fear a housing crash due to people buying homes above asking prices with little equity. If prices drop, affordability and potential foreclosures may arise, worsened by future layoffs and rising living costs. I want to invest more than $300k, but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk.
Consider reallocating from real estate to other reliable investments like stock, crypto or precious metals . Severe recessions offer market buying opportunities with caution, as volatility can yield short-term trading prospects. Not financial advice, but it may be wise to invest, as cash isn't ideal in this period.
I've been in touch with a financial advisor ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
My CFA ’Margaret Johnson Arndt’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thank you for this tip. it was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
The fact that there is already an excessive amount of demand awaiting its absorption, despite how everyone is frightened and calling the crash, is another reason why it is less likely to occur that way. 2008 saw no one, at least not the broad public, making this forecast, as I'll explain below. The ownership rate was noted to have peaked in 2004 in the other comment. Having previously peaked in the second quarter of 2020, we are currently at the median level. Between 2008 and 2012, it dropped by 3%, and by the second quarter of 2020, it had dropped from 68 to 65.
You're not doing anything wrong; the problem is that you don't have the knowledge needed to succeed in a challenging market. Only highly qualified professionals who had to experience the 2008 financial crisis could hope to earn a high salary in these challenging conditions.
@@hasede-lg9hj Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful.
Actually, I'm not sure if I'm allowed to mention this, but I'd recommend looking up Sharon Ann Meny because she was a big deal in 2020. She manages my portfolio and serves as both my coach and my manager.
Finding financial advisors like Sharon Ann Meny who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
@@hasede-lg9hj Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
The problem with mass density in Canada is they don’t build family sized condos… which is why most families live in houses or townhomes. Look to S Korea. Their condos are all built for families. Huge with lots of rooms for families.
And then the same people who don’t want government intervention in anything also complain about immigration and that nobody has families anymore. Like if you hate immigration and want people to have families you need government intervention to make sure that the private sector creates conditions so that families can exist and we can have a replacement level fertility rate.
And 26,000 empty homes used as a swarm of artificial valued property for speculation gains. Ok call it laundring. All the crooks and government gain at a deadly result for the entire country.
the reason is the municipalities punish developers with off site charges forcing unit sizes down because it pushes the unit costs too high. Then they turn around and raise taxes because of 'new off site infrastructure costs'. The builders nave already paid for these and we watch the money get wasted on other 'stuff'
@@elbowstrike ya but the government dont do shit other than just makes things worst waste taxpayer money and give themselves big paychecks n bonuses for doing nothing
Very fair comment, there is a lack of mid sized housing options due to specific regulations that make it difficult to build the kind of housing people need. Utae Lee just released an excellent video breaking this down
Who's gonna remove all these development fees There shouldn't be any development fees The only fee should be for the permit nothing else. It never ever should have cost more for development fees and permits then the actual building cost.
@@angus7278 I suggest they return to the same way it used to be when there was no development fees yet somehow real estate development got done. And it took only a couple of months to get permits as the building code was the priority.
@@angus7278 And when you consider cities like metro Vancouver don't even pay for the transit system The same as all other cities have to In other words they have lower operating costs than everyone else at the same time as they have the highest cost of development fees and permitting processes And a huge bureaucracy for that that's not even needed Metro Vancouver has 28 mayor's and mayor's offices with 28 police chiefs,28 fire chiefs 28 of every thing they only need one of Will mayor's and city councilors who become millionaires as mayor's and city councilors.who collect 6 and 7 paychecks when it should only be one.
@@angus7278 what do you think it costs to operate 28 mayor's offices with a couple hundred councilors Who are only responsible for building permits,sewage and water policing and most of the city sts except highways and bridges or provincial highways. While the province operates and funds public transportation and bridges. In a city of 2.2 milllion and some of these towns that make up the city have 100s of billlions in investment funds from the development fee's!
@@angus7278 the best part is they obstruct industry they don't want industry So that's why there's no money for the average citizen to buy a house most can't even afford condos. Because metro Vancouver is a service economy a bedroom city where the politicians in the province the members of the legislature the mayors the city councilors absolutely object to any kind of industry.
I thought Richmond had a limit on building height due to its soil conditions. Any details on how they are going to build 20 story buildings there? Or are they exempt?
you're correct on the soil condition. Richmond is a delta situation and it's soil is river sediments which no one can dig underneath. so building any high rise there doesn't make sense because in an earthquake situation, it will experience liquefaction and the airport nearby means flight path, where they can't build too tall of towers as that's where planes land/take off. so this policy change of mandatory rezoning broadswept across the province is another mistake that the NDP government made
Housing density can't be increased without also addressing infrastructure (water, sewer, roads, etc.). It will be interesting to see the unintended consequences of the BC Gov't housing mandate.
That was fine. It was us killing softwood lumber and selling off forestry contracts to capital groups fir carbon credit offsets so they can jet around and virtue signal. Causing kleenex to leave because they can't get consistent paper fibre byproduct from lumber...concrete hit with crush carbon tax, brick, glass... copper and aluminum. While moving 2 million people in and building less homes per year than the 1990s.
BC thinking about supply and demand? One person must have read the wikipedia entry on economics in the last 20 years here. Congratulations on David Eby for having half of a functioning brain. Hmm, increase supply... What a groundbreaking thought lol This province is full of people who sniff their own farts.
Agreed on the balls and making unilateral decisions. Not very democratic, lol, he would be better served living in North Korea. I love his policies, because the more changes he makes the more new ways that come to leverage RE to make huge gains. Bring on the new STR model of every SFH being a cash cow for PR owners.
Vancouver , BC - my City since the early 1970's , but when things were cheap - interest rates hit 20% around 1980 - and since then , because we have Mild Winters and for more than 10 years - $5 + Billion a month was coming from Asia which led to huge price increases - Apartments now sell for more than $1,000 a square foot , and most houses start around $2 Million for a house 50+ years old - Changing the zoning laws is a great improvement to lower the cost of housing - There is a Global Recession so we have to wait and see what happens in the next 10+ years . HOPEFULLY - CHANGE IS GOOD !
Total cost of construction still has to be looked at. Remove expensive step code if inefficient trade offs. Tax incentives similar to MURB program of the 70s. Still lots to do
The cost of construction is a function of the rapacious trades milking the crap out of real estate...350 per hour for a plumber with 2 yrs of bcit schooling and grade 10 math.....vomit inducing
Some plumbers are really taking advantage of people. They can charge you $500 or more for 30 minutes of work for something like a sprinkler leak in the middle of the night or on a holiday.
What a stupid step code it is !!! Currently building ourselves for personal ( husband is a licensed builder costing us more and all the stupid stuff we have to do .. remove Low E from south facing windows to let more sun in in winter. Did this to our last build a d our AC broke down during a heat wave. The people who made the step code need a real life building lesson
Good stuff Steve. Deputy Gov. Rogers had some other interesting comments at that speech as well; my favourite was her response to the question about affordable housing resulting in a loss of wealth for real estate investors. The rezoning seems like a step in the right direction as well; I just wish that there were a mechanism for some of the land value increase to be captured by Translink and put to use for further expanding rail networks. Capturing the increase in land value is how rail lines in Japan and Hong Kong have developed so well.
This is precisely why the NDP have authorized Translink to participate in the real estate market, particularly around it's TOD oriented station expansions to Skytrain going forward. I forget the name of it, but Translink has created an independent real estate division/entity that will be responsible for managing the properties in question. This is by no means the perfect approach, but it will allow Translink to capture the capital growth and profitability of the lands immediately adjacent to TOD station developments and to buffer it's operational expenses accordingly going forward. Long-term, it may even have an impact on capex costs for Translink, providing some much needed breathing room from total dependence on government subsidization for all major Translink infrastructure projects (not that the BC government has ever been shy about financing capital projects; certainly far less shy than in the subsequent financing of the ongoing operational expenses for those projects post-completion, lmao). This combined with the impending changes to zoning around Skytrain TOD policy could enable Translink to capture some very valuable land and erect some very valuable, non-Skytrain assets directly adjacent to it's current and future Skytrain stations. Hopefully, this will lead to Translink eventually developing combined, integrated, mixed-use, publicly accessible high-rises on every viable station structure, vastly increasing the value for the station to other commercial, residential, and service users nearby and providing much needed, transit-oriented development. I expect the BC NDP intend to provide some sizeable capital injections to this expanded Translink real estate development model, given that's exactly the kind of feather they like to keep in their hat.
@@RosscoAW Excellent writeup. I worry it's already too late for Translink to capture much value; the land surrounding their rail lines is already owned. Hopefully they will build many more lines going forward, and buy the to-be-upgraded land in advance of that. But the timeline for that will doubtless far exceed the tenure of the BC NDP.
The reason its excessive is kot to help people buy but to move people into city centres for the 15 minute city lockdown. Affordable house only in high identity...duh!
