Tesla's board and Elon Musk are 'all in' on Tony Seba's WILDEST prediction
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 เม.ย. 2024
- Tesla's board and Elon Musk are 'all in' on Tony Seba's WILDEST prediction
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I'm an old guy, 79, but I've been a gearhead for many years. Probably about 20 years ago Road and Track magazine reported on a prediction that a consortium of automotive industry forward think people made. They predicted that all cars would be self-driving, computers would make it so accidents would be almost unheard of, all cars would be electric and the bodies would be made out of some form of strong plastic that would be coated with a reflective material that would repel UV light. If you research it you could probably find it. It would be interesting to see how many of their predictions are coming true. 😃
Yeah, Reed, you are right, Tesla was first incorporated July 1st 2003 San Carlos california, 21 years ago.
This was not about Tesla it was long before they came along it might have been 40 years ago.
Thanks for your info. Unfortunately, OEMs have lost the race to Tesla, then becomes anti-BEV and anti- Autonomous driving.
Shhh! Don’t tell Wall Street, we still need to pick more shares, lol.
If I'm not wrong Ford might be the first to adopt Tesla FSD.
No way. Rather BYD
I heard Ford is in negotiations with Tesla to use Tesla's FSD when it becomes a reality at level 4 in the US, or it's a done deal.
@@stefanconstantinescu1576 Maybe BYD will use Tesla FSD in China but it's probably Ford in the US.
@@stefanconstantinescu1576Ford don't have an FSD option.
That’s why they’ll buy it from Tesla
We are in the midst of a industrial revolution and I think it's well needed.
lol keep dreaming
Phase transformation
Th Fourth
@@billybobbob3003the guy still pumping at the gas station. Happy they still provide free window wiper tools and fluid. What a value lol.
This suggests that if you buy a new EV now by the time it’s 10 years old you’ll be in the 5% who drive their own car. Suppose you buy an ICE car?
Exciting future!
!!!!!!!!!
Yeah, one more skill that human will loose. It literally devolution at this point. Granted most drivers are too focused looking at the screens than anything else anyway.
@@10secondsrule Pretty weak argument for preventing technological advancements.
Seba is right directionally. He's a bit too optimistic by about 5 years. Seems like autonomous driving will be at scale by 2035, not 2030.
Robotaxies are already a thing in Asia. Waymo has been operating in the US for years now although it's geo-fenced.
Seba will be right in five years or less
IBM stated that about six companies in the whole world would have a use for one of their commercial programmable computers. Disruption (exponential adoption) is not linear. If it suddenly works - it will catch on like wildfire because of the savings / profits to be had.
Waymo et Al will not be able to scale their self driving. They have no visual database and no way to compete with Tesla’s visual self driving.
You want to know something interesting, 10 years ago, I worked on Ford Kuga self driving. They had auto reverse parking working. But it was never used... To this day I don't know why. Ford still hasn't deployed this feature.
The problem with cars as a service is the same as public transport and car rental. The cars end up disgusting and shit in the end so you just buy your own car. This is why we have ownership of vehicles.
I have jumped in the EV bandwagon in the last 4 weeks. I originally thought EV would be a fad.My son bought a new M3 rwd and his frictionless sales process and amazing driving experience led to me placing an order.
I'm a huge tesla supporter. I don't support the idea of not having a personal vehicle anymore. I never hear anyone talk about the personal freedoms. Given to someone by owning their own car that a robotaxi could never fulfill ever ever ever.
That’s a very archaic way of thinking. I’m sure people felt the same way about horse ownership back in 1900.
The average miles driven in the US is around 12,500 miles. At $1/mile charged by robotaxi it would work out to around $1,050 per month in RoboTaxi fees, not including tax and other costs. I don’t believe that people will be giving up their personal cars for quite a while.
Also, the driving experience is, for many, is a big part of owning vehicles in the US. This will always be true and is part of the human experience despite some arrogant people thinking it’s archaic.
We already have 'Transport as a Service'. It is called public transport.
Also, the Viking is simply wrong when he says that Tesla is alone in pursuing 'fully autonomous vehicles' aka robotaxis. Tesla has lots of competitors in that field, e.g. Google, Baidu, Nvidia and others, and those competitors aren't obviously behind Tesla in their development efforts.
Seba is indeed a brilliant guy but unlike the Viking he isn't a Tesla shill.
