How to Time the Canadian Real Estate Market?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 1 มิ.ย. 2024
- People are always asking me how to time their primary residence purchase. Waiting for the big crash. These are hard events to time, as history has shown us. Since the Bank of Canada rate hiking cycle Vancouver home prices are down just 4%. Who would have predicted that? Watch sentiment, buy when you can afford it, and don't over-leverage.
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The Asian bling or display of wealth seems to be the most elaborate of all races. It's mind-blowing sometimes the extent they get to
Absolutely! I mean, have you seen some of those mega yachts and private islands they own? It's like they're living in a whole different world.
And don't even get me started on their custom-made supercars and designer wardrobes. They definitely know how to flaunt their wealth.
Yeah, it's pretty impressive. But you know what's even more interesting? Most of these wealthy Asians have someone like Desiree Ruth Hoffman managing their portfolios.
DESIREE RUTH HOFFMAN she’s known for her assortment manager and holistic approach to financial planning of high-net-worth individuals , considering factors like income, expenses, and long-term goals. she's been making some serious waves in the industry
Oh, I know Desiree! She's incredible. I've seen testimonials from people she's helped, and the figures are mind-blowing. Some of her clients have seen their portfolios grow by over 50% in just a year
Steve, it's always remarkable that we investors and speculators often lose our convictions just before our thesis unfolds. My thesis remains the same - we have a massive wall of refinancing that will hit four years after the peak in 2021-2022. That places 2025 and 2026 in deep waters. We are only two years past peak prices and rate hikes. The downward pressure on the markets have not yet been felt.I have total conviction that the 4th quarter of 2025 will be the start of another lost decade of home price appreciation. We will see a buyers market for many years.
Congrats Steve I welcomed my first child 3 months ago. What a blessing 🙌 🎉
Congratulations. I hope the little one lets you sleep. Enjoy the cuteness, they grow real quick.
Congratulation on the new addition to the Saretsky family!
Congratulations on the first born! Also, really good book. Lots of good lessons!
Real estate is like a cargo ship. Takes a very long time to adjust course, a lot of momentum. But right now, this cargo is like the Titanic when they saw the iceberg
Excellent comparison
Anyone that owns real estate in Vancouver is extremely lucky. Vancouver and Toronto will remain very stable.
@@Observer168
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA..... well now, there's some "normalcy bias' based fantasy right there ?
The migrations will continue to far more affordable/better quality of life locations across Canada.
Forgive for asking.... but what part of the past decades FALSE fomo/speculative driven 'demand' fundamental in the GTA/GVA being injected under the unprecedentedly low monetary Policy rate distortion to unsustainable valuations do you not aquiesce to ?
And again....
please enlighten anyone here, just how under any actuarial analysis set of assumptions.... the now ~$3 Trillion Combined Mortgage/Consumer DEBT instrument accumulation is serviceable under any 'normalized'(not zero) Monetary Policy rate under current "GDI" or 'Gross Domestic Income' potential Canadians can derive in wages to service/maintain the Payments therein.... from our already stagnant 10+ years barely ~$2 Trillion GDP ????
with special comment if you don't mind.... just "how' that barely ~$2 Trillion consumer spending reliant GDP/GDI can be maintained as still 700,000 Canadian Mortgages(40% NEGAMS) renew here thru 2026 all at far higher rates than initiation intending massive re-allocations away from consumer spending to higher DEBT servicing ?
HOW ?
I would respectfully suggest Sir.... that you stop sniffing glue and start concentrating within the realm of presenting reality ?
Very simply because....
those who forget history are bound to repeat it..... and this now unfolding GTA Crash will make the 1989-1997 GTA Real Estate correction look like a cakewalk
@@Observer168depends on what you mean. As I see it buying in 2021-2025 will cost you money where as if you bought in 2016-2020 you are gaining equity. Paying 6% interest on a loan of 600k plus, is a loss. Homes will stay stagnant for the foreseeable future. Only way housing goes up in the future depends on wage growth from the overall working class.
@@justinjones5281 assets like real estate go up because the value of money goes down. I don’t think real estate will go sideways for the foreseeable future. Vancouver and Toronto is like New York. They have become cities for the rich and have nothing to do with average income. Canada is full of affordable cities like Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal and Winnipeg.
