Great video as always fellas. I’m one of those guys that’s held a lot more cash that I wanted to for the last couple of years. Every time I watch you two I want to pick up the phone, sign up with Lance and wire him my cash.
Great Session and Advice. I only own one Cannabis stock in YOURF. With all the Fed tightening, I would not get into any cannabis stock that has lots of debt to service, since banking access has not been legalized. YOURF is profitable already and has the lowest 'SP to Revenue ratio' of all in the sector. SP looks to be turning around now.
Yes I have been holding out for the pump coming from the end of the war. I will be selling into that pump because all the other macro headwinds remain.
I'm still in the market though. But I know market is high up its own FOMO farts, and not really "pricing in" the bad stuff. That's why I'm heavy in gold miners and some value stonks.
Adam, I love this channel because you have a knack for keenly articulating my own financial and market concerns, as in this video. I'm grateful for the connections to New Harbor (I became a client last year), and Lance---learning a lot along the way. Please keep up the great work and thanks for all you and the greater team do!
I don't know if 2018-2019 had this much fear in the market because now we have the Fed having to tighten until something breaks due to inflation. Europe is probably already in a recession. Just like the bulls say, this time IS different and I'm saying that as a bear. All I see is some very short term trading opportunities but gotta be crazy to be an investor here if you're not a trader.
Rather have cheaper homes and higher rates, then higher priced homes and cheaper rates any day. Cause I believe in making a big enough down payment that it doesn't matter. I can't make a big enough down payment to matter, when homes are so expensive. Yeah, I might have a lower payment, but it will take me forever to pay off the home so screw that.
Plus you can always refinance to a lower rate! If you buy an overpriced house, you are stuck with paying that principal off, whereas the interest for your loan, is in a way “negotiable” through time.
What bonds have been performing well this week is he talking about? I don't see any. This guy is a big bond guy, watch out. Money isn't leaving the market. Look at the defensive stocks and look at the money going into inverse funds vs. volume going into TLT. Money not coming out of stocks and going into bonds if they ever will. Probably gold more like it than bonds. Fed policies haven't only screwed up equities but bond buying as well. Bonds continue to be in a bear market as well.
If Lance shows up next week with a straw hat, a mouthful of “snuff”, and an Old Farmers Almanac in hand, and opines about whether the “rain is gonna effect the rhubarb”- I’m gonna lose it!
Of course it's a bear market, bear squeeze right now, because the institutions don't want cheap prices to short against. They want prices to go up so they do a bear squeeze to move prices up so they can short again at higher prices. The shorts are also taking profits right now, while taking advantage of the buy on the dip crowd. If you think like an institution and you know there are a ton of buy on the dip traders, why would you short down here, and why not take advantage of the buy on the dip crowd by taking some profits to entice the buy on the dip crowd and conning them into thinking the short covering rally is the bottom.
I agree that it isn't the time to run away from the market if you are an active trader, which most people watching this are, but for some of my accounts that are managed funds, like the account I share that my parents set up for me, where I have to actually set down with a broker work out what bundled investments I want or something like a 401k rapid response to events isn't possible. That is sorta where I'm at right now. I haven't moved everything out on accounts I actively control, but on accounts where I can't rapidly respond to the market I've been making moves out because it is better to lose a bit of upside now and get out in front of what is coming while there is time than wait as late as possible and risk getting clotheslined by the market.
I just wanted to say that I respect your Wealthion Podcasts and channel is one of the best podcast I follow. You guys do great work you’re greatly appreciated. I heard you guys ask for other people to bring on his guests Can someone I think would be great for your channel is Steven Van Metre the bond king.
What a great video! This is just so informative. I loved the analogy of the pile of wood with gasoline all over it....just waiting for a match. ...."and we're here right now"
Can the exogenous event precede the inversion of the yield curve ? An exogenous event like Russia invading Ukraine putting Europe almost definitely in a deep recession ?
