Ukraine's Kherson Campaign - Lessons & Implications of the Southern counterattack
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 ก.ค. 2024
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Description:
While much of the narrative around the early stages of Russia's 2022 invasion centre on the battle for Kyiv and the reverses Russia suffered there, in the South, the Russian invasion was altogether more successful in its opening moves.
Advancing from Crimea, the Russians rapidly secured a number of critical positions in the South of the country, including a regional capital on the right bank of the Dnipro, the city of Kherson.
The fighting to take back Kherson would be some of the hardest for Ukrainian forces. They would face a number of high quality Russian units who were heavily dug in, and they would do it over unfavourable ground.
The fighting would take months and claim many lines before the final Russian withdrawal in November.
This is the story of that campaign - from the city's fall to its liberation, along with some of the lessons and observations that we can (with admittedly low confidence levels) make using the data available so far.
Caveats:
Data quality and certainty will always vary video to video. In the case of this video, the topic in question is battlefield movements and the conduct of operations. As such, there is a considerably lower level of confidence than there are over major economic patterns for example.
I expect that at least some of this analysis will be refuted or augmented by later discoveries or data releases - at which point I will prepare an update. But given the implications of this campaign, I thought it best to try and tell the story now, with the best information we currently have available.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Further Reading/Sources:
Several maps used credit of the Institute for the Study of War, eg.
www.understandingwar.org/back...
Visually confirmed loss statistics as per Oryx:
www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02... (and Ukr equivalent)
RE: Russian media statements - special credit to the work of people like Julia Davis & Wartranslated
JuliaDavisNews?re...
wartranslated?ref...
Telegram extracts from both the Russian MoD and Russia's Kherson administration are used - as always I do not link directly to these but they are credited here
Regarding the Antonovski campaign - the best thread documenting strikes and inadvertent BDA is maintained by the Twitter User Special Kherson Cat
/ bayraktar_1love
bayraktar_1love/s...
Graphics from the videos of Kings and Generals Included:
• How Ukraine Won the Fi...
And as always thanks to other OSINT channels and aggregators, including Ukraine Weapons Tracker UAWeapons?ref_src...
....and to all those interviewed or questioned directly in preparation for this video.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Opening Words
00:02:36 - What Am I Talking About?
00:03:18 - SPONSOR: GROUND NEWS
00:04:29 - The Fall of Kherson
00:07:20 - Victory at Mykolaiv
00:09:34 - Steady Transition
00:10:19 - The Shaping Campaign
00:12:06 - Telegraphing the Offensive
00:14:25 - The Himars Campaign
00:16:51 - The Crimean Dimension
00:17:51 - Concentrating Capability
00:20:00 - The Campaign Begins
00:21:44 - The Attack Goes In
00:22:42 - Russia Claim Victory
00:24:52 - Announcing Victory
00:26:04 - Continuing Pressure
00:27:21 - Supply, Attrition, Corrosion
00:28:05 - The Story of a Bridge
00:29:33 - Back and Forth
00:31:45 - Final Days
00:32:55 - The End
00:33:04 - The First Cracks
00:34:42 - The Withdrawal
00:39:03 - Reclamation
00:40:09 - Losses and Military Observations
00:44:39 - New Capabilities...
00:46:06 - ... And Old Ones
00:47:10 - The Cost of Victory...
00:47:52 - ... And of Defeat
00:49:10 - Interrogating Losses
00:50:48 - Some Very Old Stuff...
00:53:33 - Reactions & Significance
00:53:52 - Ukrainian Elation?
00:55:35 - Russia - Confusion and Anger
00:57:39 - International Community
00:58:55 - Discrediting "Annexation"
01:01:00 - What Next?
01:01:12 - Reading the Terrain
01:03:55 - Redeployment Opportunities
01:05:23 - Towards a Winter Campaign
01:07:24 - Conclusions
01:10:19 - Channel Update
I really hope the late releases don't become habit - but thank you for your patience regardless.
Once again I extend thanks to returning sponsor Ground News, who have been recurring supporters of the channel:
Compare news coverage from diverse sources around the world on a transparent platform driven by data. ground.news/perun
But my biggest thanks goes to those in Ukraine and Russia who provide pictures, insights, or input into events in Ukraine and Russia. I still have a backlog of contacts to get back to and people to engage with, and I will endeavour to reduce that backlog as much as possible this week now that my health seems to be improving. Using anecdotal information and small samples of images is always problematic from a data perspective, but I appreciate the time and effort that goes into reaching out to commentators like me.
no, fck that Ground News!
This is a truly international cooperation, and the sponsors of late upload are: the german internet and me personally :)
We're just grateful you're putting out content period, no matter when! It's in my opinion the best analysis I've found online It's truly the highlight of my week, as another comment here said. Thanks for all your hard work, and I hope your health continues to improve!
The war will go on for months at the very least. As much as the way mainstream news works these days might say otherwise, there's no need to rush to figure everything out.
late release? my friend every post is perfectly timed because you posted it at said time.
Dear Perun, I have just submitted 3 of your videos to Columbia University. You are now an entrant in 2 categories - Explanatory Reporting and Public Service😇 who knows, maybe the jurors appreciate your work us much as we here. So, let's hope you'll be awarded a Pulitzer👍
Hopefully he gets to be part of a documentary on this war after it ends.
@@thunderspark1536 The way reporting is going currently if you've ever worn a uniform or seen a tank some news organisation around the world somewhere will interview you for a hot take once this business is over 😅
Perun is Australian so no Pulitzer.
@@WarrioJ True true, this is the only europe land war since wwii
Was one of them the one about corruption starring Korporal Klepto and his chums? One of the best videos ever.
Can confirm as a Canadian, some of the kit I was issued was rated for -40 degrees.
Not even my winter kit, mind you, just the 'standard' cold weather coat.
The proper winter kit was rated for everything up to and including standing on the arctic ice sheet.
It gets cold here.
