Battery prices just fell off a cliff!
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 มี.ค. 2024
- Lithium-ion batteries often get a bad rap in the media these days, blamed for high cost, unwanted fires and poor working conditions in the supply chain. But the fact remains that this chemistry provides the power for billions of devices around the world, from the tiniest pacemakers to the largest utility scale stationary energy storage, and the manufacturers are making great strides to improve their systems. So can they do enough to stay at the top of the pile?
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Even for ordinary homeowners, this is a really important development, because net metering programs are inevitably going to get shut down as utilities have more power than they need during daylight hours, due to excess rooftop solar. At that point, utilities are likely to introduce time-of-use pricing, and then arbitrage where you buy in the day and sell in the evening will make home batteries pay for themselves, even for those who don't own any solar at all! The only barrier will be the cost of the batteries and the more that crashes, the more of a no-brainer it is. The net effect of en-masse adoption of this could be a profound levelling of the demand curve, which could eliminate gas peaker plants.
Gas peak plants are already being abandoned by investors. 40% of projects in the USA have been stalled bcos can't get investors. Same is happening to nuclear but governments are using our tax money to subsidise them at huge comparative cost, for some undisclosed reason.
@@bobcannell7603
Why they are so massively subsidize is clear if you don't think them as power source, but as source for weapon grade Plutonium…
Even if that doesn't serve a purpose anymore... well as long as that orange face idjit doesn't get his hands on the red button
Yes, here in Australia we are nearing the end of FiT (Feed in Tariffs) because of the success of rooftop solar. Queensland, where I live, is further behind than some other States but even here over two thirds of power during the day comes from solar and a huge slice of that is rooftop solar. This has resulted in negative pricing most days between 9am and 4pm even in summer when aircons are running.
FiT are now typically just 5c per Kwh which, whilst tiny, isn’t viable for power companies. The ROI for solar panels has all but gone even though they have never been cheaper but the message hasn’t got through yet to homeowners or the government so incentives still remain. Home batteries have been more about back up power than saving on power bills hence relatively few homes have them and they are expensive. A typical battery installation costs more than a solar roof installation which is totally insane!
Most energy providers charge a flat rate here with no peak and this discourages battery take up too because people are shielded from the true cost of peak time rates. All this will soon change I feel and if this happens and batteries can be bought down to a reasonable price then the shift from rooftop solar to battery installation will happen.
@@bobcannell7603 "Number of nuclear reactors under construction worldwide as of June 2023, by country" article on statistica shows US has 1 under construction, and I think the last one went online in 2016.
time-dependent pricing has been common for 2 decades in Canada.maybe I don't understand
"Extremely unlikely 1.5 scenario.." that was so funny in such a dark way
Kudos for calling out food sources and waste in the list of big things that need changing!
He states 30% food waste in developed parts of the World, but fails to substantiate that claim.
@@grahamcook9289 Isn't it well known that restaurants and other food places produce massive food waste?
@@grahamcook9289 A cursory search would yield many many sources that substantiate these claims. Even a drive to your local grocer or fast food location and "peeking" in their garbage will tell a story. Americans in particular don't understand best by dates and sell by labeling and are highly likely to discard good food because of a stamp. If the food doesn't look good it ends up in second hand markets which can't effectively make use of the goods and ends up scrapping a large part of what they receive. A momentary blurb reminding people that 20% of what goes in a landfill these days is food waste doesn't need further explanation when an on-line search can direct you to videos, websites, articles, and discussions in great a detail as you'd like to delve into.
China produces 29% of CO2 emissions and has slave labour to produce green hardware, the UK produces less than 1% and virtually zero slave labour, sort out China first, it makes more sense, US second, and if you are on about turning all into vegans only if you want civil war, you have your choice and we have ours, no vegetables were harmed in this post, Liz Truss is safe!?!
@@grahamcook9289 Waste is waste - it should be 0% in which case he wouldn’t need to call it out 🙄
4:55 $56/kWh is insane progress! The Department of Energy says EVs will be cheaper than gas cars once battery prices go under $100/kWh
I have a feeling that there might be dumping going on-trying to drive local production out of business with unsustainably low pricing. We’ve seen this before in the Photovoltaic field.
@@robblincoln2152 No harm to you, but that could have easily been said over the past 15 years. Yet the prices keeps going down.
So, now what? Change the goalposts?
That's exactly China's MO. They know they can only dominate the world economy by making the rest of the world send their wealth to China. @@robblincoln2152
@@davidfoley8329 really? How much production have we seen in the US before now (outside of Tesla) in the last 15 years? Now we have 15 of start up with real funding behind them. What has changed is the insane level of demand for batteries, and the undeniable fact that nations are competing to establish local production as a matter of National security.
So what’s changed? Nearly everything.
But it’s a relatively simple matter to determine if dumping is taking place, I’m sure those who have access to the hard data could quickly determine the truth of the matter.
@@robblincoln2152lithium metal prices are 1/4 of 2022 prices. Cheaper ingredients = cheaper batteries.
Look at the predictions that Tony Seba made almost ten years ago on everything dealing with the transition to an electric economy and he basically nailed it
he pretty well understands the sigmoid function
@@stefanweilhartner4415 Tony Seba is the GOAT.
and how is the power for this "electric economy" generated ? with coal power plants ?
@@bobsaturday4273 the UK has basically eliminated coal from it's power generation
@@bobsaturday4273 The power generated by coal in the year 2000 in the United States 🇺🇸 was 52.8 percent and it is 18.9 percent today⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
reality in germany:
price difference between a VW tiguan and an ID.4: 6000€
every 1000€ that an EV is getting cheaper makes a HUGE difference in sales volume now.
and higher sales volumes for EVs boosts the economy of scale for EVs and increases the money that is available for further developments.
another interesting viewpoint:
after the ID.3 came to market, three battery sizes were (more or less) available. but all three had an NMC chemistry.
in a few years it would make sense to offer:
* NMC for long range
* LFP for mid range
* Natrium for short range
In the UK we have a few popular websites for buying new and used cars. Auto trader is the most popular. You can find new EVs with huge discounts to help the manufacturers meet their EV quotas.