Lance was spot on with the cannabis sector. The problem in Canada is oversupply, low margins, and really spotty and confusing legal structure. I recently bought SNDL, because of their market leading position and net cash flows for the first time coming up. Everyone else in the sector is bleeding cash. Terrible sector overall, but like the man said, those who survive will be big as many go bankrupt and the market consolidates.
Dont you expect exactly oposit market movement after Russia-Ukrajinian peace ? For US custommers and companies will nothing change, sanctions and limited oil supply will remain !
On a day when gold was down the gold miners had a good rally. This is very bullish. The gold miners generally lead the gold price in movement, which might seem counterintuitive but just compare the charts. Various currencies are experiencing high volatility. The smart money is already moving to gold stocks. Don’t be left behind.
I have never participated in a TH-cam video conference. How do I join the event. Will I receive an email invite? if not what do I do to join? Thanks, PS this is indeed a great Chanel on TH-cam (Wealthion), and I have watched almost every show for the last 9 months of so.
Thanks again guys, great info .. and ... decent jokes :). One potential question for your Q&A session: How do Lance and/or the new Harbour pros choose stop loss limits?
And if they answer this, I hope they can answer how to plan your stop loss as to avoid a wash sale. If things happen so quickly, say you buy a stock, put a stop loss on it, but the stop loss happens within that time frame of a wash sale, now you can’t claim the loss on taxes. What’s the strategy?
@@JRP026 I believe you're misunderstanding what a wash sale is. A wash sale is when you sell a security for a loss then purchase that same security or a substantially identical one within 30 days. Which of course is moronic but that's government for ya 🙄
When discussing the state of the US Markets & the outlook for the 2-4 weeks ahead, I think more and more nowadays, that that discussions cannot be had without considering options positioning, and especially the key Options Expiration dates each month. The Options game, and the money flows that those options and their related dealer hedging flows create, have become so big nowadays that they have now become the tail that wags the dog. Market volatility (up & down) is amplified around monthly & quarterly Expiration dates. It's no random coincidence that the Market made significant moves around the monthly Expiration Date in Jan 2022 (21 Jan), Feb 2022 (18 Feb), and March 2022 (18 March). There's a tendency for Market commentary to look for exogenous reasons for the Market's moves around those dates, when in actuality the size & depth of those moves are more a reflection of the amplifying impact of options expiration & dealer hedging flows into that Options Expiration date. The April Options Expiration date is 15 April.
I have a suggestion: Please post these on Rumble at the same time so we don't have to come over to Sh*tTube to see this excellent analysis before Monday.
Lance Robert's is my favorite guest, well actually Neil Howe is, but he's in a category all by himself, but as far as economic updates go, Lance is the man! The other guests are all doom and gloom, "get ready for the next crash" ..."cash is trash"... "this is the end of the empire " ,....."everything will be destroyed!" bla bla bla , Im sick of hearing that already!
Stock market cycles typically runs for 5 - 8 years yet I aggree that this current cycle might end up behing very short. Thing is bond cycles are way longer. We are coming out of a roughly 40 years bond bull market. Thinking that this
Fantastic as usual. I look forward to it every week. Lance says to always stay invested and he makes a very compelling argument. Fact is he is correct when we look back at history. However, Jeremy Grantham and others insist that this is one of those rare times to not be invested. His definition of success is that there will come a time in the near future that you will be glad you were out. In the mean time it could be very painful. What to do???
Good stuff, detailed insights. Lance had some good thoughts on credit markets and rates rising until something breaks, which he says would force the Fed to make smaller rate hikes. We haven't seen rates rise on their own like this in a while. Is he expecting bond prices on the long end, short end or both to rise? (rates to fall) The currency market also seems to be throwing a fit.
