Population Growth in Canada Could Fall by 75% Next Year
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 22 มี.ค. 2024
- The Federal government announces it will cut non permanent resident growth in Canada dramatically over the next few years, this could slow population growth to 300,000 by next year! OSFI has announced they will implement a loan to income cap next year, reducing leverage in the system. BC home flipping tax will exempt pre-sales.
Looking to buy or sell Real Estate in Vancouver? Book a 30-minute Real Estate Consultation with Steve here: calendly.com/stevesaretsky/30min
Subscribe To My Channel For More Videos Like This One: www.youtube.com/@saretsky?sub...
Listen to The Loonie Hour on your favourite podcast platform:
The Loonie Hour on Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/4vA4m1d...
The Loonie Hour on Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast...
#TheLoonieHour #Macroeconomics #PersonalFinanceCanada - บันเทิง
At this point even Argentina will attract more foreign investment than Canada. Heck, it's attracting Canadians themselves.
im Canadian and considering it because of the bc ndp exclusively.
@@roseoverdose6451 I am not so sure about Argentina yet.
its got me thinking where to move? you feel like your on a never ending hamster wheel not going anywhere if you are millennial in Canada. Love BC but even with a good job it feels like your going nowhere
The ultimate match, Argentina Vs Mexico
@@richchayI’m sorry that you asset poor
Anyone else feeling like we are headed towards a big recession in Canada
Well food lines tent cities pretty sure it’s already a depression for many.
Headed? We’ve been in one since last summers final cut
We have been in one, it's going to end soon with rate cuts and encouraging financial activities and foreign investment
I hope it is led by a decrease in property values. I say this as someone who purchased a home last October. If a comparable home in Vancouver fell by the purchase price of my house I still wouldn’t be able to afford it. The median price in my city was a bit more than 1/3 the Vancouver median but, for a suited SFH across from a city park I’ve been told it’d have been worth around $2M in Vancouver or Toronto, 5x what I paid. Sure I’d make more in a bigger city doing a comparable job but not 200-400% more as needed to justify the higher home prices.
I do believe Canada ought to have more economic development and population growth in areas willing and able to build but I also feel it is a shame that many Canadians raised in the GVR and GTA can’t afford to live near where they grew up.
Ideally I think prices ought to fall to 2019 levels, stabilize, and only increase in price up to 3% a year.
I lost my business about 8 months ago. Had to change career
They couldn't have done any of this BEFORE a 2bdrm condo cost $700,000????? Everyone saw this coming. There were people getting greedy and kicking the can down the road!
Foreign workers aren’t the ones buying up the condos
@@Observer168 no, but they do need places to live...
Politicians and their pals needed to cash out before changing the policy.
Government has destroyed everything.Canada will never come out of this
All those swinging policies really makes me think everything is rigged.
This is what happens
when govt interferes in the market.
It creates huge distortions that end up benefiting a select few
at the cost of the many.
The select few construct a narrative that it is in the national interest
that the govt open immigration floodgates or spend recklessly or keep housing prices inflated, keep taxes high.. etc as this is good policy.
But really they are just thinking about how they can profit.
Pundits and economists who promote these theories are injected into think tanks and govt.
But when the distortions start wrecking the economy as they are,
the govt quickly hits the reverse gear thinking it can salvage the situation
not realizing the damage has already been done.
Finally, the losses are offloaded onto the public to "save the economy".
Thus is the libcon shuffle,here we go again.
Immigration needs to drop by 3-400%
-397% it is! 🎉
Or even stop for a few years
many will just claim asylum and will be stuck here for many years. It will take a decade to process hundreds of thousands seeking asylum.
The Canadian education system is garbage
especially from only india and I say this as a 4th generation Indo Canadian myself.
It’s a start. What they need to do is raise the bar for PR and citizenship then make sure temporary foreign workers are show the door. Unless you are a doctor or healthcare professional or a trades person you cannot stay and no free healthcare or handouts. Kick out the international students studying hospitality etc
Exactly!!! You hit the nail right on its head!
Who will serve you at Tim Hortons or McDonald’s?
