Why The Fed’s Next Move May Shock Markets | Jeff Christian
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 เม.ย. 2024
- Jeff Christian, Managing Partner of CPM Group, discusses the future of monetary policy.
*This video was recorded on March 19, 2024
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0:00 - Intro
1:00 - Central bank policies
10:15 - Oil
16:58 - Safe haven assets
23:50 - Real interest rate
26:20 - Central bank buying of gold
41:33 - Silver
51:08 - CPM Group
#stocks #investing #economy
I really saw the potential of the stock market by reading Berkshire's annual letters. I recently sold my $674k apartment in the Bel Air area and I'm hoping to throw it into the stock market. I just don't want to lose everything.
Most people either do not understand the power of compound interest, or are just impatient. For the average Joe, however, I think it is just best to invest in the S&P 500, and just wait, which is reliable, albeit extremely long- lots of years. Or just use a professional analyst and speed up wealth creation. Most people underestimate the power of the latter.
True. Having the right financial planner is invaluable. My portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 90% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, though this could take till Q3 2024.
I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
Melissa Maureen Ward is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
They should raise interest rates 1/8% to let all the dreamers out there know that interest rates will not be going down. Savers & seniors will earn some interest now, for a change.
We live in a debtors world. Your right savers have suffered long enough, but debtors who spend selfishly will always prevail.
LOL, do you really think the government will punish themselves and cut back on spending?? High interest rates hurt the biggest debtors and that is the government. It doesn't matter how responsible you are with your $ bc the govt is wasteful and you are left holding the tab.
1/8% .... dream on
This market rally was powered by optimism that the Federal Reserve is done with hiking interest rates. The question now is, where do we go from here? Are we seeing a cycle of long term gains until Q2 2024? let’s say one decide to throw In $150k?
You see in the stock market, momentum begets momentum that can work in the bulls' favor. I think investors who are wary of changing market trends should seek out bear mkt directions from certified strategists.
I believe navigating the upward market cycle can be made easier by consulting an expert who understands market direction. In early 2020, during the pandemic, my portfolio suffered a significant loss. However, after seeking advice from a financial advisor, I've now gained over $650k in ROI from subsequent investments, thats the value of expert counsel.
I believe navigating the upward market cycle can be made easier by consulting an expert who understands market direction. In early 2020, during the pandemic, my portfolio suffered a significant loss. However, after seeking advice from a financial advisor, I've now gained over $650k in ROI from subsequent investments, thats the value of expert counsel.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfOlio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay finan-cially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1 million in returns on invest-ments.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
There seems to be skepticism amongst investors regarding the Fed's plan as for me, I find myself at a crossroads, uncertain whether to invest $150k into my stock portfolio. I'm seeking advice on the best strategy to capitalize on this current market.
Most people either do not understand the power of compound interest, or are just impatient. For the average Joe, however, I think it is just best to invest in the S&P 500, and just wait, which is reliable, albeit extremely long- lots of years. Or just use a professional analyst and speed up wealth creation. Most people underestimate the power of the latter.
True. Having the right financial planner is invaluable. My portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 90% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, though this could take till Q3 2024.
I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name
Eileenruthsparks .. that's it
Dude said “the FED is independent” 😂 sorry but can’t him seriously now
he's a shill
They are independent from govs I thought. But you mean they not independent from NWO?
Well did you catch the inflection in his voice?
The Political Reserve hasn't been independent since the GFC
I laughed at that part too 😆 smh
Raise rates is the exact thing that needs to happen !
Great guest! Invite him back pls.
Good interview. I agree with many of Jeff's points. I am thinking higher for longer and with possible surprise interest rate increases.
I really believe US has real inflation 10%. And inflation is probably rising and out of control.
Especially with persistent $3.5T annual deficits.
This will increase Gold, Silver and many other commodities and inflation persists.