Easily more than the price difference between EV and petrol.
Have we actually solved the problem of recycling and relatively short life/expensive replacement of batteries and EV repairs in general?
natrium (DE) = sodium (EN)
@@pawelnotts Tesla batteries last more than 500,000 miles, and EVs need far fewer repairs than internal combustion vehicles. And EV motor has one moving part that doesn't wear out in 1 million miles. These are real world numbers from actual EVs and testing.
Compare that to a combustion engine. Don't get your information from oil industry shills, please.
@@pawelnotts Yes. Today's EV batteries last long enough that they will never need to be replaced and can be given a second life in fixed storage after the car is retired. After that they can be recycled to recover 95% of the metals. As long as you don't have a crash and physically damage the battery, average EV repair and maintenance costs are much lower than for ICE cars.
Thanks for another great video. Best of luck over the weekend, I look forward to watching the videos of the various debates.
I don't as he's a silly old naive slaphead in thrall to the anarchists at XR/Insulate Britain, Just Stop Oil etc, who are just exploiting environmental issues to promote their cause of anarchy.
Thank you :-)
But will the lower prices be passed to the "working family"?
That's not how profit and cartels work!
nope.
The Chinese are coming with their cars so it's not a choice. Price reductions in EV space are coming. Innovative, city friendly vehicles that people have been asking for are also coming after that. No doubt in my mind.
Yes, in that the lower battery prices make it possible to build EVs at a much lower cost. The Dacia Spring is but one example.
No and its all done by extracting value from the labour of the slaves we use to mine lithium
Love those graphs!
definitely, that visual comparison realy helps getting a feel of what we are dealing with. Althoung one thing seems to be missleading in their presentation in this video. that is, oil, gas and coal deposits are pretty much an accumulation of those resources in pure form, which makes exploiting them much more efficiant. It would be interesting to see how much earth needs mooving to extract the depicted mineral reserves. I realize that this varies very much depending on the earths composition at each mining site but using average values, should, none the less, give an interesting added perspective.
@@dadahoshi maybe median rather than average, but agree
You know what else is ignored when talking about the costs of transitioning? The military costs of 'managing' oil...In the US, it's a trillion dollars a year.
Oil is a finite commodity and there's nothing you can do about it. Most of it in the developing world
@@borghorsa1902 And Lithium and Cobalt aren't??
@@philiplindley7384new chemistries can forgo cobalt altogether. Lithium deposits are found worldwide. Lithium is produced in Argentina or Chile is cant remember which, Australia is a big producer, the US has huge lithium reserves but not a lot of production at the moment.
@@philiplindley7384 They're both recoverable/recyclable so in that sense no they aren't compared to fossilized hydrocarbons.
@@motimobo Yeah good luck with that...
Thank you for yet another clear and concise update. Much appreciated.
This is a quantum leap video for you. Really nice! The video index of the coming forward looking interviews you are planning makes me hunger for the day we can take a pill to gain that knowledge. Really wonderful stuff in the offing. Congratulations and thank you!
Wow, thank you!
Not mentioned but instrumental in drop in LFP prices is expiry of the patent at the end of 2022.
Interesting point.
history: patents got introduced in 14th century Venice, Italy to undermine/prohibit non-domestic competition
also: copyrights got introduced in 17th century England to prevent other publishers from reprinting books
.. any IP rule ultimately creates the "big bad" company from a field of entrepreneurs by creating a winner takes all environment and shielding him from competition.
Note: Another rabbit-hole is currency and a technical flaw with similar effects.
If u ever wanted to know why companies have to "produce" perpetual profits and all that entails - just ask. I can talk about this stuff all day - and as far as I'm aware, it's all logical and based on first principles analysis.
Can you give me a link to the patent number, please?
@@dandare1001 There are several patents. Google Hydro-Québec Lithium iron phosphate patent.
I had this discussion with an ICE loving relative last night. He mentioned that we should put up with noxious ICE fumes coming from cars as the fumes coming from the exhaust have such good filters on them that the air going into the car engine actually comes out cleaner now. I asked him if he wants to try this in his sealed garage with his car running but he declined!
Excellent rebuttle! Ive shut up multiple older know it all type males with this simple FACT.
Inc pointing them to how one of the most common way that males commit successful suicide is parking in an enclosed space rolling the windows down and turning our vehicle's on to die by inhaling the exhaust fumes. That crowd doesn't like FACTS much though. 😏
For ev vs ice fires I just mention in the U.S. alone every 4 or 5mins an ice vehicle burns down on average. And the #1 recall across ALL LEGACY ice oems is for the risk of FIRE even when parked right NOW effecting over 10,000,000 cars only 3-5 year's old.
Or how garages were originally detached structures directly because of ice vehicle fire risk. 😀👍🏻
He was referring to N oxides principally, and possibly to particulates. It's irresponsible to ask such a question, not everyone realises you will die from CO poisoning, which you can't taste or smell.
He would have been fuming.
Bet that was an exhausting conversation!!!
With catalytic converters removing nearly 100% of unburned Hydrocarbons, computer controlled fuel injection and more controlled combustion, there is very little pollution, but it's not cleaner than the air entering. Nitrous oxides are also extremely low. CO is still present but in much smaller quantities than the 1960s. It's still deadly but we no longer have serious air pollution from the early 70's. That's why the EPA now wants to regulate particulates from exhaust. In fact the only claim for how bad car exhaust is seems to be CO2 output, which is a ridiculously small amount compared to other sources even if you care about it. Electric vehicles need another 30 years before they can be considered possible replacement for all transportation. This is just extending the lines for battery improvement, energy density and distribution technology. No amount of govt money will make this change although many will claim a piece of that pie with claims that it will.