I might look for some of that in military surplus. I moved from southern California to New England, and I've become aware that I can no longer wear sandals in November and plan to walk back into the house with the same number of toes I had when I left.
@@barryon8706 depends, if you look up the ice man, he developed a breathing techniqure that has scientifically proven to push your ability to last in the cold, guy ran up a mountain in neg temp in a bathing suit.
I know Canada has supplied 500'000 winter kit to the Ukrainians, and Sweden has just also supplied winter equippment. The Ukrainians declared the other day, that they now have no shortage of winter uniforms.
Hmmm..... I wonder if the kit wat intentionally rated for -40 degrees because it's the same in Celsius and Fahrenheit! Coincidence? I think not!! 😁😁
@@JohnDoe-gg6kc dude wore boots on those climbs. There's a limit to circulation in the human foot. The ice man dude is pretty resilient, but he's not withstanding a winter mountain hike in Poland without shoes.
Thanks for the shoutout, we appreciate it!
Thanks for the Great Videos Bro
well I appreciate your work team!
Wait, when did perun mention you?
@@marypusineri6291 in the video. near the beginning.
Maybe you should watch videos like these so you can learn how to stop making videos full of obvious misinformation and mistakes constantly
"Working more slowly than normal though - so patience appreciated."
Mate. The sheer quality of your content (it is truly a blessing to have access to such interesting and informative presentations for free) more than makes up for anything.
Take care of your health and rest. I'm sure I'm speaking on behalf of most of your audience when saying that we will all be here for your next video, no matter if it takes more than usual.
You are such a brilliant, criminally underrated, content creator.
Immense gratitude for what you do, brother.
Your videos are an educational information treat. Look after your health.
was gonna write about the very same things u mentioned, gave u a like instead! so glad i discovered Perun lately!
Came here to say this.
I bet my life that when the documentaries come out, he'll be one of those that the sources point to for a deeper look at all aspects, encomony, bridges, planes, etc. He's doing a great service.
You said it better than I could (and I was thinking EXACTLY the same kind of thing) ... 100% agree!
"but in war - like in many other fields - it is much easier to declare the intention to do something than to actually do it"
Never in my life have I felt so personally attacked during a powerpoint presentation
😁
😆🎯😁
My wife's auntie passed away in a captured village outside of Kherson in September. Not from direct action, but from a heart attack due to the stress from the constant shelling they were living under. Still a victim of the war none the less.
Another aspect not really mentioned, is the number of losses around Kherson (as well as other fronts) from the increase usage of Russian drones like Lancet and the Iranian variants from late September on. The battlefield is evolving.
Edit: It will be interesting to see what happens once he Dnipro freezes over in winter.
The Dnipro does not always freeze over. And a lot of lancet and other drones get destroyed by 30 Gepards these days.
@@rockfella1377 It will be nice if it help's out Ukraine this year to allow ease of access for the Ukrainian light forces to raid, or maybe more...
Russia appears to be pushing the Lancet to try take out Ukr artillery, especially the Western models, as there has been an uptick in the number of videos on those recently as well as numbers appearing on Oryx. So getting more mobile AA coverage close enough to protect those assets (and others) would be great.
One of my warthunder clan mate died in Kherson being one of the drone operators died in this shameful war he was 24 years old one of his dream to have his own drone shop in kviy.
It's brackish water and it's tidal, even though it's a very small tide. It's not gonna freeze over enough to support armour. I wouldn't want to be running across thin ice, with zero cover, and artillery coming in
@@ashscott6068 I'm not talking about at Kherson so much, but meaning quite a bit more upstream.
I don't know however how well/ thick it would freeze over. I've spent many a time driving on frozen rivers, ice bridges, frozen lakes etc elsewhere.
I've been watching this guy's videos for most of the war. His absolute, drop-dead, bone-dry humor is the best. No break in cadence or tone as top-shelf zingers fly by.
Agreed. Came for the info, stayed for the laughs.
So true. If you like flagrant sarcasm as well, check out Animarchy. He covers the Ukraine war. He doesn't have the attention to detail of Perun, but he's way funnier.
You mentioned who suggested Zelensky visit Kherson, I'm 100% sure this is his idea. He recently said in a press conference that his head of security Max was having a heart attack all day. Lol In her recent book, Zelensky's former press secretary said before the full scale invasion he would regularly visit the front lines in Donbass to check on his soldiers and have to argue with his security detail to let him get as close as possible. That's just him.
Compare with Putin, who never puts himself in the slightest danger...
Compare and contrast with some of the 'leaders' we in the West have elected recently. Ukraine's one big stroke of luck was to have the right man in charge at the right time.
Im not religious.
But please god he's kept safe.
@@paulhaynes8045 Well, at least they're supporting Ukraine.
@@paulhaynes8045 To be fair, we don't really need a leader like that. Yeah, courage is certainly desirable, but we need someone who can effectively move through bureaucratic red tape and smartly read geopolitical and domestic issues.
Who else remembers the Ukraine troops riding all terrain vehicles along dirt roads armed with javelins to end-run Russian tank columns on the road to Kiev? That was some very quick, out-of-the-box thinking and went a long way towards shutting down the Russian advance. The courage, adroitness and tenacity of Ukraine's forces are truly inspiring.
Kyiv*
Theres always something you can modify a light vehicle to do deal with anything...
No wonder why the taliban now have a force thats more effective than the russian army.
@@davidty2006
Toyotas are the most effective chassis for light IFVs.
@@wom_Bat Киев
@@rustyshaklford9557 Ки́їв
1. Never thought I'd be so enthralled about power point presentations, but I LOVE your videos. Keep up the great work.
2. As a Ukrainian-American, I really appreciate that it seems like you really practice/try to pronounce the Ukrainian cities correctly. Don't get me wrong, I don't get upset when people don't as I totally get it Ukrainian and English are very different languages, but I appreciate the fact it seems like you really care.
Mate for me the one that required effort was 'Dnipro' - Pa always taught it to me as roughly 'Dnepr' but I think I managed to avoid dropping into old habits.
