I've been a fan of Adam + Lance's analysis and predictions over the years and while many of the articles were motivational and made compelling arguments, the biggest problem that hindered the growth of my portfolio was discipline and the knowledge of how to add
It's nice to hear Lance and Adam talk about how making houses "investments" and not places to live ruined the housing market. It has been destroyed by it being an investment
In California even 3% to 5% isn't enough to make buying a home affordable. Housing cost in California needs to be reduced by 75% for people to have a chance at affordability. Because that's how crazy housing cost in California is right now. It's not even close to being affordable right now for most people in California. A 75% reduction in price is needed across the board. Taxes also need to be much lower too. Also people need to stop voting Democrat too.
@@alexplante8608 Taxes will never go down but up!! You have to pay for the Public Unions, school administrators, Town Hall administrators and politicians lavish salaries and million dollar pensions!!
In order for us to prepare for the future we need to look into safer investment with good prospect . If you have the mindset of investing 5 years ahead and just keep DCA every time you get paid. This july My portfolio have accrued gains of about $130k from copytrade under the guidance of my investment -Advisor *"Taylor Bryant Cowan"* whose skills in portfolio diversification are unmatched and client-centered.
Love you guys. Wish everybody in the TH-cam space had your integrity. Unfortunately since most folks wealth is in their home and 401K, that is where many TH-cam charlatans (NOT Wealthion) hang out. Beware!
I AM HARDCORE FAN OF THIS WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS WITH LANCE & ADAM. AMAZING CHANNEL.CANT MISS THIS PODCAST FOR ANYTHING ON WEEKEND. YOU GUYS ARE LIKE MY "FINANCIAL TIMES" NEWS PAPER ON MARKET FOR ME. THANK YOU MUCH ADAM & LANCE.
Another well done Wealthion recap. Glad you mentioned the ideology of health is wealth. I’ve been thinking about creating Functional Medicine content - you may have pushed me over the edge. Thanks Adam!
Love the weekly market updates with Lance, especially when you touch on points made by experts from shows earlier in the week. I don’t have the time to watch every single show so it’s great to get a top level overview. Keep up the great work!
Great show! Short term positives - lower oil prices, Ukraine/Russian wheat agreement with Turkey, Russia did open up some of the gas pipeline with Germany, lower $US and interest rates. Longer term negatives - Recession and Stagflation. Very tricky times! I’m waiting to see how the FED meeting plays out and tech earnings with lower advertising income.
You're absolutely right! We all look forward to the fun interchange between Lance and yourself. The lightheartedness makes digesting the "parade of horribles" a lot easier. Please continue these lively conversations. They help to remind us not to take ourselves so darn seriously!!!
Really neat idea about the I-Bonds as "gifts." Great hedge and positioning tool for families. Also, is there a convenient way to know exactly how much money is sitting on the sidelines? It seems like that's a critical question, independent of stock valuations. What are the various ways we could measure and track that? Cash balances? Cash balances relative to debits/credits? Margin account balances? Some blended indicator?
Would love to hear and get opinions from you and any of your guests about what the Fed is going to do with almost 2.7 Trillion in MBS. How can they wind this down, who would buy? Love your content! Keep up the good work!
My wife and I did what Adam mentions with ibonds several months ago. We purchased the 20k this year and gifted each other 40k as well. The funds are coming out of our 'forever home' fund. But to Adams point, it's guaranteed a 9.6% return for the next 6 months. It appears we will likely be between 10-12% return for the following 6 months based on some initial projections. We keep investing a little in the market each month from our 'forever home' fund in blue chip stocks as well, but ibonds continue to be our best performing asset. It is unfortunate we can't purchase more.
I-BOND explanation good. Good return and protecting principal at the same time. Slow and steady still works especially in uncertain volatile market conditions.
Liked Lance' take on Blackstone. To solve the issue best way would be to use a pro free market solution of a flat 20% downpayment to make the playing field much more fair.
