Time To Trim Stocks & Start Buying Treasury Bonds, We're Still In A Bear Market Rally
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 ก.ย. 2024
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Lance Roberts of RIA Advisors joins Adam Taggart to summarize the notable developments in the financial markets over the past week.
In this week's episode, Lance maintains that we're still in a bear market rally -- so in light of recent gains, he recommends taking profits in stocks and to start building a position in long-dated US Treasury bonds.
Lance & Adam also discuss the future outlook for the real estate market as well as how to use position sizing correctly in building & rebalancing your portfolio.
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There’s no doubt that it's a very challenging time right now for the average investor. Above and beyond the recent economic impacts of COVID, the new era of record low interest rates, runaway US debt and US deficits, and trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus stimulus has changed the rules of investing by dangerously distorting the Dow index, the S&P 500, and nearly all other asset prices. Can prices keep rising, or is there a painful reckoning ahead?
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Another incredible show! Thank you so much Adam and Lance. You guys are so informative. Love the government insights (congress), lobbyist, economic knowledge, etc. The U.S. government has so deviated from what was originally intended. Thanks too, Adam, for the thoughtful questions and summaries! Thanks, Lance, for your ability to explain so clearly how the markets, money, TA all work.
"then you sell at the wrong time and hate yourself" 😂. Lance is hilarious. Hopefully you guys keep this segment going, it is my go to every week.
This is the best financial advice I get in the week, so much ground is covered, keep it going guys ….
I gave up on main stream media about a year ago.
I never thought I'd be watching economics updates every Friday, but I tune in every week for Lance
He's brilliant, you both are
Unfortunately i live in the UK, so I cant benefit from the financial advice you offer, but I will try and shop some support on Super
I'm also telling all my intelligent friends (some who do live in the US) about you
Thank you so much guys!!
you can't buy US equities??
He has advice that can be applied more generally like gold can be thought of as insurance. Ya buying foreign equities maybe harder with sanctions and the global risk
What if the bond vigilantes are finally awake again. The recent action looks like it. If so the next fed pivot could cause capital seeking safety to LEAVE long bonds and go to gold or crypto or just cash/short treasuries,or hoarding commidities. Maybe buying long bonds here is "fighting the last war"
❤ crypto is a good one
TXT my helpline above for exclusive strategies
Adam...I cannot underscore how much I appreciate that you've chosen to include some morality into your show. We don't get to see much of that (if any) anymore. I turn 67 years old tomorrow and, quite honestly, the most profound lesson I've learned thus far is that what this world needs, more than anything, is more good people. People that actually care for one another. I'm hoping you and Lance decide to integrate morality into your show as routine instead of the exception. I wrote a long rant on this topic and how you and Lance could capitalize and actually make a difference...but decided against sending it. Thank you guys for all you do. I love the show and never miss an episode. Respectfully, JO
Morality is good, and also way more subjective today.
But like my one finance professor years ago said. Being selfish and arbitraging helps mankind because price discovery and competition prevents bubbles and let’s people get better prices. The issue I see is we’re miles away today from a semi free market.
I think talking about capitalism and free markets is like morality since it’s for the benefit of everyone. Whereas today we live in creditism and assets being inflated by debt and inflation making the rich richer and workers get screwed even more. It’s been this way for 50 years. You want to talk about morality we should harp about following the constitution and using gold as money. That would fix a lot of societies problems and end most wars or stop them from getting starter. This channel is one of the few that actually talks about why gold is important.
Really great information! Thank you.
Thanks so much Adam for putting so much effort in creating quality content for us to consume!
Question for Lance Roberts. He said those who missed the market in the last decade are worse off than those who were invested and then saw a 50% drop in the market. But what if you get a 1930s drop with the DOW GOING FROM 380 to 40, 90%?
I believe it took 26 years to break even after 1929, but if you were about to draw on a pension it would destroy you
All wealthion material is great but the weekly updates are the most useful. Your back and forth is both informative and an easy listen.
These weekly chats are terrific. Would it be possible too spend some time on the "tools" that you use to follow the markets and what we should be using. For example, what industry charts should we subscribe to, and what services can the investor get to help provide ideas that are not simply stock touting?