An observation about the High Yield credit market & the JNK ETF (mentioned ~42min) - JNK has traded sideways in a +/-2% range since Nov 2020. Since Jan 2022 the JNK ETF was down 8.5% to the March 2022 low. Since then it's recovered 3.5%, so it's now down 6% since Jan 2022. HY credit spreads ran up to 4.2% in March 2022. Since then they've fallen back down to 3.3%. That's around the level where it was at in Dec 2021. Make if that what you will of that performance as a signal of a "healthy" or an "unhealthy" market...
19:10 No need to dumb things down Lance. Most viewers are reasonably knowledgeable. And the ones who aren't yet can look definitions up at Investopedia.
If the Fed is unable to continue to raise rates, as you suggest, will that cause the rate curve to reverse its inversion and start the recession this year?
Shocked these two guys dont get more follows. Straight up talk. No jibberish or grand standing. Simple explanation and best of all actionable calls for the average joe !
Had to re-watch a couple of parts... Lance really got me with the "good gummy bears".... still chuckling! Apparently I came for the excellent, informative and educational analysis and stayed for the jokes :)
all stocks rise and fall together during these tumultuous times. I'm also holding mining stocks at the moment and ready to buy more if there's a capitulation. Good luck! Uranium and mining stocks should bounce back strongly
Thanks guys, there's no other really good investing shows like this the time goes so fast watching it. You guys are great at explaining stuff and I learn alot
Help us hit 100,000 subscribers to this TH-cam channel -- we're so close! Just click the red Subscribe button to the right!
I love, love, love listening to Lance's knowledge and analysis. 👍
This is definitely becoming one of the best NO Bull investment channels on TH-cam.
Lance Adam vlog always a must watch
Like Lance a lot. Sound, dispassionate, level-headed approach.
Watching your channel is literally one of the best parts of my day and I am always excited to see what interview is next.
5s & 30s inverted, 2s & 10s inverted
Adam and Lance for president!
Great video as always fellas. I’m one of those guys that’s held a lot more cash that I wanted to for the last couple of years. Every time I watch you two I want to pick up the phone, sign up with Lance and wire him my cash.
Love these weekly recaps Gents!
Great Session and Advice. I only own one Cannabis stock in YOURF. With all the Fed tightening, I would not get into any cannabis stock that has lots of debt to service, since banking access has not been legalized. YOURF is profitable already and has the lowest 'SP to Revenue ratio' of all in the sector. SP looks to be turning around now.
I would like Lance to speak about the emerging market (aren't those the commodity producers), and the international market. Gold as well please
Yes I have been holding out for the pump coming from the end of the war. I will be selling into that pump because all the other macro headwinds remain.
Not sure about the idea of the market "pricing in" the bad stuff. Did the market "price in" the rate hikes prior to the dotcom bubble crash?
I'm still in the market though. But I know market is high up its own FOMO farts, and not really "pricing in" the bad stuff. That's why I'm heavy in gold miners and some value stonks.
Adam, I love this channel because you have a knack for keenly articulating my own financial and market concerns, as in this video. I'm grateful for the connections to New Harbor (I became a client last year), and Lance---learning a lot along the way. Please keep up the great work and thanks for all you and the greater team do!
I don't know if 2018-2019 had this much fear in the market because now we have the Fed having to tighten until something breaks due to inflation. Europe is probably already in a recession. Just like the bulls say, this time IS different and I'm saying that as a bear. All I see is some very short term trading opportunities but gotta be crazy to be an investor here if you're not a trader.
He told you what the match is bro... dang ... listen... the banks ainte going to lend!
Tlt 🚀🚀🚀😎🏠✈️
!!!!!!
Rather have cheaper homes and higher rates, then higher priced homes and cheaper rates any day. Cause I believe in making a big enough down payment that it doesn't matter. I can't make a big enough down payment to matter, when homes are so expensive. Yeah, I might have a lower payment, but it will take me forever to pay off the home so screw that.
Plus you can always refinance to a lower rate! If you buy an overpriced house, you are stuck with paying that principal off, whereas the interest for your loan, is in a way “negotiable” through time.
