The effects of the downturn are beginning to sink in. People are being impacted by the long-term decline in property prices and the housing market. I recently sold my house in the Sacramento area, and I want to invest my lump-sum profit in the stock market before prices start to rise again. Is now the right moment to buy or not?
Given the current market situation and the precarious state of the economy, I would recommend refraining from investing in stocks for a while or, alternatively, seeking guidance from a financial advisor. However, keeping a portion of your wealth in gold remains a wise choice.
I completely agree. I have been consistent with my profit regardless of the market conditions. I got into the market early in 2019 and the constant downtrends and losses discouraged me, so I sold off. I got back in December 2020 and this time with guidance from an investment adviser who was recommended by a colleague
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Margaret Johnson Arndt for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
Totally agree with you, Steve. You are one of the first to discuss this touchy subject and it’s implications logically and subjectively. Land value will not increase significantly immediately, but the tax bill will… I also wonder how property owners in more luxurious neighborhoods will react… like will they be ok with their neighbor lot has 4 or 6 mini houses built in it?
interesting video, i have to admit. kudos. first that i can recall i have seen of yours. i wouldn't be adverse to watch another. you definitely do your research and you have knowledge and facts on what i also think are KEY issues in BC. ill be keeping my eyes open. cheers.
My taxes went down in 2016 when they fully reassessed all property in Toronto because my property was built after the previous assessment and therefore I was paying based on a more recent valuation than the majority of home owners.
The municipality is most likely not going to adjust the mill rate to keep the same revenue, they would (some say should) increase property tax across the board to start laying the infrastructure of forced densification. This also gives them the perfect timing for increase revenue while shifting the blame onto the provincial government, since we know several municipalities are already struggling with balancing their budget.
If price growth slows to 3-4% instead of 10% annually as you suggest at the end of the video, then one could reasonable expect at least some investor interest to pivot away from RE and into equities, securities, commodities etc. This may lead to even further slowing of value appreciation and, hopefully, be part of the story of returning to affordability in a country where most new condos in metropolitan areas are 50+ % investor owned.
Ontario passed Bill 23 in late 2022 which among other things, overwrote all municipal zoning to prescribe 3 units on all urban designated residential land, (triplex, or duplex plus coach house). The impact on infrastructure from this gentle density is trivial. Over a year in, permits are starting to come through the pipeline and we'd be lucky if even 10% of the homes added these units. I reckon it'll be even less then 5%
It’ll take a longggg time for people to do these renovations and add multiple units it’s only going to be investors . Aging demographic that we have and lots of gen x and boomers aren’t going to turn their homes into 4 plexs. They don’t have the money to do it. It’ll be a slow switch over and that’s not to say everyone will do it. The most valuable home will be the true single family in the future .
It is one thing to simply decide to add more structures to existing lots, but what about the required infrastucture? Existing water mains, power substations, sewer mains and treatment plants were designed for the densities that exist. All of those may need to be upgraded in some areas to accommodate the increased density, at great cost. Not to mention the inconvenience of tearing up the streets to make these upgrades.
The biggest problem I have with this is that the infrastructure isn't keeping up with population growth. We already have public parks that you need a reservation to get in and you're limited to how long you can stay, there aren't enough schools and even if staffing was available there aren't enough hospital beds to meet demand. I would be curious what the plan is to deal with these issues.
Great post as always. I watched your recent YT video and I have 1 quick question for you about that: you mentioned the property tax will rise for people living within the X radius of bus exchanges etc, which is somewhat of a double-edged sword for them while also making their property much more valuable. On this same topic - is this also the case for every person with a detached home? Will their taxes now rise due to the "best possible use" of their land based on the fact that developers could in theory now be replacing their homes with several units instead? Does that mean every person's property tax in the province should in theory go up as well?
If the BC govt has dictated zoning now, why is it that I see a couple of "proposed" signage in my area ? If the city can not say no to the developer as far as putting up a allowable 8 storey structure why does the signage need to be there still along with citizens meet ups or whatever it says on the signs?
Hello Steve. What about the infrastructure though ? If the population goes x3 or x4 in certain areas, how easy is it in BC to bring the power and water supply ?
Basically BC will be a slum in future. The charm of coming to Canada and seeing the nicely landscaped houses and living a quiet life is over. Who would build a nice home when your neighbour might build a 6plex next to it. I came here in 2015 and saw anything that can go wrong go wrong here.
Was there a grandfathering of property tax for people in TOD areas that have ownership over a certain period of time or will old people have to sell their homes?
After living there for 10 years it doesn't apply to you. that's what I heard in a previous video from Steve, and I also read that somewhere on a government website.
To be successful in markets, traders should understand the crossover between asset classes & liquidity flow. Patricia Cora focuses on Multi-asset trading, a single strategy to manage risk, profit, and the code or the actual decision-making across multi-asset classes. Her skills set is top notch.
Does the density allowance include sites that are ALR or rural areas? Ie. You live in a city with more than 5000 people but you live on an acreage that currently only allows 1 single family house. Will you now be able to build multiple units on that property?
Still waiting for the Safeway redevelopment at Broadway and Commercial for over 10 years! Thanks Nimbys! Maybe this will finally get things moving with regards to this very important public transportation hub where 2 rapid transit lines intersect. I am with you on this Steve and I am too a realtor (~25yrs) as well as a former residential and commercial lender (~10yrs). Great commentary on these new pieces of legislation as always. Suscribed!
this is the one physical things that annoys the fuck out of me every time is go to that area. those 'hippes' can take their no tower signs and shove them.
Last week Steve mentioned developers can not pencil out new development. How then can they pay premiums for this new TOD zoned land. New sales $1750 per sq ft versus market of $1200/sqft is a gap of $500/sq ft. This has to come out of land cost to move forward with any development.
Steve you said will land value actually go up since everyone’s zoning changed but realize not everyone’s going to be selling so you said they have many options (investors / builders) but that’s only true if the market is flooded with listings. I can’t see it happening
Bringing in less people would solve the problems. Its costing us more than the tax raised from them, which is the only real point of bringing in immigrants, tax revenue not bankruptcy!!!
