The Car Market is Collapsing
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America has been living beyond it's means for decades.
More like a century plus, ever since the automobile became popular.
Well. Finely someone is telling what this is all about!!!
This. The US economy is propped up by money printing that would make any other country have Zimbabwe levels of hyper inflation. Only reason the US doesn't is that it has forced the rest of the world to use the US dollar for all international trade. With the money printing we've seen over the last decade the world can no longer continue taking the burden of trading in the US dollar and the consequences will be an economic collapse unlike anything ever seen before.
you misphrased "Capitalism"....... we are bombarded with pressure to BUY. Are you blaming the person, or the system? Oh, and who leads the system?
My car is 24 years old. It runs just fine.
Borrowing money to buy an expensive car is stupidity by stupid people.
I've never done that in my life yet in the past 30 years, there are people who have always bought cars on credit
Im glad I bought new Toyota in April 2006. Over 18 years on the road, it still drives like new 👌🏽
$118,000k for a truck !!! WTF !!!
Car Insurance increased so much so fast that I can't even afford car insurance for my parked car.
Mine jumped from $1200 to $1900 in two years. No accidents, perfect record, long time driver. No changes on my end, yet I have the pleasure of paying for all the cars getting stolen in my province.
My car is paid off. How is this fair?
Anything over 30K for a vehicle is insane when my groceries, gas, and hosting costs are insane. The American dream has become the American nightmare.
My 20 year old well-maintained Mercedes SUV only cost me $6000 and performs flawlessly. Why would I want to buy a new one?
A 100k truck... now that's just absurd. Absolutely absurd.
We are down to one car in my family; i won't buy one until the prices come down. F them!!!!
I own a few cars. Old clunkers. When 1 is being fixed drive another. Insurance is cheap as shit on older cars.
Prices will never come down, cheap cars will be discontinued
They'll leave the cars on a lot in the middle of nowhere to rot away before they push too many cars on the market and crash the prices. Wall Street would lose too much money and lose too many future car loans profits by letting prices come down.
The prices won't be came down...how?? Trillions on dept? I can tell you where all this money is!!!
Five to eight thousand $$$ can get you a
dependable vehicle. Do some strong "shopping" and making bold "counter offers".
Frogs in the boiling pot of water
Frogs actually get out before it gets too hot. Strange but True.
And getting hotter everyday. Nice analogy.
Prices for food, clothing, and fuel have sky rocketed. I took my daughter shopping this past weekend and was blown away at the high cost of clothing. A pair of Carhartt work pants is now $50 at the Boot Barn. I simply could not bring myself to pay that much for work pants. I drive on older and well maintained truck that I own outright. The price of new trucks is outrageous. No way I would ever finance an $80,000 truck with all the problems and headaches that I hear people are having with them. The US economy is in deep trouble. We have got to get back to basics!
Can you Imagine the of a semi truck diesel, $250,000 and the other option here in California is the electric semitruck will be $400,000 ..... just crazy times
I agree 💯 save your money if possible 🙏
So you're telling me, the stock market is going up even more?
They’ll have to create bigger denominations soon like a $1,000 and $10,000 note. Think how 100 years ago renting an apartment was like 10 bucks a month in a city like New York but they had $100 bills. That would represent 10 months of rent. Now a $100 bill isn't even one week of rent and thats the highest denomination…. Thats Jokes.
They could sell those trucks but they gotta come back to reality and cut those prices in half.
*My wife is a recruiter for a top NYC recruiting company, and has been working for them for the last 15 years. There's a freeze because it's all going AI, and to cover they are putting out "fake placements" until the transition is complete. My wife is actually helping the new programming bots on how, what, and where to do the jobs of hundreds including her own job as I blog. Your daughter is SPOT ON!*
Wealth creation over, it's all about wealth protection
Correct, time to scalp
50,000 for junk better to buy 10000 car and spend 5 thousand on it and drive it for 10 years
The US has always been a consumer economy and if the consumer is suffering, they stop spending and the whole market suffers. That is exactly what is happening right now and into the immediate future.