@@PerunAU Hey most of us have learned to pronounce a bit of Ukrainian this year it’s all good😂 Thanks for the content, appreciate it!
This war has changed people in weird ways.
@@mikevanleeuwen4912 yeah, a whole bunch of russian dudes turned into sunflowers. wild.
@@PerunAU I’m old as dirt and watched all of the black and white documentaries on WWII. Both English and British versions so it’s no wonder Ive always pronounced it Duh-neep-er. It’s been a struggle re-learning all of the Ukrainian Place Names pronunciations but I’m getting it slowly.
The only point missing is that Ukraine's win at Kherson has secured not only Odessa and Mykolaiv, but also Kryvyi Rih, Nikopol and prevented 2-side attack to Zaporizhzhia. All of that is HUGE and frees additional Ukrainian units for other fronts.
What steps would be necessary to take Skadovsk and Melitopol through the newly constructed trenches and artillery lines?
What units are left?
Russia was never going to make any successful advances towards those areas after the first 2 weeks.
@@NorthCitySider We’ll see.
@@bradleyperry1735 How can you say this with a straight face? They couldn’t take Kyiv, Kharkiv and Zaporichia, and just lost their only recently conquered city. I swear you Russian NPCs are getting dumber and dumber
The quality of work you can do in a week while still holding a day job is amazing. Proud to be able to be a patreon sponsor to support your work.
My man is gonna be loaded if he’s holding his job down too! Glad to hear it see you on patreon bro
@@jjcoola998 one thing I like about Patreon is it's pretty easy to start/stop/pause memberships to different creators, so I will sometimes sign up to a creator that I know is already doing just fine financially and toss them a few extra bucks for a couple of months just to say thanks for the content. Then I'll stop that sub and give those few dollars to some new channel that needs the support more.
Ukraine doesn't really exist. Ethnicities are all a social construct, made up i.e. don't exist. Migrations happen, peoples come and go. An immigrant is just a friend you don't know and they will do the jobs locals don't do. We all bleed red and we are all the same. Ukraine doesn't exist, let go of racism and hate towards Russian migrants
Watching your videos feels like being the President of the United States getting his weekly intelligence update on Ukraine. Incredibly detailed, impartial, yet also entertaining with the occasional joke here and there. Thank you for your time and effort that goes into making these videos. Really helps making sense of all this. While the media coverage here in Germany is not bad at all, your analysis goes so much deeper and gives vital context to so many topics. I remember your video on Germany‘s military budget and procurement issues explaining it so much better than literally ANYONE in the German media. Keep doing what you do!
Lol you think biden could sit through a one hour intellegence brief?
Not a German, but Canadian. Very well said Phil!
Stay safe, stay sane, stay Strong Ukraine 🇺🇦
@@JohnDoe-gg6kc Mate, you must have a peanut for a brain if you think otherwise.
I agree with everything you just said, except for the Biden comparison. 😂 We all know that’s far far far from the truth. 😂
@@sqweege6432 and John Doe: So blind in your disdain for the other side that you completely miss that my comment was never about Joe Biden but the quality of the intel.
Pretty incredible, for someone not super into military matters the way they managed to capture the area without having to grind in urban combat was interesting
It is as they say. Logistics makes or breaks battles.
@@inteallsviktigt Also desire. It's not enough to put soldiers, guns and supplies into an area. They need to believe that they should be fighting and on a regular basis, dying. The Russians in Kherson no longer believed this and were forced to quit the city as a result.
@@ElTigre12024 Lucky? Maybe, but that counts too.
As the chapter of ukraine winds down, as a russian defeat is inevitable, what lessons do we take away from this? How will we think about russia, about modern warfare, and of the credibility of militaries in general? This will be a war to remember
@@Furyfrags
We already know how we will think of Russia.
A gas station pretending to be nation that full of degenerates.
I thought the corruption series was brilliant! I appreciated this video and the emphasis on how difficult and costly the Kherson campaign was and is. It's not done yet! Sometimes the commentariat under videos and articles forget that these are real humans fighting these wars, not CGI superheroes with oversized weapons and not enough clothes on, and that the "blood, toil, tears and sweat" (to quote Churchill) is all too real. This Kherson video did not suffer from your sick days. Get well soon! 🇬🇧 🫱🫲 🇺🇦
12:53 "Say what you will about Russian military intelligence, they did notice when Zelenskyy said he was going to attack Kherson."
This is a beautifully subtle line that deserves more love.
Major (veiled) snark
'The Gates of Mykolaiv' where that original Russian attack stalled has all the feel of a future movie to be made about the opening days of this terrible war. It seems to have been such a schwerpunkt.
Mariupol has the makings of a 21st centurt Brest Fortress like war movie...
@@theotherohlourdespadua1131 or as the Ukranian Alamo. Many countries have a batte as the definning moment where they truly went from a collection of people to a nation. In Mariupol, I think Russia lost all favor with the Russian-speaking Ukranians, making Ukraine one people, not two different peoples sharing a country.
I hope sabaton will honour that
@@carlcramer9269 Such battles are the forge of nations. See Bunker Hill for another US equivalent. Also, don't underestimate the effect that stubborn defense had on the push towards Mykolaiv and Odessa. In the end, Mariupol may well turn out to be a pyrrhic victory for the Russians.
I think, when this is over, quite a view filns about this war will be made, no matter how it ended (except in a case of a global nuclear holocaust, of cause).
After this war is over, a collection of stories from Zelensky’s security team would be great. I remember early into the 2022 offensives how Zelensky was out and about in Kyiv. I doubt we’ll get it right after the war ends, but hopefully in the decade after.
Early war must’ve been one hell of a stressful time for Zelenskyy and his security team, with all the allegations of attempted assassination, regularly visiting troops, being out and about in the capital that was close to attack. You could easily write a book on the first week alone
Great point. This guy gets around but I think he should not needlessly endanger himself. The country needs him to sort out the corruption after the war and get the funding necessary to get people back to work and rebuilt to a standard where they can survive better the next war. Those Russians are going to keep being a problem until their nuclear weapons are collected and accounted for.
