Tony Seba's 2027 battery prediction is about to happen 3 YEARS EARLY!
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 ม.ค. 2024
- Tony Seba's 2027 battery prediction is about to happen 3 YEARS EARLY!
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#tonyseba #batteryprediction #battery #batteryproduction #batteries
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One of the big things people don't realize about BEVs vs ICE powered vehicles is the recycle ability. Lithium and sodium are elements. No matter how many times you build/recycle/build/recycle, they will always remain lithium and sodium. Always. Crude oil, once refined and burned, will *never* be crude oil again. Ever.
That's basically correct but you do lose roughly 1% each time you recycle. A small number elements will recycle at about 0.5%. So it's not unlimited.
Such an excellent, pertinent point. 👍
@@macmcleod1188
Also an important point - that any procedural imperfections that lose/waste material will equal that much lost turnover.
But the validity of the original point, of course, is unmarred.
True. It's pretty hard to recycle released energy.
thats cool, but its cheaper to use new lithium than recycle it. which is why CATL uses new only
"All predictions are wrong" - so true, even for Tony Seba. His predictions were the most aggressive, but even then wrong because not aggressive enough! Thanks Viking for getting this news out.
Scarily enough, this is like the predictions for how quickly warming occurs. The numbers / projections just keep getting worse as we observe more and get better models.
@@rogergeyer9851 The more we delay action on climate change: the more urgent action becomes. The reason is that our "carbon budget" (to hold the line a 1.5C or 1/3 of an XKCD ice age unit) remains fixed.
When the Kyoto protocol was signed in 1997: we had about 50 years to phase out fossil fuels (2050 deadline).
After 25 years of inaction: we have about 7 years to phase out fossil fuels (2030 deadline)
If Conservatives get elected: we ill have 4 more years of inaction, and -1 years to phase out fossil fuels (2027 deadline, +- a few years).
I want to see a simplified EV car from Tata or China. No self-driving, 4 passenger hatchback, no frills, crank windows, regular car keys, single lug wheels, sodium batteries, range 250 miles. $6,000.
Sounds GREAT, but could it pass U S/European safety standards? Also, how about an optional battery with twice the range!
Wait for NIO sub brands.
I want an electric nissan hardbody 2 door pickup truck The 86to 94 truck
Aside from range you are describing a 2014 Leaf. Given the fall in battery prices, that car built today would cost about $14,000. But Nissan won't build them.
@@basilmcdonnell9807 I hope after-market battery replacement becomes common. The later Leafs have 40kWh and even 60KWh batteries.
If you're in Colorado 2024 is the year to buy an EV as the state incentivizes it with $5000 in addition to the Federal tax credit, and incentives from offloading a gas guzzling clunker pre-2011 may add another $6100. Plus electricity is relatively cheap here. For 2 car households there's no excuse not to make at least one an EV.
Electricity ought to be cheap. Your state has both excellent wind and solar resources. I'm in Ohio. We have a little wind and solar, but not as good as yours.
Except they won’t let you combine discounts.
Tax parasite.
@@thesjkexperienceWrong, you get the Federal plus the one from CO. Also, if you're income qualified used EVs get a subsidy as well.
I live in Colorado and I’m seeing dozens of Teslas on the streets every day.
As an Albertan, this makes me very happy for the environment and as a consumer and very worried for the Tar Sands... And that's a good thing!
It occurred to me recently that if we phase out fossil fuels within 7 years to avert disaster (because the way "carbon budgets" work [the more we delay,] the more urgent change becomes): the "energy" companies will no longer have to pay royalties for generating their synfuels.
AFAIK there is no royalty for harvesting wind or solar power. There is probably a royalty involved in extracting uranium or thorium for nuclear power.
Don't worry, there will be millions of legacy gas and diesel cars on the roads for decades to come, and there's also shipping, aviation, household heating, even some power generation to keep those EV's humming along. Fossil fuels are not done yet.
Stripmining tar that needs to be processed with natural gas and fresh water within the Athabaska River valley is one of the worst things that happens in this country. What makes it even worse that most of the damage is driven by foreigners. Colonization in Canada never ended. Hopefully the shift to electric will choke off a good portion of global ff demand and force the shutdown of these environmental horrors.
@@aftonline
Just like there were horses on the roads for decades?
It took about 20 years for vehicles to replace horses, and by the end of the 1920s horses were hard to find on roads.