I don't go to either but there certainly are a lot of both franchises - maybe we need less and that too will help our healthcare system @@Observer168
@@Observer168 17 year old kids
@@fofal most kids these days don’t want to work. They want to be TH-camrs
you must heard the saying "this horse left the barn", all new policies are very late to fix huge real estate bubble, just putting lipstick hoping to win votes in next election, if any change it'll take years to bring back some financial sanity
Turdo breaks something and then fixes what he has broken.
The LibCon shuffle. A Trudeau destroys it and the next 10/15 years we dig ourselves out.
But this time we have a greater problem the vultures in the UN and the mega rich want to pick your bones.
Make it more affordable for young Canadians to have families and raise children! We have driven ourselves into extinction but thats ok as long as there is a foreign labour force that can generate high yields and returns 🙄
Nothing will change. Young people have to save up and leave. Let the immigrants and boomers pay for their own pensions. You can't start a stable family renting or you will eventually lose your family and be known as a d3@db3@+ father. The best option is for young people to save up and leave.
@@sherdonforbes3480 and go where? You need to fight for your country and community! We lost what it meant to be Canadian because any whisper of patriotism is labeled as some far right nationalistic decree. You think the rest of the world will welcome you as their own? It saddens me to know that we have been made to become benign in our views of this nation. It's not the fault of "boomers"... It's the fault of power peddlers.
@@MrSilver2nd
if you are voting the same 3 parties owned by the klep.tocracy
back in power every election,
you are part of the problem
and have no right to complain.
@@MrSilver2nd Hello, there are plenty of places to especially if you speak another language besides English. Fight for our country and community, that would be true only if previous generations and gov did they same. The truth is we value high home prices over our own youths lives. We import people to keep wages low and home prices high and to pay for pensions. Now where is care for the prosperity of future generations in those actions? Please tell me. As someone who does carpentry and flooring for a living we have groups of young skilled tradesmen who get each other side jobs to save up and leave the nation. No point in paying taxes or building homes you'll never be able to afford. Great conversation if you like to continue just reply if not take care and may you have a prosperous day.
@@sherdonforbes3480 if you are a Canadian and have given up on Canada and have simply written it off as the fault of "previous generations and governments" then good luck where ever you decide to go. If you are Canadian and do not know about the efforts of previous generations and what they have done as best as they could understand for the future of their children and communities in Canada then the Canadian educational system has failed you in that. Do you think political dog and pony shows are a recent phenomenon that have been targeted and only afflicted younger generations of Canadians? Have you served in the Canadian armed forces? Buried a friend and made false promises by the government while you try to get a job and hold it with PTSD? Go to Sunnybrook Hospital and see the few veterans remaining of many that are battling day by day through these challenges (some as far back as WWI). Then think twice before asserting that previous generations didn't fight for you. We were lied to in the past and are being lied to today. If you have a better developed BS radar then use it to help your community. If you want to throw up your hands and respond with an umbrella assertion that there are plenty of places especially if you speak another language other than English then good luck. The self serving philosophies are what got us here not the previous generations. Do you think GenXers are going to reap some benefit of you paying into a pension? How many GenXers do you think will receive a pension? Do you know how much that pension will be? Do you think that pension will cover the cost of living for GenXers that have built homes, installed cables and sewers, built roads, maintained the infrastructure lost limbs and are in line at the food banks? Younger generations have it tough as well but they are not special cases. I'm not at fault for your challenges when I was lied to as well... But if you want to go then Godspeed and good luck 👍
So they say... they lie all the time.
500k permanent residents are already too many. Less than a decade ago, the cap was 200-250k. This policy of having a big Canadian population of 100M by the end of the century is crazy. It’s contradictory to their policies of less consumption and being green. They don’t even want to develop the green land around Toronto, so why bring so many people?
Lots of information this week! Thanks for all the updates, Steve.
35 years too late
Long time listener w. Both of your podcasts!! Thank you for all your shared info and commentary. Really enjoy it. Cheers
Btw if cost of living is so high for Canadians how many of these new immigrants will be able to survive? Many will rely on support from the government. People already living here will continue to be taxed and buried in debt and eventually just the healthcare costs alone will be billions more - incurred by a population malnourished and under a high level of never ending stress just to have shelter and food and transportation.
Exactly. These bottom feeders take up all the resources and don’t contribute equally. The only winners are the corporate overlords who get cheap labor and can afford flying out of country for surgery and healthcare.