There must be others like me who actually enjoy driving? Or, another scenario, I'm going backcountry camping for 5 days. Would "Traffic as a Service" send a vehicle that can carry us, our camping gear and a canoe to a national park 200 km away?
yes, that is the beauty of renting or car sharing,--you can have a vehicle suited to your trip, instead of driving a pickup truck or big van when a small short range car would do
I read an article a few years back that addressed this sort of scenario. An AV will drive its occupants while they entertain themselves, have sex, sleep to their destination. Hotels, motels will lose business while road safety will vastly improve allowing police forces to focus on investigating violent crimes rather than babysit drivers. Platooning will happen bc avs will talk to one another increasing efficiency, safety, and speed. The elderly and the handicapped will see their mobility increase.
Just drove on v12.3.6 for the first time today. I've been enrolled in the fsd program from the beginning. v12 is pretty impressive. I used to be hesitant to let the car perform ult or dual turns. Not anymore. I think the article's predictions will likely come true.
To answer your question, there will still be a minority of the population that will insist on operating their own vehicles in special circumstances - much like operating construction equipment on a job site - legal within the job site but illegal on the roads.
Good luck getting insurance for that trip and just General driving, human driving is flawed and 1.3 million die each year because of it. Insurance companies will make it impossible to insure if FSD works as it should. We all will just have to move with technology.
You can still drive.
@@gigga8948 not all drivers are equal
Pilots have the other end of the spectrum covered; tons of training/certification/licensing requirements.
Driver licenses could move in that direction to ensure driver skill and reliability and thus reduce insurance risk
We would probably give up one of our two cars once robotaxi is in service. Still want the freedom of ownership
This is clear to anyone that follows Seba, Tesla and Musk and gets the fundementals.
Seba is like gravity. Settled science.
Petroleum feedstock will still be needed by the petrochemical industry.
Some fossil fuels used in emergency mid winter is nothing.
Fully autonomous vehicles will be an accelerator of human progress. Think about the hours of a person’s life spent just focusing on driving, and now multiply that by the billions of people on planet Earth. Now that time can be spent in leisure or productive pursuits.
We also have to take into account the potential for the lessening of human suffering as less and less people die in accidents every year.
This also doesn’t take into account the productivity gains from being able to ship more products anywhere at a lower price than before.
Yeah na, most people already waste most of their tiime now. It will be great for netflix, youtube and pornhub...
Seems like you've never heard of public transit. its been around for a few years
@@bigblackron
Robo taxi's and diesel buses are different animals.
@@bigblackron I ride public transit all the time, but you can’t just relax and focus on other things. You are in a locked enclosure with other people, not only do you have to be aware of your surroundings, but you also have to be aware of where you’re headed or you’ll miss your stop. Plus, public transit doesn’t blanket everything. Autonomous vehicles will. I don’t know about you, but I don’t feel safe going to a mall, buying a whole bunch of things and then leaving on a bus. Do you?
@@bigblackronPublic transit. Good for you. I hope you enjoy it. 😜🥱🤢🤮
So if you live at the back of Bourke there is a good chance no autonomous vehicles are coming your way anytime soon.
Thank you.
You can make your own fuel with a few panels! Never be stuck in the donga!
Those of us who live "back of Bourke" don't hop in our cars to run out for a pizza or carton of milk. We plan ahead. Ordering a ride a half hour or so in advance would be no big deal.
If you take Tony Sebas technology adoption predictions he has a track record of being pretty well spot on. However, where he’s not so good is with when a certain technology will emerge. Autonomous driving vehicles is one prediction that so far Tony Seba has been far too early. He predicted level five vehicles in 2021. So far, we are still stuck at level two. This is all coming, however level five autonomy is still being worked out.
I think FSD 13 will be level 4. Hopefully that will be out in 1 or 2 years
Well, you arfe right about tony Seba, and the accuracy of his predictions. i have said for some time thaty people should have been paying far more attention to him all along. But one thing on this latest prediction about robotaxis: He said: "Within ten years of regulatory approval...." Ay there's the rub. We don't really know when regulatory approval will happen. And by "regulatory approval" he would have to mean full approvals at all levels of government in all jurisdictions for all applications. This will likely happen eventually, but can we say it is certain by 2030?