I think a lot of "usable" ICEs will be recycled, because people will have moved on to EVs instead.
@@pin65371
If Alberta can find something more useful to do with bitumen than burning it, especially if it means not having to ship it out of province, that would be wonderful.
Every time I think about buying an EV another story comes out where I say - well buy one after this is in EVs. I'm glad there's a heap of enthusiasts that will test these new changes.
Buy a NIO and in less than 5 minutes install the latest battery technology when it’s available. Years later it will hold it resell value because of battery swap.
@@benplumlee751 But you only get battery swap with renting the battery (at least in Europe), paying it's price every ~6 years. Plus it's not quite sure yet if NIO will still exist in a few years.
Did you buy a computer between 1980 and 2015? Do you own a cell phone? Such a mentality followed through fully means you won't own an EV till like 2035-2040.
If you're that concerned about it, you could always lease and get the latest and greatest every few years while not being left holding the bag if the residual dropped too much.
@@tHebUm18 For consumer electronics that is true, for cars it isn't.
Probably. But there's also good reasons to not be an early adopter. eg These days I buy last generation CPU and GPU instead of the next gen. This saves me about $1500 a year.@@tHebUm18
Thanks Vike. Incredible news. I think there is a very strong chance it will come true by the end of the year.
The product I have my eye on is the power wall. At $50 US per kw, the batteries in a power wall will now cost about $650 U.S ( $1000 Australian). When the price of a power wall gets to $8,000 Aust from $12.900 (plus installation} that is when going off grid with solar will be the same price as being on it. Tesla should be able to achieve this and you would think every battery maker would too.
You are being well and truly ripped off if Tesla are charging you $8500 Aust for something that contains only $1000 worth of batteries.
Does make you wonder why they cost so much more per kWh.
solar + powerwall + electric car = no worries about fuel costs
@@philwelling7172 Because there is much more than just batteries in a Powerwall package! And... because they have a market at that price, and have presently not enough batteries to sell more than they do. So, it is good business sense... even if I also would like it to be cheaper.
My buddy in South Australia had his 13.5Kwh battery installed for under AUD4000. Not Tesla but cheaper and bigger so BETTER!
Great show, very interesting to watch the drop in battery prices, great point about what happens when battery recycling kicks in. Love my Tesla. I used to ride a bicycle to work but got sick of sucking down all that disgusting exhaust. Our kids could have a wonderful world of clean air.
with a million power grids in he countryside lolol, oh thats dead anyway i guess
🤗 GREAT NEWS SAM … for our future and it’s gonna get better 👍‼️💚💚💚
Be great if home storage comes down a lot , we’re currently getting gouged severely , look what we get offered here in Australia $2k per KW ……
Wait for iron-air and thermal batteries to hit the residential market. When one has the room for other chemistries, lithium doesn't make sense.
Hi,
I'm in nz and my power bill is nz 0.17 cents per kwhr for my home.about nzd 300 per month for 4 people what is the charge in Australia for the average home ?
😂
@@ala-hc4rx lol we’re around 40 cents from memory …….
@@ala-hc4rx here in CommicFornia it is 33 ¢/kWh,
now the state wants to charge you based on your income.
the more you make the more you pay.
so expect electricity prices to go way up in CommicFornia,
so all the illegals immigrants get free food, free place to stay, free education, and free health care.
Great news Viking! Love Tony Seba and Rethink X - great battery assembly videos! Will buy an EV ASAP!
We must stop burning stuff!!
3-4 years ago we got a Tesla Powerwall. It cost £6000 total installed with inverter etc. I had a quote last year for an additional one at £8500 installed. If they can go down in price to be £3000 then it makes installing a second and third one and then replacing our gas boiler with a heat pump a possibility, as we could then run a heat pump on 7.5p kwh overnight electricity during the day time. Sure on the 20-30 coldest days of the year we will still need some daytime electricity to top up the heating, but this could make it financially viable to switch. This winter our gas price price has averaged below 4p kwh. So let's assume a new heat pump works at 3 times the efficiency, so we would need to pay less than 12p kwh for electricity for it to be cheaper. Our current day time rate is about 30p kwh so that is not going to help at all, but with a nighttime rate at 7.5p kwh for electricity and cheep batteries then you can switch over become greener and eventually start paying back the cost of the batteries and the heat pump! Pretty sure the payback will still take a while.