Reminder to any who complain about cobalt use: cobalt is used in car fuel manufacturing and is thrown away and never recycled. And that's a continuous use.
This is incorrect. Cobalt is used as a catalyst to take the Sulphur out of fuel. And one catalyst can be used to process 80000 gallons of fuel before needing to be recycled. And yes they are recycled resulting in very little cobalt consumption. If any at all.
I'd like a source for both of you two
@@neinherman9989 Google it - takes about 4 clicks to find citations which confirm @mickyb2661 is correct.
@@mickyb2661Thank you for inserting sense into yet another hysterical claim. For reference search "cobalt in methanol production".
I’ve been saving for a new battery and solar setup for my home.
I can’t wait to go off grid. My power company charges 1 dollar a day for a service fee. Even tho I supply twice as much power as I use. Yet I still have a bill on top of that because their feed in tariffs are absolute garbage compared to their charges.
Totally over it.
Grids are expensive. The advantage comes on the occasional week of little solar perhaps lined up with high usage. But I do note that my car has a battery that would cover three days of my average home usage, including the car. If LFP batteries drop to USD 50 per kWh by the end of 2024 as CATL predicts, then battery cost per se won't be so big a factor in going off grid.
It's good news for sure. I've been off the grid for 20 years now but I'm almost due for a battery upgrade, the lead acid ones I have now are getting sad.
@@Islander185 this is how I grew up we had a whole room full of lead acid. I’m nearing 40 and it comes full circle with a bit of technology 😅
I'm an 'Americander' who only appreciates these technologies as part of energy independence. I'm looking to get a no-grid energy setup, which includes solar, a windmill, a home battery, and an NG generator. No dependence, no outages.
A thread full of gigachads
Amazing info. The cubes of oil coal and gas next to the metal mining cubes was an interesting visual.
I would say deceptive, as those three ores are used in everything not just the motor industry, what do they say about statistics?
the news from Australia is that the lithium price has fallen so much recently that mines are being mothballed and new projects halted.
Another excellent video produced, and valuable to watch to keep current on topics covered here.
Excellent news, thank you for continuing to put out such great content!
Cheers!
Love the style of these videos with the mix of a ‘talking head’ and then the repots etc being shown. Stylish!
Thank you. I appreciate your feedback :-)
Very impressive, and well explained, thanks. I have said this some 15 years ago when the Holden Car manufacturing Plant shut down in South Australia that it should be geared up for small cost effective electric car manufacturing for city driving. So looks like we might get this in the near future. I love your rant on wastage to important too keep track of it.
"So looks like we might get this in the near future". Are you referring to small electric car manufacturing in South Aus, or in general?
To@@MrBenHaynesthanks for your interest. Yes in South Australia at the time as the Holden (GMH) factor shutdown but now hopefully this will happen anyway, but not in SA as that opportunity is well gone. One could look back at that time with dismay and the politicians and reach all sorts of conclusions.
But consider this: Manufacturing has gone out of Australia year by year and so have jobs, skills, and prosperity and a level of satisfaction that one has in a job. It never ceases to surprise me how when bringing these facts up at election time politicians do not want to know or simply agree with you but in reality do not care at all.
Bad and poor decisions are made despite the fact that these people go on fact finding tours, have millions of dollars to spend on consultants but stuff it up anyway. Is it better now? Regretfully not.
Man this channel is so good! Thanks for all the info! ❤
Glad you enjoy it!
I use your videos to share to skeptical CFO of companies when I approach them for solar conversion. Inwill be sending them this one now.
Good news this could be the pivotal point the electric car industry needs,to overcome the main stumbling block of affordability.
I agree.
Yes. But frustratingly no mention of the real source of ALL environmental challenges: our population-fed forever-growth economic systems. More people (immigration in the west, natural increase everywhere else) consuming more and more is not the path to a sustainable future.
Lamenting excess consumption while not acknowledging that our GROWTH models encourage it, is not helpful.
No one coming to the UK intends to consume less!
Population matters!
@@user-rj5kx8wr6y The reason people avoid talking about over population is that it is only as hop skip and jump from eco-fascism.
There is a LOT of low-hanging fruit we can tackle before deciding to genocide some random population.
For example: just ending R1 zoning (which prohibits both high/medium density development and commercial in vast tracts of city land) and implementing a functional mass transit system will reduce energy use by an order of magnitude (more than personal vehicle electrification will).
I am a proponent of electric vehicles. However, when I take the family on a road trip, I don’t even consider taking one of my two EVs. I take an ICE vehicle. We drive vast distances in the states. I think it is going to be hard for Americans to give up the weekend road trip ICE vehicle within the 2020s. I hope I am wrong though.
@@JohnJohnson-rl7fq If you take such a road trip less than twice a year: EV + rental for road trips can work.
The amazing consequence is that grid battery storage capacity is growing exponentially, and the annual rate is now high enouh to create serious capacity.
Until a few years ago, it simply was too expensive to be economic at any sort of scale. This made it easy for opponents of renewable energy to claim that it was impossible to construct any meaningful capacity. But now it is profitable and still improving, so the construction rate is rising massively. Goals such as 90% solar+EE/10% biomass/gas are becoming achievable rapidly.
The fact that prices are still falling shows how massively scalable these technologies are. The nuclear supplier industry in comparison is notoriously slow, because it takes highly trained specialists. Not only does it take 15-20 years to plan and construct a new reactor, but creating the supplier capacities to build new reactors at scale would add decades to that timeline.
But long complex projects in the portfolio of solutions has a wider social benefit. How much more tax will you be happy to pay for a third of the workforce to be jobless and or back into re training - leading to tech jobs and the like being flooded with staffing options reducing salaries and so on a so forth.