I understand the need for more housing, but this carte Blanche changes to municipal zoning hasn’t taken into consideration the infrastructure required, our sewers will need upgrading , our roads , our parks, our schools are already over capacity, as is our hospitals, people can’t find a doctor , so I’m not sure without addressing these issues you can build 3-4-5 times what municipal planners ( who get huge salaries) have planned for our community.
Who will pay their property taxes if they have no water to drink or a sewer system to flush their toilets into? Maybe for once we should expand the infrastructure (which is already bursting at the seams) and then increase housing density. So many people can’t get a family doctor and they want to double the population… shouldn’t we solve some of these problems before we make them even worse?
1st. Only in surrey are the schools overcrowded 2nd The high rise condos will be built without parking garages. 3rd The developer gets stuck with the cost of sewer and water upgrades. 4th And most importantly. No one in the entire country, who doesnt already have a family doctor can find one,
Good points but due to a slowing birth rate albeit higher life expectancy and people are healthier as they age now ie. look at Japan with 10,000's of people beyond a 100 in excellent health. Many elementary/sec. schools are below capacity.
People will not move there for the jobs if there's no affordable housing. That's the number one obstacle for finding nurses and construction workers right now. They don't want 50% of their income going to rent! Therefore, got to start somewhere - or perhaps everywhere, simultaneously.
Elephant in the room is that there is a whole generation of people who won’t be able to afford to buy their own house or condo despite the increase in density. Governments can create affordable housing by building more co-ops.
Pierre P. keeps pointing out the red tape that drives the costs of building through the roof. It shouldn't cost hundreds, or even tens of thousands of dollars to acquire building approvals.
This is like " politicians solving the housing crisis disregarding the economic problems created by politicians which created the crisis through printing money"
You mentioned that if you have lived in your home for 10 years, your property tax won't be affected in the highest and best use. Where can I find more information on that?
all these bot comments truth is no home owners allowed just stack and pack.. just herd the people exactly what they wanted all along. you will own nothing bye bye home ownership...
10:20 - Where this will really SCREW people is if they are in their house and want to sell and currently have the exemption, WHO will be able to afford the HOUSE with a new MASSIVE tax bill? Almost no one. So you will be basically be forced to SELL to only a DEVELOPER. Which will drive down the value of your property since you will be LIMITED in the amount of willing buyers. As a single family house near a skytrain (in the current system) people will be tripping over themselves to buy your property and developers have to compete with regular buyers. In this NEW system developers only have to compete with themselves. Expect many backroom deals between competitors to keep the prices DOWN
I like the IDEA of what the NDP has put forward. However, they also need to ensure any new developments around translink and bus stations are developed with a pedestrian/cycling infrastructure in mind. It's cheaper to develop for a municipality and more economical/profitable for business. A car centered infrastructure has proven itself to be very expensive to build and maintain.
Eat zee bugs! Jk, but seriously good point. Unironically, Pierre also refuses to give a number when asked about his immigration policy. He also supports sending money to non-nato members. Certainly a couple red flags there. (Yes, I know that Justin is worse)
Building a 15 minute city that entices people to choose to stay in their own neighbourhood more is not the problem. Mandating people stay in a 15 minute city or punishing people financially who choose to travel further is what needs to be resisted. The former is capitalism, the latter is authoritarianism.
@@silverfox1234 if the current government hadn’t demonstrated that it was willing to segregate, discriminate and defame its citizens, I would be into that idea.
Forcing the density around public transit could cause cities to stop building public transit to keep density low. Classic example of unintended consequences.
Either home owners are loosing some equity, or we are all dealing with inflation (wage-price spiral), or some combination of both (stagflation), there are no other ways around to fix affordability.
Prices will come down and rents will come down when nobody can afford to pay. There will be empty apartments and homeless people sleeping in the parking lot. And then prices will fall as nobody makes enough money to afford the prices. This still isn't "affordability" it's just prices going down "in dollars" that nobody has.
Singapore successfully carried out a massive public housing campaign. 80% of the population live in government built flats. It’s possible if the political will is there. I’ve seen them in person - they look good!
@@angus7278 the Canadian government isn’t even close to the efficiency of Singapore’s government. Too much bureaucracy and red tape so nothing gets done.
Do you think this future supply increase will lower shelter prices or just keep them from rising any further assuming all other variables don't wildly deviate?
When prices start falling the private sector pulls back. Doesn’t mean you can’t get an oversupply but it’s tricky building into a down market for obvious reasons. Investor capital and access to bank credit
Gradually then suddenly the drop and flood of sell off, akin to your classic "slow bleed" is what's happening now! The high density and re zoning is going to bring some legal challenges. And, I am sure as the Nimby's are going to be enraged by multiplexes going next to their properties. So, it's sure going to shape up to be interesting to see how this all plays out!
NIMBY's have no recourse. Whining in city council will do nothing. The judicial system will have nothing to say about it, as it's purely a provincial prerogative, and one that the BC NDP have a clear and invariable mandate to enact. We voted them in for capital projects and policy progression precisely like this, and it's taken them more than long enough to do so. Boomers that don't like fourplexes popping up on both sides of their dystopian, ugly single family home are just going to have to suck it the fuck up, buttercup.
Great analysis Steve! The sad part is BOC punishing the younger people who are planning a family and looking to buy a house. These younger folks played no role in free borrowing at 1.5% and spiking up the house prices. Their only fault is that they were born later than the greedy folks who are sitting on 2-3 mortgages at 7%.
@@m.b5777 Not true. You never know if by 2026, rates will be low again (say 2.5% instead of the current 5%). In that case, those who borrowed at 1.5%, will only renew at around 3% instead of the current 7%. Also, they would have paid down 5 years of mortgage and a huge principal amount. So basically, they may escape again while current first time buyers get punished for the reckless borrowing made by the 2020-2021 buyers
@@quentinstyger747 Yes, what’s affordable to one person might not be affordable to the next person. You don’t realize that wealth is lopsided. Not everyone is equal, some hold more more wealth than the average income earners. I got cousins in their 30’s doing extremely well and own multiple homes in Vancouver. Buying in Calgary or Edmonton would be extremely easy for them.
Texas doesn’t have any zoning laws either & it works out really well. Zoning laws are another branch of the government to control how we build our homes.
I imagine regions like Mission and Chilliwack will be less in demand as so far from transit hubs, lots of people prefer not to drive as well or just rent/car share when needed.
The increased population density will ensure that there will be further shortages of essential services like water sanitary sewer, storm sewer, electricity and Natural gas. Where will the money come from to expand all those necessary services?
The only sad thing about this legislation is that it wasn’t passed ten years ago. It cannot come soon enough. Eby’s titanium balls may get the job done in BC and stop our cities from becoming “museum cities”.
I'm curious about the details of this unzoning by transit law. What exceptions will exist to the law (historical buildings, historical neighborhoods, airplane zones, ect). Also, I am curious if zones other then residential are included or if the government just expects only currently existing residential / mixed used zones to be upzoned and other land uses by transit to be ignored? Also, given the FAR's of 5,4, and 3, how tall of buildings do we really expect to be built? 20 stories seems hard to achieve with a FAR of 5, but I also am not sure of the complexities of floor area ratios and what percentage of a floor is included as usable space. I suppose if part of the land is used for townhomes like a lot of modern skyrises, then you can easily get upwards of 20 stories with a FAR of 5?
go farm in sask, the lower mainland is the same size as hong kong we have no room for farms. Either that or watch everything collapse when young people leave in droves.
Want to know how to make money from these policy changes? Create a “Six Plex BC Reit”. …. Raise hundreds of millions in capital to allow for the mass purchase of old homes, demolition and construction of six plex units in the lower mainland. By raising capital in this way, you don’t need to deal with the high interest rates and there will be plenty of investors who will throw money at this. There is the potential to be able to build thousands of six plexes in the lower mainland if enough money can be raised. The profits will be massive! Best to create 2-3 cookie cutter six plex designs and build them over and over and over…..don’t get fancy with the finishes….. now, we just need to find enough construction workers!!
Will this systemic trend of increasing housing density lead to increased prices for detached houses as they progressively become a rarer commodity in the future?
It depends. Increased housing density can be highly sought after, especially if it's associated with walkable streets, accessible services and communities, and well built homes. There are a number of examples of this in Europe and Australia. It also depends on if suburbs remain sought after. I see a growing disdain for suburbs as they are isolating and lend to a reliance on vehicles, thus being quite bad for climate change. Because of this, I could see detached housing as falling out of style, especially for houses built cheaply in order to maximize their size (e.g., mcmansions). For properties outside cities that own a larger portion of land, I also see challenges for them, mainly from forest fires and a lack of protection that a city might offer
@@ethimself5064 then the tower won't be built if it doesn't make economic sense right? But when the time comes that it does make economic sense there will be way less red tape and road blocks stopping it which is a win I believe.
This (land use zoning) is a large and complicated issue with a history and owner / neighbours rights attached. The cities getting out of deciding what gets built where can be a good thing but city planners will not let that happen. While the process of approvals kills you so does all of the charges the cities put on a project.