Great talk this week! It’s funny that you guys mention it, I’ve personally been adding to palantir over the past months as well, and I agree with lance here. With companies that have strong balance sheets today, I think a lot of the risk into broader markets is now starting to really be quite priced in, short term we should have a good summer :)
Totally agree with lance on the housing issue. 20% down would reduce prices as well. Look at the size of 1950s houses compared to houses today. Over investment in housing for a long time now
Loved the comment at around 45:00 minutes about so called advisors/managers who just ride the wave, we've seen a massive crash in 2020 and potentially are in another one. Sitting on their hands doing nothing is a disgraceful thing to do when managing other people's money, my ex-financial advisor was one of those people. They literally told us in Feb/March 2020 that they were going to shut down the global economy and yet these funds just sat tight...I cannot understand that way of thinking and I will never again let anyone else manage my money.
You have been talking down the markets for a while and said the low hasn't been put in. Now you are saying add exposures. If you are so sure about the low hasn't been put in, why add exposures now? The truth of the matter is nobody knows where the bottom or the top is until it has actually happened or in our rear-view mirror. I am not trying to be rude but this is the fact.
Higher interest rates might equally solve the housing problem, since it produces a closer-to-equal footing. And won't require the govmt to enforce minimum deposits. It worked before. I want to be able to suffer and save up, then buy cash. bypassing interest.
As a Canadian I thoroughly enjoy Wealthion, Adam, Lance and all your programing. What happens in the U.S. happens in Canada on a delayed and sometimes immediate fashion. Many thanks to you all and keep up the great work... Regards and best wishes from the Great White North
totally agree w/ Lance’s 20% Solution !! I agree w/ Lance on several things ! Leave homes alone …He’s your most informative guest on many subjects ..odds are not good because the rich have most the money and control congress ..greed has no end …
Great comment on the pricing of the stock market right now vs recession sizing. Fifty fifty either way at the moment. Time where you really have to keep a finger on the pulse of indicators and act if they show signs of deviation off the current status.
Manual stop loss sounds like a paradox, but I like it. I have stopped out of a stock, then had the pain of the wash sale rule and tax footprint, for what was basically unintended.
A few points. With the stop losses i've had success on setting limit buy downs. For example buying down a position 25% in four sections limits my loss to 5.4%. Set all take profit to the same level and its 23% return. You can do it with your stock and your hedge. The macro economy is like tracking a hurricane right now, it could go many different directions within a standard deviation. With the total corporate ownership concept I think it will crumble under high yield duress as money as a reversion to the mean is borrowed. Demographics additionally are a donut hole for demanding higher rents on investor owned properties. Population growth is not there to support it.
👍Not only is a full-time pro investor like Lance far more informed than we amatuer Retail Joes can ever be ~ but his discussion of stop losses shows he can also outsmart the A.I. algos! A nice insight there, Thanks.
I like Lance but not putting a stop loss set in your trades is nothing new. Set a price alert and look at the position like he said. Then execute what your going to do.
Interesting discussion on BlackRock et al getting into/investing in single family market, which has been going on for years mind you. My issue with PE (private equity) doing such things is they are not a 'business' per se. These are not business people, they are not entrepreneurs. They're PE, there's a difference. My personal experience with PE is they are pretty horrible at running/managing anything. Basically they acquire and in no short order screw it up. They look to extract as much value/cash flow as they possibly can and then dispose of the asset. This is bad, it's bad for everyone.
I bought PLTR when is slipped below $8. I am happy. There are some diamonds in the rough now. Cathy Wood keeps piling into the same stuff and driving them off of bottoms. I may buy ARKK if we have another major selloff. 20%+ or so.
Adam, please do a short video explaining inflation. Please explain the differences between cost-push and demand-pull inflation. Please explain how curtailing money supply will bring down energy costs, just as well as increasing energy supply. Of course, inflation is a monetary phenomenon, but don’t shortages of fundamentally needed materials exacerbate inflation upon different segments of consumption? Eg Too much currency may inflate assets, while too little energy permeates shortages or higher input costs affecting consumption. Please clear up our poor, muddled, uneducated understanding of inflation. Also labor disruptions… It seems simplistic to just quote just a cute phrase by Milton Friedman. A man, whom I greatly respect.
We need policy to return housing to a socially stable market. The problem with higher down payments is that banks will not make residential mortgage loans based on assets or equity, they demand income to debt ratios and credit ratings. This is nonsensical from a financial risk standpoint but it's driven by political risk. After 2008, politicians pressured banks not to foreclose on residential homes, even allowing mortgage holders to cease payments. This means lenders could not raid equity to recapture their loan values (with all the complications of securitization). And then they allowed these loans to be sold off to private equity while the Fed reflated assets. So the financial risk for lenders became whoever the government won't rescue. Yes, send checks to households and let them spend it at the mall!
