What Do the Numbers Say About Realignment? | Big 12 | ACC | Jeff Fuller
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 20 ส.ค. 2024
- Jeff Fuller joins us to discuss what the data may suggest about realignment. We discuss Sportico data and what it may tell us about realignment. It gets a bit wonky at about 5:30, but then we delve more into realignment at 20:00. So, feel free to skip ahead if you like :)
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Great conversation!!! The one thing that I disagree with when people say there isn’t the money for more than 4 schools (ND, UNC, FSU, & Clemson) forget the Oregon & Washington joined the B1G for partial shares and they did it EAGERLY…
In a world where UNC, ND, FSU, & Clemson leave the ACC for greener ($$$) pastures, if the B1G calls Cal, Stanford, Miami, Duke, UVA, & GT to tell them that they have 4 add’l spots in the conference but for only 40% shares for the balance of the media contract, that 4 of these 6 schools wouldn’t rush to take that offer? 40% of the projected $100M the B1G schools are projected to make in the next 6years is still more than they would make in the ACC…
That's true, but that 40% is still coming directly out of their pockets in the mean time until the next TV contract.
@@saturdayswarriorbyu, I don't disagree with you, but picking up (as an example) Stanford, Miami, UVa, & Duke (I know I'm omitting GT in this case) for the cost of one & a half the cost of UNC is also good "value shopping" to add the SF-Northern Cal, Virginia, South Florida, & 1/3rd on the fan base in North Carolina.
I personally think this is the way that the B1G & SEC will fill out the rest of their ranks to grow their conferences and absorb most of the remaining large schools in the ACC & Big XII. And yes, I said Big XII. There isn't one team among ASU, UofA, Utah, BYU, Colorado, KU, K-State, Baylor, Texas Tech, UWV, & Iowa State that wouldn't run Yormark over with a moving truck (figuratively of course) on the way to the SEC or Big Ten.
The thing that makes Big XII fans feel like they're in a strong position is the hope that neither the Big Ten or SEC want to go past 20 teams. The moment that one or both of those conferences indicate that they believe that they can make more money for each school off of TV contracts at 24, 26, 28, 30, or 32 teams than they can make at 20 or 16, they will & they will add more teams. Adding 4 more lucrative TV markets on top of adding 2 of the 4 most desirable media properties in the ACC (ND, FSU, Clemson, & UNC), particularly at the price of just 3.5 teams, sounds like it could make a lot of money to me...
@@saturdayswarriorbyu, I also think that temporary partial shares is how the SEC will likely add Va Tech (or UVa) & Louisville in the short term and ASU or UofA, OSU, Baylor &/or Texas Tech, and perhaps one other team. I also think that the Big Ten years from now looks at adding Arizona, Utah (maybe BYU as well), Colorado, & KU using a similar method of partial shares.
The disparity of school revenue between the B1G/SEC and Big XII/ACC is about to be so large that 40% of $100M over 3-7 years until a new contract will still be a better deal than 100% of Big XII/ACC revenue over that same period. IMHO, I believe that we are on the path of a "Fox Sports" conference & an "ESPN" conference and we're on that path because the bottom half of the SEC & Big Ten are trying to keep their top teams happy enough that the top 8-10 teams in those conferences don't go off & create "college football Super League/Formula 1" with unlimited spending and a single massive contract that leaves the other half of those conference members out in the cold.
And adding a few additional teams (w/ strong media markets) to hand out a few additional wins to the top teams along with adding a few "great" teams is a good balance to keep these two conferences together for a little while longer. I'm not saying that I like what's happening but this is what we're going to get as long as we fund college sports with unregulated capitalism...
Yes, any team would join either of those two conferences for the money and, maybe even more so, for fear of being left behind. And it is a bummer that it's going this way. Depending on how big they get, but I really don't see BYU getting into either conference. They don't really fit the MO.
Big12 is only relevant to the Big12…. Nobody will be rushing to the TV to watch the other tier 2 conference. ACC will probably have a stronger conference even after FSU and Clemson leave.
The ACC doesn't have a stronger conference now with those two schools.