The Okanagan on all sides needs a correction as literally inside 18 to 24 months housing doubled in price. I know people that moved up to vernon, who said some on the same block, bought the same size home/lot for literally half of what they paid from the year. If Eby wants to push through some hard change here, he needs to bring back the ability for Canadians, who are Canadian, to buy lands. From cities, villages, towns, to farms, ranches, and people, they want to lice rural to buy lands from the province. BC holds up to 94%! That is drasric and impactful on all sides to the communities and people of the province. Also, the cost of amanging all the lands is on the BC government, whereas it can be put to the people to own and support healthy lands. Look at Texas for a baseline or Montana. This will help with building new communities, homes, villages, towns, and small home fronts. We can do this! Let make it so for all and everyone in BC for all people! New and old and to come. Thoughts?
Government doesn’t want to do that because new low density communities mean building infrastructure but taking forever to recoup the cost via taxation. High density make more sense from a return on investment point of view. Crown corporations are supposed to make money.
@Observer168 Crown corps aren't supposed to make money in the sense of a regular for-profit business and are supposed to take that surplus to invest in communities, programs, and services. I agree better design and infill of current villages, towns, and cities needs to happen but also if a family or group or band of people sortosay want go and buy lands they should be able to and with the lands BC has it isn't a big thing to say the province will free up 30 to 50 percent of the lands say from fort st. John down tobthe border for Canadians who call BC home to apply and buy or for existing communities that need more space for planned expansion or management to apply and buy. Not not all would most likely be bought or sold as look at the market now for rural, much sits, most likely also due to price, but also it's not an easy life to live outside of a tier one or two city and many don't end up liking it. But it should be something people can do if they want. Look at Montana. You can buy a 10,0000 acre full ranch for the price of a nice home on 20 acres in the central Okanagan. Tell me that's not backward? To that point, a perfect example of this is land management and protection. The province doesn't have the resources, people , or money to manage the massive land base. Kelowna is demanding that the province sell them crown lands on their border as it's become a homeless encampment they have to manage as the province said they don't have the resources to manage the situation and Kelowna us paying the bill anyways for policing. This goes the same for iegal hunting, mining, logging, the province can't do the job there either. If people owned and managed more of the lands, they would be assisting in all this work. A guy I know who owns 80 acres up in the interior, who said if he didn't buy it 30+ years ago when it was affordable and made sense he would never be able to afford it, catches illegal hunting on his property and in the greater area all the time and reports it to authorities. Also, to the benefit of the crown Corp, as per your comment, this would free up resources by them as the land owner would be responsible for management and ensuring activities and operations and environmental management to the laws of the lands, and also taxes to the province for as long as we keep property taxes in place. Also, many to most wouldn't be moving into the back sticks or back 40nas they wouldn't want to be an hour or two out of a main hub down a dirt road but for the ones that want and wanted to, this should be an option amd one that shouldn't cost crazy amounts to do. The only and direct reason is land supply. So the above would be a win-win win of done right. I could go on, but I will sign off here and leave my replies and points above to chew on, lol.
@Observer168 at this point and time, agreed from the province to the federal governments that they seem to want us all to live in small overpriced boxes and to thank them for it! Hopefully, a change is coming in a good way and not a kinetic way.
The cattlemen they'll have a say as they have the free run on interior crownland. Mining, forestry, I'm pretty sure it's spoken for. The states has blm land in the western states anyone can stay there for 25.00 a month. Or move every two weeks for nothing. BC is disastrous.
Sure makes me glad I live on an off grid homestead up country. I tried living in the Lower Mainland back 30 years ago, and it was too crowded for me then. I can't imagine living in what they have planed. Good luck to you folks.
I understand your sentiment Vanc. is a urban center now, the suburbs are a good options for people who don't like the big buzz of cities I am more like you too. I prefer places like Chilliwack although I work in the lower mainland I love working and never plan on retiring but the city is so busy and noisy for me too.
So if you have to pay massive property tax on your single family home as though it's a high rise, but due to high development costs (interest rates, building costs) no developers are interested in building, won't your property value tank?
I would imagine it will all tank. Im rezoning a lot right now and I imagine now that this is getting pushed through I won't profit, there won't be a supply issue of multi family lots. Those with increased property taxes as if they own a high rise will probably loose there shirt, pretty dumb when the govenment makes a law then back dates it 10 years, I imagine there will be some lawsuits coming up.
Won’t tank because now there is more potential in the land from the up zoning. Now high rises aren’t mostly restricted to downtown Vancouver and commercial land.
@@Observer168 More potential yes but the current owner has to sell immediately because they can't afford hiked property taxes and developers don't want to buy it because interest rates and building costs are so high. Or do you think developers will buy these lots and sit on them until it makes more economic sense to start building?
@@DaveGrant developers love to hoard land. Holborn Groups owns 15 acres in the Little Mountain area of Vancouver and mostly undeveloped. There are still a bunch of plots purchased on the old Expo 89 lands still undeveloped. It’s probably gone up 5 times in value since purchased.
The west coast express is the most under utilized transit system in Vancouver and it could be a gold mine for the city. More stations could be added and surrounding land could be leased or sold for billions to developers to build mixed use developments all along the route of the west coast express. Canada is the only country in the G7 without a high speed rail system. There have been talks about a high speed rail system from Vancouver to Seattle but investment in the housing affordability should be a priority. Trains can go up to 200 km/h without major upgrades to our tracks. Mixed use real estate along the West Coast Express is exactly what we need to increase housing supply with a transit system that stretches from the Vancouver Waterfront to Chilliwack. Prioritize people over freight like in the USA and put the rail system to better use. Rush hour traffic getting in and out of Vancouver is horrendous. Developments along the West Coast express would help stream line housing and transportation. We would need the developers to pitch this to the city of Vancouver. Imagine living in an affordable condo development in Mission right above the train station and being able to reach the Vancouver water front in 30 minutes instead of being struck in traffic for 2 hours. Tens of thousands of people living along and using the West Coast Express would mean thousands of cars off our roads and billions in funds to the BC transit for upgrades. Take a ride along the West Coast Express and all you see is tons of commercial land, huge parking lots and empty commercial buildings with water front views that could be better used for housing.
What you're saying makes sense but money doesn't grow on trees. People have to realize those cars were purchased used from toronto. The rails and cars are already strained at their current occupancy rate. The stations would have to be built. The tracks would have to be updated. The cars themselves would have to be replaced over time. You're talking hundreds of millions of dollars. Probably into the billions. And then of course there's the SkyTrain system. We haven't begun to pay for the Evergreen line which is being constructed as we speak. You have to factor the cost of these things into the equation. It's all well and good to go out and live along the west coast Express line somewhere but the rates are going up, the taxes are going up, the cost of that is going up. See link below for an interesting recent story on the west coast Express and the need to do upgrades. Vancouver was already one of the most expensive cities in North America to live in and definitely the most expensive in Canada prior to this latest real estate fiasco. Just think how much more it's going to be to live here in the next decade. dailyhive.com/vancouver/west-coast-express-commuter-rail-new-tracks
@@Joe-mz6dc it will cost billions but it will benefit the people in a major way. Infrastructure always needs to be upgraded or it just ages and looses functionality. There will be a return on investment since land around newly built stations can be leased out or sold. Hong Kong has been doing this for decades and it’s become profitable. This will take decades to implement so you won’t see anything built for 20-30 years.
The gov't needs to relinquish more land - which is completely outside of this "city" issue. Many do not want to live in a city, nevermind a 15 minute cement he**. Zoning needs to change in rural areas too, in the interior, so people can leave the cities and have a small dwelling on some land if they choose. Still too, too many restrictions even if it's "rural" or "no zoning". All types of restrictions need to be changed or scrapped outside of the large populace.
Canada is a huge place and we’re having trouble with not enough residential space? Ridiculous. You’re right. They could open up some Crown land as well as allowing more density on rural land.
Houses near skytrains or future skytrains are going to skyrocket in value 3-10x if they automatically get rezoned to super high density. Hear comes the land gold rush
Or will it have the opposite affect? There will be so much land available for developers to pursue, the "specialness" of buildable land is lessened and I can see the values decrease. Developers are still going to need to offer a decent return to get people out of their houses, especially if they have lived in the house for 10+ years and are not affected by the tax increase. So who knows where this will go. @Steve what is your take on the value of land going forward?
@@freedomliberty83 Land should not devalue, because there are not enough construction workers in HCOL areas to rapidly construct new dwellings. We can maybe increase our rate 30-40%? Even if the land is rapidly available, and permitting massively simplifies due to changes in the law, construction is still limited in speed by hammers on the ground. CMHC says we need 6m housing units by 2030 - so we need to boost construction by about +150%.
Steve the problem is inflation. They have devalued the currency from all the borrowing done since 2016 I would say. More currency to buy the same things and we're paying for it now. Everything costs more! Sure you can build more units but if nobody can afford them that problem is not going away bro.