How about a book by Zelensky himself?
@@kieranwalsh2058 Zelensky could have pulled a Ghani and fled Ukraine but stood his ground even when the odds appeared against him. That deserves mad respect.
There's a photo of Boris Johnson and Zelenskyy in Kyiv, I think it's from their first meeting, where you can pick their security teams in around them. Ukrainians are the serious-looking dudes in military-style outfits. British are the serious-looking dudes in suits with masks.
I'm a little late here, but I have something to add to everything said from the point of view of a humble participant. The campaign to liberate Kherson was the most tedious in my experience, but at the same time, we all did not have the nervousness that was in the defense of Kyiv and the breakthrough to Chernigov, not to mention the events of the past eight years. Everyone knew exactly what to do and did their job very well. And not only regular military personnel, but also volunteers, policemen and territorial defense. Everyone gains confidence when an ordinary accountant with an interval of forty minutes shot down two ka52s from a Soviet igla. However, achieving results was not easy. Speaking more specifically, the Russian defense itself was a multi-level fortified area not directly connected to each other. For example, in the tree line was the first line of defense, in which there were fighters of the so-called people's republics. This line was weakly fortified and had practically no anti-tank systems. Behind the first line in the next line of trees was the second line of defense, already with regular troops. This line was, as usual, better fortified, but nothing more. And then followed a fortified area connected by systems of trenches, sometimes even with concrete shelters for equipment. The purpose of such a defense was to delay the advancing troops as much as possible and to squeeze us between two or three such fortifications while their artillery and aircraft would grind us on the spot. The problem with this plan was that Russian artillery hit their own positions at least half the time, and aircraft, especially helicopters, bombarded us from a long distance with non-guided missiles. As for the attack aircraft, after the first losses, several impressive cases of friendly fire and the previous strike on the airport in Saki, it practically did not fly. However, this did not make the task any easier. The enemy still had more tanks and other armored vehicles, and in order to find weaknesses in the defense and clearly understand the system on which it was built, it was necessary to carry out rather risky local offensive operations. It seems that it was then that the Russians began to happily report that the offensive had failed, and the Ukrainian army had lost about 12-30% of all armored vehicles. Some even talked about 50%, as well as the loss of the entire fourteen brigade, which, by the way, was at the forefront in the Donbass at that time. The first line of defense was broken somewhere in the course of two weeks of systematic work. As a result of breakthroughs in several directions, part of the fortified areas were under the threat of encirclement and the Russians were forced to retreat. At first, the retreat even looked organized, but when our attack aircraft intervened, it turned into a flight. But even then it was not so simple. By that time, although having unfavorable logistical conditions, the Russians had transferred reinforcements and if our army had continued to advance further, it would have been stretched out over a large area and would have come under a powerful counterattack. Therefore, the new line of contact at that time was the settlement from Dutchny to Arkhangelske. Military experts (or those who like to call themselves that) expressed their confusion why our troops did not take advantage of the moment to immediately break into Kherson, but time showed that the decision to first strengthen new positions and then continue the offensive was correct. I think the last straw was not something specific, but a combination of all factors. In particular, it is worth noting the inability of fresh mobilized reinforcements to support the regular army and yet a softer attitude towards them than towards those who were recruited from Donetsk and Luhansk. The Russians apparently do not consider these so-called Lungandonians to be people at all, despite all the bravado statements that they came to protect them. Now the shelling of Kherson continues, but not massed and without specific targets. By the way, today there was already light in the city, after retreating Russians blew up substations. It will be a long time before normal life is restored, but nothing is impossible, especially for those who do not give up.
>Arkhangelske
Дещо смердить свинособачою
54:23 I hear a lot of people saying crap about Zelensky. For some reasons some Americans think he goaded Russia into invading. It’s a shame because if anything this war has proven him to be a dedicated leader of the Ukrainian people.
My man I have been following you since the beginning of the war now and I can safely say you're the only youtuber I genuinely check almost every week for updates. Keep up the amazing work.
On a sidenote I remember some "analysts" in my country calling out to the EU to admit that the kherson offensive was a failure literally 2 days before it got liberated lmao. All this on state TV.
likewise l hope no one falls into the same trap regarding future Russian operations. calling a major operation after two days is seldom a reasonable thing to do .
Of course, they had the integrity to admit they were wrong, right?
....right?
@@malcaniscsm5184 They were not wrong, they have been paid to be wrong....
Kings and Generals does some good monthly recaps, basically after a month has ended, wait 2 weeks and they've had enough time to sort things out. It allows them to clear a lot of the fog of war.
I also remember right after Kherson was retaken, Ukraine showed videos of soldiers crossing the river in boats to assault a kinburn... but we havn't heard much else, Russia has a big story about slaughtering hundreds of special forces before they could land, then after reports of fighting in a town there came out they claimed to have wiped them out, etc.
Honestly, it smells like snake island, an attempt by Ukraine to telegraph an attack to get Russia to deploy forces to a difficult to resupply area.
We won't know what happened there for a while and that is intentional.
which state?
Wake up, Baby. A new Perun video has been released
I already told her
Been spamming the refresh button. Perun never dissapoints😊
You need to be punished for this
"Hey..you, you're finally awake."
🙄
What’s insane is I started watching this channel a few months ago having no idea this was originally a gaming channel. I thought Perun was possibly ex Australian military or worked for some part of the DIB.
Cheers Perun, your content is absolutely amazing!
Not sure those two things are incompatible. In any case, a real talent like Perun can be good at multiple things.
Note that Perun _still_ does game videos on his other channel, PerunGamingAU. I can't even _imagine_ how he finds the time for all of this! And it's all great stuff, too.
He s freacking 28 he s no ex military lol
He works in the military procurement
@@vladraduandrei5227 Are you saying he is too young to have served in the military? My friend joined the US Army right out of high school when he was 18, served his contract and got out. Now he is a 23 year old veteran. 28 is definitely old enough to be ex military.
