Nassim Taleb: Small is Beautiful - but Also Less Fragile
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 17 ธ.ค. 2014
- We use fragility theory to show the effect of size and response to uncertainty, how distributed decision-making creates more apparent volatility, but ensures long term survival of a system. Simply, economies of scale are more than offset by stochastic diseconomies from shocks and there is such a thing as a “sweet spot” in optimal size. We show how city-states fare better than large states, how mice and small species are more robust than elephants, and how the canton mechanism can potentially solve Near Eastern problems.
This talk was part of "Cities and Development: Urban Determinants of Success" - the NYU Development Research Institute's 2014 Conference, hosted jointly with the Marron Institute of Urban Management. The conference touched on the role of cities in the development process.
This man is the unitary definition of what the liberal arts was supposed to be.
That was well put
@@lamiatunes thanks
deep truth
No doubt Nassim will one day recognized as one of humanity's/civilization's greatest thinkers. I wish our leaders would listen.
I could spend years just listening to Nassim. He is the moving bullet that economists can’t see!
He is the Black Swan among the White Swans 😂
10:35 - Organic vs engineered. Organic communicate with environment with stressors only.
12:09 - Organic material need Variability in environment to get better. Complex system success depends on failing early and rapidly.
12:28 - You don't improve by planning but by experimentation. Convex experimentation.
part of his lecture reminds me of Socrates' Golden Mean; *relatively* small, is beautiful; effectiveness per unit is at its peak when you find a balance between extremes, and I suppose a city-state is at that golden mean
The political unit of a city state makes sense for balanced accountability and efficiency. Or a federation of city states, like the Swiss cantonal system.
I love Taleb. I feel he can abstract his thoughts a little make them digestible he would be the modern equivalent to an Claude Shanon
Aha! Very glad to see William Easterly introducing Nassim!
I did not watch the video but I saw Taleb and clicked like. Great guy!
NNT is awesome!
This is basically entropy explained with phonomenon!
Good shit
Love it.
i like the mouse and elephant analogy
I wonder what the building across the street looked like...
نسيم! حبيب الشعب!
How does he clear his mind to think this all through?
in subtractive ways. he's been better at eliminating things having low values, fragility. things mean ideas also.
post traumatic growth: aka enlightenment :)
that's not enlightenment!
This guy has tremendous ideas to communicate but he's always in a hurry to explain and skims through them fast and furious with technical jargon that is hard to grasp. His stuff though are enlightening to say the least.
Mo A he said he does it that way so it will force people to listen more carefully and pay attention and that later they will go do further research. He is just out of this world, he can argue and make a point about anything. In fact, he argues to procrastinate is okay it’s part of being human, he also argues its okay not to have rules in life. I love his ideas but sometimes Nassim just argues for sake of arguing even if he knows something is right. I guess he likes this antifragility idea everywhere!
Mo A but i agree with u that the language be so easy so others can understand. Thats why clowns on YT r more popular than Nassim!
@@Senecamarcus Kale Mussel - Yes, you're right, but his ideas are kind of 'original' and only he can explain them if he had the patience. Apparently he writes the same way he talks them so no luck there. Yet he is worth listening to, though torturous at times.
Mo A it’s challenging but yes he’s got a lot of great ideas that just makes you go hmmmm how come I didnt think of it or notice it before. If you find his work challenging then I suggest u read Seneca - Letters to the Stoic or Epictetus. Nassim ideas are basically in simple terms be stoic.
Where u take small pain for bigger upside and being ready for volatile life out there.
Examples:
Fasting - if u r used to eating less even with food shortage you will do good and wont freak out like others
Stocks - take small losses but have cheap dotm puts so u r hedged and profit from chaos
Emotions - get into stressful situations so that if u r faced with stressful life stresses u dont break down
Sleeping - sleep less so if one day u have a kid n u have to stay up late or wake up early wont bother u
Driving - get into traffic or places where traffic moves so slow so that when u r faced with it u dont stress urself.
