Nassim Nicholas Taleb at ICCS 2018

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Real World Risk Institute, NYU Tandon School of Engineering) provided a plenary talk for the Ninth International Conference on Complex Systems on July 25th, 2018. The title of the talk was “Time Probability."
For more information, go to: necsi.edu/events/iccs2018/

[@Senecamarcus]

You only value Taleb and his insights if:
1. You deal with people
2. You deal in markets
3. You deal in mathematics
Most people argue against his ideas because they are stuck at their mother’s basement where they read 5000 books but then they don’t:
Go out to test ideas learned from those 5000 books on people, in markets and mathematics.
Rather they sit at mom’s basement and argue how NNT is wrong.
As a great philosopher once said, a tree that falls makes more noise than a forest that grows.
People in future will look back and understand how far ahead NNT was ahead of everyone else.
He is one of the best thinkers of our time that understands the 3-4-5 order consequences of all the BS that others are trying to do.

[@johnanderson2654]

Fire the audio engineer. Oh, I forgot. He has no skin in the game.

[@immersionmusic]

Make a loudspeaker membrane from his skin

[@immersionmusic]

There are a thousand ways to skin an audio engineer

[@artist9356]

Awesome, lol, best comment

[@PhuketMyMac]

for some reasons, most of Nicholas Taleb lectures or interviews have a terrible audio. So either the same audio engineer follows him or his voice does not work well with microphones.

[@hedialaya3230]

Taleb is my intellectual hero.

[@imadmoujahid3431]

glad that we live in the same era with him.

[@siddharthkale7502]

Taleb is the real OG

[@hsujack8808]

Thank you for sharing.

[@SpaceExplorer]

LINDY GANG

[@GiulianoCiolacu]

"some idiots, am, sorry" made my day

[@kevtherev8194]

He seems to have sth important to communicate, but can't say it

[@pstarszyk]

13:50 - but if all of humanity crossed the street at the same time, there would be nobody driving :P

[@martinjohnson5498]

Autonomous vehicle.

[@martinjohnson5498]

Which would be kind of poetic.

[@Senecamarcus]

@@martinjohnson5498 not really. In fact if you think about it we will probably have more j-walking coz people will think now cars wont hit us anyways.

[@martinjohnson5498]

@@Senecamarcus I was only saying, a jocular response to a jocular comment, that all of humanity could cross the street at the same time if no person had to be driving the vehicles.

[@D.o.l.l.a.r.s]

🥴

[@q44444q]

I really wish Taleb would stick to technical topics. I feel like he is always trying to speak to the least technically informed person in the room, and it can be really hard to follow the technical rationale for the ideas because they're obscured by metaphors, analogies, and stories (and in some cases rambling). I'd love to just see a sequence of lectures on "The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails" and how they map to his claims. His answers to the audience's questions are also kind of unhelpful and metaphorical. I like stochastic optimal control a lot, and I think it's the right framework for addressing control of fat-tailed systems. Taleb seems to agree on that. But he says it doesn't rely on prediction (or seems to imply this claim). But a stochastic optimal control algorithm does, to me, seem to implicitly make predictions, as it has an underlying set of assumptions which it uses to model the system, in order to compute the optimal control. So it's rather contradictory and confusing.
That said I strongly agree with his overall message. It's just that I'm at the point where I reaaaallllyyy need the technical details to proceed further. And I don't have time to read the massive number of papers he writes.

[@Senecamarcus]

Man that’s like going to university and telling your professor that hey prof I know this course takes 12 months to finish can you help me finish it in 12 minutes? He will kick u in the face. If you dont have time to read his papers then first find time, man today do nothing but complain.

[@Senecamarcus]

But i do agree with u that NNT spends too much time trying to explain his ideas to stupid people who dont understand it or appreciate it

[@Maceta444]

He released the first volume lf.the "Technical Incerto Series", it is available online and called "Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails". He will likely release the second part next year.

[@khalidalbarwani4339]

Say Hi, if you coming from stat 235 :)

[@patrickmccormack4318]

0:00 Image of Nassim Nicholas Taleb seems smug. Modesty can be sincere. After two days' research over risk taking, the title Black Swan could be titled Crazy Loon. To: Mr. Taleb, Where's the map?
"Always remember folks, you heard it first from Charlie..." - Charlie Frost 2012

[@robertdale001]

Patrick McCormack have you read his essays?

[@diegootalora3503]

He is saying a lot of lies and defending through bad shaped arguments.