Can I just say that I don't care if Perun released one video per month, I'd still consider it one of the most in-depth analyses on youtube.
Just when I thought "damn, there's nothing to watch on TH-cam right now" Perun comes in CLUTCH.
What a guy.
Whenever the Grand Admiral of Powerpoints strikes is always a good day.
His back catalog is a goldmine...
Ukraine doesn't really exist. Ethnicities are all a social construct, made up i.e. don't exist. Migrations happen, peoples come and go. An immigrant is just a friend you don't know and they will do the jobs locals don't do. We all bleed red and we are all the same. Ukraine doesn't exist, let go of racism and hate towards new migrants and refugees
Can't wait to watch this later. TH-cam recommends me your videos literally minutes after they come out, you've really hit the jackpot with the algorithm somehow. Thanks for your content!
I really don't know what I did to deserve that particular algorithmic treatment - I'll just try to be worthy of it.
@@PerunAU as soon as I open my TH-cam app you were the first video on my homepage.
@@PerunAU You regulary put out 1 hour plus of engaging content, that acumulates crazy amounts of watch time. No one really knows how the algorithm works, but one thing is certain, watch time is one of the most important metrics.
@@PerunAU A lot of us put your videos on auto-notify, and interact with them before we even get a chance to watch them (i watch mine at 9-11pm pacific time but it's just after 5am right now), so you're probably benefitting from us doing this. Also it's right around 8am on the east coast, the majority of the US population lives, and is currently at or on their way to work, the perfect time to listen to this kind of content even if they don't watch the slideshow. Keep it up m8!
I suspect the algorithm chooses your vids to people who always immediately watch your vids immediately and completely on release
Strangling supply lines doesn't just mean a lack of weapons and such. It also means a lack of food, drinking water and medical supplies, which probably will have just as much of an impact on the performance as a shortage of military equipment. If you haven't had a decent meal in days, you just don't function well.
The more I hear, the more I realize how extroidaniarily brave the Ukrainians are. This is WWII again. This is what they mean when they say, freedom isn't free. Ukrainians have truly laid down their lives for freedom.
And only half of america supports them FFS when Americans constantly cry about “muh freedom”
For Russia is WWII, for Ukraine, its WWIII.
While Russia is using Old tactics and literally even older equipment... Every NATO General and analyst is writing down every new tactic Ukraine is developing...
Ukraine is fight hard, but also fighting very smart
"This is WWII again."
It totally is. One Ukrainian soldier (now dead in battle) was wearing a Roman Legion badge on their uniform. Many in Ukraine and in Europe see the Ukraine as the line of defense against the Eastern Savage horde. Poland and Slovakia (and the Baltics) are such great supporters of Ukraine because they have lived under "russian world" and they do not want that suffering ever again. Every place that was cursed with russian infestation and has become free does not want them to come back. The best propagandists to make you a 'russophobe' are russians own actions.
They've also laid down A LOT of Russian lives for freedom, too.
Please don't compare this war to WWII. WWII was on a totally different scale, with many millions of troops in the fight. The battle of Kursk alone involved over three million troops.
When this war is finally over, please keep making content like this about wars past and present. You're always fascinating to watch.
PERUN UNIVERSITY! If you're not halfway to being a millionaire, there's no justice in the world.
Second that motion wholeheartedly. This kind of impartial, level headed and detailed analysis is just what the world needs. And should be applied to a lot of other topics.
@@captainmaim Peruniversity?
@@Pincer88 This detailed analysis is what the military enthusiast community needs. Place is just too wracked up with myths and propaganda.
@@imgvillasrc1608 Exactly. I generally do not like the hyped up material. War is terrible of which all who've been in it and survived can attest. You won't see me cheering either when another Russian tank blows up, let alone when I see Ukrainian cities in ruins. War should be avoided at all cost. And the only way in my view is to be capable of fighting and winning them. Not as a matter of national pride, but out of determination and deterrence.
That's been my motivation as a military analyst and soldier years ago. It's not some exciting chess game. Just returned from a weekend in Ypres, Belgium where I visited the graveyards of hundreds of thousands of young men from the 1st World War. That's when it really hits home why war is to be avoided if at all possible.
One of the immutable laws of war is: Disrupt the enemy's logistics, and you disrupt and limit the enemy's ability to respond to attacks and maneuver.
Soldiers win battles. Logistics win wars.
@@johnsanko4136 I don't disagree, but Eisenhower said after WW2 that infantry wins wars- mainly because they're easier to deploy, cheaper to supply, and easiest to refit and rebuild. Infantry doesn't run out of fuel, and can be resupplied and reinforced by air. That said, logistics is why America wasn't able to destroy the communists in Vietnam- the countryside was terribly limiting to force buildup.
Keep supporting the fascists uuraa nazi
To subdue the enemy without fighting is the supreme excellence. Thus, what is of supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy's strategy. -SunTzu
@@captainmaim To oversimplify, in Vietnam, America lost the political will to win and eventually the national will to do so, even though the cause was justified.
The American military was not beaten on those battlefields despite some who spin any bloodshed as being the equivalent to a defeat.
General Giap himself, who spun the Communist victory into a claim of strategic brilliance was correct on one point, the one that mattered most, which is always the WILL, and not just the willof the fighting man, but the will of his fellow countrymen and allies.
Just a quick comment: If TH-cam has ever been put to better use then I have not seen it. Listening to your convincing, rational arguments spiced with actual wit provides a seat at the center of things. Thank you.
It is interesting that one of the best commentators on this horrendous war comes from a country as far as possible from the front lines. As a New Zealander I can appreciate that as we know how interconnected we all are and even being 10k kms away what happens in Ukraine matters to us all. How this will end will shape the global stage for years to come. I guess that is why it is so important content providers such as yourself make the confusing so much easier to understand. Please please please continue doing what you are doing - an admiring ANZAC fan
"even being 10k kms away " 16,500 km 10,400 miles NZ-Ukraine, shortest route not actual transport distance. Transporting vehicles by air to Ukraine...yeah I hope they sent a lot of spares as well because it is going to take a while to send a new widget.