The fed cannot possibly care about inflation. They saw it and lied to us and called it transitory. They are now talking about CUTTING RATES. the fed loves inflation. Our govt loves Inflation. The people who run the world love inflation. The fed hasn't even been trying to get Inflation down, the fed is doing just enough so we don't riot
People who say inflation isn’t that high are out of touch or are simply not paying attention. Prices of stuff is dramatically more expensive since pre-covid and yeah maybe the rate of increase has slowed but that doesn’t matter you’re still at a higher than normal % increase of a number that is 2x what it was a couple years ago. It’s the compounding effect and it’s not hurting people who are well off like this guest, and even myself tbh, but the majority of people definitely are still feeling the effects. Another spike of inflation and people will be hurting real bad.
I think inflation is still very dangerous until the last leg has been digested more.
Tell that to a major grocery store chain that tonight marked down all ribeye beef 50%.
50 Years of experience. Thanks for sharing
Jeff needs to give you David a recent pic for your thumbnails… this picture was taken when we still had the gold standard🤭
☠️☠️☠️
I thought this was a dating match channel
Does Mr Christian not think there is any problem with commercial real estate and banks? Or that it doesn't matter?
He says there are political plus debt and derivative instrument problems everywhere.
Rates need to go up! 7% target, 10% ideally
Would have been great to dig down a little deeper on the point Jeff was making on the Agricolture supply chain... Said that, interesting talk as always! Bring him back!
Love your previous hairstyle
Does anybody else skip through the preview in the very beginning so as not to see a spoiler for what the guest is going to say?
I hope they raise rates and punish the real estate speculators.
Have you always had a sadistic nature?
I've done my own shopping my whole life and it is expensive right now. low quality junk is very expensive. can't even find a decent head of lettuce. going out for dinner? Jesus.eggs are up again.
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Michelle Stewart.
Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families in United States, she's a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United states..
You trade with Michelle Stewart too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much
Thanks David cheers from Vancouver Island
Which part?..
Lantzville here
Pivetta is pitching for the Red Sox today.
Inflation is so high nowadays I'm avoiding too much hair cut too...twice a year is enough 🙏
Bernanke gave free haircut more than twice a year. 🤣🤣
I can't see how they can lower rates while the gold inflation barometer is rising.
Gold rising has nothing to do with inflation. China is the biggest buyer currently and they're dealing with deflation. Gold is rising because the dollar is losing safe haven status.
@@prolific1518 China got deflation because everyone knows the Chinese economy is going to hell and that 2024 is the best year for the coming 10-20y ahead.
So everyone tries to save money which causes the deflation. So if you mean Chinas currency would be the new safe haven your wrong. If that's not what you meant then tell me what currency is taking over instead of Usd
With markets tumbling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly-which means more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $125k bond/stocck portfolio
An uptick in volatility is not necessarily a bad thing, there are opportunities to be found even in this whirlwind. Best advice just get yourself a coach to guide you in this current market
Yeah, financial advisors could make a lot of difference, particularly in a market such as this. Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are a lot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look. I have been using an FA since 2019, and I return at least $121k ROI, and this does not include capital gain.
Mind if I ask you to recommend how to reach this particular coach you using their service? Seems you've figured it all out unlike the rest of us.
Vivian Carol Gioia is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.
Maybe update Jeff’s photo. I thought you were interviewing his son
Funny all I hear is that Central Banks are buying Gold. Investment in gold in the USA and probably Europe is at an all time low. Someone is buying gold to keep the price at $2,225 currently.
Hair dye for the win.
To use govt numbers for inflation in this conversation is misleading. We still have negative interest rates
Great channel, great interviews👏👏👏
his lips are moving. you know what that means
Hi David, please ask Jeff next time this question: in 1980 gold went to around 800 dollar and silver to 50 dollars, in 2008 gold went to approximately 1900 dollars and silver to 50 dollars. Now estimates in the upcoming 5/10 years are gold to go 5000 till 20000 or so. Why you keep expecting silver to go to 50 dollars and then go back down again?