The guys walking around with cigarette analogy made me laugh out loud, really good! Bravo
What bonds have been performing well this week is he talking about? I don't see any. This guy is a big bond guy, watch out. Money isn't leaving the market. Look at the defensive stocks and look at the money going into inverse funds vs. volume going into TLT. Money not coming out of stocks and going into bonds if they ever will. Probably gold more like it than bonds. Fed policies haven't only screwed up equities but bond buying as well. Bonds continue to be in a bear market as well.
Amazing video and I'm really surprised at how objective it was! Very refreshing takes.
It took only a few weeks from raising rates to inversion that has to be some sort of record. we live in some wild times thats for sure.
IF people listen to online giru's they'd be in a world of hurt , keep your OWN eyes on your OWN stuff ,
If Lance shows up next week with a straw hat, a mouthful of “snuff”, and an Old Farmers Almanac in hand, and opines about whether the “rain is gonna effect the rhubarb”- I’m gonna lose it!
Of course it's a bear market, bear squeeze right now, because the institutions don't want cheap prices to short against. They want prices to go up so they do a bear squeeze to move prices up so they can short again at higher prices. The shorts are also taking profits right now, while taking advantage of the buy on the dip crowd. If you think like an institution and you know there are a ton of buy on the dip traders, why would you short down here, and why not take advantage of the buy on the dip crowd by taking some profits to entice the buy on the dip crowd and conning them into thinking the short covering rally is the bottom.
The FED lowered rates 3 times before CV19 hit. So the economy was already heading toward recession - as was the world economy.
You're right. They also bailed out the repo market with almost $1 T USD, Q4 '19, but blamed it on COVID!
Next week bonds will be bullish and hence stocks go down. We’ll see but bonds are very oversold and have a nice bottom pattern.
Very honest and balanced. Keep them coming 👍.
Absolutely will watch the Q&A.
I am always looking forward to these videos. I agree with all the others below that this is the best information about investing, bar none!
Two very likeable guys. Great insights and very enjoyable to watch on Saturday morning.. Thanks very much.
Professional
Starting to love Lance and his takes- bad finance dad jokes and all haha 😂
Let’s get Adam to 100K. Almost there..
Interesting: Friend/partner Chris Martenson's latest vid mentions gardening & seed strategy.
Bears are mostly logical.. Bulls just shout ;) Great Content. Thanks!
I agree that it isn't the time to run away from the market if you are an active trader, which most people watching this are, but for some of my accounts that are managed funds, like the account I share that my parents set up for me, where I have to actually set down with a broker work out what bundled investments I want or something like a 401k rapid response to events isn't possible. That is sorta where I'm at right now. I haven't moved everything out on accounts I actively control, but on accounts where I can't rapidly respond to the market I've been making moves out because it is better to lose a bit of upside now and get out in front of what is coming while there is time than wait as late as possible and risk getting clotheslined by the market.
I just wanted to say that I respect your Wealthion Podcasts and channel is one of the best podcast I follow. You guys do great work you’re greatly appreciated. I heard you guys ask for other people to bring on his guests Can someone I think would be great for your channel is Steven Van Metre the bond king.
What a great video! This is just so informative. I loved the analogy of the pile of wood with gasoline all over it....just waiting for a match.
...."and we're here right now"
Can the exogenous event precede the inversion of the yield curve ? An exogenous event like Russia invading Ukraine putting Europe almost definitely in a deep recession ?
Best recap on media! Blows away anything like on CNBC, etc
CNBC is all FOMO reporting
Lance was spot on with the cannabis sector. The problem in Canada is oversupply, low margins, and really spotty and confusing legal structure. I recently bought SNDL, because of their market leading position and net cash flows for the first time coming up. Everyone else in the sector is bleeding cash. Terrible sector overall, but like the man said, those who survive will be big as many go bankrupt and the market consolidates.
Another excellent discussion. Thank you both.
