Stanley Druckenmiller: The Fed should get rid of forward guidance and just do their job
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 พ.ค. 2024
- Stanley Druckenmiller, Duquesne Family Office chairman and CEO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, interest rate outlook, impact of AI technology, government spending and President Biden's economic policies, latest market trends, and more.
With inflation at 3.70%, I'm looking to enter the market now and ride it out as the economy improves. I'm putting together a $350,000 portfolio with Stocks and ETF's. Do you have any recommendations with solid cash flow?
we shouldn't act on every forecast. It is best you speak with a market expert before making any investment decisions.
You're right, I and a few Neighbors in Bel Air Area work with an advisor who prefers we DCA across other prospective sectors. Instead of a lump sum purchase, Following this, my portfolio grew 40% in the last quarter.
Hello thanks for your response, I'm curious to give this a try. Please who is your advisor and how do I get in touch?
Well, I chose Amber Dawn Brummit as my advisor after her interview on CNBC In 2020. She is SEC regulated with offices in the US and quite frankly a genius with portfolio diversification.
I just found her webpage and read through her educational background and qualifications, which were all very impressive. So I scheduled a call with her.
Making sense on CBNC. Telling the Fed to Shut up. Agree.
Thats the dumbest thing I have ever heard. While we all know it to be true, is that really gonna happen? NO of course not... so really listening to this was a huge waste of time. Time that could have been spent to learn a new trading set up, or a new risk managment process, or maybe reading a book on the Bond Market... Huge waste of time. Remember the two most important things you have is time and health, Next is family and friends. Everything else is cherries on top. Don't waste your time.
@@bpb5541 ur comment was a waste of time writing and me reading it.
@@Xyz99899 and that is why I am going to take your money. I thank you in advance.
I foresaw the housing crisis and sold my property. I then put it in the market, about $200,000 of it. That was late February. I've lost more than 40% of my portfolio's value. It makes me really sad. How can I turn this situation around?
This is really sad. If you're not who understands strategies to invest in the market, why not seek a financial advisor to help you grow your portfolio?
Having an investment advisor is the best way to go about the stock market right now. I’ve been in touch with a coach for a while now mostly and I made over 95% profit within a short time.
Having an investment advisor is the best way to go about the stock market right now. I’ve been in touch with a coach for a while now mostly and I made over 95% profit within a short time.
Don't necessarily look for a quick fix. Learn, learn, learn how to invest wisely for the long term and start now. You don't have to make it back the way you lost it. Look to the wisdom of Warren Buffett - lots of good books out there. Be patient and you will recover. I lost a large amount of money to fraudulent operators in real estate, much more than your entire capital. I'm recovering now and feel very good about the future as long as I don't make more big mistakes. As Charlie Munger once said, "It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent." The sooner you start doing things right and the more patient you become with a long-term time horizon, the better off you'll be.
Michael Caine sure knows a lot about the economy
yeah...what Stanley said.
One of the few guests who speaks good sense in this show
Damn. Most straightforward guest CNBC has had on in a hot minute. Get him on more.
Stanley Druckenmiller is the best.
Any specific guide. I'm from Australia how do I go about this? I think I'm interested how can I get in touch with mrs Rose Carlos?
There is her line👇👇
┼.. 🇺🇲
1254..
6241..
225..
The average citizen feels that costs are rising much faster for them.
Thank you Mr. Stanley for your State of the Union Address. Very Very Helpful and Informative. God's Blessings!
Well said Stan
This guy knows what he is talking about
So do I. I know what I talk about. AMA
Sure, he does! ( You make me laugh 😂😂😂😂).
Stanley is correct about allot of things.
Seriously, Fed has become a clown show. They need to just shut up and do their job.
Couldn't agree more with Stanley
They actually shut up and let him talk
Love this guy!
The root problem is fiscal
Pls elaborate? Very interested. Thanks
The fed didn't t seem to take into consideration the massive fiscal response to Covid.
The Fed isnt the problem. Its congress and HOW they spend money.