Construction makes up a huge portion of gdp and employment.
Throwing up nuclear plants everywhere is a net win for socio economic and environmental, as well as cheap stable supply long term.
The GDP of new construction in the United States is 4%. The energy sector makes a 5.7% and the technology sector makes up 10%.
@@mattjagger4360 Arguing that the construction costs of nuclear facilities is a social benefit is nonsensical. Those same construction workers could be employees building much-needed housing. Same benefit of employment, plus people get roofs over their heads.
Grid battery storage is not the answer and never will be the answer. It would be far more efficient to just heat things up and then store the energy as heat.
Everything you've said is made up. Your first line is an absolute nonsense sandwich with things going down hill from there. Battery storage capacity is in no way, shape or form 'growing exponentially' and the growth it does have is mostly state subsidized.
"Get a wiggle on." Very visually evocative to my mind. Thank you!
the EU really needs to take a leaf out of japans playbook. suv's and pickup trucks are just too massive. japan has a small car classification. there you get tax breaks, special car parking in the city etc. for comparison the cybertruck, while awesome - is 6m long and 2.2m wide. smaller cars take up less road space, less materials and require less batteries. teslas also have the highest accident rate as 1000hp in the hands of many causes some problems on the roads. there are significantly more plaids than veyrons.
i do love all the progress in battery tech though. in the last 30 years progress has been amazing. in the next 30 years batteries will be nothing like the ones we have today.
These things are governed by the countries themselves, not by the EU. Only import taxes if aplicable are managed by the EU.
So the best prices on LiFePo4 prismatic cells in the UK at the moment are about £100 per kWh, a 15kWh home battery is £2000. Can we really expect to see these drop by half this year? Hope so!
CATL's price estimate is for volume manufacturers. Retail prices will be double at least.
2000 pounds for 15kWh is pretty good. Is that DC coupled?
What battery is this you talking about
@@liam3284 This is for a SEPLOS rack battery. A lot cheaper than 'branded' stuff.
@@manikdesign SEPLOS is one.
we waste so little food here the dog growls at me when i put the plate on the floor for pre-wash!
😂
We waste so little here that dogs run in the opposite direction at the sight of humans.
Having a dog adds one ton of carbon to your footprint per year. Pets are part of Western overconsumption.
You have a dog!
Very positive, thanks. Great visualisations from the visual capitalist too.
Thamks for the update on LiFePO4 price structures; practicle and helpful.
Thank you . All the debunking of Fossil fuels lobbying is vital. Good work well attributed. You after an honorary degree Dave? Which University. Your younger days one or...😊
Agreed. While carbon is technically recyclable, the amount we have to store in carbon sinks to counterbalance consumption of fossil fuels is beyond the comprehension of most people and deforestation of rain forests means we are going in the opposite direction.
I do hope you are also getting a healthy dose of debunking renewables too. You would be naive to think a trillion dollar industry like renewables isn't also chock full of lobbying, shenanigans and propaganda.
@@6Sparx9 some renewables are not economicaly competitive. China is leading the renewables way with Authoritarian long term policies. A larger economy than the USA with tech workers working 12 hrs a day 6 days a week
@@EdSurridge Makes you wonder what, or more specifically who are actually considered 'renewables' to China's Communist Party.
One sides explanation is always anothers debunking. It's the definition of polarisation which is always accompanied by the background hum of incipient coercion by brain dead politicians who will follow whichever faction lobbies hardest.
Great news, Dave! Keep us in the loop, sir! 🎉😊
Will do!
Great, great reporting as ever! But I’m still running into the 50 year old house problem. I’m dong ok, but I don’t have $80,000 sitting around to clad my douse with fiber cement siding and a metal roof, or to improve my insulation, or to replace the propane water heater and furnace with electric heat pumps. And, an individual, Tesla Powerwall still costs more for 13 kWh of installed home battery storage than a brand new BYD EV with a30 kWh battery! Seems like we neeed an international, Gamin Bank-style, low interest loan program for insulation and batteries!
And, the average, 3 bedroom home will need at least 30 kWh of storage to truly go electric. So glad you are teaming up with Robert LLewellin (sp?) and Everything Electric. I hope that goes well for you both!!!
@@freeheeler09 You are pointing out that we (the modern world) have already bought a future of more than 2C warming, because we've designed a world around consuming fossil fuels. The housing issues you raise are common and will only be resolved by turning over the housing stock, but that takes a century.
If it were me. I would start with a small battery system. Most of the savings are from staying away from the 4 till 8 time period. Depending on your consumption you may 3-6 kWh battery to do this. Still not cheep I grant you. Then use the savings for future improvements. All the usual cavaiats, don't know your exact situation, usage, finances etc.
Yes. Tesla Powerwalls are the ultimate ripoff. Insulation improvement is cheap. Unfortunately house building standards in the US (no idea about Canada) are abysmal with structures designed to last only 50 or so years.
Tremendously informative 👍
Cheers Patrick :-)
Hope the show goes well!
Thank you :-)
Dacia Spring coming to the UK in the autumn. Normal 5 door car, 137 mile range, £16K.
And it won't be filled with pointless shit you don't need. The biggest revolution with EVs in years.
@@IVIRnathanreilly 0-60 20 sec. pointless shit is what it is.
@@beehappy7797 😂😂😂 no one said the energy transition would be fun
@@beehappy7797 It's a £14,345 car, what do you expect. The new Spring does it in less than 14 secs. Comparable petrol cars, the entry-level Vauxhall Corsa accelerates from 0-60 mph in 13.2 seconds. For the SEAT Ibiza entry-level model, the 0-60 mph time is approximately 14.3 seconds, so not much difference at the entry level compared to the new Dacia Spring.