I'm starting to have my doubts about Tony Seba. Maybe he's right about the cost curves. This is for some technologies, like solar. Maybe batteries. (We can use a lot more decrease in batteries.). EV's haven't come down in cost, as much as I would've hoped. (Maybe China. But that's because they made the bet early, own a whole supply chain. But it's hard for me to see this elsewhere.).
As for renewables growing as the fastest pace, yes. But this doesn't mean fossil fuels are disappearing. One only just have to look at the data. It's still going strong. Rather than disruption, it seems like an addition. And with data centers, AI, manufacturing increasing, the need for all forms of energy will be increasing.
As for AI (which includes FSD), this tends to be overhyped (and underhyped). There are some fundamental limitations with today's AI (and what can be projected with the current technology). There are also some true disruptions for certain tasks. As for a viable business model for L4 self driving, I'm waiting to see how Waymo does. Also, how well Musk does in China.
Great commentary, Sam. Great lead in too.
You nailed it Sam. Tony Seba has been my "north star" since 2014 and his "Clean Disruption of Energy and Transport", and my realisation then that disruption prediction is a settled science. Musk has obviously long understood that as well, since he is following the exact path predicted by Seba. What Tony didn't realise back then, but he must be ecstatic about now, is that Elon Musk and Tesla would execute his predictions so brilliantly and aggressively.
Musk says robotaxis will get used 5X. If total usage remains the same then there will be 5X less cars. If the lower cost of travelling means we do more of it, then there is a range of scenarios. One possibility is that we double our travelling, in which case the number of cars we need reduces by 60%.
OSD Occasional Self Driving.
How will a robotaxi handle a rider who doesn't know the destination address & wants to direct the cab where to go.
Or doesn't speak english & has the address on a piece of papers
I drove taxis in Australia for 40 years & the above happensed often
You take your finger and point to a point on a map in the app. Tesla can handle multiple languages and is integrated with Google maps. You can even find the location on your Google maps app on your phone and then send it to the car. We regularly do this in our car. No words need to be spoken. As for changing the destination - simply cancel the current trip then submit the new destination. It's done all the time.
True but how many people don’t have a Smartphone now? In 20 years it will be virtually nobody and navigation will be totally digital map based and booked in advance on an app.
There is also Waymo, that is operating self-driving taxis.
People don't really grasp the huge implications of FSD. Most cars are parked 23 hours per day, and we use huge pieces of land to park those cars for all those hours, the entire transportation model we have is wasteful and stupid. And that's just the beginning. There are many many more things that will be changed by self driving cars. It will completely transform society. If you have a vehicle available to you anywhere within 3 minutes most people will have no need to own a car.
If you live in the country, or a small town, or even the less dense sort of suburb, there will not be a vehicle available within 3 minutes or anything like it.
@@BeerStein yes of course, it's not the same everywhere, but then people in those places don't have the traffic and pollution problems of the big cities, there are not universal problems or solutions. Solutions only apply to where the problems are. Noticed that I said "most people" not all.
Nice job
Speed sign recognition is an advertised function in my 2021 Tesla Model 3. Why can't I have it work properly as if it had FSD software?
Ray kurzweil made these predictions DECADES AGO
And it still hasn't happened yet
That last sentence is a killer 🔥
Couple things go with automation in vehicles that are in fleets like points cards and the like what you do say go how many stops how many in vehicle I would imagine crime going way down that alone also the amount of camera's on each and every vehicles motorcycle r v s hell I bet even shopping carts the list goes on and on.
10 year Lyft/Uber/Sidecar driver here. I deal with every day passengers daily who increasingly say they don’t have a car, sold it, or if they’re young, don’t even bother getting their permit/driver’s license anymore mainly so they don’t have to worry about DUI-(which have plummeted along with DUI deaths) , Lyft & Uber are too available and affordable (in comparison), e-bikes have increased-I’ve noticed a massive shift in the last 5 years especially, where now majority of my Lyft passengers, on any given day do not own a car or even a drivers license. Especially near colleges/high schools. With only a few of the older passengers being driven to the service center to pick up their car or vice versa and I take them home. Almost always this is a gas powered car that constantly needs maintenance apparently, and I almost always convince the person to go fully electric. 90% of these people are SHOCKED that EVs DONT require oil changes…
To people like us, from this perspective, Tony Seba‘s claims have seemed extremely believable for a few years now.