If you say you are not traders then why are you trading all the time? You are just trying to time the market all the time and it never works in the long term. Everyone knows that. Also research clearly shows that professional investors don't beat the S&P500 over time anyway. So why spend a lot of money on an "financial advisor" when they are not worth it 9 out of 10 times?
Lance is the one side of the coin, while New Harbor is more into wealth preservation (I am a client). John mentioned that in the previous weekly video, the other day. They do go into positions sometimes short term, but they protect long term positions using options. Mike and John are Certified Financial Planners and they are aware of taxes, I believe. I think these 2 different commentaries give you both approaches every week....
Really enjoyed all these TA videos but not sure about this one. Extremely confident predictions. Recession then Fed pivot to QE again. What about inflation? Also, bonds are in a bubble, they are not cheap. Wary about anyone who confidently predicts anything. The best analysts talk in terms of probabilities and scenarios. Bring on a Volcker!
Can't go Volker with the current US debt
Thanks mate
what is the thought on high grade munis? Many in your audience are in high tax brackets
The dollar is going up via the dollar index but it’s purchasing power is going down, albeit slower then the Yen or Euro. The dollar is going down against the Brazilian Real and the Australian and Canadian dollar, perhaps you should be investing there, but unless you are a savvy investor with your face glued to your computer, I’d stay clear of bonds.
Highlight of the week. So great!
Always enjoy your show. Good discussion at the end about politics. Now I feel that despite all the deficiencies Trump policies was Good for Americans
Why not get into UUP if the dollar is going up
I look forward to this segment each week, thank you so much!!
Wake up call for USA, Canada, UK Europe.
[insert buying Treasury meme]
Cracked - down against aluminati is the urgent needs of time.
Not sure that I understand you two completely, but really good information fellas. Just an average Joe here in South Carolina trying to preserve retirement accounts. I really enjoy the simplified info. Watch several youtubers but I trust you twos advice the most!
This is some "the big short" movie phenomenon going on in the market
Treasury bonds? Seriously????🤣😂😆
Great stuff as usual guys. Older millennial here, holding my breath and building up cash for this housing market correction. 🤞 Tons of things to comment on, but since you asked: Oil will be huge going forward. It's not disappearing and being replaced by a color. Love to hear what you have to say on that in the near future. Also, uranium is humanity's future, but how far away do you believe the inevitable major bull run is, all things considered?
3rd
His long bond call was made at higher prices. Until bonds rally and yields fall, Lance is in the doghouse🐶
perhaps, but Lance called the ripping, bear rally that began in earnest9 trading days ago... he gets full marks on that "call" for a bounce, however irrational it may have sounded at the time
hey, so US has not been taking someone else's money like Malaysia did ? how many examples do you need ??? remember Russia's reserves, Afghanistan money freeze, Venezuela money freeze, UK tribunals assert Guaido gold, Iran ... who people have mirrors at home ?
oh the poor lobbyists being hounded to pay to get exactly what they want to pay for! boo hoo
Adam doesn't want to come back now that he has that pool haha
True
You asked about TLT….is that what he is buying now?
If you are China, you may now be a bit nervous about owning dollars after having seen Russia loosing all theirs in an instant.
Dislike
Another great video
Thank you Lance
Thank you Adam 😊
These weekly sessions are great. Lance and adam connect and cover such important topics, thx guys
Adam, Lance love this show . Lance is spot on with his technical analysis’s. I have learnt so much . I trade and invest in Releastate , cryptos and equities and I watch study a lot off this stuff constantly. Lances experience and this show is the very top. Thank you guys from an Australian investor and technical trader.
I very much appreciated the conversation on macro currency. Please dig into it more with Lance because his level headed, no sky is falling, attitude while recognizing the real dangers. Early subscriber before the channel went live. If I could subscribe twice I would.
I look forward to hearing from Lance every week. The fact that he shares my views about long bonds (one of the few people in the space who do) is a an added bonus.
Thank you for another great weekly wrap-up. As for the political rants, they have become part and parcel of economic life which just goes to show how warped the world has become. I sadly don't think that will change unless societies become so damaged that voters around the globe demand it.