Good question. It's because everyone is expecting the economy to soften first and a sell off to occur in the market. When that happens, the value of a dollar spikes, which means silver goes down. Gold could sell too, but people tend to hold onto gold, and even if it drops, it will get baught back up. Look at charts of silver and gold before and during past recessions. There's always a rise in silver and gold and then a sell off. The real problem after this happens is going to be government spending. When the economy softens, the government will start dumping money into the system to keep it afloat. The spending is going to be enormous, I expect the government debt to double in the next ten years, which is what the current spending pace is BTW. 1 TRILLION every hundred days (This is stagflation) This is going to flood the economy with new dollars, causing the value of a dollar to plummet and gold and silver to skyrocket. This is why they say gold only "stores value". It stores its value compared to declining fiat currencies. Your home doesn't appreciate in value, the value of a dollar has declined. All commodities prices will rise. Oil, copper, food, water.... silver being used way more today in industry, electronics, microchips, electric cars, and factor in speculative buyers and I wouldn't be surprised to see 500 dollar silver in the coming decade.
David where do you find these blokes. Geez
You're embarrassing yourself and you don't even know it. I pity you.
Dudes got a crazy hair do
the hair aint fooling a one of us
who cares
If you watch a lot of his interviews, you'll realize that he does get haircuts - just not very often.
"Fed not lowering rates until something broken." So the dot plot is really a guess of when something will break?
He is all over nowadays.
Very informative
How can the economy be strong when the local governments can't even pay anybody? Houston is 160 million in debt.
Excellent interview, thank you for sharing.
People often overlook the necessity for the mining industry to decarbonize its operations to align with the new regulations outlined in the AGENDA 2030 sustainable development goals. Having worked in the cargo shipping industry and maritime law, I've witnessed the implementation of various measures such as ballast water treatment, gas scrubbers, EEDI/EEXI, EPL, and underwater acoustic reduction systems to meet these guidelines. While I'm uncertain about the specific steps mining should take to follow a similar path, it's evident that the price of iron ore has been declining since its peak in 2021. China, seeking alternatives to Australian iron ore due to sustainability concerns, faces challenges in obtaining green steel certification for its products. Additionally, Mexico, a major silver producer, is considering banning open-pit mining. Concurrently, the oil and gas industry is also transitioning towards decarbonization efforts, leading to dwindling oil reserves and higher prices. The industry cites low returns on investment and diminishing cost-effectiveness as factors contributing to this shift.
At 46:44 In the 50s "As the silver demand rose, it's price rose"
so WHY did silver demand rose?
Could it be oh, maybe...the printing of money?
Great interview. Deficit 6.5% gdp is surprise me and with amount money spending, inflation has more fuel ever
5:00 'the FED's job since 1913 is to fiddle interest rates'? The bond market (short and long) sets interest rates. The FED can diverge from that at its (our) own risk. TheFED would have you believe they are in charge, when all they can do is react, albeit after the fact.
In a logical world they would not drop rates. What about the debt? Thats why they will be lowering not to be kind to the average consumer.
Jeff is the most reasonable person when it comes to gold and silver. He has also been the most accurate.
Do you concur?
Nope
The reason for lowering interest rates is simple. Interest on fiscal debt is due and rates need to be lowered to meet payment obligations. Rates WILL be lowered!
This bloke has made it his business to understand the flows within the markets for metals as well as the flows to and from these markets. This enabled him to point out the fallacy in David's statement about the PRC's gold purchases.
I've come around to JC's style as well as to his forecasts.
Hair vs. Hair
Silver will all be mined in 500 years. You can own it physically or own stock in a mining company that owns land that has silver in it. It really doesn't matter what form you buy it in. That quantity that is on Earth will only go down. As silver gets harder to mine because the easy silver has already been mined, costs go up which means price goes up.
