literal bear in a fight). I mean, the War in Donbas was getting unpopular and the government had support in the 20s. Plus it's easy to say "I'd do dangerous/brave thing X" when it's all hypothetical and it's hard to know how you'll feel in the moment.
Then it's Feb 23, and Pavel is at his mate's house with a few friends, and they realize that actually, they really, really, really, hate being invaded. Pavel knows a guy who can get them access to one of those fancy Javelin or NLAW launchers for a small price and his mate's dad has a bunch of old war gear "liberated" in the chaos of the 90s. Maybe two months ago they weren't really into the idea, but now they're eager to be a tank-hunter team and are asking the MoD or MIA for some fresh AKs, ammo, while Pavel quietly slips over to his supply officer friend and hands him some cash and a bottle of vodka. Point is, there's always unknowns, particularly in war. You can be "rational" and still make mistakes. It's also possible that Putin and co have a much higher risk tolerance than most.
Very insightful. It's worth adding that leadership doesn't necessarily know the true state of things. They may be in a bubble, surrounded by people who see things as they do or even may have created a situation where good news is rewarded and bad news punished.
Another great video from Perun.
I am really sick of the "I am not pro-Russia I am pro-peace" crowd saying "UkRaInE sHoUlD nEgOtIaTe". The meme at 5:20 sums it up perfectly. Like really, what is there to negotiate? If a person is trying to murder you and your family, what settlement is there to be made? What, make an agreement that the murderer spares you and your daughter in return for letting him kill your wife and son?
Any peace agreement with Russia has to be done on Ukraine's terms. Anything less than that just teaches Russia (and any other warmonger in the world) that military invasions work. Pushing for peace negotiations at this point of time is unironically a pro-war position.
Because it is a false scenario. Russia while in the wrong and having rhetoric has not acted as if they are fighting a war of total annihilation. Like how the USA had genocidal rhetoric against Muslims in early 2000s yet did not do a genocide of Muslims in the USA.
It isn't going to start slaughtering people in the territories it controls in the millions it isn't an existential war it is not comparable to your murder analogy.
It is more akin to CPS comes and says you are a shitty parent and takes your kids from you unjustly. Is it wrong? Yes. Will you be able to reunite with your kids one day? Yes. Instead of fighting it and going to jail or police killing you or one of your kids while doing it submitting to them while unjust is better.
If Ukraine waits until they cannot logistically fight anymore to talk peace it will never be on their terms.
It should negotiate because it can’t win. And every day that passes makes negotiations that will have to take place regardless more disadvantageous for them. I don’t expect some people to get that until it’s way too late for anyone with actual power to do anything about it, but some people certainly do get it. They’re just terminally cynical « game theory » monsters who see the sacrifice of a few hundred thousand Ukrainian lives as inconsequential in their grand plan of killing a few tens of thousands of Russian soldiers.
In short, Ukraine was sent on a suicide mission on the basis of an empty promise that existed solely to start that war and keep it going until nothing is left.
What Ukraine wants to to exterminate/ethnically cleanse 5 million Russian and Russified people in Crimea, Donbas, Zaporozhye, and Kherson. Russia has as much to lose here as they did during WWII.
BuT vIoLeNcE iS nEvEr ThE aNsWeR!!!!!!!!
@@Shenaldracviolence is the question.
The answer is yes
I've been obsessed with your videos since finding them a couple weeks ago. The level of skill that you bring to articulating complex analyses in such a way as to be consumable by laymen on TH-cam is just so impressive. I greatly appreciate your efforts to explain this war. Before this, I had no idea really about what war was like, how decisions are made, and the effects that those decisions have on a fighting force. You're obviously fabulously analytical and truly well-versed in this stuff, and it's just an absolute delight to get to watch and hear these videos. You're doing such a great and necessary job, and I really appreciate you. Will be hitting your patreon when I'm able. Hope you're well, and thanks again. Had some life stuff come up 2 weeks ago and these videos have helped me focus on something other than what I'm dealing with on the homefront. Cheers, mate.
Have you also watched his very first one, which ends with something along the lines of "i should stop making power points about the war and get back to my gaming videos"? :D
Beautifully put. It would have taken me three times the words to nail the same sentiment.
To what you have written I would add the verbal humor. With every video 2-5 of his 'sayings' make it into my personal pun-factory for customising.
This time it was 'not a low bow to draw' and 'disincentivize'.