As far as interconnected, if russia gets out in any way advantaged it will greatly increase the chance china will have a go.
Woke up early for naught but here it finally is.
Can't imagine what amount of work went into this so thanks a lot to Perun and team and don't worry too much about "late" releases
Funny enough, I think he’s said previously that this is a solo affair, he doesn’t have a team helping him
@@tristankahl6843 He mentioned an audio guy and subtitlers. Afaik, research and writing is a one man show which is immensely impressive I just wanted to also include the support roles
30:48 My wife explained the conversion of American military surplus into extremely strategically significant architectural remodeling: "Mechanical Engineers build weapons. Civil Engineers build targets."
What do Aerospace Engineers build?
@@Marinealver Delivery systems.
As always, a superb analysis. You are the gold standard for Military Analysis on YT. Before I leave...
Thank you for clarifying the "left bank/right bank river thing". I just couldn't understand why everyone wrote the right bank, when CLEARLY it was the left bank. But I viewed it from a map view.
Now I understand that if I'm in a BOAT floating down a river... with the current... that's the right bank, and that's the left bank. And, considering how SOME rivers twist, turn, and double back on themselves... it all makes sense now. Thanks! RipTide out.
Love this man. Level-headed and gives both sides of the story while knowing he doesn’t know everything. Keep it up.
Simply put the Ukrainians took on the very best that the Russians had to offer in terrain favourable for defence, without a 3:1 superiority that attackers like to have and they STILL beat the Russians. They were still able to force the Russians to retreat.
That is a fundamental truth of the Russian defeat. It bodes VERY badly for future Russian operations.
When the Russians let drunk Militias handle the Artillery while their few Elites are in the first defense line Putin eats shit!
I recommended your channel to my father, who doesn't speak English very well, and even he says that your presentations are clear and easy to follow! The background information you always give really helps with understanding the topic. I can't wait for the next presentation!
I see no decrease in quality. In fact this and the corruption video have been some of the most informative. Wishing you a speedy recovery.
Sorry to hear you're not well, hope you feel better soon! Honestly didn't notice, you're doing a fantastically professional job with your production. Take good care of yourself, and again, as always, thank you so much for your hard work and excellent quality video. Wonderful and informative as always.😊👍
Take care of yourself first. We really appreciate the work you do, but your continued ability to do that work in the long term is much more important than keeping to a strict upload schedule.
So thanks for another great video 😁 and take as much time as you need to recover from whatever difficulties you're facing ❤️
No bull*hit here… just a well thought out, well researched, and expertly presented snapshot of the ongoing conflict.
Oh come now. Were all adults, you can swear for real if you want.
@@highjumpstudios2384 😂 😆
I think this is the best video you’ve done so far. Just a wonderfully comprehensive and informative overview of a critically important campaign in the war. I think when this war is finished your videos, taken as a whole, will be the basis of an incredible history of this conflict.
I’m in awe, mate. How can you produce content of this quality week upon week? I sit riveted to the screen watching a PowerPoint presentation for an hour. Astonishing, thank you 🙏
I just now realized that every time i see an upload from you it instantly brightens up my day because i know that i have around an hour or well researched, well structured and well presented informations to enjoy
Thank you for your work
A modern history lesson. Nice work m8
Perun, I have no idea how you maintain the output and run a full time job. You are bloody brilliant, clever, diligent and knowledgeable. And we are the beneficiaries! Thanks a ton.
Time for our weekly 1hr PowerPoint presentation.
Thanks for the regular upload, greetings from Costa Rica!
These videos on the Ukraine war are the pivot point of my weekend -- an insightful, nuanced analysis of key elements in this conflict. If I just followed the news, I would get deeply depressed, but Perun's pieces, (along with Timothy Snyder's course on the history of Ukraine), allow me to maintain hope that Putin will not grind up millions of lives to rebuild Russia's glory and divert current affairs into confrontations of brute force and lies. This is a high stakes struggle, and we all need a framework to understand the convergence of forces and issues.
Interesting that both Snyder and Perun confirmed the meaning of "left bank" and "right bank" to their audience.
Beau of the fith column has some good coverage of the war.
In short the Russians lost back in April or May, the only thing that continuing this war is more deaths. All of the stated goals of the Russian government have failed, NATO is stronger, Finland and Sweden are in the process of joining.
Thanks for the recommendation!
I cannot begin to imagine how much work goes into digging through the available information in order to sift (an approximation of) the truth from, well, everything else. It is doubly impressive to do so while being unwell. With that said, I greatly appreciate your more zoomed-out overview whenever it comes out - so please, take good care of yourself first and foremost, even if that means we have to make do without a powerpoint presentation for a week!
As Perun had said in his first presentation, given the ukraine indominable fighting spirit, the only thing that really matters is how much support they get from outside. If they have the unrelenting support, victory for ukraine is really inevitable!
On a ship in the middle of the north atlantic, and nothing to do. Thanks Perun, you're the best. Love your stuff👌
What are you transporting mate?
@@bigkillerwhale1801 Myself and my car. It is the only ferry/cruise ship that operates the Denmark-Faroes-Iceland route. But it is a very nice ship nonetheless.
@@Cbr0749 You really embody the breadth of audience present here ❤
@@elektrotehnik94 Thank you. He really has a mature worldwide fanbase for sure. Love it when all the commenters behave like adults.
@@Cbr0749 Very much agreed
What has impressed me most in the conduct of the whole war is Ukraine's domination of the information battlespace. In the Kherson campaign Russia seems to have been repeatedly confused about Ukrainian aims.
seen images of trenches near that have had work done to them by the Russians the past month. so dont underestimate them.
The Ukr. have taken huge losses. wish this was over. poor boys on both sides paying the cost.
@@anthonyhowrard526 Sad little bot.
@@Matt_The_Hugenothaha truth 👍🏼
This happened in the Congo war as well. Corruption and bad moral leaves a military helpless before misinformation campaigns.