It's Yellen's problem. Monetary policy only deals with stable prices and stable jobs.. The hands out and climate subsidies and Warfare are not JayPow business. He's on top lines to reduce money supply but Yellen would pour back extra change despite the record high fiscal deficit..
All in all is still Yellen's fault
@@ssuwandi3240 She is just rubber stamps what every she is told to do. Just a Yes man.
Stan talks I listen!
Exactly. Powell is very political.
The point of fed communication is it permits them to have an effect on the economy without actually doing monetary policy. If it goes the wrong way you can always compensate with real monetary policy if it goes right it permits you to stir the economy without using your actual weapons. It’s genius tbh
Drunkenmiller for fed chair!!
FED said forecasting a recession last year. Then the FED said 6 Rate Cuts for this year in December. I don’t know if I’d call them experts at this point. More like uncle Jim at the BBQ after 3 millers.
"For the good of the country... the Fed chair should do"... says Druckenmiller. How about this Stan... maybe we should re-think the Federal Reserve altogether bud. Has it been successful since its inception? Does an entity so systemically important to the global financial system that operates in complete opaqueness be something we desire? Is even allowing an entity with so much unilateral power beneficial to the long term of humanity? Failure to criticize, at a deep fundamental level, those who rule the rulers doesn't sound like a democracy so much anymore does it?
total agree. He just tell harsh truth. Nobody want to learn harsh truth in the wonderful lala land Everyone want to live in alice wonderland (i.e Economy )
Jerome Powell needs fired. it's time for him to go.
the Dow posted its longest winning streak of the year, the wish to buy a home survey hit a record low. And making a bad situation worse, apartment renters expect rents to increase by 9.7 percent over the next year… as their earnings can’t even keep up with inflation.
Yep
The 🐐
Druckenmiller confirms what we already suspected namely an important Fed role is to provide family office welfare. Firstly Bill Ackman gives the green light via his infamous Oct 24 “We covered our bond short” tweet. Then “Santa JP” ensures it’s an especially wonderful Xmas with his Uber dovish December pivot speech thus ensuring much liquidity for family offices to exit this short term but very profitable trade. Remember Druck thought he might sit in the position a while but thanks to JP it was a flipper.
Unfortunately the fed is all about talking the markets into believing what they will do as a strategy to obtain their objectives without actually doing it and the market rallies. Inflation is basically the feds ultimately goal.
Talking his book
This is a great point. It's like the casino owner keeps churning out false rewards. Not helpful
The best macro position is xau/jpy since 1999, know who's talking about it and who's ignoring it
Why get rid of them? People like Kashkari can’t be a TV celebrity anymore if they’re not allowed to talk.
I had the thought as a kid that things be better once I’m grown up because children can behave and think badly. I was wrong, the world of adults is worse. There is a lot of posturing of insight and wisdom on the part of people with gray hair, but they are not actually mature.
forward guidance is part of inflation control - setting expectations is part of the job
Blah blah blah. Government is terrible at everything.
@@JimmyGoldberg-ux8ik quality and nuanced response, thanks for that
If people use common sense and understand that inflation is the expansion of the money supply, then the sources are simple- credit expansion and government deficit spending. Inflation originates in Washington DC.
what financial conditions does he track
Ask AI will the market go up or down next week.
Inflation put me in the poor house instead of middle class.
7:04. Yep. Utter nonsense but what will the talking heads do then....
When Fed hawkish market not reacting and when Fed is dovish maket takes the benefits.
I’m buying NVIDIA
Forward guidance is just used to manipulate the market
Juxtaposing a bunch of variables and coming to a conclusion. He does not have a crystal ball. Nobody knows how the economy is going to behave following monetary and fiscal policy decisions. There are too many variables.
The irony of academics - people who have little to no experience in markets - giving guidance to financial markets. It's absurd and speaks to the arrogance within the community about how right they think their modelling is. Yet anyone who has studied the Fed historically knows that they are usually wrong and in a big way. Just embarrassing. Druck hit the nail on the head, you're not rock stars and while they influence parts of the yield curve, they really have very little influence ultimately in a world where so many borrowers have locked in fixed rate mortgages.
