The Case for a BULL TRAP in the SP500
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 14 มิ.ย. 2024
- 🟢 TRADE IDEAS & DISCORD: / figuringoutmoney
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In today's episode of "The Case for a BULL TRAP in the S&P 500," we're diving into the intriguing possibility that the current stock market rally might just be setting us up for a fall. With the S&P 500 pushing upwards, it's crucial not to get complacent. We'll begin by examining the performance of the eleven sectors that make up the S&P 500, highlighting notable movements in utilities and real estate, and discuss their implications on market strength.
We'll also delve into various technical indicators, like the VIX and implied volatility levels, which suggest a decrease in market hedging despite rising prices-potentially signaling a lack of confidence among traders about the sustainability of this rally. Additionally, we explore the relationship between back month and front month volatility and how historical data suggests we might be nearing a market top.
Further, we'll break down the action in individual sectors such as technology and consumer staples, discussing how movements in these areas could either support a breakout or warn of a breakdown. We're keeping an eye on key resistance and support levels across different sectors, with a special focus on technology due to its significant weight in the index.
Expect detailed technical analysis using charts to illustrate key points, like potential divergence patterns that could indicate weakening momentum despite rising prices. We'll also cover macroeconomic indicators and upcoming events that could influence market volatility, such as consumer sentiment data and Fed speeches.
By the end of this session, you'll have a comprehensive understanding of why this might be a bull trap and how you can adjust your investment strategy accordingly. Tune in to ensure you're prepared for what might lie ahead in the markets, and don't forget to subscribe for more insights and updates!
INTRO: 00:00
Market Snapshot: 00:38
SP500 (and more): 5:50
Commodities: 10:00
Bonds & Yields: 12:28
Stock Market Indicators: 15:00
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Scroll back up and hit the 👍.
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Some glitching and audio issues today on this one!!!
Everyone is positioning for next Wednesday. CPI will be a major catalyst.
Cpi is about to start dropping, but none of the reasons for it are good. Luckily the market only cares about what the fed is going to do, and barely cares, if at all, about the economy.
This if my first year trading, will the cpi inflect bullish or bearish activity?
Lol some cpi days move the market several percent up or down
Not many could possibly positioning, volume is far too low. Puts are cheap, so I’m in those as a hedge.
@@JakeFowler-km7to Depends on the CPI reading. If it comes in higher than forecasted, we will likely drop, if it comes in lower than forecasted, we should rally.
Kind of want to short utilities and long TLT
Weird audio artifacts in tonight's vid
lol yup
Why so many open interest calls on VIX expiring 22nd of May?
Good info and analysis. Thank you! 😊
Great presentation and agree leaning bull trap 👍👍
Flow into risk off assets or rotation into underperforming assets? Just calling it like it is.
Hi, just wanted to say that I've watched your channel get better and better over a couple years probably. Really good stuff. Keep it up!
Hey, thanks! Much appreciated!
That thumbs up has a lot of emphasis on the thumb, so I had to click it
heheh
Sticking with VOO for the long run.
Where can I get the vix table of implied daily/weekly move?
If you are in the discord its posted in the technical pattern reference channel. If not, i made this. In sure there are some on google
Thank you for the great videos. I am not sure you can look at TLT as a flight to safety. The last two times that it gained some good ground, so did the indexes. Look at October of 2022 and 2023..TLT and the market had their best gains from there.
Bonds are the "flight to safety", just don't make the mistake of thinking that's the only time that they move as an expectation of lower rates is what moves bonds regardless of the reason.
Odds of this being a bull trap are very small because market highs rarely occur in March. Bull traps are for bear markets and this market is far from flipping bearish. Inflation is not that high and jobs are still plentiful and the Fed is itching to pull the trigger to stimulate.
There was something with your microphone 😢
mic check
Who knew DUB-STEP could be turned into a market review lol 😆
All the TH-camrs are bearish. 😂
fix your audio please.
Woohoo
Watch GVZ.
You couldn't pick direction if your life depended on it
@@BigErnieBrownThat sinking feeling in the pit of your stomach? It's your intuition telling you that I'm right and that you're on the wrong side of the trade. That's the reason you're angry. You're not fighting me, you're fighting yourself.
There was something with your microphone 😢