As much as I don't like the NDP, they've invoked the TFB clause against the NIMBY municipalities. Eventually, large, growing urban centres will evolve like Hong Kong.
This seems like another way, through forcing housing density, which inevitably results in people giving up vehicles because of lack of parking spaces an inadequate roadways
The infrastructure was never built, and can't be built or maintained to support the density they are proposing. It would all seem to be more of a tax grab. The BC government know full well that many older residents and families that bought or own their home will be forced out.
What price growth? We got most of it when immigration and rate were basically zero, 2020/21. What do u think is going to happen when rates stay in the 4% plus level for years. Good luck to overleveraged and home values.
Peolle should look at who holds the lands in BC. I know some real esatte developers and investors who laugh at why things cost so much here in BC from metro Vancouver to the Okanagan to more central BC up to prince george. Its partialled directly resulting from the provincial government holding 94% of the lands and not even making it possible for canadians in BC to own part or amounts of lands in BC. Up until campbells time in government a canadian citizen could apply and buy land from the province lands as long as they werent in parks or ecological sensitive areas. Now that is a no go and you can only apply to lease for 30 years with no option to buy and in most cases renew the lease so why other outside of animal grazing. If the provonce would allow this to work better it would free up lands, lower pricing, take the cost and or lack of funding on the province to manage the lands as ot would then be up to the person, family, or new community, and would help make BC more livavle for all from cities to rural to middle of nowhere. Thoughts?
When the ndp changed the ALR rules to ban secondary homes outside of housing farm employees and that went badly and was changed back, my MLA told me they hadn't thought of the unintended consequences of their decision. I see that unintended consequence line being used again in this new land reform. They slap things together too fast.
So basically anyone who owns a single family home . The government will mandate these homes to be bought out and demolished built the new zoning requirements to build multiple housing developments.
Is this “tax bill” going to push demand for transit isolated homes? Are homeowners going to seek out tax increased sheltered locations to move to. Are there not areas where bus stops are every 800 m?
Dont worry, going to be alot more inventory as home owners either have no choice to sell or are foreclosured on. Rates wont be going down enough to change these peoples misfortunes. Greed kills. Boc is the main reason for this since they kept rates at emergency levels for 15 years. Building more will only hurt these over leveraged individuals
Depends where you own, you are right about boc, they stated last week the will be cutting rates by 150 basis points, approximately may 2024, so you could be looking at 3.6% loan rates, prices will go up slightly and anyone within a park on single dwelling, will likely be approached by developers for land acquisition's. Take a look at Maple ridge, mission area. This decision will make or break most homeowners, sell for a good profit and move or watch the retiree's refuse and all around them row homes go up. If you don't want out of the lower mainland it will hurt if your looking too move north or east or even out of the province it will beneficial
There will be massive job losses way before a housing crash. Unfortunately it’s the average wage earners that normally lose their jobs and those weren’t the ones buying in the last 5 years.
I don’t think the implications of this law were thought out. Look for the Province to quickly change its tune once the unforeseen consequences start to emerge and local government and citizens push back.
Yes! Like my previous comment stated. There are to many incompetent and arrogant politicians who just don’t have the common sense to understand the consequences of their inept policies. For example you can’t have a multitude of four plex’s in an urban area without parking. Cars aren’t going anywhere anytime soon so you need to take this into consideration. Also, mass immigration is showing its ugly head and how it’s negatively impacting communities. What needs to change is the reckless immigration the incompetent politicians are pushing. Then you won’t need to worry about densification of cities.
This densification will only increase the cost of the land that these single family homes currently sit on. Combined with the sustained high construction and financing costs, how does this solve housing affordability? It’s not just a supply and demand problem, it’s the inflated cost of land, servicing and construction and the resulting ever increasing cost of housing that will continue to keep most Canadians out of the market. The only solution is to limit immigration until Canada can provide affordable housing and medical care to all existing Canadians. This will take time, there is no quick fix
I live within 800 meters of transit and I called my local MLA and she advised me that it's not going to be auto zoned for high density. She just said high density could not be blocked by municipalities. My concern when I called her was the taxes, and she said assessments would not change unless my specific home was going to be zoned for high density. I am not sure who is telling the truth now
your lying dude, you said you called and talked to your local MLA.. lol, they dont answer phones, reply to emails, you cant talk to anyone who works for the government. LIAR>
@redafro9773 I am not lying. I live in Pitt Meadows, and the MLA i contacted is Lisa Beare. I can provide proof. I have the email from her assistant when we set up a time for a call.
To me, it sounds like your MLA does not understand what will happen... Of course your taxes will go up... they will tax land which can only be used for commercial development.
@dougfredell6972 I agree with you, but i think she lied to me. She is an NDP MLA, afterall. If you're in 800 meters from transit your taxes will skyrocket. And unless a developer is willing to purchase your land, you won't be able to sell your home privately because no regular family will want to foot the high tax bill. There's going to be so much land available to developers that most of this new zoned land will just sit with the owner and the owner will be forced to pay the tax and will be unable to sell
you may be forgetting that the municipalities will add in more CAC's to this Provincial "free" density. They will get their pound of flesh. In some circumstances the actual land value will go down. TOL is driving land values down as we speak. Higher DCC's, Higher GVRD DCC's, Higher translink DCC's, Higher CAC's, higher levies and DCC's everywhere. Don't foll yourself, the end buyer doesn't pay for these fees, the land owner does by way of a lower land value. Another hidden tax....just driving more money to the governments.
Good analysis! I have to wonder if this wont drop costs but it will just make developers and land owners rich. iMO we would need a post war style single family boom to fix the market and there seems zero appetite for that. I lived in a few of those 1000sq ft post war houses with generous sized lots and they really are the ideal for young families.
I saw Ravi in his G Wagon cruising the Tod Areas in Kelowna and Kamloops with his brother this weekend!! They stayed at my Airbnb. Edit: I gouged them)
I wouldn't doubt it, id do a deep dive into Ravi's families real estate holdings. Wouldn't be surprised if they already own a tonne of SFH in these Tod areas
@DummMoney-rr1fi What utilities??? You drill your own well & put in your own septic field. Your internet is a wireless connection and you hook up to BC Hydro if it's at your property line. If not you put in solar/wind.