@@Payteer Performance sounds OK but for real-world range? When a car mag tested 12 cars, from Mercedes to BYD, all of them were literally 100 miles less than their claimed range, and they all lied on the trip computers (in fairness 1 of them was about 85 miles less). Now add in that most people won't be comfortable driving with less than 20% charge, and that you're not supposed to always charge 100%, you actually have a pretty small range even on the "long range" cars. Throw in cold weather, finding the expected charging station doesn't work... and then what? You can't even tow an EV; needs a flat-bed.
Thank you for this content, Dave.
One giant advantage of LiFePO4 batteries over the other Li varieties is that they can be used directly into current ICE car electrical systems to replace the Pb batteries as they age ( now days very quickly). LiFePO4 has an extra advantage of being 3.2V per cell or 4x cells gives 12.8V. The other Li batteries are 3.7V per cell or 4x cell gives 14.8V. This means no changes have to be made to the existing circuits of cars for charging and use of components. There are also automotive computer component advantages as well which already have 12v busses ( inter ailia). The other Li chemistries do not charge properly and load 12v components differently.
Yeah it makes sense for Creighton to support that.
Thank you for these positive news 😊
You're welcome.
Thanks for your great content.
Glad you enjoy it!
Exxon/Mobil just last fall officially began drilling lithium bromide salt in southern Arkansas.
Apparently they expect to have more than 50 years of brine to drill and pump, using fracking.
1:37 a graph is shown that is supposed to show the price drop of battery technology compared to wind and solar (generation is not quite equivalent to storage), but in any case I don't see batteries on the graph anywhere. There is CSP, which is Concentrated Solar Power.
The graph you want is shown at 4:34
Solar today eats gas a power plant's lunch. Some grids have surplus daytime solar. At $56/kWh, batteries could start storing that surplus for the evening peak demand, eating their dinner as well.
But, those days are unpredictable and happen because backup power (natl gas) can be turned down to balance the output. The extreme variability of solar output means that other sources will always be needed.
@@randyscorner9434exactly 💯!
At those prices you will see storage finally becomming distributed. Enough storage in every building to get it trough the night and charging during the day when there is a massive over capacity in pv power costing fractions of a penny or for free from the pv installed on that same building.
The majority of the electricity grid will become a distributed network and will move away from huge centralised production and storage sites. Here the big retailers are filling their roofs with pv and are producing way more power then they need themselves. This over production can be used and stored by people in the neighbourhood living in appartments without the possibility to install pv themselves.
The big power companies are being cut out of much of the energy production as energy production becomes a distributed effort by small players that can all seel their daily over capacity to end consumers who can also store cheap peak production energy for later use when prices are high in a cheap and convenient matter.
People can also install more storage then they need themselves and become arbitragers at peak price hours to basicly ofset their own energy costs and the need for huge investments in storage sites.
Things will drasticly change over the next 2 decades as cost of pv and storage keep going lower and lower.
Looks very interesting - THANK YOU 🌍🌎🌏 👍
Great video!
Could you do a short (and maybe a longer one) about the material graphics you showed?
Maybe a bit of a delve (possible pun) into material use of a wind turbine and a coal plant per MW electricity?
The Auto industry has to come up with a standardized size and connections,
where they can be easily removed and replaced.
Not like cell phones that have gone the opposite direction and turned into disposable items.
on a side note, god bless the EU for making it mandatory for phone manufacturers to use removable batteries in the following years
@@SirBalageG If only they kept with it in EVs
There are less than 10 common battery form factors.
CATL and BYD both make million mile, 10+ year batteries. When your car is scrapped, they will pull the still good battery out of it.
@@liam3284 If they don't burst into flames well b4 then. Don't buy Tofu Dreg Chinese products.
That graphic showing iron ore extraction and the relatively tiny amount of lithium extracted is go to data when I come across people who pretend to care about the "mining" of lithium
to be fair they are more thinking the byproducts of lithium mining are worse then iron ore mining.
That would be silly as they are not comparable.
@@catprog They really aren't.
Thanks.
I would like to hear more about the full picture broader strokes aspects of your thoughts on what “ our children and grand children need to ensure their safety and prosperity “. Consider it an attempt at an index of your other videos around what a sustainable future might look like. While I really appreciate the details I find there can be a brain sink in trying to keep the big picture aspects in focus while delving into the finer details of a single aspect. I think such a video might generate lots of comments for you as it would likely leave numerous cliff hangers where you leave out many details. (Possibly covered in other videos) It’s also possible you already made this video and I missed it.
Thanks for yet another really interesting and thought provoking video.
That good info I have a net metered system rated at 32Kw Ac that powers 6 homes. If prices continue to drop I will explore adding a large amount of Storage. To help support the grid peak loads.
I hear one other nice thing about lithium iron phosphate batteries, they perform better in cold weather.
Not in EVs on the market anyway. When they are cold, they don't accept charge well.
I'm not one to typically put out flattering statements to TH-camrs, I do every now and then. This is one of those times.
I'm REALLY glad you're going to be at that event because I really enjoy your presentation and I think you do a great job of removing as much bias as you possibly can (everyone has biases) and you're one of the few TH-camrs where I respect your OPINION, not just the videos or the data you present. I often put into a comment that I want to form my own opinions and I don't want to watch a person go on for a long time giving an opinion on some technology/product.
There's a couple people that make videos covering different technology where I feel that way, so you are one of two people who I really respect the opinions you give. Really, you make top notch videos and I enjoy watching them. Thanks for the work you do and can't wait to see the coverage of that event.
Thanks John. That's extremely kind feedback. Much appreciated :-)
Thanks for the review.
Take care of yourself.
Thanks, another thought provoking video 🙂 Do u (or anyone else in the comments) know if the Everything Electric show talks are published anywhere? All these talks sound good but unfortunately I won't be able to attend the show.
How safe are LFP batteries in cars and more importantly in homes for storing from solar PVs? Fire? Extinguishing fires, gases etc? Recycling - where/who/cost in $ and environmentally?