What is safe in chaos? Gold. What can’t stay down below its current price? Silver. Otherwise you’re having to read the “ticker” all night. Consider a reverse mortgage while the government is still making them available, and diversify into other real property that’s going to be in demand when jobs are insecure.
Couldnt disagree more with Lance's view on what a Stop loss is (and how to use them): he said it is merely an indication of a level of resistance (says all the money mangers watching the same levels etc). What?? A stop loss is supposed to be the level YOU designate is your level of tolerance to lock in a profit or to close a position at a loss. Support and Resistance levels should be distinctly different and support / resistance levels (alone) that Lance says everyone is watching should never be how you manage your portfolio / position risk. If that is how Lance decides when to buy or sell based on technical support and resistance levels -- No thank you! I do agree on never leaving a live stop loss order out in the market, but you should (have) and follow a distinct set of trading rules and obey your tolerance. You can always get back in again.
Regular viewer here, love the Saturday recap. On houses - consider the trap that regular renters are in, how does one save for a 20% deposit while paying high rents, high gas, high food? Just not realistic. I scraped a 10% deposit together 15 years ago to get a better interest rate, but it was a major challenge, and that was on a high London salary, Lance, I love your insights, but your wrong on housing.
I disagree, nothing will ever be perfect, our personal and local circumstances are different, and even though it would make you buying a house more difficult because you can't save enough for the down payment, it would also make it less appetizing for these giga corporations to buy everything. Again, no solution will be perfect and maybe not everyone would benefit in the short term, but it's probably something that needs to be done. You in particular might not see the benefits immediately, but they would come.
Exactly. Plus I believe the Bankster Cabal (Davos/WEF criminals) are pushing very hard to actually blow up the system so they can implement their Great Reset!! Frankly the Cabal has been very public about their plan for totalitarian control of the planet. I find it stunning that people as seemly well informed as the Wealtheon crew are either ignorant of this threat or being purposely silent…. Are these guys so totally lost in the weeds that they have no broader perspective of the global financial system (and related history).
An investment advisor who is soliciting new business should not have any hesitation in responding to a question about performance. I wonder why REI does?
The takeaway from an 1,5h long discussion and the answer to the title’s question is - no one knows! Keep yours chins up folks and stick to rule number 1 - don’t lose any money 💰
Two big mistakes that most people are making right now: 1. Assuming the fed will pivot sooner than later. 2. Assuming that a pivot will be bullish when they do
Just wait until the FED gives a 100 basis point interest rate rise next week. Housing is collapsing. People are being unrealistic. I hate the term "bullish" in the current enviroment.
This is bullish for Blackrock. Bullish for most mega cap corporations. The implosion of asset prices and their subsequent purchase for pennies on the dollar is very bullish indeed. We are heading into neo feudalism and it is indeed very bullish for some.
Just heard that Russian missiles hit Ukraine port/grain center. The macro on this ag issue is critical, and people need to dig deeper than the daily financial headlines. This ag and fertilizer situation is very serious and there isn't going to be a "problem solved" switch.
All and all the market is still dominated by (retail)traders and not by investors. Real economic indicators are still trending downwards apart from stacking up consumer debts!
The trivialisation of passive indexing around the 30 minute mark is a little ridiculous. If this were true, then active fund managers could just buy the top 5-10 stocks in an s&p500 etf and expect to outperform both passive indexes and the market. Given no active managers are outperforming indexes over meaningful time periods, it's hard to believe what Lance is saying there.
IDK, the weekly update is starting to sound the same, .I.e. market already has it in, it’s going up but it’s still going down, this is why you need me. But ibonds have some potential. My take away is Lance is saying not clear what is going to happen, let’s wait for better signals. Good insight on thing though.
Italy has always been stratified by class. Today their big problem is aging demographics, which is why you can buy a house real cheap in Italy (1 euro houses) as long as it's not on the coast or in the center of the city..
