Nassim Nicholas Taleb - The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 พ.ค. 2024
- Nassim Nicholas Taleb, expert on risk and randomness, discusses "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," presented by Harvard Book Store. Nassim Nicholas Taleb defines a "black swan" as a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. Black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. How can this phenomenon be better recognized and understood? This lecture contains strong language.
More lectures at forum-network.org.
This talk was taped on May 19, 2010.
![Nassim Taleb: How Things Gain from Disorder [Entire Talk]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/B2-QCv-hChY/mqdefault.jpg)
![Nassim Taleb: How Things Gain from Disorder [Entire Talk]](/img/tr.png)
This guy is just so marvelous. He is a remedy against the modern world.
I’m listening July 2020, and we’re exactly the situation he was talking about 7 years ago.
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This man has such an interesting view on things. It's mind blowing what he tells in all his speeches and books.
Bom 8
@@carlosfernando8768 wdym
Maestro seems well rested. I wish I read his books 10 years ago.🙏
True. I think the same. I wish I knew about him 10 years ago.
@@Senecamarcus Same here
*_Fat Tony has a saying, "It's easier to scam people of billions then to scam them of thousands. It's a lot easier to fool the multitude than to fool a single person."_*
Great Speech!
The video is from May 2010.
2:40 the funny thing with Taleb is he always experiences issues with technology while explaining antifragility
In stanford lecture he spilled water on macbook, now he is getting major mic feedback :D
Good lecture. He seemed so pompous at the beginning, but after the first few minutes, became much more charming. What's the deal with that?
truly amazing=]
I agree he does ramble abit, still has some good ideas
Starts at 1:25
I like the gaffer's tape on the microphone. It's an anti-fragile material.
More complex equals more fragile ....interesting point but stands to reason.
One ox + one wooden plough equals robust. hmm
Risk: I choose the top line .....(but have a bolt hole for what is sure to come!)
lol he said wtf wow he is my true mentor~!
great person,deep insight of market,must master his ideas to be successful
dr satish
Did he mention Fat Tony at 25:08?
resonance is funny i like it
If Taleb does not want individuals to pay for the miscalculations of "too big to fall" business, why did Clinton scrap the distinction between investment and savings Banks in the first place?
Secondly, why do households borrow, and why did credit proliferate in the 1980s?
Doesn't it have to do with income distribution in the economy?
It's absolutely amazing how often the "experts" are dead ass wrong.
"I can not hedge risk of epidemics" 45:43 - Hello Corona Virus, can you hear me ?
Starts at @1:24
Black Swan = Breaking or end of a commonly accepted belief
e.g. when the earth is flat - the sun rotates around the earth- type of beliefs are shattered.
Most said word goes to "shmucks"!
I thought it was my tinnitus getting worst.
do you have
audio extremely low.
That's his general demeanor; at least in his books. Very ireverant, prone to criticize others ect. it get's annoying at times but has value.
May 2021
Taleb begins at 1:25
Such an compelling talk ruined by the numpty who set up the audio. A real struggle to concentrate on what’s being said.
every one of his jokes fell flat…i started feeling bad for him…i cant learn from people i feel bad for
No need to let the internet know you are an idiot, nobody care
Rules of memetical nature
I thought this man wrote the script of the Black Swan movie
i'm such a dumbass
That mic sound is driving me crazy
Did they set up for a speech or a Latin American singer.
The video is 12 years old old tech back then
doesnt make much sense. If you need to apply the live cycle or a corporation to human life.
Think Jimi Hendrix is going up
Mozart is stable
Black swan also applies to technology
3:45 sure professor taleb by the same logic lets return to the bronze age so we can avoid the majority of black swans
Jesus what troll are you, can’t even hide it
ok emotional Impact = blackswan events = too much noobs in the market = iam out of the game.
Taleb often boasts about himself and mocks others, but besides that tiresome insecurity, Taleb offers some gems of wisdom, albeit inefficiently so. Still, Taleb relies too heavily upon pomp and ironically enough, his own antidotes when critiquing antidotes.
thanks for saying it, haven't seen another person mention this...
I have been known to read an entire book to get a few paragraphs of real wisdom, but this was unbearable.
is it me or does he just rabble
its just you.
Rewatching this as California electrical power monopoly goes into blackout
29:48 44:57 47:53 ops, hahhaha,,,,,
lol So basically he said cnbc hosts are donkeys! lol
haha
I guess we know who's the schmuck here!
I started to read "Black Swan" and couldn't stand it to finish it. Now I hear him talking it's even worst. He has interesting theories that I agreed with but how can you trust a judgment of such a person?! It's all clouded with anger, hate and jealousy. He is no less ignorant than all the people who he accuse of being so. What a miserable human being! I feel sorry for him.
you seem kinda jelly..
His speech is so disorganized and full with "stuff like that" and "that stuff"' . Very disappointing for someone with a Ph.D. and what is so smart about his ideas? They are not robust themselves
there is a full chapter in the Black Swan that talks about a mindset reflected by your comment, you are illustrating it perfectly.
@@Deepskies1 lol
You really have had to spent your whole professional life inside a university to go on a world stage with a hair like that!
if hes lecturing and he cant abstain to pronounce the f. word, then he' dont have any name, hes a nobody, and will stay a nobody, that also means that he has no respect for the audience or for himself either, ergo, a paria, nobody., , no matter how many books he writes. i made my opinions more..... robust, to stand the test of time and avoid black swans like taleb lecture in today's events
Methods for Portfolio Robustness are at 41:30