I have many many other ideas but I shared some with u
@@Senecamarcus - oh...okay; I get it. Now, That's the language I understand - thank you! What you explained here is in layman terms, but he seems to introduce a Technical Science out of an old philosophy. I will look into Seneca letters too - Thanks a lot.
What was his point about protein consumption?
There's some evidence that calorie restricted and low protein diets (esp. lowered branched-chain amino acids) may extend lifespan and delay age-related diseases. I think his point is don't do three squares a day. That's a population-centric feedlot diet. As an individual, mix in some fasting, mix in some vegan, mix in some high BCAA feasting.
Predators get food randomly. Ruminants like cows and sheep get food consistently. If you eat like a predator, it is much healthier to do it without a schedule. Avoid eating three meals a day of meat. Try once a week, or every three days, or whatever. Any sort of randomized meat intake is better than consistent daily intake of meat.
Who wants to buy 2018 Puts after this ;)
lol pretty close m8
2 years too early haha
51:33 "meta-reason"
Also Apple bought a patent that allowed tablets to be able to type just as fast as normal keyboards : (.
Give Nassim points for his haircut. For a bald guy, he got it right. On the other hand, the guy who introduced Nassim does not get it. Why do people think that you can make up for a bald spot by long hair?
gute Frage.
curious wether Mr. Taleb has is aware of Christopher Alexander Architect Planner mathmatician's work.his critic of nature, Jacobs top down are consistent with Timeless way of building.]
2:27 - THUNK
@34:xx NNT was off by ~2 years
Position sizing in fancy terms. Trading is least intellectual activity.
Nothing more than in books.
Here is a podcast we did on NN Taleb recently. Worth checking out: th-cam.com/video/6KiLxIN0rlk/w-d-xo.html
New technology replaces old technology, car replaces cart pulled by horses. Today are few city states, Singapore,Monaco, San Marino and Vatican. City state is not s viable model.
New tech doesn't always replace old tech, and new tech isn't necessarily always better than older tech...
I feel like I’m watching Hari Seldon
Schumacher?
What is he saying @ 10:45 ? "If you go in the sun it will over-shoot thinking there's going to be more sun tomorrow it will darken" Brain thinks and skin will darken? What?
skin does not communicate with the brain about the stress of sunlight. It just darkens when exposed to sunlight, as if it is anticipating more sunlight
@@lesterroberts1628 Thank You - I understand it now.
No flash
So was Benoit Mandelbrot, your 'Ghu_ru' high on LSD tablets while Imagining, a mandelbrot set. Y iss equal to c+2
34:00 only 2 years out on his prediction
Nassim should say "tea cup" instead of "coffee cup" when speaking in terms of fragility. When I think of coffee cups, I think robust. They are generally more dense, larger, dense and cylindrical, big and insulated. The fragility I see with a coffee cup is the handle, that can easily be repaired with super glue.
"Tea cups" on the other hand are dainty, thin, delicate, and if dropped would shatter like an egg. Tea cups gain robustness through grace and value. If a stranger came to your house and you offered him a "coffee cup" or a tenth generation heirloom "tea cup" valued at $5,000 by itself, etc. The cup you'll choose would be based on the *value of the trust.*
A sermon in a tea cup!
Extremely poor audio.. And this is developed country. Odd, that developed countries can't put a reasonably better sound quality everytime...
such a baby. no flash I beg you..
His speaking and writing style seems to be that of connected and sequential aphorisms rather than rational logical deduction and progression. This is not how human knowledge evolves. That's why he has never taught us anything useful or effective.
Have you?
@@furlockfurli2719 Yes. Lots.
'this is not human knowledge evolves.' can u elaborate on how does it evolve?
@@furlockfurli2719 This guy Bedson, who's himself a quack (reference: www.fierceautie.com/2020/08/quack-exposed-john-bedson.html?m=1) is throwing mud at NN Taleb. Irony just died a thousand deaths😂.
You're clearly an idiot. He writes for the "general" audience. If you want real technical works than see his technical book or his published scientific literature.
this guy is like Ayn Rand - he is only capable of ugly thought.