They will survive. You will pay for it.
And our food supply is under attack by the climate terrorists. Farmers have been shouting from the streets but get no play from the media.
Canada?
Has been destroyed forever
They live 10 to an apartment. Or 3 families to a townhouse. But yes they are a bit of a burden because they use up services. But colleges are making a killing with foreign students. Trudeau’s education minister has been getting kickbacks
Great episode, I definitely use your/looney hour information to assist me in making important decisions. Keep up the good work!!
Excellent insights Steve
Great video, thanks Steve!
Thanks for the information
Rates wont matter when the buying power of fiat currencies around the world are tanking. Gold and Silver are the only real money, everthing else is credit.
How is bitcoin, credit?
First, there currently exists no commonly accepted valuation model for Bitcoin. Second, unlike precious metals, highly volatile Bitcoin has no history of being accepted as money and it lacks any time-tested store of value credentials (accepted intrinsic worth), both of which are key currency attributes
@@intrinsicfactor5425 How is bitcoin credit?
Gold and Silver produce nothing and are no different than bitcoin. There value is not defined by how they are used in computers either.
@@intrinsicfactor5425 You didn’t answer my question.
Hi Steve. Just wanted to say how I appreciate the content you put out, including the Loonie Hour. It was great to get more insight into you in Tom Karadza’s interview. Wishing you well.
Not a chance they kick them out.. They will just make them permanent residence.
Learn how to spell why don't you?
I have 80% + equity in my condo and my bank manger told me this week that equity does not count any more for a refinance. No problem though, just unexpected.
So they won’t refinance ?
@@davidrockefeller2007 I mentioned - all ok
I'm guessing they refinance based on your ability to pay.
Your income.
@@user-vi8ci2bi6b Oh ya. Still surprised about it all. Think about the size of the down payment in my mind🤣🤣🤣. In near tears now
If you are not in the financial market space right now, you are making a huge mistake. I understand that it could be due to ignorance, but if you want to make your money work for you...prevent inflation
People dont understand that the prices of things are never going back down. This inflation is deeper than we think. Those buying groceries are well aware that the real inflation is much over 10%. The increments dont match our income, yet certain investors still earn over $365,000 in stocks and assets. Wish I could accomplish that.
Very possible! especially at this moment. Profits can be made in many different ways, but such intricate transactions should only be handled by seasoned market professionals.
Finding yourself a good broker is as same as finding a good wife, which you go less stress, you get just enough with so much little effort at things
Brian demonstrates an excellent understanding of market trends, making well informed decisions that leads to consistent profit
I'm surprised that you just mentioned and recommend Mr Brian Nelson. I met him at a conference in 2018 and we have been working together ever since.
Steve you’re on fire buddy I saw you on rock star real estate podcast and you blow those guys away and you been in the game for far less time . Keep winning
OSFI rule of 4.5 times income does not apply to those paying home insurance because they are putting less than 20 percent
This is a critical piece of info!
Arbitrary immigration targets are simultaneously increasing demand and suppressing wage growth. There are better ways to control immigration. I would suggest demand based approach with some guard rails in place. For instance, I would require all educational institutions to provide housing for international student (at least 50%). Businesses should be required to provide accommodation to all temporary/seasonal workers on top of the minimum wage. In order to hire foreigners employers should be required to prove that they are paying enough to afford housing in the region (market cost of accommodation is less than 30% of salary). Accommodation for refugees should be secured before bringing them to the country from around the globe. No accommodation = no permits. It would limit demand and prevent wage suppression.
but it would re inflate the housing market which is what they dont want to do when they re close to getting inflation down
@@vaneh6982 , why do you think so?
first thing i'd ask businesses
is why they cannot do the same
for existing Canadians.
@@mth469, because currently they have endless pool of newcomers.
In order to provide housing for all the immigrants you have mentioned, housing will have to be sourced from the existing housing supply. New housing can not be created from thin air.
They are leaving now anyways, there's no good jobs and rent is too high
You are right. Government just trying to spin what's already happening.
This is why open borders wont work. If you have it good, it wont be good for long. People will flock like locusts from around the world to each good place and ruin it for the locals.