The financialisation of residential property is a side-effect of the financial repression which has been enacted by the central banks over the last 40 years. People started looking to property as investment when they could no longer obtain decent yields on treasuries and annuities. The only thing that will fix the property market is a return to higher yields on bonds. Unfortunately that will also destroy the financial system which is encumbered with too much debt. We need a new financial system based on equity rather than debt, but that won't happen until the old one is destroyed.
Their discussion about there being SO many possible paths and scenarios for the economy and the markets reminds me of 2004/2005. At that time, the economy was slow, Greenspan had been raising rates, the markets had been recovering but appeared to stall, oil was high, and then like now, there were a whole bunch of paths the thing could take. A lot of people were sitting on the sidelines waiting for another shoe to drop. What finally happened was, Greenspan stopped raising rates, some growth in the economy resumed, and the markets breathed a big sigh of relief. Then in 206 and 2007, the markets rallied to new highs. Granted the rally was short lived because the housing market collapsed in 2008. But the point is, the economic and financial outlook depends largely in the degree to which the Fed tightens and how long before he stops. That is really unpredictable right now, which was also the case back in 2004 and2005. But once we find out the Feds choices and the severity, we will know.
I like your thinking, but does the FED have that much power? The Bear often seems to disappear- then suddenly mauls even more ferocious than the 1st attack. The Risk at least for now doesn’t warrant the all in approach - the Reward seems negligible in relation. Your example perhaps exemplifies the temporary gains that can be had vs the longer (3-5 year expectation). I’m afraid that I’ve become very wary of all these future expectations of profit growth. And neither am I willing to enter a day trader/stock flipper scenario. (Perhaps that too will need to change?) “Measure Twice - cut once” has through long experience proven to be wiser course. And not pushing the Buy button till the next day or even longer has also saved me from innumerable emotional knee jerks....so far. Patience, patience. There is no such thing as a “once in a lifetime opportunity” Good Investing Friend!
![PASULOL รามเกียรติ์ ตอนที่ 4 นนทกพบรัก [Ramakien Ep.4: Nonthok in love]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/tMUQgmZzf_A/mqdefault.jpg)
WATCH the free video on functional health Adam mentioned here: wealthion.com/health
I've been a fan of Adam + Lance's analysis and predictions over the years and while many of the articles were motivational and made compelling arguments, the biggest problem that hindered the growth of my portfolio was discipline and the knowledge of how to add
True! I will stick to day trading and consulting with my advisor over traditional investing and retirement savings.
The Adam + Lance weekly segment may be the best 1+ hour on TH-cam each week. Thanks guys.
Thank you -- glad you enjoy it!
It's nice to hear Lance and Adam talk about how making houses "investments" and not places to live ruined the housing market. It has been destroyed by it being an investment
In California even 3% to 5% isn't enough to make buying a home affordable. Housing cost in California needs to be reduced by 75% for people to have a chance at affordability. Because that's how crazy housing cost in California is right now. It's not even close to being affordable right now for most people in California. A 75% reduction in price is needed across the board. Taxes also need to be much lower too. Also people need to stop voting Democrat too.
@@alexplante8608 Taxes will never go down but up!! You have to pay for the Public Unions, school administrators, Town Hall administrators and politicians lavish salaries and million dollar pensions!!
In order for us to prepare for the future we need to look into safer investment with good prospect . If you have the mindset of investing 5 years ahead and just keep DCA every time you get paid. This july My portfolio have accrued gains of about $130k from copytrade under the guidance of my investment -Advisor *"Taylor Bryant Cowan"* whose skills in portfolio diversification are unmatched and client-centered.
@@alexplante8608 That's incredible. How can i reach this Advisor? I need to take advantage of this bearish market.
@@gracefarrell4638 Look up his name on the lnternet if you need help.
Love you guys. Wish everybody in the TH-cam space had your integrity. Unfortunately since most folks wealth is in their home and 401K, that is where many TH-cam charlatans (NOT Wealthion) hang out. Beware!
I'm totally hooked on the weekly interview with Lance. My must see video every week.
He has a radio show mon-fri too
Same
I AM HARDCORE FAN OF THIS WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS WITH LANCE & ADAM. AMAZING CHANNEL.CANT MISS THIS PODCAST FOR ANYTHING ON WEEKEND. YOU GUYS ARE LIKE MY "FINANCIAL TIMES" NEWS PAPER ON MARKET FOR ME. THANK YOU MUCH ADAM & LANCE.