I generally support the BC initiative, it will be very effective to remedy the structural supply problems. But I think there should be exemptions or exclusions for places like Steveston, West Vancouver, etc. This will destroy West Vancouver, if it goes through as is. The population could go up by 10x there, and the Lions Gate bridge couldn't possibly handle that. Plus, it would be really odd to see a bunch of townhouses on a lot surrounded immediately by mansions on all sides.
There talking about building condo towers without parking garages. No townhouses will be allowed, will only be zoned for 4 to 20 stories. They will attract people who dont drive, as the future is less fossil fuels. The bridge traffic will be unaffected.
Transport Canada will not relent on max 146 ft tall buildings near YVR no matter what the zoning. This is why buildings in Richmond all look the same height, all under 146 ft.
LOL. Skytrain was massively at capacity when built. Canada line is already packed 24/7 How will all these new residents in towers near skytrain get around ? Drive cars ?
I mean developers are already getting busted at current supply/demand level, it’s not like interest rates will go back to almost zero anytime soon, they’d be crazy to start mass building knowing what kind of margin/competition they’d be facing after the new policies. The gov wins by all means though, taxes will go up without anything new at all.
Many deals go behind closed doors. Some development projects are interest free loans from the government. B.C. government gave developer $211M interest-free loan in Little Mountain land sale Purchase and sale agreement sheds light on 2008 deal that saw Holborn Properties acquire lands for $334M
@@Observer168 I thought you meant that lower immigration rates and negative population growth were inflationary. (Keynesian economics) Can you please walk me through how you believe population growth effects inflation?
Bring on the new Land Bank gold rush. If you can acquire or hold onto any SFH near any of the unilateral new rules, you will be happy in 10 years. Who needs to worry?
lol.. 2014 my rent in a 1bd was $750, today it's $1600 for a bachelor suite in an absolute shithole of a building.. Go online and look up places for $1600, you'll find 'rooms for rent' w 2 or 3 strangers.. This is only going to get worse...in years down the road when all these new developments are finally built, those 1bd apartments will be $3,000 a month
BC needs to get rid of the owner builder bureaucracy... Either way, I own a spare lot and will not be building anything on it until these rates go down. I really want to build, I am ready to build, but I feel I would be crazy to do it in this environment...
Gotta LOVE this David Eby fella ! As for the BoC's Carolyn Rogers.... The Real Estate Price declines may not be noticeable as acute events in specific markets(crashs), rather, they may be manifested by more longer term trends to lower valuations, or even static valuations attenuated lower in real terms through persistent "real" cpi inflation.
First thing Eby needs to do is bring back some rights to landlords. NO ONE wants to rent their place right now, because tenants have all the rights and can seriously affect the lives of people who are just trying to provide housing.
This is great in the sense more housing can be built... BUT... there are places all over Vancouver under construction that can't be completed because we have a huge shortage of experienced trades. As the builds go up, immigration and migration will continue, the population is not going to stop and wait. This change may slightly loosen the stranglehold, it will not remove the rope.
The fact that the BOC knew they could have bring down real estate values by 33 percent shows that they and in extention the Canadian government is ok with real estate values falling dramatically. This destroys the bull argument that the government will prop up real estate as its too big to fail and the economy cant survive. Sorry
@@Observer168You call raising the rate at the fastest pace in history and saying they expected housing market to crash as no bite? You don't feel the teeth? Sucks to be a boiling frog.
You failed to address affordability, more high density doesn’t necessarily make home costs cheeper. 🤔 what makes you think more available housing means lower costs?
There aren’t many options for this unless you expect tax payers money used to build homes. Building “affordable” housing isn’t profitable so nobody will build it.
It could still make sense if permitting time goes down. For example, if someone bought a property in Vancouver for $5m back when rates were 3%, then rezoned it at a cost of $2.8m over 6 years, plus had to pay 3% on 50% of the property that wasn't cash, they'd have another $450k to recoup. That puts their all-in cost at $8.3m If streamlining goes through, they could buy the same property for $5m when rates are 7%, submit their plans at a cost of $200k, then get building in 8 months, for a total cost of $5.5m It then becomes a question of whether people will buy units at 7%. The units can be sold a bit cheaper due to the nearly $2.8m in cost savings, but that might only work out to $100k of extra wiggle room per unit? Developers will likely carefully gauge purchase demand at a given pricepoint before taking the plunge and starting construction.
At 7:00 mins in, a chart says "Minimum allowable height (storeys)" and then under that says "up to 20". WHAT? ... so 1 is "up to 20" ... so there is NO minimum height. What is the purpose of adding "up to .... " before the number? JUST USE THE NUMBER. Why can't they just be CLEAR? What is so difficult about CLARITY? Dumb it down, so that us non-lawyer types can understand.
fear a housing crash due to people buying homes above asking prices with little equity. If prices drop, affordability and potential foreclosures may arise, worsened by future layoffs and rising living costs. I want to invest more than $300k, but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk.
Consider reallocating from real estate to other reliable investments like stock, crypto or precious metals . Severe recessions offer market buying opportunities with caution, as volatility can yield short-term trading prospects. Not financial advice, but it may be wise to invest, as cash isn't ideal in this period.
I've been in touch with a financial advisor ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
Mind if I ask you recommend this particular professional you use their service? i have quite a lot of marketing problems
My CFA ’Margaret Johnson Arndt’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thank you for this tip. it was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
The fact that there is already an excessive amount of demand awaiting its absorption, despite how everyone is frightened and calling the crash, is another reason why it is less likely to occur that way. 2008 saw no one, at least not the broad public, making this forecast, as I'll explain below. The ownership rate was noted to have peaked in 2004 in the other comment. Having previously peaked in the second quarter of 2020, we are currently at the median level. Between 2008 and 2012, it dropped by 3%, and by the second quarter of 2020, it had dropped from 68 to 65.
You're not doing anything wrong; the problem is that you don't have the knowledge needed to succeed in a challenging market. Only highly qualified professionals who had to experience the 2008 financial crisis could hope to earn a high salary in these challenging conditions.
@@hasede-lg9hj Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful.
Actually, I'm not sure if I'm allowed to mention this, but I'd recommend looking up Sharon Ann Meny because she was a big deal in 2020. She manages my portfolio and serves as both my coach and my manager.
Finding financial advisors like Sharon Ann Meny who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
@@hasede-lg9hj Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
The problem with mass density in Canada is they don’t build family sized condos… which is why most families live in houses or townhomes. Look to S Korea. Their condos are all built for families. Huge with lots of rooms for families.
And then the same people who don’t want government intervention in anything also complain about immigration and that nobody has families anymore. Like if you hate immigration and want people to have families you need government intervention to make sure that the private sector creates conditions so that families can exist and we can have a replacement level fertility rate.
And 26,000 empty homes used as a swarm of artificial valued property for speculation gains. Ok call it laundring. All the crooks and government gain at a deadly result for the entire country.
the reason is the municipalities punish developers with off site charges forcing unit sizes down because it pushes the unit costs too high. Then they turn around and raise taxes because of 'new off site infrastructure costs'. The builders nave already paid for these and we watch the money get wasted on other 'stuff'
@@elbowstrike ya but the government dont do shit other than just makes things worst waste taxpayer money and give themselves big paychecks n bonuses for doing nothing
Very fair comment, there is a lack of mid sized housing options due to specific regulations that make it difficult to build the kind of housing people need. Utae Lee just released an excellent video breaking this down
Thank you David Eby
I am sooo excited and happy to see provincial government step in for this change! Finally! I don’t have to begging city for OCP and rezoing!
yes, took me 15 months to get a rezone for an alley house last year, lol. Now its for not, a waste o money but a valuable lesson
Who's gonna remove all these development fees
There shouldn't be any development fees
The only fee should be for the permit nothing else.
It never ever should have cost more for development fees and permits then the actual building cost.
Depends on what the development fees covers. It must be applied to something. So will the taxpayers will be forced to pay instead?
@@angus7278 I suggest they return to the same way it used to be when there was no development fees yet somehow real estate development got done.
And it took only a couple of months to get permits as the building code was the priority.
@@angus7278 And when you consider cities like metro Vancouver don't even pay for the transit system
The same as all other cities have to
In other words they have lower operating costs than everyone else at the same time as they have the highest cost of development fees and permitting processes
And a huge bureaucracy for that that's not even needed
Metro Vancouver has 28 mayor's and mayor's offices with 28 police chiefs,28 fire chiefs 28 of every thing they only need one of
Will mayor's and city councilors who become millionaires as mayor's and city councilors.who collect 6 and 7 paychecks when it should only be one.
@@angus7278 what do you think it costs to operate 28 mayor's offices with a couple hundred councilors
Who are only responsible for building permits,sewage and water policing and most of the city sts except highways and bridges or provincial highways.
While the province operates and funds public transportation and bridges.
In a city of 2.2 milllion and some of these towns that make up the city have 100s of billlions in investment funds from the development fee's!