@@gormenfreeman499
be the locust 🐛
Even Canadian citizens are leaving, this is unsustainable. No everyone wants to have a 30 year + mortgage on an overvalued property and die trying to pay it off.
Do it. 4.5x is already ridiculous. Set it at 3x maximum and crash this freakshow of a bubble
Every time i see a headline these days I think "Is this the black swan event that crashes the housing market?"
many will just claim asylum and will be stuck here for many years. It will take a decade to process hundreds of thousands seeking asylum.
A few years too late, and finally a policy that makes sense
its pre-election gimmicks...........
@@mth469 Funny isn't it, when Maxime Bernier proposed a reduction in immigration he was labeled racist, now when liberals implement it it's considered responsible. What a joke this country is
We still need to rebuild our surplus of homes so slowing down immigration won't have an immediate effect. It'll take a number of years to see it's impact on housing rates.
There is no housing shortage. Investors speculators bought all the supply at 0% rates. All these gov measures like airbnb, interest rate hikes, inflation, higher taxes will have them selling soon. Then panic will set in
@@DJRS2178 what??
There is one housing unit for every 2 1/2 Canadians.
There are currently 1.2 million empty units.
@@user-vi8ci2bi6b Over a million empty homes? Wouldn’t the government be collecting billions in empty homes tax?
Vancouver imposed a vacant home tax in 2017 and Toronto is doing the same this year. But the vacant tax in Vancouver has not netted tens of thousands of empty properties. A similar outcome is expected in Toronto, where the local government expects to find 6,500 to 9,600 vacant dwellings, though some or many would qualify for an exemption from the vacant home tax.
@@Observer168
The empty homes tax is a joke.
I know of so many ways around it.
Put the name of any Canadian citizen on the dotted line.
Lots of people in Richmond have Burnaby condos as their principal residence.
Also the number possibly included airbnb.
Jon Flynn did a show about the empty homes about 2 months ago.
You should be able to find it on TH-cam.
So we are basically going back to 2015 levels of immigration, just with a larger population than we had. Housing was still unaffordable back then and good rentals where still hard to find ….I know this is big news but it feels like a bandaid on a fatal gun wound.
Much like our completely unsustainable government debt, fate has been sealed with the rapid population growth that has already taken place
Just stop immigration unless real professional,nurses , Doctors that can get license here to practice
why real professionals should have their wages suppressed?
why should anyone have their wages suppressed.
lets import temporary foreign politicians and CEOs.
Canadian's young generation will never get a job.Stop immigration is destroying Canada.Government should be locked up
For the new OSFI policy, the 4.5 ratio cap is only for a standalone mortgage application right? Meaning people can still get multiple times of their income combined as long as each mortgage is below 4.5 times of the income.
lol
Nope. It's an all mortgages to income ratio. That's why it's a game changer.
OSFI said that it Jay implemented next year , then he t will boast Vancouver and Toronto market crazy this year. They will get buy and buy . It is crazy .
@@Jo-mf2vuno.
That’s not how it works, they look at all your outstanding debt and income.
Canada doesn't simply need housing for NEWCOMERS, it needs housing for those who are ALREADY HERE
Could this also be a policy that fast tracks non-permanent residents to permanent residency and or citizenship in a manner different than status quo? It does seem like the liberals need more votes and maybe can find some this way. Maybe I’m cynical but curious for your thoughts on this one.
Permanent resident cap is 500k. That hasn’t changed
I like your content but I disagree with you on outflows of temporary residents. If we just stop adding and many of these temporary residents become permanent/citizens then the numbers go down without any outflows. I think that's much more likely.
I'm interested to know what you and B Rabidoux think... will these new targets + continuing to build at this rate result is rent price stability? Slower increase? Decrease?
If that’s the case then you still land on 300,000 population growth as there is a hard cap on permanent residents
Great analysis like always. I think the only point you failed to consider is that the existing temporary foreign workers don't have to leave. Most of these workers come here with the intention of becoming permanent residents. So, in order to meet the PR target of 500k per year, the government cab invite qualified TFWs to apply for PR.
They would have to be accepted for consideration of obtaining PR.
Or their work permit wouldn't be renewed.