Hey Steve, when are you going to have Ravi on the show? Looney hour? You and the boys need to ask him the tough questions about the unintended consequences for the STR ban and these unilaterally passed laws.
Bullshit, that's cause there are zero building starts. Once even 1/4 of the proposed building commences all the trades will be working overtime!! Who will build the additional 3/4 of needed supply? HGTV warriors like me? Lol....Ravi is smoking too much legal marijuana
Infill intensification = shrinkflation I think we should keep going until we live in tents because if you owe nothing you will be happy. Also think of all the commissions that Steve will make. That is what's important here.
Infrastructure, parking, privacy, noise, fire suppression all things these political fools never even considered . Then the problems arise and then what ?
It will likely be limited or no parking. I'm too lazy to walk 800 metres to a station but people will. They want people to not have a car and take transit, choose your conspiracy theory for that if you like.
@@Observer168 You are "free" to buy a car. If your condo/apt doesn't have a parking spot you can't actually own, though. We have a lot of "freedoms" like that here. When your government cuts carbon emissions by 75% in 6 years I don't think there will be very many cars in any big city.
@goodhuman123 Where the heck do you live? I live a ferry ride away from vancouver plus half hour and The real estate prices here have gone insane. So have the rents. As a matter of fact the entire mid vancouver island has gotten ridiculous. So please tell me where the heck is this cheap real estate?
@goodhuman123 my house is worth 4 x what it was less than 20 years ago. 4 TIMES! My son cannot move out. A bachelor apartment in my town is going for sixteen hundred dollars a month. I don't see much difference.
negative negative negative and then u won the lottery. LOL. seniors will defer taxes and also wont be a lot of options.... ppl wont sell because no where to go.
@@DummMoney-rr1fi have you ever seen a TH-cam comment that has a number of replies, but you can't see them all? This was the case and I had to filter comments to 'newest' to see what you had written. You could see your comment but we couldn't
This won’t hold and it’s a very poor idea. If they are planning on allowing that much of an increase in density, you need to upgrade utilities. Roads will have to be dug up to upgrade water and gas mains, and hydro will have to be upgraded. If you want to 6x the population when the existing utilities are only serving X amount of current households, imagine 6x people flushing toilets and doing laundry. I’ve lived in Vancouver and it’s brutal. They definitely never planned for the population boom it had over the past few decades. The traffic system is like driving through a small city. People are leaving just as much as they’re arriving. These are stupid ideas by stupid people. Unless their plan is to run people out of their homes with high property taxes so investors can scoop up properties to build on, then what happens when we’re also constantly running out of construction material? You know how long it takes to build a 6 plex? It doesn’t happen in a month. This will be a long long process and fueled by retarded speculation.
Unfortunately 2024 will be the year of massive layoffs. I am sure everyone knows at least one person that has lost their job or is currently not working. Many bears have gone quiet because they know that they could be next. People might think massive job losses will result in a housing crash but I doubt this will happen. There will be a correction but not the crash that many were hoping for. Over 40% of the homes in Canada are mortgage free and the ones that bought over 10 years ago have a ton of equity and small mortgages because prices were less than half of what they are now. The regular wage earners have been totally priced out in the last 5 years and the only ones buying were millionaire immigrants, rich investor, rich students or have rich parents. The ones that normally get let go first are normally customer service, sales and other average wage earners. There is a bigger chance to lose your job in 2024 than it is to purchase your first home. It’s probably the investors that will be buying everything at a discount.
Jesus H christ BC does not have a housing crisis. BC has an issue with afford ability. It not interest rates issues either. It's was a group of new buyer, buying because of FOMO and out bidding each other and kept out bidding and did not wait. The group of " I can't wait, I want now" well hows it working for you. Even at 2% rates, these people borrowed 4 to 6 hundred thousand for a crack house in Vancouver. The banks are to blame too, by lending to said people to purchase. It never cease to amaze me the ignorance of people when buying a house they for get at the price they paid, the property taxes will also go up as well the the house insurance. For got that heh!! So, for those with no patience, good luck to you and realize THE INTEREST RATES WILL NOT GO DOWN FOR YEARS AND YEARS...UNLESS A CRASH DEPRESSION. By then, there will be nothing worth saving for some.
I notice a number of the comments are grumbling about loss of charm in their neighborhoods. Or density problems. That this will only benefit the rich. What planet are you living on? I live on Vancouver island. People cannot find housing. At any price. R v parks that were intended for tourism and recreation are filled with people living in rvs because they have no choice. Young adults cannot afford to move out of their parents place because the rent is eighty percent of their entry level job. Lower wage jobs cannot be filled because no one can afford to live on them considering the rents. This, by the way, is the reason that they've used to bring in immigrants that we also don't have housing for. Houses in my area have quadrupled in price in twenty years. And no that's not a typo. And on top of all of that, if you want to build a suite or a separate living space on your lot, even for family, you can't. I know a couple that owns a half acre property with existing house.They wanted to build a house on it for their son and daughter in law. The city won't let them. The city told them that they have to have at least a full acre to have two houses.
Politicians are some of the most hated, ignorant and stupid clowns known to exist. I don't know of a single person (yes, sample size is small haha) who would want to live in a hyper dense area like this right beside train tracks. I'd also fathom that newcommers to Canada wouldn't immediately want a shoe box / dog crate in the sky either. They want a home and a bit of space too.
The entire model of STRs, including LTRs where renters pay your million buck mortgage is destroyed. You will compete against massive overcapacity over time. Are you a boiling frog or do you see the future. If you are a spec owner who rents, your massive mortgage will not be covered by revenue. Open your eyes
@@Observer168Buddy, you are a frog boiling in a hopium stew. New York, Tokyo and Hong Kong are productive wealth generators. Toronto and Vancouver rely on the RE ponzi scheme to generate wealth for its inhabitants. When that ponzi is broken so is the wealth.