Keep Lance going weekly. Your conversations always lead to a gem of some kind. Thanks.
Another well done Wealthion recap.
Glad you mentioned the ideology of health is wealth. I’ve been thinking about creating Functional Medicine content - you may have pushed me over the edge. Thanks Adam!
Love the weekly market updates with Lance, especially when you touch on points made by experts from shows earlier in the week. I don’t have the time to watch every single show so it’s great to get a top level overview. Keep up the great work!
Adam, Your best ever. More strength to your arm!
Thanks for talking about iBonds! Most will not because they cannot make a commission on them.
Thank you -
I bought the I bonds and I might buy just a little of Palentir…
Love your channel!
Thank you Adam: Great questions !
Gotta Love the RECAP GUYS
Enjoying every episode since the very first one. Stay awesome guys.
Another Brilliant weekly breakdown
Thank you guys!!
Love these interviews. Thank you!
Great show! Short term positives - lower oil prices, Ukraine/Russian wheat agreement with Turkey, Russia did open up some of the gas pipeline with Germany, lower $US and interest rates. Longer term negatives - Recession and Stagflation. Very tricky times! I’m waiting to see how the FED meeting plays out and tech earnings with lower advertising income.
Watch the news, Russia just bombed Odesa port infrastructure
Russia already broke that agreement by shelling Odessa.
The weekly market recap has become must watch content for me.
Nice mention about bond inverse head and shoulder, as well we have a big head and shoulder on 10year yield. Good sign for bond market.
Adam you're the I-Bond sniper, master of arcane wisdom!
You're absolutely right! We all look forward to the fun interchange between Lance and yourself. The lightheartedness makes digesting the "parade of horribles" a lot easier. Please continue these lively conversations. They help to remind us not to take ourselves so darn seriously!!!
You have just nailed down the issue in people mind. I knew a lot of people currently hold cash at hands or cash parking in the funds .
Loved the i bonds bid. Feeling the love for smaller income earners who are looking for a safe haven. Ted! Thank you!
Extremely useful discussions to me the lay person, thanks 🙏
Thanks mate
If you make a trend line from daily march hi to April high, we haven't tagged it yet. Very close. On a 4h chart we hit it Friday and rejected
Ban companies from buying residential housing case closed....
Really neat idea about the I-Bonds as "gifts." Great hedge and positioning tool for families.
Also, is there a convenient way to know exactly how much money is sitting on the sidelines? It seems like that's a critical question, independent of stock valuations. What are the various ways we could measure and track that? Cash balances? Cash balances relative to debits/credits? Margin account balances? Some blended indicator?
Adam: “I am going to have to start wrapping up here.”
Me: “Ah, still 30 minutes to go!”
We like your show!
Would love to hear and get opinions from you and any of your guests about what the Fed is going to do with almost 2.7 Trillion in MBS. How can they wind this down, who would buy? Love your content! Keep up the good work!
Wow! Lance's proposal on fixing the housing market. Simple yet brilliant
My wife and I did what Adam mentions with ibonds several months ago. We purchased the 20k this year and gifted each other 40k as well. The funds are coming out of our 'forever home' fund. But to Adams point, it's guaranteed a 9.6% return for the next 6 months. It appears we will likely be between 10-12% return for the following 6 months based on some initial projections. We keep investing a little in the market each month from our 'forever home' fund in blue chip stocks as well, but ibonds continue to be our best performing asset. It is unfortunate we can't purchase more.
I-BOND explanation good. Good return and protecting principal at the same time. Slow and steady still works especially in uncertain volatile market conditions.
Great Saturday wisdom as always.
Thank you
Timmy: Will the market go up or down?