Learned so much as usual, whether from part of your planned agenda or an unplanned rant! I also liked Lance's reference to his dad's advice, I'll have to use that one myself when appropriate. Interested in the fiat vs real money show, and the political system re how lobbyists work show if you decide to do them. 🍻
How bout a long TIPS vs a long regular bond? If the fed has to pivot, couldn't inflation skyrocket?
loved the political talk. I don't know an economist that is also liberal lol
Insightful as ever, thanks!
Adam....... great presentation but we forgot to put a war , less globolization and reduced commodity supply in the equation. All 3 increase inflation=risk , the fed's strenght is greatly reduced .
Hats off to both of you! I appreciated Lance's review of position sizing. It would be great if he could also discuss his overall sizing and allocation in various segments of the market, e.g., domestic stocks, developed market, emerging market, metal commodities, agricultural commodities, various classes of bonds, etc.
Well explained. Even I understand it. THANX for posting.
Great video again guys and thanks so much. I hope your kids find El Corazon while you are there Adam.
Absolutely brilliant discussions. The Topics were perfect!
Would be great if lance would tell us some books recommendations ?
Like top 5 ?
Excellent show. Enjoyed the discussion at the end
Colombia is a family vacations destination ? I think i missed some parts
Your show is the highlight of my week! Very informative and well presented in a language that retail investors with limited understanding of the financial system can understand . Adam and Lance are so well spoken and balanced in their views. Kudos to both of you!
Wow you living da life in Columbia! Sweet!
Would love to hear what you and Lance think about the potential consequences of Saudi Arabia selling oil to China and accepting Yuan instead of Dollars. After all Saudi is pissed at Joe (Iran Deal) and refusing to talk to him. I believe this would lead to a much quicker demise of the Dollar, especially if other Nations follow suit. Too many potentials to consider for my shallow mind.
Dollar is much stronger than you can believe. Is the tallest man in the dwarf room obviously, but as a fiat currency, is the strongest.... no matters geopolitics.
AMC all the way this season! APES and BULLS will beat the BEARS!
Why buy bonds as rates are rising, and especially long term bonds??
Your comment on the operation of the US senate is most germain in that the Senate depends totally on influence peddling to operate. Biden is the influence peddler extraordinaire.
The Senate is broken because of the 16th and 17th constitutional amendments. The senate was designed to prevent overspending because it represented the taxapayers before the 16th amendment: The states were the taxpayers, not persons. The senators were elected by the state legislatures to represent their interests in controlling the money taken from state taxes. The senators were never under the influence of lobbyists or influence other than that of the state legislatures to balance their sovreign budgets. They could spend 6 years essentially free of day to day lobbyist, big corporation, big labor, elitist, academic, foreign and NGO interest. Amazing how that works. This is the method that the founders had right.
The progressives at the beginning of the 20th century tore this all down to institute communism. Yes, communism has been established as the foundation of the US economy. It was done through the direct income tax that skirted the taxation of the states. What is communism? It is simply "from each according to his abilities, to each according to their need". Tell me that this is not the income tax. Show me how the income tax and its dispersal is not communism. I have very large, quite sensitive ears and can hear even the tiniest notions.
Also remember the phrase "no controlling legal authority" used by Al Gore to flaut campaign finance laws. The same idea has been used in subsequent elections to take this idea to the max. Amazing what a small idea does to destroy all faith in a nation and its laws.
So politics needs to return to the states so that when states and spending become errant, there is a controlling legal authority: the state legislatures.
Great conversation. Thanks
Thanks again guys, excellent insight. It seems now when I see something weird happening in the markets during the week, in the back of my mind I am thinking: don't worry Lance and Adam will explain it on Friday.
Why bonds instead of gold?
Adam, could you in your next few weekly “talks with Lance” (especially since these talks are not only concerned about Macro but weekly fluctuations) and ask whether the possible final inflows from IRA contributions before April 15, might cause temporary cash inflows that might cause an additional spiking in the S&P?
Lance had mentioned that Quarterly reports are due soon from Mutual Fund companies which have to report on their (for example) a 60/40 fund and that might also temporarily charge the S&P as well.
Just wondering....
Yes...April tends to be bullish for equities. However, predicting that far out is difficult with any accuracy. Let's get through next week and see where we are.
Great show as usual, thanks guys
more ! keep up the good work !!!!
Bought bonds yesterday
Haha Great timing!