There is an insane delusion of what the sellers think the average person has in their wallet vs the reality of what the average person has in their wallet. The exponential downturn in the economy this year will be the result of how hard businesses hold onto their delusion until their business collapses.
You are right. My dad is asking at least 10K for his old 1999 4Runner, but most people only want to pay $800-2000. Because he isn't being realistic about how many miles are on it and he wants to dump it as is, on people with a finicky engine/dead battery.
That’s exactly what Biden thinks.
Car prices have been rising insanely for decades - and especially the past 5 years. What you are describing is demand destruction related to overpricing of cars. It has to end somewhere and that somewhere is where consumers reject high-priced cars. People still need and will buy cars. But, they are now starting to demand more car for their hard-earned dollar. It’s high time the car industry had a reckoning after decades of price increases and no innovation. Frankly, they deserve it.
As CFO of our small business, (about 50 people), I am seeing a slow fade here. Ben is right on point. things are most certainly slowing.
As you say, no one knows the future but we will have a day of reckoning. Great video Ben.
Slow fade here too, revenues in my biz of 15 people, down month after month for about 9-12 months now
No one can predict the future, but you don’t need to be Nastradamus to see the writing on the wall
What tell a clever man in you country-----the $ is our currency but your problem that means your goverment go shopping on credit all over the world and this since decades, is this ok?? They print money thats all, this causes more and more problems in the world, at some point the game is over, and we are on the home straight. Best wishes from gog old germany!! And we will be >third time< asshole!!!
The slow fade was the only viable option to get inflation under control. No matter how bad you may think inflation is or has been, it would have otherwise been far worse. Venezuela is currently suffering from 275% annual inflation. Would that be better? Once the rate of inflation slows, interest rates will decrease, consumer goods will become more affordable, and interest rates will drop. And the economy will rebound.
This is why minimum wages are pressured to rise. Costs are rising out of control.
The car market is dying because our government won't allow anyone to make a no frills basic vehicle for an affordable price. Where are the starter cars without all the computers and special features? I need a pick-up truck with an engine , wheels, and good breaks for $15,000 off the lot. Seriously.
It's not inflation, it's price gouging, Corporations used the pandemic fueled "supply chain" shortages to raise prices on everything from eggs to lumber, and enjoyed record profits once restrictions eased. Let's call a spade a spade. We are in an era of unprecedented corporate greed and are saddled with a political establishment that is wholly complicit.
Absolutely incorrect. Inflation is ALWAYS caused by government. Which then tries to blame business. And you bought it.
You sound like Joe Biden
I agree. Monetary policy is only part of the problem. Profiteering a big part of the problem.
Retarded take. You're basically arguing that corporations have never been greedy before. A significant portion of eggs and lumber are supplied by small companies, all "corporations" didn't just suddenly become greedy and all companies across the globe don't conspire to screw you over.
The amount of US dollars in circulation early 2020 were 4 trillion. In 2022 it was over 20 trillion. That's literally inflation of 500% over two years. (Source: M1 money supply)
It's inflation. The money printers are in overdrive and have been since Biden stole the election.
I totally agree, your son is right, people don't have money. I am in the home remodeling business in the Bay Area for 27 years and a trend we are seeing that is unprecedented for as far as I remember, is that people hiring contractors for work they must have done, like roofs or plumbing and electrical issues, and then simply don't pay, and its not just happening to us, but few of my friends who are also in this business are seeing the same thing, and in large numbers.
Put on lein on their house, when it sells you'll get your pay then I think. Sorry you guys are going through that.
It's not a solution to people not having money, but a strategy is to ask for a 50% deposit on commencement of the work, 25% halfway through and 25% on completion.
Put a lien on a house that the bank owns and the person so far in debt you will never see a dime. Sure sucks when people run up so much debt and its the little businesses that get screwed. I did it, made huge money at young age. Bought a house and felt rich. Bought brand new car. Finananced furniture. Ran up credit cards. Got repairs done to be luxery. Then oh shit the bills piled up fast. I am now helping my daughter buy a home but use my experience. Drive old car and fix yourself. No payments and cheaper insurance. Pay morgage but instead of house paid to 0 have its value in assets and morgaged. Morgage payment never changes as assets gain value. If needed assets could pay house to 0.