Congratulations on your little one Steve. It will be a busy time so be gentle with yourself!
Congrats on the new addition to the family! Thank you Steve for all that you do
Congrats Steve to you and your family. Hope everyone is doing well.
Congrats on the new addition Steve, happy for you guys!
Congrats on the new addition to the family Steve!!! 🎉
Congratulations on becoming a dad!! Best feeling in the world!!
Congratulations Steve on your bundle of joy!!
Mazal Tov al ha-lei! I’ve been watching Vancouver price cycles since the early-2000s. When I was searching for a condo in 2000, the realtor was a depressed and hopeless character. Owners I met practically begged me to make an offer. Any offer. This was after several years of slowly declining values. Eventually, people just capitulate.
We aren’t close to capitulation yet. I suggest to anyone waiting to buy: wait a bit longer. It will be rewarding relative to buying now and perhaps missing out on growth for a decade, as Steve suggests.
If you’re renting, there’s some good news coming. As houses decline or flatten in value, rents tend to go down because speculators are forced to rent out some of their properties and the decline in selling activity makes more properties available for rent because they aren’t being kept empty for the purpose of selling. It will happen. Just wait a little longer.
Don’t you wish you bought back then? Hope you still aren’t renting because it would mean hundreds of thousands in rent into someone else’s mortgage when you could have owned. Heck it’s almost been 25 years so you could have been mortgage free by now.
I waited for 20 years for the crash though.
Do not believe Vancouver housing market will crush . I was waiting for 20 years too, it may go and down little bit but housing market in Vancouver is very stable and up
In the long term. If you need to live, just buy in when the rate is starting to down . Don’t wait. Waiting is not smart idea . You will lose if you are waiting . You need to live, you need to buy not rent .
Nothing wrong with renting. As a homeowner I can assure you it’s a very expensive way to get rich and at the end of the day if one invested all the repair bills, interest payments, down payment, etc one would wind up much better off from a pure numbers perspective. But who does that?
@@davidhughes6048renting can also be very expensive. Most people don’t have the discipline to invest. Owning forces you to put money into an asset. Let’s face it, most people rent and don’t have much left over to invest anyway. The ones that are able to save put money aside so they can own.
Congrats on the new arrival of the little one. Finally a piece of wonderful news to share among the bad in this country.
Congrats on the baby!!! When we were buying the house we went mostly on feeling that we had outgrew the existing apartment and it is time to move to somewhere bigger. Making decision within the context of what is happening in my life right now, takes all the doubting out of the process, it just feels right.
That’s not a luxury many millennials have. We HAVE to hope for a correction to even get in
Steve congratulations with your baby! Wonderful news. It'll change your life man.
Congratulations! Nothing is more meaningful than having a baby! Well done, and all the best to your family!
Congratulations, Steve , on the newborn...god bless..
Congrats on the new addition to the fam!
Congrats Steve appreciate ya
Congratulations Steve! All the best to you, your wife and your little girl. There’s nothing better than being a parent. Even if you have to take the long view sometimes. But this age is golden. Enjoy it!
And I would agree with you on sentiment as I am still learning the hard lessons. It is hard to buy when nobody wants something and sentiment is terrible and way too easy to buy when everyone wants something and sentiment is upbeat.
As Warren Buffet said “Be fearful when others are greedy. And be greedy when others are fearful.” I see lot of fear right now…
Maybe …. have you tried buying a house recently?? Everyone might be scared, but prices haven’t come down.
@semi-chubber2388 Yes, the real estate market is at the ceiling, but if you have money saved for your retirement, perhaps investing in real estate will protect you better, because there will be, may be a very stronger drop of the dollars value!
@@patricklapointe674 yeah…. I just bought a house cause I want a place for my kids to call home. Wasn’t trying to time the market or call the ceiling or wait to buy the dip or any of that nonsense.
I think it’s you people that are the cause of the “bubble” …. It’s a house, not an investment. I have plenty of actual investments, don’t need to add real estate to the list of markets I will try to game.
Congrats on the baby, just listening to the loonie hour. God bless
Congratulations!!! Blessings of life to the children 🎉
Congratulations Steve!!
