Sell The Bounce? Downside Risks To Stocks Still Loom
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 ก.ย. 2024
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Lance Roberts of RIA Advisors joins Adam Taggart to summarize the notable developments in the financial markets over the past week.
At Wealthion, we show you how to protect and build your wealth by learning from the world’s top experts on finance and money. Each week we add new videos that provide you with access to the foremost specialists in investing, economics, the stock market, real estate and personal finance.
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There’s no doubt that it's a very challenging time right now for the average investor. Above and beyond the recent economic impacts of COVID, the new era of record low interest rates, runaway US debt and US deficits, and trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus stimulus has changed the rules of investing by dangerously distorting the Dow index, the S&P 500, and nearly all other asset prices. Can prices keep rising, or is there a painful reckoning ahead?
Let us help you prepare your portfolio just in case the future brings one or more of the following: inflation, deflation, a bull market, a bear market, a market correction, a stock market crash, a real estate bubble, a real estate crash, an economic boom, a recession, a depression, or another global financial crisis.
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IMPORTANT NOTE: The information and opinions offered in this video by Wealthion or its interview guests are for educational purposes ONLY and should NOT be construed as personal financial advice. We strongly recommend that any potential decisions and actions you may take in your investment portfolio be conducted under the guidance and supervision of a quality professional financial advisor in good standing with the securities industry. When it comes to investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.
I appreciate the round view of upside potential with downside risk. Not just bullish or bearish
Wealthion’s content has been killing it lately. Best in class on TH-cam. Rational, fact-based, and insightful. Thanks so much.
Totally the best financial channel on YT. Delivering actual info retail investors can use. Without the shilling. Thanks so much.
Yes to pre-conversations or hidden files! would be interesting.
I second that!
@@erinsmith824 I third that!
The fun part begins when the yield curve inverts..
And creates havoc when it un-inverts!
Eurodollar futures curve already did once. Not sure what transition from LIBOR will do.
The 20, 30 year treasury already inverted
This weekly sessions should become a credited courses. I don’t catch everything like college days in the classroom but knowledge accumulation may make me a wise person. Maybe!!
Really good stuff here! I love Lance Roberts, thank you so much for creating this series! can't wait fo the next one!
Initial candid conversation would be good to include. 👍
Always interested in BLOOPERS
Hi Adam- some other of your analysts, including some of the ones at your wealthion conference, have mentioned moving into bonds as a hedge going forward, like Lance is mentioning. Danielle DiMartino Booth had mentioned also about Municipal Bonds in some cities performing very well. Would you be interested in doing an explainer video about those? I would like to learn more about bonds and I really trust the content you provide here on Wealthion. Thank you for your consideration.
These are becoming my fave vids of the week
Hell yes, we want the pre recording stuff !!
I WANT the BLOOPER REEL!!!
If the pre-conversations are gold. Imagine how good the pre-pre-conversations will be.
Great way to listen to the wise not to feel bad about my portfolio 😂 thanks as always!
This was one of the best episodes
Great info!!! Sums up my thoughts. Thanks!!!
2nd comment I saw something about shorting, toxic selling and algos not preventing rapid down slides. Any thing to this?
Great episode
Mr Robert's should talk to Bill Fleckenstein about bonds.
This is NOT 2018. It's closer to 450AD
etf corn, weat and soyb will make you rich
My call is head and shoulders down to 3600ish. 100% of voters are hurt by inflation while less than 100% of voters hurt by a market crash.
4th
Good interview, but please give more room to the guests. It's OK to summarize key points, but excessive commentary really takes away! Thanks
Wealthion has become my number one channel to watch for financial content. I can't thank you enough Mr. Taggart for the effort you put it ! Best regards from your biggest fan from Brazil.
Oi Brasileiro! Where do you live? I lived in Brasil, great country, great people!
@@dixiederivatives Hi there! Happy to hear you've enjoyed being here. I live in the southern region!
@@LeoOnealProductions Porto Alegre?
The best part of this channel is that they make things understandable. Thank you.
Always interesting to hear Lance’s perspective on the market!
One or another Federal agency can and almost certainly will prevent the market from undergoing a complete collapse. The one thing that could destroy the market is what Jeremy Grantham calls an “exogenous event,” or what others have called a “black swan” event. Possible exogenous events in the near future are a Russian invasion of Ukraine, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, or both invasions happening simultaneously. Other possible exogenous events could be an outbreak of a full-scale war between Israel and her enemies, led by Iran; or a war between India and a Pakistani-Chinese alliance; or the outbreak of a major new plague brought on by a new pathogen even more deadly than CV19-2. Several such pathogens have been reported and/or anticipated in recent days in isolated outbreaks, or as possible evolutions of for-now relatively harmless pathogens.
Adam and Lance, you guys don't know how us retail investors appreciate this weekly recaps! Priceless! 🙏
Lance is among your most interesting guests.