@@ulrikschackmeyer848 definitely agree! He certainly has what I take to be a cutting Australian way with humor and sharp witticisms. Well put, my friend.
@@peka2478 absolutely wild, seemingly to not even know for sure how awesome these videos are. The subscriber growth certainly does speak for itself.
Wonder if Perun's videos are shown in any militaries. These are really good stuff from logistics to planning, corruption etc etc
Apparently he's mentioned in some universities, so maybe?
If they aren't already, I have no doubt that future cadets and other military buffs will fill the learned halls with his sayings! We happy few, we band of brothers are witnessing hundreds of future proverbs being created before our very ears. His sayings may well get to be as used as those of Carl von Clausewitz!
@@ulrikschackmeyer848I think parents of teenage girls should encourage the girls to post 'Kim Kardashian is shit, I'd rather watch Perun and Peter Zeihan ' on their social media
Ukrik, don't you mean Carl von Cassowary?
There have been commanders in NATO that have mentioned his work in public Speeches.
Also a few Australian officials have proudly mentioned his work.
He doing good
I see many men and women of culture were also waiting for this to pop on!
Many men of culture were warming up with short videos of women pole-vaulting, bit we’re here now. 😁
I think with Sunak, a better strategy for the kidnappers would be to find out how much the UK would be willing to pay them to keep him…😁
As a sign of his popularity, Liz Truss became PM because, unless you were a Tory MP, anybody was better than Sunak.
It's also worth mentioning that the last parliamentary election was two PMs ago.
I think UK would come up with a way not to fund the NHS a n d not paying the ransom
Why not just send some special forces to track down where he's being held and extract him by force? You don't pay *and* get to show your military's competence.
@@Shenaldrac Because then, we would get Sunak back as a Prime Minister?
1.5 Trillions seems about right.
Having written two dissertations on Foreign Policy Analysis, I very much enjoyed this particular video. Very well done Perun
when perun said war is atleast a 2 player game all I could think of is what went throught the minds of the strategic command of the emus during the great emu war of 1932.
Word has it that they were the original writers of Churchill's 'we shall fight them on the beaches' speech, especially the "and we shall never surrender" part
"When they approach, we run away"
At least make the video 7 seconds longer, so my self worth is rising since I just watched a 60 minute highly theoretical video
Seriously thanks for the great content
"with sprinklings of wry humor..."
Some of my best college history profs did some of the same thing,...
2:32 I think you have glossed over the fact that Aristocracy used war as a means of proving their own worth. It was a means of filtering out who was worthy.
I think everyone does that. In Russia you can substitute aristocracy (because they murdered them all) for elites.
War as a means of achieving prestige, yes. The chivalry bit.
It was primarily used to accrew wealth, and reaffirm.ones usefulpnes to their liege.
On Korean War "ceasefire": a few points
- By 1953, the two Koreas were not the main fighting forces. Rather, it was the US (fighting as UN Command) versus China ( fighting as People's Volunteer Army). The main fighting forces were very interested in leaving the conflict as is (hence negotiations), while the two Koreas had minimal influence on ceasefire negotiations.
- ROK (south Korea) is not party to the ceasefire. This was because president Rhee, with much popular support, had no intention on leaving Korea divided. He wanted war until unification, and if he didn't he would've been shot by ROK military brass
- DPRK (north Korea) signed the ceasefire because, as instigator of the initial 1950 invasion, the boundary along the DMZ meant they effectively lost no territory (vs the 38th parallel) and humiliating US to sign a ceasefire was as good as victory. This latter point continues to be touted by the Kim regime for propaganda, and ceasefire day is known as "victory day" in the DPRK.
- this has major differecnes to the current Ukraine war. The two sides doing the fighting are still Ukraine/Russia, and no outside powers have deployed large # of troops to that battlefront. Ukr/Rus have not literally burnt out all usable troops/ammo, like did the two Koreas.
THANKS FOR THE EXCELLENT RESPONSE TOO THE KOREAN WAR .😮
You seem to be missing Russians role. They were against the west (as usual). The Russians have absolutely no loyalty, none.
Thank you for those points.
I understood that the PRC deliberately kept sabotaging negotiations to keep the war going and Soviet aid coming (especially technical expertise for the nascent PLAAF), as well as distract aid to resistance forces following their invasions of Tibet and Hainan. It only ended after Stalin died and more pragmatic Soviet leadership cut off supplies to Mao.
@@tomk3732 Amazing. Just about everything in your comment is wrong.