Mad, I literally watched a video of a woman going to Dallas to pick up her repoed car.
When she got to the business, my god, there were cars, bikes, jet skis, boats, motor homes as far as the eye could see.
The kicker was she had gone to the wrong business, she had to drive another 30 minutes to the other business where the view was the same, repossessions as far as the eye could see.
The woman didn’t bat an eyelid, only interested in getting her car, me on the other hand was like OH….MY…..GOD wtf is happening to the U.S economy.
I’m from the U.K. so this blew my mind.
My mantra for the past 5 years was "stay out of debt". My car was 14 y.o. when the dashboard lit up. Timing issue. Quoted roughly 8K to fix. Off to the car lot I went. Ugh. High prices, high payment. I put down 6K and a 5-year loan later I'm hoping I stay healthy (62) and don't lose my job before retirement. Ugh.
In regards to the car market, I’ve noticed a shift in attitude among myself and my friends. Years ago we competed to see who had the newest car/truck. Now the high mileage on our now-older vehicles is almost a badge of honor. We routinely talk about how many miles we have on our vehicles (I have 250K) and what we had replaced during our last service appointment.
People have no idea...the avalanche thats coming
I am a faculty member in engineering with 17 years of professional experience plus many years of teaching. I have been looking for a new permanent position for years. Despite the years of experience, I can only attain temporary assignments, with no benefits.
It's brutal. I'm highly qualified in law and because of extended break outside of my control, now can't get hired. I'm going to have to drop this career and pivot to something else. But what? Everything is under pressure. Perhaps accounting specialising in insolvency?
Terrible, but here in Europe the situation is not better!!
This has been happening for 25 years in the USA...
even PhDs in engineering have had this problem!!
"What you say... is what you get... be careful what you say!"
Welcome to Bangalore. Take 2 weeks and bring the fam. Email ahead and you’ll get interviews lined up. Glad you’re on the team 🛫 🇮🇳
The elephant in the room,insurance companies in EU are currently working on refusing to cover older vehicles that are not connected to the grid so no matter how much you love your old beater(I know I love mine)there will be no way to plate them without insurance,the only way I currently see around this hurdle is become an illegal alien
The problem, in a nutshell, is there are to many in the cart and not enough pushing it!
I've personally been identified as the "top candidate" for two different roles that were canceled due to a hiring freeze. I've also seen jobs at the VP or Director level paying $150k for a job that should be $200-250k.
I've also seen many phantom jobs posted for over a year. Clearly they aren't hiring.
My great grandfather worked for Henry Ford in 1912.. he was hired as an electrician from Glasgow Scotland
We have moved from being a producing economy to a consuming economy. This will not end well.
Money is in manufacturing.
I disagree. We did shift from a consumption- to a production-driven economy manay decades ago. But over the last half of the 1990s and the 2000s, we shifted from a production- to debt-driven economy.
I am used to my old SUV and won’t buy any new cars as long as it runs. By the way, ever since I started to maintain my vehicle at 90,000 miles, it’s run better. Now it recorded 202,690 miles.
As one who recently needed a truck, I refused to spend 80k for a truck. I instead went with a used truck even at 34K, but it was much cheaper than a new one (law of contrast). 34K should be the top end of a new truck. They're just not built well enough to ask anything more.
It's no longer about providing good value; it's about "what can we soak people for" and keep them perpetually in debt to the banks, and rake in high profit margins for the manufacturers.
It's all the result of greed and crony capitalism.
I love the so-called investor class! You hear that companies are overpriced, stocks are overpriced, the market is overpriced, however It's inflation driven by profit-seeking by companies driven to provide dividends, not driven by any global crisis, that is slowing consumer spending. It's the latter that will drive the next depression. Since they sort it out the subprime mortgage scam, the next thing to fall will be overpriced cars and their associated leases.
Try 6 months, the train is coming down the tracks at 120 mph. Thank you so much for the video.