President milei and Argentina new América 🇺🇸🇦🇷🍾🍺north América rip
Sucks that he sold his stake in NVDIA
This assumes his job is to manage monetary policy for the good of the country. Big assumption.
TRUMP STRONG !! like ManlyManPootin & Talibans & nate&Yahoo !
VOTE TRUMP/SANTOS 2024 ! THE ONLY LAW&ORDER CANDIDATES !!
The first time Joe Trump K hasnt interrupted a guest 1000x
Because Stanley is a legend in the trading/investing world, thats why he finally shut his mouth 😂
Is it just me or he looks like he's about to cry thorough the whole interview?
This guy’s speaking at .75 speed.
Play at 1.5x speed
He thinks b4 he speaks…….very uncommon today
Joe blah blah blah 36 seconds questions
What did he say? I fell asleep.
😅😅😅😅
Some old guy talking about stuff he has no clue about. cut the freaking rates!!!
@@wolverghost at the end of the day. That's what it will come down to. When they cut, tech stocks will tally like mad
Rally
Drunken miller indeed
The comments dont realize that the forward guidance helps the general public who do not have analysts who are paid multiple 6-7 figures to know whats next in the economy. Less information is not a good thing for us, but its a great thing for a BILLIONAIRE.
Good ol Stanley Drunken *hiccup* miller...
These clowns. Best thing you can do for our money is to stop watching these yahoos. News and opinions of others will cause you to lose money. Learn to trade. Pick no more than 2 thing that you trade. No more. Pick one or at most 2 set ups that work for you (positive expectancy over 10 trades). Use money managment (risk no more than 2% of your portfolio on any one trade), use risk / money managment. Learn when to take profits. Learn to wait, and most importantly learn how to lose correctly. Just because you lost money on a trade DOES NOT mean it was a bad trade. In fact the opposite could be true. Unless you are doing these things. You are gambling. If you want to gamble go to Vegas. I could care less what the Fed Does. I do care about how the market reacts to it. That is where the money is at. Just like earnings. I dont care about earnings. I care about how folks react to those earnings. Learning how to play the reaction correctly, and safely, and how to read price action on charts will set you free. Fundemental data and MACRO is very laggy. MACRO always wins of course but if you are early ... in this buisness you are wrong. Just follow price on a chart. It take years of practice, and you will lose money, but if you can get to the other side (96% don't) you are free. Secret is to lose small so you can get the experience you need to be successful. I mean it took years to learn how to run right? You didn't just go from crawling to running the next day did you? NO you had to learn every possible way there was to fall down. Then you were good. Trading is no different. You have to put in the work. If you don't and you are a lazy, not trying to time the market, set it and forget it 401k or IRA investor you are about to have your face ripped off.
Stanley drunken miller time!
Stanley sold his positions and lowkey wants a crash imo lol
I don't think one should blame the Fed doing the forward guidance. It's the people who really want it from the start.
"The people" don't even know what the fed does. Traders are the only people who care and we would adjust/things would be better if they'd stfu.
Ofc we should, did you even listen?
@@mark95pb do you really think I don't listen? Where did he say that from the start people demand forward guidance? Are you trying to mock me here?
Bitcoin is the numerator.
Nope
Stan is liar. He came on air last fall and cried about a upcoming recession all the while loading up on equities. Guess what, the market went straight up and he made money.
He wasn't wrong it's still coming..
@@durkdiggler4346 if he believes what he's saying, why did he load up on stocks?
Cut the rates before the entire banking industry collapses
Worst show on cnbc
Fire Joe
These people are out of touch. The working class is struggling like they've never struggled before. cut the god damn rates already.
This guy sounds like he THINKS he knows better than ANYONE out there but he's very biased and politics sounding which is a HUGE red flag on trusting his economical above imo
I traded during the Paul Volcker years. Everyone was afraid of the Fed. You would come into the office and the Fed would surprise investors with a hike in rates. Brutal!