Congratulations Steve!
The problem is that we don't know when the Up cycle will end. I think sentiment is the only one of many elements as the gauge. The cycle that has begun could last for several years. When you can afford it, just buy it! Don't hesitate...
Congratulations to your family!
Congratulations to you and your wife on your first born 🎉. Exciting times.
Very Very Sensible Advice.
Applies to all Housing Markets, Globally, not just Vancouver.
Congratulations to you and your family 🎊
Congrats on the new life in your home. I consider kids to be an investment, and the best time to have kids was yesterday. so as you said invest like an optimist. I wish your family the best.
Solid summary as always
Congrats Steve!
Congrats on your first baby, Steve 🎉
Forget real estate, has anyone seen the move in gold and silver prices. Miners are starting to BOOM!!!
All you need to know is the value of money always goes down. Gold is a good hedge against inflation but so is real estate in Vancouver or Toronto.
The short term top must be close when you see people mentioning it on real estate channels! 😉 I'm invested, and I'm long term bullish, but I think we will get a correction soon 🎉
@@kqh123 paper loses in real estate are nothing new
@@Observer168 in anything
Have a look at silver and gold prices from 2012. Then compare it to now. You’re better off with a 1% GIC.
Congrats Steve on the kid!!!
Why would you be surprised the market isn’t down more? You know they did the mortgage amortization extension so people didn’t have to face higher payments. Where we see the impact of these elevated rates is on renewal which we will see that impact over the next few years. If the rates stay elevated I would be very surprised if the market doesn’t go down significantly from here.
Congratulations 🎊!!
Great book, one my top reads on Money. My favourite phrase from this book is “Money’s greatest intrinsic value, ….. is the ability to give you control of your time”
Congratulations 🎉🎉steve
Is that chart at 5:25 inflation adjusted? 4% decline yes not much but if you account inflation I'd say its much more. A 2024 Canadian dollar buys you 15% less than it did in early 2022
Congrats on your new born Steve!
Congratulations!!!
Real estate moves slow, its very easy to time in my opinion. Of course we dont know what will 100% happen but if you use your common sense, history and data, i think you can accurately predict the housing market. The only difficult part is what decisions will the criminals in charge of our government make
Vancouver real estate will always be in demand. It’s like owning Microsoft stock.
there are criminals in charge of our government?! seems like an assertion you can back up ...
I totally agree, since 1980’s-1990’s its been steadily going up in value. If you were investing with a 1-3yr short term timeframe to invest its kind of tricky. But if you look at investing in lowermainland over a 5-10 yr or even 10-20yr timeframe you will come up on top.
When I see whats happening to other places around the world, whether its wars in the middle east, economy falling in china you kind see why people want to gravitate to places like Canada
Yeah good luck timing the market. Lol
Good luck in the market, there is already some civil unrest at these prices, if they go up more either wages have to go up significantly or id have to assume home prices come down significantly or homes get burned down, lets see
Congrats!!!
Congratulations!
Congrats 🎉
Congratulations on your new addition to your family. You're going to be super busy now. Start looking for a daycare!
CONGRATS......❤
I said this before. Layoffs will bring your minimum 20% decline. That’s the last piece to crash
There won't be layoffs, we are not in recession. Things are more likely to take off again since the post covid inflation bounce is back under control.
@@Tugela60 no one knows what’s going to happen even with all the data. Everyone’s just guessing. We will have to wait and see
@dailydoseofcliftons8140 What is obvious is that with population growth outpacing new housing starts demand will continue to place strain on the market, meaning people will pay the maximum of what they can afford. Because if they don't, they will be living out of their cars or in property that falls way short of their self image. Unless the economy crashes and interest rates go out of control, housing is going to remain very expensive.
@@Tugela60 people are also leaving the country because of cost of living. So it can swing either way if that keeps increasing
@dailydoseofcliftons8140 No they are not, not in any significant numbers. You can't just go and live in another country just because you feel like it. There are immigration rules and normally it is extremely difficult to go anywhere unless you are a tourist.
Congrats on the baby. You’ll love it. No sleep and more greys
That sounds terrible 😂
Curious what you think about Surrey City Centre. Lots of new developers brazenly building. I hear many are crazyily-overleveraged.