Getting new videos from you honestly makes my day. Even though as a Ukrainian I read an overwhelming amount of war-related information, your videos tie up and organize all the data in my head while also giving me an additional perspective.
Thank you very much! Get better soon.
P.S. Also, you kinda make me want to become an analyst, too, tbh :)
Still the best channel for all coverage of the war and occuring developments in Ukraine.
Impressive, methodical, Pedagogic and easy to follow while still in deph and complex.
Hope you get well soon, Perun! All your efforts are much appreciated. Clarity is never as important as in times of great uncertainty and strife, when powerful and malevolent people do their best to muddy the waters.
Ozdravi brzo i potpuno!
Greetings & Love from Slovenia ❤
It’s fun to remember that for Russia,
Forever is roughly 8 months
Or in the case of Lyman, three weeks...
I had no idea you were unwell. Take care of yourself. This video was typical Perun, accurate, detailed, and well thought through. Thank you.
Nothing I love better than Sunday breakfast with Perun. I was wondering what you could report a week after The battle ended . You did not disappoint taking a different approach and a different view and take. You make it real all these channels make it sound like Kerson was wondering without a shot being fired or a life lost. You brought the real facts of war to my living room. Thanks for another great video. I look forward to the next .
Just a small point: that bridge was not the structure that got the most "TNT" dropped on it, that would still be the Aioi bridge in Hiroshima - the USA used a nuke for it.
@@Mr_Grimbley
The size of nukes is measure in megatons of TNT, that’s why the OP put quoted around it. They meant it as a unit of explosive power, not the literal chemical compound.
You could argue that it doesn't count because in that case it didn't matter whether the bridge itself was damaged. It only happened to be a landmark that aided targeting. In Kherson the bridge itself was a target that mattered.
A good summary.
One point to add is the fall of Kherson makes holding Crimea a little more difficult due to its water supply coming under threat. Something I expect Ukraine will exploit as they seem to like making things expensive for the Russians.
I greatly appreciate your presentations on the war and other related topics. While I do actively follow the war in Ukraine from multiple sources yours tend to be some of the most coherent consolidations of information on the situation, and more often than not I learn new details or perspectives on the situation. The effort you put into these powerpoint presentations does shine through and if the powerpoint presentations I recieved in school had been anything like the ones you provide here once a week, I imagine my oppinion of them would have been significantly more positive than what it was.
How much more I would have learned…
Fantastic video as always. It is without question in my mind that the Kherson operation mattered, a lot. It is easy to imagine Putin in a bunker somewhere grinding his teeth at Kherson's loss. Politically it is a huge blow to perceptions of Russia internationally. If Russia can be defeated in Ukraine, it is going to have the CSTO nations in Central Asia questioning their geopolitical situation for example. But most importantly in my mind is the actual people of Kherson and getting them equipped for the upcoming winter with food, supplies, etc.
Genuinely the most succinct and detailed analyses on TH-cam. Amazing work as always.
ANOTHER WELL-RESEARCHED, FACTUALLY ACCURATE AND PAINSTAKINGLY IMPARTIAL POWERPOINT PRESENTATION, CAN MY DAY GET ANY BETTER
iknorite
Glad to see special Kherson cat getting credit, I think I followed his thread on the bridge religiously for literally months
Russia: We want a demilitarized Ukraine.
Also Russia: We are the number one contributor of military assets to Ukraine
Russia: "We don't want Ukraine to join NATO, so we're going to make them think the only way they can be safe is by being in NATO"
@@notvonbayern9202
So. Many. Memes
@@notvonbayern9202 winter war vibes.
These videos are the highlight of my week. So detailed and interesting, you really have found a niche and you fill it perfectly. Please do keep up the great work!
Two things:
1. I really enjoy your jokes you put in here and there :)
2. I really find your videos SUPER interesting but DESPITE THAT, for some reason I also find them particularly effective to help me fall asleep...
I know how this sounds like... I think it's more a statement on your calm and soothing voice than on the presentations. Please don't change them. They're amazing the way they are 🙏
Even if one could notice that you're not well, everybody would listen no matter what!
Thanks for your all work! Hope you soon get well!!!!
First, this was another excellent video. Thank you! Your weekly, thoughtful analysis and craft are greatly appreciated. Second, I had no idea you were feeling unwell until you said so at the end. Whatever you're doing to achieve your presentation, you're doing it well. Third, if you're unwell, you can absolutely take time away to recover. This war will probably still be here when you return.
Didn't even notice you were unwell until the ending card.
Get well soon Perun.
Came for the Terra Invicta lets play. Stayed for the Ukraine war analysis
Get well soon! Thanks as always for both your own hardwork and those who support you in continuing to produce such great content.
Great shout out to Kings and Generals, been watching their vids on Ukraine and their focus on battlefield movement pairs well with your videos that are often a bigger picture.
Playing the Halo theme in a Humvee gives a performance boost to the vehicle and crew, that's a fact
Like playing "Fortunate Son" in a helicopter. Even recon and transport helis sprout door-mounted miniguns and rocket pods
i thought it was initial D.......
@@davidty2006 Nah, you blast Initial D when you're dodging incoming missiles while drifting with an IFV
Thanks, man, Keep it up!
Great stuff as always Perun! Hope you feel better soon bud, and thank you for putting together such informative videos for us!
Beautifully hard headed logical analysis of what happened. All can be pieced together from various TH-cam snippets by any of us, but Perun puts it together - a reality check for us. What happens next? Agreed: fighting will not slack over winter, because both armies can handle winter, and Ukraine knows it should use it's momentum, and Russia knows that. I'm guessing Ukraine will now seek to throttle Crimea, and succeed.
I belive goal is to enter Crimea by the end of december. Ambitous, but not unrealistic
I’m wondering how much the Dnieper feeezes , as in how deep the ice gets and whether heavy vehicles could ever cross the ice as I know our lakes in NA have big trucks driving over them, but obviously armor is exponentially more expensive
@@jjcoola998 From what I’ve read of it, there is little to no chance that heavy vehicles can traverse it even in the deepest part of winter. Maybe half a century ago, but not now.