This would be a great video topic Dave, maybe with the guys from stop burning stuff 😊
LiFePo4 batteries in cars and home storage are a lot more safe then the current Li-ion batteries because of the electolytes used. There are videos available showing the difference between shorting a LiFePo4 battery and a Li-ion battery - the Li-ion battery bursts into flames and the other does not. But LiFePo4 are not practical for replacing American style cars - will work in China because of lowered expectations of a country that is still lower - middle income where the prosperous are wasting there money on real estate speculation. For home storage, the prices have to drop half again beyond these estimates for them to make sense in crippled situations like Hawaii or California. My experimental LiFePo4 battery, which cost $300 at the time and would now cost $239 on Amazon, has saved about $10 in electricity given grid prices. It only makes a little sense because the intent is to learn and to use it while camping.
Just to clarify LFP batteries are another form of lithium ion batteries
@@mteifke Yeah, but the market is pretty differentiated by chemistry and characteristics such as energy density and flammability.
Lithium seems to be a terrible option for home storage when weight/ energy density would be bottom on the list for something that doesn't move
Hi, just subscribed, I've been enjoying your videos as and when they've popped up in my recommended.
Thanks for subscribing. I really appreciate your support :-)
Helpful too, that JBG also gave us our beloved RAM memory!
Recently I was told that the greenhouse gases from the shipping industry way way way outweigh (40%?) the 8% that the light vehicle industry is producing.
Why are we missing this low hanging branch in favour of electrification of cars?
Not quite that high. I remember misreading that as well; while international cargo shipping does have a hefty toll it's not nearly 40%. Estimates range from 3% to 10%, but most recent estimates are toward the lower end of that range.
They still need to be addressed, along with other logistical systems that need to be decarbonized as much as possible, simply because every bit counts. However, personal transport like cars takes up one of the biggest portions of global carbon emissions.
I think that things like zoning reform and more robust public transit options like electric light rail are more impacful than EVs will be, but I still celebrate these advancements since the ability to store renewable energy produced will be vital towards transitioning. I hope lithium free batteries still advance though for such power grid needs, since allocating lithium to where it's absolutely needed rather than simply where it's preferred for current cost would be more beneficial in the long term imo.
You are correct. Light cars and trucks are not the problem. They are targeted because that affects you and thus makes you pay attention to the entire scare industry with so many claiming to know how to save us. Governments are not following the science but rather the well-known politics of overstating a problem and scaring the voters to retain or gain power.
I would really like to see sodium ion batteries move up in usage and be the main chemistry used. It is ideal for phevs and smaller EVs and for home generator batteries. That can free up lfp for the higher end, high power, longer range EVs.
I would love if they could figure out room temp sodium sulfur ion for a slightly better energy density compared to lithium phosphorus ion. Heck, I would love a little salt battery with a sodium chlorine chemisty.
Its not about changing out bloated gas guzzling SUVs for bloated electron guzzling battery cars. Like it or not, we have to change our way of life, and as usual the lower you are on the socio economic ladder, the more its going to affect you, and affect you first.
like it or not, that's never going to happen in a democracy
He says that, yes.
@Embassy_of_Jupiter had a look at what Europeans have done?
No thanks.
And if the "emergency" is not as dire as portrayed by the non-scientist media and politicians? That is increasingly a likely scenario and quality of life for most of humanity will drop dramatically. Except, of course, for those at the top who will continue to have everything they want, fly all the private jets, etc. Scaring the populace so they will vote for a "Savior" is how dozens of countries ended up in tyranny. The "scare" doesn't even have to be bad, just amped up so people want "something done". Beware the dictators who care only about themselves. This is why we should never shut down oil as an alternative.
Wishing all great success with the Everything Electric Show. For those of us that cannot afford the trip to London (nor leave a carbon footprint in the effort), is there a way to hear the speakers via a live stream or podcast (after the event)?
Thank you again for this great update. I will simplify a few bits and share them with my students during our upcoming Earth week.
This bodes really well for both EVs and energy-storage. The question is whether the dropping prices will be enough to save any of the highly distressed smaller BEV startups.
The problem for startups, is their competitors can also drop prices.
@@liam3284 Maybe, but they won't drop their black box lockouts. A car you can work on would put them way ahead of the competition.
@@robertsmith2956 I *would* like to see that. To be fair to the recent start-ups, it has been nearly impossible to successfully start a new car company for the last, what, 40 years? There's a tonne of incumbent advantage and, for that matter, probably also some incumbent cheating! (I can't prove anything, yet...)
It's not the cost of the batteries it's the hundreds of millions of dollars it takes to begin volume production of cars. Lucid and Rivian got there and have several billion in cash still left, and are struggling; Aptera, Arrival, Canoo, Einride, Mullen, Nikola, REE, and others I've forgotten simply don't have the money. Fisker tried to reduce the cash requirements by paying Magna International to build its Ocean BEV, yet it's also flirting with bankruptcy.
Tesla was a once in a century exception.
The problem with small producers is that they will just be packaging parts together from other manufacturers. We had that in the 50s and 60s as well. Lots of cottage car builders but they all disapeared as the big players vertically integrated and where able to leverage economies of scale and spread costs over huge amounts of units acros models and their brands.
This is not changing. Even tesla won't be able to compete in an environment where the big guys have shifted their economies of scale onto ev production and the supply chain has shifted to support ev production. Tesla will have to start gobling up small ev brands in order to grow their numbers or join GM or something to bennefit from their economies of scale. Otherwise ot will just suffer the same fate as all the other car manufacturers in history.
Tesla was able to coast along for over a decade without competition. That era is over now, it is going to bleed market share rapidly now going forward.
thanks for putting in the effort and making the CHOICE to Share,...
some of these "good News" segments
Much appreciated.
Thanks. Just bought the "Not the end..." audiobook...💪🏽
Good choice!