I find it almost amusing, that I obviously had to have all this "cut out in cardboard" for me. That's what I like about your videos: The logic! Often I get too carried away by all kinds of theories about war, but you set it all straight. Thanks for resetting my brain my friend. Ctrl+Alt+Del. Love from Danmark 🎯
If you want logic, read "The Dictator's handbook: Why bad behavior is almost always good politics".
To quote Rule of Acquisition number 34: Peace is Good for business
That’s Rule 35
Oh your right what’s rule 34?
War is good for business it’s easy to get them mixed up
Rule 34 was the porn one. I think that’s why it was bumped up a number.
I’m a simple man. I see or hear Ferengis, I upvote.
@@Ironclockworkin the cafe at work someone said they "didn't like Ferengis" and therefore they didn't like DS9 and that's a top 10 hot take I have heard in my life.
Rule 34: Peace is good for business and if there is something on the internet there is porn of it. (Which
Ferengis don’t miss a trick, do they?
Oh, I thought Rule 34 was "Sex is good for business"?
I love your videos. They remind me of the briefings and classes given in advanced NCO schools. Well done!
After watching so many of Perun's Videos, I'm ready for an epic Netflix series about the war between Kiwiland and Emutopia.
Kiwiland wants that bit of Emutopia routinely left off maps: Devil country.
Not on netflix, please!
Given how they treat most of their IP, and even history (Cleopatra.....) I would not trust them to respect the idea of this project. Next step for them would be Kiwiland to become an Amazonian-like Matriarchy fighting against the evil Patriarchal and homophobic dictatorship of Emutopia, and finally free the black slaves they made in the invasion of an other almost fictional nation than is not at all a depiction of Africa. And the seasons 2 and 3 would be completely focused on this new nation and its par of being abused by nations of white peuple, including Kiwiland, for "dramatic effect"
Doesn't that sounds like a thing netflix would definitely do ? That's not the show I want to watch to be honest.
Not sure I trust Disney or Amazon either to be honest (and HBO also prove they could hire bad writers too)
Let's have not US do it instead ;)
PERUN; making dry theory flow with humour, clarity and even life! A master to behold! (That is ' to look upon',) Which is what we all do anyway, so there.
The man, The myth, The legend, the Perun. Fantastic video as always!
Thank you Perun. Even before I have heard your video. You do a great job at teaching us about what is happening. I hope you have a great career.
I started watching this channel to understand better why the war started. Never before has an increased knowledge of the problem resulted in it making less sense to me. Either way, thank you for making this accessible to us
Spaniel williams is a good channel with videos about the origins of this war.
You are always on the right track when you come to the realization that "the more you know, the less you know...".
@@michaelpayne9712 that is the sign you are past the dunning-kruger curve.
"Now In a perfectly rational world where every kindergartner is introduced to game theory right after finger painting 101."
-Maximum Peruniam
I'd rather we not introduce MatPat to kindergartners, tbh.
@@taxesdeathandtrouble.1886 : "Peruntifex Maximus" would be appropriate for sundays
@@taxesdeathandtrouble.1886 No, I made it up.
@@taxesdeathandtrouble.1886 He does say it. Near the start
@@SteelFisherthen a time stamp would be useful
I hit the thumbs up before I watch for every Perun video, because I know it’s going to be top tier quality every time.
If there should ever be Perun Merch, how about Emutopia and Kiwiland Flag patches?
I’m in!
The problem is the Che Guevara effect. I know that the Emutopian political system is rotten to the core but would have to go with an Emutopia because Emus just look way cooler than kiwis. Put me down for 2 T shirts.
@@tombayley7110Have you seen the laserkiwi flag that was proposed as New Zeelands new flag a few years back? It’s definitely a very awesome patch design.
@@skirata3144 True that. Laser kiwi would make an Awesome patch design. But have you seen an emu wearing a beret ? Effortless revolutionary cool.
35:24 Stop you there. The march through the Gedrosian Desert was an example of when logistical planning (hitherto a strong point of Macedonian military abilities) failed. The plan was for the fleet sailing up the northern shore of the Persian Gulf to keep touch with the army and keep it supplied with food and water. What happened was the fleet was unable to find points to land and meet up with Alexander, so could not resupply the army, which then suffered terribly as a consequence.
As for punishing the army, Nearchus (the admiral) was not punished for his "failure" - something which should have happened even if to provide a scapegoat, if the plan had been to kill off the army (and presumably Alexander). Instead, Nearchus remained one of Alexander's closest advisers and the army was nursed back to health.