We'll run out of oil much sooner
I totally agree with you and please do include the ESG sustainable goals that mining company needs to fullfiled in the next years. China is already dumpimg Australia because it's not sustainable any longer and can't deliver Green steel..
Silver only goes down on earth if you put it on rockets and send it to outer space. All the silver on earth that is used in manufacturing applications can be recycled at a later date. When commercial fusion energy arrives, silver will be recycled at little to no cost.
From the middle of the interview and out David Lin's body language and quick moves to new questions/topics give me the impression that he is somewhat annoyed/surprised with Christian's correcting him regarding the numbers and data on which he bases his questions.
SILVERPRICE??? Why do the silver mining companies accept a silver price of ~25 $ ?? I would not sell my precious stuff to anybody for that redicolous price. 50 bucks for silver in the 80s, and 40years later the price sits at 25 $. That is total BS. JP Morgan fuck’s uss all!!! By setting the price only paper!!!!
Miners mine to sell their product at a profit... Not to hoard and speculate on price.
$50 in 1980 is $190 now!
You're sucked in by the silver pumpers. Wake up! 70% of all silver comes out of the ground as a byproduct. It basically comes out for free and gets put on to the market. Market sets the price via supply/demand like any other commodity. Even the primary silver producers mines at less than $15 an oz on average. Margins are good.
I suspect FED will hold or cut. Even split. BOC on the other hand is in an entirely different situation. High debt, low productivity , inflated home prices with majority of renewals coming up in 24-24. Nope Canada is much much worse off then US and the CDN will suffer. Consumer in USA much stronger having locked in with 30 years mortgages, Entirely different story here with 5 year renewals.
Most of what you described about the Chinese economy also applies to the U.S. Although, U.S. mortgages may have fixed rates, overall housing expenses are rising. In addition, the jobs and income needed to pay those mortgages are susceptible to economic shocks (e.g. tight lending).
Fed follows the 2 year. 2 year says rate cuts are next.
Lowering interest rates will not impact the economy where it can be seen in the metrics right away anymore than raising interest rates, which takes 12 to 18 months to be felt economy-wide. It will bump up the stock market if it hasn't started crashing and gold/stocks for sure.
I tell you what the “impetus” is to lower interest rates regardless how well the economy does is that it costs over a trillion dollars a year just to service the debt, that’s unsustainable, that in itself is enough reason to cut rates
Whats the basis for recession end of this year?
All the predictions have been wrong.
So whats the basis for not being wrong this time.
David, would please interview David Hunter the contrarian sometime soon?
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd
“The Fed is independent.” Yeah I stopped listening after that. Delusional.
The FED is very pro Wall Street and has helped widen the income inequality gap for years now and that includes Chairman Powell. I watch what Powell does and not what he says. They help kick the can down the road along just like about everyone in the Washington establishment does. The rich get richer and more controlling as the working class and middle class suffers.
In a way, it's true. The Fed is independent... but the government is controlled by the Fed. 😂
I’m a pretty satisfied gold bug 😊
I like the guest’s Marie Antoinette era haircut.
Woodstock era ☮
Gotta match David's hair length of going long on stock market.
❤❤😊
Commodities are becoming scarce. We are entering a new era.
3% interest rate my ass. It’s in reality well over 10% real interest per year on nearly all products. This guy is crazy.
Its cute the way Jeff thinks the Federal Reserve is independent.
Even David is laughing at him.😅
Trust me, when government debt hits $40 trillion, the Fed is cutting rates, regardless of what inflation is.
Fed lowers iunterest rates if economy remains good because feds need lower interest expense.
TapLike &Comment 4AIgos
The real question is will they cut interest rates for Biden re-election? That is the only reason we would have a interest rate cut.
"Gold in China stays in China" - Jeff Christian 29:29 You are not bullish enough
Jeff is my #1 guest, thanks for the interview
“ Fed is independent “ turned off. David, I know you are looking for varied opinions, but do better.