@@angus7278 the best part is they obstruct industry they don't want industry
So that's why there's no money for the average citizen to buy a house most can't even afford condos.
Because metro Vancouver is a service economy a bedroom city where the politicians in the province the members of the legislature the mayors the city councilors absolutely object to any kind of industry.
I thought Richmond had a limit on building height due to its soil conditions. Any details on how they are going to build 20 story buildings there? Or are they exempt?
you're correct on the soil condition. Richmond is a delta situation and it's soil is river sediments which no one can dig underneath. so building any high rise there doesn't make sense because in an earthquake situation, it will experience liquefaction and the airport nearby means flight path, where they can't build too tall of towers as that's where planes land/take off. so this policy change of mandatory rezoning broadswept across the province is another mistake that the NDP government made
Housing density can't be increased without also addressing infrastructure (water, sewer, roads, etc.). It will be interesting to see the unintended consequences of the BC Gov't housing mandate.
so the BOC forced interest rates down and printed $$$$$$ causing prices to skyrocket. ...how is this a free market ? It is their fault
it's a free market, because that is the environment we live in and we as free Canadians can make our independent decision with freedom,
Governments also forced people out of work... fucking supply chains and productivity.
@@DummMoney-rr1filol...
That was fine. It was us killing softwood lumber and selling off forestry contracts to capital groups fir carbon credit offsets so they can jet around and virtue signal. Causing kleenex to leave because they can't get consistent paper fibre byproduct from lumber...concrete hit with crush carbon tax, brick, glass... copper and aluminum. While moving 2 million people in and building less homes per year than the 1990s.
@@dootdoot1867You're out of your element, Donny.
Nothing will change!! It's going to take forever.
I agree that these policy changes are needed and I applaud David Eby for being a politician with a spine and a brain.
R1 zoning is bankrupting cities all across North America
BC thinking about supply and demand? One person must have read the wikipedia entry on economics in the last 20 years here. Congratulations on David Eby for having half of a functioning brain. Hmm, increase supply... What a groundbreaking thought lol
This province is full of people who sniff their own farts.
Should Ban AirBnB scam as well. Come on Eby, you have shown that you have Balls to do it. 👍👍
Agreed on the balls and making unilateral decisions. Not very democratic, lol, he would be better served living in North Korea. I love his policies, because the more changes he makes the more new ways that come to leverage RE to make huge gains. Bring on the new STR model of every SFH being a cash cow for PR owners.
@@BoomBoomBoom2023 are you aware of the new Airbnb rules in BC?
Vancouver , BC - my City since the early 1970's , but when things were cheap - interest rates hit 20% around 1980 -
and since then , because we have Mild Winters and for more than 10 years - $5 + Billion a month was coming from
Asia which led to huge price increases - Apartments now sell for more than $1,000 a square foot , and most
houses start around $2 Million for a house 50+ years old - Changing the zoning laws is a great improvement
to lower the cost of housing - There is a Global Recession so we have to wait and see what happens in the next
10+ years . HOPEFULLY - CHANGE IS GOOD !
First time I've seen a video of yours. I love your explanation, on this issue I didn't know much about before. Gratefully subscribed.
Thanks for this. It’s well concise and well presented.
Total cost of construction still has to be looked at. Remove expensive step code if inefficient trade offs. Tax incentives similar to MURB program of the 70s. Still lots to do
The cost of construction is a function of the rapacious trades milking the crap out of real estate...350 per hour for a plumber with 2 yrs of bcit schooling and grade 10 math.....vomit inducing
Anywhere else he'd be luck to charge out 60 bucks an hour at best
Some plumbers are really taking advantage of people. They can charge you $500 or more for 30 minutes of work for something like a sprinkler leak in the middle of the night or on a holiday.
What a stupid step code it is !!! Currently building ourselves for personal ( husband is a licensed builder costing us more and all the stupid stuff we have to do .. remove Low E from south facing windows to let more sun in in winter. Did this to our last build a d our AC broke down during a heat wave. The people who made the step code need a real life building lesson
Good stuff Steve. Deputy Gov. Rogers had some other interesting comments at that speech as well; my favourite was her response to the question about affordable housing resulting in a loss of wealth for real estate investors. The rezoning seems like a step in the right direction as well; I just wish that there were a mechanism for some of the land value increase to be captured by Translink and put to use for further expanding rail networks. Capturing the increase in land value is how rail lines in Japan and Hong Kong have developed so well.
This is precisely why the NDP have authorized Translink to participate in the real estate market, particularly around it's TOD oriented station expansions to Skytrain going forward. I forget the name of it, but Translink has created an independent real estate division/entity that will be responsible for managing the properties in question. This is by no means the perfect approach, but it will allow Translink to capture the capital growth and profitability of the lands immediately adjacent to TOD station developments and to buffer it's operational expenses accordingly going forward. Long-term, it may even have an impact on capex costs for Translink, providing some much needed breathing room from total dependence on government subsidization for all major Translink infrastructure projects (not that the BC government has ever been shy about financing capital projects; certainly far less shy than in the subsequent financing of the ongoing operational expenses for those projects post-completion, lmao).
This combined with the impending changes to zoning around Skytrain TOD policy could enable Translink to capture some very valuable land and erect some very valuable, non-Skytrain assets directly adjacent to it's current and future Skytrain stations. Hopefully, this will lead to Translink eventually developing combined, integrated, mixed-use, publicly accessible high-rises on every viable station structure, vastly increasing the value for the station to other commercial, residential, and service users nearby and providing much needed, transit-oriented development.
I expect the BC NDP intend to provide some sizeable capital injections to this expanded Translink real estate development model, given that's exactly the kind of feather they like to keep in their hat.
@@RosscoAW Excellent writeup. I worry it's already too late for Translink to capture much value; the land surrounding their rail lines is already owned. Hopefully they will build many more lines going forward, and buy the to-be-upgraded land in advance of that. But the timeline for that will doubtless far exceed the tenure of the BC NDP.
The reason its excessive is kot to help people buy but to move people into city centres for the 15 minute city lockdown. Affordable house only in high identity...duh!
Bigger issue is our lack of urban sprawl. Whens the last 1200 home subdivision been announced?
95% of the entire lower mainland is urban sprawl, including 99% of the frazer valley
That was really educational and helpful! Thanks so much for the info! I've subscribed to your channel to hopefully pick up and learn more! 👍🏻
🙏🏻
I understand the need for more housing, but this carte Blanche changes to municipal zoning hasn’t taken into consideration the infrastructure required, our sewers will need upgrading , our roads , our parks, our schools are already over capacity, as is our hospitals, people can’t find a doctor , so I’m not sure without addressing these issues you can build 3-4-5 times what municipal planners ( who get huge salaries) have planned for our community.
Catch 22 - nothing gets upgraded unless more utility and property taxes get collected. High density allows more taxes to be collected per block
Who will pay their property taxes if they have no water to drink or a sewer system to flush their toilets into? Maybe for once we should expand the infrastructure (which is already bursting at the seams) and then increase housing density. So many people can’t get a family doctor and they want to double the population… shouldn’t we solve some of these problems before we make them even worse?
1st.
Only in surrey are the schools overcrowded
2nd
The high rise condos will be built without parking garages.
3rd
The developer gets stuck with the cost of sewer and water upgrades.
4th
And most importantly.
No one in the entire country, who doesnt already have a family doctor can find one,
Good points but due to a slowing birth rate albeit higher life expectancy and people are healthier as they age now ie. look at Japan with 10,000's of people beyond a 100 in excellent health. Many elementary/sec. schools are below capacity.
People will not move there for the jobs if there's no affordable housing. That's the number one obstacle for finding nurses and construction workers right now. They don't want 50% of their income going to rent! Therefore, got to start somewhere - or perhaps everywhere, simultaneously.
thank you for this info, i complete missed it
Elephant in the room is that there is a whole generation of people who won’t be able to afford to buy their own house or condo despite the increase in density. Governments can create affordable housing by building more co-ops.
Using taxes payer dollars to build a home for you?
Pierre P. keeps pointing out the red tape that drives the costs of building through the roof. It shouldn't cost hundreds, or even tens of thousands of dollars to acquire building approvals.
@observer168 Feisty 🤣. Not for me but the generation after. I don’t mind my tax dollars being spent for co-ops.
@@jeff-w yep its ridiculous especially in Vancouver to get permits n stuff to build houses tales forever and they charge so much
This is like " politicians solving the housing crisis disregarding the economic problems created by politicians which created the crisis through printing money"
Yup-Exactly right
You mentioned that if you have lived in your home for 10 years, your property tax won't be affected in the highest and best use. Where can I find more information on that?
Section 19.8 of the BC Assessment act
Basically it's a fighting between current house owners vs new comers.
all these bot comments truth is no home owners allowed just stack and pack.. just herd the people exactly what they wanted all along. you will own nothing bye bye home ownership...
