We believe next week's Fed rate hike will be the last: MacroPolicy Perspectives' Julia Coronado
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 20 ก.ค. 2023
- Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives founder and president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's rate hike campaign, what to expect from the Fed next week, and more. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: cnb.cx/2NGeIvi
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I feel like her comments will age poorly. Crude oil is already picking up, and June 2022 was peak cpi, so wont be favorable in the yoy comparisons. In other words base effects were very favorable last several cpi prints to make it look great, not anymore. Rates going past 6% imo. We willl
Nobody is talking about big government spending (Ukraine/No return, bloated bureaucracy) and the currency war that is coming (China/BRICS). We just passed a billion or so dollars to fight this Ukraine war and China is already figuring out that they've been tricked all these years by using the Dollar for transactions. Yes, Wall St has opened some new supplies and switched their positions but this is just the beginning overall. Remember that inflation has 5 factors interest rates, monetary policy, supply chain, and fluctuations in demand for goods and services. The inflation rate is the only thing that is easily measured. Inflation is a byproduct of all of these factors combined
airlines is notoriously volatile in the inflation prints. Cars have been expected to decline for months and it didn't until now. What is she talking about that new factors are now working for the Fed? I would say these were all expected by the Fed to happen, just much later than they expected.
The main reason why CPI was cooler this month (just like July last year by the way), is mainly due to COVID recovery messing with the seasonal adjustment factors. CPI also benefited from quirks in medical cost, which will reverse and go the other way by September.
Food inflation, housing, margin squeeze, its coming. Bottom is in for commodities now. If consumers pick up pace. But i think consumers are tapped. But we have the narrative of growth. So commodity prices ho higher, while jobs decline slowly but surely.
They should pause, then again, hiking will be just to lower sooner.
Regarding the CPI numbers, which is a year-over-year increase/decrease data expressed in %. Highs of 2022 came in above 9% YoY in the same period we now are getting an YoY CPI increase of roughly 3%.
INFLATION has increased roughly 3% from last years high reading of above 9% (highest yoy reading in what 40 years or so?), inflation is not decreasing, it is still increasing to higher levels compared to the pre-covid "normal" times.. Look at the flat price increase of goods and services compared to pre-covid, yoy increases in % is not the correct way to think about this whole inflation matter i think.
There must be some real "inflationary" numbers expressed in a better fashion than a yoy increase/decrease behind the scenes for the FED to interpret, i think.
For inflation to actually cool off to the levels we know and feel comfortable with (pre-covid prices), CPI numbers actually needs to come in at negative numbers month after month for some time. Still a long way for that to be happening it seems, due to the high salary increases and strong labour markets. We will see and feel the effect next year it seems.
Any growth will be inflationary. Already seeing oil prices climb. 3.50. Wont be long before we see 4.50 again at the pumps.
What world is she living in ! Inflation on food jumped 25 percent and insurance 40 percent !
The consumer price index formula keeps being changed to massage the numbers in their favor. Cough cough.
Fed will hike more! 😂
Your wrong
Buy Bitcoin
Don’t believe anything
hike until inflation is below 2%