Let's get the basics right on this guy. First, his business is selling real estate -- not knowledge for consumers. Second, the greater the shortage, the higher the prices -- the better for Steve's business. Third, he thinks the Bank of Canada shouldn't raise rates because that would hurt his income. But SOMEHOW, he's scraping by, what with his rooftop condo in False Creek with an expansive open-air Jacuzzi. His status as an "analyst" means he can lasso more of the unwitting, thinking he is smarter than them, is a "neutral" and, in fact, doesn't have a horse in the race. LOL. Please reply. Steve. I'm sure you disagree, but I'm all ears. Stay away from personal attacks and stay on my three topics. Sorry, I'm not part of the RE cult, but you can still reply. Please keep it clean.
The BC NDP has been on the war path against private property ownership rights, the backbone of democracy using the housing crisis of cover. They have attacked strata properties forcing numerous to vote to become 65+ only, forcing numerous mandatory reports - they continue to tell private property owners what they can or can't do and who they must rent to. Now they are overriding all municipalities , community input etc to force Hong Kong style densification. Anyone, regardless of where they stand on the housing issue, should be very worried and should be outraged at this erorsion of democracy. This is communist China/Soviet era actions.
Amen Don, the new affordability factor is how much you can rent out portions of your Primary residence on STR platforms if there are any left. Well done Ravi/Eby. I don't want to forget to mention the impact they are having on the tourism industry. Also, Don what do you think they will spend enforcing these rules, and how much tax revenue will be lost when the black market home swaps, rentals come online as a result of the STR ban?
@@DummMoney-rr1fi honesty I don't know, I am more of a long term thinker, the law of unintended consequences is a hard one to master. Never underestimate the ability of the government to piss away tax money on dumb things. To be honest, long term we will have an over supply, because now we can build 4 plexes everywhere, and every real estate bro is going to jump on it. They will have to build them to code, so that will make a small building boom for competent tradesmen. Good time to be an electric carpenter, that's all I know.
@@Observer168 fvck that, my next move is being a realtor. All I have to do is answer my phone and open doors, my assistant will do the paperwork while I eat lunch and so whatever I want. Easy peasy, lemon squeezy
The effects of the downturn are beginning to sink in. People are being impacted by the long-term decline in property prices and the housing market. I recently sold my house in the Sacramento area, and I want to invest my lump-sum profit in the stock market before prices start to rise again. Is now the right moment to buy or not?
Given the current market situation and the precarious state of the economy, I would recommend refraining from investing in stocks for a while or, alternatively, seeking guidance from a financial advisor. However, keeping a portion of your wealth in gold remains a wise choice.
I completely agree. I have been consistent with my profit regardless of the market conditions. I got into the market early in 2019 and the constant downtrends and losses discouraged me, so I sold off. I got back in December 2020 and this time with guidance from an investment adviser who was recommended by a colleague
Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Margaret Johnson Arndt for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
Totally agree with you, Steve. You are one of the first to discuss this touchy subject and it’s implications logically and subjectively. Land value will not increase significantly immediately, but the tax bill will… I also wonder how property owners in more luxurious neighborhoods will react… like will they be ok with their neighbor lot has 4 or 6 mini houses built in it?
interesting video, i have to admit. kudos. first that i can recall i have seen of yours. i wouldn't be adverse to watch another. you definitely do your research and you have knowledge and facts on what i also think are KEY issues in BC. ill be keeping my eyes open. cheers.
My taxes went down in 2016 when they fully reassessed all property in Toronto because my property was built after the previous assessment and therefore I was paying based on a more recent valuation than the majority of home owners.
We are from the government and we are here to help you.
The municipality is most likely not going to adjust the mill rate to keep the same revenue, they would (some say should) increase property tax across the board to start laying the infrastructure of forced densification.
This also gives them the perfect timing for increase revenue while shifting the blame onto the provincial government, since we know several municipalities are already struggling with balancing their budget.
If price growth slows to 3-4% instead of 10% annually as you suggest at the end of the video, then one could reasonable expect at least some investor interest to pivot away from RE and into equities, securities, commodities etc. This may lead to even further slowing of value appreciation and, hopefully, be part of the story of returning to affordability in a country where most new condos in metropolitan areas are 50+ % investor owned.
Ontario passed Bill 23 in late 2022 which among other things, overwrote all municipal zoning to prescribe 3 units on all urban designated residential land, (triplex, or duplex plus coach house).
The impact on infrastructure from this gentle density is trivial. Over a year in, permits are starting to come through the pipeline and we'd be lucky if even 10% of the homes added these units. I reckon it'll be even less then 5%
It’ll take a longggg time for people to do these renovations and add multiple units it’s only going to be investors . Aging demographic that we have and lots of gen x and boomers aren’t going to turn their homes into 4 plexs. They don’t have the money to do it. It’ll be a slow switch over and that’s not to say everyone will do it. The most valuable home will be the true single family in the future .
truth@@b-rare
It is one thing to simply decide to add more structures to existing lots, but what about the required infrastucture?
Existing water mains, power substations, sewer mains and treatment plants were designed for the densities that exist.
All of those may need to be upgraded in some areas to accommodate the increased density, at great cost. Not to mention the inconvenience of tearing up the streets to make these upgrades.
developers pay extra to upgrade water mains/etc.. and the increased density increases the tax base to cover the increased maintenance costs.
There are already massive infrastructure upgrades happening. You just need to look it up.
Then tell Trudeau to stop immigration
@@playgroundprotagonisIf the new structures are done individually there will be no deep pocket developers to fund that.
Higher density means higher property values which means higher tax revenue which mean there will be more money to upgrade that infrastructure.
I for one am very excited for all the future traffic congestion due to the construction!
The biggest problem I have with this is that the infrastructure isn't keeping up with population growth. We already have public parks that you need a reservation to get in and you're limited to how long you can stay, there aren't enough schools and even if staffing was available there aren't enough hospital beds to meet demand. I would be curious what the plan is to deal with these issues.
How similar is this approach to what New Zealand’s? How did NZ fair in the end?