Remarkable times. It's coming down in price so fast that it makes sense to wait if you are thinking grid scale.
Sodium batteries
It seems that sodium is likely to make lithium only for high performance and aviation applications! Most people will choose robust affordable sodium vehicles ~50-100kg heavier!?
Well not 100% the goal is to hit X amount of storage per package. Meaning, you could go hybrid reducing the amount of cells in one area as the power dens increase and slip the other half for Na. So in the perfect world, yes we would have Na batteries, but without increasing the over all weight or size by trading out the benefits and cons of both.
🤗 GREAT NEWS SAM …and it’s going to get better 👍‼️💚💚💚
Golden News. 🎉🎉🎉
Thanks Sam, always enjoy your vids and appreciate the work you do.
I appreciate that!
I personally am a huge fan glad to hear it....
Good to hear , it really will be cheaper and I predicted a cliff edge in 2025 and have been holding back on buying an EV for this reason so next year will be bright and cheerful for all
Everybody is waiting, with prices continuing down and interest rates sky high now. Well, not everybody, EV sales continue to rise. They will skyrocket in the years to come as prices level out.
Thanks Sam. As more and more companies see the business opportunity to make batteries as the disruption continues, competition will be fierce driving prices down...
The future is bright 🎉
Great video, Sam! Also your stories on solar and utility batteries etc are very relevant these days. Great work!!
Glad you like them!
Really is fantastic. Thank you for continuing to follow and report on these things.
Our pleasure!
REALLY what we need is a 20 years warranty for EV's battery. The reason why there is not currently longer warranty is because the battery will not last that time.
That means also in consumer perspective, that we do not have full trust for EV's.
If longer warranty is not possible, we do not have resale value for older EV-cars which are over 10-15 years old.
Currently there is no suitable, trustable (battery is the risk) and affordable old EV's for consumers on budget under 10 000 dollars/euros.
Love all these updates on battery research and improvements to them!
Where the fuck are these fantasy batteries?? Nowhere to be found.
Even if this is true and does drop this year, the chances of manufactures making the EV cheaper than the ICE is unlikely. They may make them the same cost but it is unlikely they will make it cheaper, they will just have a larger profit margin.
What is the logic? Tesla to some degree and BYD totally will make their own and undercut the others to grab or maintain market share.
In many countries ice wont matter when new ice sales are prohibited...its coming sooner than you think
so when will the price drop influence house batteries right now its cheaper for me to buy a new 75kwhEv and use it a s a house battery exclusively compared to buy a 75kwh house battery..
This is also good for those with solar power and off grid battery system... solar panel is getting cheaper, battery is getting cheaper better install more solar panel and battery then to depend on electricity from supplier that keep on increasing the rate.. if you are living in a tropical country with plenty of sun... it is a very good ideal to install solar panel... i have install one.
I saw his tweet. I cheekily said that he was wrong and that he was being too cautious. I suggested that it would be way earlier. He liked the reply. 😊
Why does insurance have to cost 190 a month? It's the only thing keeping me from buying.
My diesel SUV is dearer to insure than my 2019 Tesla.
Because the insurance companies get what they can and tell us they have not yet enough data.
Nothing but good will come from this!
Cheers
lifepo4 vs sib, SIB(sodium ion batt) op temp range -30 to +60 and no chance of fire, are now here, lifepo4's are 0 to +30, and have not heard of any with op discharge range lower than 0C other than lto ( lithium titanate)-50 C to +65C discharge temp and 10,000 plus cycles, however the chargers as usual are absent in useful numbers compared to gas stations
Tony Seba has been way more right than wrong on his predictions regarding disruptive technology. Makes me laugh to hear than he underpredicted the timeline for electric battery costs coming down! He is the man and the source I listen too. Thanks for pointing this out!
This channel is quite positive. Very good to digest!
Thank you Sam! Another brilliant masterpiece!
Glad you enjoyed it!
Li-ion is fine for EVs.
But for Stationary Grid scale storage, Sodium Ion can be cheaper than Li ion if economy of Scale is achieved.
Plus it will free up Lithium for EVs, which will make EVs even more cheaper.
Yes that’s what we all want and need, cleaner Air for all and a Healthier Planet, thanks Mr Viking for all your efforts 👏🏼💪🏼👏🏼
EVS are not cleaner than ICE. EVS are worse.