Most will just claim asylum and be stuck here for another 5 years
Jack interest rates to 12 % and slow the market down
why is central banking / govt running the economy
as if they were Soviet Central Planners.
price fixing (fixing interest rates) and counterfeiting (printing money)
creates huge distortions that enrich a few friends and cronies
who sit close to the central bank
while damaging most others in an economy.
The damage has been done at this point
Indeed. Just like the government debt
geeee ya think! Its like once the house is charred and burnt to the ground, you say...oh damage has been done at this point. Brilliant.
@@yourmainful thanks for your insightful response, your deep analysis has really opened my eyes to some thing new
Bring it down to zero and guess what, some disabled Canadians will find a job
20% or 20% of the profits (appreciated value above purchase price)
That’s a big difference!!
A common Canadian is extremely under informed. Immigration needs to halt period
Funny isn't it, when Maxime Bernier proposed a reduction in immigration he was labeled racist, now when liberals implement it it's considered responsible. What a joke this country is
extremely misinformed underinformed and delusional. This is a horrible for our society.
Okay so if I I have pre-sold condo. The assignment date is when the two year clock starts?
Less demand and financing for new builds!
If I buy a 1960s original bungalow in BC and I'm going to be charged a flipping tax In addition to paying income if this is my primary source?
Sounds like newcomers and young couples will have to become general contractors themselves because a lot less people will be buying original 60s and '70s bungalows and updating them. Good luck finding a contractor that won't rip you off or that will do quality work.
So on paper you have cheaper houses but How many young couples want to buy a fixer-upper and live through a Reno... Hopefully your marriage will stay intact
Unintended consequences writ large.
Lag effect will still be 5 years. Housing goes up until then.
not if the bottom falls out of the economy first.
Hahaha you have no clue. Housing cycle is over and soon the stock market and crypto will be crashing in tandem with the housing market as we enter a period of deflation.
This will all begin shortly afyer they finally decide to start dropping rates, indicating a recession is here. They will plaster it all.over the news. Panic and anxiety will set in.
Anyone that has been paying attention should have already noticed we are in a recession now. Insolvencies are way up, debt levels all.time highs, unemployment jumping, AI taking jobs. Small businesses folding.
Already down 20%+ from peak in only two years
The sky is falling!
You have no idea what "certain amount allowed" is. It could be 5% . And again, 100,000 are resetting evey month well past the 7:1 which means the amount of over leveraged owners is rapidly increasing every single week. On the books of the banks.
OFSI mapped out reality. Not "rates may fall" nonsense. And when they did it shows the loan loss provisions rising exponentially. And asset prices tanking. Expect to see banks not renewing mortgages that are 7:1
It seems unlikely we will have less immigration.
You actually have to read the fine print on all of these announcements.
Their international student cap of 360k per year - is 1.4 million students over a typical 4 year degree. That is far more international students than we have now.
Equally their “freeze” on immigration meant they were just keeping existing targets / which more people every year going forward.
You’d do yourself a favour by understanding what they are actually doing, instead of what they are marketing themselves as doing. They rarely align.
Your right.
It's the no post graduate work permits unless they fill a need of the country. This will deter them from coming to go to school for 2 years just to obtain PR status.
Being homeless and still work your ass off is the only way to get ahead in Canada right now.
Many businesses took advantage of the foreign workers' program. While it has affected wages to stay lower in some areas, the program was vastly abused and resulted in a wider gap between the rich and the working class. Also resulted in too many foreign workers in the country. The right move but with some consequences in RE.
It’s mostly low wage jobs that the locals don’t want to do. All the fast food restaurants are staffed by mostly foreign workers.
@@Observer168
no its not.
its been jobs all across the spectrum.
effectively its nothing more than a wage suppression scheme even as money was printed to keep the housing pyramid scheme going as well as inflating.
Doubt house prices fall in toronto. Still getting 5-10 bids on million dollar dumps
You couldn't pay me to live in Toronto. It's getting to be San Francisco level bad. Maybe worse.
Things will get tougher and tougher and tougher
@@ryanonline4817Immigration is brought in massive crime.Doug Ford is gon to build a massive jail for the government.And don't forget the snake at the top
Canada needs to go back to 30 million people. In previous decades things were much better.