Congratulations on becoming a dad! I've only been a dad for 2 months. Let's go!
Congratulations 😁
Congratulations
Congratulations with your baby.
Good analysis. In Mission BC prices tripled in 10 years. In Edmonton prices stagnating for 15 years
That is because no one wants to live on the prairies 😂
Mission assessed values are ridiculous. I've been looking there since last summer. I'll make an offer when the prices come back to 2019 values. Covid/work from home does not justify this jump in supposed value.
@@ML-vk8ev Assessed values are based on what property is currently selling for, so you might be in for a long wait.
@Tugela60 They aren't currently selling at assessed value. Average 300,000k overpriced. Covid bump is over. Realtors and sellers need to face reality.
@ML-vk8ev Let me say this again, assessed values are based on the selling price of surrounding property. That is how it works. It is used to determine your portion of the municipality's budget when taxes are due. If property in your area sells for less than a different area, your taxes go down as a result, and vica versa. Consequently the city needs a reasonably accurate estimate of what your property is worth relative to neighbors in order to determine how much your tax should be. It is an estimate however, and individual properties in a specific area might sell for more or for less than their assessed value as a result.
Sadly, this simplistic view of the money supply and valuation of fiat part of the problem.......lol
It's the foundation of investing and understanding markets, no?
When the unravelling happens, it'll be bad for many
You forgot employment still strong, on d people start to work less hours or better get the pink slip things can turn fast, however there’s a lot of old money around
That’s a thing a lot of people don’t understand. Debasement of the currency
Congrats on the baby. They are fun. Don’t forget the RESP. 😂
Real estate in the Vancouver area will never go down period.
How did you go bankrupt sir?
Well slowly, then all at once.
We are now in that timing band.
BTW, CRE CLO's will be your catalyst for waterfall. Everything is connected.
Nothing is different this time. It takes 3-4 yrs for leveraged bubbles to pop.
I still can't tell if I should be scared or excited.
@@donm2067 As always stay liquid, have minimal non core spec assets, keep all the non core in insured fixed income and most importantly have no debt.
Its the time again where return of your money is far more important than return on your money. Expect extreme vol over the next 12 weeks into the Fall. The underwater debt holders are done. The business cycle is now downward into it's cycle lows into 2026. Those with cash will be very happy to buy cheap assets into 2027
@@donm2067 cash will be king. Nobody has any
Remember , escalator up, elevator down.
The down is 2-3x faster than the up. ALWAYS.
Why is it always sunny in your window? Are you sure you're in Vancouver?
Genuine question: What is a 4% decline in real terms after accounting for some pretty high inflation there. Its probably more like 15% just wild guess so not far off 20% guess. And then that's just the average for all classes of housing like some have done better other worse as well as neighborhoods etc.
Just paper lose when you compare how the value of money depreciates over a few decades. Everything gets more expensive as money loses value.
Right but the point is in real terms the decline is around to what he predicted. We really should speak more in real terms not oh I made x without the rest of the story
@@Observer168"A Cantillon effect is an uneven change in relative prices resulting from a change in money supply, which was first described by 18th-century economist Richard Cantillon (who inspired political economists like Adam Smith and David Ricardo).
Creating an abundance of cheap money via banks does not automatically mean that demand for everything will rise simultaneously. Instead, history shows that certain assets take favor over others, leading to rising in some areas of the economy and falling prices in others.
Because money added to the economy (through lending and asset purchases by the central bank) or removed from the economy (through debt write-downs and liquidations) happen at specific points in the economy rather than in all markets simultaneously, both inflation and deflation tend to occur as processes over time with differential and sequential changes in prices in different markets. The resulting relative price changes that occur may confuse observers over whether the economy is undergoing overall inflation or deflation.
Biflation is thus a specific type of Cantillon effect. It happens when during a period of debt deflation (and resulting recession) the central bank pumps money into the economy in an attempt to reinflate asset prices. However, despite the central bank’s efforts, the recipients of the newly created money use it to purchase commodities and related assets rather than to try and fight the ongoing deflationary trend in debt markets."
From Wikipedia
Congrats Steve on your new baby! Enjoy your podcasts and interviews. Thank you for what you do.