10:20 - Where this will really SCREW people is if they are in their house and want to sell and currently have the exemption, WHO will be able to afford the HOUSE with a new MASSIVE tax bill? Almost no one. So you will be basically be forced to SELL to only a DEVELOPER. Which will drive down the value of your property since you will be LIMITED in the amount of willing buyers. As a single family house near a skytrain (in the current system) people will be tripping over themselves to buy your property and developers have to compete with regular buyers. In this NEW system developers only have to compete with themselves. Expect many backroom deals between competitors to keep the prices DOWN
Mandating high density construction around skytrain stations is a good idea.
Ridiculous, they have done that for all the train stations already,except it wasn’t mandated by the provincial government.
@@KS-bi3ogso many single family homes around skytrain stations. Waste of infrastructure
I like the IDEA of what the NDP has put forward. However, they also need to ensure any new developments around translink and bus stations are developed with a pedestrian/cycling infrastructure in mind. It's cheaper to develop for a municipality and more economical/profitable for business. A car centered infrastructure has proven itself to be very expensive to build and maintain.
@6:04 "I've never seen a politician ram something through"
Like the Emergencies Act?
Who wants to live near a bus depot, disgusting
Exactly
The ones that can’t afford to buy in nicer locations
Thanks for the update Steve
Lots of empty office buildings sb used for high density housing with infrastructure already in existence.
We Were waiting for this in Ontario as well... Looks like you beat as to the punch
Shouldn’t we be worried that this is a step towards 15 min cities?
The 15 min city is real. City paid SFU for this project. I participated in one of their sessions.
Eat zee bugs!
Jk, but seriously good point.
Unironically, Pierre also refuses to give a number when asked about his immigration policy.
He also supports sending money to non-nato members.
Certainly a couple red flags there. (Yes, I know that Justin is worse)
Is 15 min cities a bad thing?
Building a 15 minute city that entices people to choose to stay in their own neighbourhood more is not the problem. Mandating people stay in a 15 minute city or punishing people financially who choose to travel further is what needs to be resisted. The former is capitalism, the latter is authoritarianism.
@@silverfox1234 if the current government hadn’t demonstrated that it was willing to segregate, discriminate and defame its citizens, I would be into that idea.
Forcing the density around public transit could cause cities to stop building public transit to keep density low. Classic example of unintended consequences.
The infrastructure, especially in transportation in Vancouver and the Lower Mainland, is already 100 years behind
Either home owners are loosing some equity, or we are all dealing with inflation (wage-price spiral), or some combination of both (stagflation), there are no other ways around to fix affordability.
Over 60% of Canadians already own homes. Doubt they care if you own a home or not.
Equity? No fake value
Prices will come down and rents will come down when nobody can afford to pay. There will be empty apartments and homeless people sleeping in the parking lot.
And then prices will fall as nobody makes enough money to afford the prices.
This still isn't "affordability" it's just prices going down "in dollars" that nobody has.
Singapore successfully carried out a massive public housing campaign. 80% of the population live in government built flats. It’s possible if the political will is there. I’ve seen them in person - they look good!
@@angus7278 the Canadian government isn’t even close to the efficiency of Singapore’s government. Too much bureaucracy and red tape so nothing gets done.
Do you think this future supply increase will lower shelter prices or just keep them from rising any further assuming all other variables don't wildly deviate?
You are asking the wrong guy. He's here to drag you into RE scam, not to help you.
@Burboss The churn is real. 😂
@@Burboss yes exactly spot on
When prices start falling the private sector pulls back. Doesn’t mean you can’t get an oversupply but it’s tricky building into a down market for obvious reasons. Investor capital and access to bank credit
@@saretsky Makes sense, thanks for the insight! Also, I hope to see you rocking the 'stache next video, tis the season!
I imagine that a lot of municipalities like Steveston are looking at how to move the transit hubs like bus exchanges.
Wtf I grew up in Steveston too!
Subbed.
"You won't own bupkiss ... and be sardined into unhappiness". Clot Slob, Mother Weffer. B.C version.
Eby should choose chaos and start building bus exchanges in NIMBY neighbourhoods.
Eby should step down.
@@Joe-mz6dc why? he is the old leader in this whole ass country who is attempting to do anything about housing!
Gradually then suddenly the drop and flood of sell off, akin to your classic "slow bleed" is what's happening now! The high density and re zoning is going to bring some legal challenges. And, I am sure as the Nimby's are going to be enraged by multiplexes going next to their properties. So, it's sure going to shape up to be interesting to see how this all plays out!
NIMBY's have no recourse. Whining in city council will do nothing. The judicial system will have nothing to say about it, as it's purely a provincial prerogative, and one that the BC NDP have a clear and invariable mandate to enact. We voted them in for capital projects and policy progression precisely like this, and it's taken them more than long enough to do so. Boomers that don't like fourplexes popping up on both sides of their dystopian, ugly single family home are just going to have to suck it the fuck up, buttercup.
Thanks for this.
Great analysis Steve!
The sad part is BOC punishing the younger people who are planning a family and looking to buy a house. These younger folks played no role in free borrowing at 1.5% and spiking up the house prices. Their only fault is that they were born later than the greedy folks who are sitting on 2-3 mortgages at 7%.
We don't have 30 year fixed rate mortgages in Canada. Within 3 years everyone will be paying the same rate.
@@m.b5777 Not true. You never know if by 2026, rates will be low again (say 2.5% instead of the current 5%). In that case, those who borrowed at 1.5%, will only renew at around 3% instead of the current 7%. Also, they would have paid down 5 years of mortgage and a huge principal amount. So basically, they may escape again while current first time buyers get punished for the reckless borrowing made by the 2020-2021 buyers
Funny how nobody thought it was a problem when prices went insane. That was fine.
Only areas around Vancouver and Toronto are insane. Places like Calgary and Edmonton stay flat for decades.
@@Observer168 Calgary is BOOMING! big price jumps in the last year.
@@quentinstyger747 Calgary and Edmonton is still very affordable.
@@quentinstyger747 Yes, what’s affordable to one person might not be affordable to the next person. You don’t realize that wealth is lopsided. Not everyone is equal, some hold more more wealth than the average income earners. I got cousins in their 30’s doing extremely well and own multiple homes in Vancouver.
Buying in Calgary or Edmonton would be extremely easy for them.
Thank Steve! Do we know if they also allow to build more square footage? I did not see any information in the news
Yes under FAR (floor area ratio)
Texas doesn’t have any zoning laws either & it works out really well. Zoning laws are another branch of the government to control how we build our homes.
Great news!
Wait, I thought this policy effects land near SkyTrain stations. Land near bus exchanges are effected as well??
Yes
I imagine regions like Mission and Chilliwack will be less in demand as so far from transit hubs, lots of people prefer not to drive as well or just rent/car share when needed.
The increased population density will ensure that there will be further shortages of essential services like water sanitary sewer, storm sewer, electricity and Natural gas. Where will the money come from to expand all those necessary services?
OMG does this mean the beginning of smart or 15 minutes cities? Thank you for informing us about this. I was worried about that
Take a look at the Blanca bus exchange 😂 that’s a hilarious one. Such a quiet super high valued location
The only sad thing about this legislation is that it wasn’t passed ten years ago. It cannot come soon enough. Eby’s titanium balls may get the job done in BC and stop our cities from becoming “museum cities”.
I'm curious about the details of this unzoning by transit law. What exceptions will exist to the law (historical buildings, historical neighborhoods, airplane zones, ect). Also, I am curious if zones other then residential are included or if the government just expects only currently existing residential / mixed used zones to be upzoned and other land uses by transit to be ignored?
Also, given the FAR's of 5,4, and 3, how tall of buildings do we really expect to be built? 20 stories seems hard to achieve with a FAR of 5, but I also am not sure of the complexities of floor area ratios and what percentage of a floor is included as usable space. I suppose if part of the land is used for townhomes like a lot of modern skyrises, then you can easily get upwards of 20 stories with a FAR of 5?
Seems like FAR is no longer a tool available to limit construction.
How will this effect rural land owners ? IE R 3 and R 2 zoning
go farm in sask, the lower mainland is the same size as hong kong we have no room for farms. Either that or watch everything collapse when young people leave in droves.
Want to know how to make money from these policy changes? Create a “Six Plex BC Reit”. …. Raise hundreds of millions in capital to allow for the mass purchase of old homes, demolition and construction of six plex units in the lower mainland. By raising capital in this way, you don’t need to deal with the high interest rates and there will be plenty of investors who will throw money at this. There is the potential to be able to build thousands of six plexes in the lower mainland if enough money can be raised. The profits will be massive! Best to create 2-3 cookie cutter six plex designs and build them over and over and over…..don’t get fancy with the finishes….. now, we just need to find enough construction workers!!
Will this systemic trend of increasing housing density lead to increased prices for detached houses as they progressively become a rarer commodity in the future?
Detached homes will only be for the rich in the future.