Howard Marks: Yes
Liked Lance' take on Blackstone. To solve the issue best way would be to use a pro free market solution of a flat 20% downpayment to make the playing field much more fair.
love Lance analysis on a Saturday
Still watching Frank G Melbourne Australia 🇦🇺 ❤️
Great talk this week! It’s funny that you guys mention it, I’ve personally been adding to palantir over the past months as well, and I agree with lance here. With companies that have strong balance sheets today, I think a lot of the risk into broader markets is now starting to really be quite priced in, short term we should have a good summer :)
great stuff
Where can I get Canadian content ? LOve your show/
Agree with Michael
good show as usual thanks.
i would like to suggest you have a chat with The Market Sniper
he seems perfect for PP
Totally agree with lance on the housing issue. 20% down would reduce prices as well. Look at the size of 1950s houses compared to houses today. Over investment in housing for a long time now
Loved the comment at around 45:00 minutes about so called advisors/managers who just ride the wave, we've seen a massive crash in 2020 and potentially are in another one. Sitting on their hands doing nothing is a disgraceful thing to do when managing other people's money, my ex-financial advisor was one of those people. They literally told us in Feb/March 2020 that they were going to shut down the global economy and yet these funds just sat tight...I cannot understand that way of thinking and I will never again let anyone else manage my money.
Thanks! My go to channel always, except the part that you briefly criticized AOC unjustified!
You have been talking down the markets for a while and said the low hasn't been put in. Now you are saying add exposures. If you are so sure about the low hasn't been put in, why add exposures now? The truth of the matter is nobody knows where the bottom or the top is until it has actually happened or in our rear-view mirror. I am not trying to be rude but this is the fact.
The five year plus charts seem pretty clear there's another leg down.
Higher interest rates might equally solve the housing problem, since it produces a closer-to-equal footing. And won't require the govmt to enforce minimum deposits. It worked before. I want to be able to suffer and save up, then buy cash. bypassing interest.
thanks
As a Canadian I thoroughly enjoy Wealthion, Adam, Lance and all your programing. What happens in the U.S. happens in Canada on a delayed and sometimes immediate fashion. Many thanks to you all and keep up the great work... Regards and best wishes from the Great White North
totally agree w/ Lance’s 20% Solution !! I agree w/ Lance on several things ! Leave homes alone …He’s your most informative guest on many subjects ..odds are not good because the rich have most the money and control congress ..greed has no end …
Great comment on the pricing of the stock market right now vs recession sizing. Fifty fifty either way at the moment. Time where you really have to keep a finger on the pulse of indicators and act if they show signs of deviation off the current status.
Manual stop loss sounds like a paradox, but I like it. I have stopped out of a stock, then had the pain of the wash sale rule and tax footprint, for what was basically unintended.
A few points. With the stop losses i've had success on setting limit buy downs. For example buying down a position 25% in four sections limits my loss to 5.4%. Set all take profit to the same level and its 23% return. You can do it with your stock and your hedge. The macro economy is like tracking a hurricane right now, it could go many different directions within a standard deviation. With the total corporate ownership concept I think it will crumble under high yield duress as money as a reversion to the mean is borrowed. Demographics additionally are a donut hole for demanding higher rents on investor owned properties. Population growth is not there to support it.
👍Not only is a full-time pro investor like Lance far more informed than we amatuer Retail Joes can ever be ~ but his discussion of stop losses shows he can also outsmart the A.I. algos! A nice insight there, Thanks.
I like Lance but not putting a stop loss set in your trades is nothing new. Set a price alert and look at the position like he said. Then execute what your going to do.
It as obvious as the nose on your face!
THE FED IS MAKING A GIANT POLICY ERROR.
Should have used stop loss months ago!
@@thomaskauser8978 I did. I always have a time where I will sell. Whether for a loss or gain but that is just a trailing stop.
@@thomaskauser8978 buy and hold is dead for the foreseeable future.
I enjoyed hearing Lance talk about stop losses. Good topic, Adam - dealing with the trading algorithms.
Lance is smart.
Interesting discussion on BlackRock et al getting into/investing in single family market, which has been going on for years mind you. My issue with PE (private equity) doing such things is they are not a 'business' per se. These are not business people, they are not entrepreneurs. They're PE, there's a difference. My personal experience with PE is they are pretty horrible at running/managing anything. Basically they acquire and in no short order screw it up. They look to extract as much value/cash flow as they possibly can and then dispose of the asset. This is bad, it's bad for everyone.
I bought PLTR when is slipped below $8. I am happy. There are some diamonds in the rough now. Cathy Wood keeps piling into the same stuff and driving them off of bottoms. I may buy ARKK if we have another major selloff. 20%+ or so.
Adam, please do a short video explaining inflation. Please explain the differences between cost-push and demand-pull inflation. Please explain how curtailing money supply will bring down energy costs, just as well as increasing energy supply.