Great information ... even better analysis ... and thought provoking comments ... thank you!
Good Job Steven. Bucks hockey!
Great post as always. I watched your recent YT video and I have 1 quick question for you about that: you mentioned the property tax will rise for people living within the X radius of bus exchanges etc, which is somewhat of a double-edged sword for them while also making their property much more valuable. On this same topic - is this also the case for every person with a detached home? Will their taxes now rise due to the "best possible use" of their land based on the fact that developers could in theory now be replacing their homes with several units instead? Does that mean every person's property tax in the province should in theory go up as well?
If the BC govt has dictated zoning now, why is it that I see a couple of "proposed" signage in my area ? If the city can not say no to the developer as far as putting up a allowable 8 storey structure why does the signage need to be there still along with citizens meet ups or whatever it says on the signs?
cambie corridor rezoning did NOT bring property taxes up. just a fyi
Now we see how the 15min cities will be built - on top of each other
Just like Hong Kong and Shanghai
You prefer single family neighbourhoods where the minimum price to buy is like 1.5 million?
Prices are plummeting in Vancouver, the downtown condo market is crashing and investors are bailing right left and centre!
Thanks for the update
Hello Steve.
What about the infrastructure though ?
If the population goes x3 or x4 in certain areas, how easy is it in BC to bring the power and water supply ?
More houses = More taxes = better infrastructure. Look at Europe for a example
Politicians don't use logic or facts. And they sure as hell don't think their policies through.
Yes and sewage systems etc seems like upgrades are needed and that’s where increases taxes come into play
Always excellent, steve
👊🏼
Basically BC will be a slum in future. The charm of coming to Canada and seeing the nicely landscaped houses and living a quiet life is over. Who would build a nice home when your neighbour might build a 6plex next to it.
I came here in 2015 and saw anything that can go wrong go wrong here.
SF zoning is an eyesore. It should have never existed.
That's why I left.
It's not BC's fault. BC is responding to the housing crisis. It was created by Trudeau who doubled immigration
Single family zoning is a scam. It should have never been implemented in the first place.
Was there a grandfathering of property tax for people in TOD areas that have ownership over a certain period of time or will old people have to sell their homes?
After living there for 10 years it doesn't apply to you. that's what I heard in a previous video from Steve, and I also read that somewhere on a government website.
To be successful in markets, traders should understand the crossover between asset classes & liquidity flow. Patricia Cora focuses on Multi-asset trading, a single strategy to manage risk, profit, and the code or the actual decision-making across multi-asset classes. Her skills set is top notch.
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Does the density allowance include sites that are ALR or rural areas? Ie. You live in a city with more than 5000 people but you live on an acreage that currently only allows 1 single family house. Will you now be able to build multiple units on that property?
Well they already are really. Every new build I see in alr looks like a hotel
On the money, as usual 🔥
Excellent video Steve!
Still waiting for the Safeway redevelopment at Broadway and Commercial for over 10 years! Thanks Nimbys! Maybe this will finally get things moving with regards to this very important public transportation hub where 2 rapid transit lines intersect. I am with you on this Steve and I am too a realtor (~25yrs) as well as a former residential and commercial lender (~10yrs). Great commentary on these new pieces of legislation as always. Suscribed!
this is the one physical things that annoys the fuck out of me every time is go to that area. those 'hippes' can take their no tower signs and shove them.
You forgot about all the government development fees. Government charge around $150k in fees on each condo.
Thanks for the great information Really appreciate your time regards Gord
Last week Steve mentioned developers can not pencil out new development. How then can they pay premiums for this new TOD zoned land. New sales $1750 per sq ft versus market of $1200/sqft is a gap of $500/sq ft. This has to come out of land cost to move forward with any development.
Imagine paying $3 million for a house and your new neighbor is on UBI 😂😂😂
It's closer than you think
Does this mean that current 4 plexes have lost significant value? Because they are no longer "rare" properties?
Steve you said will land value actually go up since everyone’s zoning changed but realize not everyone’s going to be selling so you said they have many options (investors / builders) but that’s only true if the market is flooded with listings. I can’t see it happening
Bringing in less people would solve the problems. Its costing us more than the tax raised from them, which is the only real point of bringing in immigrants, tax revenue not bankruptcy!!!
Would also create a lot fewer hard working Canadians building shit
It was inevitable that this was gonna happen. Saw it a mile away.
As much as I don't like the NDP, they've invoked the TFB clause against the NIMBY municipalities.
Eventually, large, growing urban centres will evolve like Hong Kong.
I’m in the 29th station Todd area 6500 sqft lot how much do you think the value will increase next year the land value is 2 million
This seems like another way, through forcing housing density, which inevitably results in people giving up vehicles because of lack of parking spaces an inadequate roadways
The infrastructure was never built, and can't be built or maintained to support the density they are proposing. It would all seem to be more of a tax grab. The BC government know full well that many older residents and families that bought or own their home will be forced out.
Where can I find the TOD areas? Could someone please send me a link? Thank you!
What price growth? We got most of it when immigration and rate were basically zero, 2020/21. What do u think is going to happen when rates stay in the 4% plus level for years. Good luck to overleveraged and home values.
More boxes for investors to profit from and municipalities to soak up taxes through.
Steve, what about lower Mainland - Surrey Delta etc ...
One thing is good , then those high rise land will be expensive, then developer may buy it to rebuild. This will be a high sought land .
Now that my property value has dropped drastically, is my property tax going to be lower?
Peolle should look at who holds the lands in BC. I know some real esatte developers and investors who laugh at why things cost so much here in BC from metro Vancouver to the Okanagan to more central BC up to prince george. Its partialled directly resulting from the provincial government holding 94% of the lands and not even making it possible for canadians in BC to own part or amounts of lands in BC.
Up until campbells time in government a canadian citizen could apply and buy land from the province lands as long as they werent in parks or ecological sensitive areas. Now that is a no go and you can only apply to lease for 30 years with no option to buy and in most cases renew the lease so why other outside of animal grazing.