The whole episode comes across as an unexpected ordeal, when it should have been a well-planned march back to Mesopotamia WHILE achieving something Cyrus had failed to accomplish. A quixotic venture is far less likely and I suspect comes from Curtius Rufus who saw Alexander as a megalomaniacal tyrant far closer in model to the contemporary Roman emperors than to the men of Alexander's generation and age.
Incidentally, one of Alexander's successors, Antigonos Monophthalmos, attempted a rapid five day march through one of the desert regions of Media to outflank an opponent's army and his logistics broke down with men being lost to heatstroke. He had to liberally supply his soldiers with good cheer, money, food and free baggage animals to get them on side again when the army was resting after the march.
For not using the ukraine Russia war as the example, but the dastardly Kiwilanders,this was insightful projection. Hope you enjoy making these PowerPoint's as much as we enjoy listening! Thanx again.
Not gonna lie man, you implicitly called out Peter Zeihan in that part about mistaking outcomes by analyzing one trend. That dude has some good analysis sometimes but he does that a LOT. “China’s gonna collapse in ten years!!! Look at their demographics!!!”
I know you’re not usually the type of bloke to roast people though, so I doubt that was your intent. Regardless, thanks for being a voice of reason.
Noting that China has an aging population and low birth rate is one thing. Suggesting their population will drop by 50% in a couple decades is absurd.
@@grahamstrouse1165Agreed unless you can somehow proof that they’re going to attempt to invade Taiwan by getting most of their population to swim across the strait.
Don't forget male: female ratio, that makes whole trend much faster. Plus, what about women and men who simply don't want kids. Or can't have kids ..
Logic and problem solving should be curriculum for all grades. Game theory in kindergarten is equivalent to why i should share my hoard of cookies...
I never miss your episodes and never comment, but this time I must say that you could/should have used the historic example of Dubrovnik which, sitting between Venice and Ottoman empire never opted for an open war with either of them, (for obvious reasons), and still kept it's Republic and it's independence. They had fantastic diplomacy and using it, they were de facto simply paying for freedom. That cost them faaaar less than a war, kept all of its men alive and allowed trade to continue with all of the 'enemies of the Republic'. They simply swallowed their pride! A very rare example in history, that was worth of mention in your episode-concerning the subject.
Thanks and all the best from Split, Dalmatia, Croatia! 😉
I visited the DMZ in Korea long ago, and the atmosphere was incredibly intense. The reason the border guards stare at each other from half way behind the buildings is so that they are partially protected from direct gunfire. Missed Checkpoint Charlie and the Wall by a couple of years, I can only imagine.
Same here, visited the DMZ many years ago and the atmosphere was downright stifling. It was a stark reminder that the two countries are still very much at war, even if the guns are silent.
Well, Charlie is just a tourist attraction.
It's a good thing to stand in front of the wall (what's left of it) and think of it how it would be if this ran through your home town.
Or one of the conentration camps. It's not a "touristy" thing, but it's something you should do if you have the chance.
I lived most of my life 1 mile away from a small gas chamber. When I was a child you could still go in there. If you stand there under the surprisingly low "shower heads", after having just read how people climbed on each other or scratched their hands bloody on the door when the gas was coming in, something will happen inside of you.
And you will understand that sometimes "never again" means supporting a war, how contradictory that may seem at first glance.
Better hard stares than bullets bud.
@@MrGunwitch Just imagine what staring contest champions those soldiers must be, having nothing else to do during their shift than to stare each other in the eye. Without blinking. Must be very dry eyes.
Excellent and informative, as always. I hope the conflict between Emutopia and Kiwiland can be resolved. I'm optimistic!
Cheers from the UK.
As the denizens of Emutopia were select by some of the best judges in Britain I'm sure the conflict can.
Such is the propaganda from Kiwiland.
Thank you! I was waiting for your weekly release! Top tier content. If you ever write a book. I absolutely would read it!
Great vid Auzzie! I was very pleased to see you mention the topic on everyone's mind that follows your channel. With Ukraine being in the news so much these days, I feel the important topic of the day is being swept under the rug by the media and politicians. We must all stand together, and let those in power know we are resolute in our support for our Kiwi brothers. The Kiwis are always getting dragged into conflicts by those horrible state actors, the Emutopians. #StandWithKiwiland #StopEmuAggression.