8:29 Food waste is a non-sensical metric. Traditional farming and distribution produces much less food waste, but it also produces much less food. The important metric is wasted potential. In that sense, traditional farming wastes a lot more, as most of the land is wasted by producing only a fraction of the food that it could (due to pests "wasting" a lot of the food, and plants "wasting" a lot of the incoming photons).
Also, note that most of the existing food waste is due to dumb regulations.
I've been thinking about getting a home battery for a while, wait for more price drop or not.. that is the question🤔
I learned if u can justify it, go ahead.
It is best to start using than wait on price drops or wait until you have a price point that is satisfactory.
Keep in mind u can't use it if you wait. Better to get some use and installed than wait and not get benefit.
With batteries, you can build the system up incrementally. Keep adding 'blocks' of batteries. I would take the approach and build my big home battery in 5 years span instead of all at once.
Mum did a government backed installation of PVs with & batteries.
The detail finishing of measurements took along time but up and running fast. The batteries make it more independent (from b/grid power outages and enjoyable IMO.
Fossil fuels prices are not to fall much at a guess and those new extra efficient PVs Dave told us of recently...
I wish there were more content creators on this subject like yourself. Reality is often less than rosy and I appreciate the added sense of skepticism you often include when covering the green industry. Also, the citations add credibility to your op-ed's.
Thank you. Much appreciated.
The recycling quip when talking about fossils vs mined metals (6:50) was pretty disingenuous but I personally wouldn't throw out the entire video's premise just because of this. It just shows the layers of complexity and idealization going on.
Please take good notes and let us all know the outcome of this fantastic energy show my hope lies in folks like you and at the show who are serious about getting real work done to make the planet a better place to live and live in peace.
I've recently looked at small lithium poly cells and found the prices have doubled or tripled compared with a year or so ago. However they're still fairly cheap from the chinese suppliers on aliexpress (though with long leadtimes). I think the problem is with increasing regulation in the postal services making it difficult to use Royal Mail and possibly air freight.
8:04 agreed, BUT, switching to EVs WILL solve volatile tailpipe gas pollution in towns and cities.
exactly, considering that vehicles is one if not THE biggest source of polution (air and actually also sound) in cities, it will have a massive impact beyond climate change.
It will indeed.
So how do you convert or even tackle the coal, ng and oil community with its resources? It always seems to me the reality is on their timeline.
By being diligent when choosing who to vote for in terms of regulating these GIANTS, funding renewable project (ofc, avoid scams) and in general keeping corporations in check with taxes, regulations and Unions!
Coal is already dying off, but that's largely because of natural gas. I think the transition away from natural gas could be excellently modeled off of Spain's current transition as they massively increased wind power.
And most important, by concious consumer choices.
I am excited about popular demand increasing enough to start tipping the balance. If Big Fossil Fuel wants to get left behind, so be it.
I imagine we'll see scary commercials with all sorts of exaggerated dangers with new batteries: toxicity, fires, etc.
Money is on their side. Science is on our side 😉
Love this show! Thank you
I truly wish the western way of disposable products goes away.
As a westerner, it is frustrating to buy a ‘thing’ and know that it is built to fall apart in a certain use time, so I will have to buy a new one.
I repair absolutely everything I can. But some things are just impossible to do so..
I haven’t seen any massive price reductions on home battery storage lately, why is that?
Because lower material cost does not need to lead to lower sale price. Higher margins make line go up and investors happy
Not true the price although still too high for most people still is starting to replace the antiquated use of lead acid batteries in remote off grid applications and also in battery backup systems are replacing gasoline and propane systems when paired with a minimal solar panel installation for emergency power
I suspect it's being reserved for EV cars, the price of batteries for cars seem to be a lot cheaper than the ones we can buy on the market, so unless you're going to buy a EV car, strip the batteries out and use them for your home, then we are kinda stuck for now, and that probably won't change much until supple outstrips demand.
Which is a shame, because if you could buy them for your home, it would be a lot cheaper now, but the problem would be that there wouldn't be enough supple which would end up pushing up the price, so until the EV market settles down and they can make enough supplies for them, it's likely going to be a slow thickly down effect on the home energy market, before becoming an avalanche, which could happen over the next decade or sooner.
Honestly, high battery storage and high cost of inverters and installation are what are very likely putting many of us off buying a solar setup, which is a shame because the actually solar panels are dirt cheap, but everything else around them are expensive.
because if you're a manufacturer you pocked the difference for as long as competition allows you, a lot of them can't keep up with demand anyway.
It depends what you mean by "massive". But a home battery would cost me today less than half what I paid 4 years ago!
Shop around!
You also have to keep in mind that most home-battery products are not just batteries! They often include inverter, management system, weather-proof casing, etc. So, yes, home batteries cost significantly more than just the manufacturing cost of the sole battery cells.
Another excellent bit of communication Dave.
Thank you :-)
Just subscribed. Great videos.
Always enjoyable educative and relevant, many thanks
Glad you enjoyed it
I need a cube of all the spent nuclear fuel of the world placed next to those resource cubes for a good comparison
too tiny
It would be a tiny tiny cube indeed!
Only the nuclear fuel is not the only resource required to make the generation of electricity possible, is it. So please stop attempting to sugar coat nuclear energy. There is nothing special about it, it has it's own particular set of pros and cons.
@@BrentonSmythesfieldsaye
Really, the infographic is an apples-to-oranges comparison, because rare-earth metals are not energy sources, they are energy storage. Where the energy they store comes from is determined by grid design and usage.
Put the 10-year projected amount of nuclear waste (which, having its own special hazards, is transmutable) against toxic waste from discarded solar panels, lithium-ion batteries, and non-servicable kinetic generarors, and that might be a meaningful discussion.
@@HuntingTarg That is quite the word salad. Bravo.
Amount of savings that will distill to customers: 0USD/kw.