If the provonce would allow this to work better it would free up lands, lower pricing, take the cost and or lack of funding on the province to manage the lands as ot would then be up to the person, family, or new community, and would help make BC more livavle for all from cities to rural to middle of nowhere.
Thoughts?
Any idea what happens if your property is partially within the 800m radius?
its included
Is it legal?
When the ndp changed the ALR rules to ban secondary homes outside of housing farm employees and that went badly and was changed back, my MLA told me they hadn't thought of the unintended consequences of their decision. I see that unintended consequence line being used again in this new land reform. They slap things together too fast.
Too fast? Its been ongoing for decades, they just have no brains, and nobody voted for eby!
So basically anyone who owns a single family home . The government will mandate these homes to be bought out and demolished built the new zoning requirements to build multiple housing developments.
Is this “tax bill” going to push demand for transit isolated homes? Are homeowners going to seek out tax increased sheltered locations to move to. Are there not areas where bus stops are every 800 m?
Dont worry, going to be alot more inventory as home owners either have no choice to sell or are foreclosured on. Rates wont be going down enough to change these peoples misfortunes. Greed kills. Boc is the main reason for this since they kept rates at emergency levels for 15 years. Building more will only hurt these over leveraged individuals
Depends where you own, you are right about boc, they stated last week the will be cutting rates by 150 basis points, approximately may 2024, so you could be looking at 3.6% loan rates, prices will go up slightly and anyone within a park on single dwelling, will likely be approached by developers for land acquisition's. Take a look at Maple ridge, mission area. This decision will make or break most homeowners, sell for a good profit and move or watch the retiree's refuse and all around them row homes go up. If you don't want out of the lower mainland it will hurt if your looking too move north or east or even out of the province it will beneficial
There will be massive job losses way before a housing crash. Unfortunately it’s the average wage earners that normally lose their jobs and those weren’t the ones buying in the last 5 years.
I don’t think the implications of this law were thought out. Look for the Province to quickly change its tune once the unforeseen consequences start to emerge and local government and citizens push back.
Yes! Like my previous comment stated. There are to many incompetent and arrogant politicians who just don’t have the common sense to understand the consequences of their inept policies. For example you can’t have a multitude of four plex’s in an urban area without parking. Cars aren’t going anywhere anytime soon so you need to take this into consideration. Also, mass immigration is showing its ugly head and how it’s negatively impacting communities. What needs to change is the reckless immigration the incompetent politicians are pushing. Then you won’t need to worry about densification of cities.
Anyone know what happens to community plans that have been approved? Does this take presidence over that?
This densification will only increase the cost of the land that these single family homes currently sit on. Combined with the sustained high construction and financing costs, how does this solve housing affordability? It’s not just a supply and demand problem, it’s the inflated cost of land, servicing and construction and the resulting ever increasing cost of housing that will continue to keep most Canadians out of the market. The only solution is to limit immigration until Canada can provide affordable housing and medical care to all existing Canadians. This will take time, there is no quick fix
How about the 95% of the province that is crown land with no housing…
I live within 800 meters of transit and I called my local MLA and she advised me that it's not going to be auto zoned for high density. She just said high density could not be blocked by municipalities. My concern when I called her was the taxes, and she said assessments would not change unless my specific home was going to be zoned for high density. I am not sure who is telling the truth now
What did you expect, the cities to allow these idiots to do a one size fits all?
your lying dude, you said you called and talked to your local MLA.. lol, they dont answer phones, reply to emails, you cant talk to anyone who works for the government. LIAR>
@redafro9773 I am not lying. I live in Pitt Meadows, and the MLA i contacted is Lisa Beare. I can provide proof. I have the email from her assistant when we set up a time for a call.
To me, it sounds like your MLA does not understand what will happen... Of course your taxes will go up... they will tax land which can only be used for commercial development.
@dougfredell6972 I agree with you, but i think she lied to me. She is an NDP MLA, afterall. If you're in 800 meters from transit your taxes will skyrocket. And unless a developer is willing to purchase your land, you won't be able to sell your home privately because no regular family will want to foot the high tax bill. There's going to be so much land available to developers that most of this new zoned land will just sit with the owner and the owner will be forced to pay the tax and will be unable to sell
you may be forgetting that the municipalities will add in more CAC's to this Provincial "free" density. They will get their pound of flesh. In some circumstances the actual land value will go down. TOL is driving land values down as we speak. Higher DCC's, Higher GVRD DCC's, Higher translink DCC's, Higher CAC's, higher levies and DCC's everywhere. Don't foll yourself, the end buyer doesn't pay for these fees, the land owner does by way of a lower land value. Another hidden tax....just driving more money to the governments.
Good analysis! I have to wonder if this wont drop costs but it will just make developers and land owners rich. iMO we would need a post war style single family boom to fix the market and there seems zero appetite for that. I lived in a few of those 1000sq ft post war houses with generous sized lots and they really are the ideal for young families.
I saw Ravi in his G Wagon cruising the Tod Areas in Kelowna and Kamloops with his brother this weekend!! They stayed at my Airbnb.
Edit: I gouged them)
I wouldn't doubt it, id do a deep dive into Ravi's families real estate holdings. Wouldn't be surprised if they already own a tonne of SFH in these Tod areas
If the point of all this is to make home prices fall gradually for the next 10 years then what would be the point of investing in real estate?
That's the point. Don't fight the Government. Get out
The government is purposely doing this. They don't care what will happen to short term rental operators
yup, 'investors' GTFO and stay out@@mogulrider
The point is that houses should be homes not a short term investment like a stock.
I think many will start thinking the same. There will be a race to get out
Can i sell each unit of the fourplex separately?
Wouldn't tht be a strata?
That would be a condo at that point . If you can commercialize it and make them all condominiums . I’m going to say no you can’t do that
Don’t expect Vancouver can build that fast , it can make over supply . It will not be happen .
I think the BC government should allow housing on the ALR. There are many areas that are not used for farming.
Yet
and run gazzilions of dollars of utilities to nowhere, yep horrible idea
@DummMoney-rr1fi What utilities??? You drill your own well & put in your own septic field. Your internet is a wireless connection and you hook up to BC Hydro if it's at your property line. If not you put in solar/wind.