Great content.
Thanks and greetings from good old Europe
Great interview with Lance Roberts. To boil down what he was saying - This is not the time to be certain about anything. Volume is an indicator we should all be watching.
Another excellent chat. Thank you for the generous sharing of information, i have no doubt this channel will keep adding viewers!!
Wealthion B-Sides Unplugged
In the 1980s, Fed Volker held wall street by the balls. Today, though, wall street holds Fed Powell by the balls.
Come March, we will see if Powell (and by association, Biden) has the (ahem) balls to stand up to wall street and do what's best for America (and millennials, Gen Z).
I put the odds in favor of wall street, not the Fed.
Totally on board with not owning FB lol
Great show
For context purpose .
Facebook lost in a night , around a third of the “old” bail out of the 🇺🇸 banks in 2008 that was though to be unimaginable amount of money at that time .
That is how far money printing went since then in a little over a decade !
When the dominos start falling ….
Gold here we come !
One of the best interviews I have seen in a while, He gave reasonable expectations on how to best handle a volatile market.
Seem Mike green was dead right .
As passive investing grows in aggregate, volatility to the downside will increase overtime since not many active buyer will be there to buy on the downside .
Seem Facebook got A taste of that .
Great and I for one would love to hear much more about bonds:)
I enjoy Lance's commentary and I find it useful. Great guest.
I love this series, very insightful!
Very good interview with some very well reasoned technical analysis. The contrarian question is a huge one. Most analysts are expecting the Fed to come roaring in to the rescue when / if the markets sell off 25 to 30%. A contrarian view is that the Fed won't be able to do that because of inflation, and that's where we will probably get a bigger sell off as Jeremy Grantham is predicting. His long term channel going back decades has the US market in a super bubble of 3 standard deviations from the mean. Just to get back into the channel from these massive highs will see a bigger sell off than 25 or 30%. The contrarian view is that the Fed will not be able or willing to do a 2018 / 2020 pivot. Another contrarian position is that the huge tech companies will sell off more than 25% because most people think they won't or can't sell off by that much. 'They are too big and successful..', etc, etc. Antitrust legislation?
Sure markets are obviously expensive, but the biggest contrarian view as said in this and and in a previous interview with David Hunter, is the market could still go up to a blow off top as the FED chickens out of it's hawkish stance - worrying about tigening into a recession...Nobody knows and has a crystal ball and Nobody blows a whistle at the top. IMO/NA
So everyone will liquidate into real negative +6% interest government bonds. Genius!
@@bob.bishop If you take the real inflation rate as calulated by Shadow Stats, the negative real yield on the 30 year US Treasury is around -12 / -13 %.
@@bob.bishop yes exactly. What you need in this environment are *quality* assets and gov bonds are NOT quality assets! Just MO
@@bob.bishop
Well -6% temporary lost in bonds is better than losing a 30-50% in stocks during a crash ?
And u can get some gold if not treasuries .
Frankly, you do a wonderful job with this channel!
Release the hidden files lol
Markets are hollowed out.... Dollar hollowed out
Excellent interviews. My favorite channel. 👍 Keep up the great work.
People are talking about a crash, however, very few are selling or rebalancing their portfolios.
A 4% bounce from the lows isn't being correct a bounce. Being correct the bounce would be if we start up trending again and get back above key MA's on institutional buying volume. Short covering isn't correct a bounce. Bounces need to be correctly identified as short covering or new money coming in and his definition is too generic and general that most could easily get correct.
More people know what to look for now since 2000 and 2008 crashes is the reason why everyone is bearish. So I don't think that argument holds up anymore of you should be bullish because everyone is bearish. Besides it's the smart money that is bearish not the dumb money they are all still bullish. So more are bullish the market still because they are the ones who buy on the pullback all of the time. It's the retail crowd that you want to be contrarian to and they are all bullish.
It’s a big assumption that if the fed does not hike or backs off a couple hikes that the market will react favourably…
If bearish trader sentiment is a contrarian indicator now, why wasn't the overwhelmingly bullish sentiment in the prior 7 quarters a yellow flag? If fear in the market is a bullish indicator, that suggests the fear isn't warranted and those who are fearful are either misinformed or just plain stupid. That's not saying capitulation isn't a worthwhile indicator. But sentiment isn't usually misplaced.
Love Lance. I could listen to him all day long.
Wealthion "Hidden Files"? What a great idea.
These weekly updates are very good. Love the no-man’s-land explanation. And I’d love the in depth on the marginal buyer.
Blooper reel definitely
Love these weekly chats
My vote for “hidden files” :)
Don't mind the length at all. In fact, would watch even if it went for 2+ hrs
I do find these interviews very informative at the end of the week, please keep doing them
blooper reel? sounds wonderful!
Bonds are not gaining value in extreme inflation scenario
Yesss!! Show us your hidden files!