I don’t think I have ever seen anything about towing with FSD , is it even viable
There will always be a challenging use case if you dig down deep enough. What aren't all cars built to suit handicapped people? If it is important enough (and there is enough money to be made) - someone will figure it out.
I think the layoffs in the supercharger team is a sign that Elon is going all-in on the robotaxi vision. Robotaxis could utilize the existing supercharger network with far greater efficiency than human drivers. Elon is fulfilling his promise of "balls to the wall"
But there is no way to charge a robo-taxi at a SuperCharger without a human handling the cord. The charging "snake" they showed a decade ago would be a great solution and new wireless charging plates are reaching 90%+ efficiency, but to implement either solution you would need to expand the SuperCharger team, not eliminate them. I think eliminating the charging team is an indicator that they're going to make another false promise about self driving on August 8 with no way to make it work.
The car comes back to the service center to be recharged and then sent out again. Not a problem.
@@royphillips7644 A Model S takes 10 hours to re-charge on 240v. Its not likely that they'll have to fully re-charge often, but are we expecting that they'll only use 240v, keeping the taxi out of service for hours at a time, or will they use DCFC (Super Chargers) keeping the taxi's out of service for minutes at a time?
Development of the V4 is as far as it needs to go now. No need to improve on it. Installs will be just local 3rd party contractors. Manufacture is probably automated to a large degree and the market itself is going crazy. I have seen superchargers being built all over the place in the UK, particularly Fuel stations. Priming the pump is complete and I would not be surprised if this is spun off / sold.
Thinking about a movie “Wifelike” where humanoid robots are fully developed, but, they mention briefly in the story “self driving cars never became a success as people want to keep control”…
I love that Sam calls Tony Seba "Tiny". o/
I still cant see people selling there cars to use a ROBOTAXI ?
My first experience was in the Philippines. Seeming chaotic but the transportation works well. Ever since I have pined for not having to drive myself anyplace, instead just hopping on and passing my centavos forward to the driver. Today I do use Uber and Lyft. I look forward to never having to drive myself anywhere again.
You do you.. I'll be driving because I enjoy it.
@chasl3645 You do you too.
@@chasl3645still shifting gears, pressing clutch, upset manufacturers are now making electronic paddle shifters. Lol. Nostalgia is a bitch that always get Fed by advancement.
Now go find a workout for your right leg, because you are limping with hopes of shifting gears for the rest of your life with your left.
I'm all for self-driving tech, but the implications for this is that no one will own a car but rich people. You might think that is good, but you are essentially bound by the constraints of the system. If you have no money, or your social credit isn't high enough, then you do not get to ride.
"Traffic As A Service" - The Electric Viking
Autonomous RVs will shake things up a lot more than robot taxis.
It would be if AI were reliable.
3:40 EVs have almost caught up to ice cars in just 1/12 the time. At this rate they will far surpass ice in the next ten years if progress continues.
well said viking
It seems like Tesla should have a fleet of cars at all of its Tesla locations that it strictly uses for people to book time on simply to experience self-driving. Bring the family. Have them experience where this is - maybe start doing this in 6 months - no charge. Just let people experience it. As I have been watching videos of people recording this experience, as many of them say, once you experience this, it is addicting.
People say 'Yeah but I love driving'. I can see that on the open road to some extent, but the massive population fighting traffic every day, that is a HUGE stress. Once you experience the stressful commute with little stress because a computer drove you to work, why would you ever go back?
Tony has this challenge dialed in!
Let’s verify in 3, 5, 10 years from now!
I want BYD to Lisence Tesla FSD for their car.
BYD with Tesla FSD is the best combo.
2:19 this won’t work as well in the U.S. once cars became mainstream people spread out of cities. Thus creating our need for long range and tons of roads. The cost to hire transportation would still be high even without the driver.
Yeah, buses are great. They stop 15 times before you get to your destination, continuously loading and unloading people. Autonomous driving takes you where you want to go from point age to point B with no stopping
Well I’ve juts sold my Tesla shares . The risk seems too high .
Sound?
Hmmmm i have family in philippines . Long distance travel is a nightmare. For eg a bus from Davao to Surigao on Mindanao takes twelve sweaty hours.
Musk 'read Tony Seba's (2014) prediction'... and then started Tesla 12 YEARS EARLIER to 'accelerate the transition to sustainable energy'. Maybe Tesla's (2012 Model S) demonstration that electric vehicles are viable -- and superior -- was Tony Seba's logical starting point.