Hey Steve, when are you going to have Ravi on the show? Looney hour? You and the boys need to ask him the tough questions about the unintended consequences for the STR ban and these unilaterally passed laws.
@steve yes please, this^^. i have lots of data i could share. let ne know and I'll send it over!
Yes please too. He needs to answer a bunch of questions. Is this interview actually going to happen?? What a great idea
Hope you guys enjoy the sky scrapers next to your single family homes lol
won't happen. a 100 million build next to a 2 million lol
I took a shot everytime you said "Todd Areas"
Oops, are you out of the hospital yet? Isn't it Tod areas?
Manipulating supply and just focusing on that misses the other part of the equation... Demand!
A political choice no one wants to talk about.
Are construction costs for a fourplex in the Lower Mainland higher than $500/sq ft?
All bs!! No money and no construction workers.
Tons of construction workers aren’t working right now. Many projects got canceled or halted because it’s no longer profitable to build.
Bullshit, that's cause there are zero building starts. Once even 1/4 of the proposed building commences all the trades will be working overtime!! Who will build the additional 3/4 of needed supply? HGTV warriors like me? Lol....Ravi is smoking too much legal marijuana
Is the quality of life in general going to go up or down if infill intensification gets widespread in every neighbourhood?
100% up
Infill intensification = shrinkflation
I think we should keep going until we live in tents because if you owe nothing you will be happy. Also think of all the commissions that Steve will make. That is what's important here.
These are great changes in the real estate industry. I was just hoping for a pot roast for Christmas.
Infrastructure, parking, privacy, noise, fire suppression all things these political fools never even considered . Then the problems arise and then what ?
there’s going to be major parking problems
Under ground parking
who can afford to build underground parking? will it be mandated or enforced to have to build underground parking for these new high density builds?
It will likely be limited or no parking. I'm too lazy to walk 800 metres to a station but people will. They want people to not have a car and take transit, choose your conspiracy theory for that if you like.
@@deckmonkey1459 your always free to buy a car. Most condos have parking spaces for sale.
@@Observer168 You are "free" to buy a car. If your condo/apt doesn't have a parking spot you can't actually own, though. We have a lot of "freedoms" like that here. When your government cuts carbon emissions by 75% in 6 years I don't think there will be very many cars in any big city.
Another big run for the rich with land, as land value will sky rocket. This is outrageous and unbelievable!!!
Maybe import more house builders 😊 and more penniless immigrants to make the economy boom ! 😅 ...print more money !
Just something for the Lower Mainland. Doesn't do much for the rest of the province.
Rest of the province doesn't need it. Lots of space and cheap real estate
@goodhuman123 Where the heck do you live? I live a ferry ride away from vancouver plus half hour and The real estate prices here have gone insane. So have the rents. As a matter of fact the entire mid vancouver island has gotten ridiculous. So please tell me where the heck is this cheap real estate?
@@1alayzzia I am comparing those prices with Vancouver prices. So they are not insane in comparison
@goodhuman123 my house is worth 4 x what it was less than 20 years ago. 4 TIMES! My son cannot move out. A bachelor apartment in my town is going for sixteen hundred dollars a month. I don't see much difference.
@@1alayzzia good for you :) don't you want to cash out and actually make use of that money. Move to Malibu maybe? Or just downsize
negative negative negative and then u won the lottery. LOL. seniors will defer taxes and also wont be a lot of options.... ppl wont sell because no where to go.
Shrinkflation for houses..
Steve seems stoked! now he can still sell people houses they can barely afford again! Great news
thank you NDP!
I own one SFH in one of the new TOD areas. We shall see if I hit the lotto@@roseoverdose6451
@@DummMoney-rr1fi hey man, I have no idea why, but your comment is being shadowbanned. Just FYI
shadow banned? what does that mean?@@Picklemedia
@@DummMoney-rr1fi have you ever seen a TH-cam comment that has a number of replies, but you can't see them all?
This was the case and I had to filter comments to 'newest' to see what you had written.
You could see your comment but we couldn't
This won’t hold and it’s a very poor idea. If they are planning on allowing that much of an increase in density, you need to upgrade utilities. Roads will have to be dug up to upgrade water and gas mains, and hydro will have to be upgraded. If you want to 6x the population when the existing utilities are only serving X amount of current households, imagine 6x people flushing toilets and doing laundry.
I’ve lived in Vancouver and it’s brutal. They definitely never planned for the population boom it had over the past few decades. The traffic system is like driving through a small city.
People are leaving just as much as they’re arriving. These are stupid ideas by stupid people.
Unless their plan is to run people out of their homes with high property taxes so investors can scoop up properties to build on, then what happens when we’re also constantly running out of construction material? You know how long it takes to build a 6 plex? It doesn’t happen in a month. This will be a long long process and fueled by retarded speculation.
Unfortunately 2024 will be the year of massive layoffs. I am sure everyone knows at least one person that has lost their job or is currently not working. Many bears have gone quiet because they know that they could be next.
People might think massive job losses will result in a housing crash but I doubt this will happen. There will be a correction but not the crash that many were hoping for.
Over 40% of the homes in Canada are mortgage free and the ones that bought over 10 years ago have a ton of equity and small mortgages because prices were less than half of what they are now. The regular wage earners have been totally priced out in the last 5 years and the only ones buying were millionaire immigrants, rich investor, rich students or have rich parents.
The ones that normally get let go first are normally customer service, sales and other average wage earners. There is a bigger chance to lose your job in 2024 than it is to purchase your first home. It’s probably the investors that will be buying everything at a discount.
I don't know anyone who has lost their job.
You will soon, I know plenty in the construction industry. We went from super busy to the slowest I have seen in a very long time.
@@Observer168 maybe, but maybe not.