ALL-WAYS the best video of the week! 😁👍
Great Vid.
Good common sense and experience-based opinions. Great Stuff!
Dont you expect exactly oposit market movement after Russia-Ukrajinian peace ? For US custommers and companies will nothing change, sanctions and limited oil supply will remain !
Adam, My husband wondered if you could interview Catherine Austin Fitts. Thank you.
Was thinking about you two today, Brainard opened her mouth and the TLT collapsed and the yield curve uninverted. Wow, didn't take much....
On a day when gold was down the gold miners had a good rally. This is very bullish. The gold miners generally lead the gold price in movement, which might seem counterintuitive but just compare the charts. Various currencies are experiencing high volatility. The smart money is already moving to gold stocks. Don’t be left behind.
I have never participated in a TH-cam video conference. How do I join the event. Will I receive an email invite? if not what do I do to join?
Thanks, PS this is indeed a great Chanel on TH-cam (Wealthion), and I have watched almost every show for the last 9 months of so.
Yes Sir thankyou very2 much all info..i like this all friend company support me..
Thank you so much Adam and Lance for doing these!!! SO helpful!!!!! :)
Thanks again guys, great info .. and ... decent jokes :). One potential question for your Q&A session: How do Lance and/or the new Harbour pros choose stop loss limits?
And if they answer this, I hope they can answer how to plan your stop loss as to avoid a wash sale. If things happen so quickly, say you buy a stock, put a stop loss on it, but the stop loss happens within that time frame of a wash sale, now you can’t claim the loss on taxes. What’s the strategy?
@@JRP026 NH buys "insurance" via various option plays on positions so they don't trade in an out a lot or get stopped out or very rarely.
@@JRP026 I believe you're misunderstanding what a wash sale is. A wash sale is when you sell a security for a loss then purchase that same security or a substantially identical one within 30 days.
Which of course is moronic but that's government for ya 🙄
When discussing the state of the US Markets & the outlook for the 2-4 weeks ahead, I think more and more nowadays, that that discussions cannot be had without considering options positioning, and especially the key Options Expiration dates each month.
The Options game, and the money flows that those options and their related dealer hedging flows create, have become so big nowadays that they have now become the tail that wags the dog. Market volatility (up & down) is amplified around monthly & quarterly Expiration dates.
It's no random coincidence that the Market made significant moves around the monthly Expiration Date in Jan 2022 (21 Jan), Feb 2022 (18 Feb), and March 2022 (18 March).
There's a tendency for Market commentary to look for exogenous reasons for the Market's moves around those dates, when in actuality the size & depth of those moves are more a reflection of the amplifying impact of options expiration & dealer hedging flows into that Options Expiration date.
The April Options Expiration date is 15 April.
Good post. 👍
Excellent edition! Valuable comments for retail investors.
Jeff Christian claims that the historical correlation between inversion of yield curves and recession is quite bad..
I have a suggestion: Please post these on Rumble at the same time so we don't have to come over to Sh*tTube to see this excellent analysis before Monday.
Lots of good advice here.
He keeps trading based on technicals, but all the research says that it is a looser strategy and 9 out of 10 money managers dont beat sp500
Lance is very interesting but offers very little with regard to precious metals.
An unbelievably concise explanation of yield curve inversions.
Lance Robert's is my favorite guest, well actually Neil Howe is, but he's in a category all by himself, but as far as economic updates go, Lance is the man! The other guests are all doom and gloom, "get ready for the next crash" ..."cash is trash"... "this is the end of the empire " ,....."everything will be destroyed!" bla bla bla , Im sick of hearing that already!
Stock market cycles typically runs for 5 - 8 years yet I aggree that this current cycle might end up behing very short. Thing is bond cycles are way longer. We are coming out of a roughly 40 years bond bull market. Thinking that this
Love these weekly updates, thanks guys!
every inversion uninverts eventually and then there is a recession, stupid!