If you thing someone who clears 6k a month and has a mortgage payment of 3k and is resetting with a $4,500 payment - and the bank is not going to say anything, you deserve to lose your house.
Denial is not a strategy and is not dooms day. Nobody should have got 7:1. And you ain't getting grandfathered in either.
That's what they're doing though, with no stress test on renewal.
As long as the foreclosure isn't on this year's books.
There kicking the can down the road in order to keep their profits high.
@@user-vi8ci2bi6b why should there be a stress at renewal if the home owner is able to make the monthly payments? You go into foreclosure once you stop paying anyway.
@@Observer168
Not saying there should be.
Just saying paying 75% of income is quite obviously a recipe for disaster.
One little blip and your done.
And the bank knows it.
@@user-vi8ci2bi6blike I already said, they go into foreclosure automatically once they stop making the monthly payments for the mortgage so it’s pointless to be stress tested again. It just adds a ton of useless paperwork.
The banks don’t have the manpower or resources to stress test the millions of mortgages that go up for renewal every year. It’s a ton of paperwork for nothing since the house automatically goes into foreclosure when you stop making the monthly payments. The bank takes the home if you stop paying.
@Steve That's a clear indication for the following:
1, real estate investors future? Less than 2023, for sure.
2, real estate prices going up next years, year over year? Most probably flat, I would say going lower a bit.
3. Ontario and especially Toronto real estate markets should suffer more.
4.We are going to see a flood, I mean a flood of listings in Ontario, especially in GTA Ontario and surroudings where builders built investors purpose built only real estate properties. We are covering more than 20 cities in Ontario, unheard in Canada. We can predict way much faster, what's happening in the GTA real estate market than any other real estate team.
5. Looking to get a condo in Toronto? My today client for Toronto, has 92 condos on his budget, perfectly fine, as per his very high requirements, including price. What this means?
6. The name of the game in 2024 and 2025 is on the listing side. We are going to get a very busy listing season. Talking about GTA Ontario and everything included in between Niagara Falls - London - Kitchener - Burlington - Toronto - Oshawa - Kingston - Vaughan - Barrie - (Muskoka - Algonquin - Bancroft cottage locations). I am selling and buying in every city. Selling in the right window will be crucial for any listing agent.
Need More? :)
If Canada and Europe low the interest rates, the American dollar will be boost and will be affect the Canada dollar and the Euro too.
When the federal government takes a shit, that a minor policy change
Where are the immigration bros who thought immigration numbers are set in stone? They said real estate will always go up because immigration
Now kick out the ones that came in the last 3 years
Who you serve you coffee and donuts at Tim Hortons?
You can bet all the insiders have dumped their spec properties.
yah that's a hint
Is there a way to find this out?
@@treaty8631there would be a huge jump in inventory if that happened which is not the case
no they have not... go on mls, do some research before talking...
Are some of these non pr construction workers? If Canada kick them out, it will also impact the new construction. So we get less people in Canada but also less new houses? Does that off set each other?
you dont get less new construction, it just forces them to pay fair wages instead which is what we want
@@vaneh6982
yup.
The "shortage of skills" and "shortage of labour" claims
were just a load of BS
to suppress wages of Canadian workers.
The 3 parties in power went along with it
and even promoted the lie.
Still electing the 3 back to power every election?
If so, you are part of the problem.
We are not taking in 2 million people per year lol...Last years permanent resident immigration totaled around 480 000 the rest were students. Next year the target is 500 000 and will not change, but the student policy will change.
Lower Canadian rates means more Canadian dollars sold for US dollars to purchase higher interest bonds there. Which will cause C$ to drop further. Which will make that profit on those bonds sweeter. Which will cause more Canadian money to go south of the border.
Good for those investors. Good for Canadian exporters. But it will cause a shortage of capital in Canada which will raise interest rates to reverse those rates cuts made now.
Buddy. The base effect of rent and mortgage increases is gone. Read the data
Excellent video Steve. You are right. Immigration is the single most important factor to watch moving forward.
i cant wait for Ben next week
Recession, immigration cuts, and unemployment. Exactly like in the 70s and 80s.