@@saturdayswarriorbyu Keep dreaming fan boy
@@saturdayswarriorbyu You lose all credibility with such a comment. It's delusional and arrogant to believe that a fully depleted and backfilled BIG12 is even close to peer with the relatively intact ACC.
From top to bottom, the Big 12 is a much deeper conference, which to me makes for much better viewing than a couple good teams beating up on bad to decent teams. Maybe no one outside of the Big 12 cares (not sure that's completely relevant to your point), but I live in ACC country, and it feels like barely anyone cares about the ACC hear. I see just as many WVU and Michigan fan support as I do for local teams.
And the two conferences by most metrics are pretty comparable, so to say I lose all credibility is a bit silly. And for the record EA Sports agrees with me.
@@saturdayswarriorbyu Again, delusional and arrogant...
a) The current ACC is far better athletically than the new BIG12. Over the past 25 years, 5 football nattys to none. ACC is better in men's hoops even after the BIG12 peak years. BIG12 non-revenue sports are a joke compared to the ACC and the other P4s.
b) Academically, the BIG12 is not even in the same universe as the ACC.
c) The new BIG12 has no upper right members.
"Better viewing" is subjective.
Look, I get it. BYU has wanted to get into the top tier for a long time, but there are reasons why it lingered outside. It only made it to the P5 when the BIG12 was desperate and had to add dilutive members ~and~ when the P5 world was ending. BYU will likely be better off at the new Tier 2 level than it was outside of the now dying P5, but that's likely its ceiling.
Good job
Thank you.
Thanks, very informative. Attendance is UNDERRATED. In order to attend football games, I was required to make a substantial donation to the building of my school's soccer stadium. And then when I wanted a second round of football tickets for my family, I was required to donate to the construction of an academic facility for all student-athletes. I found both of those facilities worthy of investment, so I donated. I rarely watch my team on television as since 1967, I have attended college football games (the only way a true fan watches), where the game is repeatedly interrupted by 15 minute TV timeouts (BORING!). Please don't say that they are only 2 minutes and 45 seconds in length, as I usually take a nap during those God forsaken time periods. (Sometimes, I go to the restroom, then to concessions, and then to the beer stand, and arrive back in my seat during this time.) Plus, I pay the university to park, and I'm sure that the University gets a healthy slice of my concession/beer money. Not only that, but I also buy university merchandise, sold by the university as opposed to the cheap knock-off stuff that the cheap-skates who watch TV purchase.
Has it occurred to you that I despise television with every fiber of my being? People always accuse me of being so subtle!
So yeah, ignore people like me who actually attend games. Go ahead, make my day! Do you feel lucky?
One final word. TV actually does value people like me. Look up the TV rating for last year's Notre Dame at Louisville game. Then watch a replay/highlights of the game. The place was rocking. The TV people know that people watching games prefer to watch games where the crowds are large and loud, as opposed to games where there are few fans and they are rarely heard. (The Lord knows that TV people are many things, but dumb, they aren't.)
That's interesting about the requirement to donate in order to purchase tickets. I hadn't heard of that before. I imagine those were seas tickets?
Wolfpack backpack!
I can't see any conference wanting both of them at this point with as big as the conferences are already.
@@saturdayswarriorbyu Wanting and accepting are different things. The ACC didn't want CUSE & BC ~but~ accepted to get MIAMI.
Miami joined before either of those schools. Miami followed VT there.
@@saturdayswarriorbyu You clearly don't know this history. MIAMI demanded CUSE/BC and that was the original planned +3. The VA Governor intervened, forcing UVA to only approve if VATECH was included. CUSE/BC were bumped that round. BC was added soon after. CUSE had to wait, and PITT was the +1 to stay even.
So what you're saying is Miami joined first. Got it.
Again, the 8 BIG12 remainders had a home, a rebuilt BIG12. Why would 2nd Tier ACC flight risks move to the already Tier 2 BIG12 when a rebuilt Tier 2 ACC would be perceived as better?
There will be no peer P3. The BIG12 won't be some lessor but easily acceptable P3.
Exactly… I think the Big12 thinks more of themselves than they realize. Nobody is watching Big12 games on the eastern side of the country and that’s a lot of eyeballs..