Fantastic as usual. I look forward to it every week. Lance says to always stay invested and he makes a very compelling argument. Fact is he is correct when we look back at history. However, Jeremy Grantham and others insist that this is one of those rare times to not be invested. His definition of success is that there will come a time in the near future that you will be glad you were out. In the mean time it could be very painful. What to do???
“Zelensky and Putin have a hot bath together” lol
Adam you have announced that on April 5th at noon you will have a live Q&A program on TH-cam. Is that California time or East time?
NoonET
I love the Weekly Market Recap! Superb analysis! Thanks for taking the time to share it with us! Sincere regards!
Love your work guys!
Warning for crypto scammers in the comments.
What is the minimum investment for Lance s fund.
Good stuff, detailed insights. Lance had some good thoughts on credit markets and rates rising until something breaks, which he says would force the Fed to make smaller rate hikes. We haven't seen rates rise on their own like this in a while. Is he expecting bond prices on the long end, short end or both to rise? (rates to fall) The currency market also seems to be throwing a fit.
What is the minimum investment for Lance fund
Does RAI have any offices in Canada?
Best Dad joke ever!
Thank you gentlemen
Thanks again for a great update
Love Lance! (except when he makes jokes...)
Another good one, fellas. Tks.
Lance's top notch!
Lot of hand waving
April 5th!!! thanks. Would it be possible for Lance to share his charts? Visuals are always very effective teaching strategy.
Yes
Man Lance really teaches a solid mentality.
Lance be the Man👍
This is your best guest Adam! This channel is becoming my favorite thing about the weekend.
An observation about the High Yield credit market & the JNK ETF (mentioned ~42min) -
JNK has traded sideways in a +/-2% range since Nov 2020.
Since Jan 2022 the JNK ETF was down 8.5% to the March 2022 low. Since then it's recovered 3.5%, so it's now down 6% since Jan 2022.
HY credit spreads ran up to 4.2% in March 2022. Since then they've fallen back down to 3.3%. That's around the level where it was at in Dec 2021.
Make if that what you will of that performance as a signal of a "healthy" or an "unhealthy" market...
Thank you very much.
99k! Thanks buddy
Phenomenal information here, everything explained so clearly. Thanks for really diving into the mechanics for us on Fed tightening.
19:10 No need to dumb things down Lance. Most viewers are reasonably knowledgeable. And the ones who aren't yet can look definitions up at Investopedia.
The yield curve just inverted, I’m going to go pick up a few of those nickels right in front of that steamroller.
If the Fed is unable to continue to raise rates, as you suggest, will that cause the rate curve to reverse its inversion and start the recession this year?
11:25 this is a good analogy to "kindling". I also agree that a credit-related event could spark the blaze.
Shocked these two guys dont get more follows. Straight up talk. No jibberish or grand standing. Simple explanation and best of all actionable calls for the average joe !
Had to re-watch a couple of parts... Lance really got me with the "good gummy bears".... still chuckling! Apparently I came for the excellent, informative and educational analysis and stayed for the jokes :)
Love those long duration treasuries. Especially considering how few people own them.
Lance is out of whack when it comes to emerging markets. The brazilian stock market YTD has risen much more than the S&P
That's only one EM. The basket hold more than that EEM or the Vanguard version. Asia has been under pressure .
I'm long uranium and mining stocks ... will these be vulnerable too in such an environmemt? 🤔
all stocks rise and fall together during these tumultuous times. I'm also holding mining stocks at the moment and ready to buy more if there's a capitulation. Good luck! Uranium and mining stocks should bounce back strongly
Great show; I missed the gummy bear recommendation though... Which are the best?
Lance was jokingly referring to cannabis edibles
@@Wealthion 🤣 Ahhh, now I get it lol. Thank you for clearing that up!
Thanks guys, there's no other really good investing shows like this the time goes so fast watching it. You guys are great at explaining stuff and I learn alot