@@markmiller8903Stop being negative and silly!
Rapidly falling battery prices are fantastic but if this is true, if you buy an EV now, you will take a bath on the resale value of your EV. This has already happened on some Tesla EVs. I'm getting old and just bought a Toyota hybrid that gets 42 MPG but my next car in 10 years (if I'm still alive) will be an autonomous EV.
Why is that?
@@vancity2349 As prices for batteries goes down and technology improves, buyers of used EVs will only be willing to pay less. Every time Musk lowers the price of a Tesla model, owners of that model see their resale price go down.
Thanks, Sam!
Thanks for making me aware of Tony. Really interesting and informative, just like your videos. Keep up the good work 😊
LOVE THIS CHANNEL
You say that a brand new battery for a model 3 or y is 6000 us dollars its more like 16 thousand dollars for a new pack
Elon Musk said it would cost around $5,000 to $7,000 to replace a Tesla battery module. Each car has 4 or 5 individual battery modules. That depends on which model car you choose and if it has an extended range option. The purchase price of a battery module does NOT include installation
We've seen it for many years now, and we will continue to see it in the future. You ignore Tony Seba at your absolute peril.
Thanks Viking, the battery price drop will have an incredible impact on mega pack pricing. Grid power disruption is here.
So unless you are desperate to buy today, this sounds like a very good reason to hold off or a year and see where the prices are then?
Let’s hope battery home storage prices come down to a realistic level, at the moment they are way too expensive per kWh.
Thanks Viking!
My fuel cost average about 1/3 less than petro (3.8 miles per KWh, Chevy
Bolt). Charge at home @ .10 per KWh. Gasser at 30 mpg @ $2.50 per gallon. If your only means of charging is public charging, @.30 KWh, than it's a wash on fuel savings compared to a gasser. You gain on less maintenance but lose on time. Sure, I want to save the planet but my main motivation is reducing my transportation cost. I own two EVs & a gasser. I would not own the EVs if I had to rely on public charging. Not prime time yet. As far as lithium prices going down, great. The reality is you swap one environment impact for another.
I like how this guy is so excited for our planets future. This is how we all should be :)
Thanks!
Welcome!
These drops in prices for a battery pack brings total grid independance a step closer.
Here in the Netherlands prices for electricity are currently 50 dollarcent a kWh.
Currently the energy from my solarpanels (18 kWp) or approx. 18 MWh/year can be returned to the grid
for the same price. From 2025 that is gonna change. Having a battery of approx. 100 kWh and a diesel 5 kW aggregate backup with smart software and a dynamic energy contract (day prices on a hourly basis) will earn me 3000 USD a year and no energy bill. If 100 kWh will cost me 6000 to 7000 USD the investment pay back time is approx. three years.
At today's exchange rate, US$50/kWh is 355 Chinese Yuan/kWh. 320Y/kWh is US$45/kWh.
The rate of development in the EV sector combined with reductions in purchase price ban be viewed as good news for prospective purchasers but once you have taken delivery the resale value of your vehicle is likely to drop which combined with ‘normal’ inflation depreciation means you could be ‘losing’ considerable amounts of money in the short term. This combined with the cost of borrowing means that both riveted individuals and organisations like Hertz may keep delaying purchases or avoid entering the EV market altogether. Their will also have a knock on effect on ICE owners whose assets will also shrink rapidly with dramatic effect on the second hand market thus limiting owners ability to buy new vehicles.
The only way for production is to increase robotics, automation and the use of self-learning AI. And this will inadvertently lead to a massive price reduction.
Saltium must mix with the lithium and the Battery 🔋 will never have problems Changing during the Winter ❄️❄️☃️☃️❄️
Well done!
Cost curves are like gravity. - Tony Seba
Even if we recycle a 100% of all batteries, there is still a tiny bit of lost material. So we'll need a small fraction of the minerals to fill the gap. So yes, mining will be minimal within the next decade or so.
Exciting times, and if the new geothermal power generation plants work out as advertised we really will have a far cleaner future.
where can i get theese $50/kwh cells? i'm still stuck with $500/kwh.
I have just bought a BMW i4. At first glance, you'd say it's an expensive electric car. But if you compare it with the petrol car (430i Grand Coupe) that looks almost identical, the price difference is ZERO. So in some cases we are already at the same price level.