For a single income family making a little less than median income, last year's stimmy could easily have been 10% or more of their income for the year.
Hi Adam. One thing I would like Lance to address relates to his short positions using SH and SDS. In looking at those offerings, and how they differ from say a short like SQQQ. They seem far riskier, not just because they are 2x or 3x inverse, but because they are structured to “beat” the index on a daily basis, versus over the longer haul. I’m not sure I totally understand what that means. But my takeaway is if one is going to short an index with SH or SDS or a similar ETF it needs to be monitored very closely. Thanks.
I'm pretty sure that Zuckerberg read/watched Ready Player One and thought: "That's a great idea!"
Inflation is over 10% and interest rates are below 2%. We're probably going to melt up ☝️
I do like Lance however, Thinking that it's not going to crash just because people think it's going to crash, could be the biggest mistake you ever make
The fed will have no choice. They can just sit there and try to lower rates, but the bond market will force their hands. They can cut and cut, but the bond market will over rule them. Where are they going to cut from zero?
Hidden files great ideas
You can piffle around and go against or with the major narrative, at the end it is all speculative.
Exhausting times to follow the markets. All the same I’d rather be working hard and humbly strategizing than blissfully unaware. Programs like yours have me, again humbly, feeling more like I’m a setting a trap versus about to walk into one. Maybe we lose the tip of our tail but avoid the poison?
0.5 raise isn't enough. You got ez money for years , you either did something with it or it is too late.
Yes please show us the chats before the show, the hidden files would be great.
Love Lance! I’m in Houston and I listen to his show daily.
He is correct that we still had stimulus and tax credits that are going bye bye for 4th qtr earning.
Euro Futures Still Inverted and 2 & 10s compressed to the 60s range heading down fast.
Great interview with Lance...David Hunter...the clock is ticking
Thank you. Excellent interview, excellent insights, looking forward to more!
Hi Adam, this is the best weekly show!! Lance is exellent !Please let him comment on technical analysis of gold / silver, Thank you
Thanks. Really appreciate this weekly show.
Thank you, Adam and Lance 🙏
New subscriber and enjoyed the interview
Thanks SO MUCH for doing these at the end of each week!!!
Bit Pop FTW
The preamble would be great :)
We'd happily take a blooper reel!
Great wisdom. Thanks.
Give us the blooper reels!
Hidden file takes…love it!
He likes Treasury Bonds...in an inflationary world....
Treasuries are a true safe haven. No matter the yield when equities are crashing treasuries will rise then you can rebalance into equities. Always good to have some safe havens in your portfolio.
@@Ryan_Tinney Yes, I guess if you want to buy the 2 year Treasury at 1.31%, you'll only lose 4% to inflation, which is better than enduring a stock market crash where you'll lose 10% on top of inflation. Are Treasuries really a safe haven?, I'm not sure who, besides the Fed, is buying the 10 year Treasuries....it's so counter-intuitive and visually bad, it just might be the perfect place to-be.
@@paulsommerhalder9049 When you have more money than you can spend a guaranteed return on your principal is nice. Also if you are not in the US is also is a hedge against your home country currency, very similar to why many people buy Swiss treasury bonds. There are many people who have enough money to live on and just want their principle safe. Yes I surely would love higher rates on my safe assets but that is just not the world we have at the moment. But in a well diversified portfolio having that negative correlation to equity will really feel good if and when the stock market goes through hell.
Excellent commentary!
Isn't U.S. GDP projected at like 1% for Q1 and literally almost all companie's earning s call over the last few months are projecting less growth in 2022. Add that in with the FED trying to tame inflation. Hedge accordingly.
Do you think that the IRS change of reporting rules also affected PayPal's stock price?
Dear Adam, Thank you and team for the great and useful content!
May I ask few questions? Local finance experts in Russia are talking a lot about geo politics as the on of main possible risk for markets, not only for local but US and world also. What do you think? How geo politics can impact for US economy?
I convinced, that digital transfarmation and pandemic axelerated grow rate of new retail inverstors around of the world. In Russia buy stocks became very popular and easy to do via smartphone.
What is impcact of new international retail investors around of the world for US stocks market?
Thank you!)
Great guest,
Adam, you rock!
Yo Adam do you guys have any wealthion Merch? I appreciate this channel a lot and would like to support.
Thanks for the kind sentiment, Aric. We don't, at least not yet. And TBH, the best way to support us is to take prudent steps to improve your financial situation -- that's why we created Wealthion. Or if you're already in good shape money-wise, introduce someone who isn't to our content.
But out of curiosity, what W merch would you be most interested in having?
I would for sure sport a wealthion hoodie and coffee mug!
Thanks
How we can purchase corporate bonds?
Great show
For context purpose .
Facebook lost a third of the bail out need it if the 🇺🇸 banks in 2008 .
That is how far money printing went ….
Gold here we come !