I wonder who does his hair?
Germany and much of Europe is in recession as deindustrialization is taking place and Jeff Christian is talking about the more resilient oil and natural gas markets as if Russian gas through highly profitable and expensive Chinese and Indian middlemen are no longer a real problem for European businesses and consumers. NG supplies are tight and NG costs 4X the price it did prior to the Western Sanctions being imposed. What world is Christian living in?
Other than this U.S. and Western nation inflation risks are still a great big coin toss especially with poor BLS stats and mostly poor inflation gauges that are always looking backwards The FED with it'd "data dependence" is reactive to events versus being proactive.
I think I get used about Jeff comments, he love it kill the wet dreams of silver and gold stackers. I can already see his sadomasochistic smirk in his face. I don't know who's behind him, but I think that repeating the same things over and over again means that he's learned them by heart! Evidently forgetting about 5000 years of history
of gold and silver. It is not for nothing that the French call money silver, the name of the dollar comes from thaller which means silver, go figure it out 😂
Really who does he think he's kidding ??😮
Dude is rational and measured - good interview.
Just point FED stopped too early on raising they should of raised to 6.25% the economy be exactly where it is but in long run mortgages would edge up
8-9 slow things down
Zero
Rates
Wera wrong policy and we have yet to
Pay for them
Deep State Jeff 🤤
Yes he is, but that's why we should listen to him. His calls are much more accurate than the other guests on this and similar shows.
Jeff is too honest about gold has any indication relating to geopolitical events influencing it and how. Perhaps getting an interview with him just talking about gold will be more insightful.
The fed is independent? Based on what evidence.
Fed should be independent?
I wish Fed is independent?
I wish the Fed didn't exist. We need a free market in interest rates.
The Fed IS independent... but everyone else is dependent on the Fed. 🙄
WHEN INTEREST RATE'S WERE HIGHER LAZ YEAR ? GOLD WAZ A LOT CHEAPER ? NOW INTEREST RATE'S ARE LOWER ? GOLD IZ MORE EXPENSIVE ???? 🥇 BY THE WAY GOLD 🥇 IZ 2,233 NOW ???
This guy 😂😂😂😂
Absolutely agree with Jeff's assessment
It’s already $2300 already
lots of speculation, very little in actual Fact.
Jeff was a good contrarian guest. Some of his points were really different from what the majority of people I listen to say.
This guy is wrong.
Jeff is always wrong, better off reading tea leaves for advice on market direction.
Best for him to get a crystal ball. 🤣
At 26:00
Ahem it's at $2234.00
Completely wrong analysis on Russia, oil and gas. For one the West used oil and gas as a weapon by refusing to buy Russian oil and gas. As a result Germany is suffering serious economic consequences - energy is more expensive, German companies are either going out of business or relocating. Germany is now in recession. There is no shortage, Germany is just paying more to get energy from other sources.
More Jeff bull...
13:19 erm hello, people will pay the oil prices because it's a necessity to drive...
Jeffy and J Poww sittin in a tree…
Good choice of interviewee. Jeff knows his sh**
A dude refused to call it a Special Military Operarion means he cannot understand clearly geopolitcs.
Only came here to say, WTF is that picture. Use an up to date picture of the guy
If the picture request is from him. Sorry you get the hate but own your choices and be yourself.
Biggest BS ever from Jeff about Central banks' "diversification into gold" .... Jeff the USD value has been devalued through unlimited "printing" compared to gold which is holding its value ever since USD was no longer backed by gold.
Didnt the fed just say they will cut basically no matter what? Lol not that they are telling the truth but still how wild is that
Jeff Christian.... hahaha! Reading his disinfo operation script we see.
Jeffrey once again downplaying the silver demand, he's just another paid mouthpiece in the precious metals manipulation machine. People can't really be taking him serious right? 😅