Appreciate your video, Sam. Hope you and your wife are well.
Could you do a video specifically on Tony Seba predictions for sodium ion batteries, cost and adoption curve?
What we are seeing is "Economies of Scale" taking affect. Wright's Law in action. When you double your production you cut your unit cost. With EV batteries the saving will be significant but the final saving won't be known until the new battery factories are running.
This is what I'm waiting for, thanks Sam.
My pleasure!
Where can one buy batteries for the best price? For solar residential applications
Economies of Scale, both in manufacturing and commodity extraction (i.e. Lithium mining) - will continue to drive down costs....which will make the EV value proposition even better over the next few years.
Everything will come down - even the utilities if they want to stay relevant. What a time!
I understand why the focus is on battery packs for EV’s but here in South Africa EV’s are totally impractical. The infrastructure is just not up to it.
That said there is a huge market here for domestic battery’s as those that have the means make alternative arrangements.
When are these battery producers going to feed that market? All I see here is battery price increasing.
I’m waiting for EVs and infrastructure in Australia to be better for the road trip uses case. Cost also needs to come down for me. I’m confident that within 10 years I’ll be buying an EV.
It would be nice if they would pass those cost savings down to retail customers. I have been trying to buy cells to build a battery bank for my house. I just cant afford cells that are 10 bucks a piece.
If battery prices are so cheap, why are they charging so much for replacement battery packs? Tesla installs "refurbished" battery packs under warranty that cost them next to nothing when they could be putting new ones in there. It seems like Tesla is profiting off the gullibility and ignorance of the consumer and when the warranty expires, oh yes, now you can have a new battery pack but it will cost you $22k, thank you very much, when the cost of the cells to Tesla is probably less than half that amount, especially since Tesla makes its own cells and gets them at cost. What a scam.
Yes word is getting out that they are crocks.The Chinese will dominate
After listening to this cast and reading the comments, I felt that a comment from someone outside the bubble (which I think is the viewpoint of many in America) was in order. The EV is a great concept whose time has not yet come. The focus of this article is that EV’s will be cheaper. That is not the problem for many. A fundamental improvement in battery tech is essential. I would need an EV with double to triple the range of the current, that is cold insensitive, that charges in minutes, and that has a zero probability of catching fire in my garage. I would also need a significant build out of charging infrastructure, with good maintenance so that half of the chargers at a given charge facility aren’t inoperable. I understand that solid state batteries in the research stage may address some of these issues. But that is then, and this is now. I am pro environment by the way, but not enough to entangle myself in a technology that simply isn’t ready. An additional elephant in the room, is that the environment does not end at America’s borders … it is planetary. And if we took our vehicle emissions to zero globally, it would barely move the needle, because there is currently a massive buildout of coal fired power plants in China, India, and the developing world. These folks either don’t care or don’t have the trillions of dollars in available assets to make a green transition happen. I will buy an EV when the technology matures, because every little bit helps. But for true progress to be made, the elephant must be addressed.
Once you finally get one, you will wonder why you didn't get it earlier. We have our second one and just finished a 3765 mile trip in our EV. Things are improving every day. It is not only the charging infrastructure and battery range that makes people shy away from EVs. Range anxiety is an EV's enemy. Gas stations are everywhere and plentiful. Charging stations are multiplying fast also. We have been on 8 trips of 2k to 4k and have never run out of energy. It's a mind shift. I now add charging in my road planning. There are internet planning tools for EVs that are free and reliable. It can be done and we are doing it.
There will be a bit of mining as 95% - 98% of tghe material can be reclaimed through recycling. So mining could be down 98% but not quite zero.
As I understand it, a combustion engine in a vehicle requires a radiator and regular oil changes. An EV does not require either. Correct me if I'm wrong. Are these things factored into the cost of a combustion engine vehicle?
solar prices from China are actually rising thanks to Suez canal problems. There is waiting list for solar in EU right now estimating that the deliveries going to arrive around april.
Battery prices dropping in an electric car is a bright spot in the news and it’s not a lie. Like a lot of the news is.
Cycles matters more than today’s market share will tell you. The used market and full life cycle including recycling expenses and energy budget still rarely are mentioned.
Prices are driven by supply and demand. Notice there are TWO factors determining the price.
Falling demand = falling price.