It all comes down to economics. Robotaxis will turn buying a new car on its head.
Tony Seba's is a good guy
I want my car, not a taxi to work
That’s how Transformers Robot 🤖 where created in a far fetched future from this point in time 😂😂😂
The thing is no one really knows. There are lots of predictions from 20 years that haven’t come true around tech and cars and lots that have. Saying that, it’s a very different landscape now than the turn of the century and will be again by 2040. I don’t see it within a decade but 20 years is probably feasible.
Yeah I still want to drive myself. Not a fan
And some people still like riding horses.
It didn’t slow down the spread of cars.
I like to drive myself, but not coming back from the pub or a very late night out... I'm getting FSD when I can afford it!
Nothing stopping you taking over when you want to - at least until there are no steering wheels, and cars are not sold to Joe Public anymore anyway. Perhaps there will be a vibrant market in "old car" weekend rentals.
When over 50 you will rethink
The autonomous dream dies the moment corporations realize the human eye and brain will not be replicated.
It cannot be replicated in order to antisipate the unpredictable. Everything is unpredictable. Sorry, it's dead before the concept is introduced.
So, Tesla is building a Robo-vehicle with mass transit construction?
About predictions, remember that they are hard to make, specially about the future !
Look for them on anything and you will always find someone who has made the right one but you will also find many who were mistaken.
Seba has been right every time.
I have been 100% correct on my predictions about the past
I vividly remember my own "disruption" moment - I saw Back to The Future Part 2 in 1989 and having seen huge flat screen TVs hanging on the wall I instantly thought "Nah - that's going to far, this is never gonna happen". All I had ever known were huge bulky Cathode Ray TVs. I wonder what happened to all of them? Landfill I guess. I suppose it will be VR next.
As for Mr. Seba - *BOOM!* - I was fascinated to learn that people always get disruptions wrong because our brains are hard wired to be linear and disruptions happen exponentially. This is why none of the financial forecast pundits ever see it coming. Their timelines are linear.
Another disruption I can think of is the Dyson bagless vacuum (the innovation being mostly the removal of a disposable collection bag). Just 30 years ago and now almost everything sold is "bagless". Broadband? In the UK it is hardly 20 years old but ubiquitous. Mobile broadband [4G] has been around maybe 10 years. Almost Everyone has it and everyone uses it. Boom!
I have A Dyson or two and an old US Kirby, huge advantages to having a bag that lasts for a long time, creates much better suction, emits more particles and I doesn't make a mess while inhaling dust and mites. Not certain the market won't catch on, after all, most products introduce "disposables" whatever these days.
@@seandelaney1700 😁
No wonder the Tesla supercharger staff have been fired. If transportation will become a service there will be far fewer vehicles built as those that are FSD will be used far more intensively.
In developed countries owning a car will be like owning a horse today, a hobby or just for nostalgic use by the wealthy. And, like horses on the UK roads today, considered a liability which many people would like to see banned.
It's really not a matter of whether anybody "is smarter." Rather it is the goals and the research and the due diligence and the teamwork that guide decision-making, predictions, and actions. Rethink X seems to be following a path very similar to Ray Kurzweil's, emphasizing the rates of change and the convergence of technologies. Lots of other "think-tanks" and research or business teams are doing this as well. In finance, Cathy Woods' Ark Investments seems to be doing the same. In batteries, there is CATL, LG Energy, etc.; in transportation, communication, and energy, there is Tesla and others; in space, there is SpaceX, Blue Origin, and others; in IT and AI, there are companies like Nvidia; in medicine, lab research is more slowly transferring into practice. Of course there is much doubt and push-back - a lot from governments and idealogies , but we certainly live in interesting times.
As a Tesla driver who uses FSD almost daily, I believe that it's going to be 2026 before you can get in the back seat and play while the car drives you around.