Those jobs exist but it is a dummy job posting to hire someone from other country with less salary. this is going on for a while
in all my years the only loan i took out was to buy a house. pay cash for stuff. if you cant afford a new car buy what you can afford. new cars are way overpriced
Look at a private sale to buy your next car. Do your homework, and then help a distressed seller that needs cash now.
I just hired a highly qualified and motivated former Bay Area medical services employee for my firm. He moved 2300 miles at his expense for the position. He tells me he looked for work for 5 months before deciding to leave California.
Thank you 🙏
Ways in which the consumer is being squeezed out and reducing both their spending and purchasing power:
1) Increased rent
2) Increased insurance and medical premiums
3) Stagnating wages
4) For those in ride share, increased take rate by Lyft and Uber coupled with increased fuel and maintenance costs.
One thing that is overlooked about the car market is that full-time rideshare drivers are not buying new cars anymore. Most of these drivers used to buy a new car once every 18 or 24 months. The business is paying less and there's an even bigger risk of being deactivated on flimsy, ridiculous and unfounded grounds.
At some point the elite will have to wake to the reality they can't grow or survive in an environment where those at the bottom and middle class don't thrive.
They are posting non existing jobs. Juat to get that one off candidate. Either lower paid, better qualified or something. But the intention is not to hire but fish for top or cheap talent
Its all about the rates staying comparatively high. With inflation and the COVID spending spree, we, the people, are now paying for the greed of the ruling class.
I remember when a new truck cost $5000
If by collapsing, you mean getting to normal prices, I am ok with that.
Not me. Let’s make that money printer go brrr…. I want to speculate on crypto again.
I now have 330,000 miles on my F350 diesel pick up truck. And for what it’s worth I anticipate getting another 330,000 miles on that truck. I may need to have the engine rebuilt, but I am not buying a replacement truck for $100,000!
Visit few dealers lately and sales people acting like business is usual . But I can tell it’s Not the realty
They are doing the same in UK lying that theres loads of jobs when clearing there isnt and also with minimum wage going up people have lost their jobs or their hours have been cut. Great video sir thank you
The corporate greed in America is staggering
I agree with the analists: the economy is doing great. Granted, I'll never be able to afford a home or a new car, I can barely afford to eat and have come close to homelessness a few times, but yeah, things are great.
About the car dealerships,, i dont buy it. If they are really hurting then their inventory would be highly marked down right now and it is NOT. Therefore they are not really hurting.
They are faking it as long as they can. IMO
Agree. But dealers selling golf carts are slashing prices because they are overstocked.Carts 12,495 are now 8495.Do this at car dealerships
IDK about that it may be that these dealers are hurting but they are loathe to lower the prices because they think they can't afford to or the manufacturers and the repossessing banks forbid it.
My sons and I watch the car and boat market via our national trading platform on the internet.
In our case its called trademe in New Zealand.
Its clear that the consumer has either no spare money or is very fearful of what may be in store for their income.
Personally, I suspect the former.
Having said this, it shouldnt come as a surprize.
Those who survive this pending financial meltdown will have on average, seen it coming 3 years ago.
While departing the Detroit airport, I passed a huge, fenced off parking lot with thousands of brand new jeep brand vehicles in it. Picture five Walmart parking lots packed full.
High inflation, high unemployment. It's just like the 1980s 😮
What about the insurance! It's more than the payment in many cases- especially in the Northeast and major cities nationwide. This is a major crisis.
High costs, high wages, expensive houses and cars and expensive everyday items, it's just not sustainable and will end in a big fall !!
I was at a dealer recently and every single salesperson was busy helping customers. Lots of activity.
Helping them trade in their newer cars for older cars. Plenty of that activity, yes.
I can remember buying used cars and trucks for $50 to $500. Cash for clunkers ruined that.
I agree with your assessment of the economy in the US. But the piece for China is old news, at least one year old. In fact, China is bottoming out and begins recovery. If you look at the Hongkong and Shanghai stock market, smart money is getting in right now.
There's a difference between the stock market and the broader economy. Look at the situation in the US.
A house payment for a cheap car for 6-8 Years is a no brainer. Keep your 90s early 2000s vehicle forever, cheaper in long end with basic maintenance and light/heavy repairs.