I think everyone in B.C, doctors, lawyer, clinician, nurse, police, teller, sales person at the gap, employee at 7-11, carpenter, laborer, engineer, EVERYONE needs to be come a Realtor in B.C like most already have. Real estate in BC and Ontario.. Almost everyone I know has a license..
and this is even before presumably pierre becomes new PM. BTW, do the real estate promoters ever mention the possibility of outward migration of recent arrivals who realize they've been hoodwinked?
The other thing they could do and will probably do is convert a lot more non permanent to permanent residence
The comment about the horse has already escaped thru the open barn door is right on. Even if they completely stopped immigration, it will take many years to catch up with housing.
Every business cycle builders overbuild and go bankrupt. Same old story.
I like your analysis Steve- but it seems you don't connect the dots. Government should not be involved in any way in the freemarket. Policies always have trade-offs. We need to get the govenment out of the way completely from the freemarket, this will be the only way to stop all the distortions that are happening.
So I disagree that we have to get the amount of non-permanent residence living in Canada down I think what you might be missing. Here is all they have to do is slow down letting more non-permanent residence in and keep their portion of immigrants higher and overtime it solves itself, you end up with a lower percentage of non-permanent residence, a higher percentage of newer immigrants, and overall a higher population
Dude... They're just going to call "non-permanent residents" new Canadians.
Permanent resident cap is 500k
Nothing will actually change. It’s dirty politics by Trudeau. He wanna do this all for getting re elected in 2025. If he get re elected he’s gonna change it and maybe increase it to 1.5 million per year
@@saretskywhat about the million+ illegals continuing to grow in number with this obscene level of mismanaged immigration and fake students here for PR
always have.
You’re not paying attention bud.
It should be 100%.
What’s surprising is that NPR s are getting realtor licenses 😮 what if they scam and run away hiw can RECO allow this. I thought u gotta have to be permanent status or citizenship for these services
This is a good thing, though........
Wise policy choices by the government and regulators. That doesn't sound right ;)
Housing would be out of speculation it is a basic thing in a developed democratic country. Politicians are taking actions form left and right. Because it is out of control.
taking action like picking their ass...
I'll believe it when I see it
I think the non permanent residents will just apply and become citizens. Trying to tell them to leave will result in demonstrations against that policy.
What country replaces their own ethnic founders except canada? Did japan or turkey? Or saudi
Arabia or china or india or vietnam or phillipines do this?
This guy does not know what he's talking about. Population growth is certainly not going to fall to that number. Just as a base, we'll be taking in 500k immigrants. We can also expect another 150k (refugees). So right off the bat that's 650k, not 350k like he says. We are not going to ask any permanent residents to leave, either, nor has the government suggested it would do any such thing. We will continue to bring in over one million foreign workers and over 700k foreign students.
Too late. Doom loop ... just ahead.
I agree entirely. About 5-7 years ago, it was still fixable, now I would say the chances are zero.
Tbh we can’t afford to take any new immigrants until the cost of rent, housing, food and taxes is reduced. We don’t have money right now even for refugees. And until we accept that people across Canada will slowly descend into poverty.
No one's gonna be front running shit. The numbers don't work anymore ! Shits hitting the fan but in slow motion 😂
Canada is in trouble.Only the rich can survive
With these new policies we'll see real estate prices drop like a lead balloon 🎈
i doubt it.
the entire policy is to keep real estate supply restricted through all kinds of means
and immigration high
to keep real estate prices up.
the collapse will be triggered by some other source,
likely something external like a Lehman Bros moment.
Easy way around BC flipping tax: Get a job elsewhere and then say that you are moving for a job.
Try anything, any day, whatever anyone wants, it will just not wotkout.
Sweet! Maybe I won’t be homeless next year 🥳
The big CRASH is finally here
my ass it is....go to mls....average house purchased 10 years ago...in bc for 800k relisted for 2,579,000 zero renos..that is a a 1,800,000 tax free gain 10 years. That will take a working educated proffesional in Canada 100 years of workign day in day out ..Buddy just bought a house with 150k down....yay...Canada is disgusting...I think everyone lawyers, judges, police, doctors, clinicians, everyone needs to become a realtor in B.C...As many already have.
Let's watch Steve a year from now become an immigration bull once the market crashes without all the foreign capital
The American government and Federal Reserve will never admit to how badly Paul Volcker messed up and created one of the worst recessions in US history.