The question is based on a false premise. If the Big 12 and ACC are roughly the same now, they certainly won't be after losing their top two football brands. The Big 12 at this point knows where it stands, it's the ACC that sounds a lot like the Pac-12 did.
@@saturdayswarriorbyu "If the Big 12 and ACC are roughly the same now...."
They aren't roughly the same now. The ACC is far better.
a) No new BIG12 school has won a football natty in over 25 years.
b) Measured by the Final Four, the new BIG12 is only #3 after its peak years run.
c) The new BIG12 is the worst in overall sports.
d) The new BIG12 has the lowest media value per tea,
e) The new BIG12 is the worst academic association.
f) The new BIG12 has no prestigious. influential upper right members.
@tarheel7406 Remind me... Which ACC school was sanctioned for 'academic fraud' in 2012 by the NCAA which led to firing of their HC (Butch David) and the resignation of their AD?
Also, I would like to know if you were even born the last time UNC football won a conference championship?
I don't normally stick-up for a BYU fan but I've talked with you before and you are a total dipshit. Maybe I'm just sticking up for the Utes new conference. Hilarious.
It's pretty bad when you can get a Ute defend not only BYU but the Big 12 too. 🤣
The B12 is the "God Conference" with Cincinnati, Baylor, TCU, Houston, Ks, K St, and Texas Tech. All that is left is ND, Penn, and SMU. lol
Don't forget BC.
If utah actually goes to the acc they gone lose a lot of respect and fans. Who ever even suggested that should be fired on the spot.
I don't buy it at all. I don't see how it makes sense on any level.
@@saturdayswarriorbyu it makes no sense at all but sounds like theres some dumb foos up top to even suggest that
@@saturdayswarriorbyu I doubt the ACC has any current interest, but it could make sense from the UTAH perspective.
It's been put to bed by Utah. They could've joined the ACC last year but didn't. Don't think it's gotten more appealing.
@@saturdayswarriorbyu good bet. Acc is trash
It's funny listening to some of these "experts" on College Football Realignment. Throughout TH-cam, every team discussed seems like "they will be a great pick up for the Big 10." If everyone was such a great pick up, there wouldn't be a P2. Their conferences would exist. I understand folks need content to talk about, but at this point, only a very few extraordinary programs will get into the P2. Everybody else devalues those leagues.
True that most won't get in. It really depends on how big they want to get. But also, about half of the teams in the super 2 devalue them. So, schools with better brands than those schools rightfully feel they should be included. Which is one reason why consolidation is ruining the sport.
BIG12 fans generally can't see from the perspectives of the other conferences.
Is that another metric you have?
@@saturdayswarriorbyu Addressed to me? I referenced no metric in this thread.
"Left behind"? In this context, the new BIG12 has already been left behind. Where is the self-awareness? The relevant question is how should the left behind P5 remainders best reorganize.
K-mart left everybody behind also!! Wake up things can be so different in ten years.
In some ways yes, but they are still part of the same division and subdivision in football. They're also an A4 conference.
@@saturdayswarriorbyu I'm using your term. There will be no peer P3. The BIG12 isn't some lessor but more acceptable 'home" than a reasonably rebuilt ACC.
Why would it be better to be left behind in the BIG12?
What happens if Notre Dame joined the Big 12 with... North Carolina...Duke.. Virginia? Yormark inks a deal with Amazon. Would your perception change? If the money was the same? A much better option for all four teams.
@@lyndalolson3067 "What happens if Notre Dame joined the Big 12 with... North Carolina...Duke.. Virginia? '
Hell freezes over? ND would have joined the ACC over that option. UNC and the rest would be better off staying in the ACC.
Wrong!!! The current ACC is better in academics than the Big 10.
Are you defining academics in student achievements or in grant money?
@@powell4661 Grant money does not equate to academic reputation nor rank.
Based on what metrics? I'm actually asking. I see both conferences pretty similarly in terms of academics.
@@saturdayswarriorbyu The ACC and B1G are similar, and I consider peer in academics. The ACC is generally better on average ranking while the B1G has more AAU members and does more research.
I constantly reference the graph at the ~11-minute mark in the vid titled:
"Big 12 Expansion Stats and Facts Breakdown | Conference Realignment | Tony Altimore x 365 Sports"