It's unrealistic for investors to expect double digit returns. There is a greed mentality where everyone only wants to be rich. The American dream used to be family based. Its now a fantasy of being rich and material and luxury based.
The issue is the ridiculous cost of buying not just a new car but used cars. Yet GM, Ford, Toyota, etc. are multi-billion $ Co's with CEO's making $30M annually+. So people are keeping their vehicles. A new vehicle every couple of years has become a luxury so we keep them.
New subscriber. I’m in India. Expat from USA left when I saw Hillary vs Donald, just cashed out. Any questions I can answer? There is zero inflation here. Not a chemtrail in the sky either.
I am a contract worker accountant - job boards are full of jobs that have been filled and recruiters keep them on to look busy or for clickbait.Electric cars values are suffering enormous fall off in value - leasing companies are going to take a huge hit sooner or later.
I think the data point on jobs is a MISS. Government hiring leads the jobs numbers, more part time jobs than ever before, more people have multiple jobs and due to layoffs and severance packages thousands of jobs losses are not being reported yet. 2023 total revisions down from headline jobs numbers was over 1 Million.
Happening right now on eBay as prices for Tesla battery electrics continue to go off a cliff whilst volume availability soars both new and used. Definitely has the *"feel"* of a deflation but haven't had a deflation in the USA since 1929 so don't really know what to make of the current situation "that feeling that where we are is some place we have never been before" George Carlin.
Happened upon your channel tonight. Many associates have told me this downturn is a slow crush in lieu of a crash. You have good info on serious subjects. I'm now subscribed!
Oct 87 can happen again, in a flash.
You drive an old truck because you’re a smart guy.
Thank you
Thank you for sharing your knowledge, sir.
In UK new vans that used to cost around 25k still too much, now 60k and 8months waiting.
Used market is gone insane 20k for 100000miles used banged up work van.
Squeeze became a strangulation, tyranny and open season to kill of real tax payers small and medium business.
100% correct Sir. Thank you.
Thank you
That unemployment included under age of 18. Honestly these age don’t have to work.
Not always true. I started working at 16 to help the family during low times. Worked in the family transmission shop at 10 years old cleaning transmission housings and learning how to fix cars. That was 40 years ago.
Let alone, no real job-skills
That was in regards to China's economy. They put their population to work right out of the womb.
No one wants electricity vehicles 😶
Have you seen China. Almost all electric.
Consumer debt, interest rates, and national debt can only add up to one thing: disaster.
TODAY IS THE TOMORROW YOU SHOULDA FEARED YESTERDAY.
Does anyone know where the used Amazon vans are going now that they are converting to EVs?
For equity investors since the market is currently sitting at high, it's not a bad idea to follow Warren Buffet to sell some to build a cash cushion and put them in short term T-bills which yields about 5.4% now without paying state tax. Warren Buffet is using the BRK's cash pile to buy either 3-month or 6-month T-bills. Price everywhere is insane. California is even worse with the $20 minimum pay for fast food restaurants. Unfortunately, it inflates all restaurant food's prices. I took an out-of-town couple for dim sum in San Francisco. Four of us the bill was about $200 and it's not including the tip. Well, I won't be eating out for a while. In a sense, we should change from our endless consumption society. If it's not done for our wallet, we should do it for the environment. There is too much waste.
What your daughter said about companies posting jobs that don't exist is not completely unimaginable.
In 2005 - 2007 when I was unemployed and looking for work, another person looking for work told me that she had found out that some employers were not taking job postings down after they had filled the position in case the person they hired did not work out.
Not only does this practice make it appear that there are a lot of jobs available, it makes it harder for the unemployed to find jobs. So there are a lot of job postings, but those jobs do not exist.
4:54 That Avg. Car payment is roughly double what our mortgage payment was starting in 1992 (and the subsequent 25 odd years). We didn't drive our 920 s.f. home around, but we sure have spent time in it.
It’s 50/50
But the top fifty percent is in very reasonable shape.