Of course, inflation is a monetary phenomenon, but don’t shortages of fundamentally needed materials exacerbate inflation upon different segments of consumption?
Eg
Too much currency may inflate assets, while too little energy permeates shortages or higher input costs affecting consumption. Please clear up our poor, muddled, uneducated understanding of inflation.
Also labor disruptions…
It seems simplistic to just quote just a cute phrase by Milton Friedman. A man, whom I greatly respect.
Loved the presentation of ideas and discussion, keep up the great work.
Thanks Adam re: The I-Bond laddering (Gifting). All respect to Lance but they ain’t that complex, and principle is protected.
Tips waaay more complex.
Where do you buy I-Bonds
I tried txting but not a number?
With respect to stop-losses, I use Tradestops (I do not own any of this business).
Every time I have placed stop losses, I have regretted it. If you watch things daily, i find it’s better for me to just manually sell when/if I want.
Adam, I can highly recommend Michael Pento for an interview.
We need policy to return housing to a socially stable market. The problem with higher down payments is that banks will not make residential mortgage loans based on assets or equity, they demand income to debt ratios and credit ratings. This is nonsensical from a financial risk standpoint but it's driven by political risk. After 2008, politicians pressured banks not to foreclose on residential homes, even allowing mortgage holders to cease payments. This means lenders could not raid equity to recapture their loan values (with all the complications of securitization). And then they allowed these loans to be sold off to private equity while the Fed reflated assets. So the financial risk for lenders became whoever the government won't rescue. Yes, send checks to households and let them spend it at the mall!
How was the vacation Lance? 😄
Great show, competent and nice atmosphere with a good human chemistry between the 2 of you
Very informative. Very interested to hear Adam's opinion on gender identity I must say though
What is safe in chaos? Gold.
What can’t stay down below its current price? Silver.
Otherwise you’re having to read the “ticker” all night.
Consider a reverse mortgage while the government is still making them available, and diversify into other real property that’s going to be in demand when jobs are insecure.
Couldnt disagree more with Lance's view on what a Stop loss is (and how to use them): he said it is merely an indication of a level of resistance (says all the money mangers watching the same levels etc). What?? A stop loss is supposed to be the level YOU designate is your level of tolerance to lock in a profit or to close a position at a loss. Support and Resistance levels should be distinctly different and support / resistance levels (alone) that Lance says everyone is watching should never be how you manage your portfolio / position risk. If that is how Lance decides when to buy or sell based on technical support and resistance levels -- No thank you! I do agree on never leaving a live stop loss order out in the market, but you should (have) and follow a distinct set of trading rules and obey your tolerance. You can always get back in again.
Regular viewer here, love the Saturday recap. On houses - consider the trap that regular renters are in, how does one save for a 20% deposit while paying high rents, high gas, high food? Just not realistic. I scraped a 10% deposit together 15 years ago to get a better interest rate, but it was a major challenge, and that was on a high London salary, Lance, I love your insights, but your wrong on housing.
P.S. Adam, re: anti-trust - ABSOLUTELY
I disagree, nothing will ever be perfect, our personal and local circumstances are different, and even though it would make you buying a house more difficult because you can't save enough for the down payment, it would also make it less appetizing for these giga corporations to buy everything. Again, no solution will be perfect and maybe not everyone would benefit in the short term, but it's probably something that needs to be done. You in particular might not see the benefits immediately, but they would come.
Why would Lance assume no more MMT? I think they will pump to make obedient slaves.
Exactly. Plus I believe the Bankster Cabal (Davos/WEF criminals) are pushing very hard to actually blow up the system so they can implement their Great Reset!! Frankly the Cabal has been very public about their plan for totalitarian control of the planet. I find it stunning that people as seemly well informed as the Wealtheon crew are either ignorant of this threat or being purposely silent…. Are these guys so totally lost in the weeds that they have no broader perspective of the global financial system (and related history).
The most recent story which no one is talking about is BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) appear to have instituted their own currency.
An investment advisor who is soliciting new business should not have any hesitation in responding to a question about performance.
I wonder why REI does?
RIA
Well said Fred.