It depends. Increased housing density can be highly sought after, especially if it's associated with walkable streets, accessible services and communities, and well built homes. There are a number of examples of this in Europe and Australia. It also depends on if suburbs remain sought after. I see a growing disdain for suburbs as they are isolating and lend to a reliance on vehicles, thus being quite bad for climate change. Because of this, I could see detached housing as falling out of style, especially for houses built cheaply in order to maximize their size (e.g., mcmansions). For properties outside cities that own a larger portion of land, I also see challenges for them, mainly from forest fires and a lack of protection that a city might offer
Yes, the area I live in will reel the benefits of this plan, houses will just increase while they destroy 2:16 the other areas with high density.
@@kennethyoung2077living outside of high density areas will be made unaffordable or illegal for normal ppl
Sure they will. They’re a luxury item now.
I can't imagine up to 20 story etc buildings near bus stops in small cities. Like 5,000 +. Egad
Why not? What does waiting until the small city has sprawled out enough to be "big" enough to have tall buildings accomplish? Honest question
@@Cdot4585 Most don't need them at all since the population growth is minor, very minor and would cost a fortune with a huge vacancy rate
@@ethimself5064 then the tower won't be built if it doesn't make economic sense right? But when the time comes that it does make economic sense there will be way less red tape and road blocks stopping it which is a win I believe.
@@Cdot4585 When the time comes, yes. 👍
This (land use zoning) is a large and complicated issue with a history and owner / neighbours rights attached. The cities getting out of deciding what gets built where can be a good thing but city planners will not let that happen. While the process of approvals kills you so does all of the charges the cities put on a project.
What's that gonna bring to these communities absolutely zero parking gonna be a shitshow.
The Okanagan on all sides needs a correction as literally inside 18 to 24 months housing doubled in price. I know people that moved up to vernon, who said some on the same block, bought the same size home/lot for literally half of what they paid from the year.
If Eby wants to push through some hard change here, he needs to bring back the ability for Canadians, who are Canadian, to buy lands. From cities, villages, towns, to farms, ranches, and people, they want to lice rural to buy lands from the province. BC holds up to 94%! That is drasric and impactful on all sides to the communities and people of the province. Also, the cost of amanging all the lands is on the BC government, whereas it can be put to the people to own and support healthy lands. Look at Texas for a baseline or Montana.
This will help with building new communities, homes, villages, towns, and small home fronts.
We can do this! Let make it so for all and everyone in BC for all people! New and old and to come.
Thoughts?
Government doesn’t want to do that because new low density communities mean building infrastructure but taking forever to recoup the cost via taxation. High density make more sense from a return on investment point of view. Crown corporations are supposed to make money.
@Observer168 Crown corps aren't supposed to make money in the sense of a regular for-profit business and are supposed to take that surplus to invest in communities, programs, and services.
I agree better design and infill of current villages, towns, and cities needs to happen but also if a family or group or band of people sortosay want go and buy lands they should be able to and with the lands BC has it isn't a big thing to say the province will free up 30 to 50 percent of the lands say from fort st. John down tobthe border for Canadians who call BC home to apply and buy or for existing communities that need more space for planned expansion or management to apply and buy. Not not all would most likely be bought or sold as look at the market now for rural, much sits, most likely also due to price, but also it's not an easy life to live outside of a tier one or two city and many don't end up liking it. But it should be something people can do if they want. Look at Montana. You can buy a 10,0000 acre full ranch for the price of a nice home on 20 acres in the central Okanagan. Tell me that's not backward?
To that point, a perfect example of this is land management and protection. The province doesn't have the resources, people , or money to manage the massive land base. Kelowna is demanding that the province sell them crown lands on their border as it's become a homeless encampment they have to manage as the province said they don't have the resources to manage the situation and Kelowna us paying the bill anyways for policing.
This goes the same for iegal hunting, mining, logging, the province can't do the job there either. If people owned and managed more of the lands, they would be assisting in all this work. A guy I know who owns 80 acres up in the interior, who said if he didn't buy it 30+ years ago when it was affordable and made sense he would never be able to afford it, catches illegal hunting on his property and in the greater area all the time and reports it to authorities. Also, to the benefit of the crown Corp, as per your comment, this would free up resources by them as the land owner would be responsible for management and ensuring activities and operations and environmental management to the laws of the lands, and also taxes to the province for as long as we keep property taxes in place.
Also, many to most wouldn't be moving into the back sticks or back 40nas they wouldn't want to be an hour or two out of a main hub down a dirt road but for the ones that want and wanted to, this should be an option amd one that shouldn't cost crazy amounts to do. The only and direct reason is land supply.
So the above would be a win-win win of done right.
I could go on, but I will sign off here and leave my replies and points above to chew on, lol.
This isn’t what the government wants
@Observer168 at this point and time, agreed from the province to the federal governments that they seem to want us all to live in small overpriced boxes and to thank them for it! Hopefully, a change is coming in a good way and not a kinetic way.
The cattlemen they'll have a say as they have the free run on interior crownland. Mining, forestry, I'm pretty sure it's spoken for. The states has blm land in the western states anyone can stay there for 25.00 a month. Or move every two weeks for nothing. BC is disastrous.
Building costs need to be cut 35%,food cost 35%,etal
Sure makes me glad I live on an off grid homestead up country. I tried living in the Lower Mainland back 30 years ago, and it was too crowded for me then. I can't imagine living in what they have planed. Good luck to you folks.
Vancouver is a global city lol. This isn't the 1940's anymore.
I understand your sentiment Vanc. is a urban center now, the suburbs are a good options for people who don't like the big buzz of cities I am more like you too. I prefer places like Chilliwack although I work in the lower mainland I love working and never plan on retiring but the city is so busy and noisy for me too.
Those hungry hungry developers gonna be looking to do deals with Granpa n Granma for their land :0]They gotta put these New Canadians somewhere eh :0]
So if you have to pay massive property tax on your single family home as though it's a high rise, but due to high development costs (interest rates, building costs) no developers are interested in building, won't your property value tank?
Did home values tank before all the rezoing?
I would imagine it will all tank. Im rezoning a lot right now and I imagine now that this is getting pushed through I won't profit, there won't be a supply issue of multi family lots. Those with increased property taxes as if they own a high rise will probably loose there shirt, pretty dumb when the govenment makes a law then back dates it 10 years, I imagine there will be some lawsuits coming up.
Won’t tank because now there is more potential in the land from the up zoning. Now high rises aren’t mostly restricted to downtown Vancouver and commercial land.
@@Observer168 More potential yes but the current owner has to sell immediately because they can't afford hiked property taxes and developers don't want to buy it because interest rates and building costs are so high.
Or do you think developers will buy these lots and sit on them until it makes more economic sense to start building?
@@DaveGrant developers love to hoard land. Holborn Groups owns 15 acres in the Little Mountain area of Vancouver and mostly undeveloped. There are still a bunch of plots purchased on the old Expo 89 lands still undeveloped. It’s probably gone up 5 times in value since purchased.
She instills so much confidence. 😂
The west coast express is the most under utilized transit system in Vancouver and it could be a gold mine for the city. More stations could be added and surrounding land could be leased or sold for billions to developers to build mixed use developments all along the route of the west coast express.
Canada is the only country in the G7 without a high speed rail system. There have been talks about a high speed rail system from Vancouver to Seattle but investment in the housing affordability should be a priority. Trains can go up to 200 km/h without major upgrades to our tracks.
Mixed use real estate along the West Coast Express is exactly what we need to increase housing supply with a transit system that stretches from the Vancouver Waterfront to Chilliwack. Prioritize people over freight like in the USA and put the rail system to better use. Rush hour traffic getting in and out of Vancouver is horrendous.
Developments along the West Coast express would help stream line housing and transportation. We would need the developers to pitch this to the city of Vancouver. Imagine living in an affordable condo development in Mission right above the train station and being able to reach the Vancouver water front in 30 minutes instead of being struck in traffic for 2 hours.
Tens of thousands of people living along and using the West Coast Express would mean thousands of cars off our roads and billions in funds to the BC transit for upgrades. Take a ride along the West Coast Express and all you see is tons of commercial land, huge parking lots and empty commercial buildings with water front views that could be better used for housing.
What you're saying makes sense but money doesn't grow on trees. People have to realize those cars were purchased used from toronto. The rails and cars are already strained at their current occupancy rate. The stations would have to be built. The tracks would have to be updated. The cars themselves would have to be replaced over time. You're talking hundreds of millions of dollars. Probably into the billions. And then of course there's the SkyTrain system. We haven't begun to pay for the Evergreen line which is being constructed as we speak. You have to factor the cost of these things into the equation. It's all well and good to go out and live along the west coast Express line somewhere but the rates are going up, the taxes are going up, the cost of that is going up. See link below for an interesting recent story on the west coast Express and the need to do upgrades. Vancouver was already one of the most expensive cities in North America to live in and definitely the most expensive in Canada prior to this latest real estate fiasco. Just think how much more it's going to be to live here in the next decade.
dailyhive.com/vancouver/west-coast-express-commuter-rail-new-tracks
I think this is a really good idea for looking far into the future. It’s too bad they didn’t expand the sky train after Expo 86.