Well seems even that segment is becoming more conservative . The guys at the top feast on the bottom , when the bottom gets skinny the top half gets hungry.
I would imagine that people would be hesitant to purchase silver when it is spiking, at whatever the markup, because they think the price will follow the normal trend of returning to the stable price after a spike. But agree with you on the cracks in the economy in general. Everyone around the water cooler is talking about it. Plus the political instability and looming election no doubt has a lot of people taking a wise wait-and-see attitude.
THANK YOU!! just came in from our community get together and I was explaining these exact same points!! Great Video!
I’ve been thinking this for years but any and all kinds of internal combustion vehicles ( non imported, and with no tweaks and tuning on engines and exhaust) need to only cost roughly $2000 max. This is 150 year old technology with no R&D needed moving forward. There is nothing “novel” to the automobile. Even with the reliance on more technology needed like “computers” and touch screen displays, this is all mass produced tech anyways- again, little or no research and development needed. Cars should be cheap - plain and simple
We saw the same thing during the GWBush years. That fool pushed consumers to shop till they dropped. Adding to this, surplus wall street investment money and banks flooded the banks with excess liquidity and bubbkes developed. 2008 occurred and we learned nothing.
Today, things are much worse and a major correction is coming.
Shrinkflation 😢economy 😅
150K miles on a 2015 truck and going strong. Decided in 2015 we did not need more than 1 vehicle for the 2 of us and we have made it work!
Great video, and congratulations; because you have it pinned down to the absolute center of things. What I see is that things are never coming back to what they were, and a full mind set change is in order (mayor changes for all of us). And the sooner we realize it the better prepared we will be. Our children and grand children have to adjust to a new reality, and we have to do what we must to understand it, and deal with it now (asap).
If companies are posting phony jobs, jobs that don't exist just to paint a pretty picture, what is the stock market also doing to make us feel the economy is doing great?
What your son told you is exactly what a german gold dealer told me.
The oil companies collectively profited $40B+. Most of the problem is corporate greed.
In two minutes, he managed to say: down and down and down. Great presentation.
The covid cash has run out.
It’s even worse. I think the Covid money ran a little while ago. Then, people used their credit cards. Now, those are maxed out. The lifelines are dwindling.
According to the president the economy is booming? What is it then? I am confused.
The president is being fed lies by bureaucracies that are being fed lies.
Telling you what you want to hear.
A crash happens when something we did not see or anticipate occurs. When we observe cracks, we adjust, thus diverting away from a “crash”, or preventing a crash. it’s always the unaccounted cracks that take us down. It’s kinda like schroeingleberry cat. Is the crash in the box? Something like that
If they put a 100% tariff on Chinese cars, they can still sell them for 50% less than American cars.
Nobody has money yet 1 in 10 vehicles I see on the road is a Tesla 💁🏼♂️
I’m guessing you live in California, where people are much more eco-conscious. You see Teslas everywhere you go here on the west coast of Florida but the ratio of Teslas to ICE vehicles is much lower.
A quick google search showed the monthly payments for a Model Y and Model 3 is between $600 and $700/month. I was a little surprised that those two lower priced models are actually relatively affordable. But I’d imagine that might still be out of reach for the average American.
And then there’s people like my wife who wouldn’t have an EV if it was given to her. lol
Car manufacturers are adamant about producing unaffordable vehicles with premium options. People need affordable cars, not these extremely expensive ones.
Our car payment is about $280 per month. We owe less than $8,000 on it. We also have about $160,000 not locked up in retirement accounts. We invested in things that did not depreciate in value like expensive automobiles. Cars and trucks are necessary but they are money pits. They are not assets. A house is not an asset either until you sell it.
Ross Perot saw this eventuality clear back in '91. When NAFTA was getting passed and the 'global economy' was getting birthed. Now we're reaping what has been sown for the last few decades. Our economy depends on consumerism, but most of our middle class jobs were shipped overseas to cheap slave labor markets. So now lots of people are poor and have much smaller incomes. So people have to be frugal which means we arent buying things. I knew globalization was gonna be trouble back in the 90s but no one cared. FF to today, and the reality is finally hitting home.