The day before Bond Armageddon
I can't get enough of this channel
Adam, if you have time go check out the Blue Apple Beach Club. You hire a small boat to take you there on the island just off of Cartagena. You can go just for the day, well worth it!
Lance is a no-nonsense and cunning risk manager. Love the gardening analogy. However:
- There can be no Fed pivot until inflation is lower than 3%.
Some data - is pointing to double-digit inflation later this year. I would like to hear Lance's best 3-year forecast of the market with: 5% inflation 5% Fed rate.
The market will break before the Fed ever gets to 5%, which will force (politically) their hand to pivot. Eventually, a massive wealth transfer is coming. The current regime is not sustainable.
@@mario198187701 Unfortunately that's just a tired out talking point. There were people saying the Fed was going to pivot - before the March meeting... Someone even told me the market would "break" with a .25 hike.
Until inflation comes down to 2%, there can be no pivot. Not unless unemployment spiked.
They want inflation, to erode the debt.
Great discussion!
Lance is the best.
Great video!!!
Thanks
A key question for the next weekly review: Lance, how about the FED QT pouring bonds on the market: isn't it going to take the bonds price much lower? Thank you for your top quality weekly review. Franck
Another good review and insightful discussion (despite some dive into politics and I would prefer you didn't attribute blame for either of the major parties - there is more than enough blame to go around and it just feeds the great divide.) Thank you Adam and Lance. Question: Lance says everything is overbought and in a bubble but.....precious metals?
Plz try to arrange more show on risk management...hardly people discuss...today some inside..thanks
Lance is right. We need 1 bill that is for 1 item only. Front of page explains the bill. The reverse side details how the bill will be funded. No funding = no bill. Our current system of passing laws is antiquated, broken and only benefits the wealthy people of this country. Policy should be made that pursues the best interests of the country.
Great video.great portfolio review. All constructive and accurate info. In a social media world where hype and fear are pushed, wealthion helps me keep my feet on the ground and my head clear. Thanks guys.
Loved the discussion on portfolio sizing. Amy recommendations for software that can keep track of position sizing when an investor has multiple accounts at different brokerages?
I've started looking at bonds now. Wow, I can't believe I wrote that. Mind you, I've been told that your portfolio needs something in it that you hate....
In discussing rule of law, Lance seems to have forgotten about FDR abrogating gold clauses when he devalued gold.
Bro don’t worry; the dollar is king!
It may be getting a bad rap @ the moment; I’m very bullish on the mighty dollar 🚀
Another great interview, Adam. Quick question: How do we change it back to where congress votes on one bill?
I don't mind you talking about politics. It is the single biggest problem the US faces.
Oh yes.....share buy backs.....what are the short term and long term consequences......is there any history of that?
There's no stupider financial decision a person could make than loaning the US government money and those who do deserve to lose everything.
Gracias por otro excelente video lleno de información interesantísima y actualizada. Muchísimas gracias por venir a Colombia, mi tierra, y visitar a Cartagena, una preciosa ciudad, que espero hayas disfrutado mucho. Un abrazo grande!!!
Informative right to the end and unfortunately we don't talk about it enough to keep people educated enough to make a difference with reference to the tail end of the discussion
Subscribed. Love these segments.
Very interesting talk about position size and carrot harvesting :-) You gotta take the profit when it's there. Then again you might regret. But that's the game
Do a deeper dive discussion on the bond investing front. Several of the Fed insiders and individuals involved with the Fed have revealed they shifted into Municipal Bonds with significant portions of their savings -- and I clearly see two possibilities, either they really know what they are doing because they have an insiders playbook open to them, or they are as clueless as they seem to be regarding 'oh printing cash is not inflationary it is the supply chain fault'. I get the tax benefits of Munis but what else is in those specifically and bonds in general that makes these other individuals so interested in them? Rising interest rates are generally bad for bonds.
What about that movie with the good looking guy getting mauled by the bear?
Still watching Frank G Melbourne Australia 🇦🇺
cash is definitely not a "risk free" hold currently.
Love it!
How about money is NOT speech bros?
Buy Bitcoin. All the rest is noise and speculation
Investing and geopolitics are interrelated. More please!
Cheering wildly as the politicians were roasted.