BS
Love your work mate!
Just noting that within the extracted metals comparison cubes;
Iron ORE is shown, in all other metals, only the metal extracted / refinery processed for aluminum, is shown.
This is misleading.. Its the amount of ORE processed that is the prime factor for energy used/CO2 produced from mining.
I do hope that you will record those talks at the fully charged show and share them with us.
SMART people knew this was going to happen, and they invested into companies they felt they could trust but since many companies are in China, it kind of discourages different investors. But the companies OUTSIDE of China that have been doing battery R&D have had the support they need and the future looks very promising.
I'm especially happy to see the growth in Redox flow battery tech because that's perfect for most grid storage.
I wouldn't be that certain, the Chinese company who is the biggest in the world, bringing prices down this fast, I think eventually some other companies will go belly up, because they just can't keep up.
Hasn't Rio Tinto just closed their lithium mines dues to lack of demand and/or low prices? I think there will be a correction. I don't believe we will see a large drop in the cost, at least not in the short term.
People always quote DRC for cobalt, and wring their hands, whilst conveniently forget all the copper that is mined in the exact same country under the exact same conditions. Very selective “caring” all funded by big oil.
Probably copper can be sourced from other countries, while cobalt can't. But lifting them a tiny bit out of poverty by buying their exports probably improves their quality of life even amid the horrendous working conditions. It's not like they're mining against their will as far as I'm aware. It's probably still better than the alternative.
@@szaszm_ You’d better tell Australia, which has huge Cobalt mining operations.
@@Muppetkeeper I didn't know that. People talking about unethical Cobalt always mention the DRC, and never Australia. I'm not a mining industry expert.
@@szaszm_ that is not how it works, they are not working in horrendous conditions because they want to, its because they have no choice. and its not improving their quality of life by exporting the cobalt, all the money is going to the companies that own the mines, not the people working on it. also, there are plenty other cobalt mines around the world, congo just has the biggest reserves in the world by far.
@@danilooliveira6580 "They have no choice" from an economic perspective, because it pays best. They do have choice in the literal sense. No forced or slave labor is involved as far as I know.
I hope you will be have video (highlights or total) of your discussions at the Energy Show. Good to get latest from informed players.
Wasn't there a huge discovery of valuable ore in Scandinavia recently? Believe it was a massive 'field' of phosphorus.
phosphate '50 year supply' "The reserves, discovered in Norway, are equivalent to at least 70 billion tonnes. This is very close to the 71 billion tonnes of world reserves that we already knew about."
Sep23 Lithium America reported the largest Lithium find totally 20M to 40M metric tons found in the McDermott Caldera near the Nevada-Oregon border. Mining is scheduled to begin in 2026. Construction of the Thacker Pass mine began in Mar23 containing an estimated 13M metric tons.
I already bought a BYD SEAL U car with sodium-ion battery with a renault dealer.
reality in belgium
in his office were 0 contracts for a renault car ,1 contract for a dacia end already 4 contracts for a BYD!!!!! in the same day
The Seal definitely does not have a sodium ion battery. It's got a Blade LFP battery
Great video, but the energy density section could be improved, with energy density confused with specific energy aka gravimetric energy density, and a few other points.
l attended the Australian Everything Electric Show just recently . By far the most interesting part for me was the discussion sessions with the experts . l thoroughly recommend people taking the time to attend them.
ls there any chance that the sessions you're hosting could be broadcast at a later time on youtube for those of us in other countries ?
i'm sorry, but your graph doesn't show prices as falling of a cliff. Just continued progression along the exponential part of the decrease in cost of manufacture, but not where it will hit an asymptotic limit based on intrinsic cost of materials and the parts of manufacturing that aren't limited by learning. Also, the graph doesn't show where it needs to go to enable the milestones associated with interruptable penetration: 1) able to shift PV from mid-day through the entire night 2) able to provide PV storage for several days of cloudy weather 3) able to bridge a week long wind drought 4) able to bridge a two week long wind drought.
Excellent point and cuts through the hype that is so prevalent today.
@@randyscorner9434 Yeah, folks struggle with exponential growth models. Just because semiconductors continued on exponential growth for decades doesn't mean that physics won't assert itself sooner for other domains. Its like when you are looking at a pandemic and presuming that everyone is going to die of Ebola. What causes it to deviate from the growth model isn't at all predictable on the rate constants of the current growth.
Well in my opinion co2 is the smallest problem of all enviromental problems we have. but thats just my opinion..
I can respect that contrarianism in a way, compared to the militant often vitrioloic contrarianism that pervades the topic. At least you are up front and honest. Good for you.
Even so unfortunately, the best available facts from scientific research and the evidence it produces, say otherwise about our CO2 emissions. But I will leave it at that. Cheers.
Thanks. The continuing innovation in battery technology is astounding, and welcome. We won’t know ourselves in ten years.
Cheers Geoff
I wish I was in the UK to attend the Everything Electric show, I am from Calgary, Canada.
These panel discussions will introduce some solid technology to the world and I am hoping to get access to the papers that are presented or conclusions from the panel discussions.
The cost of batteries has plummeted because no one wants them. The sales of EV's has plummeted, it's simple supply and demand. No demand prices plummet.
We could also consider not breeding ourselves into oblivion.
stop buying useless sh!t
You've caught the right problem... Only 50 years late. Things have changed a bit ... Look around and read some data .. You might come to a different conclusion😁
We aren't "breeding ourselves into oblivion". The birth rates of the developed world are below replacement rates.
Love your channel. You gave tools to answer those saying “electric is worst!”
A problem is the speed of transition. Example from my own Sweden: there are a quite real problem with the lack of speed on building a charging infrastructure. And there are an even bigger problem about increasing the production of electricity to handle both industry demands and transport demands - and deliver the energy when and where it's needed.
normies with hope for the future when half the world doesn't even think there's a problem