Infantry could cross, and maybe even light vehicles, but supplying them would be difficult. Still, a bridgehead could be established in this way, with it being protected with some M777 and maybe a HIMARS
Please don't burn yourself out Perun - missing a week or even two isn't the end of the world and I think we'd all happily wait if it meant you getting better in the long-term!
I’m still gonna watch it no matter what. Bloody best breakdown of anything I’ve seen yet of the conflict.
This may be outside of Perun's preferred scope, but I'm interested to learn more details and implications of Ukraine's transition from Soviet style of war to NATO. As they both transition equipment as well as doctrine through training and exercises with NATO forces. It's an interesting story IMO
@Philosophy_First Yea he has, and one of the reasons to learn more. Some specifics such what if any different reorganization, how equipment affects methods, specific doctrinal changes, command and rank responsibilities.
A bigger topic also addressed was AD, and how with NATO relying on Aviation for air dominance, there isn't as much GBAD equipment to help Ukraine and how is the issue of decreasing AD missile stock being addressed.
Ukraine doesn't really exist. Ethnicities are all a social construct, made up i.e. don't exist. Migrations happen, peoples come and go. An immigrant is just a friend you don't know and they will do the jobs locals don't do. We all bleed red and we are all the same. Ukraine doesn't exist, let go of racism and hate towards new migrants and refugees
@@joshc3466 Is this another attempt at absurd Russian propaganda? LOL. Ukraine is just being racist to not allow these Russian immigrants into their country. That's a new take, but a good laugh. Hopefully you not actually a moron, and know how absurd you sound.
Saw you are currently not feeling well. Hope its nothing too serious and wish you a good recovery. Congratulations on your great analysis and all the work you are putting into these videos. All the best and keep them coming! Thanks
It is not a late release - some of the fog of war has cleared, but earlier it really had not. Thank you, yours is the best analysis that is looking from a strategic point of view instead of move by move (which is also legitimate but those commentators can't step back as they are always running to keep up). Note: I'm sure those brave Ukrainian forces around Kherson knew that a large part of their job was to keep the Russians busy and cause them to use up all their supplies.
Even without your delightful sense of humor, this is magnificently informative. With your personal touch added in, I enjoy your videos so very much. I hope you feel better soon!
Take care of yourself. Dont push to hard. these are very nice to have weekly but we all understand this isn't your full time job, and you dont need to suffer for it. that said. these have become some of the videos i look forward to the most. this could be a running series on any PBS, BBC, public broadcasting medium, and would be well accepted. I think you have positioned yourself as a trusted source for future documentaries about this conflict. once the dust settles, there will be MANY MANY stories worth telling, i look forward to those you tell.
This channel is possibly the best social media content on the internet at the moment. 👍
Another top notch & comprehensive assessment anyone will struggle to find elsewhere on TH-cam. Thanks!
Ukraine: We wanna attack all fronts at the same time
NATO: We would advise against it or you will lose all your men
Ukraine: Ok then Kherson (and Kharkiv)
Russia: NATO is telling Ukraine to sacrifice all their men in Kherson!
Russian narrative is so ludicrous.
The single best slide show and narration since the beginning of PowerPoint. Cheers mate!
Thank you again! I never understood the right or left side of Dnipro river.
And please, keep up the excellent work! Huge fan from Norway here!
A genuinely educational, useful - and frankly inspiring presentation. Thank you for all the effort you put into these. I have been directing people to your channel whenever the relevent topics arise because I am not aware of a better resource.
Get well soon. Enjoyed this one (as usual). I'm kinda running out of variations to sing your praise but rest assured I for one think you're one of the best things to happen to the internet in recent times.
You are absolutely the best thing on youtube for providing a thorough analysis on a wide variety of subjects regarding this stupid war. It really is mine blowing the detail and care you put in each week. And you do it in such an absolutely entertaining way. I recommend you to everybody. I know you are mostly impartial but "Glory to Ukraine. Glory to its heroes."
I mean "mind blowing. " Never rely on spellcheck.
Get well soon Perun: we need you more than ever! Keep these brilliant analyses coming.
I think the Kherson campaign shouldn't be underestimated. The Kharkiv offensive could be considered a fluke, one enabled by Russia falling for what should have been a pretty obvious trick (publicly announcing an offensive is taking place in an area probably means it's not happening there). However the Kherson campaign shows that Ukraine can push Russia back and are also pretty flexible in their strategies (they've gone from misinformation and thunder runs, to using long range artillery to batter supply lines until Russian positions become untenable). And they seem to be making pretty efficient use of Western military aid
There is no such thing as luck or a fluke when it comes to an operation as big as the Kharkiv offensive. A given solider or unit might be lucky, once enough elements get together it averages out. The risk is so spread out that no one part is going to doom the plan.
If your plan relies on luck you have already failed as they have single points of failure. Homstal airport VDV air assault required luck, hoping that the Ukrainians didn't contest, rally or have strong units nearby. Market garden was Monty's giant dice roll with zero margin for failure, bordering on wishful.
It really is something to see an outgunned army without considerable numerical advantage attack fortified positions through an unfavorable terrain and win while suffering less casualties than the defenders.
They obviously lost more, becasue they tried to breakthrough like 10 times. Acting like Ukraine win with an offensive is just moronic. Even when they started the offensives, there were reports about entire battalions killed.
@@attilamarics3374
There were also reports of the Ukrainian army being destroyed five times over by mid-July.
@CipiRipi00 😮😮😮😮
30:48
“The world was essentially getting daily updates on American Military surplus being converted into extremely strategically significant architectural remodeling, half a world away.”
OMG!!! what an OUSTANDING sentence!
Your exceptional analysis is one thing, but your humor has me in stitches!
Appreciate the fantastic analysis as always. I always look forward to them every Sunday and you never disappoint. Hope you feel better soon.