I usually despised Sundays as it's usually filled with anxiety because Monday is coming, but Perun has changed all that. I look forward to Sundays now, as I'll get a welcome earful of informed and pragmatic analysis on a subject pertinent to Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
This is the kind of education that most laymen like me won't get unless someone like Perun brings it to us. Thank you for your top-quality content and I hope you'll continue to cover more topics related to war and their economics.
Thanks for the video! I listened to it while doing my laundry. Given the level of abstraction in this topic, I expected it to be a bit boring, but I greatly appreciated numerous insights in your analysis.
A key point that you presented very well is that- especially in autocracies- the interests of those in power (both officially and unofficially) are not necessarily aligned with the interests of the general population and some sort of abstract concept of the long-term interests of “a nation”. I am consistently frustrated that so much media coverage of the war in Ukraine assumes a myth that Putin acts in the perceived interests of “Russia” in the abstract. And then some western media commentators accept the Russian propaganda that the war was some sort of self-perceived defensive action to counter the potential eastward threat of nato expansion or something like the threat of “the west” transferring Ukraine from “the Russian sphere of influence to the western sphere of influence”. Those theories appear logical if we presume that Russia and Putin solely make decisions with the interests of “the Russian nation” in mind, but this is a logical fallacy.
If we instead understand that Russia is a non-democratic kleptocracy ruled by actors who leverage their influence over the government to increase their personal wealth, it is easier to understand why Prigozhin would send human waves of tens of thousands of convicts to die trying to capture bakhmut and why the Russian army is so keen to capture territory in Ukraine.
Spoiler alert- listen to Prigozhin’s rant about how the war was waged so Putin’s oligarch buddies can divvy up Ukraine’s businesses and also Putin’s comments on how Wagner was paid over $1bn in the past year to fight in Ukraine and how the contracts had “incentive pay” clauses linked to performance goals. Then read the recent WSJ article about the Russian military seizing businesses in melitopol and transferring them to private entities in Russia.
Lovely as always, keep them coming!
Thanks for continuing to upload such great content Perun!
I once read a book called "Die Kunst, Fehler zu machen" (The art of comitting errors) which was arguiing that error-culture has to be improved. The author argued that most of the succesful peace treaties were not based on revenge and reparations, but on accepting that the situation was screwed up, admitting errors happened, and coming to a relatively mild peace treaty.
"most of the succesful peace treaties were not based on revenge and reparations" - I see the merit in this statement but once the Russo-Ukrainian war ends, all I can envision is people calling for blood and retribution.
@@isaiahsmith6016 yes, that was kind of his point. Forgiveness and forgetfulness is of course contrary to our emotions in cases like these. But they do tend to lead to better overall peace outcomes.
Similar to how we want our judicial systems to not be based on vengeance and revenge and emotions, but on rehabilitation. It's hard, but better.
On one hand, the ideal is almost always between the extremes. On the other hand, the problem is just to determine, where exactly.
I mean, if a single green man who fought without insignia from 2014 onwards is left without trial, or if a single dollar spent on rebuilding Ukraine is not paid by Russia, that's techincally a compromise with a measure of forgiveness already. Heck, just the fact that Russia is still a member of the United Nations is kinda mild. Annexin Crimea and maybe some other parts too may seem mild compared to annihilating the entire Ukraine (frankly, it's been suggested that the entire point of the war in Ukraine was to make the Russian occupation on Crimea seem like the "better" outcome from the western point of view).
And that's exactly the problem with "mild" - almost anything will seem mild when compared to even more extreme idea.
@@pRahvi0 "Mild", "Compromise", "Center", all these words are defined by what they are not. They represent a position in relation to extremes. Simply blindly reaching for a "mild" outcome leaves you with The Treaty of Versailles. Too harsh to fully enforce, just harsh enough to make the Germans want to have another go at it, not harsh enough to actually stop them from rearming. You need a positive position to start from, some concrete end goals you want your peace plan to achieve and then look at what terms are enforceable and how close you can get to your goals with them.
I don't have much to add in terms of conversation. Just want to add a comment saying how much i enjoy your videos and the understanding they give me into topics like this.
Please never stop these weekly videos, greatly informative and entertaining!
The only youtube broadcast that I am really looking forward to watching every week! Thank you for the great work!
"After Pearl Harbor calling the United States asking them to surrender..." *America giggling maniacally.