Possibly. More a regulation issue. But 2026 is soon enough to evaluate value
It's never happening, they've been promising that for over 10 years
I am sure, some kind of "full" autonomy will come very soon. But the prediction that this will lead to less cars is inmoarts mot correct. Tje reason for that is the rush hour. This will not change, and that is the reason why still.mamy cars will be needed. Maybe they can stretch with interesting price models a little bit the time slot, but mainly the rush will be there 😁
Certainly you make a good point mentioning "rush hours." People do like to communicate and to do stuff in the daytime. The Internet, telepresence, work-from-home, etc., ameliorate this somewhat, but people (especially children in schools) need social contacts. Personally, my best experiences combining all that with "transportation" have been associated with train and ship travel (but not packed in bus or airplane seats). Perhaps robo-taxis will be as comfortable and interesting and travel time more productive and rewarding - at minimum, as "fun" as it used to be when I was a small child playing in the back seats of cars or station wagons. 🙂 Perhaps a lot of quiet electric autonomous trucking can take place at night!
Once FSD becomes demonstrably safer than driving manually this will become unstoppable. Insurance companies will refuse to cover for accidents where FSD is available and disengaged. Premiums on non FSD vehicles will start to increase. I can see FSD being rapidly more adopted by public transport than private users.
Full self driving is very hard to achieve. Largely for two reasons. First, driving on US roads is like the wild west, human drivers do all kinds of stupid car tricks that cannot be predicted. Second, sitting in a car and letting it drive itself is uncanny, it feels like no one is at the wheel. That is scary. Musk would be wiser to invest his energy in developing humanoid robots.
Horse meat was cheap when the Ford model T production line started. 😊😊😊😊
Is there a SEBA ETF?
I assume that Seba's predictions were not about active behavior but about passive technology. They are totally different. All those who appreciate the independence and activity of freely driving when and where they want to, will not give up their cars. But the youngest generation without the same background and financial power would logically take the easy and cheaper road. So Seba will be proven wrong because of the date he put on his prediction. It may be generally true a decade or two later though. Still, the speed of it coming true will be greatly accelerated within major metropolitan areas compared to out in the countryside.
Eating my breakfast, nodding along in agreement until you quoted some guy saying that gravity was "settled science".
Look at some of the taxi's in this
I need to return this Honda Africa Twin in MADAGASCAR 🇲🇬.. FAST! [S7-E104]
Itchy Boots
2.29M
I’m sure a lot more people in the car business DO believe it, but are praying that their investors don’t at least until they can cash out their share options :-)
So what happens when they refuse to allow you to use this service because you've done something your overlords disapprove of? Just look at the trucker protests in Canada.
What about us country folk ?
That would be the 5%.
It basically amounts to huge profiteering by autonomous vehicle makers, as they build driverless taxis. Taxi drivers normally split the customer charge 50/50 with the company. Autonomous cars keep all of the money for the company.
No autonomous company is going to give 50% back to the customer just because they don't have a driver. It's blindly naive to think as such.
Yes, but the point is that the owner of the Robotaxi can way undersell the human piloted taxis by half and still make money. That would mean that soon human driven taxis would not be able to compete and would go out of business unless the taxi driver took a pay cut so huge that they would not likely survive long in the business. If you think the disruption due to Uber and Lyft was big, then the same market forces that drove that transition will cause an even greater disruption to their business pretty soon now.
I don’t think Elon was thinking about Toby Seba at all, I think he has always had the plan of making autonomous vehicles and he’s going all in now because he knows that FSD is now on the cusp of being better than humans
EVs selfplug-in when parked 23hrs daily means only trickle charging is needed. Selfplug-in V2G EVs.
EVs battery will be full daily.
The EV is not a ICE vehicle.
Nobody can top-up the ICE vehicles at home, or at the supermarket or
Throughout the day there are peak demand periods and periods of lower demand. Robos can cycle in during off-peak hours when not all units are needed for passengers.
NYC and LA taxis average about 200 miles per day. Do a charge up to 100% (LFP batteries) at night and a mid-morning or mid-afternoon topoff if needed.
I have a 5,000L above ground diesel tank on my property - its easy to fill up at home and means you can buy at the bottom of the market.
@@xraylife see ezi pezi, brilliant 👏 👌 everyone should do it.
@@xraylife
I have solar panels. They get filled up for free.
@@xraylifeI used to have a diesel tank, the diesel went off, and I had to bleed and flush the whole fuel system on my tractor
👍🏻
And which country is highly dependant on oil & gas sales? Russia.
This is the real reason they got aggressive. War -> oil & gas price goes up because there's more demand and usually less supply.
Russia is being disrupted.