Jesus H christ BC does not have a housing crisis. BC has an issue with afford ability. It not interest rates issues either. It's was a group of new buyer, buying because of FOMO and out bidding each other and kept out bidding and did not wait. The group of " I can't wait, I want now" well hows it working for you. Even at 2% rates, these people borrowed 4 to 6 hundred thousand for a crack house in Vancouver. The banks are to blame too, by lending to said people to purchase. It never cease to amaze me the ignorance of people when buying a house they for get at the price they paid, the property taxes will also go up as well the the house insurance. For got that heh!! So, for those with no patience, good luck to you and realize THE INTEREST RATES WILL NOT GO DOWN FOR YEARS AND YEARS...UNLESS A CRASH DEPRESSION. By then, there will be nothing worth saving for some.
NO ONE WILL CARE TO BUILD THEM, this wont help affordability
I'll land bank my properties tho and hope for a lotto win to sell to someone else in 10 years
I think it will drive down the price of the place nvm land lift. They will tax your ass so bad you will be begging to take it off yours hands
I notice a number of the comments are grumbling about loss of charm in their neighborhoods. Or density problems. That this will only benefit the rich. What planet are you living on? I live on Vancouver island. People cannot find housing. At any price. R v parks that were intended for tourism and recreation are filled with people living in rvs because they have no choice. Young adults cannot afford to move out of their parents place because the rent is eighty percent of their entry level job. Lower wage jobs cannot be filled because no one can afford to live on them considering the rents. This, by the way, is the reason that they've used to bring in immigrants that we also don't have housing for. Houses in my area have quadrupled in price in twenty years. And no that's not a typo. And on top of all of that, if you want to build a suite or a separate living space on your lot, even for family, you can't. I know a couple that owns a half acre property with existing house.They wanted to build a house on it for their son and daughter in law. The city won't let them. The city told them that they have to have at least a full acre to have two houses.
Welcome to the Wild west
Future slums?
Politicians are some of the most hated, ignorant and stupid clowns known to exist. I don't know of a single person (yes, sample size is small haha) who would want to live in a hyper dense area like this right beside train tracks. I'd also fathom that newcommers to Canada wouldn't immediately want a shoe box / dog crate in the sky either. They want a home and a bit of space too.
Most of the new immigrants coming from countries where 10 people pre household is the norm
The demand statistics would prove otherwise.
Let’s get quality of life back in canada.
Good luck with that, this is not a country where you money is treated best, is it ?
@@somejohndoe3004 there is no option that we just go in another country . Canada has to figure out best
The entire model of STRs, including LTRs where renters pay your million buck mortgage is destroyed.
You will compete against massive overcapacity over time.
Are you a boiling frog or do you see the future. If you are a spec owner who rents, your massive mortgage will not be covered by revenue.
Open your eyes
Nope, Vancouver and Toronto will become like Hong Kong, Tokyo or New York.
@@Observer168Buddy, you are a frog boiling in a hopium stew. New York, Tokyo and Hong Kong are productive wealth generators. Toronto and Vancouver rely on the RE ponzi scheme to generate wealth for its inhabitants. When that ponzi is broken so is the wealth.
Will this plan fall apart when/if the Conservatives take over?
I don't think they will drop the TOD areas, that seems to be a group of areas that can be sacrificed.
Parking chaos will ensue and will set neighbours against each other in a fight to the death.
lol, that has always been a problem. It would suck to have 4 huge diesel PU trucks parked in front of your 1940 SFH
Resulting in lower population and less demand lol. Unintended consequence lol.
bye bye wyt western culture into the dust bin of history you go
They allowed greed to wipe them out. They will be taken over by a culture that emphasizes family shortly.
Let's get the basics right on this guy. First, his business is selling real estate -- not knowledge for consumers. Second, the greater the shortage, the higher the prices -- the better for Steve's business. Third, he thinks the Bank of Canada shouldn't raise rates because that would hurt his income. But SOMEHOW, he's scraping by, what with his rooftop condo in False Creek with an expansive open-air Jacuzzi. His status as an "analyst" means he can lasso more of the unwitting, thinking he is smarter than them, is a "neutral" and, in fact, doesn't have a horse in the race. LOL. Please reply. Steve. I'm sure you disagree, but I'm all ears. Stay away from personal attacks and stay on my three topics. Sorry, I'm not part of the RE cult, but you can still reply. Please keep it clean.
What about sewer capacity?
Good luck with this plan. 😂😂🤣
Ravi has created a real shitty situation for some
That’s what I said too this wil need upgrades
kiss beautiful charming heritage neighborhoods good bye.
The BC NDP has been on the war path against private property ownership rights, the backbone of democracy using the housing crisis of cover. They have attacked strata properties forcing numerous to vote to become 65+ only, forcing numerous mandatory reports - they continue to tell private property owners what they can or can't do and who they must rent to. Now they are overriding all municipalities , community input etc to force Hong Kong style densification. Anyone, regardless of where they stand on the housing issue, should be very worried and should be outraged at this erorsion of democracy. This is communist China/Soviet era actions.
Agree 100%
The majority finally got revenge against the establishment nimby group. I won’t cry for them
Every realtor in BC is now going to double SFH prices. Steve Karrasch and the like just creamed their pants.
Amen Don, the new affordability factor is how much you can rent out portions of your Primary residence on STR platforms if there are any left. Well done Ravi/Eby. I don't want to forget to mention the impact they are having on the tourism industry. Also, Don what do you think they will spend enforcing these rules, and how much tax revenue will be lost when the black market home swaps, rentals come online as a result of the STR ban?
double is a bit of a stretch, but changes are coming. I'm buying more soon.
@@DummMoney-rr1fi honesty I don't know, I am more of a long term thinker, the law of unintended consequences is a hard one to master. Never underestimate the ability of the government to piss away tax money on dumb things.
To be honest, long term we will have an over supply, because now we can build 4 plexes everywhere, and every real estate bro is going to jump on it. They will have to build them to code, so that will make a small building boom for competent tradesmen.
Good time to be an electric carpenter, that's all I know.
Realtors should be capped on the amount of money they make on each property. Should be a set fee instead of % based.
@@Observer168 fvck that, my next move is being a realtor.
All I have to do is answer my phone and open doors, my assistant will do the paperwork while I eat lunch and so whatever I want.
Easy peasy, lemon squeezy