One swift kick and those effete, playboy Americans will come to terms in no time. - The Japanese General Staff, paraphrased
"You see Japan, you forgot one fundamental thing, I'M INSANE!" - USA the anime character
"You know what? How about we meet at Midway and negotiate the details?"
@@purplepenguin43 The United States may be crazy, but ironically we don't need to be. We have the best chunk of territory on the planet. Militarily, it is impossible to invade. Giant oceans to the west and east, friendly countries to the north and south which also have said giant oceans preventing their invasion.
Plus, on an economic standpoint, we have the Mississippi River, which allows cheap domestic and international shipping, not to mention fertile farmland.
In my opinion, Imperial Japan had lost the war even before Pearl Harbor.
The instant the USA imposed the oil embargo on Japan, that was it. Everything afterward was Japan delaying the inevitable.
And I’m saying this as someone who likes today’s Japan.
Perun, thanks for the level headed, cogent presentation of very involved data points and points of view. You ROCK :)
As always, a thoughtful and concise coverage of topics. Thanks perun
Your videos are my weekly Highlight on TH-cam. So well done, entertainment and knowledegable. Thank you!
Glad you posted. I needed my Perun fix and was just about to shut down when I saw you go live.
I'm thinking Emutopia will fight until Kiwiland develops nukes.
Emutopia will succumb to either political or economic collapse. Kiwiland is being propped up hard and the sanctions on Emutopia, while not working magic instantly, are starting to take their toll.
The proud people of Emutopia will never surrender!! We will fight on to ultimate victory and reunite with our brothers in Kiwiland!!
Emutopia has plenty of uranium so we will develop nukes before kiwiland does.. emutopia can also distract the kiwilanders with flocks of sheep and we all know how much the kiwilanders love sheep 😊
Emutopians fighting on the side of Kiwiland are carrying out raids and incursions into Emutopian territory!
They call themselves the Free Emu Legion and the Emu Volunteer Corps!
@@CMY187there appears to be a mutiny going on, led by the leader of the Grainger group too.
Your Sunday releases are like my newspaper with coffee in the morning . Thank you.
Thx Perun new episode just in time for cycling. Great sunday to everyone
Thank you Perun 💛 for your excellent analysis. Your topics are varied and always on the mark. I 🐺 imagine the work you put into to be time consuming and I thank you for every single one of them. You are wonderful and you deserve so much credit. ❤ ty again Perun, I value your thoughts and the podcasts!!! Have a great day.
A lot to learn here about closing a deal generally. Well done!
As always; a splendid handling of this topic. Looking forward to the next presentation already.
Wow that was incredibly fast paced and comprehensive, barely had time to think.Thankfuly ,you did most of that for us👍
Dearest Perun, thank you for yet another gem. Informative, entertaining, a real service to the community:) cheers from South Africa
Generals: "Stoop! Stooop! I can not take this madness any more! I want to Golf!"
Fantastic video, as always. Thanks for the effort you so obviously put in them.
Incredibly interesting as always. Making difficult topics clear and interesting relevant. Thank you for your time effort and thoughts
I would pay a lot of money to watch a festure film or a TV show about the conflict between Emutopia and Kiwiland and the adventures of Private Conscriptovitch
I can't draw at all, or else I would have made my first book about him by now 😁
Don't forget General Corruptavitch
@@worldwanderer91thought that was General Oligarchov?
You are the sound of reason amidst this information kaos. Thank you,
I love these way more than I ever expected, I would rather a 1hr+ Perun video for information than anything found elsewhere on TH-cam.
Very well put together
9:53 - given the people who actually use Game Theory in international politics (Kissinger with Vietnam) I think a world where its applied in playground disputes would be that Clockwork Orange populated society Burgess was actually trying to warn us about. Super-rationality never turns out as comfortably clear-cut as you’d like, especially if you’re on the wrong side of the cutting 😖
What are we, fruits that you can cut the insides from and replace them by clockwork?
There's nothing rational in Kissinger giving up South Vietnam to North AFTER Vietcong was defeated or supporting Pol Pot's extreme version of communism to... Stop communism? Kissinger also sucked up to USSR. He's actually known here by people like my mum who watched Soviet TV in 1980s and knows him for a clown.
Now this is a video that needs to be show to everyone that wants to negotiate with Putin….
*Sips morning coffee* Oh nice, another lovely video from Perun. Delightful! Tyvm for these videos Perun, I love watching them with my family and friends, they really explain alot.
WE LOVE YOU PERUN!