Yeah in my experience, stops are @#$& useless,the get hit and then the security switches direction
The takeaway from an 1,5h long discussion and the answer to the title’s question is - no one knows! Keep yours chins up folks and stick to rule number 1 - don’t lose any money 💰
Like - Done
Two big mistakes that most people are making right now: 1. Assuming the fed will pivot sooner than later. 2. Assuming that a pivot will be bullish when they do
Just wait until the FED gives a 100 basis point interest rate rise next week. Housing is collapsing. People are being unrealistic. I hate the term "bullish" in the current enviroment.
This is bullish for Blackrock. Bullish for most mega cap corporations. The implosion of asset prices and their subsequent purchase for pennies on the dollar is very bullish indeed. We are heading into neo feudalism and it is indeed very bullish for some.
Early last century, the banks funding mortgages were local and lending against local deposits, and everyone wanted safety.
Just heard that Russian missiles hit Ukraine port/grain center. The macro on this ag issue is critical, and people need to dig deeper than the daily financial headlines. This ag and fertilizer situation is very serious and there isn't going to be a "problem solved" switch.
All and all the market is still dominated by (retail)traders and not by investors. Real economic indicators are still trending downwards apart from stacking up consumer debts!
The trivialisation of passive indexing around the 30 minute mark is a little ridiculous. If this were true, then active fund managers could just buy the top 5-10 stocks in an s&p500 etf and expect to outperform both passive indexes and the market.
Given no active managers are outperforming indexes over meaningful time periods, it's hard to believe what Lance is saying there.
I just saw a job paying 8.25 to 9 dollars an hour on indeed ,and they said they can't find workers
Seems we need to be grateful here in South Africa, that our government retail bonds offer real returns.
That’s why you don’t use stops
The market makers see the stops
Couldn’t help it. Bought some PLTR calls lol
Leg up and then south, got it;-)
IDK, the weekly update is starting to sound the same, .I.e. market already has it in, it’s going up but it’s still going down, this is why you need me. But ibonds have some potential.
My take away is Lance is saying not clear what is going to happen, let’s wait for better signals. Good insight on thing though.
Italy has always been stratified by class. Today their big problem is aging demographics, which is why you can buy a house real cheap in Italy (1 euro houses) as long as it's not on the coast or in the center of the city..
The financialisation of residential property is a side-effect of the financial repression which has been enacted by the central banks over the last 40 years. People started looking to property as investment when they could no longer obtain decent yields on treasuries and annuities. The only thing that will fix the property market is a return to higher yields on bonds. Unfortunately that will also destroy the financial system which is encumbered with too much debt. We need a new financial system based on equity rather than debt, but that won't happen until the old one is destroyed.
Their discussion about there being SO many possible paths and scenarios for the economy and the markets reminds me of 2004/2005.
At that time, the economy was slow, Greenspan had been raising rates, the markets had been recovering but appeared to stall, oil was high, and then like now, there were a whole bunch of paths the thing could take. A lot of people were sitting on the sidelines waiting for another shoe to drop.
What finally happened was, Greenspan stopped raising rates, some growth in the economy resumed, and the markets breathed a big sigh of relief. Then in 206 and 2007, the markets rallied to new highs.
Granted the rally was short lived because the housing market collapsed in 2008. But the point is, the economic and financial outlook depends largely in the degree to which the Fed tightens and how long before he stops. That is really unpredictable right now, which was also the case back in 2004 and2005. But once we find out the Feds choices and the severity, we will know.
I like your thinking, but does the FED have that much power?
The Bear often seems to disappear- then suddenly mauls even more ferocious than the 1st attack.
The Risk at least for now doesn’t warrant the all in approach - the Reward seems negligible in relation.
Your example perhaps exemplifies the temporary gains that can be had vs the longer (3-5 year expectation).
I’m afraid that I’ve become very wary of all these future expectations of profit growth. And neither am I willing to enter a day trader/stock flipper scenario. (Perhaps that too will need to change?)
“Measure Twice - cut once” has through long experience proven to be wiser course. And not pushing the Buy button till the next day or even longer has also saved me from innumerable emotional knee jerks....so far.
Patience, patience. There is no such thing as a “once in a lifetime opportunity”
Good Investing Friend!
Let market forces truly take over, and the housing problems will get fixed. The Federal Reserve and government regulations have created problems.