Or an abundance of supply
We still need priced for battery storage to come way down. I just priced them for my home and the installed cost is still over $1,100 per kWh. Inexpensive home and small business-scale storage batteries will jump start the transition away from fossil fuels. They will also democratize energy production and storage.
what about insuring it, or parking charges through the roof
Can’t wait to see all home appliances completely cordless with enough power to have optimum performance.
In the Netherlands the price per kWh storage for a home battery is about €800,-. I am very curious how long we have to wait until the shop price reaches €100,- I have a bad feeling the prices are kept high for years
Excellent insight and information as usual.
I know I am off topic, but let me just reinforce that the grid can not supply all the future electricity energy because the grid itself is insanely expensive to expand.
The future is not generation and grid transmission of electricity to the millions and millions of ends of the grid.
The future is generation and storage at the millions and millions of ends of the grid.
Most vehicles are parked 23hrs every day at a building, and so if EV and V2G or V2X and selfplug-in, then local grids will balance out local storage.
Distant renewables and nuclear will fail economically because of their grid dependence.
5 times more electricity and grid capacity in a no fossil fueled future.
Consumers will have the technology to go offgrid even in the suburbs.
66% of electricity bills are grid costs.
Those left on the grid will be faced with fixed grid costs in their grid electricity bills.
The grid may be an abandoned asset.
If batteries such cheap, when will the upgrade market start? I.e. give your old Leaf, ZOE, E-up etc twice the range, and a fresh battery at a very affordable price.
Unfortunately we all know that in Australia, the price of a new vehicle WILL NOT go down relative to the drop in Lithium and battery prices.
Our fabulous government will simply find or make new taxes to ensure EV and ICE vehicles are making the government maximum profits while they also get their kickbacks from the oil companies
Thanks
@4:12, if the price LiFePO battery reach $50/kwh, then the Sodium ion battery will be even less. The trajectory is clear. ICE is no longer competitive.
Thanks Sam. Reading through the Comments, you do take it on the chin. I'd rather not. But you do good work. I always thought you must be off your nut regarding Toyota, not coz Iike their boring cars, but because they did quality manufacturing at scale better than anyone. But they are so missing it. Yes, they have debt, but they also have $75 Billion in cash and equvalrents. So they have time to adjust. But they're making crazy announcements on strategy. I don't get it. I hated their boring cars but as an analyst had to admire their management. At one point in the 80s 90s they had so cash they were Completeley Self Funding!!! How could they screw up so badly? But I guess the did. Thanks for you channel. It's high quality.
Competiton is good.. That's why all the fire FUD and cold FUD
So why are so many EV sales stalled in the US?
Wow! That one was interesting. Maybe I will get an EV next year.
It’s difficult to know when to buy a new Bev as you keep saying the prices will go down in the future.
The infrastructure where I live isn’t prepared for a huge change to EV. If the batteries are going to dramatically change the price so will the purchase price.
Great wold except if you live near a lithium mine and more importantly at lithium processing area.
What battery does the new Tesla Model 3 ‘Highland’ Short-Range rear wheel drive have? CATL LFP?
Just test drove the M3 Highland the other day (Saturday) in Canada 🇨🇦. Much, much better now.
Nice job
The biggest problem with the introduction of EVs is not the car itself but the supply of electricity to use it. Even in the most develop countries, the grid system and the production of electricity are not sufficient for the added load that is required. Even if the price of the car was to drop to zero, if you can't get it charged when you need to, it is not convenient. Add to that the price of electricity that will have to go up considerably to upgrade the system and you get to a point where it will not be more affordable than an ICE car.
I am assuming you do not have an EV. The reason I think that is because if you did have an EV you would be aware of the fact that most EV's are charged during off-peak periods. So you don't need vast amounts of extra power or higher capacity grid connections..
" Add to that the price of electricity that will have to go up considerably to upgrade the system and you get to a point where it will not be more affordable than an ICE car." Another example of you just not thinking about this. If electricity prices go up I'll put solar on my roof.
Watch what is happening in Nigeria when gov removed the fuel subsidy and market if forcing them to go solar. The gas for their cars and generators tripled in price ! For me, I got 19.2 kWh, ROI in 6 more years and my energy will be free. Right now off-peak only costs 5c/kWh in Arizona.
Even with 100% reclamation of lithium from recycled batteries, if you set out to dramatically increase the number of electric vehicles in the world, you're going to need more battery materials.