It’s 4 percent now but 2020-2021 was the housing frenzy. Most Canadians buy 5 year mortgages fixed. Most have tons of equity. 2025-2027 you will see 20-40 percent correction as the economy slows immigration will reverse credit cards tighten further due to risk in lending
Highly doubt Vancouver will have a major correction. Is like owning Microsoft stock
yeah but only the tail end of those on 5 year fixed and variable on fixed payments have yet to renew. if we assume even distribution that makes for 20% or there about left (less however many don't complete their 5 year contract due to selling). The vast majority have already taken the pay, only a few of us left to feel it. There was a lot of hope and attention around hey dont worry rates will drop and its been interesting see that goalpost continue to push out further than further when this will start and the optimism that it will be quick fade. 20-40% drop in value is a heck of a prediction but i admire you you for putting it out there. I take a more moderate view that it will be more of a drawn out stagnation of prices as in the drop wont matter as much as prices just wont go back to appreciating. Terrible for investments as everything else would have been better. Thousands of people will just hang on hoping their pig investment will turn around unable to admit defeat and just move on. The problem with all of us amateur investors is emotions we measurably do the worst. Many will hold on about until things turn around then sell only then.
You go short when interest rates are declining, long when they are stable or rising.
Immigration won't reverse, Canada is a boom economy fueled by immigration. If they stopped immigration we would go into a severe and long recession. The same applies to the US btw, the people so vehemently opposed to immigration don't understand that they are shooting themselves in the foot, that their economy and good life actually depends on a constant supply of new and motivated people moving into the country.
@2:24 people call you a "Perma Bear"?
And the other 99.9% call you a Pumper
Honestly he's a realtor, you don't blame a tiger for having stripes.
@@donm2067 Joh Flynn is a realtor but has remained reasonably objective imo.
Unlike the tiger I think Steve actually has a conscience and if you got a couple of beer into him he would tell you where the gray hairs come from.
Totally agree…always seems to be holding back what we all know is happening.
@@Picklemedia lol, I always get the truth out of people, even without the beers.
Talk to car salesmen, those guys have been preying on homeowners for well over a decade now. Some of the conversations are utterly brutal, yet hilarious.
Where do you think interest rates will be by summer of 2026?
I wouldn't believe in those charts put out from the government. Hamilton hasn't declined at all!
There will never be housing crisis as if house prices goes down then all people who can afford 1 million dollar house as their salary is already 200k per year let’s say. Will be eligible to buy a bigger house of 1.5 million dollar as it would be listed lower in market. so it’s would be win win situation for everyone. Like I can sell my 1.7 million dollar house in 1.4 million during crash but also buy. 2.4 million dollar and bigger house in 1.7 million as bigger house crash more . So it’s all balanced in long run. So don’t waste time in predicting house prices . Focus on your productivity and increase sources of income while you can because when old age hits you cannot do much but regret.
FOMO guy pumping hard...
Eh Steve, what is the name of that bubbly behind you, I figure if you like it I likely would?👍
Hey man. Maybe go back a couple years and look at some of those videos. Are you new to the channel?
@@Picklemedia Not new at all. What is your real point(s)?
@@ethimself5064 when everyone knows a crash is coming and you still sell houses under the presupposition that the market always goes up I think that's patently false and immoral.
@@ethimself5064 Steve predicted 6 rate cuts. How many this year so far?
one cannot time the market because one never knows what the next tick the fed gov with come up with.
However, it is pretty obvious that the fed gov is running out of options. It has been the biggest speculator in the real estate market for over 10 years .. but the good thing is that the Canadians are seeing thru it and are not being fooled by it any more.
Sobering advice could be applicable to the stock market too. Sentiment buying when cab drivers are asking about it is probably the peak. We reached peak doomer in housing a year ago I think most content creators have slowed down on the apocalypse imagery in their thumbnails realizing this isn't America 2008. There are confounding variables. Sentiment is a powerful indicator for various investments.
Whether it's now or in a few years wages are nowhere near being able to afford the eventual supply of Boomer houses at these prices. It's a mathematical inevitability.
Vancouver and Toronto have become cities for the rich. Plenty of cities in Canada like Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg that are still affordable.