Paul Volcker's tenure as chairman of the Federal Reserve coincided with one of the most severe recessions in U.S. history, often referred to as the "Volcker recession." This recession occurred in the early 1980s and was characterized by high unemployment, double-digit inflation, and a significant contraction in economic activity. The recession was largely a result of Volcker's policies to combat inflation, which included raising interest rates to historically high levels. While these policies were successful in ultimately reducing inflation, they also contributed to one of the largest economic downturns in US history and widespread job losses during this period with millions of jobs lost and tens of thousands of business failures.
The analogy "Volcker brought a machine gun to a knife fight" captures the aggressive and decisive nature of Paul Volcker's approach to combating inflation. By raising interest rates to unprecedented levels and implementing tight monetary policies, Volcker employed forceful measures to address the rampant inflation of the late 1970s and early 1980s. This metaphor suggests that Volcker's actions were overpowering and disproportionate to the economic challenges at hand.
The exact number of job losses directly attributable to Paul Volcker's policies during the early 1980s recession is difficult to quantify precisely. However, during that period, millions of jobs were lost across various sectors of the economy due to the combination of high interest rates, reduced consumer spending, and declining business investment. The severity of the recession led to significant layoffs and increased unemployment rates, impacting workers and industries nationwide.
During the 1970s and early 1980s, Volcker's policies aimed to combat inflation, including raising interest rates, which had significant implications for financial institutions like savings and loans. The high interest rate environment increased borrowing costs for Banks, which traditionally operated by taking in deposits at lower rates and lending those funds out at higher rates, primarily in the form of long-term fixed-rate mortgages.
As interest rates rose sharply, Banks faced challenges in maintaining profitability and managing their balance sheets. Additionally, deregulatory measures in the 1980s, such as the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act (1980) and the Garn-St. Germain Depository Institutions Act (1982), allowed Banks to engage in riskier lending practices and expand their activities beyond traditional mortgage lending.
These factors, combined with a weakening real estate market and lax oversight, set the stage for the banking crisis that erupted in the late 1980s. While Paul Volcker's policies and actions as Federal Reserve Chairman were not the sole cause of the crisis, they contributed to the economic conditions and regulatory environment that ultimately played a role in its emergence.
Pay your rent landlord is not your parents 😒
Housing still need to drop by 50% for young people and first time home buyers
more like 80% in cities.
I was looking at Revelstoke, town in BC, was shocked to see prices outside of city that high. Even in the towns no-one cant afford. its insane. I was thinking unlesss yo uhad a senior job at CN rail you can afford. everyone else there is screwed@@mth469
The young generation and the medium class is gonna be wiped out.Immigration has destroyed everything they come first over Canadians.I hope doug ford builds a massive deal for the government
The assumption that when the economy slows down and less jobs are there, non permanent residents will leave is very naive. Who is going to enforce the law to make sure they leave. Those current non permanent residents will stay and become illegal and continue to live in Canada. We do not have enough manpower to enforce the new laws. Look at what has been happening in the US, the number illegals in the country. The majority of these non permanent residents are here with hope to become permanent residents. They are not just going to leave and head home when the law changes.
You’re absolutely right, many will just claim asylum and will be stuck here for many years. It will take a decade to process hundreds of thousands seeking asylum.
Horny for housing idea needs to change in Canada. People need to start actual businesses rather than everyone and their dog trying to be being a rental landlord.
i Saw a neighborhood small Mechanic shop in East Van. Listed for 3.8 mil. would be 750k down payments with 23k Monthly mortgage payment. 2 car lifts in shop. Guy probably had 1 other mechanic with him.
now imagine taking the load of that and what you have to charge to stay afloat. its crazy. I would have so much anxiety i wouldn't be able to sleep at night knowing i might not be able to operate next month.
so the only way it works if a investor group gobbles it up builds a duplex and rents. its quite sad honestly
Lets understand, we need a large lump sum of humans to pay for our current population needs in the future 10 to 35 years from now....else we have DEGROWTH, and population collaspe.....you know....Japan !
Investors are gping get hurt.
> It's gonna be intersting
If you're a professional with skills just leave Canada
Or stay and see the "interesting" outcome while you, your wife and your kids live with effectively no healthcare.