The problem with saying things like "gravity is a fact. it's settled science." is that nothing ever is settled in science - and it's not the problem that gravity is but how we see and explain gravitational force...and we still explain it as bad as we explain all phenomena summarized under the term "force". That's why we are so bad in using gravitational force to our own advantage...which we barely do. We use it on only where we understand it primitively that rainwater getting back into a reservoir and falling down is pushing turbines.
This is quite true. And not simply semantics or pragmatics either. As for "gravity," hopefully one day, we will understand that much better and be able to manipulate it - 🙂 certainly anti-gravity would be a "ground-changing" phenomena.
In general I think making predictions based on economic value can be easier than consumers. 95% will never happen outside of cities. If I have to wait 20 minutes for my ride, I won't do it every day. The same guys who won't buy an EV because they might have to charge it at a super charger are the same people who will not go for autonomous cars.
It is true that people do like their own cars - to store personal stuff in; to go and stop here or there, no waits; to transport things like groceries, etc. Big reasons against robo-taxis (in less than heavily urban areas). However, waiting for a ride is something children do everyday with school buses or city buses or commuters in subways, etc. From home-to-work (or elsewhere) just schedule a daily pick-up time (with no worry about gas stations or charging, etc.) Might be different from work-to-home. Funny to think of 100's of robotaxis converging on a store or factory when shifts change. 🙂
Just because Tony got one thing right does not mean he is always right.
He has not gotten just one thing right, at all. That was the whole point. All his predictions regarding the price of solar panels, battery storage, etc. disruptive new technologies like microprocessors, have all been right, even ten and twelve years out ahead. And it is because he has discovered a mathematical formula that grounds economic forces in real world industrial growth rates that always proceed in a certain way.
His formula has proved correct whenever it has actually been used together with real world numbers tracking production and real world innovations.
So!! So in 20 years time nobody will want to own a car they won't have the need to.
Good point. I do not look forward to the day when owning a vehicle is too expensive to justify due to OEMs not having as high sales base/economies of scale. I could be wrong, but doing rideshare/robotaxi as your transport will probably be more expensive directly as a result of this too
Insurance effectively doubles the cost of private car ownership, so No.
If we have to we can take bicycles and walk or work on our fields. We dont need WEF.
Those fleets still need to be charged. So they better fix those superchargers up.
They Will have it Way before 2030 - Tesla Will be King
Transport as a service should be busses and trains.
Accompanied by robotaxies for the final mile. Many hate waiting for feeder busses that drops them off a few blocks from their house so they end up driving. Robotaxies that do milk runs from the train station to the office or home should improve public transportation uptake. Avs could do these milk runs all day and not break a sweat.
Imagine what our cities will look like if everybody can afford an electric car. This can’t be the aim!
People like their freedom. I don't see most people wanting to give up autonomy to ride around in taxis
People do like freedom but I see no downside in autonomy (which can be turned off or not used). People do ride around all the time in taxis, subways, busses, aircraft, boats, moving sidewalks - these actually enhance our freedom of action choices. Do you think the very rich, who can afford fancy cars driven by chauffeurs, feel like their "freedom" is compromised?
It is possible, I suppose, that some government might forbid personal driving in some area (like a city). Already aircraft are all subject to such rules. That might be considered by some a restriction on "freedom" - or by others, sensible public safety protections.
It just followed the trend of the time to make everything "as a Service". Given that the baby-boomers were to start retiring, I imagine that would have indicated that, down the road (sorry for that one 😁) fewer vehicles would be purchased for personal use. So yes, I can see how someone would have connected the dots and come up with those predictions.
Cars drive themselves, no one making money driving cars. AI/automation/robotics does everything else for us. No one makes money doing anything anymore.
Who pays for the transportation as a service when it shows up? No one has income, because no one is working anymore.
I'm confused
Thry have absolutely NOT negotiated a deal for fsd licensing YET. WHY DO YOU SAY SUCH A THING. they are in talks and may sign a deal possibly later this year! Huge difference
I hope FSD will come to fruition. I doubt it’ll take over the automotive market anytime soon. Neither Msuk or Seba are stupid but the latter is earnest.
Where do charging stations fit in all of this?
They don't. That's why I suspect Elmo has cut 90% of the supercharger staff.
Will a robo taxi be able to carry a man & his wife , 3 children, 5 surfboards, tent , 2 weeks food up the beach at low tide to Double Island Point (Australia) camping area.
There is no power up there at all.
No of course not
The future? What other predictions are there?
Some look at Tony Seba and see a GOAT.