Average people have to get used to renting in small apartments, just like their ancestors did. Widespread personal home ownership has only been around for the last 100 or so years, prior to that average people rented, and normally their accomodations were very small and rudimentary.
@@Tugela60 You are welcome to get used to it if you like - I have left the garbage dump called Canada for greener pastures. Maybe you'd also accept having leeches suck your blood to cure illness.
Until positive cash flow over mortgage rates
You will never see positive cash flow in Vancouver because prices go up faster than rents. Positive cash flow would also mean owning is cheaper than renting. You would see 5 mile lineups to buy if that ever happened in Vancouver.
@@Observer168 this thought process has been working during Goldie lockes of lower rates for 40years and debt expansion, the 1990 japan even is happening before your eyes. We are at a worse bubble then 2008 usa
@@brianpereira7483Japan has no immigration and negative population growth. Tokyo is still one of the most expensive cities in the world. Vancouver and Toronto will only get more expensive like New York. Cities for the rich…. Nothing to do with local incomes just like billionaires row..
What keeps you up more at night?
Love the pensive facial expression in the thumbnail
Congrats on the kid! I thought I could time the market. I was wrong. I didn't take into consideration how much the government was going to be propping up the housing market.
was going to? The government and all those have maintained pro housing policy for decades certainly since the 80's but even before then. The challenge is not having a correct argument that housing is and was overpriced, the challenge is timing that. The market can say irrational far longer than we can stay liquid.
@@RainCity3rdbest time to buy was 10-20 years ago no matter how overpriced you thought houses were. Same thing will be said 20 years from now. Value of money always goes down.
Congrats Steve🎉
bringing 100k people per month to country does not help with affordability
Increase liquidity is giving money to corporations
The market will return to affordable levels eventually! If the average person earning an average wage cannot afford the average home then the market will have to adjust. Right now the market is totally out of whack!
Only Vancouver and Toronto are out of wack because they have become cities for the rich like New York. Cities the Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg cost 1/2 as much. You can buy a brand new 3 bed 2 bath townhome in Winnipeg for under 500k.
The market timers will rent forever and stay frozen on the sidelines.
Congrats on your first born too!!!, good points that you are saying here, as a southamerican person who came to Canada in 1999, it did not take too long to realized that the real estate in this part of the world is a prime location, and th only reason at moment for me was the Port of Vancouver, it is a very important gate both ways, never mind the the aspects of beauty of BC, so my point here is that anyone who invest in real estate here is a winner, period.
literally NEVER seen anyone accuse you of being bearish. only the opposite... but i think the hate you get from the SUPER bears is undeserved and unhinged. you do you. im here for it. congratulations on the babe.
He's a waffler with good insight lol.
You work for 40yrs to have $1m in your retirement, Meanwhile some people are putting just $10k in a meme coin for just few months and now they are multi millionaires. I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life.
If you can't get a home inspection, don't buy. Every home we renovate in Vancouver need over $100,000 in rot repairs
Oh look - despite rates up like crazy, prop taxes in Maple Ridge are up from $1490 to $1750 this year like the property value is up 20 percent? Ya right...the squid just sucks harder.
Bro's just gonna brush over the fact he had his first child haha. CONGRATS STEVE!
zero crash when there is no supply
Canadian real estate isn’t just Vancouver and Toronto. It’s extremely expensive because these are Canada’s most desirable cities to live in.
You can still buy a brand new 3 bedroom 2 bathroom townhome in Winnipeg for under 500k. The winters are cold but you have plenty of money for a nice SUV. The lifestyle is much more slow paced just like how Vancouver was in the 70’s and 80’s. It’s perfect for people that like to live a more peaceful life with a backyard.
It’s also extremely expensive because of foreign money - money laundering to the hilt. We’ve always been the Mecca for hiding money, but the fraud and corruption that’s happening now is extreme.
Colorado's out 😔
I bought a house about ten days ago. I waited and waited until the frenzy fizzled out…. But I still had to bid $70k over asking to win the bid vs two other bidders. Just a week prior to that I lost a bid where I was 50k over asking.
Entry level homes in Canada will always be scooped up immediately. We can thank our political ruling class for that.