@@Joe-mz6dc it will cost billions but it will benefit the people in a major way. Infrastructure always needs to be upgraded or it just ages and looses functionality. There will be a return on investment since land around newly built stations can be leased out or sold. Hong Kong has been doing this for decades and it’s become profitable. This will take decades to implement so you won’t see anything built for 20-30 years.
The gov't needs to relinquish more land - which is completely outside of this "city" issue. Many do not want to live in a city, nevermind a 15 minute cement he**. Zoning needs to change in rural areas too, in the interior, so people can leave the cities and have a small dwelling on some land if they choose. Still too, too many restrictions even if it's "rural" or "no zoning". All types of restrictions need to be changed or scrapped outside of the large populace.
Canada is a huge place and we’re having trouble with not enough residential space? Ridiculous.
You’re right. They could open up some Crown land as well as allowing more density on rural land.
Mate, please turn up the volume on the loonie hour podcast. Cheers 👌
Noted
Tax for air
Where can we get the map with the future stations, like the one you presented here?
Thanks for the updates, Steve.
Houses near skytrains or future skytrains are going to skyrocket in value 3-10x if they automatically get rezoned to super high density. Hear comes the land gold rush
Or will it have the opposite affect? There will be so much land available for developers to pursue, the "specialness" of buildable land is lessened and I can see the values decrease. Developers are still going to need to offer a decent return to get people out of their houses, especially if they have lived in the house for 10+ years and are not affected by the tax increase. So who knows where this will go. @Steve what is your take on the value of land going forward?
@@freedomliberty83 Land should not devalue, because there are not enough construction workers in HCOL areas to rapidly construct new dwellings. We can maybe increase our rate 30-40%? Even if the land is rapidly available, and permitting massively simplifies due to changes in the law, construction is still limited in speed by hammers on the ground. CMHC says we need 6m housing units by 2030 - so we need to boost construction by about +150%.
We still need Zoning. Upgraded our Building Code and maximized the use of the land. Reduce the use of Parking.
Steve the problem is inflation. They have devalued the currency from all the borrowing done since 2016 I would say. More currency to buy the same things and we're paying for it now. Everything costs more! Sure you can build more units but if nobody can afford them that problem is not going away bro.
The units are still selling, it’s just the ones buying are all above average income earners.
Will this allow people to put tiny houses and ADUs on suburban lots?
U should put up a nice framed picture behind you.
get into your bug pod and smart city vancouver
I generally support the BC initiative, it will be very effective to remedy the structural supply problems.
But I think there should be exemptions or exclusions for places like Steveston, West Vancouver, etc.
This will destroy West Vancouver, if it goes through as is. The population could go up by 10x there, and the Lions Gate bridge couldn't possibly handle that.
Plus, it would be really odd to see a bunch of townhouses on a lot surrounded immediately by mansions on all sides.
Some parts West Vancouver is too expensive to develop many mansions are over $10 million dollars each.
There talking about building condo towers without parking garages.
No townhouses will be allowed, will only be zoned for 4 to 20 stories.
They will attract people who dont drive, as the future is less fossil fuels.
The bridge traffic will be unaffected.
Also remember Park Royal area is property of the squamish nation.
Transport Canada will not relent on max 146 ft tall buildings near YVR no matter what the zoning. This is why buildings in Richmond all look the same height, all under 146 ft.
highrise buildings can be designed to fit into historic communities....
LOL. Skytrain was massively at capacity when built. Canada line is already packed 24/7 How will all these new residents in towers near skytrain get around ? Drive cars ?
Add more train cars and increase frequency. Look at Tokyo and Hong Kong as an example
I mean developers are already getting busted at current supply/demand level, it’s not like interest rates will go back to almost zero anytime soon, they’d be crazy to start mass building knowing what kind of margin/competition they’d be facing after the new policies. The gov wins by all means though, taxes will go up without anything new at all.
Many deals go behind closed doors. Some development projects are interest free loans from the government.
B.C. government gave developer $211M interest-free loan in Little Mountain land sale
Purchase and sale agreement sheds light on 2008 deal that saw Holborn Properties acquire lands for $334M
@12:27 Steve admits low interest rates are inflationary.
"Didn't see it coming" Steve?
Japan has had low interest rates for decades. It’s low immigration rates and negative population growth that’s the biggest factor.
@@Observer168 Canada's immigration rate is 3%. Next
What’s 3% of 40 million? It’s the highest in the G7 and probably the world.
@@Observer168 I thought you meant that lower immigration rates and negative population growth were inflationary. (Keynesian economics)
Can you please walk me through how you believe population growth effects inflation?
@@Picklemedia You only need to look at the what’s happening in Canada. Demand exceeding supply!
I think it was more of a rhetorical question to point to the explanation of a supply issue
Bring on the new Land Bank gold rush. If you can acquire or hold onto any SFH near any of the unilateral new rules, you will be happy in 10 years. Who needs to worry?
15 min city policy?
lol.. 2014 my rent in a 1bd was $750, today it's $1600 for a bachelor suite in an absolute shithole of a building.. Go online and look up places for $1600, you'll find 'rooms for rent' w 2 or 3 strangers.. This is only going to get worse...in years down the road when all these new developments are finally built, those 1bd apartments will be $3,000 a month
BC needs to get rid of the owner builder bureaucracy... Either way, I own a spare lot and will not be building anything on it until these rates go down. I really want to build, I am ready to build, but I feel I would be crazy to do it in this environment...
Gotta LOVE this David Eby fella !
As for the BoC's Carolyn Rogers....
The Real Estate Price declines may not be noticeable as acute events in specific markets(crashs), rather, they may be manifested by more longer term trends to lower valuations, or even static valuations attenuated lower in real terms through persistent "real" cpi inflation.
Yeah, we should all reach out and shake Eby's hand for his suggestion to build 15-minute cities. Give your head a shake.
@@Joe-mz6dc
Shake ur own melon there dipsh*t !
First thing Eby needs to do is bring back some rights to landlords. NO ONE wants to rent their place right now, because tenants have all the rights and can seriously affect the lives of people who are just trying to provide housing.
It means 15 minute cities, wake up
Look at Hong Kong and you will see the future of Vancouver
This is great in the sense more housing can be built... BUT... there are places all over Vancouver under construction that can't be completed because we have a huge shortage of experienced trades. As the builds go up, immigration and migration will continue, the population is not going to stop and wait. This change may slightly loosen the stranglehold, it will not remove the rope.
The fact that the BOC knew they could have bring down real estate values by 33 percent shows that they and in extention the Canadian government is ok with real estate values falling dramatically. This destroys the bull argument that the government will prop up real estate as its too big to fail and the economy cant survive. Sorry
All bark and no bite.
@@Observer168You call raising the rate at the fastest pace in history and saying they expected housing market to crash as no bite? You don't feel the teeth? Sucks to be a boiling frog.
@@Jo-mf2vu that’s after the most amount of money printed in history. BOC has already backed off. I don’t see massive foreclosures anywhere.
@@Observer168Foreclosures in mass won't happen, just a lot of distressed sales. Patience, the pain is just beginning.
You failed to address affordability, more high density doesn’t necessarily make home costs cheeper. 🤔 what makes you think more available housing means lower costs?
There aren’t many options for this unless you expect tax payers money used to build homes. Building “affordable” housing isn’t profitable so nobody will build it.
Developers are going to build at these lend rates? Highly doubtful.
It could still make sense if permitting time goes down. For example, if someone bought a property in Vancouver for $5m back when rates were 3%, then rezoned it at a cost of $2.8m over 6 years, plus had to pay 3% on 50% of the property that wasn't cash, they'd have another $450k to recoup. That puts their all-in cost at $8.3m
If streamlining goes through, they could buy the same property for $5m when rates are 7%, submit their plans at a cost of $200k, then get building in 8 months, for a total cost of $5.5m
It then becomes a question of whether people will buy units at 7%. The units can be sold a bit cheaper due to the nearly $2.8m in cost savings, but that might only work out to $100k of extra wiggle room per unit? Developers will likely carefully gauge purchase demand at a given pricepoint before taking the plunge and starting construction.
How about traffice，education，hospital and safety？
At 7:00 mins in, a chart says "Minimum allowable height (storeys)" and then under that says "up to 20". WHAT? ... so 1 is "up to 20" ... so there is NO minimum height. What is the purpose of adding "up to .... " before the number? JUST USE THE NUMBER.
Why can't they just be CLEAR? What is so difficult about CLARITY? Dumb it down, so that us non-lawyer types can understand.
good having a minim hight is silly.
This guarantees way, way, way higher immigration levels.
And they all move to Vancouver or Toronto.
Yeup,people ain’t seeing the picture
Look at Hong Kong and you will see the future of Vancouver
@Observer168 I've heard that Vancouver was designed by the same architects who designed Hong Kong. Scary.